Mizuho Dealer's View EMEA emerging

14 Jun, 2021

Mizuho Bank. Ltd. European Treasury Department, London Mizuho Bank Europe NV (Amsterdam) AO Mizuho Bank (Moscow)

TEL: +44 (0) 20 7786 2500 Email: [email protected] Contents and Contributors

14 Jun, 2021 edition of Mizuho Dealer's View EMEA emerging currencies Page 1. Polish Zloty 3 This week's movement against USD Eri Kimbara, Amsterdam ( 4 Jun - 11 Jun ) 2. 4 Claire Marne, Amsterdam TRY 3. 5 Matthias Paschetag, Dusseldorf RUB 6 4. THB Emiko Sato Noordman, Dusseldorf 5. 7 MXN Jun Iijima, Paris CNH 6. 8

Jun Iijima, Paris INR 7. 9 Ekaterina Sheblova , Moscow CZK 8. 10 NOK Joseph McElhill, London 9. Chinese Yuan, (CNH) 11 RON Colin Asher, London 10. Thailand Baht 12 SEK Saba Zafar, London HUF 11. 13 Fumihiko Kanda, London BRL 12. Mexican Peso 14 Colin Asher, London PLN 13. Indian 15 ZAR Joseph McElhill, London 14. Turkish 16 -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% Colin Asher, London Source: Bloomberg

Page 2 Polish Zloty

GDP YoY : -2.8% Unemployment rate : 3.2% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report ) CPI YoY : 2.8% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 2.5% Eri Kimbara, Amsterdam 14 Jun, 2021 Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg Kindly note that there is no market commentary on these pairs this USD/PLN (LHS) EUR/PLN (RHS) 3.74 4.54 week the author is away from the office. 3.72 4.52

3.7 4.5 3.68 4.48 3.66 4.46 3.64

3.62 4.44

3.6 4.42 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg (%) Expected Ranges ( The week of 14/6 ) forecast mean (11/06 close) PLN 10 year bond yeild (LHS) WIG20 Index (RHS) 2 2300 Against US Dollars : - 1.95 Against : - 2250 1.9

1.85 2200

1.8 2150 1.75

1.7 2100

1.65 2050 1.6

1.55 2000 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021 Page 3 Czech Koruna

GDP YoY : -4.7% Unemployment rate : 3% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report ) CPI YoY : 2.6% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 3.6% Claire Marne, Amsterdam 14 Jun, 2021 Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg Kindly note that there is no market commentary on these currency pairs this USD/CZK (LHS) EUR/CZK (RHS) 21.05 25.55 week as the author is away from the office. 21 25.5 20.95

20.9 25.45

20.85 25.4 20.8

20.75 25.35

20.7 25.3 20.65

20.6 25.25 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg (%) Expected Ranges ( The week of 14/6 ) forecast mean (11/06 close) CZK 10 year bond yeild (LHS) PX Index (RHS) 1.8 1190 Against US Dollars : - Against Euro : - 1180 1.75 1170 1160 1.7 1150 1140 1.65 1130

1.6 1120 1110 1.55 1100 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

Page 4 Hungarian Forint

GDP YoY : -3.6% Unemployment rate : 4.2% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report ) CPI YoY : 2.8% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 0.1% Matthias Paschetag, Dusseldorf 14 Jun, 2021

Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg During the last week, HUF weakend ag USD (-1.1%) and ag EUR (-0.6%). USD/HUF (LHS) EUR/HUF (RHS) 290 352 Tue, Apr industrial production was reported with 59.2% yoy, up from 289 351 +16.2% for March, and missed expectations (68.9%) 288 350 Wednesday, May CPI figures were released as 5.1% yoy, lower than expected (5.3%) and on the same level as for April (5.1%), HUF 287 349 strengthened. 286 348 285 347 HUF ended the week at 287 per USD and 348 per EUR. HUF weakend 284 346 slightly. 283 345 282 344 281 343 280 342 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg Expected Ranges ( The week of 14/6 ) forecast mean (11/06 close) (%) HUF 10 year bond yeild (LHS) BUX Index (RHS) Against US Dollars : 283.00 - 291.00 287.00 287.69 3.3 50000 3.2 Against Euro : 345.00 - 351.00 348.00 348.23 49000 3.1 Most likely, HUF will still react to more general market factors and corona 48000 news trading with elevated volatility levels. 3 2.9 47000

No major economic news 2.8 46000 2.7 45000 2.6 44000 2.5 2.4 43000 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

Page 5 Romanian Leu

GDP YoY : -1.4% Unemployment rate : 5.1% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report ) CPI YoY : 2.2% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -5.3% Emiko Sato Noordman, Dusseldorf 14 Jun, 2021 Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg RON continued to move in a range against both EUR and USD but before USD/RON (LHS) EUR/RON (RHS) 4.07 4.93 weekend RON firmed against EUR but slid against USD. 4.928 RON started around 4.9221 against EUR and traded mostly between 4.06 4.926 4.9210 and 4.9250. However, after ECB meeting on Thursday RON began 4.05 to firm. Until Friday RON bought to a 1 1/2-week high of 4.9165. Against 4.924 4.922 USD RON opened around 4.0470 and stayed mostly in a range between 4.04 4.92 4.0350 and 4.0500. On Friday, however, RON lost ground and sold to a 4.03 level over 4.0600. 4.918 4.02 4.916 4.914 4.01 4.912 4 4.91 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg (%) Expected Ranges ( The week of 14/6 ) forecast mean (11/06 close) RON 10 year bond yeild (LHS) BET Index (RHS) 3.32 11800 Against US Dollars : 4.00 - 4.10 4.05 4.06 Against Euro : 4.90 - 4.93 4.92 4.92 3.3 11700 11600 RON is likely to move in a range against EUR and USD this week. 3.28 Romania's accelerated to 3.8% (YoY) in May. This is above the 11500 's (NBR) target of 1.5-3.5% but NBR is not expected to raise its 3.26 11400 policy rate soon. On the other hand, in the latest CVM report the EC 3.24 admitted that Romania made some progresses but the reforms were not 11300 3.22 yet really carried out. It should be clear for the government that the CVM 11200 will exist as long as the judiciary and corruption targets are not met. PM 3.2 11100

Citu hopes to finish the CVM this year and to join then the Schengen treaty. 3.18 11000 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

Page 6 Norwegian Krone

GDP YoY : -0.6% Unemployment rate : 5.2% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report ) CPI YoY : 1.3% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 1.9% Jun Iijima, Paris 14 Jun, 2021 Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg Kindly note that there is no market commentary on these currency pairs this USD/NOK (LHS) EUR/NOK (RHS) 8.45 10.25 week as the author is away from the office. 8.4 10.2

8.35 10.15

8.3 10.1

8.25 10.05

8.2 10

8.15 9.95

8.1 9.9 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021 . What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg (%) Expected Ranges ( The week of 14/6 ) forecast mean (11/06 close) NOK 10 year bond yeild (LHS) OSEBX Index (RHS) Against US Dollars : - 1.56 1160 1.54 Against Euro : - 1140 1.52 1120 1.5 1.48 1100

1.46 1080 1.44 1060 1.42 1040 1.4 1.38 1020 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021 Page 7 Swedish Krona

GDP YoY : -2.2% Unemployment rate : 7.9% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report ) CPI YoY : 0.3% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 5.2% Jun Iijima, Paris 14 Jun, 2021 Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg Kindly note that there is no market commentary on these currency pairs this USD/SEK (LHS) EUR/SEK (RHS) 8.36 10.18 week as the author is away from the office. 8.34 10.16 10.14 8.32 10.12 8.3 10.1 8.28 10.08

8.26 10.06 10.04 8.24 10.02 8.22 10 8.2 9.98 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg Expected Ranges ( The week of 14/6 ) forecast mean (11/06 close) (%) SEK 10 year bond yeild (LHS) OMX Index (RHS) Against US Dollars : - 0.5 2300 0.45 Against Euro : - 2280 0.4 2260 0.35 0.3 2240 0.25 2220

0.2 2200 0.15 2180 0.1 0.05 2160 0 2140 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021 Page 8 Russian Ruble

GDP YoY : -3.4% Unemployment rate : 6.1% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report ) CPI YoY : 4.4% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 2.7% Ekaterina Sheblova , Moscow 14 Jun, 2021 Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg USD/RUB (LHS) EUR/RUB (RHS) Last week, the ruble continued strengthening accross the board supported 74 91 by higher crude oil prices and expectations of agressive rate hike by 90.5 73.5 Russian CB. The USD/RUB dropped to its lowest level since July 2020 at 90 71.51, while the EUR/RUB refreshed its 2.5 month low below 87.00. The 73 89.5 optimism over upcoming meeting of the Presidents of USA and Russia 89 scheduled for June 16th assisted to the Russian currency while major 72.5 88.5 Russian exporters sold currency proceeds against the ruble ahead of the 72 88 summer dividend season, that put some pressure on the US dollar. 87.5 71.5 87 86.5 71 86 70.5 85.5 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg Expected Ranges ( The week of 14/6 ) forecast mean (11/06 close) (%) RUB 10 year bond yeild (LHS) RTSI$ Index (RHS) 7.4 1700 Against US Dollars : 71.00 - 73.00 72.00 72.08 Against Euro : 86.00 - 88.00 87.00 87.22 7.35 1650 This week, the ruble may be on downside as the market may enjoy some 7.3 profit taking after the latest rally of the Russian currency. CBR hiked the 7.25 1600 key rate by 50 bps last Friday as expected, that is yet another factor in 7.2 favor of the correction of the ruble after its strong growth. The market will 1550 also await the outcome of the US-Russia summit on 16th June. 7.15 7.1 1500 7.05

7 1450 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021 Page 9 South African Rand

GDP YoY : -4.1% Unemployment rate : 32.5% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report ) CPI YoY : 3.2% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 2% Joseph McElhill, London 14 Jun, 2021 Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg It was a highly uneventful week for the pair, hovering around the 13.60 USD/ZAR (LHS) EUR/ZAR (RHS) 14.2 17.2 mark for the majority. Manufacturing data for April missed expectations (- 1.2% MoM vs +0.5% survey) but no particular sell off of the rand was 14 17 witnessed. 16.8 13.8 16.6 13.6 16.4 13.4 16.2

13.2 16

13 15.8 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg (%) Expected Ranges ( The week of 14/6 ) forecast mean (11/06 close) ZAR 10 year bond yeild (LHS) TOP40 Index (RHS) Against US Dollars : 13.40 - 13.80 13.60 13.72 9.6 63500 63000 Against Euro : 16.40 - 16.80 16.60 16.60 9.5 62500 The only data to note being released this week is April retail sales, which 9.4 62000 are surveyed to have increase by 1.5% MoM. 9.3 61500 9.2 61000 9.1 60500 9 60000 8.9 59500 8.8 59000 8.7 58500 8.6 58000 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

Page 10 Chinese Yuan, Renminbi (CNH)

GDP YoY : 6.5% Unemployment rate : 4.2% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report ) CPI YoY : 0.1% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 1.8% Colin Asher, London 14 Jun, 2021

Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg RMB was largely rangebound between 6.38 and 6.40 over the week. While USD/CNH (LHS) EUR/CNH (RHS) 6.46 7.88 the PBoC has managed to curb the one-way RMB appreciation bias, 7.86 USD/CNH failed to return to above 6.4 handle. PBoC Governor Yi Gang 6.44 7.84 downplayed inflation risks throughout the year. He said he expected the 6.42 7.82 yearly CPI inflation to stay below 2%. 6.4 7.8 6.38 7.78

6.36 7.76 7.74 6.34 7.72 6.32 7.7 6.3 7.68 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg (%) Expected Ranges ( The week of 14/6 ) forecast mean (11/06 close) CNH 10 year bond yeild (LHS) SHSZ300 Index (RHS) 3.16 5400 Against US Dollars : 6.36 6.44 6.40 6.40 Against Euro : 7.78 7.98 7.88 7.75 3.14 5350 5300 CNH is expected range between 6.36 and 6.44 in the coming week. The 3.12 hard data on retail sales and industrail production for May are expected to 5250 moderate on fading base effect while growth momentum should remain 3.1 5200 robust . The PBoC is likely to leave policy unchanged 3.08 5150 3.06 5100

3.04 5050

3.02 5000 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021 Page 11

GDP YoY : -4.2% Unemployment rate : 1.9% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report ) CPI YoY : -0.4% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 5.7% Saba Zafar, London 14 Jun, 2021

Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg Kindly note that there is no market commentary on these currency pairs this 31.5 USD/THB (LHS) EUR/THB (RHS) 38.6 week as the author is away from the office. 31.4 38.4

31.3 38.2

31.2 38

31.1 37.8

31 37.6

30.9 37.4

30.8 37.2 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg (%) Expected Ranges ( The week of 14/6 ) forecast mean (11/06 close) GVTL10YR Index (LHS) SET Index (RHS) 1.88 1660 Against US Dollars : - 1.86 Against Euro : - 1640 1.84 1620 1.82 1.8 1600 1.78 1580

1.76 1560 1.74 1540 1.72 1.7 1520 1.68 1500 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021 Page 12 Brazilian Real

GDP YoY : -1.1% Unemployment rate : 14.1% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report ) CPI YoY : 4.3% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -0.7% Fumihiko Kanda, London 14 Jun, 2021

Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg BRL lingered at 6-month high level vs USD previous week. USD/BRL (LHS) EUR/BRL (RHS) On Wednesday data showed inflation in May recorded as much as +8.1% YoY for 5.4 6.6 the first time since 2016. The big jump from +6.8% in April was attributed to 5.3 6.5 gasoline price and electricity price and was regarded as a strong support for BCB 6.4 (central bank) to raise Celic rate on 16th June. But BRL has already been at its 6- 5.2 month high level so buying BRL appetite was limited. Among strong USD on 6.3 Friday, BRL dropped at 5.12 level against USD toward weekend. 5.1 6.2 5 6.1

4.9 6

4.8 5.9 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg (%) Expected Ranges ( The week of 14/6 ) forecast mean (11/06 close) BRL 10 year bond yield (LHS) IBOV Index 1120 132000 Against US Dollars : 5.00 - 5.50 5.25 5.12 Against Euro : 6.00 - 6.60 6.30 6.20 1110 130000 BRL would be subdued with global concern on COVID-19. 1100 128000 Market driver will be mainly USD strength related to central banks taper talks. 1090 Brazil leads COVID-19 case in Latin American area. In addition political/fiscal 126000 uncertainty cast further concern on BRL. Investors are keen to see how the 1080 124000 government manage to balance between stimulus and deficit. Strong GDP data 1070 122000 supports BRL and now investors are keen if BRL breaks 5.00-6.00 gauge vs USD. 1060 Celic rate decision on Wednesday is on focus. Market consensus is 0.75% hike to 1050 120000 4.25%. 1040 118000 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

Page 13 Mexican Peso

GDP YoY : -4.3% Unemployment rate : 4.3% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report ) CPI YoY : 3.5% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 2.3% Colin Asher, London 14 Jun, 2021 Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg The results of mid-term elections in Mexico helped lift the peso. Mexico’s USD/MXN (LHS) EUR/MXN (RHS) ruling coalition saw its majority in the lower house reduced, limiting 20.2 24.5 President AMLO’s ability to implement his agenda. MXN pushed as low as 20.1 24.4 19.60 mid week to its lowest since January before goving back the bulk of 20 24.3 the weekly gain in the USD rally on Friday. 19.9 24.2

19.8 24.1

19.7 24

19.6 23.9

19.5 23.8

19.4 23.7 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg Expected Ranges ( The week of 14/6 ) forecast mean (11/06 close) (%) MXN 10 year bond yeild (LHS) MEXBOL Index (RHS) 8.2 52000 Against US Dollars : 19.50 20.10 19.80 19.88 8 51500 Against Euro : 23.85 - 24.90 24.38 24.08 7.8 51000 It is a quiet week for data and the election fall out will likely remain a key 7.6 50500 influence on MXN. We suspect that MXN will revisit the low end of the 7.4 50000 recnet range. 7.2 49500 7 49000 6.8 6.6 48500 6.4 48000 6.2 47500 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

Page 14

GDP YoY : 0.4% Unemployment rate : 1.3% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report ) CPI YoY : 6.4% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : Joseph McElhill, London 14 Jun, 2021

Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg USDINR gave up all of its gains from the week prior, starting on Monday at USD/INR (LHS) EUR/INR (RHS) 73.4 89.6 the 72.80 level and closing on Friday above 73.00. Range is still limited 89.4 from lack of volatility across pairs. It essentially hasn't moved since the 73.2 89.2 beginning of March. 73 89 88.8 72.8 88.6 72.6 88.4

72.4 88.2 88 72.2 87.8 72 87.6 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg (%) Expected Ranges ( The week of 14/6 ) forecast mean (11/06 close) INR 10 year bond yeild (LHS) NIFTY Index (RHS) 6.04 16000 Against US Dollars : 72.50 - 73.50 73.00 73.08 6.03 15800 Against Euro : 88.50 - 89.50 89.00 88.82 6.02 This week we have CPI data due for release at 13:00 on Monday, and 6.01 15600 trade balance for month of May out on Tuesday at 12:30pm. 6 15400 5.99 15200 5.98 5.97 15000 5.96 14800 5.95 14600 5.94 5.93 14400 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

Page 15

GDP YoY : 5.9% Unemployment rate : 13.1% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report ) CPI YoY : 13.5% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -5.1% Colin Asher, London 14 Jun, 2021 Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg TRY rallied hard after week's of underperformance ahead of a meeting USD/TRY (LHS) EUR/TRY (RHS) 8.8 10.7 between President Erdogan and President Biden amid hopes that strined 10.6 ties can be repaired. USD/TRY dropped over 4% at one stage on Friday 8.7 but still closed the week down over 3.5%. The plunge in UST yields and 10.5 8.6 falling FX volatility also benefit TRY as carry (of which TRY offers plenty) 10.4 looks more attractive. 8.5 10.3

8.4 10.2 10.1 8.3 10 8.2 9.9

8.1 9.8 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg (%) Expected Ranges ( The week of 14/6 ) forecast mean (11/06 close) TRY 10 year bond yeild (LHS) XU100 Index (RHS) 18.4 1470 Against US Dollars : 8.30 - 8.85 8.58 8.39 1460 Against Euro : 10.15 - 10.95 10.55 10.19 18.2 1450 The main focus of the week will be the meeting of the Presidents Erdogan 18 1440 and Biden on Monday as both leaders attend the NATO summit in 1430 Brussels. Regardless of US relations, TRY's main problem remains the on- 17.8 1420 going political interference in economic policy. This week's gains look 17.6 1410 excessive and there is scope for TRY to renew the prior sell-off. 1400 Thursday's central bank meeting is expected to conclude with rates on 17.4 1390 1380 hold. President Erdogan is looking for a rate cut in summer. 17.2 1370 17 1360 17/05/2021 24/05/2021 31/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021

Page 16 Market Implied Policy Rate Source from Bloomberg Implied policy rates using OIS market (%) Implied rate change in 3 months time (%)

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 Policy Rate 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 3 years Americas Russia United States 0.13 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.17 0.32 Taiwan Canada 0.25 0.28 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 Mexico 6.50 5.68 5.35 5.38 5.69 6.35 Chile 0.50 -0.01 0.02 0.11 0.86 1.52 Romania Brazil 3.75 3.26 3.37 4.17 7.19 9.17 Japan EMEA Canada Euro Zone -0.50 -0.54 -0.57 -0.56 -0.56 -0.49 Uniterd Kingdom Uniterd Kingdom 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.12 0.25 0.31 Hungary Switzerland -0.75 -0.80 -0.79 -0.80 -0.75 -0.66 United States Norway 0.25 -0.18 -0.23 -0.29 -0.21 -0.07 Sweden 0 -0.19 -0.20 -0.20 -0.21 -0.08 Euro Zone Czech Republic 1.00 0.45 0.43 0.46 0.59 0.67 Switzerland Poland 1.00 0.45 0.33 0.30 0.46 0.62 Korea Romania 2.00 2.09 2.35 2.38 1.96 1.87 Sweden Turkey 9.75 9.94 9.51 14.65 10.70 12.11 Russia 6.00 6.27 6.29 5.94 6.25 6.32 Thailand Hungary 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.97 1.16 1.48 Norway Asia / Pacific Brazil China 2.20 1.63 2.04 1.89 2.24 2.63 Chile India 4.40 3.58 3.84 3.63 3.99 4.37 Czech Republic Korea 0.75 0.58 0.56 0.56 0.70 0.75 Japan -0.07 -0.02 -0.02 0.00 -0.03 -0.06 Poland Thailand 0.75 0.34 0.49 0.63 0.73 0.92 China Taiwan 1.13 1.34 0.82 0.40 1.78 0.71

Page 17 Economic Indicators (Quarterly data) Source from Bloomberg

(%) GDP YoY (%) Unemployment Rate 8.0 35.0

6.0 30.0 25.0 4.0 20.0

2.0 15.0

10.0 -

5.0 US

-2.0 India

Brazil

China Czech

Russia -

Turkey

Poland

Mexico

Norway

Sweden

Hungary

Thailand

Romania US

-4.0 Africa South

Brazil

China

Czech

Russia

Turkey

Poland

Mexico

Norway

Sweden

Hungary

Thailand Romania

-6.0 South Africa South

(%) (%) CPI YoY Current Account 16.0 8.0 14.0 6.0 12.0 10.0 4.0 8.0 6.0 2.0 4.0 - 2.0

- US

-2.0 India

Brazil

China

Czech

Russia

Turkey

Poland

Mexico

Norway

Sweden

Hungary Thailand

-2.0 US

Romania

India

Brazil China

Czech -4.0

South Africa South

Russia

Turkey

Poland

Mexico

Norway

Sweden

Hungary

Thailand Romania

South Africa South -6.0

Page 18 Economic Indicators (Quarterly data) Source from Bloomberg GDP YoY % (EMEA) GDP YoY % (Other EMs)

15 Czech Poland Hungary 20 Russia South Africa China Brazil Romania Norway Sweden 15 Mexico India Turkey Thailand 10 10

5 5 0 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19 0 -5 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19 -10

-5 -15

-20 -10 -25

-15 -30

CPI YoY % (EMEA) 25 CPI YoY % (Other EMs) 10 Czech Poland Hungary Russia South Africa China Romania Norway Sweden 8 20 Brazil Mexico India Turkey Thailand 6 15

4 10

2 5

0 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19 0 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19 -2 -5 -4

Page 19 Economic Indicators (Quarterly data) Source from Bloomberg Umemployment rate % (EMEA) Umemployment rate % (Other EMs) Czech Poland Hungary 12 35 Russia South Africa China Brazil Romania Norway Sweden Mexico India Turkey Thailand 30 10

25 8 20 6 15 4 10

2 5

0 0 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19 Current Account % (EMEA) Current Account % (Other EMs) 15 15 Czech Poland Hungary Russia South Africa China Brazil Romania Norway Sweden Mexico India Turkey Thailand 10 10

5 5

0 0 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19

-5 -5

-10 -10

Page 20 Commodities (Daily data) Source from Bloomberg Commodity price change % Oil Price vs Oil Currencies %

100% 50% Brent Oil Gold Brent Oil RUB/USD NOK/USD 80% 40%

60% 30%

40% 20%

20% 10% 0% 0% 29/03/2016 29/03/2016 -10% -20% -20% -40% -30% -60% -40%

Crude Oil Production % of GDP Economic Activities

US(LHS) China(LHS) UK(LHS) 100% 1800% 3,000 20 Saudi Arabia(RHS) Russia(RHS) Norway(RHS) Baltic Dry Index (RHS, USD) 90% 1600% Li Keqiang (LHS, %) 18 2,500 80% 1400% 16 70% 14 1200% 2,000 60% 12 1000% 50% 1,500 10 800% 40% 8 600% 1,000 30% 6 400% 20% 4 500 10% 200% 2 0% 0% 0 0 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 29/03/2016

Page 22 Onshore vs Offshore market (3 month swap points)

Source from Bloomberg Taiwan Dollar Chinese Yuan, Renminbi Brazilian Real (Pips) (Pips) (Pips) 700 - Offshore USD/TWD Onshore USD/TWD Offshore USD/CNH Onshore USD/CNY 400 Offshore USD/BRL NDF Onshore USD/BRL 600 350 -10 500 300 -20 400 250 -30 300 200 -40 200 150 100 -50 100 - -60 50 -100 -70 - -200 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Korean Won Thai Baht (Pips) (Pips) Indian Rupee (Pips) 1.00 14 Offshore USD/THB Onshore USD/THB Offshore USD/KRW Onshore USD/KWD 250 Offshore USD/INR NDF Onshore USD/INR 12 - 10 200 -1.00 8

6 -2.00 150 4 -3.00 2 100 - -4.00

50 -2 -5.00 -4 -6.00 - -6 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20

Page 23 Disclaimer

 These materials and the content of any related presentation are confidential and proprietary and may not be passed on to any third party and are provided for informational purposes only. Assumptions have been made in the preparation of these materials and any such presentation and Mizuho Bank, Ltd. (“Mizuho, London Branch”) does not guarantee completeness or accuracy of, and no reliance should be placed on, the contents of these materials or such presentation. Nothing in these materials or any related presentation constitutes an offer to buy or sell or trade and the terms of any transaction which may be finally agreed will be contained in the legal documentation for any such transaction, with such transaction being priced at market rates at the relevant time (the rates herein or in any related presentation being purely illustrative). (As a general rule you will not have a right to terminate early any transaction entered into – if you wish to do so, losses may be incurred by you.) These materials and any related presentation should not be considered an assertion by Mizuho of suitability for you of any transaction, scheme or product herein or therein. Mizuho has no duty to advise you on such suitability, nor to update these materials or contents of any related presentation. You must determine in your own judgment the potential risks involved in the transactions outlined herein or in any related presentation (taking professional financial, legal and tax and other advice) and whether or not you will enter into any transaction that may arise from these materials or related presentation. Nothing herein or in any related presentation should be construed as providing any projection, prediction or guarantee of performance or any financial, legal, tax, accounting or other advice. Mizuho shall have no liability for any losses you may incur as a result of relying on the information herein or in any related presentation.

 United States: US investors must affect any order for a security that is the subject of this report through Mizuho Securities USA Inc. (“MSUSA”). For more information, or to place an order for a security, please contact your MSUSA representative by telephone at 1-212-209-9300 or by mail at 1251 Avenue of the Americas, 33rd Floor, New York, NY, 10020 USA. MSUSA acts as agent for Mizuho International plc (“MHI”) for transactions in foreign sovereign and corporate debt securities and related instruments.

 Mizuho, MHI and MSUSA or their affiliates, connected companies, employees or clients may take the other side of any order by you, enter into any transactions contrary to any recommendations herein or have positions or make markets or act as principal or agent in transactions in any securities mentioned herein or derivative transactions relating thereto or perform or seek financial or advisory services for the issuers of those securities or financial instruments.

 MSUSA is a broker dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of FINRA. MHI is located at Mizuho House, 30 Old Bailey, London EC4M 7AU. Mizuho and MHI are authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the UK and MHI is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Mizuho, MHI and MSUSA are members of the Mizuho Financial Group.

Page 24 Disclaimer and Confidentiality (Mizuho Bank Europe N.V.)

 This proprietary presentation (the “Presentation) is given for general information purposes only and shall be kept strictly confidential by you. Until receipt of necessary internal approvals and until a definitive agreement is executed and delivered, there shall be no legal obligations of any kind whatsoever (other than those relating to confidentiality) owed by either party with respect to any of the material contained in the Presentation. All of the information contained in the Presentation is subject to further modification and any and all opinions, forecasts, projections or forward-looking statements contained herein shall not be relied upon as facts nor relied upon as any representation of future results which may materially vary from such opinions, forecasts, projections or forward-looking statements. In particular, no tax advice is given and you should ensure that you each seek your own tax advice.  You should obtain your own independent advice on the financial, legal, accounting, and tax aspects of any proposed solution outlined in this Presentation. You agree that you are not relying and will not rely on any communication (written or oral) of Mizuho Bank Europe N.V. including its foreign offices (“Mizuho”). Any such communication is prepared for informational purposes only and upon the express understanding that it will be used only for such purposes. Nothing in the communication (written or oral) of Mizuho should be construed as any form of advice, including investment advice as defined under the Dutch Financial Supervision Act (Wet op het financieel toezicht). Mizuho does not provide you with personal recommendations in respect of transactions relating to financial instruments. The communication of Mizuho is not intended to form the basis of any investment decision and does not constitute or form part of any offer to sell, or an invitation to subscribe for, hold, or purchase, any securities or any other investment, in any jurisdiction or under any applicable law.  You agree that you are not relying and will not rely on any communication (written or oral) of Mizuho as advice or as investment advice or as a recommendation to enter into any transaction, and that you are capable of assessing the merits of and understanding (on your own behalf or through independent professional advice), and should you enter into a definitive agreement with Mizuho, you will do so because you understand and accept the terms and conditions and risks (including but not limited to economic, competitive, operation, financial, accounting and tax risks) of such transaction. Mizuho does not in any way warrants, represents, or guarantees the financial, accounting, legal or tax results of the transaction described in the Presentation nor does it hold itself out as a legal, tax or accounting advisor to any party.  Nothing contained herein is in any way intended by Mizuho to offer, solicit and/or market any security or securities related product which Mizuho is otherwise prohibited by Netherlands, United Kingdom, U.S., Japanese or any other applicable laws, regulations, or guidelines from offering, soliciting, or marketing.  Any tax aspects of this proposed financial solution are non-confidential, and you may disclose any such aspect(s) of the transaction described in the Presentation to any and all persons without limitation. In particular, in the case of the United States, to ensure compliance with Internal Revenue Service Circular 230, prospective investors are hereby notified that: (A) any discussion of U.S. Federal tax issues contained or referred to in the Information book or any document referred to herein is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by prospective investors to avoid penalties that may be imposed on them under the United States Internal Revenue code of 1986, as amended (the “Code”); (B) such discussions are written for use in connection with the promotion or marketing of the transactions or matter addressed herein; and (C) prospective investors should seek advice on their particular circumstances from an independent tax advisor.  Mizuho may have acted as underwriter, agent, placement agent, initial purchaser or dealer, lender on instruments discussed in the Presentation, may have provided related derivative instruments, or other related commercial or investment banking services. Mizuho or its employees may have short or long positions or act as principal or agent in any securities mentioned herein, or enter into derivative transactions relating thereto or perform financial or advisory services for the issuers of those securities or financial instruments.  As previously notified and explained, and unless and until you notify Mizuho to the contrary, any non-public information provided by you to Mizuho will be maintained in accordance with its internal policies.  The interpretation of the Presentation shall, to the extent appropriate, be governed by Netherlands law and subject to the jurisdiction of the Netherlands courts.  Mizuho Bank Europe N.V., including its foreign offices, is authorised by De Nederlandsche Bank and subject to regulation in its home state the Netherlands by De Nederlandsche Bank , the Autoriteit Financiële Markten , and indirect supervision by the European Central Bank. In addition, Mizuho Bank Europe NV’s foreign offices may be subject to supervision by the respective host state regulators:  For Austria: The Oesterreichische Nationalbank together with the Finanzmarktaufsichtsbehörde;  For Belgium:de Nationale Bank van Belgie together with the Authoriteit voor Financiële Diensten en Markten;  For Spain: Banco de Espana together with the Comision Nacional del Mercado de Valores.  With respect to derivative transactions, documents presented to you and our discussions with you present one or a few of the possible ways of using derivative products. You should only enter into a derivative transaction and the underlying documentation/contracts (collectively “derivative transaction”) after you have obtained a sufficient understanding of the details and consequences (including potential gain and loss consequences) of entering into a derivative transaction. The actual conditions and terms of the derivative transaction that you enter into with a counterparty will be determined by prevailing market conditions at the time that you enter into the derivative transaction with that counterparty. Consequently, you should carefully review the specific terms and conditions of your derivative transaction at that time. You agree that the final decision to enter into a derivative transaction is solely yours and such decision was made solely at your discretion after you had independently evaluated all the risks and benefits associated with the derivative transaction. For derivative transactions where you may have a right or option to make a choice, your ability to exercise your right or option is for a limited time period only. If you choose to terminate or cancel a derivative transaction early, you may be required to pay a derivatives transaction termination payment to the counterparty. In the event that the creditworthiness of your counterparty under the derivative transaction deteriorates, a possibility exists that you may not attain the financial effect that you may have originally intended to achieve at the time that you entered into the derivative transaction, and that you may incur an expense/loss. Any derivative transaction entered into with Mizuho will be subject to its Terms of Business and the General Banking Conditions.

Page 25