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Regime Change Without Military Force: Lessons from Overthrowing Milosevic

By Gregory L. Schulte

“Gotov je!” (“He’s finished!”) —Serb resistance slogan, directed at Milosevic

fter a decade of war in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Obama Administration has adopted a new defense strategy that recognizes the need to limit our strategic ends in an era of increasing A limits on our military means.1 The strategy calls for armed forces capable of conducting a broad range of missions, in a full range of contingencies, and in a global context that is increasingly complex. It calls for doing so with a smaller defense budget. Opportunities for savings come from reducing the ability to fight two regional conflicts simultaneously and from not sizing the force to conduct prolonged, large-scale stability operations. Seemingly missing from the new defense strategy are the types of wars we fought in Afghanistan and Iraq. Both started with forcible changes in regime – the armed ouster of the Taliban and Saddam Hussein from their positions of power. In each case, the rapid removal of leadership was followed by lengthy counterinsurgency operations to bring security to the population and build up a new govern- ment. The duration and difficulty of these operations and their cost in deaths, destruction, and debt were not understood at their outset. Whereas past defense strategies foresaw the prospect of forcible regime change,2 the new defense strategy does not. Thus, absent a direct threat to U.S. vital interests, any future endeavors to oust unfriendly leaders are likely to be pursued by non-military means. U.S. military forces may play a supporting role at most. Libya and Syria demonstrate the new defense strategy in action. While regime change has been an objective, the has worked through partners and limited or ruled out the use of military force.

Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte recently joined the faculty of the National War College in Washington, DC. He was a Special Assistant to the President on the staff of the National Security Council during the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic.

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If U.S. policymakers consider non-military Milosevic was weakened, his political legitimacy regime change in the future, they may wish to tarnished at home and abroad. look for lessons learned before Afghanistan and Milosevic’s confrontation with the UN and Iraq, lessons learned from the 2000 overthrow NATO isolated him internationally. He also faced of Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic. While the growing opposition domestically. In September circumstances were unique and perhaps uniquely 1999, opposition rallies in twenty cities in Serbia favorable to a democratic transition, many of the urged Milosevic to resign. The police and army lessons are probably enduring. cracked down, but Milosevic’s regime had dif- ficulty suppressing opposition leaders and the Deposing a Dictator3 student movement OTPOR – Serbian for “resis- In 2000, Slobodan Milosevic, then president tance.” OTPOR, a loosely organized network of of what remained of the Federal Republic of activists trained in peaceful resistance, used a vari- Yugoslavia,4 set the stage for his own demise. He ety of nonviolent tactics to excoriate the regime did so by calling for elections, seeking to bolster and build popular support. his legitimacy at home and abroad, while miscal- In January 2000, OTPOR organized an culating his own ability to fix the results. Orthodox New Year’s Eve rally against Milosevic’s rule. In April, 100,000 citizens of Serbia gathered despite instigating ethnic violence and genocide in to call for early presidential elections. in Bosnia and Croatia in the early 1990s, he had In May, Serbian opposition parties, despite a emerged unscathed as leader of Serbia history of fragmentation and in-fighting, united under the Democratic Opposition of Serbia. They put forward a single candidate for the elections: Personally and politically, Milosevic had Vojislav Kostunica. survived North Atlantic Treaty Organization In July, Milosevic made his mistake, (NATO) Operation Allied Force, 78 days of air announcing early elections in September. strikes against Serbia and its forces in Kosovo Milosevic probably gambled that he could con- the year before. While longer than the United trol the media, divide the opposition, and deny States or its allies anticipated, the campaign of them time to organize and build support. He military strikes and non-military measures ulti- probably also gambled on stuffing the ballot mately succeeded, compelling Milosevic to halt boxes, particularly those coming over the border ethnic cleansing in Kosovo, withdraw Serb secu- from Kosovo, still nominally part of the Yugoslav rity forces, and consent to the introduction of republic. a UN administration and NATO-led force, but The democratic opposition of Serbia stayed leaving Milosevic in place. united. In August, OTPOR launched a country- Milosevic was a survivor. Despite insti- wide campaign dubbed “Gotov je!” – “He’s fin- gating ethnic violence and genocide in Bosnia ished!” Volunteers pasted “Gotov je!” stickers and Croatia in the early 1990s, he had emerged across Serbia, including over Milosevic’s cam- unscathed as leader of Serbia and signatory of paign posters. the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords. Many analysts For the September elections, OTPOR and predicted that the 1999 NATO air strikes would the opposition recruited, trained, and organized cement Milosevic’s grip on power. Instead, more than 30,000 volunteers to monitor the

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Milosevic’s death precluded justice, but his removal from power set the stage for bringing to Serbia and bringing Serbia back into Europe. While NATO’s relations with were severely strained, the interests of the Serb people, the region, and the United States and its allies were well served. Supporting the Overthrow

DoD photo by Senior Airman Sean Worrell, Worrell, Airman Sean Senior DoD photo by (released) Air Force U.S. The people of Serbia ousted Milosevic, but Former President Bill Clinton speaks to American, British, and French troops deployed to Skopje, they had help. Even before NATO’s air strikes, Macedonia, on June 22, 1999. Many of the troop will President Clinton and his foreign policy team become part of KFOR. had decided that Slobodan Milosevic, while a vote. The United Nations (UN) and NATO col- signatory of the Dayton Peace Accords for Bosnia, laborated to interdict stuffed ballot boxes coming was an obstacle to peace throughout the region. from Kosovo. When the observers announced the In September 1998, in the face of anti-Albanian victory of Kostunica, the Milosevic-controlled violence in Kosovo instigated by Milosevic, Federal Election Commission called for a run- the U.S. Administration agreed to develop and off. A united opposition refused and called for implement a strategy to weaken his rule. a general strike. In December 1998, the basic strategy was In October, coal miners – previously among approved. The first element was to strengthen Milosevic’s strongest supporters – went on strike democratic forces in Serbia, including the and then led a march on Belgrade, using a bull- political opposition, student movements, and dozer to push away barricades. Serbia’s police independent media. The second element was and military, in contact with the opposition, to bolster President Djukanovic of neighboring refused to intervene. It seemed that Milosevic Montenegro, an increasingly independent prov- had passed the tipping point that all despots fear: ince of the federal republic, as a counterweight to when the regime fears the people more than the Milosevic. The third element was to undermine people fear the regime. Milosevic’s pillars of power. These were identified Milosevic acknowledged defeat on October as his security services, finances, and control of 6 after a private meeting with the Russian foreign the media. minister. Standing before the television cameras, This basic strategy, adapted as necessary Milosevic looked stunned. His self-confidence to changing circumstance, remained in place shattered, he was finished. “Gotov je!” had gone through the 1999 air campaign, which helped from slogan to reality. set the conditions for Milosevic’s removal, and Under international pressure, the Serbian through 2000, when Milosevic was removed government arrested Milosevic in April 2001, and from power. then extradited him to The Hague to be tried for Setting the Conditions war crimes before an international tribunal. The “Butcher of the Balkans” died of a heart attack NATO’s air campaign, initiated in March 1999, before his trial could conclude. was aimed at protecting the Albanian population

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in Kosovo, not at toppling Milosevic. In April, by diplomatic efforts, economic sanctions, and with Milosevic refusing to meet NATO demands, information operations designed to isolate the Administration agreed to a strengthened Milosevic and undermine his pillars of support. effort to support his removal. In a major address, A “Ring Around Serbia” of radio stations broad- President Clinton publically called for a “demo- cast truthful information into the country, under- cratic transition in Serbia, for the region’s democ- cutting Milosevic’s efforts to squash reports of racies will never be safe with a belligerent tyranny defeats and defections. NATO aircraft dropped in their midst.”5 leaflets reminding the Serbian people of the lux- urious lifestyle of Milosevic’s son while their own NATO aircraft dropped leaflets reminding the sons were being sent to Kosovo to fight. Serbian people of the luxurious lifestyle of In the final weeks of the air campaign, the Milosevic’s son while their own sons were being United States used the diplomatic end game to sent to Kosovo to fight keep Milosevic isolated internationally. A newly issued war crimes indictment against Milosevic helped discourage diplomatic free-lancing by As Allied Force extended into May, the outside parties. The goal was to deny Milosevic Administration broadened its politico-military international recognition that he could use planning from air strikes backed by diplomacy to restore political legitimacy at home. In the to a more comprehensive strategic campaign. end, rather than sending Ambassador Richard The campaign encompassed a wide range of dip- Holbrooke to negotiate a settlement with lomatic, information, military, economic, and Milosevic, who would have used such a meeting financial measures and sought to bring pressure to elevate his standing, a NATO general met with directly on Milosevic and his regime. A diplomatic Serbian counterparts to agree on military techni- effort, lead by Strobe Talbott, the U.S. Deputy cal arrangements to codify his surrender. Secretary of , was designed to show Milosevic NATO’s air campaign weakened Milosevic. that he was faced with increasing international It also strengthened the resolve of the nineteen isolation and a withdrawal of Russian support. NATO allies that Milosevic had to go. This set the Immediate military objectives of the strategic stage for a concerted international effort, after the campaign plan remained focused on reducing air strikes, to force him out. Serbia’s ability to conduct operations in Kosovo. Forcing Him Out However, intermediate objectives now included exacerbating the security forces’ discontent with In July 1999, a month after the successful conclu- Milosevic’s leadership, convincing Milosevic “cro- sion of NATO’s intervention, the President’s for- nies” that a settlement – including through his eign policy team agreed to pursue an aggressive possible removal – would be better than contin- program for Serbia. The pro- ued recalcitrance, and building public discontent gram continued efforts to undermine Milosevic’s and opposition with Milosevic’s continued rule. sources of power, including through support for NATO air strikes began including regime-re- independent media. It also put increased empha- lated targets such as leadership, state-controlled sis on building a cohesive and effective oppo- media, and crony assets that met legal target- sition. President Clinton publicly announced ing requirements. They were complemented additional funding to support democracy.

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Using that funding, non-government orga- to discredit him – while fully recognizing that nizations like the International Republican he would spare no effort to rig them. The plan Institute (IRI) and National Democratic Institute involved supporting the political opposition in (NDI) began providing advice and support to presenting a unified challenge and maximizing independent civil organizations and opposition the cost to the regime of committing electoral parties. IRI helped organize training of OTPOR fraud. Planning involved efforts to expose cheat- in strategic non-violence. NDI used polling ing, channel public anger, and encourage civil data to help opposition candidates understand disobedience immediately after a stolen vote. Milosevic’s political vulnerabilities and the The administration also developed a plan to importance of unifying behind one candidate. deter Milosevic from launching a spoiling attack With U.S. encouragement, neighboring countries on Montenegro, concerned that he would do provided a safe place for the opposition to meet, so as a way to interdict support for the opposi- strategize, and train. tion or as an excuse to call off the elections. The Vojislav Kostunica was a committed Serb United States provided diplomatic and economic nationalist and by no means the “U.S. candi- support to the Djukanovic government and con- date.” Indeed, he and his close advisors had ducted robust information operations based on a decided anti-American streak. However, the military activities in the region in order to keep administration believed that Kostunica would Milosevic and his generals uncertain about a pos- abide by his country’s constitution and interna- sible NATO or U.S. response to an attack.6 tional commitments. Equally important, polling The administration also sought to bring data showed Kostunica was the only member of Russia on board. The White House urged the the opposition who could beat Milosevic. Quiet Kremlin to support a unified opposition and U.S. engagement, backed with polling data and the removal of Milosevic by the end of the year conditions on electoral support, encouraged the should the elections be stolen or Milosevic opposition to unify behind him. launch an attack on Montenegro. Securing With the opposition growing stronger, in Russian support was a challenge, given Moscow’s February 2000 the President’s foreign policy opposition to NATO’s air campaign the year team adopted an updated strategy for regime before, but seemed to pay off in the end game, change. The strategy pressed forward with isolat- when Milosevic stepped down immediately after ing Milosevic and promoting opposition unity a meeting with the Russian foreign minister. and effectiveness. It targeted sanctions against At the beginning of September, with Milosevic’s regime and its supporters and sought the opposition unified and polling showing to demonstrate that his removal would benefit decreasing popular support for Milosevic, the the Serb people. Finally, the strategy sought to President’s foreign policy team reviewed its strat- shore up Kosovo and Montenegro against any egy. They agreed on a subtle but significant shift attempt by Milosevic to foment a crisis to distract in objective: rather than treating the elections from his growing problems in Serbia. as an opportunity to discredit Milosevic and After Milosevic’s July call for elections, the thereby support regime change over the lon- administration again updated its plans. The ger term, the administration would support the updated plan, agreed in August, aimed at making opposition in using the elections to achieve his the elections a referendum on Milosevic – seeking immediate removal.

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Concerned that Milosevic would use an been barred, and opened the door to economic active American role to rally nationalists behind recovery through the restoration of trade and him, the President’s foreign policy team decided investment. Over the longer-term, the prospect to take cues from the Serb opposition immedi- of EU accession gave considerable incentive to ately following the elections. It further decided to implementing democratic reform and coopera- keep the Europeans in the forefront to showcase tion with the international war crimes tribunal. the broad based nature of international oppo- Keys to Success sition to Milosevic’s rule. It agreed to encour- age Moscow to support the opposition publicly, Success did not manifest itself in a coup d’état which it did not, and tell Milosevic to go pri- or a bullet to the head. Milosevic’s decision to vately, which it possibly did. step down was his own. No longer alive and a Efforts to oust Milosevic came at the end of liar when he was, we will never know what moti- President Clinton’s second and last term in office. vated Milosevic during his final days in power. There was reason for concern that Milosevic or Presumably he calculated that his grip on power his supporters could perceive that they would was about to be lost and that his personal inter- “wait out” the Clinton Administration. With ests – perhaps even his personal survival – were White House encouragement, both Presidential best served by stepping down. candidates signaled support for Milosevic’s Opposition leaders and student activists removal, and efforts were made to convey their played the lead role in putting Milosevic in this positions to those around Milosevic. position. However, their courage and determi- nation would probably have been for naught Consolidating the Results without the international effort, organized by the When Vojislav Kostunica assumed the Yugoslav United States, to level the playing field and under- presidency, the United States and European Union mine Milosevic’s legitimacy and sources of power. (EU) laid out a road map for normalization of Keys to success for the U.S.-led international relations. President Clinton wrote to Kostunica effort included: personally to underscore the U.S. administration’s commitment to normalization and the consolida- ■■ Understanding and undermining tion of democracy in Serbia. U.S. developmental Milosevic’s sources of power; assistance shifted from support for the political ■■ Isolating him and delegitimizing his lead- opposition to institutional reform. ership at home and abroad; ■■ Quietly uniting, training, and supporting lifting of UN and other multilateral sanctions the domestic opposition; helped establish the legitimacy of the new ■■ Preparing to consolidate a transition to a government new, democratic leadership; ■■ Deterring a spoiling attack on Montenegro.

The lifting of UN and other multilateral Also key was the international nature of sanctions helped establish the legitimacy of the effort. Secretary of State Madeline Albright the new government, allowed it to return to and her senior advisors were in regular contact international organizations from which it had with European counterparts. The EU pointedly

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excluded Serbia from a new Stability Pact for played an important role on the periphery of Southeast Europe, demonstrating that a dem- Serbia: stabilizing Kosovo through the estab- ocratic Serbia had a place in Europe, but that lishment of KFOR and deterring a Serb spoiling a Serbia ruled by Milosevic did not. With U.S. attack on Montenegro. Thus the main military encouragement and support, former activists contribution was to contain within Serbia the from new NATO members helped train OTPOR, struggle for its leadership. and military officials from NATO partners in the region warned their counterparts in Serbia Milosevic, while brutal, never directed at Serbs against support for a falling regime. the same the level of violence used by other Another key to success was the interagency regimes nature of the effort. Senior interagency bodies met regularly to approve strategy and review implementation. A senior advisor to the Secretary Together these efforts tipped the psychologi- of State oversaw strategy development and imple- cal climate in Serbia in the direction feared by all mentation. An ambassador in a neighboring despots: to the point where the regime feared the country coordinated efforts in the field. The people more than the people feared the regime. staff of the National Security Council coordi- At first a slogan, “Gotov je!” – “he’s finished” – nated interagency efforts, including sanctions, became reality. information operations, and politico-military Lessons for Regime Change planning. The Intelligence Community played a critical role in this whole-of-government effort Regime change without force succeeded in through its analysis of political developments Serbia, but the context was unique. Milosevic, and opportunities within Serbia as well as other while brutal, never directed at Serbs the same the supporting activities. The United States Agency level of violence used by other regimes against for International Development (USAID) played their own citizens. The Serb opposition was able a similarly important role through its support for to use peaceful resistance and the ballot box; democratization activities through nongovern- other regimes may more ruthlessly suppress any mental organizations such as the NDI and IRI. dissent. The United States had strong partners in A final key to success – indeed a prerequisite ousting Milosevic, united through alliance and – was a Presidential decision at the outset that a shared horror of his atrocities; other regimes U.S. national interests, including peace in the might not be so regionally isolated. Europe was Balkans and the success of our military commit- able to exercise significant “soft power” through ments there, required the removal of Milosevic. the attractive prospect of EU accession; such Presidential commitment remained essential, instruments might not always be so available or including in face of an end game that could have effective. The eventual ouster of Milosevic did not turned violent, but fortunately did not. lead to a widespread breakdown in governance The role of the military was limited, though and security; this could be a real risk in other it did play an important supporting role. In 1999, cases, particularly if prolonged internal division Allied Force did not seek to dislodge, Milosevic has weakened institutions or degenerated into but an important secondary objective was to sectarian strife. Finally, Milosevic lacked the will loosen his grip on power. In 2000, the military or means to lash out against the United States

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and EU; other leaders, threatened with overthrow, the experience of overthrowing Milosevic offers may be ready to strike the U.S. or allied home- some general lessons. Specifically, it suggests a lands, or forces with terrorism, cyber attacks, or whole-of-government approach to: even weapons of mass destruction. ■■ Develop an in-depth intelligence assess- interfering in a country’s internal political ment of the regime, its supporters, and its vul- structure entails great uncertainty and risk nerabilities; ■■ Identify and undercut key pillars of power (e.g., police, state media, close associates); Thus any consideration of regime change ■■ Attack the regime’s legitimacy through inter- as an end must start with an understanding of national isolation and information operations; the context, to include: the international and ■■ Secure the widest possible international regional environment; the country, its people, support, particularly in the regime, and use and its institutions; and the nature and interests it to show that regime change will lift inter- of the regime. Is the regime vulnerable to inside national isolation and bring benefits to the and outside pressure? Is there a viable opposition country; with capacity to govern and values and interests ■■ Help the opposition to unify, to identify aligned with our own? How might a regime react regime weaknesses, to communicate with the with its survival threatened? What about third- public, and to expand its operations; party reactions? What risks might these pose to ■■ Co-opt or marginalize potential spoilers, U.S. interests? Is there adequate domestic support whether opposition leaders or outside powers; in the U.S. and partner countries, particularly if ■■ Convince the ruler that being out of power the risks materialize? Absent an imminent threat, is safer for himself and his family than being can the United States credibly defend the legit- in power; and/or convince those around him imacy of what amounts to interference in the that forcing his departure is essential to their internal affairs of a sovereign state? political, economic, or personal survival; Interfering in a country’s internal political ■■ Block courses of action that the ruler might structure entails great uncertainty and risk. In take to distract the population, undercut the the case of Serbia, success was by no means guar- opposition, or fracture international cohesion; anteed. U.S. efforts to oust Milosevic spanned ■■ Lead an international effort, synchronizing two years. They could have easily spanned the activities of others, leveraging their knowl- two administrations, particularly had not edge and influence, while minimizing U.S. vis- Milosevic misjudged in his call for early elec- ibility as necessary to protect the opposition tions. Widespread violence in Serbia, a spoiling legitimacy; attack against Montenegro, or renewed fighting ■■ Prepare to consolidate an expeditious tran- in Bosnia or Kosovo were all real risks that were sition to democratic government by extending fortunately avoided. A regime change strategy recognition, providing assistance, lifting sanc- is no sure thing, particularly without the use of tions, and otherwise helping to establish its military force. legitimacy at home and abroad; If regime change is deemed desirable and ■■ Seek and showcase U.S. domestic bipar- feasible despite these uncertainties and risks, tisan support to discourage the regime from

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concluding or suggesting to its supporters that of this work, as is partnering with other countries it can outlast a particular administration. that have resources and influence to help consoli- date a democratic transition. Whether supporting As reflected in the very first step, the role regime change or preparing for its aftermath, a of intelligence is essential. Foundational intel- conscious decision needs to be made about the ligence for regime change requires collecting level of U.S. visibility. In some cases, it is prudent against some very hard targets: the perceptions, to hide the hand of the United States, or to mask intentions, and decision-making process of an it as part of a larger effort, to avoid tainting the autocratic leadership and the networks of people, opposition or causing unhelpful reactions by power, and money that cement its grip on power. governments supportive of the regime or suspi- Intelligence also must play a role in validating or cious of our motives. questioning the assumption of policy makers. Will, for example, power transition without vio- the Defense Department might need to conduct lence? Will key institutions hold or disintegrate? planning, exercises, and preventive deployments, Is the opposition capable of effective governance? preferably together with allies or partners How are third parties likely to react? Skillful and knowledgeable diplomacy is also essential. Maintaining cohesion between The military might have a role, but largely the U.S. and its international partners is criti- in support. Even without strikes from the air or cal. This is a classic role of traditional diplomacy “boots on the ground,” the Department of Defense and public diplomacy. However, another type can support intelligence collection directed at the of diplomacy is also required: diplomacy that regime and its security forces. It can also help, as reaches into the society and its governing struc- appropriate, with providing the opposition intel- tures to develop understanding of the regime and ligence, training, and other support. The Defense its control mechanisms, to seek out strengthens Department can contribute to whole-of-govern- and vulnerabilities, and to build partnerships ment efforts to weaken the regime’s sources of with the opposition and civil society. This type power. This might include information and cyber of diplomacy may be conducted in safe havens operations to disrupt command and control of in neighboring countries. It may increasingly security forces, thereby sowing confusion, sapping be conducted in the cyberspace of the country morale, encouraging defections, and degrading itself. It may be conducted among and through the regime’s ability to conduct internal security the country’s diaspora, including in the United operations. It might include using military-to-mil- States. It may also be conducted through regional itary relationships with countries in the region to partners with contacts and understanding that contact elements of the regime’s security forces exceed our own. and to encourage, facilitate, and even reward Simultaneously, diplomatic and develop- defections. Finally, the Defense Department might mental efforts need to lay the groundwork to need to conduct planning, exercises, and preven- help the opposition assume the responsibilities tive deployments, preferably together with allies of governance. Plans and capacity for election or partners, to help deter regime military actions monitoring, institution building, and security and reassure neighboring countries that might force vetting and reform are important aspects otherwise feel threatened.

PRISM 4, no. 2 Features | 53 Schulte The Council of the European Union The Former Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica (right) with former EU High Representative Javier Solana at press conference.

Implications for Ousting Assad Regime change in Syria is most likely to A dozen years after supporting a successful come from within. Moreover, the violence and change in regime in Serbia, the United States has sectarian conflict do not bode well for a peaceful now committed to non-military regime change and democratic transition after Assad’s removal. in Syria. While some lessons from Serbia may Compared to Serbia, the U.S. influence is lim- apply, the circumstances are vastly different. ited over the violence struggle for power within Syria is not Serbia. The sectarian politics Syria, particularly given the conflicting interests and level of violence are completely different. So inside and outside that country. Nevertheless, the are the leaders and their opponents. Milosevic, United States and its partners may still have some while brutal, never directed at his opponents leverage to shape the outcome. the same level of violence used by Assad. The Relevant lessons from the overthrow of Serbian opposition was relatively unified and Milosevic center around the need to work with used peaceful opposition and the ballot box, like-minded countries to increase opposition whereas the Syria resistance is divided and has unity, undermine Assad’s sources of power, and taken up arms. Milosevic had the diplomatic prepare for transition after his ouster. Given support of Moscow and Beijing, as Assad does the enormous risks of armed intervention, the today, but never the active backing of a state like military role is best kept limited to supporting Iran. And Milosevic, unlike Assad, did not have whole-of-government activities to undermine the access to chemical weapons. morale and cohesion of Assad’s security forces

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and to working with neighboring countries such undercutting these sources of power in partnership as Turkey and Jordan to deter Syrian military with a unified opposition may be the best way to provocations and contain the violence to Syria. loosen a tyrant’s grip on power and ultimately convince him that “he’s finished.” Conclusion

In a world of continuing challenges and increas- ing complexity, regime change will retain its Notes apparent attractions. Ousting a tyrant can seem more attractive politically and acceptable morally 1 “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for st than dealing with a despotic regime. Deposing 21 Century Defense,” , January 2012, available at . dictators can beckon as a seemingly decisive way 2 The 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review called for to advance our interests and spread our values. forces to wage “two nearly simultaneous conventional However, the Obama Administration’s new campaigns” and to be prepared in one “to remove a hostile defense strategy seems to preclude forcible regime regime, destroy its military capacity and set conditions for the transition to, or for the restoration of, civil society.” See change of the type exercised in Afghanistan “Quadrennial Defense Review,” (February 6, 2006), 38. and Iraq. This is a reasonable approach as we 3 A version of this section, together with les- look back on the unforeseen costs and balance sons learned, was included in: Gregory L. Schulte, “Overthrowing Milosevic: Lessons for Syria?” (August 15, future interests against declining resources. Even 2012), available at: . that we do not have – such as influence over 4 In 2000, following the breakup of Yugoslavia and opposition – or pose risks that we wish to avoid NATO’s intervention in Bosnia then Kosovo, the Federal Republic consisted of Serbia (Milosevic’s center of power) – such as sparking sectarian violence. and an increasingly autonomous Montenegro (now inde- Rather than seeking to overthrow a regime, pendent). Kosovo (also now independent) was legally part seeking to influence the regime’s behavior or con- of the Federal Republic, though formally autonomous tain its impact may be a more prudent approach. and administered by the United Nations. While Milosevic was nominally President of the Federal Republic, his real The challenge is to influence without bestowing authority was increasingly limited to Serbia. legitimacy, while explaining the purposes of our 5 President Clinton’s remarks to the American Society engagement at home and abroad. of Newspaper Editors in San Francisco, April 15, 1999. 6 More about this plan is described in an earlier arti- Dealing with the regime in the short term cle by the author. See Gregory Schulte, “Deterring Attack: does not preclude sowing seeds of democracy for The Role of Information Operations,” , (Winter 2002-3), the long-term. Indeed, encouraging democracy 84-89. through public diplomacy and support to civil society may be the most effective and sustainable approach to regime change, even if the results are not always immediate. In those limited cases when a more interven- tionist approach seems desirable and feasible, the overthrow of Milosevic offers some useful lessons. Foremost among these is the importance of under- standing the nature of the regime and its sources of power. As in the case of Milosevic’s Serbia,

PRISM 4, no. 2 Features | 55 Photo by Staff Sgt. Kaily Brown

A team leader for a U.S. Special Operations Cultural Support Team, hands out utensils in the village of Oshay, Afghanistan.