Seat Projection

www.ekospolitics.ca EKOS Seat Projection:

Special thanks go to Earl Washburn and Graham Pressey, who were the principal investigators in creating this seat forecast.

[Ottawa – October 19, 2015] With just hours to go until the polls close, EKOS is offering a seat projection based on what we believe to be perhaps the strongest riding prediction model extant at this time. We have been constantly refining our model which is populated with the nearly 130,000 cases we have collected since January. We have made a number of qualitative adjustments based on each riding’s history and candidates.

Before digging into the numbers, we would like to provide two very important caveats:

1.) Our model assumes that our final numbers are accurate. There were a lot of last minute movements, particularly in Quebec. For example, our final poll had the Liberals at 36 points. However, the Liberals were clearly on an upward trend at the time our final poll was conducted and they could easily find themselves a few points higher this evening. With the large number of three- and four-way races in this country, a difference of one or two points could easily translate to a difference of 10 or 20 seats.

2.) There are a lot of close calls in Quebec. Many Quebec ridings are tight four-way races, meaning that many of these seats will be won with less than 30 per cent of the vote. With margins this thin, there is a very wide margin for error in terms of final seat tally. Also, there were a lot of late movements in the province, including a last minute surge in support for the Bloc Québécois.

Our final projected seat tallies are as follows:

LIBERAL CONSERVATIVE NDP BQ GREEN 151 116 54 16 1

Notable potential losses

At this stage, we believe that all five major party leaders are positioned to win their home ridings (although Gilles Duceppe faces a very tight race in his riding of Laurier—Sainte-Marie). There are, however, a number of incumbents who are not likely to win their seats this evening. Some of these notable losses include:

Conservative Party:

• Bernard Valcourt, Minister of Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development, Madawaska — Restigouche, MB • Chris Alexander, Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, Ajax, ON • Gail Shea, Minister of Fisheries and Oceans, Egmont, PEI • Greg Rickford, Minister of Natural Resources, Kenora, ON • Joe Oliver, Minister of Finance, Eglinton—Lawrence, ON • Julian Fantino, Minister of National Defence, Vaughan—Woodbridge, ON • Keith Ashfield, Fredericton, NB • Leona Aglukkaq, Minister of the Environment, Nunavut • Paul Calandra, Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister, Markham—Stouffville, ON

New Democratic Party:

• Françoise Boivin, Gatineau, QC • John Rafferty, Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON • Maria Mourani, Ahuntsic-Cartierville, QC • Megan Leslie, Halifax, NS • Nycole Turmel, Hull—Aylmer, QC • Pat Martin, Winnipeg Centre, MB • Peter Stoffer, Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook, NS • Peggy Nash, Parkdale—High Park, ON

Other:

• Bruce Hyer (GP), Thunder Bay—Superior North, ON • Jean-François Fortin (SD), Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia, QC • Scott Andrews (Independent), Avalon, NL

Riding-by-riding forecasts:

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR FORECAST Avalon LIBERAL Bonavista—Burin—Trinity LIBERAL Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame LIBERAL Labrador LIBERAL Long Range Mountains LIBERAL St. John’s East NDP St. John’s South—Mount Pearl LIBERAL

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FORECAST Cardigan LIBERAL Charlottetown LIBERAL Egmont LIBERAL Malpeque LIBERAL

NOVA SCOTIA FORECAST Cape Breton—Canso LIBERAL Central Nova LIBERAL Cumberland—Colchester LIBERAL Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LIBERAL Halifax LIBERAL Halifax West LIBERAL Kings—Hants LIBERAL Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook LIBERAL South Shore—St. Margarets LIBERAL Sydney—Victoria LIBERAL West Nova LIBERAL

NEW BRUNSWICK FORECAST Acadie—Bathurst LIBERAL Beauséjour LIBERAL Fredericton LIBERAL Fundy Royal CONSERVATIVE Madawaska—Restigouche LIBERAL Miramichi—Grand Lake LIBERAL Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe LIBERAL New Brunswick Southwest CONSERVATIVE Saint John—Rothesay LIBERAL Tobique—Mactaquac LIBERAL

QUEBEC FORECAST Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou NDP Abitibi—Témiscamingue NDP Ahuntsic-Cartierville LIBERAL Alfred-Pellan LIBERAL Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LIBERAL Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia LIBERAL Beauce CONSERVATIVE Beauport–Côte-de-Beaupré–Île d'Orléans–Charlevoix CONSERVATIVE Beauport—Limoilou CONSERVATIVE Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel BQ Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CONSERVATIVE Beloeil—Chambly BQ Berthier—Maskinongé NDP Bourassa LIBERAL Brome—Missisquoi LIBERAL Brossard—Saint-Lambert LIBERAL Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CONSERVATIVE Châteauguay—Lacolle BQ Chicoutimi—Le Fjord NDP Compton—Stanstead NDP Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LIBERAL Drummond NDP Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine LIBERAL Gatineau LIBERAL Hochelaga NDP Honoré-Mercier LIBERAL Hull—Aylmer LIBERAL Joliette BQ Jonquière NDP La Pointe-de-l'Île NDP La Prairie BQ Lac-Saint-Jean CONSERVATIVE Lac-Saint-Louis LIBERAL LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LIBERAL Laurentides—Labelle BQ Laurier—Sainte-Marie BQ Laval—Les Îles LIBERAL Lévis—Lotbinière CONSERVATIVE Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ

Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ Louis-Hébert CONSERVATIVE Louis-Saint-Laurent CONSERVATIVE Manicouagan NDP Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LIBERAL Mégantic—L'Érable CONSERVATIVE Mirabel BQ Montarville BQ Montcalm BQ Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup CONSERVATIVE Mount Royal LIBERAL Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LIBERAL Outremont NDP Papineau LIBERAL Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ Pierrefonds—Dollard LIBERAL Pontiac LIBERAL Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CONSERVATIVE Québec NDP Repentigny BQ Richmond—Arthabaska CONSERVATIVE Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques NDP Rivière-des-Mille-Îles NDP Rivière-du-Nord BQ Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot NDP Saint-Jean NDP Saint-Laurent LIBERAL Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LIBERAL Saint-Maurice—Champlain LIBERAL Salaberry—Suroît BQ Shefford NDP Sherbrooke NDP Terrebonne NDP Thérèse-De Blainville NDP Trois-Rivières NDP Vaudreuil—Soulanges LIBERAL Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Sœurs LIBERAL Vimy LIBERAL

ONTARIO FORECAST Ajax LIBERAL Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing NDP Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill LIBERAL Barrie—Innisfil LIBERAL Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte LIBERAL Bay of Quinte LIBERAL Beaches—East York LIBERAL Brampton Centre LIBERAL Brampton East LIBERAL Brampton North LIBERAL Brampton South LIBERAL Brampton West LIBERAL Brantford–Brant LIBERAL Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CONSERVATIVE Burlington CONSERVATIVE Cambridge LIBERAL Carleton CONSERVATIVE Chatham-Kent—Leamington CONSERVATIVE Davenport LIBERAL Don Valley East LIBERAL Don Valley North LIBERAL Don Valley West LIBERAL Dufferin—Caledon CONSERVATIVE Durham LIBERAL Eglinton—Lawrence LIBERAL Elgin—Middlesex—London CONSERVATIVE Essex CONSERVATIVE Etobicoke Centre LIBERAL Etobicoke North LIBERAL Etobicoke—Lakeshore LIBERAL Flamborough—Glanbrook CONSERVATIVE Glengarry—Prescott—Russell LIBERAL Guelph LIBERAL Haldimand—Norfolk CONSERVATIVE Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock CONSERVATIVE Hamilton Centre NDP Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP Hamilton Mountain LIBERAL Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas LIBERAL

Hastings—Lennox and Addington CONSERVATIVE Humber River–Black Creek LIBERAL Huron—Bruce LIBERAL Kanata—Carleton LIBERAL Kenora NDP King—Vaughan LIBERAL Kingston and the Islands LIBERAL Kitchener Centre LIBERAL Kitchener South—Hespeler LIBERAL Kitchener—Conestoga LIBERAL Lambton—Kent—Middlesex CONSERVATIVE Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston CONSERVATIVE Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CONSERVATIVE London North Centre LIBERAL London West LIBERAL London—Fanshawe NDP Markham—Stouffville LIBERAL Markham—Thornhill LIBERAL Markham—Unionville LIBERAL Milton CONSERVATIVE Mississauga Centre LIBERAL Mississauga East–Cooksville LIBERAL Mississauga—Erin Mills LIBERAL Mississauga—Lakeshore LIBERAL Mississauga—Malton LIBERAL Mississauga—Streetsville LIBERAL Nepean LIBERAL Newmarket—Aurora LIBERAL Niagara Centre NDP Niagara Falls CONSERVATIVE Niagara West CONSERVATIVE Nickel Belt NDP Nipissing—Timiskaming LIBERAL Northumberland–Peterborough South LIBERAL Oakville LIBERAL Oakville North—Burlington LIBERAL Orléans LIBERAL Oshawa NDP Ottawa Centre NDP Ottawa South LIBERAL Ottawa West—Nepean LIBERAL

Ottawa—Vanier LIBERAL Oxford CONSERVATIVE Parkdale—High Park LIBERAL Parry Sound—Muskoka CONSERVATIVE Perth—Wellington CONSERVATIVE Peterborough–Kawartha LIBERAL Pickering—Uxbridge LIBERAL Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke CONSERVATIVE Richmond Hill LIBERAL Sarnia—Lambton CONSERVATIVE Sault Ste. Marie LIBERAL Scarborough Centre LIBERAL Scarborough North LIBERAL Scarborough Southwest LIBERAL Scarborough—Agincourt LIBERAL Scarborough—Guildwood LIBERAL Scarborough—Rouge Park LIBERAL Simcoe North CONSERVATIVE Simcoe—Grey CONSERVATIVE Spadina—Fort York LIBERAL St. Catharines LIBERAL Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry CONSERVATIVE Sudbury LIBERAL Thornhill CONSERVATIVE Thunder Bay—Rainy River LIBERAL Thunder Bay—Superior North LIBERAL Timmins—James Bay NDP Toronto Centre LIBERAL Toronto–St. Paul's LIBERAL Toronto—Danforth NDP University—Rosedale LIBERAL Vaughan—Woodbridge LIBERAL Waterloo LIBERAL Wellington—Halton Hills CONSERVATIVE Whitby LIBERAL Willowdale LIBERAL Windsor West NDP Windsor—Tecumseh NDP York Centre CONSERVATIVE York South—Weston LIBERAL York—Simcoe CONSERVATIVE

MANITOBA FORECAST Brandon—Souris CONSERVATIVE Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley CONSERVATIVE Churchill—Keewatinook Aski NDP Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa CONSERVATIVE Elmwood—Transcona CONSERVATIVE Kildonan—St. Paul CONSERVATIVE Portage—Lisgar CONSERVATIVE Provencher CONSERVATIVE Saint Boniface—Saint Vital LIBERAL Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CONSERVATIVE Winnipeg Centre LIBERAL Winnipeg North LIBERAL Winnipeg South LIBERAL Winnipeg South Centre LIBERAL

SASKATCHEWAN FORECAST Battlefords—Lloydminster CONSERVATIVE Cypress Hills—Grasslands CONSERVATIVE Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River CONSERVATIVE Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CONSERVATIVE Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CONSERVATIVE Prince Albert CONSERVATIVE Regina—Lewvan NDP Regina—Qu'Appelle CONSERVATIVE Regina—Wascana LIBERAL Saskatoon—Grasswood CONSERVATIVE Saskatoon—University CONSERVATIVE Saskatoon West NDP Souris—Moose Mountain CONSERVATIVE Yorkton—Melville CONSERVATIVE

ALBERTA FORECAST Banff—Airdrie CONSERVATIVE Battle River—Crowfoot CONSERVATIVE Bow River CONSERVATIVE Calgary Centre CONSERVATIVE Calgary Confederation CONSERVATIVE Calgary Forest Lawn CONSERVATIVE Calgary Heritage CONSERVATIVE Calgary Midnapore CONSERVATIVE Calgary Nose Hill CONSERVATIVE Calgary Rocky Ridge CONSERVATIVE Calgary Shepard CONSERVATIVE Calgary Signal Hill CONSERVATIVE Calgary Skyview CONSERVATIVE Edmonton Centre CONSERVATIVE Edmonton Griesbach CONSERVATIVE Edmonton Manning CONSERVATIVE Edmonton Mill Woods CONSERVATIVE Edmonton Riverbend CONSERVATIVE Edmonton Strathcona NDP Edmonton West CONSERVATIVE Edmonton—Wetaskiwin CONSERVATIVE Foothills CONSERVATIVE Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CONSERVATIVE Grande Prairie–Mackenzie CONSERVATIVE Lakeland CONSERVATIVE Lethbridge CONSERVATIVE Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner CONSERVATIVE Peace River—Westlock CONSERVATIVE Red Deer—Mountain View CONSERVATIVE Red Deer–Lacombe CONSERVATIVE St. Albert—Edmonton CONSERVATIVE Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CONSERVATIVE Sturgeon River–Parkland CONSERVATIVE Yellowhead CONSERVATIVE

BRITISH COLUMBIA FORECAST Abbotsford CONSERVATIVE Burnaby North—Seymour LIBERAL Burnaby South NDP Cariboo—Prince George CONSERVATIVE Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola CONSERVATIVE Chilliwack—Hope CONSERVATIVE Cloverdale—Langley City CONSERVATIVE Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CONSERVATIVE Courtenay—Alberni NDP Cowichan—Malahat—Langford NDP Delta CONSERVATIVE Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke NDP Fleetwood—Port Kells CONSERVATIVE Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo CONSERVATIVE Kelowna—Lake Country CONSERVATIVE Kootenay—Columbia CONSERVATIVE Langley—Aldergrove CONSERVATIVE Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon CONSERVATIVE Nanaimo—Ladysmith NDP New Westminster—Burnaby NDP North Island–Powell River NDP North Okanagan—Shuswap CONSERVATIVE North Vancouver LIBERAL Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CONSERVATIVE Port Moody—Coquitlam CONSERVATIVE Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CONSERVATIVE Richmond Centre CONSERVATIVE Saanich—Gulf Islands GREEN Skeena—Bulkley Valley NDP South Okanagan—West Kootenay NDP South Surrey—White Rock CONSERVATIVE Steveston—Richmond East CONSERVATIVE Surrey Centre NDP Surrey—Newton LIBERAL Vancouver Centre LIBERAL Vancouver East NDP Vancouver Granville LIBERAL Vancouver Kingsway NDP Vancouver Quadra LIBERAL

Vancouver South LIBERAL Victoria NDP West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LIBERAL

TERRITORIES FORECAST Yukon LIBERAL Northwest Territories NDP Nunavut LIBERAL