MOVING MACEDONIA TOWARD SELF-SUFFICIENCY: A NEW SECURITY APPROACH FOR NATO AND THE EU 15 November 2002 Balkans Report N°135 Skopje/Brussels TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION: ......................................................................................................... 2 II. THE CONTINUING SECURITY DEFICIT: CAUSE FOR CONCERN ................ 3 A. LAGGING POLICE AND ARMY CAPABILITIES..........................................................................5 B. MACEDONIANS AND ALBANIANS VIEW THEIR SECURITY SITUATION AND THE NATO PRESENCE .............................................................................................................................7 C. EUROPEAN AND U.S. PERSPECTIVES ON MACEDONIA’S SECURITY........................................9 III. DEFINING THE MISSION......................................................................................... 12 A. PREPARING FOR THE EU HAND-OFF ...................................................................................13 1. The Six-Month Task Force Fox Transition .............................................................13 2. Consolidating Under NATO-KFOR-SMR Headquarters........................................13 3. Maintain Sufficient and Credible Force...................................................................13 4. Transfer, Train and Reform .....................................................................................13 5. Europeanise – and Get EUMM on the Border.........................................................14 6. Turn Macedonia into a Centre for Regional Security Cooperation.........................15 IV. CONCLUSION: COOPERATION AS MORE THAN LIP SERVICE.................. 16 APPENDICES A. MAP OF MACEDONIA ..........................................................................................................19 B. GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS..................................................................................................20 C. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .......................................................................21 D. ICG REPORTS AND BRIEFING PAPERS .................................................................................22 E. ICG BOARD MEMBERS .......................................................................................................27 ICG Balkans Report N°135 15 November 2002 MOVING MACEDONIA TOWARD SELF-SUFFICIENCY: A NEW SECURITY APPROACH FOR NATO AND THE EU EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS Macedonia’s 15 September 2002 election suggests communities remains palpable. Killings in Tetovo in the country may have turned a corner on the road to October dramatised the lingering danger of spiralling stability. Widely anticipated fraud and violence ethnic violence. mostly did not materialise. Unlike in neighbouring Kosovo a few weeks later, a cross section of voters Macedonia’s indigenous security institutions – both from all ethnicities streamed to the polls. They police and army – are weak and largely unreformed, elected a government that has embraced the relying on outmoded tactics that reinforce mistrust Framework Agreement brokered by the European while undercutting effectiveness. International Union (EU), the U.S. and NATO at Ohrid in August organisations are likely to have broad cooperation 2001 to end the incipient civil war and that has from the new government but many of the security pledged to manage inter-ethnic issues through programs they have introduced will take months (in consensus, not simply division of spoils, to overhaul some cases years) to complete. Meanwhile, the the scandal-plagued “Lions” security unit, and fight threat lingers that Macedonia could be destabilised massive, endemic corruption. by organised crime, Kosovo-based Albanian extremists, or election losers. While one should be wary of post-campaign euphoria, a certain optimism seems justified. Ali The real progress toward political stability and Ahmeti, the ex- rebel leader turned Albanian party internal security that has been made has largely been leader, has shown cooperation. Prime Minister possible because of unprecedented cooperation Crvenkovski has long accepted the political risks of between NATO, the U.S. and the EU from the early backing the controversial package of concessions to days of the crisis in 2001. That cooperation remains Albanians in the Framework Agreement. In an essential for the transition period that Macedonia has astonishingly smooth negotiation, the Social now entered. Specifically, a military presence such as Democrat-led Macedonian coalition concluded a NATO’s Task Force Fox currently provides is still power-sharing arrangement with an Albanian party indispensable. Largely manned and led by previously labelled terrorists and with whom contact Europeans, Fox is less than one-thirtieth the size of had been forbidden. the NATO force in Kosovo. It has contributed mightily toward establishing a “secure atmosphere” However, causes for serious concern remain. Large that has seen more than 90 per cent of those swathes of territory in ethnic Albanian dominated displaced by the conflict return home while areas remain beyond the control of law enforcement. enhancing the effectiveness of other international Not only are the population as a whole vulnerable, actors in Macedonia, including the EU itself and its but police also fear for their own safety. Organised Monitoring Mission (EUMM), the U.S., and the crime and a profusion of weapons, especially in Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe weakly controlled border areas, have left significant (OSCE). It intervened critically at least three times parts of the country at risk. Mistrust between ethnic Moving Macedonia Toward Self-Sufficiency: A New Security Approach for NATO and the EU ICG Balkans Report N°135, 15 November 2002 Page ii over the past year to prevent inter-ethnic incidents military force in the country until it can assume from escalating out of control. full and effective control and ensure law and order throughout its territory. Macedonia’s leaders have recognised both NATO’s contribution and their own security limitations. They To NATO: say clearly that they seek neither permanent 2. Keep Task Force Fox or a similar force in dependence nor creeping protectorate but rather Macedonia for six months or until the EU is continued interim assistance until full control and law able to assume the responsibility (whichever and order can be established throughout the country. period is shorter) in order to continue its The U.S. has been cool to extending the NATO confidence-building and trouble-shooting roles. mission, though only a handful of U.S. forces are on the ground and heavy U.S. engagement would only 3. Ensure that its highly effective Military Liaison be necessary in the most extreme case. Teams continue to be backed by extraction companies with adequate, visible firepower The EU wishes to maintain the international security sufficient to maintain their effectiveness and presence and to assume that responsibility at the invulnerability to challenge. earliest possible time. This would represent important 4. During the remaining short period of its and welcome further development of the European mission, concentrate also on the following tasks: Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) – a convincing demonstration that Brussels is serious about playing a (a) orienting the mission to support weapons larger security role while integrating not only collection, special police reform and other Macedonia but also all the Western Balkans into security-related and rule of law programs European institutions. The target has been 15 that lessen the likelihood of ethnic December, when the present Fox mandate expires. violence; However, while much progress has been made in (b) linking the mission to reform and accession overcoming the obstacles (mainly a Greece-Turkey programs by training Macedonian forces dispute that has delayed necessary agreement on an and then transferring appropriate tasks to EU force’s access to NATO assets), the 15 December them; deadline is probably too close. (c) assuming responsibility for the Military Whether through NATO or the EU, the international Adviser function now provided by a community needs to continue to help Macedonia senior UK military officer; during the transition period. NATO should, therefore, (d) working jointly with the EU or alone to remain for six months or until such time as the EU is develop Macedonia as a centre for ready to assume the security functions, whichever Regional Security Cooperation, in period is shorter. This would give NATO a set particular, to develop the Krivolak departure date while ensuring a proper hand-over. As military training facility as a centre for NATO draws down and the EU prepares to take joint exercises among NATO members over, the latter should also focus on complementary and, especially, candidate countries such tasks to demonstrate its increased commitment to as Macedonia, Croatia and Albania that Macedonia. In particular, the EU and NATO should are unlikely to gain membership at the act now in tandem to address the gap in border Prague Summit; and control – probably the most vital remaining security issue – by deploying and protecting a sizeable (e) working jointly with the EU or alone to EUMM contingent along the vulnerable Kosovo, expand its concept for a regional border Serbia and Albania borders. conference by establishing a