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The Genocide in Rwanda an Interpretative Case Study of the UN Decision-Making Process

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The Genocide in Rwanda an Interpretative Case Study of the UN Decision-Making Process The Genocide in Rwanda An Interpretative Case Study of the UN Decision-Making Process Sandra Krüger Peace and Conflict Studies Bachelor 12 ECTS Spring/Summer 2021 Supervisor: John H.S. Åberg Word count: 13113 Abstract This thesis uses an interpretative case study of the Rwandan genocide to explore and analyze factors in the decision-making process of the United Nations. Using defensive structural realism and its concepts and theories explained by Stephen Walt, a level-by-level analyses is conducted going over the internal and external power relationships of Rwanda, the (perceived) intentions of both involved sides and some possible alternative actions based on the Offence-Defense Balance. Conducting the research from a realist point of view states are treated as rational actors whose greatest interest is self-preservation and security. Taking this as the baseline the thesis concludes that in the framework of Stephen Walt’s Balance of Threat Theory the United Nations did not intervene because of a perceived threat, but because of a misperception of intentions of the Rwandan government. While already involved the Hutu army manages to use force and manipulation to land critical strikes on the moral of the intervening countries. Overall, it can be concluded that the Balance of Threat Theory is useful to explain political decision-making to a degree, yet it misses several other important aspects such as international news coverage. Keywords: Genocide, Realism, United Nations, Uncertainty, Rwanda, Decision- Making Glossary Akazu – Kinyarwanda: „small house“; the presidential guard DPKO – Department of Peacekeeping Operations DFS – Department of Field Support HRS – Humanitarian Relief Sector Interahamwe – Kinyarwanda: „Those who stand together”; Hutu paramilitary organization MRND – Mouvement Revoloutionaire Nationale pour le Development PDD-25 - Presidential Decision Directive 25, a directive limiting American involvement in UN peacekeeping missions ROE – Rule of Engagement RPF - Rwandese Patriotic Front UNAMIR – United Nations Assistance Mission for Rwanda UNITAF – United Task Force UN(O) – United Nations (Organization) UNOMUR – United Nations Observer Mission Uganda-Rwanda UNOSOM I – United Nations Operation in Somalia I Zaire – now Congo Table of Contents 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Research Problem ................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Aim and Research Question ................................................................................... 3 1.3 Relevance to Peace and Conflict Studies ................................................................ 4 1.4 Delimitations ........................................................................................................... 4 1.5 Thesis Outline ......................................................................................................... 5 2 Background and Previous Research .............................................................................. 6 2.1 Rwanda before the Genocide .................................................................................. 6 2.2 The Rwandan Genocide .......................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 The Mogadishu Line ...................................................................................... 10 2.2.3 Responsibility to Protect ................................................................................ 10 3 Analytical and Theoretical Framework ....................................................................... 12 3.1 Defensive Structural Realism and the Balance of Threat Theory......................... 12 3.2 Power .................................................................................................................... 13 3.2.1 Force .............................................................................................................. 14 3.3 Uncertainty and the Security Dilemma ................................................................. 15 3.4 Offense-Defense Balance...................................................................................... 16 3.5 Humanitarian Interventions and the United Nations ............................................ 16 3.5.1 Humanitarian Intervention ............................................................................. 16 3.5.2 The United Nations and its Peace Missions................................................... 17 4 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 19 4.1 Case Study Approach ............................................................................................ 19 4.2 Research Design ................................................................................................... 20 4.3 Data Selection ....................................................................................................... 22 4.4 Source Criticism ................................................................................................... 22 4.5 Ethical Considerations and Positionality .............................................................. 23 5 Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 24 5.1 How was Rwanda’s internal and relative Power compared to the involved UN member states? ..................................................................................................... 24 5.2 What were the (perceived) intentions behind the conflict in Rwanda and how did they change over time? ................................................................................. 27 5.3 Which ways of engagement stood open to the UN Security Council and member states and how were they balanced and considered? .................................... 30 6 Concluding Discussion ................................................................................................ 35 7 References .................................................................................................................... 38 1 Introduction ‘Rwanda was simply too remote . too poor, too little, and probably too black to be worthwhile.’ e(Alison Des Forges. In: Jones 2013: 255) 1.1 Research Problem Over the years the world has become more and more globalized, and countries have developed an understanding of international responsibility as well as a new sense of threat and security. With the creation of the United Nations (UN) many countries came together in an effort to, on the one hand, secure international peace and on one side to have a greater national security as they had the other member states behind them if they were to be attacked. Every country that joined the UN had at least some selfish reasons for doing so. And with very varying national strengths, the member states were never on the same level in terms of capabilities to support of the UN, nor their rights within. An example for this would be the veto rights of the five permanent members of the Security Council: “The Republic of China, France, the Union of Socialist Republics [Russia], the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America” (UN-Charter, Chapter V art 23.1). Yet, the Security Council also acts as a preventive measure to minimalize the abuse of power that comes with being a part of the United Nations by ruling over the necessity and therefore legality of an unrequested intervention into another country. On April 7th, 1994, the Rwandan Genocide began which lasted until July 15th the same year. In these roughly 100 days, an estimate of about 800.000 Tutsi and moderate Hutus are said to have lost their lives by the hand of Hutus. The slaughtering started when the plane carrying the presidents of Rwanda and Burundi was shot down over Kigali Airport, killing everyone inside, in the evening of April 6th. At this point, the United Nations already had their Assistance Mission for Rwanda (UNAMIR) in the country for six months in a peace keeping effort to help seeing the Arusha 1 Peace Agreement through, which was meant to end the Civil War raging at this point. Yet, when the peace keeping mission became a humanitarian intervention, most of the personal already stationed in the country was ordered back, causing a delay in the help which could be provided. When it comes to the Rwandan Genocide there are two very prominent standpoints. One states that the severity, if not the entire genocide, was possible due to a lack of political will of the member states (Melvern, 2015: 482) which therefor means that the failure was not one of the United Nations Organization (UNO), but rather of its member states. They were the ones who had not been willing to offer the needed supplies, troops and support due to national interests (Dellaire, 2008: 582). The second standpoint is more diverse and argues that the situation had been more complex than that. Here, the point is made that the decisions were based on various intertwined but sometimes also completely independent reasons which clearly goes beyond a simple reasoning of what is right and wrong and declaring one party as the guilty one. But how can we determine who was at fault, or if there was a wrongdoing in the first place? This paper will look upon the data collected by of independent observations, laws and mandates
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