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The Politics of Information in Famine Early Warning A UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Fixing Famine: The Politics of Information in Famine Early Warning A Dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the Requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Communication by Suzanne M. M. Burg Committee in Charge: Professor Robert B. Horwitz, Chair Professor Geoffrey C. Bowker Professor Ivan Evans Professor Gary Fields Professor Martha Lampland 2008 Copyright Suzanne M. M. Burg, 2008 All rights reserved. The Dissertation of Suzanne M. M. Burg is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm: _______________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________ Chair University of California, San Diego 2008 iii DEDICATION For my past and my future Richard William Burg (1932-2007) and Emma Lucille Burg iv EPIGRAPH I am hungry, O my mother, I am thirsty, O my sister, Who knows my sufferings, Who knows about them, Except my belt! Amharic song v TABLE OF CONTENTS Signature Page……………………………………………………………………. iii Dedication……………………………………………………………………….. iv Epigraph…………………………………………………………………………. v Table of Contents………………………………………………………………... vi List of Acronyms………………………………………………………………… viii List of Figures……………………………………………………………………. xi List of Tables…………………………………………………………………….. xii Acknowledgments……………………………………………………………….. xiii Vita………………………………………………………………………………. xvi Abstract of the dissertation……………………………………………………… xvii Introduction…………………………………………………………………..… 1 Methods of the Current Study……………………………………........... 10 Plan of the Dissertation…………………………………………………. 15 Chapter One: Famine Early Warning Systems and Ways to Think about Them…………………………………………………………………………….. 19 Standardizing Famine and Quantifying Needs…………………………. 23 Famine Early Warning Systems and Policy……………………………. 34 The International Humanitarian System.……………………………….. 45 Chapter Two: Conceptualizing Famine and Famine Early Warning…………… 55 A Classic Famine Narrative……………………………………………. 56 Defining Famine: From Malthus to the Present Day…………………... 65 The Development of Famine Early Warning Systems………………… 81 Chapter Three: Measuring Famine in Ethiopia………………………………… 120 Famine and Politics: The Ethiopian State, NGOs, and Donor Government Relations…………………………………………………. 124 Early Warning in Ethiopia: History, Systems, and Organizations…...... 149 vi Methodology Wars: The Politics of Emergency Needs Assessment…. 202 Chapter Four: Trust in Experts? Objectivity, Consensus, and Transparency in Famine Early Warning………………………………………………………… 225 Defining Objectivity in Practice……………………………………….. 230 Living in Harmony: Achieving the Appearance of Objectivity through Consensus and Transparency……………………………………..……. 261 Chapter Five: Fixing Famine: Ways of Moving from Prediction to Prevention. 305 Missing Links and Questions of Jurisdiction………………………….. 311 Fixing the World: Solving Global Poverty……………………………. 317 Righting Wrongs: Solving Famine through International Law and Other Political Approaches…………………….…………………………..….. 335 Was It a Famine? The Response to the 2002-2003 Crisis...…………… 356 Conclusion: Fixing Famine Early Warning…………………………………….. 385 Towards a New Way of Doing Famine Early Warning……………...... 391 References…………………………………………………………………....... 400 vii LIST OF ACRONYMS ADDS Africa Data Dissemination System ADLI Agricultural Development-Led Industrialization AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer CART Classification and Regression Tree CEW Conflict Early Warning CRDA Christian Relief and Development Association CRS Catholic Relief Services CSA Central Statistics Authority DA Development Agent DAC Development Assistance Committee DART Disaster Area Response Team DFID Department for International Development DMCN Drought Monitoring Center – Nairobi DPPB Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Bureau DPPC Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission DPPD Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Desk ECHO European Commission Humanitarian Aid Department EFSR Emergency Food Security Reserve EGS Employment Generation Scheme EPLF Eritrean People’s Liberation Front EPRDF Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front EROS Earth Resources Observation System FANA Food Aid Needs Assessment viii FAO Food and Agricultural Organization FEG Food Economy Group FEWS Famine Early Warning System FEWS NET Famine Early Warning System Network FFP Food for Peace GIEWS Global Information and Early Warning System GIMMS Global Inventory Mapping and Modeling Systems GIS Geographic Information Systems HEA Household Economy Approach ICC International Criminal Court ICD International Classification of Diseases IDP Internally Displaced Person IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IMF International Monetary Fund ISP Institutional Support Program JEOP Joint Emergency Operation Plan LRRD Linking Relief, Rehabilitation and Development MoARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NEWS National Early Warning System NGO Nongovernmental Organization NMSA National Meteorological Services Agency NOAA National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration ix ODA Official Development Assistance OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OFDA Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance OLF Oromo Liberation Front REST Relief Society of Tigray RRC Relief and Rehabilitation Commission SNNPR Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples Region TPLF Tigray People’s Liberation Front UK United Kingdom UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UN-OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs US United States USAID United States Agency for International Development USGS United States Geological Survey WFP World Food Programme WFP/VAM World Food Programme Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping WHO World Health Organization WRSI Water Requirements Satisfaction Index x LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1: Administrative Map of Ethiopia…………………………………….. 129 Figure 3.2: The Administrative Hierarchy of the Federal Democratic Government of Ethiopia……………………………………………………………… 142 Figure 3.3: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) versus Long-Term for April 21, 2008…………………………………………………….…. 170 Figure 3.4: Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) for April 1, 2008….. 171 Figure 3.5: The FEWS III Website Homepage (January 25, 1999)…………..… 177 Figure 3.6: The FEWS NET Website Homepage (February 4, 2004)………….. 180 Figure 5.1: US Food and Non-Food Assistance in Fiscal Year 2003…………... 377 xi LIST OF TABLES Table 0.1: Organizations Represented by Interviews in the Current Study……. 13 Table 1.1: Selected Famine Early Warning Systems and Organizations……….. 21 Table 2.1: Approaches to Famine and Corresponding Indicators………………. 83 Table 3.1: National Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Committee Members. 151 Table 3.2: Indicators Monitored in the National Early Warning System by Major Food Supply System…………………………...……………..…….. 158 Table 4.1: Members of the Woreda Early Warning Committee……………….. 240 Table 5.1: The Right to Food in International Human Rights Documents…….. 336 xii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This dissertation has been several years in the making, and as with any such endeavor, a significant number of debts have been incurred. First, I would like to thank the many early warning and food security experts who generously gave of their time to speak with me about their work. In particular, the head of the Early Warning Department at the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission in Addis Ababa facilitated my entry into the Early Warning Working Group, whose members welcomed my participation in their activities and meetings. FEWS NET Ethiopia gave me an operational home base while I was in Addis and introduced me to many of the humanitarian actors there. The DPPC also provided me with a space to work, and its staff were extraordinarily forthcoming about their activities. I would particularly like to thank the “lunch group,” who warmly included me in their stimulating discussions. My agreement with the UCSD Human Research Protections Program prevents me from thanking them by name. I have also benefited from an extraordinary doctoral committee: Robert Horwitz (chair), Geof Bowker, Ivan Evans, Gary Fields, and Martha Lampland. In particular, Robert Horwitz and Geof Bowker’s close readings of each chapter led to many improvements, and I thank them for their encouragement and support. The UCSD Communication Department would not be what it is without the generosity and warmth of the staff, and I would not have completed my degree without Gayle Aruta’s unflagging efforts. I would also like to thank my graduate student colleagues xiii for providing a supportive environment, particularly Olga Kuchinskaya, Marie Judson, Yael Warshel, Ricardo Guthrie, and Matthew Stahl. The other graduate student mothers, especially Jona Rose Feinberg, Beth Ferholt, Emma Johnson, and Magalí Muria, were important sources of inspiration and support in balancing parenthood and work, which is a lot trickier than it looks. Funding for the research came from a number of sources, including a Fulbright Fellowship and a research and travel grant from the University of California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. Addis Ababa University’s Institute of Development Research graciously provided
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