WEEKLY REPORT 6 – 12 November 2020

Key dynamics

US envoy James Jeffrey expects Trump-era policies to ‘continue’ ...... 2

Return of ‘counterterrorism plus’? 2

Turkey: Pragmatic response to Biden’s win? 2

Syrian government, former opposition fighters clash across Dar’a ...... 3

Former opposition forms unexpected unified body in Dar’a ...... 4 Ahmad al-Oudeh’s visit to Jordan 4

Turkish lira devaluation leads to price hikes on basic goods ...... 6

Northwest’s healthcare sector under threat of collapse ...... 8 Winter to bring more COVID-19 cases? 8

Cover photo: James Jeffrey, US special envoy to Syria, presides over a security council meeting on the Middle East and Syria in New York. Jeffrey is expected to retire from the post in November.

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US envoy James Jeffrey to leave and air support. It is therefore expected that post, expects Trump-era Biden will reaffirm Washington’s commitment to the SDF, following years of shock U-turns by policies to ‘continue’ Trump over the future role of the US in US special envoy to Syria, James Jeffrey, will northeastern Syria. Trump’s toing-and-froing, leave his post following President Donald stating that the US would withdraw from Trump’s electoral defeat to Joe Biden, US northeastern Syria, ultimately paved the way for president-elect, on 7 November. Secretary of Turkey’s incursion into a border strip between State Mike Pompeo stated on 9 November that Ain al-Issa and Tel Tamr in October last year. Jeffrey will “retire from his roles this month,” to While Trump later U-turned once again, stating be replaced by his current deputy, Joel Rayburn. that US troops would remain in the region to “protect the oil,” an unsteady status quo has Jeffrey reportedly told European officials this remained in place until today. week that he expected US policy towards Syria to “continue” regardless of who won last week’s By comparison, Biden is expected to step up presidential elections, echoing recent political, diplomatic and military support to the statements to the press in which Jeffrey said he SDF, and also make available resources to expected to see “no change” in either ensure that ISIS does not enjoy a resurgence. Washington’s troop presence in Syria or its Sanctions against Syrian government officials sanction policy targeting the Syrian government will remain in place. and its allies. Turkey: Pragmatic response to Biden’s However, the question remains of how policy will win? change once the new administration comes in Biden’s election win is therefore good news for next year. the SDF. However, both the SDF and self- administration remain vulnerable to internal and Return of ‘counterterrorism plus’? external threats, including internal tensions with While Biden is still in the process of forming his communities under its control – particularly administration, which will enter the White among Arab tribal communities in Deir-ez-Zor – House in late January 2021, observers are but also the changing calculations of the Syrian expecting a more stable Syria policy – government, Russia and Turkey. Crucially, there particularly when it comes to northeastern Syria. are still two months left before Biden steps into his role as president, meaning things could still Biden is said to be a strong proponent of an change. Obama-era policy known as ‘Counterterrorism Plus,’ referring to the use of small numbers of US Ankara in particular has been muted in its special forces working alongside local partners – response to Biden’s victory so far. With Trump such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – defeated and Jeffrey out, Turkey will lose a

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senior US official more sympathetic to its government and former opposition fighters. interests in northeast Syria when compared with These clashes were preceded by an his predecessor – Brett McGurk – who was unprecedented step by former opposition vocally, albeit pragmatically, supportive of the central committees to form a unified political SDF in its fight against ISIS, and was known to and military body, seemingly borne out of a have a strained, combative relationship with the recent visit to Jordan by the 5th Corps’ Eighth Turks. Brigade commander Ahmad al-Oudeh (as discussed below.) For now, Turkish officials may be trying to curry as much favor as is still possible with the outgoing president: recently, a representative of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), appeared to echo Trump’s false claims that Biden only clinched the election through widespread voter fraud.

In northeastern Syria, Turkey may try to enforce new realities on the ground while Trump is still in Former-opposition fighters close road in Mzeireb the White House, and before a less favorable subdistrict (Syria TV) president begins his term, leaving open the possibility of small-scale, localized military Government raids south of Dar‘a city offensives on SDF-held territory in the coming months. (In the past week, Turkish and Turkish- On 7 November, the Syrian Arab Army’s 4th and backed forces hit SDF positions near Ain Issa 15th Divisions deployed approximately 400 with artillery and clashed with the SDF near Tel fighters and 45 vehicles consisting of buses, Tamr.) Any limited Turkish offensive would likely machine-gun-mounted technicals and tanks to advance on either the Kobane or Ain Issa axes, in Dar‘a al-Mahatta, while Syrian government an attempt to seize areas of key symbolic and reconnaissance aircrafts were reportedly seen political significance to the SDF and self- flying over the city and its environs. Rumors administration. began spreading that the Syrian government was planning to raid areas in southern Dar‘a city in Syrian government forces, order to isolate them from the Ramtha border former opposition fighters clash crossing with Jordan (a short drive from across Dar‘a southern Dar’a).

Security conditions across Dar‘a deteriorated The next day, Syrian government forces raided this week, leading to governorate-wide road al-Shiyah and al-Nakhla, two agricultural areas closures and clashes between Syrian south of Dar‘a, arresting nine farmers and Dar‘a

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city residents in the process. During the raid, an unprecedented meeting that took place former opposition fighters and residents in Dar‘a between former opposition forces in the al-Balad closed all entrances and roads leading governorate three days earlier. to the neighborhood. Former opposition fighters later clashed with government forces in the Former opposition central committees Tareeq al-Sad neighborhood that separates form unexpected unified body Dar‘a al-Balad from government-held Dar‘a al- On 5 November, representatives of former Mahatta, rebuffing a 4th Division attempt to opposition central committees of western Dar‘a, enter Tareeq al-Sad that eventually resulted in Dar‘a al-Balad and Busra Esh-Sham the Syrian government firing four mortars into (headquarters of the 5th Corps’ Eighth Brigade) the neighborhood. met in Al Ash'ari township (Mzeireb subdistrict) However, clashes were not only limited to Dar‘a with the intention of forming a unified political al-Balad. In western Dar‘a, former opposition and military body to represent the south of Syria fighters reportedly closed off the roads leading as a whole. The representatives reportedly to Dar‘a city from Tafas, Mzeireb and Jlein discussed the formation of media, conflict (Mzeireb subdistrict), and took over the 4th resolution and legal offices as an initial step. Division branch in Masaken Jlein (Mzeireb The meeting is a significant development in subdistrict), capturing two military officers and Dar‘a. Leaders of the participating committees eight fighters. Meanwhile in eastern Dar‘a, have historically viewed each other with dozens of residents in Hrak township (Hrak distrust, meaning previous unification attempts subdistrict) protested government raids on have failed. However, a visit to Jordan by Al Dar‘a city, vowing escalation if the government Oudeh may have played a role in the meeting, continued. In Karak (Mseifra subdistrict), former forcing the respective committees to set aside opposition fighters attacked an Air Force their differences (with some help, namely Intelligence checkpoint in the town, killing two possible regional backing for the initiative and Al officers and three fighters while capturing six Oudeh acting as a representative back in others. This prompted government forces to fire southern Syria). artillery rounds into the town and send in soldiers; in an attempt to prevent a full-scale Ahmad al-Oudeh’s visit to Jordan offensive, the Eighth Brigade intervened, de- escalating the situation. In Sahwe (Mseifra On 30 October, media sources reported that subdistrict), former opposition fighters took Eighth Brigade commander Ahmad al-Oudeh over an Air Force Intelligence checkpoint. visited Jordan with his family. However, there is speculation that the actual purpose of the visit While the governorate-wide clashes seem to was to meet with Jordanian and Russian have occurred quickly and almost without delegations to discuss combating Iranian warning, one reason for the escalation could be influence in southern Syria and pushing Iranian

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proxies away from the Syrian-Jordanian border. (iii) The 5 November meeting of former The claimed purpose of Oudeh’s visit is opposition central committees took place after complementary to talks conducted between Oudeh’s meeting, meaning it’s possible that Russia, Jordan and Israel regarding a Russian- regional backing for the initiative (to increase managed buffer zone along Syria’s south and the influence of the Eighth Brigade as a buffer southwestern borders to shield both against Iranian influence) was granted, paving neighboring countries from Iranian proxy forces. the way for the central committees’ meeting.

Several developments point to a meeting with (iv) The 8 November raids on al-Shiyah and al- the Jordanians and Russians as being the case: Nakhla happened suddenly and forcefully: according to local sources pro-government (i) Oudeh’s visit coincides with the arrival of a forces requested air support during clashes with high-level Russian delegation to Amman, led by former opposition forces – which would have Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, to discuss the marked the first use of aerial weaponry in Dar’a upcoming international conference on displaced since July 2018. It is possible that this might have Syrians set to take place in Damascus on 11 been triggered by government forces and November. Iranian proxies’ perception of incoming (ii) Local sources had stated that Jordan had international and regional pressure that may limited movement through its border crossings limit their movements in the area in the near with Syria to approximately 100 vehicles per day future. with the aim of combating drug smuggling (v) The Russians reportedly refused pro- conducted by Iranian proxies. (Drug smuggling government forces’ request for air support, later by Iranian-backed groups and/or Syrian mediating negotiations between the Syrian intelligence agencies present near Syria’s border government’s security committee for the south with Jordan has been a longstanding concern for of Syria and former opposition central Jordanian authorities, although it is unclear if committees. The negotiations resulted in an smuggling has increased in recent months, agreement on the same day resulting in the prompting the recent border measures.) At the government’s withdrawal from al-Shiyah and al- same time, though, Jordan has repeatedly Nakhla, pulling back their reinforcements from expressed its concerns, along with Israel, Karak township, and releasing the detained regarding threats from Iranian-affiliated groups individuals while former opposition forces in southern Syria and their desire to have Iranian released detained government fighters and proxies at least 30km away from the Syrian- officers. Jordanian border.

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Turkish lira devaluation leads to the Syrian pound, which lead to markets in Idleb price hikes on basic goods in and west Aleppo witnessing a rise in the prices of basic goods and commodities, including bread, northwest Syria fuel and gas. During the months of October and November, The result of the currency fluctuation, and the prices in the northwest have been fluctuating on SSG pegging the price of bread to the Turkish an almost daily basis. This is attributed to the lira, has meant that bread prices have increased. fluctuation of the Turkish lira against the US Director of public relations within the SSG, dollar, which significantly devalued from Mulham Al-Ahmad, stated that the increase in October to November, roughly from 7.70 to 8.50 bread prices was directly attributed to the TRY per USD. depreciation of the Turkish lira, as well as the Areas under the control of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham increase in price of a tonne of flour from $275 to (HTS) and its affiliated governance arm, the $297. Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), switched to Other goods have been subject to price using the Turkish lira back in June as a mitigation adjustments. The SSG-affiliated WATAD measure against the continued depreciation of Petroleum company issued two different

Turkish lira and Syrian pound exchange rates (USD), July - November 2020

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circulars, one on 7 November and another on 10 24 was issued, banning the trading of the Syrian November, first increasing the price of fuel to pound for all but hawalas and monetary exchange 5.10 TRY per liter for imported fuel before companies falling under a certain categorization, decreasing it to 4.95 TRY after the currency and only in coordination with the SSG’s Public gained some value. Monetary Authority.

Communities have reportedly been caught in the Initially, citizens welcomed the introduction of middle of different (and changing) price lists, the Turkish lira as they saw it to be an answer to with local sources reporting on confusion and a rampant inflation of the Syrian pound, however lack of fixed pricing for goods and commodities with the current situation and continued for both consumers and merchants. Most of the depreciation of the lira, new challenges have goods in Idleb and western Aleppo markets are arisen with the local population stuck between imported, where the traders purchase goods in two unstable currencies. Further, local US dollars, and set the price in Turkish lira. administration’s response in controlling and monitoring prices has been absent, allowing In June 2020, The SSG introduced Turkish lira traders to hike up prices as they see fit. In into the local market as a means to mitigate the addition, civilians in the northwest, including economic crisis and the depreciation of the employees of the SSG, get paid in Turkish lira, Syrian pound. A month later, in July, Decree No. with its fluctuations directly driving down purchasing power. The Syrian northwest’s Price increases of basic food items, northwest Syria economy, including that of Turkish-administered areas, has been explicitly linked to the Turkish Food Price Price Percentage item 24/10 8/11 increase economy, and thus any economic downturn in (TRY) (TRY) Turkey is likely to have a negative impact on the Syrian northwest.

Cooking 7.5 9 20% Lira recovery unlikely to yield short- oil (L) term benefits However, since Monday 9 November, the Tomatoes 2.5 4.5 80% Turkish lira has appreciated significantly, almost (kg) recovering all the past month’s loss, now sitting at 7.71 per USD. Historically, there is usually a significant delay between downward price re- Pasta (kg) 3 6 100% adjustments following an appreciation. While inflation has been extremely sensitive to depreciation of the Syrian pound or Turkish lira Sugar (kg) 4.75 5.25 10.5% in Syria over the past 12 months, rarely has the

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reverse been witnessed in the short-term. To reduce the risk of further spread of COVID- Consequently, it is unlikely that the lira’s recent 19, the SSG has decided to suspend work at all recovery will transmit into any short-term price ministries, universities, schools, kindergartens deflation. and public markets for one week, until 13 November. Northwest’s healthcare sector under threat of collapse as The northwest’s health sector is suffering from the lack of the required support and equipment COVID-19 cases increase to face the pandemic, while international aid On 10 November, the Early Warning Alert and covers only 50% of the needs, according to the Response Network (EWARN) announced that Syrian American Medical Society. the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases Earlier, on 30 October, EWARN announced that across northwestern Syria reached 9,685 out of the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases 36,865 total tests, while the confirmed death toll among healthcare workers since the beginning reached 77. This marks a 58% increase in of the pandemic has reached 816, including 124 confirmed cases during November. doctors and 346 nurses, which also weakens the According to a statement from the Health local health sector’s ability to deal with pandemic Directorate in Idleb affiliated with the SSG, on 4 effectively. November, there were five hospitals receiving critical COVID-19 cases: Al-Zera’a Hospital and Winter to bring more cases? Carlton Hospital in Idleb city, Kafr Takharim The widespread outbreak of COVID-19 in the Hospital, Jisr ash-Shughour Hospital and Sham northwest coincides with the arrival of winter, Hospital in Dana Harim subdistrict. which usually increases the suffering of the civilians in these areas, particularly those living Local hospitals almost at capacity in camps. Poor humanitarian conditions will Capacity in all five hospitals is already under make it harder for civilians to follow pressure; there are a total of 79 beds available, precautionary measures, meaning it is likely with 59 of them currently occupied; and 48 there will be further spread in the coming weeks. ventilators, 10 of which are already in use.

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CONTACT Nicholas Bodanac Humanitarian Access Team [email protected]

The Humanitarian Access Team (HAT) was established in Beirut in March 2015 in response to the collective challenges facing the remote humanitarian response in Syria. Successful humanitarian and development interventions require a nuanced and objective understanding of the human ecosystems in which these interventions occur. To this end, the HAT’s most important function is to collect, triangulate, synthesize, analyze and operationalize disparate data and information. Since 2015, HAT analysis has provided a forward-looking template for international interventions in Syria, and facilitated an increasingly nimble, adaptive, integrated, and ultimately impactful international response to the Syrian conflict.