A PARADIGM ANALYSIS OF ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABILITY: THE EMERGING POLYCENTRIC CLIMATE CHANGE PUBLICS by Job B. Taminiau A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the University of Delaware in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Energy and Environmental Policy Summer 2015 © 2015 Job B. Taminiau All Rights Reserved ProQuest Number: 3730269 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. ProQuest 3730269 Published by ProQuest LLC (2015). Copyright of the Dissertation is held by the Author. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. ProQuest LLC. 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, MI 48106 - 1346 A PARADIGM ANALYSIS OF ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABILITY: THE EMERGING POLYCENTRIC CLIMATE CHANGE PUBLICS by Job B. Taminiau Approved: __________________________________________________________ John Byrne, Ph.D. Chair of the Department of Energy and Environmental Policy Approved: __________________________________________________________ George H. Watson, Ph.D. Dean of the College of Arts and Sciences Approved: __________________________________________________________ James G. Richards, Ph.D. Vice Provost for Graduate and Professional Education I certify that I have read this dissertation and that in my opinion it meets the academic and professional standard required by the University as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Signed: __________________________________________________________ John Byrne, Ph.D. Professor in charge of dissertation I certify that I have read this dissertation and that in my opinion it meets the academic and professional standard required by the University as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Signed: __________________________________________________________ Young-Doo Wang, Ph.D. Member of dissertation committee I certify that I have read this dissertation and that in my opinion it meets the academic and professional standard required by the University as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Signed: __________________________________________________________ Catrinus Jepma, Ph.D. Member of dissertation committee I certify that I have read this dissertation and that in my opinion it meets the academic and professional standard required by the University as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Signed: __________________________________________________________ Wytze van der Gaast, Ph.D. Member of dissertation committee ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This dissertation could not have been completed without the unwavering support by my committee members. I sincerely thank the dedication shown by Dr. Byrne, Dr. Wang, Dr. Jepma, and Dr. van der Gaast to see this project through to the end. In particular, the long discussions and engaging conversations held with Dr. Byrne have strengthened the narrative of the dissertation substantially and helped to keep me on track for which I am deeply thankful. I additionally would like to thank the remaining CEEP faculty for their instructions and guidance throughout my four years here at CEEP. However, a project of this size and duration necessitates a broader support network. Fortunately, I could not have been more blessed as I am surrounded by sources of inspiration and support. My beautiful girlfriend Laura consistently helped me see the light at the end of the tunnel and her strong academic and social skills were a great source of support and distraction when in need of either. Weekly Sunday phone calls with my mom and dad helped me understand any problem I might encounter in this new culture by offering typical Dutch down-to-earth advice and guidance. Being the youngest in a family of strong academic performance, my brother and sisters provide inspiration as they lead by example. I consider myself lucky if I do only half as well as they are doing. Finally, my social network here in the U.S. as well as in the Netherlands provided sometimes much needed distraction and engaging talks about the future. Thank you, all. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................... xii LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................... xvi ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................. xxiii Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 1 1.1 The Challenge of Climate Change ............................................................ 3 1.1.1 Negotiating Climate Change Policy: a Multi-decadal Endeavour ...................................................................................... 3 1.1.1.1 Pre-1992: The Early Days of Negotiations .................... 4 1.1.1.2 1992: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) ........................................... 5 1.1.1.3 The Kyoto Protocol ...................................................... 11 1.1.1.4 Securing a Post-Kyoto Agreement ............................... 14 1.1.1.5 $)DLOXUHWR³6HDOWKH'HDO´ ......................................... 15 1.1.1.6 Recovery IURP&RSHQKDJHQ¶V)DLOXUH .......................... 17 1.1.2 A Characterology of Climate Change Action ............................. 21 1.1.2.1 Climate Change Action Principles ............................... 22 1.1.2.2 Top-Down Negotiation Framework ............................. 26 1.1.2.3 Targets-and-Timetables Approach ............................... 28 1.1.2.4 Short-Term Focus ......................................................... 29 1.1.2.5 Commodity-Based Policy Measures ............................ 29 1.1.2.6 Big Bang Approach ...................................................... 31 1.1.2.7 7KH.\RWR(UDµ)RUPXODRI6XFFHVV¶ ........................... 32 1.1.3 Examples of Climate Action ....................................................... 32 1.1.3.1 The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and carbon market trading ................................................... 32 1.1.3.2 Decoupling of Economic Activity and Carbon Emissions ...................................................................... 34 1.1.3.3 Bringing down competitive costs ................................. 35 1.1.3.4 3XUVXLWRIWKHµ*UHHQVKLIW¶ ............................................ 37 1.2 A Different Path? ..................................................................................... 38 1.3 Study Aim and Chapter Overview .......................................................... 41 v 2 THE LIMITATIONS OF THE KYOTO ERA APPROACH .......................... 44 2.1 The Sustainability Failure ........................................................................ 45 2.1.1 Rising GHG emissions ................................................................ 45 2.1.2 Ambition Gap. ............................................................................. 52 2.1.3 Economic growth vs. sustainability ............................................. 54 2.1.3.1 Economic Crisis, Absolute Decoupling, and the Environmental Kuznets Curve ..................................... 57 2.1.3.2 Carbon Markets and the CDM ..................................... 59 2.1.3.3 Theoretical account on the pervasiveness of market efficiency versus sustainability ..................................... 64 2.2 The Governance Failure: Negotiation Gridlock ...................................... 66 2.2.1 Multi-polarity .............................................................................. 66 2.2.2 ³6XSHU:LFNHG3UREOHPRI&OLPDWH&KDQJH´ ............................. 71 2.2.3 Further complications: mainstreaming, development vs. climate, adaptation. ...................................................................... 74 2.2.3.1 Development versus environmental protection ............ 75 2.2.3.2 Synergy potential between development and climate change ........................................................................... 75 2.2.3.3 The Rise of Adaptation as a Primary Component of Agreement .................................................................... 77 2.2.3.4 Climate Change Policy Integration .............................. 77 2.3 The Equity Failure ................................................................................... 78 2.4 Lessons Learned from the Kyoto era ....................................................... 84 3 CANDIDATES FOR A PARADIGM SHIFT ................................................. 87 3.1 Paradigms and the Paradigm Shift .......................................................... 88 3.1.1 Scientific Communities ............................................................... 89 3.1.2 Paradigms .................................................................................... 90 3.1.3 Normal Science and Paradigms ................................................... 91 3.1.4 Anomalies, Crisis, Extraordinary Science ................................... 95 3.1.5 Paradigm Shift ............................................................................. 96 3.1.6 %ULHI6XPPDU\$FFRXQWRI.XKQ¶V3DUDGLJP7KHRU\