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The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2009 with Particular Emphasis on Economic Issues The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2009 With Particular Emphasis on Economic Issues By Mycle Schneider Independent Consultant, Mycle Schneider Consulting, Paris (France) Project Coordinator Steve Thomas Professor for Energy Policy, Greenwich University (UK) Antony Froggatt Independent Consultant, London (UK) Doug Koplow Director of Earth Track, Cambridge (USA) Modeling and Additional Graphic Design Julie Hazemann Director of EnerWebWatch, Paris (France) Paris, August 2009 Commissioned by German Federal Ministry of Environment, Nature Conservation and Reactor Safety (Contract n° UM0901290) About the Authors Mycle Schneider is an independent international consultant on energy and nuclear policy based in Paris. He founded the Energy Information Agency WISE-Paris in 1983 and directed it until 2003. Since 1997 he has provided information and consulting services to the Belgian Energy Minister, the French and German Environment Ministries, the International Atomic Energy Agency, Greenpeace, the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, the Worldwide Fund for Nature, the European Commission, the European Parliament's Scientific and Technological Option Assessment Panel and its General Directorate for Research, the Oxford Research Group, and the French Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety. Since 2004 he has been in charge of the Environment and Energy Strategies lecture series for the International MSc in Project Management for Environmental and Energy Engineering Program at the French Ecole des Mines in Nantes. In 1997, along with Japan's Jinzaburo Takagi, he received the Right Livelihood Award, also known as the “Alternative Nobel Prize”. Antony Froggatt works as independent European energy consultant based in London. Since 1997 Antony has worked as a freelance researcher and writer on energy and nuclear policy issues in the EU and neighboring states. He has worked extensively on EU energy issues for European Governments, the European Commission and Parliament, environmental NGOs, commercial bodies and media. He has given evidence to inquiries and hearings in the Parliaments of Austria, Germany and the EU. He is a part time senior research fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs – Chatham House in London. Mr. Froggatt works intensively with environmental groups across Europe, particularly on energy markets and policy and helped to establish a network on energy efficiency. He is a regular speaker at conferences, universities and training programs across the region. Prior to working freelance Antony worked for nine years as a nuclear campaigner and co- coordinator for Greenpeace International. Steve Thomas is Professor for energy policy at the Public Services International Research Unit (PSIRU), University of Greenwich, where he has been senior researcher since 2001. Mr. Thomas holds a BSc (honors) degree in Chemistry from Bristol University and has been working in energy policy analysis since 1976. His main research interests are reforms of energy industries, economics and policy towards nuclear power, and corporate policies of energy industry companies. Recent clients include Public Services International, the European Federation of Public Service Unions, the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (USA), Energywatch (UK) and Greenpeace International. Doug Koplow founded Earth Track in 1999 to more effectively integrate information on energy subsidies. For the past 20 years, Mr. Koplow has written extensively on natural resource subsidies for organizations such as the Global Subsidies Initiative, the National Commission on Energy Policy, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Greenpeace, the Alliance to Save Energy, and the US Environmental Protection Agency. He has analyzed numerous government programs and made important developments in subsidy valuation techniques. Mr. Koplow holds an MBA from the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration and a BA in economics from Wesleyan University. Contacts Mycle Schneider Antony Froggatt Steve Thomas Doug Koplow Phone: +33-1-69 83 23 79 Ph: +44-20-79 23 04 12 Ph: +44-208 331 9056 Ph: +1-617-661 4700 Email: [email protected] E: [email protected] E: [email protected] E: [email protected] M. Schneider, S. Thomas, A. Froggatt, D. Koplow World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2009 2 Contents Executive Summary and Conclusions..................................................................................................................5 I. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................8 II.1. Overview of Operation, Power Generation, Age Distribution...................................... 8 II.2. International Nuclear Expansion Scenarios.....................................................................12 II.3. Overview of Current New­build............................................................................................14 II.4. Overview of Potential Newcomer Countries ....................................................................21 II.5. Status and Trends in Nuclear Manufacturing Capacities.............................................27 II.6. Status and Trends in Nuclear Competence.......................................................................30 III. Economic Analysis............................................................................................................................................ 40 III.1. Introduction...............................................................................................................................40 III.1.1. Problems of estimating and comparing nuclear costs .......................................................41 III.1.2. Generation III+ plants ......................................................................................................................42 III.2. The Determinants of Nuclear Economics.........................................................................44 III.3. Fixed Costs..................................................................................................................................45 III.3.1. Construction costs..............................................................................................................................45 III.3.2. Operating costs....................................................................................................................................61 III.3.3. Decommissioning costs ...................................................................................................................63 III.3.4. Lifetime...................................................................................................................................................63 III.4. Implications for Existing and Future Reactors ..............................................................64 III.4.1. Existing reactors.................................................................................................................................65 III.4.2. Reactors under construction.........................................................................................................65 III.4.3. Reactors on which construction has stopped........................................................................66 III.4.4. Future orders .......................................................................................................................................66 III.5. Nuclear Liability Issues..........................................................................................................67 III.6. The Subsidy Issue.....................................................................................................................70 III.6.1. Overview of subsidies to nuclear energy.................................................................................70 III.6.2. Common forms of support around the world........................................................................71 III.6.3. Subsidies to existing reactors in the USA.................................................................................76 III.6.4. Subsidies to the UK’s Existing Nuclear Power Plants.........................................................81 III.6.5. The Future.............................................................................................................................................88 IV.1. Africa ............................................................................................................................................88 IV.2. Americas......................................................................................................................................89 IV.3. Asia................................................................................................................................................93 IV.4. Europe..........................................................................................................................................98 IV.4.1. Nuclear Power in Western Europe .............................................................................................99 IV.4.2. Nuclear Power in Central and Eastern Europe................................................................... 108 IV.5. Russia and the Former Soviet Union .............................................................................
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