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4 Political Economy of the Arab States— Whither Any Change? Özlem Tür 95 in the Region

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4 Political Economy of the Arab States— Whither Any Change? Özlem Tür 95 in the Region Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung or its Regional Program Political Dialogue South Mediterranean. Regional Program Political Dialogue South Mediterranean Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung © Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung 2021 - All Rights Reserved TABLE OF CONTENT Foreword 5 Introduction​ 9 Chapter 1: 15 What has Changed in the Arab World’s Political Systems? Lina Khatib Chapter 2: 41 Kinetic Karama: Bargaining for Dignity in the Pursuit of a New Arab Social Contract Amro Ali Chapter 3: 69 Arab Youth, Between Inclusion and Revolution Youssef Cherif Chapter 4: 93 Political Economy of the Arab States Whither any Change? Özlem Tür Chapter 5: 117 Economic Dimensions of the Social Contract and How to Address Them Nader Kabbani Conclusion​ 147 References 153 Foreword The Arab world is pluralistic and everything but homogenous. It is in this context that the Regional Program Political Dialogue Nevertheless, it unites a region with an incredibly rich history of South Mediterranean of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS Pol- ethnic, cultural, and religious diversity. Stretching primarily from DiMed) undertakes its activities to promote greater understan- North Africa to West Asia, Arab countries have been experien- ding for cross-national and cross-regional developments in the cing various evolutions, and most of their borders have been Mediterranean region. KAS PolDiMed cooperates closely with shaped by their colonial pasts. Many countries of the region local partners to pursue a shared vision for human development, experienced waves of popular uprisings that did not only unite economic progress, and political and social stability. Our com- the people, but most importantly still influences their realities mitment to this vision of freer and more prosperous development today. Often referred to as the «Arab Spring», the uprisings in the wider Mediterranean will continue to be a source of inspi- were and are much more than a temporal concept and continue ration for our activities in the future. to have an impact today, spurring a new understanding between citizens and the state. While the ongoing uprisings have not led We would like to thank the distinguished academics and everywhere to immediate and profound reforms, they have given experts who contributed to the chapters of this book to provide citizens a voice and signaled to elites that their power is limited. various political, social and economic perspectives on the nature Transformation processes always take time, and they need time of a modern Arab state. We would like to thank the authors for to bring about lasting inclusive change. their dedication to this project and in particular the editor, Yous- sef Cherif, for his invaluable contribution to the completion of this While the title of this book is deliberately provocative in nature, book. We believe that this volume will make a fruitful contribution the purpose is not to assert the existence of a single Arab state to the academic and broader debate on the evolving civil-state in its «modern» form, but rather to take a closer look at the evol- relations in the Arab countries, and we are eager to follow and ving nature of states and to provide a forward-looking unders- support the transformation process in the wider region. tanding of the characteristics of modern Arab states. Despite the severe socio-economic challenges and the persistent auto- cratic nature of most states, our recent KAS PolDiMed Survey found that citizens remain positive about their economic future Thomas Volk Director, Regional Program and that civic engagement outside of formal political structures Political Dialogue South Mediterranean, is on the rise. Ten years after the Arab uprisings, democracy Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung and its institutions remain fragile and often cosmetic, and yet civil societies are aspiring and a new social contract is emerging with an increasingly empowered citizenry. 6 References 7 Introduction Youssef Cherif The idea for this book followed multiple discussions I had with the leadership economic troubles loom ahead even if the Assad regime claims to have the of the Regional Program Political Dialogue South Mediterranean of the upper hand. Egypt, whose regime boasts of having recovered stability, is also Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, as the 10th anniversary of the Arab Uprisings was struggling with growing economic and demographic problems and a continued approaching. A new shape of the Arab state was emerging1; some would say insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula. Yemen is in a perpetual state of civil war and that a modern Arab state was being born. A renewal of the social contract, the division, and Libya is fragmented and partly destroyed, situations amplified by economic model, the political system, and the place of youth are some of many regional and external interventions. Even Saudi Arabia, the master status-quo debates that have been in motion since 2011 in most Arab countries. And this player, is experiencing its own changes: the ascent of Mohamed bin Salman in is what the book aims to encapsulate. However, the sudden shock of COVID-19 2017 is transforming the monarchy’s foundations, and the successive oil cra- delayed our plans, and it was only in the summer 2020 that we restarted working shes are making it difficult for the ruling family to sustain its way of life. These on the concept note. examples, in turn, are a reminder that repression and war may and may not calm things down, but they do not resolve the deep rooted problems. In 2011, the movement that shook the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region was enthusiastically dubbed the “Arab Spring.” But that term gradually Hence, it is safer to talk about the Arab Uprisings over time and not of a one- lost its fame and, already by the end of 2011, the Arab Spring was said to be time Arab Spring and to see recent events as part of an ongoing moment. At over. By 2013, it seemed as if the MENA region was trapped between civil war, the time of printing this book, revolts continue to threaten the palaces of Arab authoritarianism, and Jihadi terrorism. Most observers considered that the pro- rulers. The authors looked back at the last decade and attempted to unders- cess was not only over but also opening a pandora box of calamities. In many tand the many fluctuations in power and position, from the quest for a new accounts published since that period, titles such as the Arab or Muslim Win- social contract and the birth of a modern Arab state to the political, social, and ter replaced the then-discredited Arab Spring. The general view was that the economic dimensions of the changes and the pathway for the future. region was either going back to its pre-2011 status quo or collapsing entirely. In the first chapter, Lina Khatib considers the emergence of a new politi- But historical events are never linear and rarely deterministic. As years went cal classification of regimes post-2011. While many political systems have by, new and unexpected changes appeared. In Tunisia, democracy did not not changed significantly since the start of the uprisings or merely witnessed produce the expected economic benefits, and the anger on the streets was cosmetic reforms, other systems have undergone notable transformations. not channeled to political parties. To the observer of Tunisian politics, the These transformations can be broadly grouped under five categories: the fai- country seems to have entered a cycle of protests that kept regenerating with ling state, the military state, the democratizing state, the autocratic state, and no end in sight. In Lebanon, a country spared by the Arab Spring arguably the mandated state. Tunisia stands apart in formulating a new post-revolutio- because of its democratic life as well as ethnic and clientelist divisions that nary system that is taking the country toward democracy, but other countries remind the Lebanese of their civil war, social and political movements began have seen political regression toward autocracy. A number of countries have to gain intensity in 2014, so as to become a country-wide revolutionary pro- come to be dominated by the interests of foreign powers as they grapple with cess by the end of the decade. Algeria and Iraq, only slightly shaken in 2011, raging wars. Other countries that did not witness uprisings in 2011 have main- witnessed country-wide protests that led to the resignation of governments in tained their political systems in theory but in practice have undergone signifi- 2019. Sudan, which was also quiet in 2011, got its revolution in 2019 and sent cant changes. its long-time dictator to jail. These examples show that while democracy does not necessarily lead to stability, the authoritarian bargain does not last forever, In the second chapter, Amro Ali looks at the changing nature of the state- and the outcome of a revolution is not always chaotic. citizen relationship post-2011 and whether a new social contract is emerging. For Ali, the protest cries of karama (dignity) in 2011 saw the emergence of a In Morocco and Jordan, two monarchies whose leadership seemed to have new subjectivity in the Arab world that birthed a new citizenship paradigm and received the popular message and engaged in constitutional reforms in 2011, elevated the citizenry as a compelling sovereign collective. Karama developed social movements and protests were observed by the end of the 2010’s and not only as a form of bottom-up universal humanism but also independently they led to an authoritarian upgrading by the regimes. As for Syria, the state outside the confines of academia, religious-secular debates, and even human proved unable to regain full control of its lands and authority, and security and rights organizations.
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