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Technology Directions for the 21 St Century Volume I

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Technology Directions for the 21 St Century Volume I /, "T" / NASA Contractor Report 198478 Technology Directions for the 21 st Century Volume I Giles F. Crimi, Henry Verheggen, William Mclntosh, and Robert Botta Science Applications International Corporation McLean, Virginia May 1996 Prepared for Lewis Research Center Under Contract DAEA32-96-D4)001 National Aeronautics and Space Administration PREFACE It has been said that the only thing that is constant is change. This adage is well borne out in both the understanding of space and the pursuit of that understanding. In the last twelve months, the scientific studies of our universe, made possible by spectacularly successful flight programs such as the Hubble Space Telescope, Galileo, and Magellan, almost daily have expanded our understanding of the universe and the planets in our solar system. Here on Earth, the space business has also undergone a similar revolutionary process. In the ever complex requirement to balance the pursuit of meaningful science programs with the shrinking availability of funding, NASA has entered the era of having to do more with less. Our focus has shiftedto designing faster, cheaper, and better missions without compromising safety or scientific value. Therefore, our technology strategiesmust correspondingly change to accommodate this new approach. Technology application and systems acquisition must emphasize standardized, multi-use services and operationsconcepts,levemgcd with thoseof our industrialparmers,internationalcounterparts, and academia, as appropriate.Movement toward privatizationof space businesswillbe requiredto bettershare rewards, exchange technicalknowledge, and increaseoperationalefficiencics.These changes are no longer options,but are essentialto sustainingour economy and assuring the continued technologicalleadershipof our Nation. One common thread to the success of our flight programs has been the reliable communication of each bit of information from the spacecraftto the ultimate user. The responsibilityfor this criticaltask primarily has rested within NASA's Office of Space Communications (OSC). OSC provides standardized,multi-usecommunications, data processing, navigation,and mission operation servicesto both NASA and non-NASA flightprograms. NASA's Office of Advanced Concepts and Technology is chartered to develop and advance technology. OSC is a technology user,which adapts existingtechnology and applicationsto meet specificprogram requirements. While OSC's success has greatlybenefitedfrom the explosive growth of communications and computing technologies,thisnew paradigm of "faster-cheaper- better"willrequirean even greaterabilitytopredictwhere technologyisgoing. These reportsfocus on supportingone element of thisnew paradigm: the continuingeffortto predictand understand technology trendsto betterplan development strategies.The objectivesof thisseriesof documents are to:(1) validate,reviseor expand relevanttechnology forecasts;(2) develop applicationsstrategiesto incorporatenew technologies into our programs; and, (3) accomplish Agency goals, while stimulating and encouraging development of commercial technology sources. Volumes I and II, togetherwith a future Volume Ill,summarize several studiesrelevantto communication and data processingtechnologieswhich were selectedfor their appropriatenessto help us meet our challenges. Comments from interestedpartieswould be especiallyappreciated,and may bc directedto NASA Headquarters, Dr. Albert R. Miller,at (202) 358-4804, or to NASA Lewis Research Center, Ms. Denise S. Ponchak, at (216) 433-3465. Charles T. Force_ AssociateAd_n_51stratorfor Space ComIfiunications ACKNOWLEDGMENT This work was performed by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), Technology Applications Group, in McLean, Virginia for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This report summarizes a series of investigations of various technologies which are important to long range planning for the operational systems and capabilities for which NASA's Office of Space Communications is responsible. An earlier version of this report was published in March, 1993. This current version updates the prior material, and includes some new material for computer processing related technologies. NASA is pleased to acknowledge the following SAIC personnel who contributed to this effort: Dr. Giles Crimi (Program Manager), Mr. Henry Verheggen (Principal Investigator), Mr. William McIntosh (volume update and Technical Editor), and Dr. Robert Botta (volume update and Technical Editor.) The technical direction for this work was provided by Ms. Denise S. Ponchak, NASA Lewis Research Center, and Dr. Albert R. Miller, NASA Headquarters, Office of Space Communications. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ........................................................................................................................ i ACKNOWLEDGMENT ................................................................................................ i i LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... v FOREWORD ................................................................................................................... vi CHAPTER 1 MOORE'S LAW AND SEMICONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY TRENDS ................................................................................................. 1-1 SUMMARY .............................................................................................................. 1-1 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 1-1 2. LONG-RANGE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS ................................................. 1-1 2 1 ANALYSIS OF TRENDS ............................................................................. 1-1 2 2 FUTURE APPLICATIONS ........................................................................... 1-5 2.3 EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES ..................................................................... 1-6 3. RESULTS ......................................................................................................... 1-9 3.1 IMPACT OF MOORE' S LAW AND SEMICONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY ON NASA ................................................................................................. 1-9 3.2 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP ......................................................................... 1-10 3.3 FEASIBILITY AND RISK ............................................................................ 1-11 CHAPTER 2 COMPUTING TECHNOLOGY TRENDS ......................................... 2-1 SUMMARY .............................................................................................................. 2-1 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 2-1 2. LONG-RANGE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS ................................................. 2-2 2.1 ANALYSIS OF TRENDS ............................................................................. 2-2 2.2 FUTURE APPLICATIONS ........................................................................... 2-7 2.3 EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES ..................................................................... 2-9 3. RESULTS ......................................................................................................... 2-9 3.1 IMPACT OF COMPUTING TECHNOLOGY ON NASA ................................. 2-9 3.2 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP ......................................................................... 2-12 3.3 FEASIBILITY AND RISK ............................................................................ 2-12 iii TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) CHAPTER 3 STORAGE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS .............................................. 3-1 SUMMARY .............................................................................................................. 3-1 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 3-1 2. LONG-RANGE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS ................................................. 3-2 2.1 ANALYSIS OF TRENDS ............................................................................. 3-2 2.2 FUTURE APPLICATIONS ........................................................................... 3-5 2.3 EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES ..................................................................... 3-5 3. RESULTS ......................................................................................................... 3-8 3.1 IMPACT OF STORAGE TECHNOLOGY ON NASA ..................................... 3-8 3.2 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP ......................................................................... 3-9 3.3 FEASIBILITY AND RISK ............................................................................ 3-9 CHAPTER 4 PHOTONICS TECHNOLOGY TRENDS .......................................... 4-1 SUMMARY .............................................................................................................. 4-1 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 4-1 2. LONG-RANGE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS ................................................. 4-2 2.1 ANALYSIS OF TRENDS ............................................................................. 4-2 2.2 FUTURE APPLICATIONS ........................................................................... 4-4 2.3 EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES ..................................................................... 4-5 3. RESULTS ........................................................................................................
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