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Exposure and Vulnerability Determinants of Risk: 2 Exposure and Vulnerability Coordinating Lead Authors: Omar-Dario Cardona (Colombia), Maarten K. van Aalst (Netherlands) Lead Authors: Jörn Birkmann (Germany), Maureen Fordham (UK), Glenn McGregor (New Zealand), Rosa Perez (Philippines), Roger S. Pulwarty (USA), E. Lisa F. Schipper (Sweden), Bach Tan Sinh (Vietnam) Review Editors: Henri Décamps (France), Mark Keim (USA) Contributing Authors: Ian Davis (UK), Kristie L. Ebi (USA), Allan Lavell (Costa Rica), Reinhard Mechler (Germany), Virginia Murray (UK), Mark Pelling (UK), Jürgen Pohl (Germany), Anthony-Oliver Smith (USA), Frank Thomalla (Australia) This chapter should be cited as: Cardona, O.D., M.K. van Aalst, J. Birkmann, M. Fordham, G. McGregor, R. Perez, R.S. Pulwarty, E.L.F. Schipper, and B.T. Sinh, 2012: Determinants of risk: exposure and vulnerability. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 65-108. 65 Determinants of Risk: Exposure and Vulnerability Chapter 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................67 2.1. Introduction and Scope..............................................................................................................69 2.2. Defining Determinants of Risk: Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability........................................69 2.2.1. Disaster Risk and Disaster .................................................................................................................................................69 2.2.2. The Factors of Risk .............................................................................................................................................................69 2.3. The Drivers of Vulnerability .......................................................................................................70 2.4. Coping and Adaptive Capacities ................................................................................................72 2.4.1. Capacity and Vulnerability .................................................................................................................................................72 2.4.2. Different Capacity Needs...................................................................................................................................................74 2.4.2.1. Capacity to Anticipate Risk.................................................................................................................................................................74 2.4.2.2. Capacity to Respond...........................................................................................................................................................................74 2.4.2.3. Capacity to Recover and Change........................................................................................................................................................75 2.4.3. Factors of Capacity: Drivers and Barriers...........................................................................................................................76 2.5. Dimensions and Trends of Vulnerability and Exposure ..............................................................76 2.5.1. Environmental Dimensions.................................................................................................................................................76 2.5.1.1. Physical Dimensions ...........................................................................................................................................................................77 2.5.1.2. Geography, Location, Place ................................................................................................................................................................77 2.5.1.3. Settlement Patterns and Development Trajectories.............................................................................................................................78 2.5.2. Social Dimensions ..............................................................................................................................................................80 2.5.2.1. Demography .......................................................................................................................................................................................80 2.5.2.2. Education............................................................................................................................................................................................81 2.5.2.3. Health and Well-Being........................................................................................................................................................................82 2.5.2.4. Cultural Dimensions............................................................................................................................................................................84 2.5.2.5. Institutional and Governance Dimensions ..........................................................................................................................................85 2.5.3. Economic Dimensions.........................................................................................................................................................86 2.5.4. Interactions, Cross-Cutting Themes, and Integrations .......................................................................................................87 2.5.4.1. Intersectionality and Other Dimensions..............................................................................................................................................88 2.5.4.2. Timing, Spatial, and Functional Scales................................................................................................................................................88 2.5.4.3. Science and Technology......................................................................................................................................................................89 2.6. Risk Identification and Assessment ...........................................................................................89 2.6.1. Risk Identification ..............................................................................................................................................................90 2.6.2. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment.....................................................................................................................................90 2.6.3. Risk Communication...........................................................................................................................................................95 2.7. Risk Accumulation and the Nature of Disasters ........................................................................95 References .................................................................................................................................................96 66 Chapter 2 Determinants of Risk: Exposure and Vulnerability Executive Summary The severity of the impacts of extreme and non-extreme weather and climate events depends strongly on the level of vulnerability and exposure to these events (high confidence). [2.2.1, 2.3, 2.5] Trends in vulnerability and exposure are major drivers of changes in disaster risk, and of impacts when risk is realized (high confidence). [2.5] Understanding the multi-faceted nature of vulnerability and exposure is a prerequisite for determining how weather and climate events contribute to the occurrence of disasters, and for designing and implementing effective adaptation and disaster risk management strategies. [2.2, 2.6] Vulnerability and exposure are dynamic, varying across temporal and spatial scales, and depend on economic, social, geographic, demographic, cultural, institutional, governance, and environmental factors (high confidence). [2.2, 2.3, 2.5] Individuals and communities are differentially exposed and vulnerable and this is based on factors such as wealth, education, race/ethnicity/religion, gender, age, class/caste, disability, and health status. [2.5] Lack of resilience and capacity to anticipate, cope with, and adapt to extremes and change are important causal factors of vulnerability. [2.4] Extreme and non-extreme weather and climate events also affect vulnerability to future extreme events, by modifying the resilience, coping, and adaptive capacity of communities, societies, or social-ecological systems affected by such events (high confidence). [2.4.3] At the far end of the spectrum – low-probability, high- intensity events – the intensity of extreme climate and weather events and exposure to them tend to be more pervasive in explaining disaster loss than vulnerability in explaining the level of impact. But for less extreme events – higher probability, lower intensity – the vulnerability of exposed elements plays an increasingly important role (high confidence). [2.3] The cumulative effects of small- or medium-scale, recurrent disasters at the sub-national
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