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r e J CONTENTS 11 03 Races to Watch Liberal War Room Top 25 juiciest races to Campaigning ‘from the front’ watch in this election will test Liberal strategists By Aidan Chamandy By Abbas Rana & Neil Moss 04 12

Conservative Political advertising War Room Liberal election ad ‘head and Tried and tested team shoulders’ above Conservative, behind Conservative Party’s NDP offerings, says bid to return to government U.S. campaign guru By Laura Ryckewaert By Peter Mazereeuw 07 14

NDP War Room Polls Familiar faces fi ll NDP More parties, more polls, campaign team, led by and voter ‘malaise’: tracking Jennifer Howard 2019 trickier, pollsters say By Laura Ryckewaert By Samantha Wright Allen 08 15 Bloc War Room Leaders’ Tours Former PQ organizers behind Face the nation: leaders’ Bloc Québécois’ fall federal tours hint at parties’ campaign vulnerabilities, seats in play By Laura Ryckewaert By Beatrice Paez 09 18

Greens Media War Room On the road again: many media Greens running biggest outlets taking ‘fl exible’ approach federal campaign yet, to party leaders’ tour coverage led by Jonathan Dickie By Mike Lapointe By Laura Ryckewaert 10 19 Issues People’s Party War Room A crisp look at the top Small team working to help issues in this federal realize People’s Party’s big election campaign ambitions this fall By Palak Mangat By Laura Ryckewaert

Justin Trudeau and Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, pictured on Sept. 11, 2019, walking from their house on the grounds of Rideau Hall to meet with Gov.-Gen. Julie Payette who dissolved the 42nd Parliament, launching Canada’s 43rd election. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade

INSIDER’S GUIDE EDITORIAL CARTOONIST Michael De Adder PRODUCTION Please send letters to the editor to the above COLUMNISTS Cameron Ahmad, Andrew Caddell, Andrew Cardozo, PRODUCTION MANAGER Benoit Deneault street address or e-mail to [email protected]. PUBLISHERS Anne Marie Creskey, Jim Creskey, Ross Dickson John Chenier, Sheila Copps, Éric Couture, David Crane, Jim Creskey, SENIOR GRAPHIC, ONLINE DESIGNER Joey Sabourin Deadline is Wednesday at noon, Ottawa time, for GENERAL MANAGER, CFO Andrew Morrow Murray Dobbin, Gwynne Dyer, Michael Geist, Dennis Gruending, Phil DESIGN MANAGER Serena Masonde the Monday edition and Friday at noon for the Gurski, Cory Hann, Michael Harris, Erica Ifill, Joe Jordan, Amy Kishek, Rod WEB DESIGNER Jean-Francois Lavoie VP OF CONTENT LICENSING SALES Sean Hansel Wednesday edition. Please include your full name, The Hill EDITORIAL Leggett, Rose LeMay, Alex Marland, Arthur Milnes, Nancy Peckford, Tim ASSISTANT WEB DESIGNER Ian Peralta CIRCULATION MANAGER Dan Lahey address and daytime phone number. EDITOR Kate Malloy Powers, Mélanie Richer, Susan Riley, Ken Rubin, Evan Sotiropoulos, Scott Times reserves the right to edit letters. Letters do MANAGING EDITOR Charelle Evelyn Taylor, Lisa Van Dusen, Nelson Wiseman, and Les Whittington. CIRCULATION ADMINISTRATION not reflect the views of The Hill Times. Thank you. DEPUTY EDITORS Peter Mazereeuw, Laura Ryckewart DIRECTOR OF READER ENGAGEMENT Chris Rivoire HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGER Tracey Wale Publications Mail Agreement No. 40068926 ASSISTANT DEPUTY EDITOR Abbas Rana ADVERTISING DIRECTOR OF MARKETING Leslie Dickson RETURN UNDELIVERABLE CANADIAN DIGITAL EDITOR Beatrice Paez VICE PRESIDENT MARKETING AND SUBSCRIPTIONS & LICENSING EXECUTIVES Corey Coté Published every Monday and Wednesday ADDRESSES TO: CIRCULATION DEPT. NEWS REPORTERS Aidan Chamandy, Mike Lapointe, MULTIMEDIA SALES Steve MacDonald by Hill Times Publishing Inc. 246 Queen Street Suite 200, Ottawa, ON K1P 5E4 Neil Moss, Samantha Wright Allen, and Palak Mangat DIRECTORS OF BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT DELIVERY INQUIRIES 246 Queen Street, Ottawa, Ontario K1P 5E4 PHOTOGRAPHERS Sam Garcia, Andrew Meade, Craig Caldbick, Martin Reaume, Ulle Baum CMCA 2012 Better [email protected] (613) 232-5952 • Fax (613) 232-9055 • www.hilltimes.com Newspaper AUDITED and Cynthia Münster ADVERTISING MARKETING DIRECTOR Chris Peixoto 613-288-1146 Canadian Publications Mail Agreement No. 40068926 Winner THE HILL TIMES | MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 3 INSIDER’S GUIDE TO ELECTION 2019

time, he faced allegations that Prime Minister Justin he and other senior government Trudeau called the federal officials had inappropriately pres- election last week. Election sured then-justice minister Jody Day is Oct. 21, and the Wilson-Raybould (Vancouver CAMPAIGNING Liberals entered the Granville, B.C.) to intervene and campaign polling nearly get a deferred prosecution agree- evenly with the Conservative ment for the SNC-Lavalin, which Party. The Hill Times has been charged with corruption photograph by Andrew Meade offences. In his resignation let- ‘FROM THE ter, Mr. Butts strenuously denied the allegation and said he was stepping aside because he was becoming a distraction for the government. FRONT’ Mr. Butts has now returned to help out the Trudeau government in the election as a senior adviser and is working out of the Liberal campaign war room located on Al- WILL TEST bert street. In the last election, he was with Mr. Trudeau on the plane, but this time Ms. Telford is travel- ling with the prime minister, along with Mr. Reporter, now a lawyer, LIBERAL and senior PMO staffer Ben Chin. PMO director of communications Cameron Ahmad, PMO press secretary Chantal Gagnon, and PMO outreach director Andrée STRATEGISTS Lynn-Hallé are also accompanying Mr. Trudeau on tour. Meanwhile, the campaign’s media team is led by Zita Astra- vas, chief of staff to Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan (Vancouver South, B.C.). She is being assisted by media tour coordinator Caro- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is relying on same enthusiasm they had four staffers running the national line Seguin, and spokespersons years before. campaign. Joseph Pickerill, Guy Gallant, the same senior strategists to get re-elected In the current campaign, the Mr. Broadhurst is heading the Carlene Variyan, Pierre-Olivier SNC-Lavalin controversy is still campaign and is in charge of bud- Herbert, and Eleanore Catenaro. who brought him from third-place party hounding the Liberals, and mak- gets and overall strategy, and is Former PMO director of opera- leader in the House to the Prime Minister’s ing matters more complicated for being assisted by his deputy, Mr. tions John Zerucelli is overseeing Liberal MPs. Opinion polls show Duchesneau, who is also serving the tour while PMO deputy direc- Office in 2015. But it’s a whole new ball game the Grits and Conservatives are as the campaign’s special adviser tor of outreach Vandana Kattar- running neck and neck going into for Quebec. In the last campaign, Miller is in charge of campaign this time, after four years in power. the campaign. Ms. Telford served as campaign outreach. Liberal Party president According to CBC’s Canada director. Suzanne Cowan is also work- Poll Tracker, the Liberals and Mr. Butts, a close friend and ing out of the Ottawa campaign BY ABBAS RANA the Conservatives were tied at senior adviser to Mr. Trudeau, headquarters. dynamics of the current cam- 33.8 per cent on the day the writ left his job as PM’s principal Brian Clow, a senior PMO aide he senior Liberal paign for the Liberals are very was dropped. The New Demo- secretary in mid-February when who was the executive director of strategists running different from those at play in crats, according to the aggre- the SNC-Lavalin affair started to Canada-U.S. relations and issues the governing party’s the 2015 election. At the time, gation of all publicly available make national headlines. At the management, is now overseeing re-election campaign the Liberals were the third-place data, were in third place at 12.9 the rapid response unit, to re- made history in 2015 party, and gained unprecedented per cent, and the Green Party spond to attacks from opposition Tby bringing the party from third success jumping from third to was close in fourth place at 10.7 parties. In the PMO, he worked Senior Liberal to first place, but the test for the first with a majority government, percent. closely with Mr. Butts and Ms. Tel- same team now is if they can going from 34 to 184 seats in the Now, the key test for the staffers also holding ford on the USMCA negotiations. defend the government’s four- space of only one election. Liberals is if they can win an- senior provincial Tom Pitfield, a friend of Mr. year record and get their party The current campaign is the other mandate, and whether it’s Trudeau, whose company Data re-elected with a second mandate first since 2006 when the Liberals a majority or a minority. If the campaign positions Sciences Inc. has designed the on Oct. 21. are running for re-election as the Trudeau Liberals lose this elec- outreach data base for the party “The 2015 incumbent tion, it will be only the third time iberal sources told The called Liberalist, is heading the campaign by government; in Canadian political history that LHill Times that Adam digital campaign. any definition in 2008 and a majority government was not Carroll, former chief of staff Kate Purchase, executive was an ex- 2011, the Ste- re-elected for a second mandate. to Treasury Board President director of communications and tremely well- phen Harper The first time it happened was in Joyce Murray (Vancouver planning, is working in the cam- run campaign. Conserva- 1878, when John A. Macdonald Quadra, B.C.), is serving paign headquarters as the chief They took tives were defeated then-incumbent prime as the Ontario campaign content strategist overseeing ads, advantage of in power. In minister Alexander Mackenzie’s director. He held the same debates, communications, and factors they 2015, the Lib- Liberal government, and the position in the 2015 federal issues. did not con- erals were on second time was in 1935 when election. In this position, Mr. Matt Stickney, chief of staff trol, but they the offensive the-Liberal Party leader William Carroll is assisted by three to Procurement Minister Carla took advan- against the Lyon Mackenzie King ousted deputies, including Jamie Qualtrough (Delta, B.C.) is serv- tage of,” said then-govern- then-incumbent prime minister Kippen, Mike Rosati, and ing as the party’s national field Joe Jordan, a ing Con- R.B. Bennett’s Conservative gov- Lindsay Hunter. director. former Lib- servatives ernment. Cyndi Jenkins, chief of Other senior ministerial staff- eral MP and during the For the current campaign, staff to Minister of Indig- ers working out of the national parliamentary campaign, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau enous Services Seamus campaign office include Daniel but now the (Papineau, Que.) is relying on O’Regan (St. John’s South- secretary to Jeremy Broadhurst, Zita Astravas, Lauzon, chief of staff to Tourism opposition mostly the same senior staffers Mount Pearl, Nfld. and former prime and Katie Telford, pictured in this file Minister Melanie Joly (Ahuntsic- parties are on who helped him win the 2015 Labrador), is the campaign minister Jean photo in, Ottawa, are top players on the Cartierville, Que.) as director the offensive campaign, and have served director for Atlantic Canada; Chrétien, in Liberals re-election bid. The Hill Times of communications and policy; and the Lib- in senior positions within his Marie-Laurence Lapointe, an interview file photograph Laura D’Angelo in charge of last week. erals have to government since then. They Quebec assistant in the budget and operations; Marci “What will defend their include Gerald Butts, the former PMO, is heading the Que- Surkes, chief of staff to Public be interesting to see [is] whether four-year record. PMO principal secretary; Katie bec campaign; Cory Pike, Safety Minister Ralph Goodale or not the same group are able to Three-quarters of the 184 Telford, the PMO chief of staff; chief of staff to Minister of (Regina-Wascana, Sask.), who is drive a campaign from the front, Liberals elected in 2015 were Jeremy Broadhurst, the former Rural Economic Develop- overseeing policy; Sarah Welch, as opposed to the third-place rookies, and are now seeking chief of staff to foreign affairs ment Bernadette Jordan chief to Indigenous and Northern party.” re-election for the first time. For Minister Chrystia Freeland (Uni- (South Shore-St. Margaret’s Affairs Minister Carolyn Bennett The 40-day, high-stakes elec- any government or a first-term versity-Rosedale, Ont.); Cyrus N.S.), is the overseeing the (Toronto-St. Paul’s, Ont.); and tion campaign started on Tuesday, MP, the re-election campaign is Reporter, a former PMO senior Prairies; and Shaun Goven- Laura D’Angelo, former PMO se- Sept. 11 and will wrap up with the often harder than the one that adviser; and Olivier Duch- der, director of operations to nior manager of executive office, election on Oct. 21. brings them to power. They have esneau, former chief of staff Ms. Qualtrough, is serving as who is overseeing and budget and Mr. Jordan, who now works to defend the government’s re- to Jean Yves-Duclos (Quebec, campaign director for British operations. as a senior associate with the cord, and rank and file supporters Que.). The Globe and Mail first Columbia. [email protected] Bluesky Strategy Group, said the and voters usually don’t have the reported the names of senior The Hill Times 4 MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 | THE HILL TIMES THE HILL TIMES | MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 5 INSIDER’S GUIDE TO ELECTION 2019

but we’re definitely going to win more.” Specifically, he said “there’s definitely a bunch in Winnipeg we can take back” along with ridings in Calgary and Edmonton. But he also noted that “every election the bulk of swing seats is always in Ontario,” where 121 federal seats are up for grabs, in particular in Toronto and TRIED its surrounding region. The Conservatives were first to get candidates in place for all 338 federal ridings, doing so as of Sept. 3. Supporting Mr. Marshall are two deputy campaign managers: Dustin Van Vugt, who will stick to Ottawa where the party’s war room AND is based, and Marc-André Leclerc, who will be on the campaign trail, as reported by The Toronto Star. Chief of staff to Mr. Scheer on the Hill since May 2018, Mr. Leclerc was previously a senior Quebec adviser and deputy chief Top Conservative strategists: Directors of communications Cory Hann, left, Brock Harrison, centre, and associate director of staff in the OLO. He was Que- of communications Veronica Green. Photographs courtesy of LinkedIn and Twitter bec director for Mr. Scheer’s 2017 TESTED leadership campaign, and is a for- mer Quebec organizer and deputy Star. Ms. Potter was part of the tor to then-intergovernmental Serving as press secretaries on director of communications for 2017 leadership campaign team and affairs minister Peter Penashue. the road with the leader are Dan- the federal party. A former has spent the last few years as prin- Mr. Harrison is a former com- iel Schow and Virginie Bonneau. Harper-era cabinet chief of staff, cipal secretary to Mr. Scheer on the munications director for the A former constituency assistant to Mr. Van Vugt has been executive Hill. She’s a former parliamentary Alberta Wildrose Party, worked Conservative MP Garnett Genuis director of the Conservative Party affairs director to then-government for Ed Stelmach’s Progressive (Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatch- since 2014, and as such, also led House leader Jay Hill and was chief Conservative government, was ewan, Alta.), Mr. Schow was TEAM election readiness efforts leading of staff to Mr. Scheer during his run vice-president of operations for first hired as executive assistant up to the 2015 campaign. as Speaker of the House of Com- the Alberta Enterprise Group, and and English press secretary to In charge of the party’s war mons from 2011 to 2015. was a reporter with The Kingston Mr. Scheer in August 2017. Ms. room in Ottawa is Mike MacDonell, Leading communications work Whig-Standard. Bonneau is another Harper-era another former member of Mr. for the campaign is the party’s Reporting to Mr. Harrison are cabinet staffer and has been as- behind Conservative director of communications of the associate director of media rela- sociate director of media relations Scheer’s leadership campaign. Since then, he’s been director of last six years, Cory Hann, who’s tions Simon Jefferies and associ- and French press secretary to Mr. election readiness at the party. He’s running the communications shop ate director of communications Scheer since 2017. Conservative Leader Andrew also a former Question Period ad- in the Conservative war room, and Veronica Green. Both previously Stephen McCreary, digital oper- Party’s bid to return Scheer’s party needs to hold onto viser in the Conservative OLO un- Brock Harrison, who’s been director tackled communications for On- ations director for the party since its 95 incumbent seats and pick der interim leader Rona Ambrose. of communications to Mr. Scheer on tario Progressive Conservative early 2016 and a former manager up another 75 to hope to form a Mr. Scheer’s longtime aide Ken- the Hill since moving from Alberta Premier Doug Ford, Ms. Green as of new media and marketing to Mr. majority government this fall. zie Potter is expected to continue to Ottawa in June 2018. director of communications and Harper as prime minister, is also The Hill Times photograph to be at the leader’s side, including A former political operations Mr. Jefferies as director of media part of the campaign team. to government by Andrew Meade “periodically” on the road during officer for the party, Mr. Hann was relations, before moving to Ottawa [email protected] the campaign, as reported by The previously communications direc- to join Mr. Scheer’s OLO in June. The Hill Times

The Conservative Hamish Marshall is in charge as national Party did not respond to requests for an in- campaign manager, supported by terview for this piece. Mr. Marshall was two deputy campaign managers: tapped to run the Diabetes hurts all Dustin Van Vugt and Marc-André Leclerc. Conservative Party’s DIABETES 2019 campaign Canadians. early on, having been named in 2017, shortly after hav- 360 With 11 million Canadians now living with BY LAURA RYCKEWAERT Budget Office to be costed; in ing run Mr. Scheer’s recent months, Mr. Scheer has successful leadership diabetes or prediabetes, and healthcare costs onservative Leader An- spoken, among other things, of campaign, which saw drew Scheer and team ending the federal carbon tax, the five-term MP for nearly $30 billion per year, diabetes is a are gunning to form promoting private (rather than Regina-Qu’Appelle, the next government in government) refugee sponsor- Sask., take the disease that impacts every Canadian. Without October, and the party’s ships and emphasizing economic party’s helm in May Ccampaign team, led by former immigration, making maternity of that year. a nation-wide plan, the toll diabetes takes will party pollster Hamish Marshall, benefits tax-free, moving Canada’s A former Hill includes many tried and tested embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, staffer under Stephen strategists and organizers. and helping fund a new French- Harper’s leadership, Kenzie Potter will ‘periodically’ join Mr. Scheer on continue to grow. “Effectively, [running a na- language university in Ontario. Its Mr. Marshall did the road during the campaign, as reported by The tional campaign] it’s like building chosen campaign slogan is, “It’s outreach work in Mr. Star. Photograph courtesy of LinkedIn a company with a few hundred time for you to get ahead.” Harper’s Official Op- Help us end the epidemic. employees that’s going to spend position tens of millions of dollars in a five- Leader’s Office from Metro Vancouver. Currently on Call on federal political parties to support a week period, and it would be really, 2002 to 2003 and later a leave of absence, Mr. Marshall really easy to spend all that money was manager of stra- is now a research partner with nation-wide diabetes strategy now. badly in five weeks, but if you want tegic planning in his strategy firm ONE Persuades in to get the biggest bang for your office as prime minis- Toronto. buck, it’s all about planning,” said ter. He was the party’s With 95 incumbent federal Diabetes 360° is the solution! Mr. Marshall in an interview with pollster during its seats heading into the election, the CBC’s Éric Grenier in February. successful 2008 federal Conservatives need to win those www.diabetes.ca/strategy “I’ve spent an unbelievable election campaign. Off again and pick up another 75 seats amount of my time figuring out how the Hill, Mr. Marshall to form a majority government. to make sure that we spend every has been a research di- Conservatives are banking on penny and use every minute of those rector with Angus Reid picking up seats in Atlantic Canada, five weeks to a maximum value.” Strategies, president a region the Liberals swept entirely Having for years consistently of Torch Agency, and, in 2015: “You can have an argu- outstripped the Liberals in fund- perhaps most notori- ment about how many exactly, but raising, the Conservatives won’t ously, is a former board we’re definitely going to win more struggle to meet the $28.1-million member for Rebel Me- [there],” said Mr. Marshall in the national expense limit. Already, dia (that relationship February interview. He also pointed the party has been pumping out ended in 2017), among to Quebec, where the party man- ads across various platforms, other past jobs. He also aged to pick up a seat (Chicoutimi- including online, on the radio, and led the ultimately suc- Le Fjord) in a June 2018 byelection in national TV spots. cessful “No TransLinx as an anticipated growth area, The Conservative platform has Mike MacDonell is running the Conservative war Tax” campaign during along with the Prairies, saying: been given to the Parliamentary room. Photograph courtesy of LinkedIn a 2015 referendum in “there’s not a lot left to win [there]

THE HILL TIMES | MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 7 INSIDER’S GUIDE TO ELECTIONO 2019 FAMILIAR FACES FILL NDP CAMPAIGN TEAM, LED BY

JENNIFER Veteran NDPers including Anne McGrath, Michael Balagus, Ray Guardia, and Jennifer Howard are behind NDP Leader Jagmeet HOWARD Singh’s campaign. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade

and will otherwise be travelling by 38.7 per cent, the Conservatives at to represent Calgary-Varsity, Alta., Community Housing Corporation, The federal NDP bus, including plenty of stops in 33.3 per cent, the Greens at almost in the election, which saw the NDP before returning to work for Mr. south-western Ontario, B.C.’s Lower six per cent, the Bloc at three per unseated by the United Conservative Singh on the Hill; she was promot- campaign team Mainland, and Vancouver Island. cent, and the People’s Party at 1.4 Party. She moved back to Ottawa ed to director of communications is stocked with The NDP’s platform per cent. from Calgary in June. and media earlier this year. She’s was released in June Veteran party Glen Sanford is once again the also previously tackled commu- experienced and includes commit- strategist Michael NDP’s B.C. campaign director. He did nications for the Nova Scotia and ments to make post-sec- Balagus is once again the same for the federal party during Newfoundland and Labrador NDP. organizers, including ondary education part lending a hand to the 2011 and 2015 elections, and was Oliver Paré is digital director of the public education the federal NDP as a deputy campaign director for the B.C. for the NDP campaign. He played people who backed system, introduce special adviser for the NDP’s successful 2017 campaign. the same role on the Ontario NDP’s national pharmacare, campaign and will be Marie-Eve St-Onge is the NDP’s 2018 campaign, having been digital Ontario NDP Leader introduce a $15-an-hour in charge of the party’s Quebec campaign director. She’s director for the provincial party Andrea Horwath in minimum wage, create war room. Chief of been a parliamentary assistant since early 2016, and more recently 500,000 affordable staff to Ontario NDP to Mr. Boulerice on the Hill since has been its head of engagement. 2018 and B.C. Premier housing units, require Jennifer Howard is the Leader Andrea Hor- January 2016 and before then spent He’s a former campaign manager telecommunication NDP’s campaign director. wath since 2014, Mr. almost a year and a half working for Québec Solidaire in Outremont, John Horgan in 2017. companies to cap Photo courtesy of Facebook Balagus stepped in as fulltime in his Montreal constitu- Que., in 2014, and for now-Montreal cellphone and internet acting chief of staff to ency offi ce, where she previously mayor Valerie Plante’s Projet Mon- bills, continue carbon pricing, and Mr. Singh for a couple of months in interned. Also advising the cam- treal in 2013, amongst other past introduce a one per cent wealth 2018 after Willy Blomme’s sudden paign is Ray Guardia, a former chief experience. BY LAURA RYCKEWAERT tax on Canadians with more than exit from the role that October. He of staff to then-leader Thomas Mul- A former associate director of $20-million, among other things. was director of the Ontario party’s cair who was Quebec training and develop- he NDP has struggled One-third of the 44 NDP MPs 2018 campaign, previously worked campaign director for ment for the federal to recover its pre-2015 elected in 2015 are, for one reason or for a number of former Mani- the NDP in 2011. party, Danielle Samp- strength in the years since another, not seeking re-election this toba NDP premiers (including Mr. Working with Ms. son is deputy campaign the last election, but it’s year. Most recently, last month, the Selinger), and is a former head of St-Onge is Sarah An- director for fi eld orga- Theading into the fall campaign NDP dropped incumbent Quebec the Ontario Nurses’ Association. drews, who is director nization; she previously with an experienced team of strat- MP Pierre Nantel, who’s represented He and Ms. Howard—who of communications for did the same during egist and organizers at its back. Longueuil-Saint-Hubert since 2011, crossed paths professionally at the the Quebec campaign. the 2015 election. Since It’s been suggested that goal amid news he was in talks to run Manitoba legislature—have been Ms. Andrews previ- then, she’s been work- No. 1 for the party and its new for another party; that party was the focused on planning the campaign ously ran the NDP’s ing for the NDP on the leader, Jagmeet Singh, this elec- Green Party, for which Mr. Nantel is since May, as noted in an August communications shop Hill, fi rst as director tion is simply hanging on to recog- now a nominated candidate. profi le of Ms. Howard in Maclean’s. on Parliament Hill, Adviser Michael Balagus of outreach, and more nized party status in the House of Former Manitoba cabinet minis- Quebec NDP MP and deputy and before then was a is in charge of the NDP’s recently, since Febru- Commons, requiring 12 MPs, if not ter Jennifer Howard is in charge of leader Alexandre Boulerice (Rose- caucus press secretary. war room. Photo handout ary, as deputy chief of the 40-odd seats it won in 2015. the NDP’s election campaign. She mont-La Petite-Patrie, Que.) and She’s also a former as- staff to Mr. Singh. The NDP started September was brought in to run Mr. Singh’s Maria Della Mattia, a former special sistant to NDP MP Peter Julian and Jesse Calvert is the NDP’s opera- by kicking its campaign into high leader’s offi ce on the Hill as chief of adviser to B.C. NDP Premier John since leaving the Hill in 2018 has tions director, a role he’s held since gear. On Sept. 2, after hitting staff in December 2018 and before Horgan, are campaign co-chairs. been working for the Federation of March 2018. A former Ontario NDP pause on advertising spending then was executive director of the Ms. Della Mattia was a special ad- Canadian Municipalities. aide, including as a special events in July, the party released a new, Public Service Alliance of Canada. viser on the bus with Ontario NDP Reporting to Ms. Andrews is and community outreach coordi- 30-second ad featuring Mr. Singh Ms. Howard was a member of Leader Andrea Horwath during the Guillaume Francouer, press secre- nator to Ms. Horwath as leader, to be aired nationally online and Manitoba’s legislative assembly 2018 provincial election. Oversee- tary for Quebec. He’s been doing Mr. Calvert was deputy director of on TV, along with a separate, from 2007 to 2016 and held a num- ing it all is NDP national director communications work for the party events for the NDP during the 2015 Quebec-specifi c version, and its ber of portfolios in then-Manitoba Melissa Bruno, who’s been at the since 2016 and before then worked election, among other past roles. campaign slogan: “In it for you.” NDP premier Greg Selinger’s party’s helm since January 2018. for now-Montreal mayor Valerie George Soule has returned The party offi cially launched cabinet, including as minister of fi - Also weighing in with some Plante’s Project Montréal during its to help advise the federal NDP its campaign in former NDP nance, family services and labour, senior-level advice, albeit on a vol- time in opposition in the city. campaign. A former press secretary leader Jack Layton’s old riding of and labour and immigration. unteer basis, is NDP stalwart Anne Mélanie Richer is director of to Mr. Layton and later director of Toronto-Danforth, Ont., on Sept. 8, The NDP was polling at 15.7 per McGrath. A former chief of staff to communications for the cam- media relations on the Hill under unveiling the campaign tour bus cent as of Aug. 30, according to Na- then-NDP leader Jack Layton and paign, working out of the NDP’s Mr. Mulcair, Mr. Soule left Ottawa and holding an evening rally. The nos Research’s weekly national bal- a former national director of the Ottawa war room. in 2016 to become chief of staff to day before, Mr. Singh had been lot tracker, while the Liberals were federal party, Ms. McGrath was in Ms. Richer was a campaign then-Saskatchewan NDP leader in Ottawa to offi cially open the at 35.4 per cent, the Conservatives charge of the NDP’s 2015 and was a press secretary during the 2015 Trent Wotherspoon. In 2018, he be- party’s campaign headquarters. at 31.33 per cent, the Greens at 10.6 senior adviser on the 2011 campaign. federal election and went on to came director of digital strategy to Having consistently lagged per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 4.4 She left Ottawa to become deputy join the NDP leader’s offi ce on the Ms. Notley as the then-Alberta pre- behind the Liberals and Conserva- per cent, and the People’s Party at chief of staff to then-Alberta NDP Hill in early 2016, starting as a tour mier. More recently, he’s been doing tives in fundraising—and even the 1.6 per cent. That’s a slight decrease premier Rachel Notley in January coordinator and ending as a caucus communications for the Canadian Greens in the most recent quarter of from the start of the year, when the 2016. Ms. McGrath ran as a provin- press secretary in March 2018. Union of Public Sector Employees. 2019—the NDP will reportedly use a ballot tracker pegged it at 16.7 per cial candidate for the NDP in Alberta She spent about half a year doing [email protected] plane for only some of the campaign, cent as of Jan. 4, with the Liberals at earlier this, ultimately losing her bid communications for the Ottawa The Hill Times 8 MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 | THE HILL TIMES INSIDER’S GUIDE TO ELECTIONO 2019

Former PQ organizers behind BLOC QUÉBÉCOIS’ fall federal campaign

BY LAURA RYCKEWAERT leader at the Quebec National Assem- Carl Pilotte is the Bloc Québécois’ campaign director, bly and was chief of staff to its whip. loc Québécois Leader Yves- Veteran politico France Amyot, François Blanchet has pro- while France Amyot is director of communications niece of former Parti Québécois jected his party will at least leader and Quebec premier René double its 10-seat incumbent and Christian Picard is director of organization. Lévesque, is the Bloc campaign’s Bcaucus and win more than 20 federal communications director. seats this October, with a campaign A former federal government staffer, being run by Carl Pilotte. Ms. Amyot was director of communica- Mr. Blanchet made his projection in In Quebec, support for the Bloc was Que., where recently-former NDP MP tions for the Bloc from 2004 to 2011, re- an interview in French with L’actualité at around 17.9 per cent as of Aug. 30, Pierre Nantel is now running for re- turning to the party after years working in July, saying his party had reorga- according to Nanos Research’s weekly election as a Green. Mr. Blanchet will for ministers in former Quebec premier nized and moved past the infi ghting national ballot tracker, with the Liber- seek his seat in the riding of Beloeil- Lucien Bouchard’s cabinet. Along with that had plagued it under former als at 42.1 per cent, the Conservatives Chambly, which NDP MP Matthew decades of political work, Ms. Amyot leader Martine Ouellet. He said the at 15.5 per cent, the NDP at 12.2 per Dubé has represented since 2011. spent most of the 1980s working for Bloc is once “again on the same page” cent, the Green at 9.5 per cent and the Quebec is expected to be a major Radio-Canada and almost a year end- as Quebecers and that support for the People’s Party at 0.4 per cent. That’s up battleground in the coming election, ing in August 2012 working for the party has increased in the months from almost 12.2 per cent support for with 78 federal ridings up for grabs, and Public Service Alliance of Canada. since he became leader in January. the Bloc as of Jan. 4, when the Liberals the Bloc Québécois has had something Most recently, she spent a little over two Mr. Blanchet said his party would were at 47.7 per cent, the Conserva- of resurgence in the province since the years, ending in October 2018, as chief focus on presenting a positive vision tives at 12 per cent, the NDP at 17.7 per start of the year, with fundraising up, of staff to now-former Parti Québécois for Quebec in the coming campaign, cent, the Greens at 7.7 per cent, and among other positive markers. leader Jean-François Lisée. and has touted it as the only party that the People’s Party at 1.7 per cent. Party strategist Éric Couture has Christian Picard, a political adviser will stand up for the will of the Quebec All 10 incumbent Bloc MPs are indicated that the party’s campaign to Mr. Blanchet as leader since Decem- national assembly in Ottawa—includ- running for re-election this fall, in- strategy will be region-specifi c, and ber 2018, is director of organization for ing when it comes to the controversial cluding party stalwart Louis Plamon- that he’s expecting the province will the Bloc’s campaign. A former director Bill 21, which the Bloc Québécois don (Bécancour-Nicolet-Saurel, Que.) ultimately be a three-way fi ght be- with Desjardins, Mr. Picard was chief defended in a billboard ad in Ottawa and former interim leader Rhéal tween the Liberals, the Conservatives, of staff to Mr. Blanchet from 2012 to last spring that read, “Quebec knows Fortin (Rivière-du-Nord, Que.). and the Bloc. 2014, during his time as Quebec’s envi- ■ Bloc Québécois what’s right for Quebec. Thank you.” The rest of the party’s slate of can- “In the region of Québec City, ronment and sustainable development Leader Yves- The Bloc Québécois unveiled its of- didates includes some notable names, for example, the Conservatives are minister under then-premier and Parti François Blanchet fi cial campaign slogan on Sept. 2: “Le including Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe, very strong and we’ll have to have Québécois leader Pauline Marois. pictured making Québec, c’est nous,” or, “Quebec is us.” son of former, longtime Bloc Leader a different strategy … in Montreal, Mr. Picard is also a former aide an announcement The party has said it will run a Gilles Duceppe, who’s running in Lac- the Liberals are very strong, so we’ll to Bloc MP Mario Beaulieu during in Gatineau, Que., carbon neutral campaign this fall, Saint-Jean, Que., a former Conser- have to have a different strategy his time as party president. In 2017, in August. The with Mr. Blanchet having indicated in vative-held seat that swung Liberal there, too,” he said in an interview he was part of the team that backed leader has spent August that for every tonne of green- in a 2017 byelection. André Parizeau, with The Hill Times in July. Valerie Plante’s successful bid to the summer touring house gas emitted for transportation nephew of former Quebec premier In charge of the Bloc Québécois’ become Montreal’s mayor and went Quebec, and has during the race, the Bloc will pay Car- Jacques Parizeau, is carrying the campaign this election is Mr. Pilotte, a on to work for her administration. Last announced his party bone Boreal—a research centre at the Bloc’s banner in Ahuntsic-Cartierville, longtime organizer and former execu- year, he ran, ultimately unsuccessfully, will run a carbon University of Quebec in Chicoutimi Que., where Tourism and Offi cial Lan- tive director of the Parti Québécois as a provincial candidate for the Parti neutral campaign which plants trees as part of a GHG guages Minister Mélanie Joly is fi ght- from 2009 to 2012. He was deputy di- Québécois in Chambly, Que., where this fall. The Hill compensation program—for a carbon ing for re-election. There’s also former rector general of the party from 2012 Mr. Blanchet is seeking a federal seat. Times photograph by offset at double the normal amount, PQ minister Réjean Hébert, who’s to 2015 and has also been a political [email protected] Cynthia Münster or $94 for every 1,000 km driven. running in Longueil-Saint-Hubert, adviser to the Parti Québécois’ House The Hill Times THE HILL TIMES | MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 9 INSIDER’S GUIDE TO ELECTIONO 2019

assistant, Alexa Lewis, a former Equal Voice Daughter of the Vote delegate for North Okanagan- Shuswap who was hired in June. John Chenery is director of Greens running biggest communications for the campaign, and has been doing the same job generally for the party since Janu- ary 2018; before then, he tackled communications for the Ontario Lung Association and was also federal campaign yet, communications director for the federal Greens from 2006 to 2008. While the party now has two sitting MPs, Mr. Dickie said, rather than going on any sort of auxiliary tour, Mr. Manly will be focused on re- claiming his seat: “It’s quite important led by Jonathan Dickie to us that we hold onto his riding.” The party has yet to release its offi cial platform, which is currently being costed by the Parliamentary Green Party Leader Budget Offi cer, but much focus will The Green Party’s Elizabeth May has a busy be on addressing the climate emer- Ottawa headquarters fall campaign ahead gency. It’s being developed by Ms. of her, with plans to May, party policy director Angela now has about 80 visit target ridings and Rickman, and the party’s shadow regions, including in cabinet, with input from experts. staff ers, up from Ontario, Atlantic Canada, The party’s slogan this year is: “Not Quebec, and British left. Not Right. Forward Together.” 39 before the start Columbia, including Emily McMillan, the party’s Vancouver Island. executive director since 2012, of the year. The Hill Times photograph played a big part in election readi- by Andrew Meade ness planning and continues to work on campaign organization and management. She’s a former BY LAURA RYCKEWAERT communications aide for the party from 2008 to 2012, and was a direc- uch is new when it tor with the Sierra Club’s Atlantic comes to the federal Chapter from 2003 to 2007. Green Party’s campaign, The party has also newly set including a fi rst-ever up a distinct Quebec campaign Mrapid response team, a bulked up team, recognizing the unique team of provincial organizers, linguistic and political situation in and national campaign manager the province, led by Robin Marty, Jonathan Dickie says the party is an organizer for the party there currently “fairly confi dent” it can win since 2016, out of Montreal. between six and 12 seats on Oct. 21. “He’s got a very strong under- “That number’s constantly standing of the political situation shifting as we do our own poll- in Quebec and so he’s leading ing and look at national polls and that campaign,” said Mr. Dickie. polling trends, but we’re fairly “We do see a lot of opportunity confi dent that we will end up mak- Mr. Dickie was tapped to run “We’re in Quebec this time, so it will be ing a noticeable improvement on the Green Party’s 2019 campaign in fi nding it to be more of a focus in this election.” our 2015 results,” he told The Hill late 2018 and has been busy build- a real help in Tackling communications for the Times in a recent interview. ing a team, and a campaign plan, this campaign Quebec campaign team is Isabella The Green Party attracted 3.4 since the beginning of the year. because we’re Robinson, who’s been executive per cent of the popular vote in 2015 “That’s continued to develop noticing that director of the Green Party’s Que- and won one riding: Green Party through the year as the political situ- we’re getting bec wing since April, with Natassia Leader Elizabeth May’s Saanich- ation changes and we’ve had more more atten- Ephrem as press secretary. Deputy Gulf Islands, B.C., which she was opportunity than we realized we had tion this time leader Daniel Green—whose un- re-elected to represent by 54.4 per at the beginning of this year,” he said. compared with successful 2017 byelection bid in cent of the vote, with a 34.9 percent- Based on Nanos Research’s na- 2015, we’re Saint-Laurent, Que. was run by Mr. age point lead on her Conservative tional poll tracker, the Greens were being attacked Marty—is also there. competitor. Last May, Paul Manly at 5.9 per cent support as of Jan. more,” said Mr. More provincial organizers became the second-ever Green MP 4, 2019, with the Liberals at 38.7 Dickie. across the country this time around after winning the former NDP seat per cent, the Conservatives at 33.3 For his Leading tour organizer is Debra Eindiguer, left, who's one enabled the party to recruit, vet of Nanaimo-Ladysmith, B.C., in a per cent, the NDP at 16.7 per cent part, this is of two deputy campaign managers, with Jonathan Dickie, and get candidates nominated byelection, beating out the Conser- and the Bloc Québécois at roughly Mr. Dickie’s right, leading the charge as national campaign manager. “well ahead of the campaign,” said vative candidate by a vote margin of three per cent. In the latest tracker fi rst national Photographs courtesy of LinkedIn Mr. Dickie, even with more people 12.4 percentage points. numbers, as of Aug. 30, the Greens campaign. He looking to run for the party than Along with doubling its federal were pegged at 10.3 per cent sup- fi rst got to know Ms. May back is taking the lead on organizing years past. It had 288 candidates caucus, the Greens have had plenty port, with the Liberals at 35.4 per in 2008, when he worked on her the federal leader’s tour, something nominated as of Sept. 3. to celebrate provincially since 2015: cent, the Conservatives at 31.3 per ultimately unsuccessful bid to win a that will be a “multi-modal” endeav- “In previous elections we it now has three MLAs elected in cent, the NDP at 15.6 per cent, and House of Commons seat in Central our, said Mr. Dickie, with Ms. May struggled to get enough candi- B.C. (all on Vancouver Island), one the Bloc at 4.4 per cent. Nova, N.S. In 2011, Mr. Dickie was set to do a mix of train, busy, and dates to fi eld a full slate, and a lot MPP in Ontario (in Guelph), three The party is looking to its campaign manager for Ms. May air travel to get around the country. of times many of our candidates MLAs in New Brunswick, and eight strong polling position to help it in Saanich-Gulf Islands, which The tour will see Ms. May visit “ev- were just paper candidates only. in Prince Edward Island, where the avoid losing support to “strategic marked the party’s fi rst-ever federal ery province at some point,” with In this election, we’re getting party formed offi cial opposition for voting concerns” on election day, win. He went on to work in her more time spent in target regions, down to where we may only have the fi rst time ever this past April. said Mr. Dickie. constituency offi ce, and has since particularly on Vancouver Island, to fi eld 20 or less,” said Mr. Dickie. With a “strong base of support Staff hiring ahead of the also been campaign manager to: where her own riding is located. Also unique this election is the on Vancouver Island,” where both election began earlier this time Green candidate Donald Galloway The party has two tour ad- fact the Greens haven’t had to fi ght federal MPs also have seats, Mr. around, he said, and there are now in Victoria, B.C., in the federal 2012 vances in place and plans to have to be included in the federal leaders Dickie said the party expects to about 80 staff working at party byelection, now-B.C. Green MLA at least two staff accompany Ms. debates, having qualifi ed under the do well there, along with the other headquarters in Ottawa. That Adam Olsen in 2013 (Mr. Olsen was May during the tour, one of whom new debate commission’s criteria. regions across Canada where pro- hiring includes more staff tack- elected ultimately in 2017). He also will often be Ms. Eindiguer. The Greens are also doing better vincial Greens have been elected ling communications, provincial lent a hand to the party’s campaign Also on the campaign’s media in fundraising and even managed since the last federal vote. ground organizers, and a fi rst- in Nanaimo-Ladysmith in 2015. team is Rosie Emery, who was to top the NDP in the most recent “We see ourselves as having a ever, stand-alone rapid response Supporting Mr. Dickie are two hired on as party press secretary quarter, bringing in a record setting chance at being in those races, in team, something former Liberal deputy campaign managers: former in January; Anna Dodd, a former $1.4-million in contributions. While those ridings that overlap or are strategist Warren Kinsella helped Ontario and federal Liberal organiz- parliamentary assistant to Ms. May the second quarter of 2019 marked nearby those provincially held set up earlier this summer—a hir- er Henry Wright, who’s also serving on the Hill who joined the party’s a “major milestone” for the party, it’s ridings. So that’s opened up more ing that got the Green Party some as a senior adviser, and Debra team this month as the leader’s still far behind its competitors and possibilities for us,” he said. heat online. Now in charge of the Eindiguer, who has been working media liaison, a role which will in turn, Mr. Dickie said the plan is to That list includes Quebec, and fi ve-member team is Tom Henhef- with Ms. May’s since their days at see her on the road with Ms. May “focus our resources very narrowly the Montreal-area riding of Lon- fer, a consultant at Mr. Kinsella’s the Sierra Club and has been the during the campaign; campaign on those ridings we think we can gueuil-Saint-Hubert, where former Daisy Consulting Group and a for- leader’s chief of staff since 2011. events co-ordinator Laura Ferreira, win” this fall. two-term NDP MP Pierre Nantel is mer director of news and digital at Ms. Eindiguer is also part of the a University of Victoria grad who [email protected] now running for the Greens. Vice Media in Toronto. campaign’s media liaison team and was hired in July; and Ms. May’s The Hill Times 10 MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 | THE HILL TIMES INSIDER’S GUIDE TO ELECTIONO 2019 Small team working to help realize People’s Party’s big

Walk this way: Maxime Bernier, fl anked by Martin Masse, right, and a former intern, is pictured heading to the National Press Theatre ambitions to announce the launch of his new party, the People’s Party of Canada, on Sept. 14, 2018. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade roughly a year working in his min- Also hired on around the same Bay, Ont., and the Yukon. Mr. Masse isterial offi ce in Ottawa. He’s been time were operations strategist said stops in western provinces are advising Mr. Bernier to some degree Daniel Tyrie and event coordinator also in the cards, though specifi cs ever since. A former Reform Party and graphic designer Ryan Browne. weren’t available when speaking organizer and can- After graduating with The Hill Times last week. Trans- this fall didate, Mr. Masse with a bachelor’s port for the leader’s tour will vary as also previously ran degree from the Uni- the party can’t afford to charter an Le Québécois Libre, versity of Waterloo, offi cial campaign plane or bus. an online libertar- Mr. Tyrie co-founded “We have to make do with the ian publication. and helped produce resources we have as a new party Maxime Bernier launched his new party one The PPC was content for True North and try and get into the news and pegged at 1.6 per News, a web-based of- get people’s attention as much as year ago, and a core team of seven staff ers are cent support na- fering which posted its we want through the resources tionally as of Aug. fi rst video in July 2018 we have,” said Mr. Masse. behind the People’s Party’s national campaign. 30, the most recent (the last one posted That will include continuing to Nanos poll tracker; online is from Decem- rely “a lot” on social media to reach looking at the ber 2018). He’s also out “directly” to supporters, he tracker’s regional previously interned said. The PPC has gotten “a lot of BY LAURA RYCKEWAERT update of what we proposed during breakdown, it was with Shop.ca. coverage” in traditional media since the leadership campaign,” he noted. strongest in British Caleb Voskamp is the Rounding out the being formed, but Mr. Masse said eople’s Party Leader That includes proposals to scrap Columbia, at 3.7 PPC’s national coordinator. national team is event the party’s “challenge is to make Maxime Bernier and his the Canadian Multiculturalism Act; per cent. It was fi rst Photograph courtesy of Facebook coordinator Alex the media get more interested not team have been busy in the take Canada out of the UN’s Global included in the poll Morrison, who started just in controversies but in our plat- year since forming the new Compact for Migration; accept tracker on Oct. 12, 2018, at the time out full-time with the party in May, form, which is more diffi cult.” Pparty and committing to run candi- fewer immigrants and refugees; sitting at almost 1.4 per cent support. according to his LinkedIn profi le. The party has been dogged by dates in all 338 federal ridings this fence off certain areas of the bor- With such a small team, the Before then, he helped get the riding controversy since its inception, much fall. Campaign preparations, led by der; reinstate former disability pen- campaign is very much a fl uid, team association in Kingston and the of it related to anti-immigration executive director Johanne Men- sion payments for veterans; phase effort, said Ms. Masse. That said, Islands, Ont., up and running. He’s and anti-multiculturalism tweets nie, have happened alongside other out supply management systems each of the national team members also a former a secure transport and statements made by the leader. work required to get the new party for dairy, egg, and poultry; revamp has general areas of focus. agent with 3|Sixty Secure Corp in That includes recent, since-removed up and running. the provincial equal- Yanick Villeneuve, who was also Almonte, Ont., was a construction billboard ads promoting the party, “It’s the same ization payment part of Mr. Bernier’s 2017 leadership worker with Park Derochie in Wood including one in Toronto, that fea- team that builds formula; replace the campaign, is now the party’s digital Buffalo, Alta., where he worked on tured a photo of Mr. Bernier and the party that will Firearms Act and solutions lead, putting him in charge the Suncor Fort Hills oil sands proj- read, “Say NO to mass immigration.” run the cam- current licensing of all digital products—from more ect, and he spent seven years as an Mr. Bernier has been photographed paign,” said Martin system; withdraw traditional advertising to memes infantry soldier with the Canadian with known white nationalists, and Masse, who, as from the Paris Ac- pushed out by the party online—and Armed Forces. His online profi le B’Nai Brith Canada has accused Mr. policy director cord and Canada’s management of the party’s voter indicates he’s ex- Masse of “anti-Sem- for the People’s greenhouse gas re- information database. He’s expected pected to graduate itism, misogyny, and Party (PPC), has duction targets; and to be on the road with the leader with a bachelor’s racism” for articles led its platform abolish subsidies for often during the campaign to ensure degree in politi- published previously development. He’s green tech and the events are recorded and broadcast cal science from on Québécois Libre, also in charge of federal carbon tax, online through Facebook, Twitter, Carleton University something Mr. Masse messaging and is Johanne Mennie is executive among other things. and YouTube. A University of Ottawa next year. has denied, call- spokesperson for director of the People’s Party of The PPC has chosen alumnus, Mr. Villeneuve, 25, previ- In addition to ing the accusations the party. Canada and the party’s national “strong and free” as ously ran (unsuccessfully) for a seat this seven-member untrue and “ridicu- The PPC’s campaign manager. Photograph its campaign slogan. on the Rockland, Ont., municipal core team, the PPC lous.” As it’s moved national team is courtesy of Johanne Mennie “Maxime is going council in 2018. has volunteer re- fast to set up riding made up of seven to address all these Caleb Voskamp is the PPC’s gional organizers associations across individuals, including Mr. Masse, policies everywhere he goes and national coordinator and has been in place across the the country, the party who largely works from his home try and sell them to the general busy vetting candidates, coordinat- country. Mr. Masse has also seen some of in southern Quebec, and Johanne public, instead of just making the ing regional organizers, and helping said these organiz- its own backers leave, Mennie, who works alongside the typical announcement of some local campaigns and riding associa- ers will be key to Daniel Tyrie is an operations some citing concerns rest of the national team out of targeted spending or tax cut etcet- tions get organized, with everything ensuring volun- strategist for the PPC. with racism and oth- the party’s headquarter offi ce in era that the other leaders will do from lawn signs to bank accounts. teers are in place Photograph courtesy of Facebook ers for being racist. Gatineau. As executive director of everyday,” he said. As of Sept. 3, the party had 316 can- on the ground, So far at least, Mr. the party, Ms. Mennie is the PPC’s Mr. Masse and Mr. Bernier didates in place across the country. including to support Mr. Bernier Bernier has not been invited to take national campaign manager. fi rst met in 2005 while both were Asked how many seats the during tour stops. part in the offi cial federal leaders’ A former federal public servant working at the Montreal Economic party is currently projecting it The plan currently is to have debates happening Oct. 7 (English) in Ottawa, this is Ms. Mennie’s Institute. Soon after being elected could win, Mr. Masse noted that Mr. Bernier be in his own riding and Oct. 10 (French) for not meet- fi rst time as a campaign manager. for the fi rst time as the Conservative “Maxime’s answer to this is be- of Beauce two to three days out of ing the new debate commission’s It’s also Mr. Masse’s fi rst national MP Beauce, Que., in 2006—win- tween one and 338.” each week and on the road visiting criteria. He was also not invited to campaign, though he worked on ning with roughly 67 per cent of the Mr. Voskamp previously sup- different regions for the rest, said take part in the Munk Debate on Mr. Bernier’s 2017 Conservative vote (he was re-elected in 2015 with ported Mr. Bernier in the 2017 Mr. Masse. foreign policy set for Oct. 1, nor in leadership campaign as policy almost 59 per cent support)—Mr. Conservative leadership race and The leader’s tour will soon see the Maclean’s/CityTV debate hosted director. Much of the policy that will Bernier became industry minister volunteered for the PPC before Mr. Bernier visit Nova Scotia, New by Paul Wells on Sept. 12. be featured in the party’s yet-to-be in prime minister Stephen Harper’s being hired on full-time at the Brunswick, and Prince Edward [email protected] he Hill Times released platform “essentially are an government and Mr. Masse spent beginning of this year. Island, with plans to also visit North T THE HILL TIMES | MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 11 INSIDER’S GUIDE TO ELECTIONO 2019

NDP MP Don Davies is being challenged by Liberal Tamara Taggart, a former local CTV anchor who was fi red in April 2018 in a Bell Media purge. Ms. Taggart is a high-profi le candidate after NDP MP : her years on television. Mr. This just in Don Davies Davies is his party’s health critic and has represented the riding since 2008. In the 2015 election, he won 45.7% of the vote, followed 25 ridings by Liberal runner-up Steven Kou with 27.8%. 338Canada also shows Conservative Liberal candidate Helen Quan Tamara Taggart within striking distance. She is involved in numerous to watch in community organizations and has received awards for her community service. The Liberals hosted a campaign kickoff event in the riding on Sept. 11, with several Conservative cabinet ministers, including this election the prime minister, who fl ew Helen Quan The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade directly to British Columbia after announcing the election says he has done nothing wrong. Ms. Wilson- call in Ottawa the same day. The Liberals are From British Columbia, to the East Coast, here are some of Raybould was recruited as a star candidate targeting this riding. in 2015, and won the riding with 44% of the the juiciest races to keep an eye on in this campaign. vote, beating Conservative candidate Mira 3 Burnaby North-Seymour, B.C.: Oreck, who earned 26.9%. Mr. Noormohamed Liberal MP Terry Beech, NDP candidate BY AIDAN CHAMANDY SNC-Lavalin scandal and was acclaimed as the Liberal candidate on Svend Robinson and Conservative & NEIL MOSS the one who blew the whistle Aug. 13. He ran unsuccessfully as the federal candidate Heather Leung on her own government, Liberal candidate for North Vancouver in Liberal MP Terry Beech is a rookie who is seeking to represent the 2011, garnering nearly 30% of the vote, but was fi rst elected in 2015. He won with 36% BRITISH COLUMBIA riding after leaving Prime lost to Conservative Andrew Saxton, who of the vote, edging out NDP candidate Carol iPolitics 1 Vancouver Granville, Minister Justin Trudeau’s won 48.6%. A recent Mainstreet/ poll Baird Ellan who won 29.6%, and Conservative B.C.: Independent Liberal Taleeb cabinet and being expelled showed a tight race, with Mr. Noormohamed candidate Mike Little who earned 27.8%. Mr. MP Jody Wilson-Raybould Noormohamed from the Liberal caucus for (28.6%) leading Ms. Wilson-Raybould (26%) Beech was fi rst elected to public offi ce in 1999 and Liberal candidate secretly recording a conver- by just two percentage points, which is within at the age of 18, serving on Nanaimo’s City + Taleeb Noormohamed sation with then-Privy Council clerk Michael the –4.41 point margin of error. Council, becoming the youngest ever elected Canada’s former justice Wernick. Ms. Wilson-Raybould alleges the offi cial in the province. He won the 2018 Ma- Independent MP minister and attorney gen- prime minister and his staff tried to pressure 2 Vancouver Kingsway, B.C.: NDP MP clean’s Magazine Parliamentarian of the Year Jody Wilson- eral Jody Wilson-Raybould, her to help SNC-Lavalin avoid a criminal Don Davies, Liberal candidate Tamara Taggart Raybould the central fi gure in the trial over its dealings with Libya. Mr. Trudeau and Conservative candidate Helen Quan Continued on page 16 12 MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 | THE HILL TIMES THE HILL TIMES | MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 13 INSIDER’S GUIDE TO ELECTION 2019 ‘Different—In it for you,’ New Democratic Party

RUN TIME: 30 seconds ages of Leader Jagmeet Singh (Burnaby South, NDP Leader SETTINGS: Construction site, office, park, B.C.) interacting with smiling people. Like the Jagmeet metalworking shop. Conservative ad, the NDP offering is focused Singh Liberal election ad ‘head and primarily on introducing Mr. Singh to voters, promises TRANSCRIPT: and does not mention rival parties. The ad was action on “People tell me I’m different from the other produced by the Canadian firm NowGroup. health care leaders, and I am. I don’t work for the wealthy “That ad is meant to introduce people if and climate and well-connected. I don’t think government they don’t already know him, and maybe change in shoulders’ above Tory, NDP should be run for their benefit, like it has for show a different side to him,” said Ms. the latest decades. I believe that government should Finneran-Gingras. ad from work for all of us. Investing in health care, The slogan and the use of the words his party. cutting costs for families, and tackling the “different” in the ad are meant to confront Screen- climate crisis. Not just saying the right things, and play off the fact that Mr. Singh, a man capture of but actually doing them. Now that’s different.” of South Asian descent who wears a turban, the NDP offerings, says U.S. campaign guru Like the Liberal ad, the NDP video is set looks different from the other party leaders, Facebook against a backdrop of uplifting music, and im- all of whom are caucasian. page “It’s playing on the fact that Jagmeet is a a veteran political advertising consultant in different kind of leader. He physically looks Justin Trudeau rides the bus as the Liberals contend with a Philadelphia who ran the ad campaign for different than what people might be used to, Al Gore’s presidential run, and has worked so they’re playing on that, they’re building ‘distance’ between high-flying Trudeau and average joes. for a long list of Democratic politicians over on that, saying, ‘OK, I look different, but I the past 30 years. also think different,’” said Mr. Bosch. all campaigns would ultimately do, it’s not crisis” in the ad. The Conservative ad also ad- The NDP ad, titled “Different—In It For “It seemed a bit more natural I thought different.” dresses the cost of living. You,” also won praise from a handful of than the Liberal ad was.” Mr. Oxman said the NDP ad “wasn’t a The language in the ad about working BY PETER MAZEREEUW television, sometimes spliced into 15-second experts in political advertising interviewed The NDP ad is very conventional stylisti- bad attempt,” and was similar to the Liberal for the people and not the wealthy will seem variants. It shows Mr. Trudeau (Papineau, by The Hill Times. A recent Conservative cally for a political ad, which could work ad, but not as polished. even more relevant to viewers whenever the olitical advertising experts are giving Que.) riding a bus, talking to people, and Party ad, however, had some scratching their against it’s effectiveness, said Mr. Matthews. Prof. Rose said the NDP ad was “the most SNC-Lavalin scandal comes back into the a thumb’s-up to the Liberal Party’s taking repeated jabs at the opposition Con- heads. “They’re going to have to walk the walk policy rich” of the three. Mr. Singh explicitly news headlines, said Prof. Rose. election ad featuring Prime Minister servatives while uplifting music plays in the “It’s a low budget production ad, and I and show that they’re actually different, mentions “investing in health care, cutting [email protected] Justin Trudeau riding a bus, with background. Several political advertising ex- think it stands out in contrast to those two,” and a slickly-produced campaign ad is what costs for families, and tackling the climate The Hill Times Pone calling it “head and shoulders” above perts said the ad was more slickly-produced said Lindsay Finneran-Gingras, vice-presi- English-language ads released recently by than the offerings from the other parties. dent of social and digital at Hill & Knowlton the Conservatives and NDP. “In terms of production value, in terms of Canada. “I think that [Conservative] ad was The minute-long Liberal ad is available the messaging, his ad is just head and shoul- more to launch their slogan than a true, on social media, and has been running on ders above the other two,” said Neil Oxman, 30-second traditional ad.”

‘Choose forward,’ Liberal Party RUN TIME: one minute full length, several 15-second Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer puts variants. affordability front and centre in a recent SETTINGS: Riding a ad from his party. Screen-capture of the bus filled with actors; Conservative Party Facebook page talking to people in a coffee shop, a park, and family kitchen. jor parties, aimed at Canadians who “feel TRANSCRIPT (FULL like they’re getting pinched every single VERSION): ‘It’s time for day on a whole bunch of fronts,” said “I got into politics Dennis Matthews, the vice-president to help people, like of marketing and communications at the people I’ve served you to get Enterprise Canada here in Papineau for “I think the simplicity of it was more than a decade. necessary, because they’ve got to show People who work hard ahead,’ Andrew Scheer directly,” he said. The to make ends meet. bare-bones backdrop removed any “clut- Parents who want to ter” that could interfere with the mes- build a better life for Conservative sage, he said. their kids. Canadians The other advertising experts and who want our country politicos took a more critical view of the to stand for some- Party Conservative ad, however. Mr. Oxman Prime Minister Justin Trudeau casts himself as a bus-riding everyman in his latest ad. Screen-capture of the Liberal Party Youtube channel thing positive in a said he didn’t understand why much world that has grown RUN TIME: 30 seconds. of the ad was shot from a side view of darker. Conservative politicians have a differ- sor at Queen’s University who researches Putting Mr. Trudeau on a bus serves as an SETTINGS: Inside, in front of a window. Mr. Scheer, instead of having him talk ent approach. When we raised taxes on the political advertising and communication. effective metaphor for fighting climate change, Building a better Canada directly to the camera. wealthiest one per cent so we could cut them The ad sets up a contrast between the Liber- and for the slogan, “choose forward,” said Kev- TRANSCRIPT: “He has no gravitas at all, none,” he for the middle class, they tried to stop us. als and progressive politics, and the Conserva- in Bosch, the vice-president of public affairs at Infrastructure is crucial for the prosperity and competitiveness of Canada. The “My plan for Canadians? Lower the said. When we created the Canada Child Benefit tives and Mr. Harper, who is “a divisive figure Hill & Knowlton Canada, and former deputy cost of living, and leave more money in “He’s just a guy sitting with an open Canadian construction market is poised to become one of the top 10 largest in the world, that gives hundreds of dollars a month tax- for some people,” said Ms. Finneran-Gingras. director of the Liberal Research Bureau. your pockets. I believe that Canadians shirt, with a window behind him. And he free to regular families across the country, The ad was not produced by Bensimon Mr. Bosch said he thought the ad was driven primarily by the global demand for natural resources and the urgent need to modernize across this country are so frustrated says political stuff for 29 seconds, from they tried to stop that too. And now we’ve Byrne, the agency behind many of the Liberal “very effective.” He also said, however, because they’re working so hard and fade up to fade out. And you’ve got noth- public infrastructure. got a real climate plan that will reduce pol- Party’s 2015 campaign ads, according to party that filling the bus with actors who keep they’re following all the rules, but they ing that says, in my opinion, ‘Boy, I could lution and put more money in your pockets, spokesperson Eleanore Caternaro. She would their gaze away from the camera, and Mr. feel that they’re falling further and fur- lead a country of 30 million people.’” The Canadian Construction Association and its 20,000 member companies are proud to support our and they’re even trying to fight that. Conser- not say which firm produced the ad. Trudeau, makes the ad seem “a little bit less ther behind, or that they’re barely get- “I certainly would have done more to vatives like to say they’re for the people, but Riding a bus is “not where you expect real-world” than the NDP ad. communities by constructing the infrastructure of tomorrow. ting by. I have a plan to lower the cost make him more prime ministerial,” he said. then they cut taxes for the wealthy, and cut the prime minister to be. So in that sense, I “We know what would happen if Justin of living, to make life more affordable, Prof. Rose said that showing Mr. services for everybody else. In October, we’ve found it was the most unusual and therefore Trudeau got on a bus: it would be fun, pan- Investing in infrastructure will ensure Canada remains one of the best places to live, work and invest in the to leave more money in the pockets of Scheer “speaking off-camera” was got a choice to make: keep moving forward the one that was going to draw your atten- demonium,” he said. Canadians: for their kids, for themselves, “incredibly contrived, because everyone world – strengthening our communities, boosting our economy and improving the quality of life of Canadians. and build on the progress we’ve made, or go tion,” said prof. Rose. The bus is likely an attempt to close some or for their aging parents. Because it’s knows this is an advertisement, so you back to the politics of the Harper years. I’m “The production value is just markedly of the “distance” between Mr. Trudeau and time for you to get ahead.” might as well look at the camera. And it for moving forward, for everyone.” different than, certainly the Conservative ad. ordinary people created by scandals involving creates even further distance between It’s just a much higher quality of ad,” said Mr. well-connected businesspeople and a vacation The ad begins with Conserva- him and the viewer, I think.” #Construction4CDNs construction4cdns.ca Uplifting music and smiling faces Oxman, the president and co-founder of The on the Aga Khan’s private island, said Dennis tive Leader Andrew Scheer (Regina- Mr. Bosch said the Conservative throughout the ad serve in contrast to Prime Campaign Group consultancy. Matthews, the vice-president of marketing Qu’Appelle, Sask.) facing the camera ad should have shown pictures of Mr. Minister Justin Trudeau’s negative comments Mr. Oxman said he had not done work and communications at Enterprise Canada, and speaking. Soft music fades in after Scheer interacting with other people, as about the Conservative Party. Mr. Trudeau for any of Canada’s political parties, and who managed ads for the Conservative Party a few seconds. The camera cuts to a side the NDP and Liberal ads did, to illus- mentions former Conservative prime min- had not been following Canadian fed- during the 2015 election campaign and for Mr. view of Mr. Scheer as he speaks, then trate the slogan, “It’s time for you to get ister Stephen Harper by name, and repeats eral politics closely before The Hill Times Harper during his time as prime minister. back to a head-on shot at the end of the ahead.” Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s campaign showed him the party ads. Attacking the Conservatives was a ad. Mr. Scheer does not mention Mr. “Why didn’t I see myself in the ad?” slogan, “for the people,” but he does not name The Liberal ad is similar to the English- “risky but necessary strategy,” he said. Trudeau or his opponents. he said. Conservative leader Andrew Scheer or his language ad released recently by the NDP, “Risky because it cuts against the Trudeau The ad was the most “message direct” “I just found it would be easy to other opponents in this campaign. titled, “Different—In it for you,” said Mr. Ox- campaign in 2015 to practice positive poli- of the three recently released by the ma- ignore.” “Of the three, that was probably the most man, but with more cuts, better pacing, and tics. Necessary because they need to beat aggressive,” said Jonathan Rose, a profes- better lighting. Conservatives back post SNC-Lavalin.” 14 MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 | THE HILL TIMES INSIDER’S GUIDE TO ELECTIONO 2019

campaign. The company produced a one-day poll on Sept. 11 to get a snapshot More parties, on the campaign’s fi rst day as a benchmark from where the election began. “We are trying to be quick off the mark when more polls, things happen,” said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff, aiming for at least 800 to 1,000 respon- dents so the margin of and voter error down remains at an acceptable level. Mr. Bozinoff said he doesn’t know how many of the shorter surveys— ‘malaise’: of about fi ve questions— Pollsters have more to consider in this election with six federal parties in the mix. Prime Minister Forum will do, preferring Justin Trudeau, left, Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, to wait for something to Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier, and Bloc Québécois happen. Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet. The Hill Times photographs by Andrew Meade and Cynthia Münster “Spontaneous events tracking are going to occur during the campaign and I think we’re in predicting the per cent a win- access to their own internal mea- going to wonder what impact that ning party would take in Canada, sures—it can impact coverage of has. Well, we don’t have to wonder, though he cautioned that same-day the horse race and key shifts. we can fi nd out,” said Mr. Bozinoff. polls could have a “non-response It won’t change a Liberal into 2019 trickier, Mainstreet Research, too, has bias” if it misses out on a type of a Conservative, but some might moved to daily tracking to report voter that would be available on decide to stay or leave third par- a three-day rolling poll, instead of another day that multi-day polls ties based on the results, or not weekly snapshots like in 2015. iPoli- would capture. Riding-level polls vote at all, pollsters said. tics has been covering those results, are also challenging he said, as it’s “There are different ways polls pollsters say many of them at the riding level, diffi cult to zero in with certainty on can infl uence voters,” said Mr. which founder Quito Maggi said in voters within that border. Bourque, especially with party loy- an email will look at close to 100 There’s fewer media partner- alty being something that belongs to ‘People are waiting, they’re more and more seats throughout the election. ing and purchasing polls this time the past for a majority of Canadians. That local focus isn’t different around, pollsters said, in keep- Part of the picture is the shift over strategic about their vote as well, so we feel from its approach in 2015 though ing with the decline that’s been the last three decades in the number the output is much higher, added decades in the making. That hasn’t of media stories that report on or use like that last weekend is becoming extremely Mr. Maggi, who estimates he’s slowed coverage of public opinion polling “as the main ingredient in already written more on this elec- research—or output—with more their piece. … It is bound to have an important,’ says Léger’s Christian Bourque. tion than in all of 2015. companies polling, producing impact at some point,” he added. “We’ve found that the combina- results weekly this pre-writ period It’s the strategic voter and tion of national surveys and local and most predicting an uptick over those undecided—an increasing riding surveys gives us a better pic- the next fi ve weeks. segment of the population— ture, and it’s confi rmed by the com- It’s created a dynamic where where polls might have sway. BY SAMANTHA WRIGHT ALLEN 2015, use its online panels to analyze munity of modellers and aggrega- there’s “continuous tracking” of Though Mr. Lyle said he doesn’t regional seat clusters and offer a tors that have emerged since 2015,” the population that serves a 24/7 see polls having a “meaningful ith more parties in the sense of how the election is shaping said Mr. Maggi, adding they’re news cycle which Mr. Lyle sees as impact” on campaigns, it perhaps mix, voter ‘malaise,’ up in different parts of the country. doing more issue analysis and shift from elections past. plays a part when they pick out a and a tight race There are at least fi ve or six deeper looks at culture, economics, It’s also created a dynamic that shift in general voter intent. among the top-two, “very different” regional elections personalities, and other impacts on forces polling companies to “show “Then other voters can react to Wpollsters are bringing new ap- unfolding across the country, voter behaviour than in 2015. up” in the campaign, mostly to that shift—and that will be particular- proaches to 2019 as they try to keep added Mr. Colledge, while Mr. make sure the people who commis- ly important if third parties are going up with trends during a breakneck Bourque said three regions will ‘Continuous tracking’ sion private polls can see what they to fi nd momentum,” said Mr. Lyle. 40-day campaign they say will be be “particularly tough” this time do, said Mr. Lyle, who has a weekly While public trust in polling has more challenging than the last one. around: battleground B.C., where the new reality: Lyle column every Monday in The Hill gone down “somewhat,” people’s With six parties to consider and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Companies haven’t shifted Times during the campaign. consumption of that research “has the Liberals and Conservatives in (Papineau, Que.) kicked off his polling methods over the last four “And if you don’t show up, remained constant,” said Frank a “dead heat,” Ipsos president Mike campaign, Ontario, and Quebec. years, which by the last election you run the risk of losing interest Graves, president of EKOS Research Colledge says this election will be It means some companies, had already been transformed by awareness within market.” he said. Associates. Mr. Graves’ research “more challenging” for pollsters as like Léger, plan to be out in the cheaper ways to enter the business, Canadians are likely to see polls shows two-thirds of respondents are the campaign started Sept. 11 with- fi eld later in this campaign or will whether through online panels or almost every day given the cheaper following the polls, with one-third out a ballot question defi ned. jump on key events to try and through IVR. Some are blended with entry costs and presence of more saying they’re keeping a close watch. “There’s a lack of enthusiasm get a better sense of the pulse to live calls, once the gold standard, companies offering results for free, “A lot of them are using it to about the options and there’s avoid late shifts in sentiment. but the high cost and low response said Mr. Adams, but he’ll be watch- infl uence their voting in a specifi c this angst about the future,” said “People are waiting, they’re rates have seen Canadian companies ing how the media covers them— riding but also their view of the Mr. Colledge, who said Ipsos more and more strategic about their move away from this approach. and perhaps more importantly, overall election,” he said, adding will be doing weekly polls as it vote as well, so we feel like that last In the fi nal days of 43 federal what doesn’t get weeded out. EKOS will be following did in 2015. “There’s a malaise weekend is becoming extremely and provincial elections between “We’ll be looking for journal- If it turnout is low, or one party is but it hasn’t manifested into a important,” said Mr. Bourque, who 2015 and 2018, only one poll — ists to be careful,” he said, citing a better at pulling out its supporters, it ballot question, so that’s going said Léger aims to publish its fi nal conducted Nanos Research—was recent “fi asco” in Manitoba election means the people pollsters are speak- to be a challenge for all of us,” results on Sunday, the day before entirely live calls, according to where results of a problematic poll ing to in the lead-up to the election to including recognizing when that the election. In the past, it’s been the research by Christopher Adams, by a rookie fi rm were published. develop their predictions may not be ballot question is formed or, even Saturday morning, but he said the a political scientist based at the voters, which will skew results. tougher, if it doesn’t form at all. last weekend offers an important University of Manitoba’s St. Paul’s Voter turnout a ‘huge “That’s going to be a huge is- Pollsters are paying closer at- window into the parties’ last push. College. The rest were robocalls, sue,” this election Mr. Graves said, tention to more parties this time In 2011 with the Orange Crush in online or blended approach. issue’: Graves and “the biggest challenge” for around, including the potential for Quebec, “most of us failed to see how The new models haven’t af- While most said the polling pollsters to reckon with. a breakout election with the Green big” that shift was, he said, and those fected accuracy, which Mr. Adams doesn’t have much infl uence on [email protected] Party showing pockets of regional crucial extra days could have helped. said have performed “fairly well” the campaign—the parties have The Hill Times momentum; Maxime Bernier’s new Innovative Research Group People’s Party of Canada as a brand is doing a few things differently new entity without a historic base- this time around: placing more line to compare with; and the NDP’s emphasis looking at populist at- Party results in recent polls collapse an open question, especially titudes with the PPC in the mix; Campaign Innovative in Quebec where three- and four- looking at the electoral dimension Forum Léger Mainstreet Nanos Research Research party races make it more diffi cult in of “Trudeau’s identity politics” mea- Liberal 32% 34% 38% 35% 34% 33% an already unpredictable province. suring responses around feminism “The more parties that are and those who experience discrim- CPC 36% 35% 34% 31% 34% 34% running, the harder it is to predict,” ination; and identifying the “strug- NDP 12% 11% 8% 17% 12% 13% said Christian Bourque, executive gling middle class” to see how Green 9% 11% 11% 11% 12% 11% vice-president at Léger, which is that battle is going with all parties BQ 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% producing weekly polls in this talking affordability and promising election, which wasn’t the case in a better life for that segment. PPC 5% 3% 5% 2% 2% 5% 2015’s 78-day period. For the fi rst time, Forum Dates Sept. 11 Sept. 6-9 Sept. 6-8 Aug. 10-Sept. 6 Sept. 3-5 Aug. 30-Sept. 5 Having six parties complicates Research, which uses interactive Respondents 1,001 1,546 1,876 1,000 2,094 3,236 the picture “a lot,” agreed Greg Lyle voice response (IVR), will be doing of Innovative Research Group, which same-day surveys in an effort to tie A snapshot of the most recent poll results from Forum, Léger, Mainstreet Research, Nanos, Campaign Research, and will also do weekly polling and as in reaction to what’s happening in the Innovative Research Group, including the number of survey respondents and the dates the surveys were conducted. THE HILL TIMES | MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 15 INSIDER’S GUIDE TO ELECTIONO 2019

Calculated plays stumping in other regions, just as In some cases, the pre-election the late NDP leader Jack Layton Facing the nation: leaders’ relied on Tom Mulcair, said Karl tour reveals spots leaders are un- likely to hit again, barring a swing Bélanger, former national director in the polls. of the NDP. “You have a strong Debra Eindiguer, deputy personality in Boulerice who can tours hint at parties’ campaign manager for the pick up some of the slack.” Greens, said that in the lead- Last week’s Manitoba elec- up to the election call, Ms. May tion, which gave the NDP 11 new held a series of town halls and members in the legislature, may vulnerabilities, seats in play events across the country, hitting bode well for the party, said Mr. a number of places—including Bélanger. Mr. Singh made an Carbonear, N.L., Yellowknife, and appearance alongside Manitoba Orillia, Ont.—that she likely won’t NDP Leader Wab Kinew before “If you plotted a map of Can- the Conservatives, he needs to win have a chance to revisit. the election in Winnipeg. Weeks two and three ada, and plotted it out by colour those seats back,” he said. “The likelihood of her going “The NDP has some strength in terms of where people are … “Ontario and Quebec, where back is slim, unless there’s been in Winnipeg. The election… of the campaign are [in the fi rst week] you’re going to there’s 200 ridings, that’s where a shift in the polls,” Ms. Eindiguer showed it’s still strong in that typically spent in see wide gaps across the country,” the bread and butter is, in terms said. “We have a little looseness in area. Now you have fresh marks, said Garry Keller, vice-president of accessible voters, ridings that the calendar towards the end [of the fresh information on voters, so I ridings that are ‘on at StrategyCorp and former chief switch back and forth between campaign], so we can be nimble.” expect them to use that,” he said. of staff to interim Conservative Liberals and Conservatives,” Mr. The NDP hasn’t raised enough Mr. Singh also spent a large the cusp’ of fl ipping leader Rona Ambrose. “When you Keller added. money to mount as aggressive portion of his time in B.C., his get to weeks two, three, you’re go- Some strategists said it’s a bad a campaign as the Liberals and adopted province, where political in the party’s favour, ing to see massive concentrations sign to see incumbents with their the Conservatives, both in the analysts expect a four-way race. in the GTA, Southwestern On- leaders ahead of the campaign, as airwaves and on the ground. For The province’s seat distribution or where they need tario, Quebec, Montreal, basically, it could signal that their seats are the party to be taken seriously as before Parliament was dissolved to defend seats. up and down the Quebec-Windsor vulnerable. It can also be an effort a national force, Leader Jagmeet had the Liberals in the lead with corridor. You can hit so many rid- to engage an already loyal base, Singh needs to be everywhere, 17 seats, with 12 for the NDP, The 43rd election ings so quickly by doing that.” said Penny Collenette, a former said Prof. Loewen. eight for the Conservatives, two Weeks two and three of the Chrétien-era staffer and adjunct Mr. Singh’s absence in New for the Greens, one Independent, campaign runs for campaign, he added, are typically professor at the University of Brunswick—he reportedly hasn’t and two vacancies. spent in areas “on the cusp” of Ottawa. been to the province since he was “I expect it will be a tough bat- nearly six weeks, over shifting or fl ipping in the party’s Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau crowned leader—has been a sore tleground for the Liberals in light favour, or where they need to win squeezed as much time as he could point for some New Democrats of the [Trans Mountain] pipeline a 40-day period. seats. The last week is a “call to in Ontario between his obligations there. Of the four provinces in [expansion],” Mr. Bélanger said. action” to supporters. as prime minister, though his itiner- Atlantic Canada, Mr. Singh only “You have the pro-pipeline [camp] Conservative Leader Andrew ary did not include as many smaller hit Newfoundland during the who are not satisfi ed with the Scheer’s Ontario-heavy itinerary cities. Hamilton, Kanata, Owen pre-election call, where he cam- current state of affairs, and the BY BEATRICE PAEZ ahead of the campaign launch Sound, and Niagara-on-the-Lake paigned for St. John’s East candi- people against the efforts Justin may be informed both by the were among the places he visited. date Jack Harris, a former MP. Trudeau took to try to achieve the he party leaders’ sprint need to generate momentum in a As prime minister, Mr. “He can’t just spend the cam- construction of the pipeline—he’s across the country in the seat-rich province and a need to Trudeau’s schedule is dictated paign in places where he wants kind of being squeezed without run-up to the election hints “counteract the damage that Doug by events beyond his control, Mr. to shore up seats,” Prof. Loewen much to show for [it],” he said. at where campaign strate- Ford has done to the Conservative Keller said, while the other party said. “He has to appear as a na- Shane Mackenzie, a consultant Tgists think their team can make at Ensight Canada and former brand,” said Peter Loewen, a po- leaders “have the ability to do as tional leader, that he believes the inroads, or—depending on the state litical science professor at Munk much or as little as they want.” party can be competitive.” Liberal staffer, said that while Mr. of the electoral map and public opin- School of Global Affairs. Still, Mr. Trudeau parachuted In recent weeks, the NDP Trudeau will have to spend time ion polls—where they need to play Over a three-day period in late in to nearly every province and has been preoccupied managing making a “direct appeal” to British defence, say political observers. August, Mr. Scheer hit 10 cities and territory, except for Manitoba, squabbles with the Greens over Columbians to sell the govern- It’s no surprise the four major towns in the province, including St. Northwest Territories, Prince Ed- defections, and vying for third ment’s record on the environment, party leaders have been logging Catharines, Kitchener, Markham, ward Island, Saskatchewan, and place in the polls. But Mr. Singh the Liberals have much to tout. plenty of mileage during the Nepean, and Richmond Hill. Yukon. That’s based on publicly told reporters last week he views He pointed to the government’s pre-election period, crisscrossing “Ontario is a great place for him available information, including the Liberals and Conservatives as oceans protection plan and the British Columbia, Ontario, and to practice, to road test his cam- his daily itinerary, social media, his main competitors. push to phase out coal. Quebec, the three most popu- paign message,” Prof. Loewen said. and party press releases. At the same time, Prof. Loewen “B.C. voters are going to rec- lous provinces, which, collec- Mr. Keller disagreed that Mr. Among the stops he made said, given the circumstances, Mr. ognize that they have a progres- tively, account for 241 seats in the Scheer has been hurt by Doug were the nomination events for Singh “has to be serious about sav- sive government that has made 338-member House. Ford’s unpopularity, however. the party’s candidates in Bruce- ing” the NDP’s 39 seats. To reach advances on this,” Mr. Mackenzie Though the dynamics of this Pointing to those pre-writ stops in Grey-Owen Sound, Ont., Portneuf- offi cial status, a party needs at said, “as opposed to saying the race are considerably different Ontario, Mr. Keller said these are Jacques-Cartier, Que., Carleton, least 12 seats. problem has been solved in a than those in previous elections, ridings the party is hoping to recap- Ont., and Laurier-Sainte-Marie, In Quebec, Mr. Singh may four-year mandate.” [email protected] the 40-day campaign will largely ture. “In order for Andrew Scheer to which the NDP won in 2015. The lean heavily on his lieutenant, The Hill Times unfold in a similar fashion. get back to minority or majority for other three are blue ridings. Alexandre Boulerice, while he’s

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau Date City/Town Date City/Town Date City/Town Date City/Town Date City/Town Date City/Town Date City/Town 08/15/2019 Fredericton 07/08/2019 Ottawa 08/21/2019 Peterborough, Ont. 07/13/2019 Toronto 08/25/2019 Edmonton 09/09/2019 Victoria 09/12/2019 Victoria Dieppe, N.B. 07/07/2019 Ottawa Richmond Hill, Ont. Mississauga, Ont. 08/22/2019 Toronto 09/07/2019 Salt Spring Island, B.C. Kamloops, B.C. 08/14/2019 Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ont. 07/06/2019 Toronto Nepean, Ont. 07/12/2019 Kenora, Ont. 08/19/2019 Montreal 09/06/2019 Toronto 09/11/2019 Ottawa 08/13/2019 Toronto Mississauga, Ont. 08/20/2019 Cobourg, Ont. 07/06/2019 Calgary 08/18/2019 Montreal 09/03/2019 Toronto Vancouver Toronto 07/05/2019 Ottawa Markham, Ont. 07/04/2019 Tsawwassen, B.C. Whitby, Ont. 08/16/2019 New Westminster, B.C. 08/31/2019 Victoria area 09/10/2019 Halifax 08/12/2019 Toronto 07/04/2019 Montreal 07/03/2019 Whitehorse 08/14/2019 Victoria 08/30/2019 Victoria area Richmond Hill, Ont. Toronto 09/09/2019 Manotick, Ont. London, Ont. 07/02/2019 Kamloops, B.C. 08/13/2019 Vancouver Burnaby, B.C. 08/11/2019 Ottawa London, Ont. 08/19/2019 Kitchener, Ont. 09/08/2019 Ottawa Burlington, Ont. Penticton, B.C. Parksville, B.C. 08/25/2019 Salt Spring Island, B.C. 09/07/2019 Ottawa 08/10/2019 Ottawa 07/03/2019 Toronto St. Catharines, Ont. 07/01/2019 Meductic, N.B. 08/10/2019 Burnaby, B.C. 08/24/2019 Victoria area 09/06/2019 Ottawa 08/09/2019 Montreal 07/02/2019 Toronto 08/18/2019 Charlottetown Toronto 08/09/2019 Burnaby, B.C. 08/22/2019 Victoria area Kelowna, B.C. 09/05/2019 Ottawa 08/08/2019 Montreal 07/01/2019 Ottawa 08/17/2019 Charlottetown 08/06/2019 Nanaimo, B.C. 08/20/2019 Sudbury 06/29/2019 Etobicoke, Ont. Brampton, Ont. 08/07/2019 St. John’s 06/30/2019 Ottawa 08/16/2019 Summerside, P.E.I. 08/05/2019 Nanaimo, B.C. 08/18/2019 Montreal 06/20/2019 Iqaluit 09/04/2019 Toronto 08/06/2019 St. John’s 06/29/2019 Osaka, Japan 08/15/2019 Caraquet, N.B. Comox, Ont. 08/16/2019 Winnipeg 09/03/2019 Owen Sound, Ont. 08/05/2019 Vancouver 06/28/2019 Osaka, Japan Salisbury, N.B. 08/04/2019 Vancouver NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh 08/10/2019 Salt Spring Island, B.C. Toronto 08/04/2019 Surrey, B.C. 06/27/2019 Osaka, Japan Moncton, N.B. 07/31/2019 Kenora, Ont. Date City/Town 08/09/2019 Victoria 09/02/2019 Ottawa Vancouver 06/26/2019 Ottawa 08/13/2019 Regina 07/30/2019 Thunder Bay, Ont. Saanich, B.C. Hamilton, Ont. 08/02/2019 Iqaluit 06/25/2019 Ottawa 08/12/2019 Regina 09/12/2019 Brampton, Ont. 07/29/2019 Ottawa 08/07/2019 Vancouver 09/01/2019 Ottawa Toronto 08/01/2019 Iqaluit 06/24/2019 Montreal 08/11/2019 Brampton, Ont. 07/26/2019 Toronto 08/04/2019 Vancouver 08/31/2019 Ottawa Arctic Bay, Nunavut 09/11/2019 London, Ont. 06/23/2019 Toronto 08/09/2019 Cape Breton, N.S. 07/21/2019 Brampton, Ont. 08/03/2019 Vancouver 08/30/2019 Vancouver 07/31/2019 Ottawa 09/10/2019 Hamilton, Ont. 06/22/2019 Ottawa 08/08/2019 Cape Breton, N.S. 07/20/2019 Toronto 08/02/2019 Nanaimo, B.C. 08/29/2019 Surrey, Ont. 07/30/2019 Ottawa 09/09/2019 Toronto 06/21/2019 Gatineau, Que. 08/05/2019 Toronto 07/18/2019 Trois-Rivières, Que. 07/30/2019 St. John’s 08/28/2019 Ottawa 07/29/2019 Vancouver 09/08/2019 Toronto Toronto 08/03/2019 Brampton, Ont. Berthier-Maskinongé, Que. 07/29/2019 Carbonear, N.L. 08/27/2019 Ottawa 07/18/2019 Montreal 06/20/2019 Washington, D.C. Toronto 09/07/2019 Drummondville, que. 07/17/2019 Drummondville, Que. Vancouver Ottawa 07/24/2019 Fredericton 08/26/2019 Biarritz, France Mississauga, Ont. 08/02/2019 Toronto 07/16/2019 Sherbrooke, Que. Moncton, N.B. Victoria 09/06/2019 Quebec City 08/25/2019 Biarritz, Franc . 07/30/2019 Ottawa 07/15/2019 Montreal 07/20/2019 Halifax 07/17/2019 Montreal Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer Montreal 08/24/2019 Biarritz, Franc 07/27/2019 Vancouver 07/13/2019 Brampton, Ont. 07/18/2019 Barrie, Ont. 08/23/2019 Biarritz, Franc 07/16/2019 Montreal Date City/Town Abbotsford, Fraser Valley, B.C. 09/05/2019 Montreal Toronto 07/12/2019 Welland, Ont. 07/17/2019 Orilla, Ont. 07/15/2019 Petawawa, Ont. 07/24/2019 Chicoutimi, Que. 08/22/2019 Ottawa 9/12/2019 Toronto Montreal 07/11/2019 Ottawa 07/15/2019 Guelph, Ont. Kanata, Ont. 07/14/2019 Ottawa Roberval, Que. 9/11/2019 Trois-Rivières, Que. 09/04/2019 Toronto 07/09/2019 Toronto 07/07/2019 Victoria 08/21/2019 Montreal 07/13/2019 Surrey, B.C. Vaughan, Ont. 07/23/2019 Saint-Hyacinthe, Que. 09/03/2019 St. John’s 07/01/2019 Burnaby, B.C. 07/06/2019 Calgary 08/20/2019 Sherbrooke, Que. Calgary 9/7/2019 Saint-Tite, Que. Quebec City 09/02/2019 Toronto 06/29/2019 Burnaby, B.C. 07/05/2019 Calgary 08/19/2019 Quebec 07/12/2019 Edmonton Sorel-Tracy, Que. 07/20/2019 Edmonton Saint-Augustin-de- 07/11/2019 Ottawa 9/6/2019 Drummondville, Que. 07/19/2019 Sherwood Park, Alta. 09/01/2019 Winnipeg 06/24/2019 Montreal 07/03/2019 Yellowknife Desmaures, Que. 07/10/2019 Montreal Montreal 07/18/2019 Meadow Lake, Sask. 08/31/2019 Burnaby, B.C. 06/23/2019 Toronto 07/01/2019 Victoria area 08/18/2019 Montreal Edmonton 9/5/2019 Montreal Big River, Sask. 08/29/2019 Penticton, B.C. 06/30/2019 Sidney, B.C. 08/17/2019 Ottawa Montreal Laval, Que. Debden, Sask. 08/28/2019 Penticton, B.C. Green Party Leader Elizabeth May 06/28/2019 Victoria area Prince Albert, Sask. 08/16/2019 Dartmouth, N.S. 07/09/2019 Ottawa 09/02/2019 Hamilton, Ont. 08/27/2019 Nelson, B.C. Date City/Town 06/27/2019 Victoria 07/17/2019 Saskatoon 08/26/2019 Surrey, B.C. 09/12/2019 Toronto 09/11/2019 Victoria 16 MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 | THE HILL TIMES INSIDER’S GUIDE TO ELECTIONO 2019 This just in: 25 ridings to watch in this election

Continued from page 11 6 North Turnout in the 2015 election was 67.8%, just ran unsuccessfully for the for Best Civ- Island-Powell shy of the national average of 68.3%. Both Mr. 2018 provincial Progressive ic Outreach. River, B.C.: Sohi and Mr. Uppal spent well over $100,000 Conservative nomination. NDP candi- NDP MP on their campaigns in the 2015 election. Mr. date Svend Rachel Sohi spent $136,379.94, while Mr. Uppal spent 12 Eglinton-Lawrence, Robinson Blaney, $126,472.41. As minister of natural resources, Ont.: Liberal MP Marco is looking Liberal NDP MP Green Mr. Sohi was largely responsible for handling Mendicino and Conservative Conservative to make a candidate Pe- Rachel Blaney Mark De Brujin the pipeline fi le, which has been highly conten- candidate Chani Aryeh-Bain Jane Michael Liberal MP NDP ter Schhwar- tious, especially in Alberta. The government Eglinton-Lawrence is Terry Beech Svend Robinson big fed- eral political zhoff, Conservative candidate purchased the Trans Mountain pipeline for a heavily Jewish riding at the centre of the comeback, Shelley Downey, Green $4.5-billion. debate around delaying the election to accom- after representing three dif- candidate Mark de Brujin modate Jewish voters who ferent ridings between 1979 338Canada lists North 9 Edmonton Centre, Alta.: would be unable to vote due and 2004. Mr. Robinson, once Island Powell River as a very Liberal MP Randy Boisson- to the election being held on a high-profi le NDP MP, was tight, four-way race. The rid- nault, Conservative candidate Shemini Atzeret, a Jewish ing is currently represented James Cumming holiday. Conservative can- the fi rst parliamentarian to Conservative by NDP MP Rachel Blaney, After edging out Con- didate Chani Aryeh-Bain is come out as gay while in of- Shelley Downey Conservative who won with 40% of the servative candidate James Orthodox, and fi led a lawsuit fi ce. Burnaby North-Seymour Liberal P Heather Leung vote in 2015, beating Conser- Liberal Cumming, 37.2% to 34.9%, in to delay the election. Elec- was created in 2013 from Marco Mendicino vative runner-up Laura Smith MP Randy the 2015 election, Liberal MP tion Commissioner Stéphane Burnaby-Douglas and North Boissonnault Vancouver. Mr. Robinson represented Burna- who garnered 26.2%. She Randy Boissinnault, special Perrault decided against by-Douglas from 1997 to 2004. Conservative serves as the party’s critic for adviser to Prime Minister recommending delaying the candidate Heather Leung has been clear about seniors and critic for veterans Justin Trudeau on LGBTQ2+ election, citing numerous her anti-abortion views and her opposition to affairs. The Green candidate issues, will be hard-pressed to alternative voting methods B.C.’s sexual orientation and gender identity Mark de Brujin will be look- retain his seat. Alberta is al- Orthodox Jewish voters could policy in public schools. ing to improve on his party’s Liberal most always solidly blue. The use, such as advance polls. 2015 fourth-place fi nish in Peter Schwarzhoff Conservatives hold 28 of the Conservative The riding is currently held Conservative 4 Burnaby South, B.C.: the riding and capitalize on province’s 34 seats and Mr. Chani Aryeh-Bain by Liberal MP Marco Men- James Cumming NDP MP Jagmeet Singh, the Greens’ increasing support nationwide. Boissonnault barely won the dicino who garnered nearly Liberal candidate Neelam Conservative candidate Shelley Downey is seat in 2015. The Liberals cur- 49% of the vote in 2015, edging out then-Con- Brar, and Conservative currently leading, according to 338Canada. rently hold three seats in the province and will servative MP and fi nance minister Joe Oliver, candidate Jay Shin com, and has served as a Port McNeil council- be in for a tough fi ght. James Cumming is run- who won 42.6%. The race is very tight, and NDP Leader Jagmeet NDP Leader lor and school trustee. Liberal candidate Peter ning again in 2019, and is expected to win the turnout may play a decisive role in the ultimate Singh will look to keep his Jagmeet Singh Schwarzhoff is looking to improve on his riding. In 2015, both the Liberals and Conser- outcome. Prior to Mr. Oliver winning in 2011, seat in Parliament after third-place fi nish in the 2015 election, when he vatives spent a considerable amount of money the riding had been represented by Liberals beating Liberal candidate garnered just over 25% of the vote. on the race, $126,839.87 and $132,838.67, since 1979. Longtime Liberal MP Joe Volpe Richard T. Lee, 38.9% to respectively. The riding was represented by held the riding from 1988 to 2011. 26%, in a 2019 byelection. 7 Esquimalt-Saanich- Conservative Laurie Hawn from 2006 to 2015, The riding was created in Sooke, B.C.: NDP MP Randall before he announced in 2014 he wouldn’t run 13 Kanata Carleton, Ont.: 2013 from parts of Burnaby- Garrison, Liberal candidate in the 2015 race. Mr. Cummings is the former Liberal MP Karen McCrim- Douglas and Burnaby-New Jamie Hammond, Green president and CEO of the Edmonton Chamber mon and Conservative candi- candidate David Merner. of Commerce. date Justina McCaffrey Westminster, both of which Liberal were NDP strongholds. NDP This is another impor- Liberal MP Karen Mc- Neelam Brar tant riding for the Green Crimmon, a former lieuten- MP Peter Julian has held NDP MP Manitoba Brunaby-New Westminster Party on Vancouver Island. ant colonel and the fi rst Randall Garrison 10 Churchill-Keewati- Liberal MP since 2004. Neelam Brar NDP MP Randall Gar- woman to command an nook Aski, Man.: NDP MP Karen was recently chosen as the rison, his party’s defence RCAF squadron, won the Niki Ashton, Liberal McCrimmon Liberal candidate after the and LGBTQ2+ critic, will riding with 52.3% of the candidate Judy Klassen Liberal byelection candidate look to retain his seat in the vote, beating Conservative High-profi le NDP MP Richard T. Lee dropped out of face of Green momentum. candidate Walter Pamic, who Niki Ashton has represented the general election contest to David Merner, the Green garnered 39.2%. The riding Conservative the riding since 2008, but care for his sick wife. Conser- candidate, ran as a Liberal NDP MP was fi rst contested in 2015, Jay Shin the 2015 election saw her vative candidate Jay Shin will against Mr. Garrison in the Niki Ashton after being created from parts edge out Liberal candidate be contesting the seat again, Liberal 2015 election, losing 35% to of Carleton-Mississippi Mills Rebecca Chartrand, 45% to hoping to improve on his third-place fi nish in Jamie Hammond 27.4%. In 2015, the Greens and Nepean-Carleton. Both of 42%, her smallest margin Conservative the byelection where he won 22.6%. In the bye- garnered 20% of the vote, those ridings were Conser- of victory. It is a very large Justina lection, People’s Party candidate Laura-Lynn enough for third place, vative strongholds, having northern riding that runs to McCaffrey Thompson won just under 11% of the vote, but and spent nearly $120,000. been represented by Pierre the border of Nunavut. Ms. chose to run in Red Deer-Lacombe, Alta., in the 338Canada.com currently Poilievre and Gordon O’Connor since 2004. Ashton ran unsuccessfully 2019 general election. Al Rawdah is the current shows Mr. Merner with Ms. McCrimmon ran unsuccessfully against for NDP leadershihp in 2012 Liberal PPC candidate. a slim lead over Liberal Mr. O’Connor in Carleton-Mississippi Mills in candidate Jamie Ham- and 2017, placing seventh Judy Klassen the 2011 election, losing by a margin of 56.9% and third, respectively. Her 5 Victoria, B.C.: Green Green mond. Mr. Hammond is a to 23.9%. She then ran for the Liberal leader- father, Steve Ashton, was a Manitoba NDP candidate Racelle Kooy, David Merner veteran of the Armed Forces, ship in 2013, coming in sixth, with under one MLA and minister in two cabinets. She serves Liberal candidate Nikki having served in Bosnia per cent of the vote. Conservative candidate as the NDP critic for jobs, employment, Macdonald, NDP candidate and Afghanistan. The riding is home to the Justina McCaffrey is well-known for her Ot- precarious work, and workforce development, Laurel Collins Canadian Forces Base Esquimalt, Canada’s tawa bridal dress business, McCaffrey Haute and deputy critic for reconciliation. She was Former NDP MP Murray Pacifi c Coast naval base, and home to more Couture, which went bankrupt in 2015. also a proponent of the #HandsOfVenezuela Rankin, who announced in than 4,000 military personnel and 2,762 civil- movement. Liberal candidate Judy Klassen Liberal Nikki January he wouldn’t run in the ians who work at CFB Esquilmalt. 14 Milton, Ont.: was the interim leader of the Manitoba Liberal Macdonald 2019 election, was selected by Conservative MP Lisa Raitt Party from Oct. 2016 to June 2017, the fi rst Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Liberal candidate Alberta female Indigenous leader of the provincial Lib- to chair the new National Adam van Koeverden 8 Edmonton Mill Woods, Alta.: Natural erals. 338 Canada lists the riding as a toss up. Security and Intelligence Popular and high-profi le Resources Minister Amarjeet Sohi and Review Agency, created as a Conservative Deputy Leader Conservative candidate Tim Uppal Conservative MP result of Bill C-59. Laurel Col- Lisa Raitt is facing off against In 2015, Amarjeet Sohi, Ontario Lisa Raitt lins, a Victoria city councillor, Olympic gold medal-winning now minister of natural 11 Burlington, Ont.: will replace Mr. Rankin as the kayaker Adam van Ko- resources, defeated then Liberal MP and Minister Green NDP candidate. Mr. Rankin, a everden for the Milton House Conservative MP Tim Uppal of Democratic Institutions Racelle Kooy well-regarded MP, fi rst ran for seat. Mr. van Koeverden was by 92 votes. Mr. Sohi won Karina Gould, Conservative the seat in a 2012 byelection, twice named fl ag bearer 41.2% of the total vote while candidate Jane Michael garnering 37% of the vote, for the Canadian Olympic Mr. Uppal won 41.1%. Mr. Natural Currently held by Liberal to Green candidate Donald team, one of the only athletes Uppal previously represented Resources MP and Minister of Demo- Galloway’s 34%. In 2015, Mr. Democratic Liberal Adam ever to carry it twice. Over Edmonton-Sherwood Park Minister cratic Institutions Karina Rankin beat Green candidate Institutions van Koeverden his Olympic career, Mr. van from 2008 (35.8%) to 2015 Amarjeet Sohi Gould. Ms. Gould won in Jo-Ann Roberts with 42% of Minister Koeverden won four med- (41.1%), and served as min- 2015 by just over three the vote while Ms. Roberts Karina Gould als, one gold. Ms. Raitt fi rst ran in Halton in ister for democratic reform points, garnering 45.98% earned 33%. Vancouver Island 2008, and represented the riding until it was NDP from May 2011 to July 2013. of the vote to then-Conservative incumbent represents the Greens’ best redistributed in 2013 into fi ve different ridings, Laurel Collins The riding was fi rst contested Mike Wallace’s 42.48%. Mr. Wallace rep- chance to gain additional seats Milton being one. In 2015, Ms. Raitt won 45.4% in 2015, after having been cre- resented the riding from 2006 to 2015. The in the House, and 338Canada of the vote, beating Liberal candidate Azim ated from part of Edmonton- riding will be hotly contested. It is part of the has the Green candidate Racelle Kooy narrowly Rizvee, who won 40.4%. She served as minis- Mill Woods-Beaumont, which 905 region which is a crucial battleground leading the NDP and Liberal candidates, who ter of natural resources, transport, and labour was held by Conservative MP Conservative area to both Liberal and Conservative for- are tied. Mike Lake from 2006 to 2015. Tim Uppal tunes. Conservative candidate Jane Michael Continued on page 17 THE HILL TIMES | MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 17 INSIDER’S GUIDE TO ELECTIONO 2019

Continued from page 16 Indian affairs and northern NDP MP Matthew Dubé is place, then-and-current Bloc development from 1999 to in an uphill battle to maintain Québécois candidate Claude under Stephen Harper, and fi nance critic un- 2003. In the 2004, he did not his seat against Liberal can- André, who garnered 21.03% der interim leader Rona Ambrose. She ran for seek re-election. In 2015, Mr. didate Marie-Chantal Hamel of the vote. Liberal candidate the Conservative leadership in 2017, eventually Nault won 35.4% of the vote and Bloc Québécois Leader Nadine Medawar fi nished dropping out after the seventh round after fail- to NDP candidate Howard Yves-Francois Blanchet. Mr. with 20.68%. ing to crack 4% support. Conservative Hampton’s 33.7%. Prior Dubé was a member of the NDP MP Bloc Québécois Eric Melillo to Mr. Nault, Kenora was McGill Four, four young NDP Matthew Dubé Claude André 23 Beauce, Que.: 15 Ottawa Centre, Ont.: represented by Conservative candidates who were elected People’s Party Leader Max- Liberal MP and Environment Greg Rickford from 2008 to 2015. Conservative in the “Orange Wave” of 2011 ime Bernier, Conservative Minister Catherine McKenna candidate Eric Melillo is 21 years old and spent while still enrolled in universi- candidate Richard Lehoux and NDP candidate Emilie time working in Mr. Rickford’s offi ce. This ty and active in campus poli- The People’s Party of Taman one’s also going to be a nail biter. tics. He was the only member Canada are looking to win Environment Minister Environment of the group re-elected in their fi rst elected seat, as Catherine McKenna is Minister 18 Markham-Stouffville, 2015. Narrowly defeating leader Maxime Bernier seeking reelection, running Liberal Marie- Catherine Ont.: Independent MP then-Liberal candidate Kar- will take on Conservative against NDP candidate Emi- Chantal Hamel McKenna Jane Philpott, Liberal ine Desjardins, Mr. Dubé had People’s Party candidate Richard Lehoux. lie Taman, a former Crown candidate Helena Jaczek 31.07% of the vote, compared Mr. Bernier left the Conserva- prosecutor. Ms. McKenna’s Leader and Conservative candidate to Ms. Dejardins’ 29.34% and Maxime Bernier tives in 2018 to start his own tenure as environment minis- Theodore Antony to then-Bloc Québécois can- party after disagreements ter has been dogged by harsh After resigning from Independent MP didate and former MP Yves with former Conservative criticism, including sexist re- cabinet in solidarity with Jane Philpott Lessard’s 27.68%. Ms. Hamel leadership race rival Andrew marks and death threats. She Jody Wilson-Raybould over is a former Hill staffer in the Scheer. The former Harper has mainly been responsible the SNC-Lavalin affair, and offi ces of Eleni Bakopanos cabinet minister won in 2015 NDP for selling the Liberals’ highly then being kicked out of the and Senator Madeleine Pla- Bloc Québécois with nearly 60% of the vote. Emilie Taman contentious carbon tax, but Liberal caucus, Jane Philpott mondon. Mr. Blanchet was Leader Yves- He has held the seat since various environmental poli- announced she would run as named the Bloc Québécois Francois Blanchet Conservative 2006. Mr. Bernier, an ardent cies have sparked nasty debate on the House an Independent. She previ- leader in January after seven of its 10 MPs left Richard Lehoux opponent of Canada’s dairy fl oor and on social media. She won the riding ously served as president of the party to sit for the now defunct Québec supply management system, in 2015 with 42.7% of the vote, defeating then- the Treasury Board, minister of Liberal debout in protest over the party leader Martine will face off against a former dairy farmer in NDP MP Paul Dewar who won 38.5%. Mr. Health, and minister of Indig- Helena Jaczek Ouellet. All the MPs subsequently returned to Mr. Lehoux, who is also a former president of Dewar, who died of cancer in February, repre- enous services. Ms. Philpott the Bloc Québécois once Ms. Ouellet was out. the Fédération québécoise des municipalités. sented the riding from 2008 to 2015 and was was considered one Prime Mr. Blanchet was a Parti Québécois MNA from Mr. Lehoux was the mayor of Saint-Elzear, considered a star. Ms. Taman is the daughter of Minister Justin Trudeau’s 2008 to 2014. According to 338Canada.com, Que., for 19 years. According to 338Canada, former Supreme Court justice Louise Arbour. strongest cabinet ministers. the race projects to be a close one between Ms. the race will be a toss-up. In 2015, Ms. Taman came in second place in Prior to entering politics, Ms. Hamel and Mr. Blanchet. Ottawa-Vanier, winning nearly 20% of the vote. Philpott was a well-known New Brunswick In a 2017 byelection in the same riding, she and highly regarded medical 21 Longeuil-Saint Hubert, Conservative won nearly 29%. Ottawa Centre tends to fl ip doctor, who worked in both Que.: Green Party MP Pierre 24 Fundy Royal, N.B.: Liberal MP Alaina Theodore Antony between the Liberals and the NDP. Historically, Niger and Ethiopia. In 2015, she Nantel, Liberal candidate Lockhart, Conservative can- Ottawa Centre turnout is one of the highest won 49.2% of the vote, beating Réjean Hébert and Bloc didate Rob Moore rates in the country. Turnout in 2015 was 82.8%. Conservative candidate Paul Calandra, who candidate Denis Trudel In 2015, Liberal MP Alaina This one will be a nail-biter. won 42.7%. Helena Jaczek, the current Liberal New Green Party MP Lockhart turned Fundy candidate, served as minister of community and Green MP Pierre Nantel looks to hang Royal, N.B., red for the fi rst 16 Peterborough-Kawar- social services, and minister of health under Pierre Nantel on to the seat he fi rst won time since 1997. The riding tha, Ont.: Liberal MP and Ontario premier Kathleen Wynne. Ms. Jaczek during under the NDP ban- has been held by a conserva- Liberal MP Minister of International also has years of professional medical experi- ner during the 2011 Orange tive party for the last 94 of Alaina Lockhart Development and Minister ence who served as the chief medical offi cer for Wave. He will face former PQ 102 years. Former Conserva- for Women and Gender Women and the York Region for 18 years. Conservative can- cabinet minister and Liberal tive MP Rob Moore, who sat Equality Maryam Monsef, Gender Equality didate Theordore Antony is a former director in candidate Réjean Hébert and in the House of Commons Conservative candidate Minister the RESP industry. The riding is one of the most Bloc Québécois candidate from 2004 to 2015, is try- Michael Skinner Maryam Monsef diverse, with nearly half the population being a Denis Trudel. Mr. Nantel nar- ing to return to Ottawa. Mr. The same Liberal and visible minority. rowly won in 2015, capturing Moore, a cabinet minister in Conservative candidates will Liberal 31.22% of the vote. Liberal the Stephen Harper govern- again battle against each Réjean Hébert Quebec candidate Mick O’Grady and ment, lost to Ms. Lockhart by other for a seat in the House. Mr. Trudel had 30.01% and a margin of 3.78 per cent of Conservative Liberal Maryam Monsef won 19 Quebec, Que.: Liberal 27.27% of the vote, respec- the vote. In the 42nd Parlia- Rob Moore 43.8% of the vote to Con- MP and Minister of Minister tively. Mr. Hébert was an ment, Ms. Lockhart served servative Michael Skinner’s of Families, Children and MNA from 2012 to 2014, as parliamentary secretary to Tourism, Offi cial 35% in the 2015 election. Conservative Michael Skinner Social Development Jean- serving as health and social Languages and La Francophonie Minister Both candidates spent more Yves Duclos, Conservative services minister in then-pre- Mélanie Joly. than $150,000 in the race. The candidate Bianca Boutin mier Pauline Marois’ cabinet. riding historically swings between Liberal and Social and Bloc candidate Bloc Québécois Mr. Trudel, an actor, will try to Conservative. Mr. Skinner is an entrepreneur Nova Scotia Development Christiane Gagnon Denis Trudel return the riding to the Bloc who has focused on green technology over the Minister Jean- Liberal cabinet minister Québécois fold. Then-Progres- 25 Central Nova, N.S.: Liberal MP Sean course of his career. Ms. Monsef previously Yves Duclos Jean-Yves Duclos is trying sive Conservative MP Nic Leblanc, who won Fraser and Conservative can- served as minister of democratic institutions. to keep his Quebec City seat, the riding in 1984, crossed the fl oor in 1990 to didate George Canyon She was criticized for her government’s as he is being challenged join the newly-formed Bloc Québécois caucus A country rock star wants handling of electoral reform, a key campaign by Conservative candidate that year. The riding remained with the Bloc to take his show to Ottawa, promise that went unfulfi lled, disappoint- Bianca Boutin and Bloc until the 2011 election. The Liberals and the as Conservative candidate ing many supporters. She ran for mayor of Québécois candidate Chris- Bloc are in a tight race, suggests 338Canada, and country singer George Peterborough in 2014, coming in second with Canyon is attempting to tiane Gagon. Mr. Duclos, a with Mr. Nantel projecting to fi nish a distant Sean Fraser 36.5% of the vote to Darryl Bennett’s 41.4%. fi rst-term MP, narrowly de- third. In 2015, the Green Party only had 2.49% unseat Liberal MP Sean Ms. Monsef is the fi rst Afghan-Canadian MP Conservative feated then-NDP MP Annick of the vote. Mr. Nantel attracted national media Fraser. The lanky Mr. Fraser in Canada’s history and the fi rst Muslim to Bianca Boutin Papillon. Mr. Duclos fi nished attention last week when he told an internet is a fi rst-term MP who won serve in cabinet. with 28.9% of the vote to radio show that he wants Quebec to separate in 2015 with 58.53% of the Ms. Papillon’s 27.04%, and from Canada as soon as possible and Green vote. Since 2018, he has been 17 Kenora, Ont.: then-Conservative candidate Party Leader Elizabeth May denied her candi- the parliamentary secretary Liberal MP Bob Nault, Pierre-Thomas Asselin fi n- date is a sovereigntist. to Environment and Climate NDP candidate Rudy ished with 21.79%. Ms. Bou- Change Minister Catherine George Canyon Turtle, and Conservative tin was a press secretary for 22 Rosemont-La-Petite- McKenna. Mr. Canyon has candidate Eric Melillo then-Quebec Liberal cabinet Patrie, Que.: NDP MP won multiple Juno and The NDP recruited Liberal MP Bloc Québécois minister Lucie Charlebois. Alexandre Boulerice, Canadian Country Music Association awards. Grassy Narrows chief Rudy Bob Nault Christiane Gagnon Ms. Gagnon, who was in the Liberal candidate Geneviève Before Mr. Fraser won the riding in 2015, the Turtle to run for them against House from 1993 to 2011, Hinse, Bloc candidate Central Nova, N.S., seat was held by former incumbent Liberal MP Bob was defeated during the NDP’s “Orange Wave” Claude André national defence, foreign affairs, and justice Nault. Chief Turtle’s com- of 2011 and didn’t run in 2015. An August NDP Deputy Leader NDP MP minister Peter MacKay since 2004. It has only munity has been grappling Mainstreet poll that was reported by iPolitics Alexander Boulerice has been held by the Liberals for eight years since with mercury contamina- Alexandre suggested Mr. Duclos was leading the race, held the riding of Rosemont- Boulerice 1968. It was briefl y held by Brian Mulroney tion for decades, and the but his lead was within the margin of error. La-Petite-Patrie, Que., since from 1983 to 1984. Peter MacKay’s father, issue has been dogging the Since 1968, the riding has been held by the 2011. According to 338Cana- Elmer MacKay, stepped aside in the riding Liberal government, as past Liberals for 20 years and the Bloc Québécois da, he will be in a close race to allow Mr. Mulroney to win a seat in the NDP Rudy Turtle attempts at solving the crisis for 18, with the Progressive Conservatives with Liberal candidate Gen- House. Elmer MacKay represented the riding have failed. At a fundraising holding the riding during the Mulroney years. eviève Hinse. Previously, Ms. form 1971 to 1983 and then from 1984 to 1993. event earlier this year, prime minister Justin This one will be interesting to watch. Hinse was the chief of staff It was also represented by MP Liberal Rose- Trudeau was interrupted by a Grassy Nar- anne Skoke from 1993 to 1997. to Health Minister Ginette Liberal rows protestor, and the prime minister then 20 Beloeil-Chambly, Que.: NDP MP Mat- [email protected] Petitpas Taylor. In 2015, Mr. Geneviève Hinse said, “Thank you for your donation,” for which thew Dubé, Liberal candidate Marie-Chantal Boulerice won 49.17% of the [email protected] he was widely criticized. Under the Chrétien Hamel and Bloc Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet vote, winning over second- The Hill Times government, Mr. Nault served as minister of 18 MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 | THE HILL TIMES INSIDER’S GUIDE TO ELECTIONO 2019 On the road again: many media

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, left, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May. The Hill Times took a look at which media organizations are joining the federal party leaders on organizations tour as they kick off the 2019 election campaign. The Hill Times photographs by Andrew Meade tives, reporting that the campaign rating publicly on any additional “We have a pretty signifi cant experienced it’s fi rst “hiccup” when plans,” wrote Mr. Libin. spread of people involved, we don’t Mr. Scheer’s plane was unable to For the fi rst 10 days of the cam- like to have people out for more taking ‘fl exible’ land in Trois-Rivières as intended paign, CBC sent senior reporter than a week at a time—it’s tiring due to fog. The plane was diverted Katie Simpson to join Conserva- work—and it’s also an opportunity to Quebec City and everyone was tive leader Andrew Scheer, with a lot of the time to get younger then bussed to Trois-Rivières for Mr. senior reporter David Cochrane folks involved and give them a Scheer’s fi rst event. joining the Liberals and veteran chance to see how these things approach to A CTV National representa- political reporter Hannah Thibe- work, so we like to try and spread tive told The Hill Times that the deau covering NDP leader Jag- the joy around,” said Mr. McCarten. organization would not disclose meet Singh (Burnaby South, B.C.). Winnipeg Free Press publisher any further information about its CBC’s Ottawa bureau chief Bob Cox told The Hill Times that campaign plans to other media Rob Russo told The Hill Times they rely on the Canadian Press party leader organizations. that as Canada’s public broad- for daily coverage of the tours. Global News’ national Ottawa caster, CBC has a responsibility “We sometimes use staff correspondent Abigail Bimman to be with the leaders throughout journalists to cover the leaders, will be on campaign buses and the entire campaign. but typically only when they are planes throughout the campaign, “This is one of those events in Manitoba, or when our Ottawa tour coverage beginning with the Conservatives when Canadians decide how they’re correspondent plans specifi c in week one. Ottawa bureau chief going to be governed, and a public coverage that might involve being Mercedes Stephenson kicked off broadcaster has to be there to show- around a leader for a relatively The Canadian Press is looking to keep costs the campaign with the Liberals, case an event and give them the short period of time,” wrote Mr. reporting on the grounding of their best information we can to make Cox in an email to The Hill Times. to a bare minimum, The Globe and Mail campaign plane following a colli- that choice,” said Mr. Russo. “Our Ottawa reporter is Dylan sion with a media bus that struck Radio-Canada sent parliamen- Robertson, who provides the bulk will be ‘tactical’ in their planning, and The the wing, causing “visible damage.” tary correspondents Philippe- of our national coverage on the Toronto Star will take a ‘fl exible’ approach “Media were on the bus leav- Vincent Foisy to join the Liberals, federal campaign, including any ing the airport when we heard Louis Blouin to the Conservatives, reporting on the leaders. Other- to covering the federal party leader tours. a loud rolling/scraping noise,” and Christian Noël to ride with wise, we use reports assigned from wrote Ms. Stephenson on Twitter. the NDP. National reporter Julie our Winnipeg newsroom to specifi c “Looked up and saw the plane’s Marceau will join Bloc Québécois events, or issues in the campaign.” BY MIKE LAPOINTE The Toronto Star’s Tonda Mac- wing and realized we had gone leader Yves-François Blanchet, Mr. Cox also wrote that they Charles was with Mr. Trudeau for the under it and the sound was the and reporter Laurence Martin will have no plans on joining Maxime s the party leaders fi rst few days of the campaign, with roof of the bus grinding against cover Green Party leader Elizabeth Bernier on his tour, given “limited kicked off their national her colleagues Alex Boutilier and the wing of the plane.” May (Saanich—Gulf Islands, B.C.). resources” and the fact that “his campaigns last week, Alex Ballingall joining the Conserva- As for Postmedia, executive party does not appear to be a seri- The Hill Times took a tives and the NDP respectively. editor Kevin Libin said they’ve ous threat to win any seats in Man- The Hill Costs for media Alook at which media organiza- Mr. Ballingall told made arrangements to have writ- itoba, or, for that matter, anywhere Times The Star’s tions are joining them on their that plan is to ers on the Liberal and Conserva- organizations to join else,” though they might revise buses and planes, and what sort have a strong presence on the tive tours, starting last week, for party leader tours plans if the situation changes. of planning goes into coverage leader’s planes and buses, “decid- at least a few days. “We are a news organization of leader tours in a 40-day sprint ing as we go along.” “We may decide to continue signifi cantly different and we respond to what is mak- toward election day on Oct. 21. “Bureau reporters will be with covering them or return to their For the 2019 election cam- ing news,” wrote Mr. Cox. The Globe and Mail parliamen- the three main leaders in the tours again later in the cam- paign, the Liberals are charging Mr. Russo said CBC report- tary reporter Michelle Zilio kicked opening days,” said Mr. Ballingall. paign—or not,” wrote Mr. Libin in $1,000 per day, $5,500 per week, or ers would be with the leaders “no off the campaign by following “We’re going to be fl exible in an email. “That will be an editorial $27,000 for journalists to join the matter what it cost.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Pap- deciding where we’re best placed decision that we make as circum- tour for the full campaign. For the “It didn’t change our planning,” ineau, Que.) to Vancouver Kingsway, to cover this thing!” stances warrant.” Conservatives, it’s $11,500 for the said Mr. Russo. “It’s always, for all while Queen’s Park bureau reporter full tour, $2,450 for the week, and kinds of reasons, one of the most Laura Stone covered Conservative $350 for one day. The NDP come in expensive aspects of covering a leader Andrew Scheer’s (Regina- at the high end of campaign costs, campaign, traveling on the road, Qu’Appelle, Sask.) opening day charging $40,000 for the full tour, hotel rooms, long hours, all of those event in Woodbridge, Ont., just $8,500 per week, and $1,400 per things that cost a lot of money.” north of Toronto. Ryan MacDonald, day, “based on cost recovery, what Elly Alboim, a professor at Car- the head of programming at The each seat costs, taxes and food in,” leton University’s journalism school Globe and Mail, said his organiza- according to NDP spokesperson who worked for CBC as a parlia- tion’s plan “is and always has been Mélanie Richer. mentary bureau chief and national to be strategic about our travel and According to acting Ottawa political editor, said that in a “world be tactical about it, and be fair.” bureau chief James McCarten, of alienation from politics and gov- “We’re covering all the the Canadian Press will be with ernment,” leadership is emerging as campaigns and we can do that the Liberals and Conservatives a dominant criteria for voter choice. in a number of ways, we don’t for the duration of the campaign, Prof. Alboim said it’s hard to always have to be traveling with and are trying to keep their costs imagine an election campaign the campaigns in order to cover to a bare minimum “like every without a leadership tour. them,” said Mr. MacDonald. “We outlet out there.” “There’s not much that any have a lot of bureaus across the “Quite honestly, when we were particular voter can see or [do to] country, so we are able to be with trying to fi gure out how we were assess the performance or com- the leaders when they are making going to do this several months petence of a leader, and the only announcements.” ago, we weren’t sure we were go- way they can do that is by con- “Having said that, we’ve all ing to be able to go out with any suming coverage of the leader’s seen that the stories are not on of them, so this is a compromise tours,” said Prof. Alboim. the bus, the stories are the stories Members of the media on the Liberal plane on day one of the campaign that we’ve struck where we will “It doesn’t have much to do and issues we want to push as an leading up to the Oct. 21 election, including Globe and Mail journalist go out with the Liberals and the with the experience people are organization,” continued Mr. Mac- Michelle Zilio, CBC’s David Cochrane, CTV’s Mercedes Stephenson and Joyce Conservatives and we’ll join the having on the ground in the rid- Donald. “In some cases, we want to Napier, La Presse Canadienne’s Catherine Lévesque, Canadian Press reporter NDP in the fi nal week of the cam- ings, but the problem we have is report what the politicians are say- Teresa Wright, Radio-Canada’s Philippe-Vincent Foisy, and Bloomberg’s paign,” said Mr. McCarten, who that nobody has found a way to ing, but in a lot of cases we want Theophilos Argitis. Photograph courtesy of Tonda MacCharles Twitter account noted they’ll have a photographer provide a shared national experi- to raise issues that we believe they on Mr. Singh’s tour to gather ence in an election campaign, should be talking about. That’s not CTV National news reporter “Given that we operate in a photos, video, and audio for CP. other than the leaders’ tours.” always the way things go when Glen McGregor spent the week with highly competitive industry, I “It will be in that fi nal week that [email protected] you are traveling on the bus.” Andrew Scheer and the Conserva- would not be interested in elabo- we’ll have someone on each bus.” The Hill Times THE HILL TIMES | MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 19 INSIDER’S GUIDE TO ELECTIONO 2019 Parties’ promises cover health, economy, immigration with campaign underway

a bid to force them to share price plastics come 2021 and $5,000 in the Senate when the election the Safe Third Country Agree- The Conservatives rebates they offer to private and in incentives for those buying was called. The Liberals, NDP, and ment, allowing Canada to deport public drug coverage payers. electric cars under $45,000. Mr. Greens have promised to imple- those seeking refugee status com- want to roll Trudeau supports the Keystone ment legislation to do the same. Mr. ing from the U.S. XL pipeline, but not the Northern Scheer, however, said at the Ma- The NDP wants to suspend the back most of the Economy and workers Gateway pipeline, and the party clean’s and Citytv leaders’ debate Safe Third Country Agreement Liberals’ signature In 2015, the Liberals cam- has legislated a permanent ban last week that doing so would hold and allow people to make asylum paigned on a promise to balance on tanker traffi c on B.C.’s north resource projects “hostage.” claims at offi cial border cross- environmental the books by 2019, but this year’s coast. The Liberals have also commit- ings, while the Bloc’s leadersaid budget leaves the country still in The NDP wants to create a ted to lifting all long-term drinking the party wants to focus on a new policies, while the the red. With the 2019-20 defi cit $3-billion climate bank, with the water advisories on reserves by Quebec nationalism. Liberals and NDP projected at $19.8-billion, the party goal of powering the country with March 2021, and have earmarked said it would drop it to $9.8-billion net carbon-free electricity by 2030. $13-million to honour the lives of Cybersecurity have promised more by 2023-24, and to cap employee It wants to electrify transit and missing and murdered Indigenous stock option deductions to other city fl eets by 2030, abandon women and girls in response to The Liberals want to hold off on expansive health care $200,000 for high-income earners the Trans Mountain expansion the inquiry’s fi nal report. deciding whether Huawei would be in large and mature companies. project, target a retrofi t of all The NDP, for its part, wants to allowed to participate in the devel- coverage. It also hopes to push forward housing stock by 2050 by offer- establish a National Indigenous opment of Canada’s 5G network on the Trans Mountain pipeline ing low-interest repayable loans Peoples Day, lift drinking water until after the vote, as Canada expansion from Alberta to B.C. tries to balance pressure from the BY PALAK MANGAT through energy savings to pay for advisories by 2021, build treat- in a push to cre- ment centres for U.S. to block the company with ate jobs and add those impacted concerns about the two Canadians ost of the big parties’ to government by long-term being detained by China’s govern- platforms are still un- coffers—a project mercury expo- ment during a diplomatic dispute der wraps in the early the Conservatives sure, and com- between the two countries. days of the election want to press for- pensate families Mr. Scheer has been un- Mcampaign, but the leaders have ward on, while the hit by poisoning equivocal in calling for a ban on already made a series of com- NDP and Greens in Grassy Nar- Huawei’s participation, while mitments on issues ranging from want to halt it. rows. the NDP is critical, but wants immigration to climate change The Conserva- The Greens the decision to be left to national during the past four years. tives, who have want to consult security agencies. In this election, Liberal centred their pitch with Indigenous Leader Justin Trudeau is eye- on the issue of groups about Defence ing a second term in offi ce after “affordability,” are when and where voters delivered him a majority looking to remove to repeal the In- Mr. Scheer wants to join four years ago. Andrew Scheer is the federal sales dian Act, remove Washington’s anti-ballistic missile making a play for the top job in tax from home- the two per cent defence program, which aims to de- hopes of returning the country to heating bills, funding cap tect attacks on the U.S. and its allies, a Conservative government. NDP balance the budget on Indigenous and modernize North American Leader Jagmeet Singh is looking in fi ve years, and It’s on: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative Party Leader post-secondary Aerospace Defense Command if to propel his party past its current remove federal Andrew Scheer are running neck-in-neck in the public opinion polls right education, and elected, as well as expand the mili- third-party status, and the Green income tax from now. The Hill Times photographs by Andrew Meade partner with In- tary mission in Ukraine. The NDP Party’s Elizabeth May is hoping EI maternity and digenous groups would change service principles so for more seat mates to join her in paternal benefi ts by offering a upgrades, and ban single-use plas- to improve energy development in those ill and injured members of the the House. non-refundable tax credit of 15 tics by 2022. The Greens want to First Nations communities or Indig- Canadian Armed Forces “are not Before Parliament was dis- per cent. end all imports of foreign oil and enous lands. unfairly pushed out of service” and solved last week, there were 177 In a bid to contrast themselves turn solid bitumen from Canada remove self-harm as a disciplinary Liberals, 95 Conservatives, 39 offence in the military. with the Liberals, the NDP wants into gas and diesel, set targets of Social affairs New Democrats, 10 Bloc Québé- to see a one per cent wealth tax 60 per cent greenhouse gas reduc- cois members, eight Indepen- on those making over $20-million. tions against 2005 fi gures by 2030 The Liberals ruled out a Foreign policy dents, two Green Party MPs, one nationwide handgun ban after Other pledges aimed at appealing and have zero emissions by 2050, The RCMP’s arrest of Hua- Co-operative Commonwealth to their base and would-be sup- eliminate all subsidies to fossil passing gun control legislation Federation MP, and one People’s through Bill C-71, which the Con- wei executive Meng Wanzhou in porters include banning the use fuels, and ban fracking. December, at the behest of the U.S., Party MP in the House. of replacement workers in labour servatives have pledged to repeal, Only the NDP and People’s claiming that it effectively func- and China’s ban on canola imports disputes, extending sickness Parliamentary reform from Canada, along with a tempo- Party have shared their platforms benefi ts to 50 weeks, and waiving tions as a “backdoor gun registry.” publicly so far. The Hill Times During the last campaign, the The Trudeau government has dis- rary ban on red meat, have strained federal sales tax on construction relations between the two countries. pored over the policy speeches of new affordable rental units. Liberals said 2015 would be the puted that claim, saying the law and pledges that the four major last election under a fi rst-past- aims to strengthen background China has since imprisoned If elected, the Greens have two Canadians accused of spying, parties offered since the last pledged to balance the budget by the-post system. After a parlia- checks and record keeping. election in an attempt to win over mentary committee, town halls The NDP says cities should and Mr. Trudeau said China is the end of their four year mandate using such detentions as pressure Canadians. Below are some of the and would stick to a carbon-pricing and a national survey, though, Mr. have the fl exibility to ban hand- highlights of their pitches. Trudeau abandoned that pledge. guns, while the Greens argue tactics to support its domestic framework. and international political goals. They have also committed The Liberals have no plans to there should be a ban on semi- revive that commitment, unless automatic assault rifl es and all The Conservatives want to look Health care to sticking to a carbon price to at other areas beyond China for curb emissions through a fee and other parties agree to a system handguns except those used by After setting up an advisory that is not proportional represen- police and for sport. new trade, and end a $250-million panel on pharmacare, which dividend system, keeping taxation investment in the Asian Infra- at no more than nine per cent for tation. The Liberals also criticized a published its fi nal report in June, The NDP wants to bring in contentious Quebec law passed structure Investment Bank. the Liberals have said they intend small businesses, and creating a On the Middle East policy, Mr. Green Worker Training Program mixed-member proportional this summer that bans public to move forward with a national representation, with the goal of workers from wearing religious Scheer also wants to start the pro- plan that would seek to ensure that teaches fossil fuel workers cess to move Canada’s embassy about renewable energy industries. having it in place for the next symbols, but has said it would be Canadians have drug coverage. election, and then hold a referen- “counterproductive” to intervene in Israel to Jerusalem from Tel No date has been set for reaching dum on whether to keep the new at this point. Both the Conserva- Aviv, following the U.S.’ lead. that goal. The NDP, meanwhile, Climate change and system after one election. The tives and NDP says they respect The Liberals are reviewing a is committing to implementing energy Conservatives want to push for a the rights of Quebecers. Mr. Singh, multibillion-dollar arms deal with universal coverage to all Canadi- referendum on whatever changes who would not be able to don his Saudi Arabia after the killing of The Conservatives want to Washington Post ans by 2020. come forth, and the Green Party turban if he worked in Quebec, has journalist Jamal scrap the Liberals’ clean fuel The Greens, for their part, are wants to scrap the fi rst-past-the- been a vocal critic of the bill he Khashoggi last year. No fi nal deci- standard, the government’s looking to include basic dental post system in favour of propor- sees as “divisive.” Mr. Scheer had sion on cancelling the nearly $15-bil- framework to curb fuel emissions, care in national health care cover- tional representation. said it’s not something his party lion contract has been made yet. and the carbon price; repeal Bill age and create more safe-injection would consider on a federal level. With thousands of jobs poten- sites. The Conservatives are prom- C-69, the feds’ environmental as- tially at risk in London, Ont., where ising to bump up health transfers sessment legislation; end the ban Indigenous affairs the light-armoured vehicles are and a social transfer by a mini- on shipping traffi c in B.C.’s North A private member’s bill from Immigration manufactured, Mr. Scheer does not mum of three per cent each year. Coast; and use federal power “to NDP MP Romeo Saganash (Abiti- The Conservatives argue that want to see it cancelled. Mr. Singh Addressing the issue of opioid declare a major project ‘for the bi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou, Canada should prioritize econom- and Ms. May, on the other hand, abuse, the NDP has called for a general advantage of Canada.’ “ Que.) to enshrine the UN Declara- ic immigration, end border cross- are both opposed to the LAV deal. probe into the role drug companies Part of the Liberals’ climate tion on the Rights of Indigenous ings at unoffi cial points of entry, [email protected] have played in fuelling the crisis, in plan includes a ban on single-use Peoples died on the Order Paper and close perceived loopholes in The Hill Times WE KNOW THE VALUE OF A VETERAN

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