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The Kiwi That Roared: Nuclear-Free New Zealand in a Nuclear-Armed World

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The Kiwi That Roared: Nuclear-Free New Zealand in a Nuclear-Armed World Wade Huntley THE KIWI THAT ROARED: NUCLEAR-FREE NEW ZEALAND IN A NUCLEAR-ARMED WORLD by Wade Huntley Dr. Wade Huntley is Program Director for Asia/Pacific Security at the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in Berkeley, California, where he produces the Northeast Asian Peace and Security Network’s Daily Report (www.nautilus.org). He has an article in the March 1996 issue of International Studies Quarterly and is working on a book based on his doctoral dissertation, “The Citizen and the Sword: Security and Democracy in the Liberal State.” The University of California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation provided support for research on this article. n July 14, 1984, New policy was widely criticized as a evance to larger democracies, is that Zealand elected its fourth frivolous moral exercise indulging a mass public is ill-suited to make O Labour government and vocal anti-nuclear activists and play- wise and prudent decisions regard- thus brought into effect its policy de- ing on an impassioned and unin- ing state security. Recent research claring the country “nuclear free,” formed public, while needlessly on this subject indicates that popu- which included prohibiting port entry jeopardizing the country’s national lar opinion is not as volatile and in- by any ships either under nuclear interests and sacrificing its ANZUS coherent, nor its effects on security power or carrying nuclear weapons.1 alliance relationship with the United policy as pernicious, as once The government’s commitment to States.3 This judgment is rooted in thought. However, many of these this policy reached a moment of truth two converging claims. The first is tendencies obtain only because the the following January, when it denied that a small state can find security public remains largely uninformed a U.S. request for a visit by the USS only by enlisting the protection of a and inactive, and relatively unimpor- Buchanan.2 This decision led ulti- larger (and, if it is lucky, benevolent) tant in decisionmaking processes.6 mately to U.S. suspension of its de- state’s power.4 By this reasoning, the Hence, advocacy of greater democ- fense commitments to New Zealand nuclear age has not changed this cir- ratization of security and foreign under the ANZUS (Australia/New cumstance; rather, nuclear threats policymaking resting on these con- Zealand/United States) alliance induce small states to seek shelter clusions does not extend to approval treaty, and a breach in political rela- under a nuclear state’s deterrent of popular movements, whose aims tions between the two countries yet “umbrella” (if not to acquire nuclear to “activate” the public and effect to be fully mended. weapons themselves).5 Thus, disrup- drastic and immediate policy Establishment of the nuclear-free tion of the ANZUS alliance was per- changes are still regarded with wide- policy was the crowning achieve- ceived by many to expose and spread trepidation. ment of the country’s anti-nuclear endanger New Zealand by definition. This article addresses these issues peace movement. Accordingly, the The second claim, also of rel- by assessing the New Zealand The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 1 Wade Huntley nuclear-free policy within a “realist” to conduct competently their foreign dinate domestic preferences to inter- framework of thinking about inter- relations when security and foreign national necessity.”12 This pressure national relations and foreign policy.7 policy decisionmaking is subject to imposes itself particularly on small Adopting realist assumptions about popular influence. This finding also states, whose relative impotence power, interests, and security allows indicates how elements of complex begets an even greater sensitivity to putting the nuclear-free policy to the interdependence among nuclear- international conditions.13 “strongest test.” The article first out- armed states provide unique oppor- Waltz explicitly notes that his lines the core realist concern for tunities for non-nuclear small states theory is intended to explain inter- threats to security and autonomy. It to pursue their interests by remain- national outcomes, not foreign next traces the history of threat per- ing non-nuclear. In turn, this result policy decisionmaking.14 Given this ception in New Zealand, indicating brings into question the conventional focus, a realist account of how states why by the 1980s the prospect of view that small states can find secu- pursue security and choose allies global nuclear war constituted the rity only in alliances with larger requires certain refinements to most serious threat to New powers, and indicates instead how Waltz’s basic premises, such as those Zealand’s security. The article de- prudent consideration of their inter- provided by Stephen Walt. Walt ar- scribes how the nuclear-free policy ests can induce smaller states to gues that states seek to protect them- sought to employ symbolic action as make arms control, disarmament, selves “against threats rather than a power resource to induce nuclear- and nonproliferation a priority. against power alone.” Determining armed states to adopt more stable threats requires also considering nuclear weapons policies, and to ad- INTERNATIONAL REALISM “geographic proximity, offensive vance goals of nuclear disarmament Despite the centrality of the con- capabilities and perceived inten- and nonproliferation more broadly. It 15 cept of “power” in realist analysis, tions.” A state making realist se- then analyzes whether, with this in- curity choices is then responding to tention, the nuclear-free policy con- its meaning remains complex and ambiguous. Realist definitions of the overall distribution of threats, stituted a “realistic” response to the determined by the distribution of threats New Zealanders perceived power thus tend to be broad and en- compassing: for Hans Morgenthau, power mediated by the other factors at that time. Lastly, the article com- Walt identifies.16 pares the nuclear-free policy to the power means “man’s control over main available alternative: maintain- the minds and actions of other men”; This logic extends to alliance ing the ANZUS alliance in its tradi- for Kenneth Waltz, power is “the choices. Whereas Waltz expects tional form. Comparison of the ability of a state to affect the behav- states to “flock to the weaker side,” 9 efficacy of the nuclear-free approach ior of other states.” Other core as- Walt argues that “states may balance to that of working towards the same sumptions of realism follow from by allying with other strong states if ends through ANZUS reveals impor- this conception. States are viewed as a weaker power is more dangerous tant ways in which nuclear weapons sovereign entities living in a Hob- for other reasons.” Thus, Walt offers considerations can affect strategies besian anarchy that, as Waltz empha- “balance of threat theory as a better of alliance choice for smaller, non- sizes, seek to use power to preserve alternative than balance of power 10 nuclear states. their security and autonomy. To- theory” in accounting for the factors ward this end, strong states wishing states consider in making alliance The article concludes that New to “balance” the power of even stron- choices.17 The following sections Zealand’s nuclear-free policy largely ger neighbors seek alliances with apply this formulation to the evolu- “passes the test” of political real- smaller states that can help them. tion of threat perception in New ism—surprisingly so, given the ide- Toward the same end, smaller states Zealand, adoption of the nuclear-free alistic aims of its strongest welcome the solicitation, and “if policy, and changing attitudes to- 8 advocates. The capacity of a popu- they are free to choose, flock to the ward the ANZUS alliance. larly-inspired policy to pass such a weaker side, for it is the stronger side test has important implications for which threatens them.”11 Impor- addressing the prevalent skepticism tantly, the severity of these concerns about the capacity of democracies “leads us to expect states to subor- 2 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall 1996 Wade Huntley THREAT ASSESSMENT IN security orientation is an example of ness was the perceived absence of NEW ZEALAND a nation bending domestic prefer- serious regional threats, which came ences to external necessity, in accord to be a consensus view in security Of the mediating factors identified with realist expectations. debates and a staple premise in De- by Walt, the most consistent impact The end of World War II and ac- fence Reviews from the late 1970s on threat perception in New Zealand onward. This conclusion marked a has been the country’s enormous cession to ANZUS did not end changes in New Zealand’s security virtual reversal of nineteenth century geographic distance from virtually judgments of the bearing of geogra- everything else in the world.18 In environment and perceptions of threat. As Japan became integrated phy on threat perception. Whereas early years this distance bred not iso- regional isolation had been origi- lation but a profound sense of the into U.S. security structures, and perception of Japan as a threat nally seen as a source of vulnerabil- vulnerability and indefensibility of ity, by the 1980s most had come to 19 abated, threat perception focused in- small South Pacific islands. But- 26 creasingly on the Soviet Union; thus, see it as a source of protection. Of tressing this perception of vulner- course, geography itself had not ability were New Zealand’s New Zealand’s 1957 Defence Re- view concluded, “The threat arises changed; threat perception had continuing deep links to Great Brit- evolved in response to continuing ain, not only as its dominant trading today from the world-wide activities 22 changes in the distribution of capa- partner, but also for protection of of the Communist bloc.” However, awareness of a regional dimension bilities and avowed intentions of shipping routes more generally.
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