U.S.-Soviet Nuclear

first-strike capability

Europe U.S. second-strike capability

Europe U.S. Soviet Union Mutually Assured Destruction

second-strike capability second-strike capability

?

Europe U.S. Soviet Union Game of Chicken

Red

Give in Stand firm socially optimal equilibrium Give in 3, 3 2 , 4

Blue equilibrium

Stand firm 4 , 2 1 , 1 Blue

Stand Give in firm Red Red

Stand Stand Give in firm Give in firm

(3,3) (2,4) (4,2) (1,1) Evolution of U.S. Nuclear Policy

theory of deterrence

Mutually Assured Nuclear Utilization Destruction Theory

credibility? Massive Flexible Retaliation Response

retaliatory policy

second-strike capability

first-strike capability

?

Europe U.S. Soviet Union U.S. National Security Strategy

(September 2002)

We are attentive to the possible renewal of old patterns of great power competition. Several potential great powers are now in the midst of internal transition—most importantly , , and . In all three cases, recent developments have encouraged our hope that a truly global consensus about basic principles is slowly taking shape….

The must and will maintain the capability to defeat any attempt by an enemy—whether a or non-state actor—to impose its will on the United States, our allies, or our friends. We will maintain the forces sufficient to support our obligations, and to defend freedom. Our forces will be strong enough to dissuade potential adversaries from pursuing a build-up in hopes of surpassing, or equaling, the power of the United States. P(counterbalance) relative power Balance of Power Theory and American Primacy U.S. National Security Strategy

(December 2017)

A central continuity in history is the contest for power. The present time period is no different.

After being dismissed as a phenomenon of an earlier century, great power competition returned. China and Russia began to reassert their influence regionally and globally. Today, they are fielding military capabilities designed to deny America access in times of crisis and to contest our ability to operate freely in critical commercial zones during peacetime. In short, they are contesting our geopolitical advantages and trying to change the international order in their favor.

Adversaries studied the American way of and began investing in capabilities that targeted our strengths and sought to exploit perceived weaknesses…. Such capabilities contest what was until recently U.S. dominance across the land, air, maritime, space, and cyberspace domains.