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Quantifying the Effect of Large Earthquakes in Promoting Eruptions Due to Stress Changes on Magma Pathway: the Chile Case

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Quantifying the Effect of Large Earthquakes in Promoting Eruptions Due to Stress Changes on Magma Pathway: the Chile Case TECTO-125661; No of Pages 14 Tectonophysics xxx (2012) xxx–xxx Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Tectonophysics journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/tecto Quantifying the effect of large earthquakes in promoting eruptions due to stress changes on magma pathway: The Chile case F.L. Bonali a,⁎, A. Tibaldi a, C. Corazzato a, D.R. Tormey b, L.E. Lara c a Dipartimento di Scienze dell'Ambiente e del Territorio e di Scienze della Terra, Università di Milano-Bicocca, Piazza della Scienza 4, 20126, Milano, Italy b Cardno ENTRIX Inc., Los Angeles, CA, USA c Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería, Volcano Hazards Program, Santiago, Chile article info abstract Article history: Four earthquakes with Mw ≥8 occurred in proximity to 60 Holocene volcanoes, in the Southern Volcanic Zone Received 27 March 2012 of the Andes (SVZ) since 1906. We analyzed these events by numerical modeling and field data to understand Received in revised form 12 October 2012 the key attributes of each volcano that may lead to a seismically-triggered eruption and the general mecha- Accepted 22 October 2012 nisms by which earthquakes could trigger volcanic new activity. We developed a new approach by resolving Available online xxxx the earthquake-induced normal static stress change on the magma pathway of each volcano instead of con- sidering the general crustal volume. We also considered other parameters that may lead to eruption, such as Keywords: Earthquakes magma chamber depth, magma composition and viscosity, local tectonic settings and volcano dimension. The Volcanic unrest dataset includes a total of 18 new volcanic activities following large earthquakes (15 eruptions and 3 minor Magma chamber depth increases in volcanic activity) at 10 volcanoes. Of these, 9 out of 18 events representing unrest occurred at Magma pathway volcanoes that had no activity in the five years before the earthquake. Results indicate that the static stress Unclamping changes were capable of triggering the observed volcanic phenomena up to a distance of 353 km from the Static stress change epicenter. Eleven out of 18 new volcanic events occurred at volcanoes with shallow magma chambers (2–3 km) under conditions of unclamping or very weak clamping. New activity at volcanoes with deeper magma chambers (>7 km) occurred only by magma pathway unclamping. Considering the regional tecton- ics of the SVZ, 5 volcanoes lying along strike–slip faults, 3 on thrust faults and 2 along a transition zone, ex- perienced unrest. Our results show that magma pathway unclamping plays a fundamental role in dictating unrest at volcanoes that are already in a critical state. These studies contribute to possible individuation of those volcanoes that are more prone to seismically-triggered eruptive events. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction and associated feedbacks might induce eruptions with a delay of days, months or years after the seismic event (Linde and Sacks, 1998; There is a growing acceptance that large earthquakes could trigger Nostro et al., 1998; Walter and Amelung, 2007; Watt et al., 2009). volcanic activity (Bebbington and Marzocchi, 2011; Delle Donne et al., With longer time delays, it can be difficult to discern a seismically- 2010; Eggert and Walter, 2009; Linde and Sacks, 1998; Walter and induced eruption from the normal background rate of eruptions. Under- Amelung, 2007; Watt et al., 2009). Linde and Sacks (1998) and standing the relative importance of the parameters that might control Manga and Brodsky (2006) identified a large portion of the earthquake-induced volcanism is of paramount importance if we are 1400-km-long Southern Volcanic Zone of the Andes (SVZ) where to achieve the goal of predicting this type of volcanic eruption. eruptions can be rapidly-triggered by large subduction earthquakes; In the present work, we evaluate these parameters by analyzing Watt et al. (2009) suggested that the eruption rate increased after the four post-1900, Mw ≥8 earthquakes of Chile, and the documented the two Chilean earthquakes of August 1906 and May 1960. The volcanic phenomena (Table 1) in the five years following each earth- above authors suggest a feedback effect between large earthquakes quake (Table 2) within a search radius calculated following Delle and volcanic eruptions mainly based upon two approaches: i) focusing Donne et al. (2010). We took into consideration the following attri- on the time-relationships between seismic and volcanic events, or ii) butes of each volcano: magma chamber depth, magma rheology, tec- the reconstruction of earthquake-induced crustal stress (dilation). tonic settings and dimension of volcanic edifice. We applied a new One of the main problems in assessing the real triggering effect of numerical approach to model the earthquake-induced static stress earthquakes is that the inherent complexity of the magmatic systems change by resolving it on the magma feeding system reconstructed at each single unrest volcano of the SVZ. This approach produces ⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +39 02 64482066; fax: +39 02 64482073. much higher resolution in the modeled static stress change in com- E-mail address: [email protected] (F.L. Bonali). parison to considering only a generalized crustal volume. 0040-1951/$ – see front matter © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2012.10.025 Please cite this article as: Bonali, F.L., et al., Quantifying the effect of large earthquakes in promoting eruptions due to stress changes on magma pathway: The Chile case, Tectonophysics (2012), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2012.10.025 2 pathway: The Chile case, Tectonophysics (2012), Please cite this article as: Bonali, F.L., et al., Quantifying the effect of large earthquakes in promoting eruptions due to stress changes on magma Table 1 Characteristics of the volcanic events at each volcano following the large earthquakes, including: volcano name, Type, SiO2 content of erupted lavas, distance from the epicenter, time-gap between the earthquake and the volcanic event, VEI of the eruption, amount of normal stress change (N.S.C.), activity in the five year before the earthquake (P–E activity), azimuth of the inferred magma pathway (M.P.) and depth of the magma chamber (M.C. depth), and volcano height. In light gray, the post-2010 minor volcanic events are represented. Data based on satellite images, SRTM90 DEM (srtm.csi.cgiar.org), Global Volcanism Program Digital Information Series (http://www.volcano.si.edu/gvp/world) and data reported in the literature (Hickey-Vargas et al., 19841; Hildreth and Moorbath, 19882; Tormey et al., 19913; Hildreth and Drake, 19924; Gonzalez-Ferran, 19955; López-Escobar et al., 19956; Tormey et al., 19957; Dixon et al., 19998; Déruelle and López-Escobar, 19999; Mamani et al., 200010; Naranjo and Haller, 200211; Lara et al., 2006b12; Varekamp et al., 200613; Maksimov, 200714; Rea et al., 200915; Reubi et al., 201116). Earthquake Volcano name Type Silica (wt.%) Distance (km) Time-gap (days) VEI N.S.C. (MPa) P-E activity M.P. (azimuth) M.C. depth (km) Height (m) First new volcanic events Valparaiso (1906) Tupungatito B+ 60.52 210 183 2 −0.052 N N22.5°E 7 − 101,2,3 2000 Valparaiso (1906) Villarrica A 52.04 − 52.715 712 262 ± 4 2 0.001 Y N47.5°E 2 − 31,3 2447 Valparaiso (1906) Nevados de Chillan B 66.6 − 67.68,9 432 319 ± 182 1 0.004 Y N140°E 2 − 31,2,3 1912 Valparaiso (1906) Llaima A − 16 632 319 ± 182 2 0.000 Y N62.5°E − 1,3 1925 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2012.10.025 52.04 52.71 2 3 F.L. Bonali et al. / Tectonophysics xxx (2012) xxx Valparaiso (1906) Cerro Azul (Quizapu) B+ 67 − 684 316 346 2 −0.052 N N8°E 7 − 101,2,14 2288 Valdivia (1960) Puyehue− Cordon Caulle B+ 68.9 − 70.0112 418 2 3 −0.512 N N135°E 2 − 31,3 2447 Valdivia (1960) Planchon− Peteroa B 63.05 − 63.1211 378 49 1 0.019 Y N0°E 2 − 37 2107 Valdivia (1960) Tupungatito B 60.52 543 54 2 0.008 Y N22.5°E 7 − 101,2,3 2000 Valdivia (1960) Calbuco B+ 55.76 − 56.486 504 255 3 −1.657 N N45°E 18 − 246 1803 Valdivia (1960) Copahue B+ 54.9 − 56.913 245 405 ± 182 2 −0.125 N N60°E 9 − 2010 1397 Valdivia (1960) Villarrica A 52.04 − 52.715 338 405 ± 182 1 −0.823 Y N47.5°E 2 − 31,3 2447 Santiago (1985) Tupungatito B+ 60.52 192 323 1 −0.035 N N22.5°E 7 − 101,2,3 2000 Santiago (1985) Llaima A 5216 605 1820 1 0.000 N N62.5°E 2 − 31,3 1925 Maule (2010) Planchon− Peteroa B+ 63.05 − 63.1211 210 191 2 −0.403 N N0°E 2 − 37 2107 Maule (2010) Puyehue− Cordon Caulle B+ 68.9 − 70.0112 522 462 3 0.002 N N135°E 2 − 31,3 2447 Maule (2010) Callaqui B >6015 251 674 1 −0.260 Y N55°E Unknown 1964 − 8,9 − − 1,2,3 Maule (2010) Nevados de Chillan B+ 66.6 67.6 161 3 0 0.122 N N140°E 2 3 1912 – xxx Maule (2010) Villarrica A 53.77 − 54.445 396 37 1 0.005 Y N47.5°E 2 − 31,3 2447 Other volcanic events Valparaiso (1906) Villarrica A 52.04 − 52.715 712 807 2 - - N47.5°E 2 − 31,3 2447 Valparaiso (1906) Villarrica A 52.04 − 52.715 712 1099 2 - - N47.5°E 2 − 31,3 2447 Valdivia (1960) Tupungatito B 60.52 543 348 ± 4 2 - - N22.5°E 7 − 101,2,3 2000 Valdivia (1960) Planchon− Peteroa B 63.05 − 63.1211 378 603 ± 15 1 - - N0°E 2 − 37 2107 Valdivia (1960) Villarrica A 52.04 − 52.715 338 1009 3 - - N47.5°E 2 − 31,3 2447 Valdivia (1960) Villarrica A 52.04 − 52.715 338 1380 2 - - N47.5°E 2 − 31,3 2447 Valdivia (1960) Tupungatito B 60.52 543 1534 2 - - N22.5°E 7−101,2,3 2000 Santiago (1985) Tupungatito B 60.52 192 1000 2 - - N22.5°E 7−101,2,3 2000 F.L.
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