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St. John’s in Newfoundland, where the Liberals’ clean sweep of Atlantic Canada’s 32 seats began on October 19. Istock photo The Atlantic: Anatomy of a Clean Sweep Charles J. McMillan

Justin Trudeau won Atlantic Canada not with money hange vs. Stay the Course, In- or tactics but with the classic investments of time and experience vs. Tested Lead- C ership—these were the slogans attention. As his longtime friend and adviser, Charles framing the narrative of Canada’s 15th McMillan, points out, Brian Mulroney thought Atlan- election since Pierre Trudeau came tic Canada was important enough to win that when to power in 1968. While the surpris- ing majority government achieved by he ran, as newly chosen leader, for a seat in the House, Justin Trudeau may confound the war he ran in Central Nova. That riding, along with every rooms of the NDP and Conservatives, the seeds of his victory were planted other Tory sure thing in the region, went to the Liber- in Atlantic Canada, as the new leader als this time. The blame for that, writes McMillan, started the arduous process of rebuild- goes to Stephen Harper. ing his party, from the ground up. Un- like in the other regions of Canada, the outcome was never in doubt—the Nanos nightly tracking polls, after all, showed the Liberals ranged from 45-

November/December 2015 34 55 per cent—so the only question was the seat count. All four provin- Indeed, Harper made a fatal decision to employ a cial governments quietly lent their William Gladstone metaphor of balanced budget and support, three were Liberal and the low taxes in the areas of Conservative support, like suburban fourth had former Premier Danny and rural Canada, where the economy is soft and Williams, extending hell and fury to- unemployment is high, particularly for young people. wards Stephen Harper.

Harper sowed the seeds of his own destruction in Atlantic Canada, not simply because of his early and dis- servative who championed the re- of winning campaigns, helped but missive comments about the region’s gion, and no strategy to take the 10 was not decisive: the Duffy trial and “culture of dependency,” but because seats that Harper first won and build court revelations filling the airwaves of ministers who did little to build a a regional base of 18-20. Few of his since August, deeply motivated the forward-looking organization with patronage appointments or Senate ABH supporters. Candidates like for- compelling candidates, a strategy to choices added to Conservative sup- mer Tory MLA Peter Penashue run- win incumbent seats from the Liber- port, and some (such as Mike Duffy) ning in Labrador exposed the weak- als, and a capacity to listen to voters, were deep distractions. As incum- ness of the Harper slate. premiers, and business stakehold- bents like Gerald Keddy or MacKay ers. Indeed, when asked to speak at decided to step aside, there was no During September, Harper evange- the well-attended funeral in Truro, desire to attract new stars. lists with next to zero resonance in of former Nova Scotia Senator Fred Atlantic Canada, such as Jason Ken- Dickson, a Conservative partisan Even worse, Harper and his war room ny, Pierre Poilievre, and Chris Alex- with friends in all parties across the catastrophically underestimated Jus- ander, defended Harper’s approach region, Harper not only said pub- tin Trudeau and the Liberal team. His to defence issues, refugees from Syr- licly that Fred wasn’t his friend but campaign spokesman, Kory Teneycke, ia, and Trudeau’s deficit spending added,“I have no friends.” In Atlan- telling the media before the first on infrastructure in a region where tic Canada, where communities are debate,“if (Trudeau) comes on stage good infrastructure ties the region close and friendships are lifelong, it with his pants on, he will probably together. Their lame pronounce- was a telling comment. exceed expectations,”typified both ments, tied to cracks in the vaunted Conservative hubris and the lack of For Harper, the headwinds in Atlan- Conservative war room, attracted lo- discipline from the top. Indeed, Harp- tic Canada were brutal. Local and na- cal media attention, and the barring er made a fatal decision to employ a tional polling showed Conservative veterans of groups from a Harper William Gladstone metaphor of bal- support in the low 20s for the past rally in Fredericton inflamed voter’s anced budget and low taxes in the three years, and in a region where in- distrust of peevish, central control. areas of Conservative support, like cumbency is a decided advantage, the That paranoia reinforced in the pub- suburban and rural Canada, where 13 Tory seats were all in play, includ- lic mind the Conservatives’ rejection the economy is soft and unemploy- ing the three in Nova Scotia, where of Ches Crosbie (son of John Crosbie, ment is high, particularly for young Conservative members, including Pe- who had worked tirelessly behind the people. Paradoxically, in the areas of ter MacKay in Central Nova, decided scenes to get Danny Williams and Harper weakness, urban and multi- not to reoffer. Further, party insiders Stephen Harper on speaking terms) cultural cities, the economy is strong, knew from recent provincial elec- as a candidate. The last two weeks in mainly due to low interest rates and tions—three won by the Liberals— Atlantic Canada prophesied the pos- residential construction. that Trudeau had a chance in all 32 sible results nationally. seats but 26-27 were very likely. The By contrast, well before the election NDP hoped to gain three and Harper was called, Trudeau toured the re- he campaign strategists for hoped to hold at least three Cabinet gion regularly, taking his family on each party ended up with to- members—Gail Shea in Cardigan, holidays to Atlantic Canada, and T tally different tactics. Mulcair Keith Ashfield in Fredericton, and at one farm picnic in 2014 at Law- toured the region sparingly, hoping Bernard Valcourt in Edmunston. rence MacAulay’s Cardigan, PEI rid- to save the lone NDP seat in Halifax ing, a packed crowd of 5,000 people and that three-way splits might win ut other factors added to the showed up. Trudeau, reflecting on a few seats elsewhere. Harper visited headwinds. Changes to the previous leaders of various parties, early, and then late in the campaign, B Employment Insurance Act started the rebuilding process at the defensively visiting ridings held by made it more difficult for seasonal riding level, attracting well-known Conservatives, including—in the last workers to receive benefits. In no local candidates, many not overly days—Fredericton, only to have the province was there a leading Con- partisan. Luck, that glorious feature Conservative candidate lose his seat.

Policy 35 By contrast, as Liberal support cus, despite repeated visits by the ern Canada, he will not introduce climbed daily, if only incrementally Prime Minister in support of incum- policies like the National Energy Pro- in Quebec, the Liberal team put the bent Scott Armstrong. gram that hurt a region and a prov- chartered jet into high gear, visiting ince so dramatically. The Atlantic The 32-seat sweep, plus the Gaspé Tory and NDP incumbent ridings, Caucus has an unprecedented oppor- riding representing Magdalen Islands with volunteers organizing huge ral- tunity to introduce bold initiatives (orginally part of the Catholic Diocese lies and Trudeau drumming home to reduce or eliminate their have-not his ballot question: real change. The of Charlottetown), once represented provincially by René Lévesque (who status, such as building on traditional bandwagon effect shrewdly played off strengths but becoming an exporting media reaction to a man in motion was born in Campbellton, NB) paral- superstar in energy, agriculture, edu- asking for support from dejected and leled the huge gains across the coun- cation, and food products. rejected Conservatives. That and the try. Trudeau’s victory was now in the Liberal advertising blitz, timed per- history books, coming from third to Timing, as Bobby Kennedy noted, is first, winning so many new seats in fectly for maximum impact, turned everything in politics. Justin Trudeau, all provinces, rebuilding Liberal for- the election into a two-way race. By a student of politics, timed his support tunes in their base, French Canada, election day, the decision was easy: perfectly, and has a clear mandate for and attracting immense support in Harper or Trudeau. change. To the world, the new PM urban Canada. Unlike his father in said that Canada is back. To Ottawa, In Atlantic Canada, many Conserva- 1968, he surrounds himself with po- he might have added: magnanimity is tive candidates came third; Conser- litical pros, and like Brian Mulroney in play. To the pros in the Tory and vative ministers like Bernard Valcourt in 1984, or Jean Chrétien in 1993, he and Gail Shea. Most embarrassingly, is unlikely to turn the political side of NDP campaign war rooms, it is now

Peter MacKay’s riding, a Tory strong- the party into the PMO. time to get a new education. hold his father, Elmer, first won in 1971, and where Brian Mulroney ran The new PM controls unequivocally Charles J. McMillan, a native of in 1983 when he first became leader, the political centre of Canadian poli- Charlottetown, is Professor of Strategic voted Liberal. The neighbouring seat, tics, in all regions, and will learn from Management at York University. once held by Robert Coates, was won other prime ministers how to manage He served as senior policy adviser by Bill Casey, the ex-Conservative his caucus. Further, unlike his father, to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney. who was expelled from Harper’s cau- who lacked a strong caucus in West- [email protected]

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November/December 2015