CIRAM CASE STUDY 5: THORNEY ISLAND CONTENTS Introduction ................................................................................................................ 2 Summary of Site Information ...................................................................................... 3 Summary of Projected Climatic Information ....................................................................... 3 Identification of Risks and Adaptation Measures………………………………………....5 Summary of Key Risks ............................................................................................. 17 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………….. 18 Glossary of Abbreviations......................................................................................... 20 Annex A ................................................................................................................... 21 Annex B ................................................................................................................... 26 Crown Copyright INTRODUCTION Climate Impacts Risk Assessment Methodology (CIRAM) 1. CIRAM has been developed by Defence Estates (in partnership with specialist climate risk consultants, Acclimatise) with the aim of assessing potential threats to MOD sites as a result of projected climate change and help maintain each estates operational capability and capacity. The outcomes of CIRAM can inform management planning and decision making e.g. through Integrated Estate Management Plans (IEMPs) and Business Continuity Plans. 2. Additionally under the UK Climate Change Act (2008) and Government Sustainable Operation of the Government Estate (SOGE) targets, the MOD is required to carry out an assessment of the risks from the impacts of climate change on its critical sites by 2013, and also to report on the development of adaptation plans. 3. As part of the tool’s development, CIRAM process was trialled at five MOD sites. The outcomes and lessons learned from each of these pilots informed the development of CIRAM. This paper reports on Thorney Island, the fifth of the pilot studies and indentifies climate change risks to the establishment’s objectives and critical operational functions as a result of current and future climate conditions, as well as identify the management actions to build resilience. CIRAM workshop 4. The CIRAM workshop at Thorney Island took place on the 11 Feb 10 and was split between 5 working sessions, 4 on each climate variable and 1 exploring interactions. 5. Each climate variable working session comprised of: • A presentation on climate change science, focussing on observed trends and projected impacts to the UK. • Presentations on the site specific impacts using the latest UK climate projections in each climate variable (temperature, precipitation, storminess and sea level rise) and their interactions. • The identification, recording and scoring of potential risks to the site (on a risk register). • The identification of existing and potential risk management options. 6. The interactions session expanded upon risks and management options identified in each climate variable working session. Participants 7. The following roles were represented at the workshop: • Representatives from the military regiments and ATC on site (RHQ 2IC 47 Regt RA, RHQ 2IC 12 Regt RA, 12 RA HQ USA) • Business continuity • Estate focal point for Property/Facility management 2 • Station Staff Officer • Site Delivery Manager • Site Facilities Management • Contract management RPC representative (PRIDE) • Sustainable Development and Infrastructure Army advisory team • HQ Estates Requirement Officer (4 DIV, 2 Bde) SUMMARY OF SITE INFORMATION 8. Baker Barracks on Thorney Island is home to 12 Regt RA (Close Air Defence CAD Regiment, 47 Regt RA (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle UAV Regiment) and TA Signals. There is also SFA on the island. The site was first used by the Royal Air Force in 1935 as a fighter station and later a for Coastal Command base during the WWII. In 1984, the site was taken over by the Army. 9. The built estate is made up of three main areas: Airfield Area: The runways and perimeter tracks are in reasonable condition and used for military driver training. Technical Area: The technical area in the centre of the island to the west of the main runway is used for the majority of desk and workshop based training on site. It includes former aircraft hangers, ranges and an assault course. There is also housing and a primary school to the north-west . West Thorney Village: The village is made up of the officer’s mess, church and service family accommodation. There is also a sailing clubhouse and workshops, with a jetty into Thorney Channel. The airfield and facilities were constructed for the RAF prior to the WWII. Many of the buildings have been adapted to fit with the needs of the Army. The site was subject to an extensive upgrade (Project Thornwood), as a result of the last Strategic Defence Review. 10. Thorney Island is situated in Chichester Harbour, West Sussex on the South coast of England. There is one road connecting the mainland with the island. See Annex A for further information. SUMMARY OF PROJECTED CLIMATIC INFORMATION 11. UKCP09 provides climatic information for the UK (broken down into 25km 2) up to the end of the century. A number of projections are given based on a number of emission scenarios (low, medium and high). For Thorney Island, the high emissions scenario was used. This indicates that: • Mean summer temperature: By the 2050s it is very likely that the average summer temperature will increase by between +1.4 o C to +5.3 o C. There is a high likelihood that by the 2050s, mean summer temperatures will increase. 3 • Number of hot days annually (days above 25 oC): By the 2080s (2070 – 2099) and under the medium emissions scenario it is very likely that there will be between 20 hot days in every 9 in 10 years and 90 hot days in every 1 in 10 years in the area around Thorney Island. There is a high likelihood that by the 2080s the frequency and/or length of hot periods will increase. • Change in winter mean precipitation: By the 2050s it is very likely that winter precipitation will increase by between +1.5% to +44%. There is a high likelihood that by the 2050s the precipitation in winter will increase. • Change in precipitation on the wettest day in winter : By 2050 it is very likely that the average precipitation on the wettest day in winter will increase by +1.2% to +34.3%. There is a high likelihood that by the 2050s winter precipitation will become more intense. • Change in summer mean precipitation: By the 2050s it is very likely that summer precipitation will change by between +2.4% to -51%. There is high likelihood that by the 2050s summers will become drier. • Sea level rise: There is a 90% probability that the sea level will rise by between +11.3cm and +40.4cm (5% and 95% probabilities) by 2050 (against the 1980–1999 baseline). It is likely that coastal flooding around the harbour will increase; this may lead to increased erosion rates and changes in deposition rates. • Storm surge height: The storm surge height is likely to increase by between 0.2mm and 2 mm by 2050. For a 20 year return period, the linear trend of the skew surge level increases 0.4mm/year with respect to the 1980-1999 baseline. There is a high likelihood that coastal flooding will increase during storms. See Annex B for further information. 4 IDENTIFICATION OF RISKS AND ADAPTATION MEASURES Overall objective: Su b-objectives: • To protect health and wellbeing of users Identify and increase resilience • To increase resilience of assets / building to climate related risks likely to performance and reduce repairing / impact on the operational maintenance / operation costs capacity of the site • To ensure environmental / sustainability compliance OBJECTIVES AND SUCCESS CRITERIA THORNEY ISLAND The critical operational functions identified for the establishment are: • Operating Station infrastructure; • Delivery of training; • Essential services/utilities (water supply, power); • Security of personnel; • Provision of Support Services (food supply, messes); • Provision of Service Family Accommodation (SFA). The wider SD/Environmental legislative and policy obligations that could impact on the establishment’s reputation are: • Minimal impact to the environmentally and ecologically sensitive Chichester Harbour and surrounding Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) areas; • Contamination avoidance; • Compliance with all legislative requirements; • Provide buildings with comfortable interior environment/temperatures. • Minimise disruption and nuisance to the local community and promote the base as a good neighbour; • Maximise opportunities for partnership working and community engagement activities; • Maximise opportunities for the use of local suppliers; • Compliance with all legislative requirements. Resource performance • Value for money; • Low maintenance costs; • Avoidance of damage costs from flooding event. RISK SCORE = L x I M H H Likelihood (L): Impact (I): L M H 3= Probable (60%) 3= Major 2= Possible (30-60%) 2= Significant Likelihood L L M 1= Remote (<30%) 1= Minor Impact 5 CLIMATE VARIABLE A: TEMPERATURE (warmer summers, warmer winters, increased likelihood of heatwaves) Risk Score (LxI) EXISTING PROCESS CLIMATE RELATED RISKS FUTURE ACTIONS Current Future MANAGEMENT & OWNER Building design (poor air ventilation and circulation, high solar gain, internal overheating) Increased risk of thermal discomfort of 3 x 1 3 x 1 Open windows, natural