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Peacekeeping and Foreign Aid in Conflict-Affected States

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Peacekeeping and Foreign Aid in Conflict-Affected States ABSTRACT The Intervention Nexus: Peacekeeping and Foreign Aid in Conflict-Affected States by Jonathan Kurt Simmons The continued deployment of uniformed peacekeeping operations (PKOs) and simultaneous commitment of foreign aid demonstrate the belief that these interventions are viable tools for generating stability in conflict-affected environments. However, there appears to be no concerted effort within the international community to design or employ of these interventions in a constructive manner. In this thesis, I argue that these independent interventions increase stability by targeting the two components of stability: the network of political, economic, and social interactions or behaviors that define a state, and a socially-defined oversight mechanism that attempts to restrain those behaviors within accepted norms. I also argue that variation in mission design affects the level of oversight a PKO generates and that higher levels of United Nations involvement will generate more oversight. Furthermore, increased levels of development- focused foreign aid applied under this higher level of oversight will create an interactive effect that results in higher stability. Rather than looking for success in those indicators that are specific to either intervention, I argue that investments made in the conflict-affected economy by foreign firms seeking profit and security of their assets (foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows) are a viable measure to determine changes in stability. By considering all states that have hosted a uniformed peacekeeping mission 1970-2013, I find that United Nations PKOs and higher levels of development-focused foreign aid have a positive interactive effect on FDI inflows. However, we only observe these results when we account for the time necessary for aid commitments to be utilized in the field and information derived through PKO oversight to affect policy decisions aimed at conflict resolution and reconciliation. The results provide more evidence for the value of international peacekeeping and link the efficacy of peacekeeping to that of foreign aid. The results also demonstrate the impact that these interventions have on international investments and open new doors for further research. Acknowledgments It would be difficult to attempt to name every individual who has offered some degree of assistance or advice in the completion of this research project. That being said, I would like to acknowledge my thesis advisor, Professor Ric Stoll, who kept me focused on my task and grounded in the principles of social science research. I would also like to express my gratitude to Dr. Lee Schwartz, Geographer of the United States, as well as Dr. Debbie Fugate, for allowing me to serve for three years as an analyst covering international peacekeeping operations, aid-related issues, and their policy implications. I arguably gained more knowledge and expertise on these topics during my tenure at the US Department of State than I could have by reading any book or article. I must also thank my friend and cohort member, Cem Birol, who tirelessly served as a sounding board for my ideas. I will humbly admit that I could not have even begun this journey without the full support, patience, love, and understanding of my wife Kimberly and my daughters, Rachel and Lillian; they have sacrificed more for my academic and professional ambitions than I could begin to detail in this short section. Finally, I must thank my father Ronnie Burns Simmons who always encouraged me to pursue my academic goals; it is to him this work is dedicated. Contents Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................... iv Contents ...................................................................................................................... v List of Figures .............................................................................................................. ix List of Tables ................................................................................................................ x Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1. An alternative framing of stability and stability-building interventions .................. 1 1.2. Foreign investor judgements of stability ................................................................. 3 1.3. Conflict-affected states vs. developing states ......................................................... 4 1.4. A limited understanding of stabilization interventions ........................................... 5 1.5. Why peacekeeping matters ..................................................................................... 8 1.6. UN involvement ....................................................................................................... 9 1.7. The way forward. ................................................................................................... 10 Literature Review ....................................................................................................... 12 2.1. Studies on Peacekeeping ....................................................................................... 12 2.1.1. Modern peacekeeping literature ................................................................................. 13 2.1.2. Peacekeeping intelligence .............................................................................................. 18 2.2. Extant Literature on Foreign Aid ............................................................................ 22 2.2.1. The good and bad of foreign aid .................................................................................. 22 2.2.2. Foreign aid in conflict and post-conflict scenarios .............................................. 25 2.3. Foreign Direct Investment - a proxy for success .................................................... 27 2.3.1. The economic enabling environment and investment risk ............................. 28 2.4. Summary ................................................................................................................ 29 A theory on increasing stability in conflict-affected states through intervention ........ 32 3.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 32 3.2. What is stability? .................................................................................................. 34 3.2.1. Stability in the abstract .................................................................................................... 34 3.2.2. A practical look at stability ............................................................................................ 41 3.2.3. A refined definition of stability .................................................................................... 46 vi 3.3. A theory on achieving greater stability in post-conflict states through intervention ................................................................................................................. 48 3.4. Why does the international community choose to intervene? ......................... 55 3.5. Choosing from the intervention menu ............................................................... 64 3.6. Targeting foreign aid to change behavior .......................................................... 67 3.7. Scrutiny, state behavior, and peacekeeping options ......................................... 70 3.7.1. PKO variety in action: a look at the first Liberian Civil War ............................ 71 3.7.2. Choosing levels of oversight .......................................................................................... 74 3.7.3. Building variation in PKO scrutiny ............................................................................. 76 3.7.4. Why United Nations involvement means greater scrutiny .............................. 76 3.7.4.1. Peacekeeping intelligence capability ................................................................ 77 3.7.4.2. Access to peacekeeping intelligence and sanctioning power ................. 80 3.7.5. PKO categories .................................................................................................................... 82 3.7.5.1. UN-led operations ...................................................................................................... 82 3.7.5.2. UN-authorized operations ..................................................................................... 84 3.7.5.3. UN-recognized operations ..................................................................................... 85 3.7.5.4. Non-UN operations .................................................................................................... 86 3.7.6. PKO composition options ............................................................................................... 86 3.7.6.1. Troops/police/observers ....................................................................................... 86 3.7.6.2. National origin and doctrinal foundations of peacekeepers ................... 88 3.7.6.3. Troop type ..................................................................................................................... 93 3.8. A nexus of effects: the impact of PKO-driven oversight on targeted foreign aid in increasing stability .................................................................................................. 94
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