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The Russia File The Russia File Russia and the West in an Unordered World Daniel S. Hamilton and Stefan Meister, Editors Relations between Russia and the West are at their lowest ebb The Russia File since the Cold War. “What to do about Russia” is a matter of daily debates among Europeans and Americans. Few of those debates directly include Russian views on contemporary challenges. This Russia and the West volume fills that gap by featuring authors from Russia, as well as non-Russian experts on Russia, who present Russian views on in an Unordered World relations with Western countries. Authors include: Daniel S. Hamilton Andrey Kortunov Stefan Meister Editors Daniel S. Hamilton and Stefan Meister, Vladislav Inozemtsev Nikolay Kozhanov Andrey Movchan Marcin Kaczmarski Mikhail Krutikhin Lyubov Shishelina Mark N. Katz Fyodor Lukyanov András Simonyi Richard Weitz Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik e.V. German Council on Foreign Relations Rauchstraße 17-18, 10787 Berlin Telephone +49 (0) 30 25 42 31-0 Fax +49 (0)30 25 42 31-16 [email protected] https://dgap.org/ Funded by the Center for Transatlantic Relations $35.00 The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies ISBN 978-1-947661-03-5 The Johns Hopkins University 53500> 1717 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, 8th Floor Washington, DC 20036 Tel: (202) 663-5880 Fax: (202) 663-5879 Email: [email protected] Website: http://transatlanticrelations.org 9 781947 661035 Daniel S. Hamilton and Stefan Meister, Editors The Russia File Russia and the West in an Unordered World Daniel S. Hamilton and Stefan Meister Editors Center for Transatlantic Relations The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies Johns Hopkins University German Council on Foreign Relations/ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik Daniel S. Hamilton and Stefan Meister, eds., The Russia File: Russia and the West in an Unordered World Washington, DC: Center for Transatlantic Relations, 2017. © Center for Transatlantic Relations, 2017 Center for Transatlantic Relations The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies The Johns Hopkins University 1717 Massachusetts Ave., NW, 8th Floor Washington, DC 20036 Tel: (202) 663-5880 Fax: (202) 663-5879 Email: [email protected] http://transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik DGAP German Council on Foreign Relations Rauchstraße 17-18, D-10787 Berlin Tel: +49 (0)30 25 42 31-0 Fax: +49 (0)30 25 42 31-16 Email: [email protected] Funded by the ISBN: 978-1-947661-03-5 Contents Preface and Acknowledgements . v Introduction . vii The Russia File: Russia and the West in an Unordered World Daniel S. Hamilton and Stefan Meister Chapter 1 . 1 Russia’s Changing Relations with the West: Prospects for a New Hybrid System Andrey Kortunov Chapter 2 . 19 Fuzzy Alliances, Flexible Relations Fyodor Lukyanov Chapter 3 . 31 Can Ukraine Change Russia? Vladislav Inozemtsev Chapter 4 . 47 Russia, the West, and Eastern Europe Lyubov Shishelina Chapter 5 . 63 Russia and the West: Energy Warfare Mikhail Krutikhin Chapter 6 . 81 The Worst Friends: EU-Russian Economic Relations at a Time of Hostility Andrey Movchan Chapter 7 . 101 Russian Foreign Policy in the Middle East: New Challenge for Western Interests? Nikolay Kozhanov Chapter 8 . 127 Russian and Western Engagement in the Broader Middle East Mark N. Katz iv THE RUSSIA FILE Chapter 9 . 137 Sino-Russian Relations and Transatlantic Ties Richard Weitz Chapter 10 . 149 Russia-China Relations and the West Marcin Kaczmarski Chapter 11 . 169 The Struggle for the Hearts and Minds of Russians András Simonyi About the Authors . 179 Preface and Acknowledgements Dramatic developments across Europe's east are testing fundamental assumptions that have guided Western policies over the past quarter cen - tury. At the same time, the United States, western and central Europe have been distracted by a range of home-grown challenges and dangers from other parts of the world, and have been divided over proper approaches to the vast and turbulent space of Europe that is not integrated into the EU and NATO. With this in mind, our two institutions, together with our partner, the Robert Bosch Stiftung, are engaged in an ongoing effort to bring together leading analysts and decision-makers from the United States, Russia, eastern and western Europe to address these new dynamics. In the first phase of our project we sought to build Western awareness, understanding and, where possible, renewed Western consensus on Eastern policy. We engaged senior officials, regional experts, scholars, foreign policy strategists and other opinion leaders in a Transatlantic Strategy Group as well as in a series of consultations in Kyiv, Moscow, Berlin and Washington, DC. Eminent authors were asked to contribute their per - spectives, which resulted in our book The Eastern Question: Russia, the West, and Europe’s Grey Zone . In the second phase of our project, we turned to east European scholars and opinion leaders for their perspectives on challenges facing their coun - tries and the region as a whole, including their views on the role of the United States, the EU and NATO, and their expectations of western and central European countries in this part of the world. We featured their views in a second volume, appropriately entitled Eastern Voices . In the third phase of our effort we engaged on the issues with Russian, American and European experts at meetings in Moscow, Berlin and Wash - ington, DC. We asked a diverse range of Russian interlocutors and experts on Russia for their perspectives, which we feature in this companion vol - ume, The Russia File: Russia and the West in an Unordered World . We want to thank Andrey Kortunov and his colleagues at the Russian Council on Foreign Relations (RIAC) for their hospitality in Moscow and for our open and frank discussions. v vi THE RUSSIA FILE We are particularly grateful to the Robert Bosch Stiftung for its support of our efforts, its continued commitment to transatlantic partnership, and its sustained engagement with eastern Europe and with Russia. We would also like to thank our colleagues Juulia Barthel, Hans Bin - nendijk, David Cadier, Britta Gade, Michael Haltzel, Vladislav Inozemtsev, Jason Moyer, Heidi Obermeyer and Andras Simonyi. The views expressed are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect those of any institution or government. Daniel S. Hamilton Stefan Meister Introduction The Russia File: Russia and the West in an Unordered World Daniel S. Hamilton and Stefan Meister “What to do about Russia” is a matter of almost daily debate among Euro - peans and Americans. Few of those debates directly include Russian views on contemporary challenges. To offer some perspective, we asked a diverse range of authors from Russia, as well as non-Russian experts on Russia, to present Russian views on relations with Western countries. This volume is the result. In a nutshell, these essays—written from wide and often contradictory points of view—tell us that Russia and the West are stuck. Experts and officials from each side are talking past each other, their views rooted in different perceptions and oriented to different interests and goals. An initial conclusion we can draw is that for today, and for the foreseeable future, the key question is not how both sides might develop a cooperative relationship or strike a new modus vivendi, but whether, and to what degree, they can peacefully coexist. Our Russian authors are very clear on this. Despite their different van - tage points, they believe the Russian leadership sees the West more as a faltering competitor than as a partner. While it may be crucial to agree on some terms for ongoing relations, a substantial improvement is not to be expected. Andrey Kortunov argues in his chapter that any significant change in current relations is likely to be a long, slow, and gradual process. He argues that the Kremlin currently has little reason to rethink its fun - damental approaches to the West. For Moscow, the current status quo is not just acceptable, it is preferable to potentially risky changes that could disrupt the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who for the moment feels he is on the “right side of history.” During the quarter century since the end of the Cold War, the paradigm prevailing in the West was of a robust, largely unchallenged, and gradually expanding Western-led order, in which a reformed Russia could potentially find a place. Discordant Russian views were often discounted or ignored. Today, as Russia challenges that order, this post-Cold War framework vii viii THE RUSSIA FILE seems to have become a paradigm lost. What our Russian authors make clear is that Russia has not somehow gotten lost in transition, it is going its own way. Fyodor Lukyanov asserts that Moscow is intent on establishing (or, in the mindset of the Kremlin, re-restablishing) itself as one of the critical poles in a multipolar world, in which great powers determine the rules of the road. Lukyanov posits that on this basis the Kremlin would be ready to negotiate the terms of a new global order, but that the West is still so focused on defending the old, and in his view, crumbling, post- Cold War order that it is unable, or unprepared, to discuss a very different model of relations. Russia’s new assertiveness comes at a moment when the West itself is more fluid and fractured than at any time over the past quarter century. Revisionist powers such as Russia and China have enhanced their critique of the prevailing Western-led order just as Western defenders of that order either seem exhausted or are fighting revisionists within their own ranks who are questioning the elite bargains and social underpinnings that have sustained that order. In fact, the most unpredictable actor in this complicated equation, surprisingly, has turned out to be the ultimate stew - ard and guardian of Western-led order, the United States.