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The New Foreign Policy of Turkey in the EU Membership Process: Is Turkey Turning Away from Europe?

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The New Foreign Policy of Turkey in the EU Membership Process: Is Turkey Turning Away from Europe? The New Foreign Policy of Turkey in the EU membership process: Is Turkey turning away from Europe? The topic of my presentation is the new foreign policy of Turkey in the EU membership process: Is Turkey turning away from Europe? The topic implies a veiled irony: on the one hand Turkey is having accession talks with the European Union after being the longest candidate in EU history but on the other hand it could be drifting away from the club it seeks to be a part of it. Very contradictory, indeed! Turkey and Turkish foreign policy in particular has been at the focus of international attention for some time and already there is a huge index of articles, books and research trying to understand what the “new” Turkish foreign policy is all about. There are many questions asked, many of them strongly implying that Turkey is changing her axis or partners in her foreign policy. Has Turkey started to run an Islamist foreign policy? Has Turkey developed nostalgia for Pax-Ottomana? Does Turkey want to resurrect the caliphate it held until 1924 and rule the Islamic world as its leader? Has the AK Party government Middle-Easternized traditionally pro-West foreign policy of the country? Does Turkey envy to lead the Turkic republics in Central Asia? OR Does Turkey want to continue to be a part of the Western World but at the same time increase its regional posture to prevent potential conflicts that could destabilize herself, to contribute to sorting the regional problems and benefit from the opportunities? Just in the Foreign Policy magazine that was out last week, there were two articles which attest to the heated debate about “Turkey’s way”. One had the title, “Sultan of the Muslim world”; the other entitled “Pax Ottomana”. Two argue different points, the first is strongly criticizing the AK Party government and its foreign policy, the second is stressing that Turkey is not turning its back on the West, simply trying to empower herself in a tough neighborhood! I will argue that Turkey is not turning her back on the West and moreover, there is no way that any Turkish government that wants to be re-elected whether left-wing or right wing, whether Islamist, conservative or militantly secular can turn her back to the West. Turkey can re-calibrate her relations with the West as she did radically in 1997 after the Luxembourg Summit but it is out of question for Turkey to turn her back to EU. Firstly, all of a sudden why do we have this very intensive debate on Turkish foreign policy and the claim that Turkey is sliding away from the West. Two very important incidents happened very recently. On May the 31, the Israeli commandos stormed a humanitarian flotilla of 6 ships in the international waters bound for Gaza, killing 9 activists, 8 of them Turkish citizens, one having dual citizenship both Turkish and American. The incident provoked a global wave of Israeli condemnation and compelled Turkey to call for an extraordinary UN Security Council meeting in which Turkey accused Israel of committing “state terror”. Needless to remind, Turkey has been the first Muslim country to recognize Israel in 1949 and starting in 1996, signed many strategically important military agreements with Israel strongly disturbing the traditional balance she had with Arab countries. Almost 10 days after what happened at the humanitarian flotilla, on June the 9th Turkey and Brazil voted against the fourth round of sanctions against Iran in the Security Council. The sanctions passed by 12 yes, 2 no and 1 abstention being Lebanon. The US which actually was not very forthcoming to appease Turkey’s concerns on the flotilla made it very clear that it was not happy at all about the way Turkey voted on Iran together with Brazil. In the US, we witnessed an amazing surge in opinions in the media and public discourse that Turkey was shifting her axis and loyalty, citing the two recent examples as sound evidence. Following the debate in the US, the two consecutive events in less than 10 days sparked a storm of articles, debates, discussion, panels and seminars globally on whether Turkey has changed her course of international affairs and turned her back to the West! There were actually several incidents in which the West had second thoughts on the way Turkey reacted but these two events led many to think that the West was losing Turkey. When Turkish Parliament voted “No” on March the 1st, 2003 to allow American troops to use Turkish soil to invade Northern Iraq, When Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stormed out a Davos meeting with Israeli President Shimon Peres in January 2009 as we call it the “one minute” quarrel When Turkey blocked the election of Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen for quite a while at the NATO summit in Strasbourg citing his position during the cartoons crisis, There was debate but no reflexive conclusions that Turkey was lost! With the debate on new Turkish foreign policy, the focus was put on Prof. Ahmet Davutoğlu, the relatively new Turkish minister of foreign affairs and who until becoming foreign minister in May 2009, had served as the chief advisor on foreign affairs both for PM Erdoğan and President Gül. Dubbed as the “Kissinger of Turkey”, many pundits start talking about the “Davutoğlu” effect and his doctrine of “Strategic Depth”. Published in 2001, the book Strategic Depth’s main thesis simply put says that: Strategic depth is predicated on geographical depth and historical depth. The strategic depth doctrine calls for an activist engagement with all regional systems in Turkey’s neighborhood. It has 5 principles to guide Turkish foreign policy Balance between freedom and security Zero problems with neighbors Multi-dimensional and multi-track policies A new diplomatic discourse based on firm flexibility Rhythmic diplomacy According to Davutoğlu, these principles will transform Turkey from being a wing/ flank country to being a pivotal state and finally a global actor in the post-cold war era. HISTORY!: Since the 11th century, Turks have always marched westward and with the exception of necessity, the Western direction has been a priority in the Ottoman Empire all throughout 6 centuries. Almost the whole narrative of the 19th century Ottoman Empire is somewhat similar to what we witness today, i.e. the reformation of the system according to European Norms. The Tanzimat and Islahat periods, during which Western reforms were enacted, the goal was to have a decent seat in the European table. When Turkey had her first constitution in 1876, she basically took the French and Belgian constitutions as models. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, despite fighting Western powers to create the Republic, he radically reformed the country basically on the French model. The Republican period has aggressively pursued a policy of belonging to every and each of the European international institutions. Actually Atatürk had very strong pro-EU views and once he famously declared that “there is only one civilization, and that is the Western civilization”. Long before Atatürk pushed for the code of clothing, Mahmud the IInd actually became the first Ottoman Sultan to wear Western garb. WHERE TO GO: The argument that Turkey is turning her back to European Union in particular and to the West in general should also point at alternative international organizations that Turkey could substitute for the European Union. There is no such organization that Turkey could be a member if the goal of membership in the EU collapses. There is no Islamic organization comparable to EU Turkey would aspire to join. Alliance with Russia or China is mere dreams. EU is the only attractive and viable framework by which Turkey can modernize herself on the universal values of democracy, the rule of law, human rights and pluralism. LEGITIMACY QUESTION: Being a child of the Islamist Milli Görüş movement, AK Party had faced many tough questions about the direction it would take Turkey in 2002. The very fast reform process AK Party has initiated has certainly paved the way for comforting many skeptics and opponents alike. Any shift from the EU will automatically create a huge debate of legitimacy for AK Party which would damage the credentials of the party. IT IS NOT NEW: However, Turkey’s transformation did not start in 2002 with the victory of the AKP, but rather in the 1980s when Turgut Özal, World Bank economist and founder of the Motherland Party began to steer towards more internal pluralism and greater openness vis-à-vis the outside world. Özal’s opening had multiple long-term consequences. While paving the way for the military’s disengagement from politics after the 1980 coup, in foreign policy, Ozalism entailed a rediscovery of Turkey’s identity as a Muslim country and a revaluation of its past as an empire. Neo-Ottomanism gained currency as a phrase and an ideology in this period. This renewed appreciation of critical elements of the Turkish heritage which had been hastily buried after the establishment of the Republic in 1923 was, however, not aimed at altering Turkey’s Western orientation. On the contrary, recognition of all facets of Turkey’s history and identity was seen by Özal and others as allowing for a reaffirmation of the choice in favor of the West on a more solid and honest basis. CHANGE IN SECURITY ENVIRONMENT: Turkey’s recent diplomatic activism reflects an effort to overcome the anomalies of the Cold War and to adapt to the country’s changed strategic environment. At the same time, it reflects a recognition that Turkey’s domestic stability and prosperity depend heavily on regional stability, which requires reducing tensions with Turkey’s immediate neighbors.
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