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The Initiation and Effectiveness of Multi-Coalition Peace Operations

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The Initiation and Effectiveness of Multi-Coalition Peace Operations ... The Initiation and Effectiveness of Multi-Coalition Peace Operations Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Caitlin B. Clary, M.A. Graduate Program in Political Science The Ohio State University 2019 Dissertation Committee: Alexander Thompson, Advisor Amanda Robinson Bear Braumoeller Copyright by Caitlin B. Clary 2019 ... Abstract After the end of the Cold War, the international peacekeeping environment changed dramatically. Among the changes was the development of a new model of peace opera- tions, in which multiple multilateral coalitions intervene to manage a conflict. Nearly half of the peace operations conducted in recent years have taken this multi-coalition form, but we know little about why interventions of this type are created, and whether these op- erations effectively reduce violence and provide lasting peace. This dissertation presents data on the 22 cases of multi-coalition, or \hyperlateral," peace operations that have occurred between 1990 and 2018. I present a new theory of the drivers of hyperlateral cooperation in peace operations, and the effectiveness of such efforts. I argue that states and intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) are interested in efficiently dividing the labor of peace operations when operational needs exceed what a single coalition is able and willing to provide. Additionally, I argue that motivations beyond operational effectiveness can drive multi-coalition involvement, including a logic of path dependence, and state and IGO interests in securing power and reputation. Dif- ferent types of peace operation providers have distinct comparative advantages, creating potential for intervenors to efficiently specialize based on their advantages. I argue that hyperlateral interventions are more likely to be effective when intervenors have comple- mentary comparative advantages. Furthermore, I argue that operational effectiveness depends on the level of communication and coordination among intervening parties. Ab- sent such coordination, intervenors may inadvertently act inefficiently, or even at cross purposes. To examine these arguments, I analyze a series of cases of hyperlateral in- tervention, tracing how involved coalitions came to intervene, how international actors influenced one another as interventions were established, and security outcomes both during and after intervention in each case. i Evidence from the case studies provides preliminary support for the argument that interests in the efficient provision of peace and factors related to intervenors' egoistic inter- ests motivate hyperlateral interventions. Evidence on the effectiveness of hyperlateralism is mixed. Complementarity and coordination of intervenor efforts are associated with the short-term provision of peace in several cases, but not uniformly. Furthermore, examina- tion of these case studies suggests no clear link between complementarity or coordination and the long-term prospects for peace in target states. This research, by examining how providers of peace operations influence and interact with one another, sheds new light on the politics of contemporary conflict management. ii ... Acknowledgments Writing a dissertation often feels like a solitary undertaking. In reality, though, the endeavor is characterized by interdependence. I am indebted to a great many supportive, smart, and kind people, whose influence has improved my work and my life in ways large and small. Each of my dissertation committee members { Alex Thompson, Amanda Robin- son, and Bear Braumoeller { has been a consistent source of constructive, kind, and thought-provoking feedback. I am particularly grateful to Alex, who has been making my work better for over six years, with characteristic patience, good humor, and all- around brilliance. In classes, workshops, offices, and hallways, the faculty and graduate students in the political science department have given me a great deal of feedback and moral support. I must particularly thank Aisha Bradshaw, Dan Wollrich, and Kyle Larson, who have been outstanding colleagues and steadfast friends. I am grateful to Zachary Peskowitz and Irfan Nooruddin for introducing me to the world of quantitative methods and to Janet Box-Steffensmeier for hiring me as a PRISM fellow. Thanks are also due to Skyler Cranmer and the rest of the NISS Lab, who have been excellent collaborators on a series of network analysis projects. The Department of Political Science at OSU funded my field work at the African Union, which gave me valuable insight into the real-world activity of that institution. I am grateful to the officials and consultants at the AU and the professors at Addis Ababa University who graciously answered my many questions, and to Chedza Molefe and Stephen Mayega at the AU Commission archive, who fielded my incessant records requests. iii My undergraduate education at the University of West Georgia made me a better student and a more rigorous thinker and writer. Among others at UWG, I am indebted to Greg Dixon, Greg Fraser, Mike Hester, Melanie Hildebrandt, Sooho Lee, Margaret Mitchell, Bob Schaefer, and the late, great Don Wagner. Greg Dixon in particular was generous with his time and encouragement, and deserves credit for sparking my interest in international relations with his brilliant and engaging lectures. I have been aided and encouraged by an extraordinary community of friends and family. I am especially indebted to Kait White Baer and Megan Bell, my confidantes and kindred spirits. My grandparents and extended family have supported and cheered me through years of academic pursuits, for which I am very grateful. I am also thankful to my generous and loving future in-laws, Kim and Scott, and to the extended Hamilton and Holmes clans. My partner, Luke, is an anchor and a light { his patience and support through these years of writing have been an incredible gift. Sharing life with him is a joy, an honor, and an adventure. Finally, I dedicate this dissertation to my siblings, for the jokes and unconditional love, and to my parents, who fostered in me the curiosity and determination that made this work possible. iv ... Vita 2011 . B.S. Political Science, University of West Georgia 2014 . M.A. Political Science, The Ohio State University 2014-present . Ph.D. Candidate, The Ohio State University Publications Li, Weihua, Aisha E. Bradshaw, Caitlin B. Clary and Skyler J. Cranmer. 2017. \A Three-Degree Horizon of Peace in the Military Alliance Network." Science Advances 3(3):e1601895. Fields of Study Major Field: Political Science Studies in: International Relations Quantitative Methodology v Table of Contents Abstract . i Acknowledgments . iii Vita......................................... v List of Tables . viii List of Figures . ix 1 Introduction . 1 1.1 Organization of the Dissertation . 4 2 The Origins and Forms of Hyperlateral Intervention . 9 2.1 Definitions . 10 2.2 Historical Context . 14 2.3 Hyperlateral Cases and Intervenors . 31 2.4 Conclusion . 39 3 Theorizing Hyperlateral Intervention . 41 3.1 Introduction to Literature . 42 3.2 The Efficiency Framework . 59 3.3 The Limits of the Efficiency Argument . 72 3.4 Conclusion . 79 4 C^oted'Ivoire Case Study . 81 4.1 Conflict Background & International Responses . 83 vi 4.2 ECOWAS Intervention . 91 4.3 Transition to United Nations Intervention . 94 4.4 Conflict Developments, 2005-2017 . 100 4.5 Conclusions . 105 5 Cases in Comparison . 112 5.1 Central African Republic, 1997-2000 . 114 5.2 Macedonia, 2001-2003 . 124 5.3 East Timor, 1999-2005 . 134 5.4 Chad/Central African Republic, 2007-2010 . 144 5.5 Conclusions . 156 6 Conclusion . 164 6.1 Overview and Findings . 164 6.2 Considering the Typology . 167 6.3 Future Directions . 173 Bibliography . 178 vii List of Tables 2.1 Hyperlateral Interventions 1990-2018 . 29 2.2 IGO Participants in Hyperlateral Intervention . 33 2.3 Ad-Hoc Coalition Participants in Hyperlateral Intervention . 33 2.4 Types of Hyperlateral Intervention . 36 3.1 Comparative Advantages of Intervenors . 62 3.2 Classification of Hyperlateral Intervenors . 65 4.1 Observable Implications . 84 5.1 Chapter 5 Cases . 113 5.2 Summary of Case Study Findings . 157 viii List of Figures 2.1 Frequency: single-coalition vs. hyperlateral operations over time . 13 2.2 Proportion of hyperlateral interventions, 1946-2014 . 14 2.3 Hyperlateral intervention locations, 1990-2018 . 32 2.4 Sequential hyperlateral intervention . 35 2.5 Parallel hyperlateral intervention . 35 4.1 C^oted'Ivoire case timeline . 82 4.2 C^oted'Ivoire ceasefire line and zone of confidence . 95 ix Chapter 1 Introduction A new cooperative model of peace operations was created when the Cold War ended. In this model, two or more separate multilateral coalitions intervene in the same conflict environment, either concurrently or sequentially, each deploying substantial num- bers of troops or police with the aim of providing peace and security. I refer to these multi-coalition operations as hyperlateral interventions. No hyperlateral interventions oc- curred prior to 1990, but in the intervening decades the model has become commonplace. In the present day, close to half of peace operations see the participation of multiple multilateral coalitions, but we still know little about why interventions of this type are created and whether they effectively provide peace. This dissertation sets out to address those questions. The international peacekeeping landscape changed dramatically when the Cold War ended. Multilateral
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