Document of The WorldBank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized

Report No. 1930b-COM

FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE Public Disclosure Authorized

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT'

FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

Public Disclosure Authorized August 1, 1978

Public Disclosure Authorized Highways Projects Division Eastern Africa Regional Office

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CU RENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit = (CF) US$0.00417 = CF 1 US$1.00 = CF 24

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES

1 meter (m) = 3.28 feet (ft) 1 kilometer (km) = 0.62 miles (mi) 1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres (ac) 1 metric ton (ton) 2 = 2,204 pounds (lb) I square kilometer (kh ) = 0.386 square miles (sq mi)

GLOSSjARYOF ABBREVIATIONS

AfDF - African Development Fund BCEOM - Bureau Central pour les Equipements d'Outre-Mer DEIT - Directorate of Equipment and Improvement of Territory EDF - European Development Fund FIDES - Fonds d'Investissements pour le Developpement Economique et Social MEITQL - Ministry of Equipment, Improvement of Territory and Quality of Life MFEP - Ministry of Finance, Economy and Planning OPEC - Organization of P'etroleumExporting Countries PPF - Project Preparation Facility SECMO - Societe d'Etudes de Construction de Maisons et Ouvrages vpd - vehicles per day

FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS

FISCAL YEAR

January 1 - December 31 FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS- FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

1. THE TRANSPORT SECTOR ...... * ...... 1

A. Geographic and Economic Setting and Its Effect on Transport ...... I B. The Transport System ...... 2 C. Transport Policy and Coordination ...oo...... 3 D. Past Bank Group Involvement ...... I...... 4

2. THE HIGHWAY SUBSECTOR ...... 5

A. The Network ...... 5 B. Traffic Growth and Characteristics ...... 5 C. Administration ...... 6. D. T*rainitng ...... a...... 7 E. Planning ...... 17 F. Financing ...... 17 G . Enginee ring ...... 0...... ,.... 8 H. Construction ...... 9 I. Road Maintenance dProcur.m..t ...... 29.....

3. THE PDsuEments.. THE PROJECT .****...... 17

A. ObjectivesV...... 17 B.D escription...... 17 C. EstimatesCost ... o.....n...... 0... 22 D. Financing .... o ...... 24 E. I mpl ementationand Pro curement ...... 26 F. Disbursements ...... 28 G. Ecology ... oo...... 28

4. EC EVALUATIONONOMIC ...... 3...... 78

A. Mainpe.r..edy Benefits ...idaJohnse (Econo...... mist), 38 B. Ni oumakeleRoad ConstructionS3orri8Hallgrimsson (Engineer, C8 C. Ro adImprovement and Maintenance ...... 40 D. Studies ...... 41, E. Risks ... o.o...... , 42

5. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 47 ,

This report was prepared by Frida Johansen (Economist), Ed1uard Fellinghauer (Engineer), Paula Gannon (Economist) and Snorri Hallgrimsson (Engineer, Con- sultant) following an appraisal mission to Comoros in October 1977. The report was edited by Patricia Brereton.

This documenthu a restricteddistribution and maybe usedby recipientsonly in the performance of their officialdutis. Its contentsmay not otherwisebe disclosedwithout World Bank authorization. - ii -

TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page No.

ANNEXES

2.1 Road Network, 1977 12 2.2 Motor Vehicle Statistics, 1964-75 13 2.3 Gasoline Consumption, 196,7-75 14 2.4 Vehicle Operating Costs and Average Fares 15 2.5 Organization of Public Works Administration 16

3.1 Design Standards - Nioumakele Road 29 3.2 Proposed Road Improvement Unit and Maintenance Units for Paved Roads 30 3.3 Equipment to be Procured under the Project 31 3.4 Local Personnel to be Assigned to Road Improvement and Maintenance Program 32 3.5 Implementation Schedule 34 3.6 Progress Reporting System 35 3.7 Estimated Schedule of Disbursement 37

4.1 Economic Evaluation - Nioumakele Road Construction 43 4.2 Economic Evaluation - Improvement Unit 45 4.3 Economic Evaluation - Resealing and Patching Units 46

APPENDIX

I. Related Documents and Data,Available in Project File 49

MAPS

Comoro Islands: First Highway Project - (IBRD 13414) : First Highway Project - Moheli (IBRD 13415) FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS

FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

1. THE TRANSPORT SECTOR

A. Geographic and Economic Setting and Its Effect on Transport

Geography

1.01 The Comoro archipelago, located at the northern end of the , consists of four islands about 100 to 300 km from one another (Map-IBRD 13414, insert). The Republic of the Comoros comprises three of th se islands, , Anjouan and Mohieli, with a land area of 1,862 km ; the fourth island, , remains under French rule. The islands are characterized by a rugged topography of volcanic origin, with laterite soils that support lush vegetation. The climate is marine tropical with occasional cyclones and rainfall as intense as 400 mm per month during the six-month rainy season.

Population

1.02 The Republic's pop2lation is estimated at 370,000 in 1977, with about 400 inhabitants per km of cultivable land. Owing to the high popula- tion growth rate (3.7% p.a.) and the return in 1977 of about 18,000 Comorians from , the islands of Anjouan and, to a lesser extent, Grande Comore are becoming overpopulated.

Economy

1.03 The Comoros' economic development is limited and primarily dependent on agriculture. Food production is insufficient for Local needs, but revenues from export crops such as ylang-ylang, copra, and cloves partially finance supplementary food imports. Distillation of ylang-ylang into perfume essences is virtually the only "industrial" activity. It is estimated that agriculture contributes about 38% to GDP, a further 40% is contributed by the services sector, and other sectors contribute the remaining 20%. In 1976 GNP per capita was about US$150, among the lowest in East Africa.

1.04 At the Comoros' independence in 1975, , the principal source of financial and technical assistance, suspended such aid and most of the French community departed, causing an immediate adverse impact on the economy. Tentative estimates indicate that GDP reached a peak of US$71 million in 1974, having grown at 6 to 7% p.a. in real terms over the previous 5 years, but fell 13% in 1975 and 9% in 1976. Following independence, the new state made drastic cutbacks on most activities, and total public expenditures were halved. Worldwide appeals for help brought the assistance of about US$20 million in suppliers' credits in 1976, mostly from Arab sources and China. -2-

But in 1977, with the almost total exhaustionof all financial assistance and the commitment of nearly all Treasury reserves, the budgetary situationbecame critical. Because of the limits of local resources,the Government had to reduce its expendituresfurther:, particularly administrative expenses that had been absorbingmost of the budget. The Comoros' budgetary problems are now critical and will sharply restrict any Government contributionto development projects.

Effects on Transport

1.05 The Comoros' geographic position makes transport difficult and ex- pensive. Its internationaltrade and communicationsare constrainedby long distances to foreign markets and by the lack of a natural deepwater harbor for oceangoing vessels, the latter necessitatingthe use of "neighboring" countries' ports for transshipments,or loading/unloadingships offshore. As a result, higher-valueimports and exports are carried by air. As part of an archipelago,each island requires port and airport facilities,but even though one island has internationalstandard facilities,other islands remain dependent on transshipments. Coastal shipping is impeded by the rocky coast- line with only a few beaches. Intra-islandtransport is hampered by the islands' rugged topography,steep gradients, clayish soils and heavy rains, which make road constructionexpensive. All transport, but sea traffic in particular,is often disrupted by cyclones during the rainy season.

B. The Transport System

1.06 The transport infrastrUcturein the Comoros comprises 2 ports, 4 airports, and about 700 km of roads, but no railway system or navigable rivers.

Ports and Sea Transport

1.07 The Comoros have two ports, which can accommodate only small oceangoing vessels. , on the island of Anjouan, is the main port of the Comoros. Its jetty (250 m long by 8 m wide) has a low tide capacity to accommodatesimultaneously two 500-ton coasters and various dhows. The port of Moroni on Grande Comore has a quay (150 m long by 15 m wide) which can accommodatecoasters of up to 400 tons. At both ports, larger vessels must anchor offshore for loading and unloading, which is possible in calm weather only. Moheli has no port, but the beach at permits the handling of small boats and landing craft tankers during low tide.

1.08 Larger ships only occasionallycall at the Comoros, but 10 to 12 coasters of 300-400 tons capacity operate regularly. In addition, 50-60 dhows of 5-30 tons capacity operate for lighterageand inter-islandtraffic. Government owns three landing craft tankers and a number of dhows, and has a minority participationin the Societe Comorienne de Navigation, a shipping company with regular services to La Reunion, Mombasa in Kenya and Majunga - 3 -

in Madagascar. The Compagnie Malgache de Cabotage also ensures shipments between Majunga and the Comoros.

1.09 The annual volume of international sea freight is about 50,000 tons of imports and 10,000 tons of exports, about 25,000 tons of which are transshipped at Majunga. Inter-island transport by boat annually comprises about 6,000 tons of freight but only about 3,000 passengers (compared to about 17,000 passengers by aircraft), since all sea transport is done by unscheduled cargo vessels. Government has recently acquired a landing craft tanker with facilities for 400 passengers, and thereby inter-island passenger travel by sea is expected to increase.

Airports and Civil Aviation

1.10 The four airports provide adequate service. Grande Comore has two airports: the older one can accommodate Boeing 737s, has satisfactory terminal buildings, and is used mainly for domestic flights. The new inter- national airport, constructed in 1974/75 with financing by the French ad- ministration, handles international flights, although airport lighting and navigational aids are still lacking, and the runway needs considerable repair because of faulty construction. When these problems are solved, the older airport will be closed. Anjouan has one airport that can handle Boeing 737s, while that of Moheli is somewhat smaller and without terminal facilities; both runways need resurfacing.

1.11 Tanzania Airways operates scheduled flights with 737s between the Comoros and Dar es Salaam. Air Comores, a fully Government-owned company since Air France withdrew in 1976, also operates some international flights but mainly serves inter-island needs. Air Comores owns three DC4s and plans to acquire a Boeing 737. In addition, an aeroclub at Moroni provides charter flights.

1.12 During 1976, 1,745 landings disembarked about 22,000 passengers and 760 tons of freight, more than half at Grande Comore. Of this, less than 20% was international traffic, which decreased following the French administration's departure.

Roads and Road Traffic

1.13 Details of the road subsector are given in Chapter 2.

C. Transport Policy and Coordination

1.14 The Ministry of Finance, Economy and Planning (MFEP) through its Directorate of Planning is responsible, inter alia, for national trans- port policy, planning and coordination. The Government prepared a five- year investment plan for the years 1978-82 in which improvement of transport -4- infrastructure and services is given high priority. One objective is the construction of a deepwater berth at Anjouan's port of Mutsamudu to accom- modate oceangoing vessels and thereby to eventually facilitate the country's foreign trade and lessen its dependence on Madagascar; the economic viability, however, seems marginal and is being reviewed. Equal priority is given to upgrading the road network, to the extent possible, simultaneously on all three islands, in order to help rural development and agricultural production. Other aims comprise the construction of a small port on Moheli, completion of the international airport and improvement of domestic airfields. Rather than prepare a transport development program, Government stresses the need to prepare specific projects suitable for foreign financial assistance, which is crucial if it is to achieve its development objectives in the near future. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has agreed to finance techni- cal assistance for project preparation, and further, has proposed arranging a meeting of aid agencies to discuss project financing. The new Government of the Comoros, which was instatecl in May 1978, is in the process of reviewing this plan and, while some modifications are expected, Government has already reaffirmed that improvement of the transport infrastructure is a high priority for the country.

1.15 Since transport on the islands is restricted to roads, modal coor- dination is not important and necessary only for inter-island traffic carried by sea and air. Government adequately handles this need through its partici- pation in the related transport companies, and its decisions on infrastructure development. Government does not, however, intend to monopolize transport services and would welcome foreign and local capital investment in the sector.

D. Past Bank Group Involvement

1.16 The Comoros became a Bank member in December 1976 and joined the Association in December 1977. The Bank sent a mission to survey the economy in December 1976, and during subsequent discussions with Government, it became clear that agriculture and improvement of the transport infrastructure were crucial to the country's development. Agricultural missions have since been sent from the Regional Mission in Eastern Africa (RMEA), and as a result one export crop improvement project is being prepared and a rural development project has been identified.

1.17 A transport sector mission visited the country in March 1977 and identified this road construction project. UNDP was approached and agreed to finance the required detailed engineering study. Thereafter, and in view of cofinancing possibilities, the project's scope was expanded during appraisal in October 1977, and US$80,000 were made available under the Project Prepara- tion Facility (PPF) to further detail the proposed new components. Appendix I gives a list of documents and available data relating to the project.

1.18 This will be the first Bank Group project in the country. -5-

2. THE HIGHWAY SUBSECTOR

A. The Network

2.01 The road network comprises about 340 km of paved roads, 375 km of mainly dry-weather earth roads and a number of tracks (Annex 2.1). Although there is as yet no road classification system, Government has agreed to introduce such a system before the end of 1978. The network is inadequate, and large portions of the country are inaccessible during the rainy season. Because of the rugged terrain, gradients of more than 10 degrees, having more than 10 curves per kin, are common on many roads. Roadway widths, including shoulders, are less than 7 m, which is adequate for the low traffic volumes. Road conditions, particularly those of earth roads,2 are poor, due to lack of proper maintenance. Road density is about 380 in/km , which is high compared to other African countries.

B. Traffic Growth and Characteristics

2.02 It is estimated that in 1977, the vehicle fleet consisted of about 1,650 vehicles, 90% of which were small and medium-size cars and some 10% trucks, mainly of the 3.5-5.0 ton range. There are no buses. Vehicle weight and dimension regulations are in line with French regulations, the maximum permissible axle load being 13 tons. Although there is no enforcement agency, the largest trucks are of the 5 ton range and are not overloaded. Since the present vehicle weight regulations are not suited to conditions prevailing in the country, Government agreed to take the measures necessary to limit the maximum permissible axle load to 8 tons before the end of 1978. About 83% of the fleet is used on Grande Comore (reflecting the presence of the central Government), 15% on Anjouanand only 2% (about 30 vehicles) on Moheli. Th fleet has increased by about 11% p.a. since 1970 (Annex 2.2); similarly, gasoline consumption increased by about 11% p.a. during 1967-73 (Annex 2.3). Overall, there is one vehicle for every 200 persons. Maximum traffic volume is about 250 vehicles per day (vpd) on the paved roads near Moroni and about 200 vpd on the main road sections on Anjouan. Traffic counts are made only sporadically for certain roads during preinvestment studies; however, Govern- ment agreed to take annual traffic counts on roads classified as "major," starting in 1979. 2.03 Prior to the Government reorganization in mid-1977, the Ministry of Public Works and Energy was responsible for annual vehicle licensing and for the quarterly inspection of vehicles for hire, to determine their road- worthiness. The vehicle registration system was discontinued at the coun- try s independence, but Government has agreed to reestablish such a system by December 31, 1979, under the responsibility of the newly created Ministry for Equipment, Improvement of Territory and Quality of Life (NEITQL, para. 2.05). - 6 -

Government establishes passenger and small load rates for the collective taxis that operate in the main cities and on the all-weather rural roads; official fares are strictly adhered to. Fares take road conditions into account, and when roads are upgraded fares are reduced to ensure that operating cost reductions are passed on to passengers (Annex 2.4). There are no official truck haulage rates, since most trucks are privately or Government-owned.

C. Administration

2.04 For two years after independence in 1975, Government maintained the former French administrative institutions, although with a reduced tech- nical staff since French expatriates were recalled. Road administration was then the responsibility of the Directorate of Public Works, under the Ministry of Public Works and Energy, with one Subdivision on each island. In mid-1977 Government abolished all ministries, dismissed most of its staff, and adopted a new administrative structure, emphasizing decentralization and retaining only a reduced central authority. Following the change in Government in May 1978, the country has reverted to an administrative structure similar to that in operation prior to 1977.

2.05 MEITQL is now in charge of public works. MEITQL's Directorate of Equipment and Improvement of Territory (DEIT) administers all matters relating to road infrastructure, gives technical advice to local administrations, pre- pares minor designs for civil works and buildings through its Technical Studies Division and awards and follows up on civil works contracts, including those for procurement of equipment. DEIT's Road Maintenance Division has three sub- sections, one for each of the three islands, which are in charge of road maintenance and minor construction works done by force account (Annex 2.5). The 55 local communities carry out maintenance and construction of minor rural roads with self-help. The DEIT operates one main workshop at the major town of each island.

2.06 In order to assist Government to set up an effective administrative structure for road maintenance, consultants' services were provided under the PPF to identify Government organizational requirements (paras. 1.17 and 3.10). Consultants' recommendations, which were ready in March 1978, were discussed with Government and agreement was reached on an implementation program for reorganizing the administration of road maintenance.

2.07 The Government of the Comoros is now completely dependent on its own local staff for highway-related matters and faces a severe shortage of trained and experienced staff at nearly all levels. Engineers and technicians are in short supply and only one engineer has substantial experience in civil engineer- ing. There are no mechanical engineers or economists in the country; quali- fied mechanics and equipment operators are scarce. As a result, the Comoros will depend heavily on foreign expertise in the near future. D. Training

2.08 The Comoros have no training facilities for the specialtiesrequired for road related activities. Only a few Comorians have completed technical studies in Madagascar,France and the USSR. Civil works contractorsand engineering consultantshave trained a few equipment operators,mechanics and surveyors on-the-job;however, their impact on improving skills has been rather limited. The small number of trained staff required in the various specialtiesdoes not warrant a training school. In order to help Government meet its most urgent needs, the proposed project includes technical assistance for on-the-jobtraining of local staff (para. 3.11), and fellowships for essential training of higher level staff (para. 3.13). Technical assistance (Chief of Workshops and mechanics),will also be provided by the Kuwait Fund (para. 2.24).

E. Planning

2.09 Government'splan for the road subsector gives priority to the con- struction of all-weatherroads on each of the islands. A development program was issued in February 1978, and feasibilityand preliminary engineering studies for a number of the planned road improvementswere completedunder the French administration.1/ Two of these roads are included in the proposed project which will finance the constructionto paved standards of part of the Nioumakele circular road on Anjouan island (para. 3.03) and studies to prepare for constructionof part of the Moheli circular road (paLra.3.14).

F. Financing

2.10 Prior to independence,the major part of expenditureson transport infrastructure was financed by foreign sources, mainly France and the European Development Fund (EDF). France's Fonds d'Investissementspour le Developpement Economique et Social (FIDES) was the main contributor,from 1970 to 1974 com- mitting CF 528 million (about US$2.2 million) for new road construction. The former Ministry of Public Works and Energy's local budget provided an annual average of CF 12 million (about US$50,000 equivalent) for new road construc- tion, and CF 40 million (about US$163,000equivalent) for maintenance over the period. Local funds were essentiallyrevenues from the tax on gasoline,which were allocated to a Road Fund earmarked for road improvement.

1/ On Grande Comore: Itsikoudi-Bandamagi(30 km); Dembeni-Nioumadzaha (20 km); M'Vouni-La Convalescence(16 km). On Anjouan: Moya-M'Remani (17 km); Nioumakele circular road (30 km). On Moheli: Fomboni-- (25 km). -8-

2.11 Following independence,the cessation of French aid interrupted three road constructionprojects. In 1976, however, the Kuwait Fund provided CF 1,300 million (about US$5.3 million) to complete these works and in 1977 financed an additional CF 96 million (about US$0.4 million) for road mainte- nance equipment. Also, in 1977, EDF committed CF 230 million (almost US$1 million) for procurement of equipment for a road improvement unit. Local funds for roads, however, have fallen sharply due to the reduced Government income during the past two years. In 1977 the Road Fund was abolished and no local allocationwas made for new investments. The road maintenance budget was considerablyreduced, partly reflecting the reduction in staff positions under the new administrativestructure and partly reflecting the cut in staff salaries to half their previous levels. The last quarterly budget of 1977 for road maintenance and administrationwas about CF 2.2 million (about US$9,000) at the central level and an unidentifiedpart of CF 16.5 million (about US$67,000), the total budget for the local administrations.

2.12 Financial resources of the Governmentare expected to remain inade- quate for the near future, and the country will continue to depend on foreign financing for new constructionand highway maintenance. Nevertheless,Govern- ment has agreed to re-establishthe Road Fund for road maintenance purposes by the end of 1978 in order to ensure, following project completion,adequate financing from domestic resources of its road improvement and maintenance program. The proposed project will finance the foreign and part of the local cost of building up the road maintenance capacity over a three-yearperiod (para. 3.07) to preserve investmentsuntil Government is able to finance the road maintenance budget locally.

G. Engineering

2.13 The DEIT's Study Section, staffed with one engineer, two topographers and three draftsmen,undertakes minor designs. Feasibilityand engineering studies of larger projects are beyond the Study Section's capacity and will continue to be done by consultants. There are no domestic consultantfirms; one foreign consultancy firm, Societe d'Etudes de Constructionde Maisons et Ouvrages (SECMO, France), is already establishedin the Comoros, and another, Bureau Central pour les Equipements d'Outre-Mer(BCEOM, France), is consider- ing opening an office in Moroni if potential work justifies it.

2.14 Having no soils laboratory,Government relies on consultantsfor soil tests for studies and supervisionof constructionworks. Governmenthas building facilities for a laboratorybut lacks the equipment and technical staff to carry out tests. The proposed project will assist Government in establishing its own soils laboratory through financing of equipment (para. 3.09). Government has agreed to obtain, by January 1, 1979, technical assis- tance from bilateral sources for a qualified and experienced soils engineer to head the soils laboratory and to train local staff. 2.15 Engineering standards follow French design praLcticesand are ade- quate for the traffic levels. Alignments of improved roads generally follow existing tracks to take advantage of their earthworks ariddrainage structures. The latter consist of concrete pipes and box culverts; for the more important crossings,reinforced concrete bridges are used, with spans ranging from 4 to 7 m. Bituminous pavements consist of a double bituminous surface treatment on a 10-15 cm granular base; pavement widths are adequate, ranging from 3.5 m on older roads to 5.0 m on newer roads. Appropriate design standards for the various road classificationshave been drawn up by consualtantsunder the PPF. These standardswill be reviewed and agreed with Govermnent during project implementation.

H. Construction

2.16 Despite the rather low standards, road constructionis expensive (US$150,000-200,000per km of paved road) for two main reasons. First, the difficult terrain and heavy earthworks, adverse soil co,nditionsand torrential rains necessitate bituminous pavements in most places to prevent washing away of the road; second, mobilization costs are high in relation to the small scale of works. The foreign exchange component in road constructionis high since equipment and most materials and staff, except for unskilled labor, are imported.

2.17 Major constructionworks are carried out by fEoreigncontractors; two contractors,with headquartersin Madagascar and France, are presently estab- lished in the Comoros. Equipment can be imported duty-free on a temporary basis, although with considerabledelivery time; there are no restrictionson remittancesabroad by contractors. Constructionsupervision is carried out by consultantsbut is the administrativeresponsibility of DEIT. Government has no capacity for major works, but the EDF is financing equipment for a road improvementunit to undertake upgrading of tracks to all-weather standards. The proposed project will provide for financing of the unit's operating costs (spare parts, imported fuel and materials) and technical assistance over a three-year period to ensure the unit's efficient operation (para. 3.06).

2.18 There is no domestic road contractor or prospects for one in the near future, due to lack of capital and skilled staff. Promotion of domestic contractorswould therefore be premature under this project but should be consideredunder a next highway project. The local communitiescarry out minor road improvementsusing labor-intensivetechniques.

I. Road Maintenance

2.19 As already mentioned (para. 2.05), the Road Maintenance Section of DEIT is responsible for overall road maintenance activities,equipment procure- ment and repair of equipment at the three regional workshops, and assisting the local communitieswith minor road improvements,mainly track upgrading. - 10 -

2.20 Government lacks the capacity to identify equipment and spare part needs, staffing and training requirements; no road inventory has been made. The financial requirements and a program for annual maintenance operations have not been estimated by Government, partly because funds would not be available anyway. Equipment-intensive maintenance is virtually nonexistent since Government's equipment pool, limited to a few dump trucks, two patching trucks, rollers and some minor equipment, does not allow the formation of mechanized brigades. As a resuLt, maintenance is mainly done by labor- intensive methods. Villagers are recruited and supplied with shovels, picks and wheelbarrows when available, generally to patch uneven or rocky surfaces and to clear culverts and drains,. Recently, local youth organizations have also improved some tracks. These efforts, however, make no lasting improve- ment, given the lack of adequate construction techniques to withstand the heavy rains on the steep slopes.

2.21 Equipment repair facilities are also inadequate. The main work- shops at each island's major town, Moroni, Mutsamudu and Fomboni, lack essen- tial equipment and tools and need improvement of buildings. Some minor repair facilities do exist at the regional centers, but are ill-equipped and can do only small works. Spare parts are depleted, and equipment remains idle even when only minor repairs are needed. In addition, there are too few mechanics, especially in Mutsamudu and Fomboni, and equipment operators are also scarce.

2.22 As a result, roads are in poor condition. Earth roads and tracks often become impassable during the rainy season. Bituminous paved roads are still in acceptable driving condition because of their fairly recent construction. Even so, many sections of the paved roads have potholes and broken edges and show signs of pavement fatigue. Severe road deterioration is found on a 700 m section of the only road connecting western Anjouan with the island's only harbor at Mutsamudu. As a result of wave action and inadequate construction standards, the retaining walls of this coastal road have partially collapsed and part of the road has been washed away. Present traffic is about 200 vpd. If not repaired, the road will be completely washed away and one-third of Anjouan's population cut off; the proposed project will assist in the repair of this road section (para. 3.05).

2.23 The appraisal mission tentatively estimated that within the next three years more than 50% of the paved roads (190 km) will require resurfac- ing and partial widening of the pavement width to 5 m and most of the tracks (374 km) will need to be upgradecl to all-weather gravel or, if necessary, bitumen standards. Routine maintenance also needs strengthening to avoid further deterioration of the road network.

2.24 In order to improve the present situation, the Kuwait Fund and EDF have already made commitments for about US$1.4 million for equipment (para. 2.11). Government has approached the Kuwait Fund for further assis- tance to finance: three master mechanics to be attached to the regional workshops in Moroni, Mutsamudu and Fomboni (para. 3.08) for three years each; one expatriate mechanic for the road improvement unit for 18 months; and road - 11 - maintenanceequipment and hand tools to strengthenthe labor-intensiveroad maintenanceoperations carried out by the local communities. The EDF has provided trucks for the local communitiesand equipmentwhich will be used primarily for the creation of a road improvementunit. Further assistance will be offered under the proposed project, which will aid Governmentin identifyingand implementinga three-yearroad maintenanceand improvement program (para. 3.06). - 12 -

FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS ANNEX 2.1

FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

Road Network, 1977 (km)

1. GRANDE COMORE: 409

Paved roads Maintained -earthroads and tracks

Moroni- 38 Itsikoudi-Bandamagi 30 Mitsaniouli-M'Beni 26 Dembeni-Nioumadzaha 20 M'Beni- 24 Link 6 Bahani-Moroni 11 M'Vouni-La Convalescence 16 Moroni-Foumboni 48 Moroni-Kabani 10 Foumboni-Bandamagi 11 Mitsamiouli-Moibadjou 6 Moroni-M'Vouni 7 Mitsoudje-Mioumbadjou 14 Moroni-Kabani 12 Link 4 Moroni-Itzandra 4 Various links to villages N'Tsaoueni-Maoueni 15 along main roads 93 199 M'Kazi Link 2 Ikoni Link 6 Link 6 21.0

2. ANJOUAN: 187

Paved roads, Maintained earth roads and tracks

Mutsamudu-- 30 Moya-M'Remani 17 Domoni-M'Remani 16 Dindi-Koni Djodjo 10 Mutsamudu-Sima 20 Nioumakele ring road 30 Sima-Pomoni 21 Domoni-Nioumak6le 14 Sima- 6 Bandamagi- 6 Dindi Link 6 Other links 10 87 Domoni-Ajaho 1 100

3. MOHELI: 118

Paved roads Maintained earth roads and tracks

Fomboni-Sambia 17 Fomboni-Hoani 10 Sambia- 13 30 Hoani-Miringoni 15 Miringoni-Nioumachoua 20 -Itsamia 12 Kangani-Boundouni 8 Various links 23 88

TOTAL Paved 34CI Maintained earth roads and tracks 374

Source: Government, Moroni, 1977.

August 1978 FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

Motor Vehicle Statistics, 1964-75

Grande Comore Anjouan Moheli Total Cars & Light Cars & Light Cars & Light Cars & Light Year pick-ups trucks Total pick-ups trucks Total pick-ups trucks Total pick-ups trucks Total

New Vehicle Registrations

1964 132 45 7 184 1965 99 29 3 131 1966 153 35 4 192 1967 144 31 6 181 1968 110 33 1 144 1969 150 28 2 180 1970 185 16 201 30 8 38 1 - 1 216 24 240 1971 249 32 281 36 5 41 2 1 3 287 38 325 1972 181 41 222 13 6 19 3 1 4 197 48 245 1973 274 37 311 49 5 54 6 - 6 329 42 371 1974 237 17 254 51 4 55 9 1 10 297 22 319 1975 211 24 235 46 11 57 6 - 6 263 35 298

Estimated Fleet-/

1970 758 165 14 937 1971 886 171 13 1,070 1972 964 159 11 1,134 1973 1,165 180 16 1,361 1974 1,269 207 24 1,500 1975 1,303 226 29 1,558

Average growth % p.a. 11 6.5 15 11 Z

1/ Assuming 5 years average vehicle life. Source: Government, 1977.

August 1978 - 14 - ANNEX 2.3

FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS

FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

Gasoline ConsUmption, 1967-75

Year Tons

1967 2,057 1968 2,394 1969 2,551 1970 2,744 1971 3,125 1972 3,716 1973 3,891 1974 3,272 1975 3,354

1967-75 Increase 11% p.a.

Source: Customs Documents and mission estimate, 1977.

August 1978 - 15 - ANNEX 2.4

FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS

FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

VehicLe Operating Costs and Average Fares (CF/km at 1977 prices)

Medium-size car Small Car and pick-up) 3.5 ton truck Bitumen Earth Bitumen Earth Bitumen Earth

Economic Costs

Gasoline 3.84 5.58 6.20 8.10 13.64 15.50 Lubricants 0.38 0.56 0.62 0.81 2.73 3.10 Tires 1.36 2.76 2.66 6.65 4.85 14.56 Depreciation 9.30 18.60 11.25 22.50 33.20 66.40 Repairs 4.50 8.60 5.00 9.00 8.60 17.20

19.38 36.14 25.73 47.06 63.02 116.76

Financial Costs

Gasoline 5.57 8.10 9.00 11.75 19.80 22.50 Lubricants 0.56 0.81 0.90 1.18 3.96 4.50 Tires 1.87 3.80 3.66 9.14 6.67 20.02 Depreciation 13.30 26.60 16.09 32.18 43.82 87.65 Repairs 5.85 11.20 6.50 11.70 11.18 22.36 License 1.00 2.00 0.15 0.30 0.30 0.60 Municipal tax 0.03 0.06 0.03 0.06 0.03 0.06 Benefits 3.33 6.25 4.68 8.72 10.00 18.66

31.51 58.82 41.01 75.03 95.76 176.35

Average Fares

1 passenger or 20 kg (in cities only) 3.05 5.61 n.a.

Source: Mission estimate, 1977

August 1976 FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS

FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

Organization of Public Works Administration

Directorate of Equip..ent and Improve- ment of Territor

Maintenance| ,Technical Stde Finaince and Ac ministration ||Road

Grande Comore Anjouan Moheli Sub-section Sub-section Sub-section

U' - 17 -

3. THE PROJECT

A. Objectives

3.01 The projectwill help define and strengthenthe institutions responsiblefor the road network; establishand implementa three-yearroad improvementand maintenanceprogram; and expand the main road network. In addition,the projectwill finance preparationof a subsequenthighway project and an integratedrural developmentproject.

B. Description

3.02 The project comprises:

(a) constructionand related supervisionof 20.4 km of road in the Nioumakelearea of Anjouan island;

(b) road improvement,including urgent repairs of 700 m of a main road on Anjouan, and establishmentand operation of a road improvementunit to improve some 120 km of tracks to all-weatherstandards;

(c) improvementof road maintenance,compriLsing establishment and operationof two patching units and one resealingunit;

(d) improvementof mechanicalworkshops, including repairs to existing buildingsand procurementof workshop equipment and tools;

(e) soils laboratoryequipment;

(f) technicalassistance to improve highwaymaintenance including identificationof equipment,staff and training requirements; settingup of the appropriateadministrative structure; establi- shing and implementinga road improvementand maintenance program; and on-the-jobtraining of local staff;

(g) fellowships,to be identifiedby (f) above; and

(h) studies

(i) detailed engineeringof the Fomboni-Hoani-Miringoni road (25 km),

(ii) feasibilitystudy, and if justified,detailed engineering of the Miringoni-Nioumachouaroad (20 km), and

(iii) rural developmentpreinvestment study for the Nioumakele area. - 18 -

(a) Road Constructionand Supervision

3.03 The proposed project provides for the constructionto paved stand- ards, and related supervision,of 20.4 km of the Nioumakele circular road on the island of Anjouan, including: 15.7 km of main road, -M'Remani- M'Ramani, with a 6 m formation width and 5 m bituminouspavement course; and 4.7 km of access roads (2.5 km from Antsahe to , and 2.2 km from Antsahe to Niambamoro)with a 4.5 m formation width and 3.5 m bituminous pavement course. Detailed engineeringand bidding documents for constructionare being prepared by consultants (SECMO). UNDP is financing the study with the Bank as executing agency. Design standards (Annex 3.1) are appropriate for the traffic forecast over the lifetime of the road.

3.04 The Nioumakele region is one of the country's most densely popu- lated areas (about 70,000 persons) and has agriculturalpotential. About 24,000 of its inhabitantsare now served by only a track in very poor condi- tion, having gradients often civer15% and becoming impassableduring the rainy season. Traffic volume, now about 30 vpd in the dry season, is expected to increase to 100 vpd after construction. The new alignment will follow the existing track closely, with the necessary horizontal and vertical improve- ments. The topographyof this area is very rugged, the ground slopes being as steep as 30 degrees to 40 degrees. Surface soils vary between those with considerableplasticity in the flatter sections and rock, lava and occasional basaltic formations in the steeper areas. Since rains are heavy, with yearly averages of 2.5 m on the plateau and 1.5 m nearing sea level, paving is con- sidered necessary to prevent washouts. The location of the proposed road construction is shown on Map IBRD 13414.

(b) Road Improvement

3.05 A 700 m stretch of the coastal road near Mutsamudu required urgent repairs (para. 2.22), namely: (i) an increase in the height and repair of the the existing retaining wall along a section of about 500 m; (ii) new construc- tion of about 200 m of retainingwall, and (iii) reconstructionof about 150 m in length of the washed away sections of the road formation and pavement. These works, which were recent;Lycompleted (para. 3.22), would be financed under the proposed Credit.

3.06 To allow year-roundaccess to areas now cut off during the rainy season, the project will provide for the improvementof about 120 km of tracks to all-weather standardson the three islands over a three-yearperiod (1979-81). A road improvementunit with equipment financed by the EDF (para. 2.24) will be created to do the following: improvementof drainage through constructionof culverts, small bridges and ditches; earth works to improve alignments;and the spreading of a 15 cm gravel layer. This unit is suffi- cient for the required road improvementson all three islands; its equipment composition is given in Annex 3.2. The proposed project will provide oper- ating expendituresfor spare parts, fuel and imported materials over the project period, and technical assistancefor the operation of the unit (para. 3.11). A list of roads to be improved will be determinedby consultantsunder the project's technical assistancecomponent (para. 3.10) on the basis of a - 19 -

detailed inventory of the road network and Government's;development plans; the list will be agreed with Government during project implementation.

(c) Road Maintenance

3.07 To help Government improve routine and periodic maintenance of the country's paved road network, the project includes the creation and operation of two patching units and one resealing unit. This covers: procurement of equipment, financing of operating expenditures for spare parts, fuel and materials for these units over a three-year period (1979-81); provision of * a stock of spare parts for the remainder of Government's equipment, both existing and new equipment to be procured with Kuwait Fund and EDF assistance; and technical assistance for the operation of the units (para. 3.11). The patching units will seal potholes and repair pavement edges; the resealing unit will carry out periodic resealing and partial widening of the pavement course to 5 m as required. It is expected that over the three-year program, the resealing unit will cover about 190 km and patching operations will be annually carried out on 250 km of paved roads. All otlnermaintenance opera- tions, both for paved and earth roads, will be carried out by labor-intensive methods, with the help of technical assistance provided under the project and by the Kuwait Fund. Equipment for this purpose is being provided by the Kuwait Fund and EDF; operating costs will be financed by Government. The composition of the resealing and patching units and the list of equipment to be procured under the project are shown in Annexes 3.2 and 3.3.

(d) Workshops

3.08 The workshop buildings and offices of the three central workshops at Moroni, Mutsamudu and Fomboni (para. 2.21) will be improved under the project to allow efficient repair and maintenance of all road equipment. The project will also provide for the required workshop equipment and tools, and technical assistance for the workshop organization and operation (para. 3.11) to complement that provided by the Kuwait Fund (para. 2.24). A detailed list of necessary workshop equipment and tools will be determined by consul- tants employed under the project's technical assistance component and agreed with Government during project implementation.

(e) Soils Laboratory Equipment

3.09 A soils laboratory will be established in Mcroni to carry out soils and materials tests required for the road improvement and maintenance program, road construction by contractors, and engineering studies. The project pro- vides Government with financing for the soils laboratory equipment needed for the work.

(f) Technical Assistance

3.10 Consultants BCEOM (France) financed under the PPF have specified details of the proposed components listed above from (b) to (g) (para. 3.02). - 20 -

Three specialists were employed for up to three months each: a highways engi- neer to define a road improvement and maintenance program; an organization ex- pert to review and make proposals for the roads organization; and a mechanical engineer to define equipment and spare part requirements and workshop needs in addition to preparing bidding documents for items to be procured under the project. They have also evaluated local staff, technical assistance and training needs.

3.11 Based on recommendations of consultants under the PPF, the proposed project will finance about 126 months of technical assistance to implement the road improvement and maintenance program and to train Comorian staff. Five consultants engaged for periods of 12 to 36 months plus various short-term consultants for a total of 6 man-months will assist Government as follows:

(i) a highway engineer for three years, to head the consul- tants' team, and be in charge of planning, coordination and implementation of the road improvement and highway maintenance program;

(ii) a mechanical engineer for three years, to establish an efficient system for equipment procurement and storage, maintenance and repair;

(iii) a cost accountant for 12 months, to introduce a system for budgeting and cost accounting for road maintenance and improvement works, including equipment maintenance and repair; and

(iv) two construction foremen for 18 months each, to organize and supervise operations of the road improvement and maintenance units.

3.12 The consultants will coordinate their tasks with technical assis- tance to be provided by the Kuwait Fund (para. 2.24). Although the country will depend on technical assistance to operate and administer the highway sector for some time to come, the proposed project will assist Government in meeting its most urgent training needs. It is expected that on-the-job training by consultants will provide lower and medium level Comorian staff (mechanics, equipment operators, foremen, workshops chiefs) with the basic knowledge to effectively carry out road improvement and maintenance opera- tions; however, expatriates will continue to be needed for key positions.

(g) Fellowships

3.13 The project provides a lump sum for training abroad of higher level Comorian staff. Consultants employed under the project (paras. 3.10- 3.11) will review training needs and determine the number of fellowships required for specialized training. Fellowships will be agreed with Govern- ment during project implementation. - 21 -

(h) Studies

3.14 In order to prepare an eventual second highway project, the pro- posed project includes: (a) detailed engineering for the 25 km Fomboni-Hoani- Miringoni road on Moheli island, for which a feasibility study and preliminary engineering have been completed, showing rates of return of 13% for the Fomboni-Hoani section (10 km) and 8% for the Hoani-Miringoni section (15 km); (b) a feasibility study, and if justified, detailed engineering for the con- tinuing 20 km Miringoni-Nioumachoua section. The detailed engineering will include the preparation of bidding documents suitable for International Competitive Bidding (ICB) since the scope of construction works will be beyond the capacity of the road improvement unit to be created under the project. Terms of reference have been agreed with Government and are included in the Project File (Appendix I, C.2).

3.15 In conjunction with roads to be constructed in the Nioumakele area (para. 3.03), the project includes financing of preinvestment studies for an integrated rural development project. The studies will include the necessary surveys of the terrain, a hydrological survey, a population census and the identification and quantification of the area's precise needs. Terms of reference have been agreed with Government and are included in the Project File (Appendix I, C.3). - 22 -

C. Cost Estimates

3.16 Total project cost, net of taxes and duties (which will be waived) but includingcontingencies, is estimated at US$11.06 million, with a foreign exchange component of US$9.5 million or 86%. Detailed costs are as follows: % CF Millions US$ Millions Foreign Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Exchange

A. Road Construction and Supervision

(i) Construction, 20.4 km in Nioumakele 126.3 662.6 788.9 0.52 2.70 3.22 84 (ii) Supervision of (i) 3.8 34.6 38.4 0.02 0.14 0.16 90 130.1 697.2 827.3 0.54 2.84 3.38

B. Road Improvement

(i) Repair 700m Mutsa7udu-Sima road 8.6 25.7 34.3 0.03 0.11 0.14 75 (ii) Improvement Unit!i Spares, material, fuel - 155.0 155.0 - 0.63 0.63 100 Salaries 56.1 - 56.1 0.23 - 0,23 0 64.7 180.7 245.4 0.26 0.74 1.00

C. Road Maintenance

1 Resealing and 2 Patching Units!/ Equipment - 123.0 123.0 - 0.50 0.50 100 Spares, material, fuel - 343.0 343.0 - 1.40 1.40 100 Spare part stock - 73.5 73.5 - 0.30 0.30 100 Salaries 42.6 - 42.6 0.17 - 0.17 0 42.6 539.5 582.1 0.17 2.20 2.37

D. Workshops'l

(i) Building repairs 2.4 9.6 12.0 0.01 0.04 0.05 80 (ii) Equipment - 36.8 36.8 - 0.15 0.15 100 2.4 46.4 48.8 0.01 0.19 0.20

E. Soils Laboratory Equipment - 9.8 9.8 - 0.04 0.04 100

F. Technical Assistance2/ 27.0 232.7 259.7 0.11 0.95 1.06 90

G. Fellowships - 4.8 4.8 - 0.02 0.02 100

H. Studies

(i) Feasibility and Detailed Engineering 45 km of road section on Moheli 12.0 60.0 72.0 0.05 0.25 0.30 83 (ii) Preinvestment study for Nioumakele integrated rural development 10.0 50.0 60.0 0.04 0.21 0.25 83 22.0 110.0 132.0 0.09 0.46 0.55

Sub-total A-H 288.8 1821.1 2109.9 1.18 7.44 8.62

I. Contingencies

(i) Physical, 15% on A, 10% on B - H 35.3 214.6 249.9 0.14 0.88 1.02 (ii) Price (overall 16%) 3/ 49.0 298.9 347.9 0.20 1.22 1.42 84.3 513.5 597.8 0.34 2.10 2.44 Grand Total 373.1 2.334.6 2,707.7 1.52 9.54 11.06 86

1/ Technical Assistance included under F. 2/ Includes US$80,000 provided under PPF. 3/ Price contingencies, which provide for anticipated inflation over the implementation period, were derived as follows:

1978 1979 1980 1981

Civil Works 8 7.5 7.0 7.0 Equipment 7 6.5 6.0 6.0 - 23 -

3.17 The total project costs, estimated at May 1978 prices, were obtained as follows:

(a) Road construction: based on AfDF and IDA estimates on the basis of detailed engineering;

(b) Construction supervision: based on 24 man--months of consultants' services at an estimated average cost of about US$7,000 per man-month and found to be in line with ongoing supervision contracts in Comoros;

(c) Repair of Mutsamudu road: contract cost, as proposed by the lowest bidder, Societe Nationale des Travaux Publics (SNTP, France) and approved by the Association in February 1978;

(d) Equipment: based on recent quotations obtained in Comoros which reflect c.i.f. Moroni prices;

(e) Spare parts, materials, fuel: based on consultant esti- mates under the PPF;

(f) Salaries: based on Government scales for local staff and current international salary levels for consultants. The billing rate of the consulting firm, net of tax and contingencies, is an average of about US$5,500 per man- month, covering salaries, overhead (home office expenses, expatriate allowance, social security, and other indirect expenses), and fees. Reimbursable expenses payable to consultants average US$1,500 per field man-month, and include housing, internal and external travel, telecom- munications, report preparation, etc.;

(g) Workshop repairs: based on 1977 building costs for public buildings in Comoros;

(h) Studies: costs for feasibility and engineering studies of the Fomboni-Miringoni-Nioumachoua road are based on costs for the ongoing detailed engineering study for the Nioumakele road on the assumption of: (i) about 30 months of engineering staff at about US$5,500 per man-month covering salaries, overhead and fees plus about US$1,500 per field man-month of local expenditures for housing and daily allowances; (ii) about 15 man-months of consultants surveying staff recruited in neighboring countries at about US$1,500 per man-month covering salaries, overhead, fees and local expenditures; and (iii) costs for purchase and operation of vehicles, soils and surveying equipment and materials, international and inter-island travel, office equipment and supplies, telecommunications and - 24 -

report preparation, including salaries for draftsmen and printing. The rural development preinvestment study is based on the mission's estimate for similar projects in neighboring countries.

D. Financing

3.18 An IDA Credit of US$5.0 million would be available towards project financing. On August 18, 1978, the African Development Fund (AfDF) provided a credit of US$4.5 million towards parallel cofinancing of the Nioumakele road construction and supervision. On July 28, 1978, the OPEC Special Fund provided US$1.0 million to finance part of the road improvement and maintenance program, including equipment for one resealing and two patching units, part of the technical assistance (one mechanical engineer and one foreman for resealing brigade) and fellowships. Government has agreed to finance all local salaries. Effectiveness of the IDA Credit will be conditional upon notification by the OPEC Special Fund that all conditions precedent to the disbursement of the OPEC Loan, except for the effectiveness of the IDA Credit, have been fulfilled. Details of project financing are as follows: Financing Plan for Project (US$ million)

IDA AfDF OPEC FUND GOVERI4NENT TOTAL Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total

A. Road Construction and Supervision

(i) Construction, 20.4 km in Nioumakele - - - 0.52 2.70 3.22 - - - - - 0.52o 2.70 3.22 (ii) Supervision of (i) - - - 0.02 0.14 0.16 ------0.02 0.14 0.16 0.54 2.84 3.38 0.54 2.84 3.38

B. Read Improvement

(i) Repair 700m Mutsamudu-Sima road 0.03 0.11 0.14 ------o0.03 0.11 0.14 (ii) Improvement Unit Spares, material, fuel - 0.63 0.63 - - _ _ _ 0.63 0.63 Salaries ------0.23 0.23 o.23 - 0.23 0,3 0.74 0.77 0.23 0.23 0.26 0.74 1.00

C. Road Maintenance

(i) 1 Resealing and 2 Patching Units I' Equipment - - - - 0.50 0.50 - - - - 0.501- 0.50 Spares, material, fuel - 1.40 1.40 - - - - - 1.40 1.40 Spare part stock - 0.30 0.30 ------0.30 0.30 Salaries ------0.17 0.17 0.17 - 0.17 1.70 1.70 0.50 0.50 0.17 0.17 0.17 2.20 2.37

D. Workshops

(i) Building repairs 0.01 0.04 0,05 - _ - _ _ _ _ _ 0.01 0.04 0.05 (if) Equipment - 0.15 0.15 ------_ _ - 0.15 0.15 0.01 0.19 0.20 0.01 0.19 0.20

E. Soils Laboratory Equipment - 0.04 0.04 - - - - - 0.04 0.04

F. Technical Assistance 0.07 0.55 0.62- - - - - 0.40 0.40 0.04 0.04 0.11 0,95 1.06

G. Fellowships - - - - 0.02 0.02 _ - - - 0.02 0.02

H. Studies

(i) Feasibility and Detailed Engineering 45 km of road section on Moheli 0.05 0.25 0.30 - - - - - _ 0.05 0.25 0.30 (ii) Preinvestment study for Nioumakele integrated rural development 0.04 0.21 0.25 - _ _ _ _ 0.04 0.21 0.25 0.09 0.46 0.55 0.09 0.46 0.55

Sub-total A-P. 0.20 3.68 3.88 0.54 2.84 3.38 - 0.92 0.92 0.44 - 0.44 1.18 7.44 8.62

I. Contingencies 0.04 1.08 1.12 0.18 0.94 1.12 - 0.08 0.08 0.12 - 0.12 0.34 2.10 2.44

Grand total 0.24 4.76 5.00 0.72 3.78 4.50 _ 1.00 1.00 0.56 - 0.56 1.52 9.54 11.06

1/ Technical Assistance included under F. 2/ Includes US$80,000 provided under PPF.

August 1978 - 26 -

3.19 In order to accelerate definition of the road improvementand main- tenance component,US$80,000 have been made available under the PPF to finance some initial consultant services (para. 3.10); this will be refinancedunder the proposed Credit. In addition, retroactivefinancing to cover the cost of urgently needed repairs of the 700 m Mutsamudu road section, about US$140,000, is recommended.

E. Implementation and Procurement

3.20 As agreed with Government, the MEITQL, through the DEIT, will be responsiblefor overall project execution and, in particular,will be in charge of overall planning and budgetingfor road improvementand maintenance operations. The DEIT's road maintenancedivision will be responsiblefor the execution of maintenanceand road improvementdone by force account; it is also responsiblefor maintenanceand repair of equipment. The technical assistance team under the project will operate in an advisory capacity within the DEIT; its team leader will be responsibleto DEIT for supervisingthe implementation of the road improvementand maintenanceprograms.

3.21 Constructionof the Nioumakele road will be let on a unit price basis followingICB in accordancewith AfDF's regulations. Constructionis expected to start in the first half of 1979 and be completedwithin 12 months; supervisionof constructionwill be carried out by consultantsselected by Government and employed on terms and conditionssatisfactory to the AfDF.

3.22 Repair of the Mutsamudu section was carried out under contract following local bidding procedures since the scope of works did not warrant ICB. The two contractorsnow in the Comoros, who have satisfactorilycom- pleted similar works there, sulbmittedtheir bids in January 1978, and SNTP (Madagascar),the lowest evaluated bidder, was awarded the contract. Work started in March 1978 and is aLready completed.

3.23 Road improvementand maintenanceworks for paved roads will be carried out by mechanizedunits on force account,which is the most economic method for this type of work in the country. Consultantsunder the project's technical assistance componentwill prepare a three-year road maintenanceand improvementwork program. Government agreed to submit the program for the Association'sapproval and, to take account of current developments,to submit a yearly updated program for the Association'sapproval three months before the beginning of each year's program. The DEIT Study Section will prepare necessary work drawings and carry out engineeringsurveys for the works to be executed; the soils laboratory to be created under the project will do the necessary site investigationsand soil tests. The road improvementand - 27 -

resealing units will operate sequentially on all three islands following the agreed work program. One patching unit will operate exclusively on Grande Comore; the other will be established on Anjouan but will be transferred to Moheli as warranted. Inter-island transportation will be undertaken with the Government-owned landing craft tankers, which have ample capacity for such service. The technical assistance team will help execute and supervise the works, which are expected to start in late 1978, andlwill ensure cost control and efficiency of the units. Government has agreed to employ or assign the qualified local personnel and counterparts required to implement the road improvement and maintenance program, as shown in Annex 3.4. Upon completion of the program under the project, the units will continue their work in line with Government priorities.

3.24 Equipment and spare parts, workshop tools and equipment, and soils laboratory equipment will be procured on the basis of negotiated contracts following international shopping among potential suppliers in line with Bank Group Guidelines. Government has agreed to this method of procurement which has been found to be the most adequate, given (a) the small number of items to be procured, (b) the need for standardization so that the equipment financed under the project will complement that provided by EDF and the Kuwait Fund, and (c) the total lack of response to international competitive bidding for similar types of equipment needed under EDF-financed assistance. The list of road maintenance equipment to be procured under the project, as agreed with Government, is given in Annex 3.3; the requirements for spare parts and workshop tools and equipment and soils laboratory equipment will be determined by consultants during project implementation. DEIT, with the assistance of consultants under the project, will be in charge of procurement.

3.25 Workshop buildings will be improved by force account or by local building contractors following local procedures. Consultants under the project's technical assistance component will outliLne required works and method of execution to be agreed with Government during project implementa- tion.

3.26 Technical Assistance and Studies. As agreed with Government, con- sultants for technical assistance as well as feasibility, detailed engineer- ing and preinvestment studies will be selected by Government and employed on terms and conditions satisfactory to the Association.

3.27 Completion of the project is expected by the end of 1981. Govern- ment has agreed to the implementation schedule given in Annex 3.5 and the progress reporting system shown in Annex 3.6. Government also agreed to submit to the Association a completion report within six months of project termination. - 28 -

F. Disbursements

3.28 A disbursement schedule for IDA funds is given in Annex 3.7. The IDA credit will finance 45% of the project costs, covering 100% of foreign costs and all local costs of the selected components (except local salaries).

G. Ecology

3.29 The project is expected to have a favorable impact on the ecology. The Nioumakele road, in particular, will facilitate access to soil conserva- tion works to be undertaken under the rural development project on a seriously eroded area of the plateau. - 29 - ANNEX 3.1

FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS

FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

Design Standards - Nioumakele Road

Design Speed (km/h) 40 Minimum Horizontal Radius (m) 30(12)1/ * Minimum Vertical Radius: Concave (m) 700 Convex (m) 500 Maximum Gradient (%) 10.5 Maximum Superelevation (%) 7 Pavement Width (m) 5.0(3.5)2/ Formation Width (m) 6.0(4.5)2/ Maximum Widening of Pavement in Curves (m) 2.5 Cross Fall: Pavement (%) 2 Shoulders (%) 3 Side Slope: Embankment (horizontal/vertical) 3/2 Cut ( " / " ) 1/2, (1/6)2/ Pavement Type: Sub-base 14 cm of selected materials Base 15-25 cm of crushed stone Surface Double Bituminous Surface Treatment Width of Structures same as Roadway Width

1/ Exceptional in parenthesis

2/ Widths for the Antsahe-Dziani and Antsahe-Niambamoro sections in parenthesis.

3/ In rock formation

Source: SECMO, 1978

August 1978 FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS

FIRST HIGHWAYPROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

Proposed Road Improvement Unit and Maintenance Units for Paved Roads

Road Maintenance Units

Road Improvement Unit 1 Resealing Unit 2 Patching Units

Equipment Equipment Equipment per Unit

1 Dozer, 150 hp * 1 Bitumen spreader, 3000 1 1 Patching truiek + 1 Grader, 125 hp 2 Chip spreader, 8t 1 Roller (vib. hand) o 1 Water tanker, 4500 1 0 1 Front-end loader 1 Spreader (hand) 1 Front-end loader 1 Roller (pneumatic), lOt 1 Mixer, 500 1 1 Compressor and Drills * 1 Tandem Roller, 6t 1 Automobile 1 Roller (pneumatic) 12t * 1 Automobile l1Pick-up truck o 1 Lubrification truck * 1 Mobile Heater, 4000 1 4 Dump Trucks, 8t *(2)o(2) 1 Automobile * 1 Pavement marker o

Staff Staff Staff per Unit

1 Foreman 1 Foreman 1 Foreman 4 Equipment operators 3 Equipment operators 3 Drivers 3 Helpers for equipment operators 2 Helpers for equipment operator 5 Specialized laborers 4 Drivers 4 Drivers 4 Laborers 4 Specialized laborers 6 Specialized laborers 20 Laborers 10 Laborers

Annual work capacity per unit:

40 km 65 km 125 km * Financed by EDF o Financed by Kuwait Fund + Available

Source: Mission and BCEOMestimates, 1977 August 1978 -31- ANNEX 3.3

FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS

FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

Equipment to be Procured under the Project (at 1978 prices)

1. Equipment for various unitsl/:

Number required for Estimated 1 Resealing 2 Patching Unit Unit Units Total Price

Bitumen Spreader, 3000 1 1 - 1 US$43,000 Front-end Loader 1 - 1 57,000 Pneumatic Roller, lOt 1 - 1 49,000 Mobile Heater, 4000 1 1 - 1 74,000 Mixer, 500 1 - 2 2 7,000 Spreader (hand), 500 1 - 3 3 3,000 Chip Spreader, 8t 2 - 2 91,000 Pick-up - 2 2 49,000 Automobile 1 1 2 15,000 Tandem Roller, 6t 1 - 1 41,000 Total Equipment Cost US$429,000 Spare Parts 51,000 US$480,000

2. Radio Equipmenti/ US$ 20,000

3. Workshop Equipment2/ US$150,000

4. Soils Laboratory Equipment2/ US$ 40,000

1/ Financed by OPEC

2/ Financed by IDA

Source: Mission and BCEOM Estimates, 1977

AuRust 1978 ANNEX 3.4 Page 1 - 32 -

FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

Local :Personnelto be Assigned to Road Improvementand Maintenance Program

A. Public Works Sector

1. Engineersand Technicians

1 engineer responsible for roads 3 senior roa.dtechnicians

2. 1 Road ImprovementBrigade

1 foreman 4 equipment operators 3 helpers for equipment operators 4 drivers 4 specializedlaborers 20 laborers

3. 1 Resealing Unit

1 foreman 3 equipment operators 2 helpers for equipment operators 4 drivers 6 specializedlaborers 10 laborers

4. 2 Patching Units

2 foremen 6 drivers 10 specializedlaborers 8 laborers

5. Quarry Operations

2 equipment operators 2 helpers to equipment operators 4 laborers ANNEX 3.4 - 33 - Page 2

6. Signalization,Maintenance of Culverts

1 foreman 1 driver 7 specializedlaborers 5 laborers

7. Each Regional District (Bavou)

1 foreman 18 laborers 4 drivers 1 equipment operator 1 helper for equipment operator

B. Equipment Sector

1. Central Services

1 Senior technician 1 Chief mechanic 1 Secretary 1 Radio operator 1 Personnel officer

2. Workshops in Moroni, Mutsamudu and Fomboni

1 head of workshop for each workshop

Mechanics and supporting staff to be determined by consultants under the project's technical assistance component.

Source: Mission and BCEOM estimate, 1977

August 1978 - 34 ANNEX 3.)

FEDEn " IST 1MTrPcP1rBLIC OF THE Co>5T'-S

FIRST HIGHWAYPROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

Implementation Schedule

ResponsibilitY 1978 1979

I. CONSTRUCTIONNIOUMAKELE ROAD

A. Construction Works 1) Preparation of bidding documents Consultants 2) Prequalification of contractors DEIT/IDA 3) International competitive bidding DEIT 4) Evaluation of bids and award Consultants/DEIT/IDA 5) Works DEIT/Contractor

B. Construction Supervision l) Consultants shortlist DEIT/IDA 2) Proposals DEIT 3) Evaluation of proposals and contract award DEIT/IDA 4) Works DEIT/Consultants

II. ROAD IUPROVEMENTAND MAINTENANCE

A. Repair of Mutsamudu Road 1) Preparation of bidding documents DEIT 2) Local competitive bidding DEIT 3) Evaluation of bids and award DEIT 4) Works DEIT

B. Improvement of tracks and road maintenance (i) Procurement 1) Study of equipment and spare part needs, preparation of bidding documents Consultants 2) Agreement by Government and Association DEIT/IDA 3) Competitive bidding DEIT 4) Evaluation of bids and award DEI/IDA 5) Equipment delivery DEIT/Consultants

(ii) Execution of program 1) Preparation of program Consultants 2) Agreement by Government and Association DEIT/IDA 3) Works DEIT/Consultants

(iii) Improvement of workshops 1) Definition of works and preparation of bidding documents Consultants 2) Agreement by Government and Association on scope of work DEI/IDA 3) Local competitive bidding DEIT 4) Eval,5Ition of bids and contract award DEIT/IDA 5) Works

(iv) Training Consultants _ I

III. STUDIES

A. Engineering of Fomboni-Miringoni-Nioumachoua 1) Consultants Bhortlist DEI/IDA 2) Proposals DEIT 3) Evaluation of proposals and contract award DEIT/IDA 4) Works DEIT/Consultants (i) Feasibility DEIT/Consultants (ii) Detailed engineering DEIT/Consultants

B. Nioumakele Rural Development Study l 1) Consultants shortlist DEIT/IDA 2) Proposal DEIT 3) Evaluation of proposal and contract award DEIT/IDA 4) Works DEIT/Consultants

August 1978 - 35 - ANNEX 3.6 Page 1

FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS

FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

Progress Reporting System

1. Progress Reports should be submitted quarterly in triplicate,no later than one calendar month after the end of each quarter. The first report should cover the quarter ending December 31, 1978.

2. The Report should contain the following information:

I. General Information

(a) the physical progress accomplishedto date of report and during the reportingperiod;

(b) actual or expected deviations from the project imple- mentation schedule;

(c) actual or expected difficultiesor delays and their effect on the implementationschedule aLndthe actual steps taken or planned to overcome the difficulties and avoid delays;

(d) expected changes in the completion dates of the project;

(e) key personnel changes in the staffs of the DEIT, con- sultants and contractors;

(f) matters which may affect the project cost; and

(g) any developmentactivity likely to affiectthe eco- nomic viability of the project components.

II. A bar-type progress chart, based on the project implementa- tion schedule, showing the progress in each project compo- nent and including a planned and actual expenditure graph.

III. A financial statement set out in tabular form which shows for each of the project components:

(a) original estimated cost;

(b) revised cost, if appropriate;

(c) actual expenditure; - 36 -

ANNEX 3.6 Page 2

(d) projected expenditure; and

(e) actual withdrawals and projected withdrawals from the Credit Account.

IV. Brief confirmation of the status of action on each of the covenants of the Credit Agreement.

August 1978 - 37 -

ANNEX3.7

FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COIOROS

FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

Estimated Schedule of Disbursement

Bank/IDA Fiscal Cumulative Disbursement Year at Quarter Ending at end of Quarter (in US$ million)

1979

March 31, 1979 1.100 June 30, 1979 1.550

1980

September 30, 1979 1.950 December 31, 1979 2.350 March 31, 1980 2.750 June 30, 1980 3.100

1981

September 30, 1980 3.350 December 31, 1980 3.700 March 31, 1981 3.900 June 30, 1981 4.200

1982

September 30, 1981 4.400 December 31, 1981 4.700 March 31, 1982 4.950 June 30, 1982 5.000

Closing date: December 31, 1982

Source: AppraisalMission, October 1977

August 1978 - 38 -

4. ECONOMIC EVALUATION

A. Main Benefits

4.01 The project is expected to yield benefits in several areas. First, it will assist in the establishmentof an adequate road administration, through an organizationstudy, provision of technicalassistance to implement the study's recommendationsand training of local staff on the job and abroad, so that foreign experts will graduallybe replaced by local staff. The in- stitution building component accounts for about 15% of the project cost; no economic rate of return calculationhas been attempted. Second, the project will help the administrationto carry out a three-year road maintenance and improvementprogram, through the financing of additional road equipment and initial stocks of spare parts, fuel and other imported materials. This project component accounts for about 40% of total costs, and is expected to yield a 17% economic rate of return; benefits will be reductions in vehicle operating costs and consequent reduced transport costs to both producers and consumers. Third, the road constructionelement, about 40% of project costs, will benefit one of the most densely populated and undeveloped areas, paving the way for a planned rural integrateddevelopment project by which agricul- ture net value added could increase as much as fivefold. The expected eco- nomic rate of return would be about 12%, essentially dependent on the success of the developmentproject. Social benefits,which are expected to be con- siderable,have not been included in the calculationsbecause meaningful quantificationis virtually impossible at this stage; the project's overall economic rate of return is about 13%.

B. Nioumakele Road Construction

4.02 The Nioumakele road was selected for improvementbased on several criteria. First, the relative priority of improving various road sections was analyzed consideringpopulation of the areas of influence, agricultural potential as compared to actual development,and the extent to which the lack of an all-weather road appeared to be a main constraint to potential development. The Institut de Recherches AgronomiquesTropicales et des Cultures Vivrieres (IRAT) has been conductingagricultural research in the Comoros since 1964, and provided informationon agriculturalaspects, such as present and probable yields (based on a soils survey), costs and prices at various locations and marketing stages, consumption patterns, and effects of previous road constructionon production,marketing and prices in the areas of influence. Second, for social and economic reasons, Government gives top priority to development of the Nioumakele area which is one of the most densely populated and backward regions in the country; Government has requested assistancefor this purpose from various agencies, and the EDF is - 39 - already carrying out a pilot project there. 1/ And th-ird,existing feasibility studies for several roads (para. 2.09), which base their justificationprim- arily on vehicle operating savings, were also reviewed before choosing the road to be constructed.

4.03 At present, the paved network linking the port and capital,Mutsamudu, to eastern Anjouan ends at M'Remani (see Map IBRD 13414). The project will assist in completingthe all-weather connection to the southernmostpart of the island through financing constructionof a 20.4 km section of the Nioumakele-areacircular road from Ongoujou to M'Ramani with spurs to Dziani and Niambamoro. Although Government had requested financing for the whole road length (30.3 km), constructionof the most difficult and expensive 9 km climbing from M'Ramani to Ongoujou is not justified at this time. 2/

4.04 The project road has an influence area of about 3,500 ha, of which 2,700 ha have agriculturalpotential. Population of the road area in 1977 was some 24,000, growing at about 3.5% p.a. However, the area's population may now be as high as 30,000 since many of the 18,000 persons recently re- patriated from Madagascar (para. 1.02) were originally from Nioumakele and have returned thereto. Land pressure is among the highest in Comoros, about 10 persons per hectare of agriculturalland. Although only traditional low-yield techniquesare used, agriculture is the main livelihood,providing about US$15 per capita a year. Malnutrition is widespread.

4.05 There is scope for improving the area's agriculturalproduction, provided assistance is given. Crops grown at present are mainly for sub- sistence: , manioc, potatoes, bananas, coconuts and some vegetables. due to land pressure, soil erosion is spreading. According to IRAT, the present net average yield per hectare is about US$150, but could be doubled by simply introducingimproved agriculturalmethods and increased as much as fivefold with intensive export crop cultivation (e.g., ylang-ylang,pepper, vanilla, coffee). This, however, would require extension services and provi- sion of inputs, and an all-weatherroad to permit access and crop extraction. The EDF considers it urgent to begin controlling erosion in the area and is therefore starting a pilot project introducing terracing of steep slopes, tree

1/ The French administrationhas also recognized the need to develop this area, in the 1971 "Etude de l'Amenagementde la presqu'ile de Nioumakele", Bureau pour le Developpementde la Production Agricole (BDPA), and in the 1974 "Etude d'Identificationdu Projet de DeveloppementEconomique Integre du Nioumakele a Anjouan propose au financementdes Nations Unies", Ministere de DeveloppementRural, although no action was taken in that respect.

2/ This section traverses an intensely eroded and unpopulated slope in need of soil conservationworks such as afforestation,which can be undertaken upon completion of contiguous road sections. In addition, when the network is developed in the future, it will probably prove more useful to construct a coastal road from M'Ramani to Domoni, giving a more direct and flatter road connectionwith the north. - 40 - planting and construction of drainage ditches, water tanks and some feeder roads. However, more comprehensive action is required, and the project is therefore financing preinvestment studies for an integrated rural development project, with implementation scheduled to start by the time the project road is completed.

4.06 The economic analysis (Annex 4.1) is based on an assessment of costs and benefits with and without the proposed road construction to paved standards over 20 years, the estimated economic life of the road. The invest- ment cost is taken as the net of tax cost of the road improvement, including supervision and physical contingencies. Traffic volume on the road may rise from its present 30 vpd to 100 vpd after completion of construction, as happened elsewhere in Comoros.

4.07 Since the road alone may not trigger agricultural development, its economic return is evaluated as a combined road construction-rural development project. Until results of the preinvestment study become available, the net agricultural value added which is used in the analysis is only illustrative, based on IRAT estimates. Depending upon the timing of agricultural improve- ments and the type of agricultural methods adopted, the economic rate of return ranges between a conservative 8% and a probable 12%; benefits will mainly accrue to agricultural producers in the project area. Ultimately, some US$400,000 of yearly food imports (at 1978 prices) could be avoided, or export revenues increased. Social benefits to be derived from the road have not been quantified but are expected to be considerable, given the conditions prevailing in Nioumakele. In addition, road maintenance costs will be reduced since it will no longer be necessary to reopen the road each year after the rainy season.

C. Road Improvement and Maintenance

4.08 The economic analysis of the road improvement and resealing and patching units is based on an assessment of costs and benefits expected with and without the proposed project over a seven-year period, taken to be the lifespan of the equipment procured under the project; the overall economic rate of return for these activities is about 17%. Quantified benefits are vehicle operating savings, considering present and projected traffic volumes. The investment cost is taken as the net of tax cost of the improvement and maintenance works and includes procurement of equipment and spare parts (including the EDF and Kuwait Fund equipment contributions), repairs of workshop buildings, procurement of workshop and laboratory equipment, and technical assistance directly attributable to the units. IDA would provide about 70% of the program's cost over the first three years. Other benefits such as road user time savings and better access to social facilities have not been quantified.

4.09 The rate of return expected for the improvement unit is 12% (Annex 4.2). The unit would annually upgrade about 40 km of track to all-weather standards; with adequate routine maintenance and periodic regravelling, the - 41 - improvementwork would have a 10 year economic life, ander the conditions pre- vailing in the Comoros. The improvementcost would be about US$15,000 per km 1/ and would eliminate the need for reopening the tracks following each rainy season, at an actual cost of some US$1,500 per km. In addition, traffic would increase as a result of the year-round serviceability,to about 30 vpd in the opening years and growing thereafter at about 15% p.a. (only 4 vpd in the first years as compared to 11% or an average of about 11 vpd for main road traffic growth). Vehicle operating savings of normal traffic, which consists of pick-ups during the dry season, would be in the order of US$0.14/vehicle-km.

4.10 The rate of return estimated for the resealing and patching units is about 34%. The benefit cost ratio discounted at L0% is 2.6:1 (Annex 4.3). Resealing of about 70 km of roads and patching of about 250 km as necessary would be carried out annually. Resealing would be repeated every 7 years, but roads are assumed to remain in good condition with adequate maintenance and patching. Without this project component, the paved roads would deter- iorate and probably need reconstructionin five to ten years; however, the avoided reconstructioncost has not been included in the benefits, which reflect only vehicle operating savings. An average of 100 vpd on the paved roads has been assumed for 1980, and growing thereafter at 5% p.a. Average vehicle operating saving per km derived from the resurfacinghas been esti- mated at US$0.05 in 1980, and increasing to US$0.12 in 1990 when reconstruc- tion would be needed if no maintenance is carried out.

D. Studies

4.11 Detailed engineering. In 1972 BCEOM (France) completed a feasi- bility study which concluded that constructionof the Fomboni-Hoani road section (10 km) would yield an economic rate of return of about 13%; a 1974 study by SECMO (France) found that the Hoani-Miringonisection (15 km) would yield a return of about 8%. The area of influence is already planted exten- sively with coconut palms, the exploitationof which is hindered by lack of access to the Fomboni "port;" the forthcomingIDA export crop improvement project to be appraised in 1979, will cover, inter alia, this area, and would improve the road constructionjustification. The project would finance the detailed engineeringfor both sections, leaving the BCEOM alignment for the first section to take advantage of the existing structures. The extension of this road from Miringoni to Nioumachoua (20 km) traverses difficult,moun- tainous terrain. It is the missing link to complete a circular road to Fomboni, but at present the existing track is too poor to permit vehicle traffic. A feasibility study and, if justified,detailed engineeringwill be financed under the project.

4.12 Preinvestment study. The project includes the required studies for the integrated rural developmentproject proposed for the Nioumakele area (para. 4.05).

1/ Whether some road sections will need a bitumen pavement will be deter- mined during the execution of works; the additional cost would be justified by a considerableextension of the economic life. - 42 -

E. Risks

4.13 There are no major technical risks involved in the project, and provisionshave been made for an adequate preparation to minimize subsequent project implementationdelays which would increase costs and postpone bene- fits. However, since this is the Comoros' first Bank Group-financedproject, Government may face some difficultieswith Bank Group procedures and with the recruitmentof necessary consultants financed under the project. Further- more, a shortage of local fund[sfor financing of even the small portion of local cost required under the project is another risk. However, performance during project preparationhas been very satisfactory,and the implementation schedule adopted seems realistic. To minimize these risks, close supervision during project implementationwill be undertaken.

4.14 Sensitivityanalysis has been carried out consideringthe risk of lower than expected benefits; results of that analysis are still generally satisfactory. Should lower than expected traffic growth and/or unit vehicle operating savings reduce benefits by 20%, the rate of return of the resealing and patching componentwould be about 28%, and of the improvementcomponent, 10%. However, should the rural integrated development project planned for the Nioumakele area be postponed, the rate of return for the related road constructioncould be as low as 8%. 43 -ANNEX 4.1 Page 1 of 2 FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS

FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

Economic Evaluation

Nioumakele Road Construction (CF million, at 1978 prices)

Road Main- Agric. Net Value Added Increase 1/ Construction tenance Totals Year Cost Benefits Conservative Probable Conservative Probable

1978 411 -411 -411 1979 411 2 4 12 -405 -397

1980 4 7 30 11 34 1981 4 10 45 14 49 1982 4 15 60 19 64 1983 4 20 80 24 84 1984 4 25 105 29 109 1985 4 30 110 34 114 1986 2 37 125 39 127 1987 4 44 135 48 139 1988 4 53 150 57 154 1989 4 66 160 70 164

1990 4 99 190 103 194 1991 4 123 205 127 209 1992 4 146 225 150 229 1993 2 172 250 174 252 1994 4 192 275 196 279 1995 4 216 290 220 294 1996 4 239 310 243 314 1997 4 263 330 267 334 1998 4 285 342 289 346 1999 4 310 355 314 359

Rate of Return: 8% 12%

1/ See page 2 of this Annex. Source: Mission estimates

August 1978 i/ Net value added increases were derived as shown illustratively below, but could be achieved by different combinations and/or timings of the various cultivation methods, yields and crops:

Conservative development Probable development Traditional methods Net aericult.revenue Net apricut.revenueTraditional Netrevenue agricult. only (w/o road or 6 developm. pro ect) Traditional Improved Intensive 10 CF Incr.area Improved Intensive 106 CF (1) N.a.r. N.a.r. N.a.r. Tncrement. N.a.r. N.a.r. N.a.r. N.a~.r. Increment. Hectares Net agricult. 6 6 6 as compar. 6 6 6 6 as compar. Year cultivatedY revenue, 10 CF_L/ ha % 10 CF ha % 10 CF ha % 10 CF Total to (1) hat 10 CF ha 10 CF ha % 10 CF ha % 10 CF Total to (1)

1979 2000 70 95 67 5 7 74 4 95 67 17 6 5 7 80 10 1980 2057 72 90 65 10 14 79 7 90 65 65 23 10 14 102 30 1981 2114 74 85 63 i5 21 84 10 80 59 85 30 20 30 119 45 1982 2170 76 80 61 20 30 91 15 65 50 85 30 30 46 5 10 136 60 1983 2260 79 75 59 25 40 99 20 50 9o 74 26 40 63 10 30 159 80 1984 2340 82 70 58 30 50 108 26 35 Y9 45 16 $0 82 i5 60 187 105 1985 2430 85 65 55 35 6o 115 30 30 15 50 85 20 85 195 110 1986 251o 88 60 53 40 72 125 37 20 18 50 88 30 1 ol 213 125 1987 2600 91 i5 05 45 85 135 44 15 14 50 91 35 121 226 135 1988 2685 94 50 47 50 100 1 47 53 10 q 50 94 40 138 241 147 1969 45 42 5 28 170 76 5 5 45 85 50 164 254 160 1990 r!40 37 10 56 193 99 540 75 55 204 284 190 1991 " 35 33 5 i5 34 217 123 5 35 65 6 60 229 299 205 1992 " 30 28 20 112 2740 14 e 30 56 65 258 31 9 225 1993 25 24 25 142 266 1712 25 47 70 292 344 250 1994 20 18 30 168 286 192 , 20 38 75 326 369 275 1995 ii5 14 35 196 310 216 20 341 384 290 1996 " " 10 9 40 224 333 23) 5 " 20 " 361 404 310 1997 5 645 252 357 263 20 " 381 424 330 1998 5 ' $0 280 380 286 20 I 393 436 342 1999 45 85 55 308 393 299 20 6064 449 355

J Asswuing that cultivated area increases at the population growth rate until no idle land is left. 2/ Assumed net revenues per ha: CF 35,000 (traditional methods) CF 70,000 (improved methods) CF 100,000/200,000 (intensive methods, or shift to export crops) The following yields and prices are illustrative:

Yields, ton/ha Average Price Average Price Subsistence Cultivatiorn method CF/kg Gross Revenue, 000 CF/ha CF/kg Gross Revenue Crops Traditional Improved Intensive (to producer) Traditional Improved Intensive Cash Crops Yield, ton/ha (to producer) iOOO CF/ha Rice 0.4 1.2 2.0 25 10 30 50 Copra 1.7 50 85 Maize o.6 1.0 8.0 40 24 40 320 Cloves (dried) 0.07 - 0.17 1000 70 - 170 Peas 0.4 .0 1 1.5 60 2ZJ 60 90 Cinnamon 0.2 160 32 Gram 0.2 o.5 1.0 175 35 88 1/5 Coffee 0.5 - 1.0 200 100 - 200 Voheme 0.3 0.8 1.5 200 60 160 300 Cacao 0.3 - 0.4 180 54 - 72 3.0 15.0 20.0 35 105 525 700 Pepper 3.5 230 805 Sweet potato 3.0 10.0 20.0 25 75 250 500 Girnger 5.0 125 - 250 625 -1250 Manioc 6.0 15.0 22.0 25 i5o 375 550 Ylang 2.2 (flowers) 40 88 > Banana 6.0 10.0 25.0 25 200 250 625 0.02 - 0.05 (essence) 5i50 550 Average, according to crop patterns 40 100 250

Average 100 - 250 o

Source: IRAT, 1977

August 1978 45

FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS ANNEX 4.2

FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

Economic Evaluation

Improvement Unit (Thousands US$, at 1978 prices)

Equipment Operating Road Maintenance VOC Year Cost Costs Savings I' Savings 2/

1979 1,430 280 1980 350 36 32 1981 350 84 80 1982 350 132 137 1983 350 180 200 1984 350 225 275 1985 350 272 360 1986 320 415 1987 320 480 1988 320 550 1989 284 630 1990 236 590 1991 192 500 1992 144 400 1993 96 285 1994 48 150

Economic rate of return: 12% Sensitivity: + 30% maintenance savings 14% - 20% vehical operating savings 10%

1/ Avoided yearly track reopening, at an estimated US$ 1,500/km, less about US$ 300/km for routine maintenance of improved road, and US$ 400/km each five years for regravelling. The unit would improve 30 km the first year, and 40 km p.a. thereafter, with a 10 year economic life.

2/ Assuming 30 vpd in opening years and a 15% traffic growth p.a.; that normal traffic (pick-ups in dry season) operating costs would decrease from US$ 0.34 to 0.20 on a good gravel road; that half the traffic would be generated, with half the normal traffic savings.

Source: Mission estimate, 1978.

August 1978 - 46 -

FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS ANNEX 4.3

FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

Economic Evaluation Resealing and Patching Units (ThousandsUS$, at 1978 prices) Equipment Operating Increased VOC Year Cost Cost MaintenanceCost 1/ Savings 2/

1979 470 340 1980 340 10 90 1981 340 24 140 1982 340 38 260 1983 340 52 490 1984 340 66 825 1985 340 80 1,280 1986 94 1,860 1987 84 2,250 1988 70 2,250 1989 56 2,100

Economic rate of return: 34% Sensitivity: - 20% benefits 28% + 10% costs 32% B:C, at 10% discount rate 2.6:1

1/ Estimated as US$ 200/km above level without project.

2/ Vehicle operating savings were derived assuming that the units would improve 50 km the first year and 70 km p.a. thereafter; that average traffic on paved roads would be 100 vpd in 1980 and increasing at 5% p.a.; that the saving per vehicle/km would increase from US$ 0.05 in 1980 to US$ 0.12 irL1989, considering a paved network deteriorating increasinglywithout the project until 1990, when it should be re- constructed. Vehicle operating costs per km on good paved roads would be as follows, in US$: small car, 0.08; medium size car or pick-up, 0.11; 3.5 ton truck, 0.26; and average given the traffic composition, 0.12.

Source: Mission estimate!,1978.

August 1978 - 47 -

5. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.01 Agreement with Government was reached on:

(a) introduction of a road classification system before the end of 1978 (para. 2.01) and start of annual traffic counts on roads classified as "major", starting in 1979 (para. 2.02);

(b) taking the measures necessary to limit the maximum permissible axle load to 8 tons before the end of 1978 (para. 2.02);

(c) re-establishment of a vehicle registration system by December 31, 1979 (para. 2.03);

(d) the organization of Government's road administration (paras. 2.06 and 3.20), and the employment or assignment of qualified local personnel and counterparts (para. 3.23);

(e) re-establishment of the Road Fund by the end of 1978 (para. 2.12);

(f) employment by January 1, 1979 of a qualified and expe- rienced soils engineer to head the soils laboratory to be established under the project (para. 2.14);

(g) consultants for technical assistance and for feasibility, detailed engineering and preinvestment studies will be selected by Government and employed on terms and condi- tions acceptable to the Association (para. 3.26); outlines of the scope of all services and terms of reference have been discussed and agreed (paras. 3.14-3.15);

(h) financing of local salaries by Government (para. 3.18);

(i) submission for the Association's approval of a three-year road maintenance and improvement work program to be undertaken under the project and a yearly updated program to be submitted for the Association's approval three months before the beginning of each year's program (para. 3.23); r (j) a list of road maintenance equipment to be procured and the method of procurement for maintenance equipment and spare parts, workshop tools and equipment, and soils laboratory equipment (para. 3.24); and

(k) an implementation schedule, progress reporting system, and project completion report (para. 3.27). - 48 -

5.02 Effectivenessof the IDA Credit will be conditionalupon notification by the OPEC Special Fund that:all conditionsprecedent to the disbursementof the OPEC Loan, except for the effectivenessof the IDA Credit, have been ful- filled (para. 3.18).

5.03 With the agreementsand under the conditionsindicated above, the project is suitable for an IDA Credit of US$5 million to the Republic of the Comoros on standard terms.

August 1, 1978

. - 49 - APPENDIX I

FEDERAL ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF THE COMOROS

FIRST HIGHWAY PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

Related Documents and Data Available in Project File

A. GENERAL REPORTS AND STUDIES ON THE SECTOR AND SUBSECTOR

A.1 World Bank Group - "The ", Report No. 1626a-COM, July 26, 1977.

B. GENERAL REPORTS AND CENTER STUDIES RELATING TO TBE PROJECT

B.1 SECMO - Preliminary Engineering Study of Nioumakele Circular Road, November 1974, 4 volumes.

B.2 UNDP - Review of Preliminary Engineering Study of Nioumakele Circular Road.

B.3 SECMO - Preliminary Engineering Study of Hoani-Miringoni Road, November 1974, 2 volumes.

B.4 BCEOM - Preliminary Engineering Study of Fomboni-Hoani Road, November 1972, 2 volumes.

B.5 Bureau pour le Developpement de la Production Agricole, Etude de l'Amenagement de la presqu'ile de Nioumakele, 1971.

B.6 Ministere de Developpement Rural, Etude d'Identification du Projet de Developpement Economique Integre du Nioumakele a Anjouan propose au financement des Nations Unies, 1974.

C. SELECTED WORKING PAPERS, TABLES, DRAWINGS AND MAPS PREPARED BY BANK STAFF OR ITS CONSULTANTS

C.1 Calculation of Economic Benefit/Cost Tables.

C.2 Terms of Reference for Feasibility and Detailed Engineering Studies - Fomboni-Miringoni-Nioumachoua Road.

C.3 Terms of Reference for the Nioumakele Integrated Rural Devel- opment Preinvestment Study.

August 1978

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