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(2006) URANIUM MINING, PROCESSING AND NUCLEAR ENERGY — OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA? —OPPORTUNITIESFOR ANDNUCLEARENERGY URANIUM MINING,PROCESSING URANIUM MINING, PROCESSING AND NUCLEAR ENERGY — OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA? URANIUM MINING, PROCESSING AND NUCLEAR ENERGY — OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA? URANIUM MINING, PROCESSING AND NUCLEAR ENERGY — OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA? ISBN 0-9803115-0-0 978-0-9803115-0-1 © Commonwealth of Australia 2006 This work is copyright. The Copyright Act 1968 permits fair dealing for study, research, news reporting, criticism or review. Selected passages, tables or diagrams may be reproduced for such purposes provided acknowledgment of the source is included. Major extracts or the entire document may not be reproduced by any process without the written permission of the Secretary, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. The Secretary, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet 3–5 National Circuit Barton ACT 2600 Commonwealth of Australia 2006, Uranium Mining, Processing and Nuclear Energy — Opportunities for Australia?, Report to the Prime Minister by the Uranium Mining, Processing and Nuclear Energy Review Taskforce, December 2006. Design and layout by the Couch. ii Table of contents Table of contents Summary and looking ahead 1 Chapter 1 Introduction 15 1.1 Context of this review 15 1.2 Conduct of this review 15 1.3 Structure of this report 16 1.4 Australia’s involvement in the nuclear fuel cycle 16 1.5 Introduction to nuclear energy 16 Chapter 2 Uranium mining and exports 21 2.1 Australian uranium mining industry 21 2.2 World uranium demand and supply 26 2.3 Capacity to expand 28 2.4 Other nuclear fuel sources 30 2.5 Conclusion 31 Chapter 3 Conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication 33 3.1 Value-adding in the nuclear fuel cycle 33 3.2 Conversion 34 3.3 Enrichment 36 3.4 Fuel fabrication 41 3.5 Opportunities for Australia 42 3.6 Conclusion 43 Chapter 4 Electricity generation 45 4.1 Australian electricity demand 45 4.2 Electricity supply in Australia, current and future 46 4.3 The role of nuclear power 50 4.4 Economics of nuclear power 52 4.5 Conclusion 58 Chapter 5 Radioactive waste and spent fuel management 59 5.1 Radioactive waste and spent fuel 59 5.2 Reprocessing 69 5.3 Future prospects 70 5.4 Conclusion 71 Chapter 6 Health and safety 73 6.1 Introduction 73 6.2 Health impacts of the nuclear fuel cycle 73 6.3 Acceptable risk? 82 6.4 Health and safety performance 84 6.5 Conclusion 85 Chapter 7 Environmental impacts 87 7.1 Introduction 87 7.2 Climate change 87 7.3 Electricity generation technologies compared 92 7.4 Other environmental impacts 99 7.5 Conclusion 103 iii URANIUM MINING, PROCESSING AND NUCLEAR ENERGY — OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA? Chapter 8 Non-proliferation and security 105 8.1 Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons 105 8.2 Other elements of the non-proliferation regime 107 8.3 Challenges to the non-proliferation regime 108 8.4 Expanding the non-proliferation regime 109 8.5 Safeguards 110 8.6 Australia’s uranium export policy 112 8.7 Nuclear security 114 8.8 Conclusion 116 Chapter 9 Regulation 117 9.1 Australia’s international commitments 117 9.2 Australia’s existing regulatory regime 118 9.3 Overseas regulatory experience 122 9.4 Regulatory reform in Australia 125 9.5 Conclusion 126 Chapter 10 Research, development, education and training 127 10.1 International and Australian nuclear research and development 127 10.2 Education and training 131 10.3 Conclusion 136 Appendix A Terms of reference 137 Appendix B Taskforce members 138 Appendix C Submissions received by the Taskforce 140 Appendix D Consultations 144 Appendix E Site visits 146 Appendix F Chief Scientist’s expert panel 147 Appendix G Electric Power Research Institute — commissioned study 151 Appendix H Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) — commissioned study 153 Appendix I ISA, The University of Sydney — commissioned study 155 Appendix J Frequently asked questions 160 Appendix K Enrichment 164 Appendix L Nuclear reactor technology 166 Appendix M Biological consequences of radiation 186 Appendix N The Chernobyl and Three Mile Island nuclear reactor accidents and impacts 196 Appendix O Climate change and greenhouse gas emissions 209 Appendix P Non-proliferation 227 Appendix Q Australia’s nuclear-related international commitments 238 Appendix R Australian R&D, education and training 243 Appendix S Depleted Uranium 254 Acronyms and Abbreviations 255 Glossary 259 References 268 iv Summary and looking ahead Summary and looking ahead On 6 June 2006, the Prime Minister announced Many countries confront similar the appointment of a taskforce to undertake an circumstances and have therefore considered objective, scientifi c and comprehensive review the use of nuclear power for some of the of uranium mining, value-added processing and following reasons: the contribution of nuclear energy in Australia • the relative cost competitiveness of nuclear in the longer term. This is known as the Review power versus the alternatives of Uranium Mining Processing and Nuclear Energy in Australia, referred to in this report • security of supply and independence as the Review.1 from fossil fuel energy imports The Prime Minister asked the Review to report • diversity of domestic electricity production 2 by the end of 2006. A draft report was released and reduction in volatility arising from input for public comment on 21 November 2006 and fossil fuel costs; and was also reviewed by an expert panel chaired by the Chief Scientist (see Appendix F). The Review • reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is grateful for comments provided on the draft and subsequent effects on global climate. report by members of the public. The report has The world’s fi rst civilian nuclear reactor been modifi ed in the light of those comments. commenced operation in 1955. According In response to its initial call for public comment to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in August 2006 the Review received over 230 today there are 443 nuclear reactors operating submissions from interested parties. It also in 31 countries, producing 15 per cent of the conducted a wide range of consultations with world’s electricity. organisations and individuals in Australia and As a substantial holder of recoverable reserves overseas, and commissioned specialist studies (38 per cent of known low cost global reserves) on various aspects of the nuclear industry. and producer of uranium (23 per cent of global Participating in the nuclear fuel cycle is a production), Australia is well positioned to diffi cult issue for many Australians and can increase production and export of uranium elicit strong views. This report is intended oxide to meet market demand. There is an to provide a factual base and an analytical opportunity for Australia to be a participant in framework to encourage informed the wider nuclear fuel cycle given international community discussion. confi dence in the quality of our production processes, our sophisticated technology Australia’s demand for electricity will more community (although no longer with a than double before 2050. Over this period, signifi cant presence in the nuclear fuel cycle) more than two-thirds of existing electricity and the strength of our commitment to nuclear generation will need to be substantially non-proliferation. upgraded or replaced and new capacity added. The additional capacity will need Nuclear power has a much lower greenhouse to be near-zero greenhouse gas emitting signature than Australia’s current major energy technology if Australia is just to keep sources for electricity; namely brown and black greenhouse gas emissions at today’s levels. coal, and gas. Although the priority for Australia will continue to be to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from coal and gas, the Review sees nuclear power as a practical option for part of Australia’s electricity production. 1 http://www.pm.gov.au/news/media_releases/media_Release1965.html 2 http://www.dpmc.gov.au/umpner/reports.cfm 1 URANIUM MINING, PROCESSING AND NUCLEAR ENERGY — OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA? Key fi ndings of the Review • Since Three Mile Island in 1979 and Chernobyl in 1986, the nuclear industry • Consultations revealed support for the has developed new reactor designs which expansion of Australian mining and export are safer and more effi cient and produce of uranium. Skill shortages, government lower volumes of radioactive waste, and policies and legal prohibitions restricting has standardised its operating procedures. the growth of the industry would need to The future holds the promise of signifi cant be urgently addressed. further innovation. • The rationalisation of uranium mining • The challenge to contain and reduce regulation would ensure a consistent greenhouse gas emissions would be approach to environmental and radiation considerably eased by investment in nuclear protection, and the maintenance of high plants. Australia’s greenhouse challenge standards throughout the industry. requires a full spectrum of initiatives and its goals cannot be met by nuclear power alone. • Downstream steps of uranium conversion, The greenhouse gas emission reductions enrichment and fuel fabrication could add from nuclear power could reach 8 to a further $1.8 billion of value annually if all 17 per cent of national emissions in 2050. Australian uranium was processed domestically. However, high commercial • Many countries have implemented and technology barriers could make market straightforward solutions for disposal of low- entry diffi cult. Current legal and regulatory level radioactive waste. A national repository impediments would need to be removed, involving burial of low-level waste from all but there may be little real opportunity for sources including a future nuclear power Australian companies to extend profi tably industry is logical for Australia. into these areas. • Disposal of high-level waste including • Nuclear power is likely to be between 20 spent nuclear fuel remains an issue in and 50 per cent more costly to produce than most nuclear power countries.
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