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Geothermal Potential of the Cascade and Aleutian Arcs, with Ranking of Individual Volcanic Centers for Their Potential to Host Electricity-Grade Reservoirs

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Geothermal Potential of the Cascade and Aleutian Arcs, with Ranking of Individual Volcanic Centers for Their Potential to Host Electricity-Grade Reservoirs DE-EE0006725 ATLAS Geosciences Inc FY2016, Final Report, Phase I Final Research Performance Report Federal Agency and Organization: DOE EERE – Geothermal Technologies Program Recipient Organization: ATLAS Geosciences Inc DUNS Number: 078451191 Recipient Address: 3372 Skyline View Dr Reno, NV 89509 Award Number: DE-EE0006725 Project Title: Geothermal Potential of the Cascade and Aleutian Arcs, with Ranking of Individual Volcanic Centers for their Potential to Host Electricity-Grade Reservoirs Project Period: 10/1/14 – 10/31/15 Principal Investigator: Lisa Shevenell President [email protected] 775-240-7323 Report Submitted by: Lisa Shevenell Date of Report Submission: October 16, 2015 Reporting Period: September 1, 2014 through October 15, 2015 Report Frequency: Final Report Project Partners: Cumming Geoscience (William Cumming) – cost share partner GEODE (Glenn Melosh) – cost share partner University of Nevada, Reno (Nick Hinz) – cost share partner Western Washington University (Pete Stelling) – cost share partner DOE Project Team: DOE Contracting Officer – Laura Merrick DOE Project Officer – Eric Hass Project Monitor – Laura Garchar Signature_______________________________ Date____10/16/15_______________ *The Prime Recipient certifies that the information provided in this report is accurate and complete as of the date shown. Any errors or omissions discovered/identified at a later date will be duly reported to the funding agency. Page 1 of 152 DE-EE0006725 ATLAS Geosciences Inc FY2016, Final Report, Phase I Geothermal Potential of the Cascade and Aleutian Arcs, with Ranking of Individual Volcanic Centers for their Potential to Host Electricity- Grade Reservoirs Lisa Shevenell, Mark Coolbaugh, Nick Hinz, Pete Stelling, Glenn Melosh, William Cumming A Global Perspective of Volcanic Arc Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis Using knowledge from abroad to target US prospects October 16, 2015 Page 2 of 152 DE-EE0006725 ATLAS Geosciences Inc FY2016, Final Report, Phase I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This project brings a global perspective to volcanic arc geothermal play fairway analysis by developing statistics for the occurrence of geothermal reservoirs and their geoscience context worldwide in order to rank U.S. prospects. The focus of the work was to develop play fairways for the Cascade and Aleutian arcs to rank the individual volcanic centers in these arcs by their potential to host electricity grade geothermal systems. The Fairway models were developed by describing key geologic factors expected to be indicative of productive geothermal systems in a global training set, which includes 74 volcanic centers world-wide with current power production. To our knowledge, this is the most robust geothermal benchmark training set for magmatic systems to date that will be made public. All work discussed in this report was conducted within the 12 month period of Phase I of this project. These activities included data collection, evaluation, correlations and weightings, fairway and favorability modeling and mapping, prediction of blind systems, and uncertainty analysis to estimate errors associated with model predictions. The project consisted of a large data compilation and collection effort using existing digital databases and data entry from hundreds of published sources. Data plots and summaries were constructed to evaluate trends, correlations and assign both data-driven and expert-driven weighting factors to individual data types. These weighting factors were included in the numerical modeling of the probability of encountering a productive geothermal system at each of the 100 volcanic centers in the Cascade and Aleutian volcanic arcs. Other data types that may be important were not available in this project. A worldwide geothermal well database was identified but was not available within the budget of the current project. Inclusion of well deliverabilities and lithologies in this database have the potential to improve this fairway analysis. Similarly, a lack of available fumarole gas geothermometry limited predictive capabilities in some areas, and increased sharing of that data would help improve model accuracies. The project team modeled play fairways, geothermal favorabilities, and associated errors/uncertainties, and combined them to produce fairway and favorability models. The favorability model was used to modify play fairway results by incorporating direct evidence from springs, wells and surface manifestations. The models provide probabilities of occurrence of power-grade geothermal systems using relationships among structure, tectonics, volcanology, fluid geochemistry and surface manifestations. The model results include a ranking of all 100 sites and a determination of which sites are most prospective, and which are best suited for more detailed direct data collection based on geopolitical criteria. All results are presented in table and map format, noting development constraints associated with each volcanic center based on land classification and transmission issues. Page 3 of 152 DE-EE0006725 ATLAS Geosciences Inc FY2016, Final Report, Phase I Among many tested relationships, five main correlations between geothermal production and geological parameters have been identified and/or clarified during the study. These are: 1) production potential is positively correlated with extensional and transtensional environments and less well correlated with more compressive environments, based on both world-wide and local assessments of stress and strain; 2) production potential increases where the relative plate motion angle of obliqueness (and/or arc-parallel velocity of the under-riding plate) is relatively high; 3) production is greater in systems hosted by Pleistocene calderas relative to Holocene calderas or non-caldera-hosted systems; 4) favorable predictors of geothermal potential include high Quaternary fault scarp densities and high slip rates on faults, and; 5) extensional structural settings favor electrical production, including pull-aparts, step-overs, accommodation zones, and displacement transfer zones. These relationships are used to define a comprehensive list of structural play fairway types. Several criteria were tested but not used in the analysis in the Cascades or Aleutians because of a lack of correlation with geothermal production. These included criteria widely expected to be correlated with production, including the volume of volcanic rock in each center, the presence and number of domes and other flank vents, eruptive chemistry and the recency of eruptive activity. These criteria turned out to not have a significant correlation. Correlated and uncorrelated criteria in this study will provide guidance for geothermal exploration efforts worldwide. The project has clearly defined relative favorabilities along the Cascade and Aleutian arcs. The best fairway potential in the Cascades lies near its southern end where extensional processes related to Basin and Range extension overlap the heat corridor of the Cascade arc. In the Aleutians, the geothermal fairway improves noticeably west of the transition from continental to oceanic crust near Akutan and Makushin; such an improvement in favorabilities is related to more complex structural settings that may in turn be related to more complex deformational processes associated with changes in crustal rheologies. Four sites in the Cascades (Lassen, Newberry, Olallie Butte, and Shasta) show probabilities of >25% based on favorability model results, with Lassen and parts of Shasta being unavailable for development based on land use designations. Six of the centers in the Aleutians (Akutan, Makushin, Recheschnoi, Little Sitkin, Korovin, and Adagdak) have probabilities >25%, with all nominally available for development based on land status considerations. Although these and many other Aleutian volcanic centers could be developable based on technical considerations, most will likely not be developed unless/until market and/or population dynamics change (except for at Akutan, which is currently being evaluated in other projects, Makushin, and possibly Korovin, each of which have small population bases and industries to support a power market). Most of the other Aleutians volcanic centers are remote with no population or access to transmission. Page 4 of 152 DE-EE0006725 ATLAS Geosciences Inc FY2016, Final Report, Phase I Average scores in the fairway model for the Cascades and Aleutians are similar to the average scores calculated for producing volcanic arc centers outside the U.S. However, geothermal power plants and thermal manifestations indicative of potential for geothermal production are more common in the arcs outside the U.S. Since 2 or possibly 3 volcanic centers in the Cascades (Lassen, Medicine Lake, and possibly Meager) could produce electrical energy under more favorable market circumstances, and if 2-3 systems in the Aleutians are likely power-capable (e.g., Akutan, Makushin) but haven’t been developed because of remoteness and/or cost, then approximately 5% of the volcanic centers in both the Cascades and Aleutians could be considered developable based on known data. This is less than the world arc average of 10% of centers that are either producing electricity or have been shown to be power-capable. The discrepancy between the fairway scores in the U.S. and the relative lack of direct evidence of hydrothermal activity in the U.S. arcs suggests that either there are more blind systems or that important conceptual issues are not constrained in the current analysis.
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