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READINGS IN EUROPEAN SECURITY READINGS IN EUROPEAN SECURITY VOLUME I WORKING PAPERS OF THE CEPS-IISS EUROPEAN SECURITY FORUM NOS. 1-9 FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG, CHAIRMAN MARC HOUBEN, KLAUS BECHER & MICHAEL EMERSON, EDITORS CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES BRUSSELS INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES LONDON CEPS and IISS gratefully acknowledge financial support received for the European Security Forum from the Boeing Corporation, Compagnia di San Paolo, the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company, NATO and SAAB. ISBN 92-9079-407-0 © Copyright 2002, Centre for European Policy Studies & International Institute for Security Studies. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior permission of the Centre for European Policy Studies or the International Institute for Security Studies. Centre for European Policy Studies International Institute for Strategic Studies Place du Congrès 1 Arundel House 1000 Brussels, Belgium 13-15 Arundel Street, Temple Place Tel: 32 (0) 2 229.39.11 London WC2R 3DX, United Kingdom Fax: 32 (0) 2 219.41.51 Tel: 44 (0) 20 7379 7676 E-mail: [email protected] Fax: 44 (0) 20 7836 3108 Website: http://www.ceps.be E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.iiss.org READINGS IN EUROPEAN SECURITY VOLUME I WORKING PAPERS OF THE CEPS-IISS EUROPEAN SECURITY FORUM CONTRIBUTORS DANA H. ALLIN ALEXEI G. ARBATOV NADIA ALEXANDROVA ARBATOVA VLADIMIR BARANOVSKY KLAUS BECHER ANTHONY H. CORDESMAN IVO H. DAALDER DMITRY DANILOV MARTA DASSÙ ALAIN DIECKHOFF EDWARD P. DJEREJIAN MICHAEL EMERSON NICOLE GNESOTTO DAVID C. GOMPERT CHARLES GRANT FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG MARC HOUBEN ROBERT KAGAN VICTOR KREMENYUK F. STEPHEN LARRABEE VITALY NAUMKIN ALEXANDER PIKAYEV TOMAS RIES KORI SCHAKE STEPHAN DE SPIEGELEIRE ANGELA STENT DMITRI TRENIN NICHOLAS WHYTE ANDREI ZAGORSKI CONTENTS PREFACE i MISSILE DEFENCE AND EUROPEAN SECURITY INTRODUCTION FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG 1 MISSILE DEFENCE: EUROPEAN APPROACHES AND INTERESTS KLAUS BECHER 3 RUSSIA AND ANTI-MISSILE DEFENCES ALEXANDER PIKAYEV 10 MISSILE DEFENCES: THE CASE FOR A LIMITED INSURANCE DEFENCE IVO H. DAALDER 16 THE MACEDONIAN CRISIS AND BALKAN SECURITY INTRODUCTION FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG 30 L’HEURE D’EUROPE – ENFIN ARRIVÉE? NICHOLAS WHYTE 33 MACEDONIA AND EUROPEAN SECURITY NADIA ALEXANDROVA ARBATOVA 42 SOUTH BALKANS CONFLICTS, NATO’S MISSION AND THE AMERICAN INTEREST DANA H. ALLIN 48 NATO ENLARGEMENT INTRODUCTION FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG 54 A EUROPEAN VIEW TOMAS RIES 58 RUSSIA’S ATTITUDES VLADIMIR BARANOVSKY 66 PRAGUE AND BEYOND F. STEPHEN LARRABEE 73 THE EU’S RAPID REACTION CAPABILITY INTRODUCTION FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG 81 A EUROPEAN VIEW OF ESDP CHARLES GRANT 85 MANAGING DIVERGENCE KORI SCHAKE 92 A RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE DMITRY DANILOV 98 THE WAR AGAINST TERRORISM AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE WORLD ORDER INTRODUCTION KLAUS BECHER 108 A EUROPEAN VIEW FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG 113 A RUSSIAN VIEW ALEXEI G. ARBATOV 120 AN AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE DAVID C. GOMPERT 128 RUSSIA’S SECURITY POLICY AND EU-RUSSIAN RELATIONS INTRODUCTION FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG 136 A RUSSIA -WITHIN-EUROPE: WORKING TOWARDS A NEW SECURITY ARRANGEMENT DMITRI TRENIN 140 EUROPE’S SECURITY RELATION WITH RUSSIA : STAYING THE COURSE STEPHAN DE SPIEGELEIRE 146 AN AMERICAN VIEW ON RUSSIAN SECURITY POLICY AND EU-RUSSIAN RELATIONS ANGELA STENT 155 THE ROLE OF EUROPE IN THE MIDDLE EAST INTRODUCTION FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG 163 THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN NEW WAR OF ATTRITION: A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE ALAIN DIECKHOFF 167 A RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE VITALY NAUMKIN 175 AN AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE ANTHONY H. CORDESMAN 181 EUROPEAN SECURITY AND DEFENCE POLICY: TAKING STOCK INTRODUCTION FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG 201 A EUROPEAN VIEW NICOLE GNESOTTO 205 CHANGES IN EUROPEAN SECURITY LANDSCAPE: A RUSSIAN VIEW VICTOR KREMENYUK 210 POWER AND WEAKNESS ROBERT KAGAN 217 IRAQ – IF OR WHEN? INTRODUCTION FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG 246 EUROPEAN PERCEPTIONS ON HOW TO DEAL WITH IRAQ MARTA DASSÙ 248 REFLECTIONS ON A POSSIBLE ACTION BY RUSSIA ANDREI ZAGORSKI 268 UNITED STATES POLICY TOWARDS IRAQ EDWARD DJEREJIAN 275 ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS 280 PREFACE he Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) joined forces in T2000 to launch a new forum on European security and defence policy in Brussels. The objective of the European Security Forum was to bring together senior officials and experts from EU and Euro-Atlantic Partnership countries to discuss security issues of strategic importance to Europe. treating both their European and transatlantic implications. This volume brings together the discussion papers commissioned from experts in Europe, Russia and the United States on the first nine topics tackled by the European Security Forum since its inception. Each set of papers is prefaced by an Introduction by the Chairman, summing up the main points in the discussion and highlighting unresolved questions. This collection of papers offers the reader a highly diverse and rich menu of urgent and important topics of direct relevance to the European interest in the short and longer term. It is hoped that these papers and the debate they have helped to stimulate will contribute to policy initiatives that mitigate the potential negative impacts of the issues discussed, while exploiting whatever good can be secured from them. The papers presented in this book have been written over a span of 18 months, from February 2001 to July 2002 – a period characterised by great strategic turbulence, if not epochal change. We not only witnessed the September 11th attacks but also the rapprochement of Russia and NATO leading to the establishment of the NATO-Russia Council at the Rome Summit in May 2002. Moreover, both the NATO and EU enlargement processes have built up a strong momentum and taken a well defined shape. The eight topics discussed here have had a special political relevance during this period. Missile Defence and European Security. Early in 2001, national missile defence was a particularly urgent and important topic in view of the advent of the new US administration. When President Bush placed missile defences at the centre of his security and defence platform, Europeans had reason to assume that this new technology would, in one form or the other, become an actual, rather than a virtual, facet of the US military posture. Since the Bush administration has not put forward a specific systems architecture, the challenge for America’s allies and partners – notably its fellow members in NATO, the EU and Russia – is to define what they believe can be the least damaging or most preferable outcome, and to seek policies leading to such an outcome. This challenge i READINGS IN EUROPEAN SECURITY was taken up at the first meeting of the Forum in February 2001, with contributions by Ivo H. Daalder, Alexander Pikayev and Klaus Becher. The Macedonian Crisis and Balkan Security . In the second meeting of the Forum in May 2001, attention turned to the Kosovar/Albanian insurgency and Balkan security. With contributions by Dana H. Allin, Nicholas Whyte and Nadia Arbatova, the debate revolved around issues of the utility and desirability of a direct and forceful military intervention, the role of transnational crime in the current situation and the question whether the international community had become part of the problem, rather than part of the solution. NATO Enlargement. In its third meeting in July 2001, the Forum addressed the decisiveness of NATO at 26 or 27, the possibility of Russian membership of NATO and the interaction between EU and NATO enlargements. Contributions were made by Tomas Ries, Vladimir Baranovsky and F. Stephen Larrabee. The debate revolved around the Russia position vis-à-vis NATO expansion to the Baltics. It was observed that the technical preparation of the accession countries was better due to the Membership Action Plan and that there were reasons to suspect that the new enlargement would be politically easier to handle than the first, precisely because of what did not happen after the initial round: no new “Cold War”, no “new fault line” and no “bankrupting” of NATO. The EU’s Rapid Reaction Capability. The ambitions of the European Union in the security and defence field are global. In its fourth meeting in September 2001, the Forum focused its attention on three questions: “What are the EU’s rapid reaction capabilities for?” “What budget efforts are required to give this capability substance, as well to keep under manageable proportions the ‘gap’ with the US?” and “How serious is the Turkish issue?”. With contributions by Charles Grant, Kori Schake and Dmitry Danilov, an interesting debate took place on the emerging division of labour between the US and Europe, access to NATO assets and the required capabilities to match the EU’s global ambitions. The War against Terrorism and the Transformation of the World Order. The unprecedented attacks in the United States on September 11th changed the international security agenda in many respects. It was therefore essential for the European Security Forum to address the issue at its first meeting after these events, in November 2001. Contributions were by François Heisbourg, David Gompert and Alexei Arbatov, who discussed the form, nature and substance of the war against terrorism but also the way international relations were impacted by these events. ii PREFACE Russia’s Security Policy and EU-Russian Relations. In the sixth