PAKISTAN AT THE CROSSROADS RELIGION, CULTURE, AND PUBLIC LIFE RELIGION, CULTURE, AND PUBLIC LIFE Series Editor: Karen Barkey Th e resurgence of religion calls for careful analysis and constructive criticism of new forms of intolerance, as well as new approaches to tolerance, respect, mutual understanding, and accommodation. In order to promote serious scholarship and informed debate, the Institute for Religion, Culture, and Public Life and Columbia University Press are sponsoring a book series devoted to the investigation of the role of religion in society and culture today. Th is series includes works by scholars in religious studies, po liti cal science, history, cultural anthropology, economics, social psychology, and other allied fi elds whose work sustains multidisciplinary and comparative as well as transnational analyses of historical and contempo- rary issues. Th e series focuses on issues related to questions of diff erence, identity, and practice within local, national, and international contexts. Special attention is paid to the ways in which religious traditions encourage confl ict, violence, and intolerance and also support human rights, ecumenical values, and mutual under- standing. By mediating alternative methodologies and diff erent religious, social, and cultural traditions, books published in this series will open channels of communication that facilitate critical analysis. For a complete list of the books in this series, see page 347–348. PAKISTAN AT THE CROSSROADS DOMESTIC DYNAMICS AND EXTERNAL PRESSURES CHRISTOPHE JAFFRELOT EDITOR COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS ■ NEW YORK Columbia University Press Publishers Since 1893 New York Chichester, West Sussex cup . columbia . edu Copyright © 2016 Columbia University Press All rights reserved Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data Pakistan at the crossroads : domestic dynamics and external pressures / Christophe Jaff relot, (ed.). pages ; cm.—(Religion, culture, and public life) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-231-17306-3 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN 978-0-231-54025-4 (e- book) 1. Pakistan— Politics and government. 2. Pakistan— Foreign relations. I. Jaff relot, Christophe, editor. II. Series: Religion, culture, and public life. DS389.P34264 2016 954.9105'3— dc23 2015024699 Columbia University Press books are printed on permanent and durable acid- free paper. Th is book is printed on paper with recycled content. Printed in the United States of America c 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Cover design: Martin Hinze References to websites (URLs) were accurate at the time of writing. Neither the author nor Columbia University Press is responsible for URLs that may have expired or changed since the manuscript was prepared. CONTENTS Ac know ledg ments vii Introduction: Pakistan, the Interface State 1 Christophe Jaff relot PART I: THE DOMESTIC SCENE 1 Th e Military and Democracy 23 Aqil Shah 2 Th e Operational Dynamics of Po liti cal Parties in Pakistan 62 Mohammad Waseem 3 Th e Judiciary as a Po liti cal Actor 89 Philip Oldenburg 4 Turmoil in the Frontier 121 Mariam Abou Zahab 5 Internal Security Issues in Pakistan: Prospects of Police and Law Enforcement Reform 136 Hassan Abbas 6 Pakistan’s Economy: Domestic Dissent and Foreign Reliance 165 Shahid Javed Burki and Adnan Naseemullah PART II: THE INTERNATIONAL DIMENSIONS 7 Pakistan– Afghanistan Relations Since 2001: Th ere Are No Endgames 191 Avinash Paliwal 8 U.S.– Pakistan Relations Under Obama: Resilience of Clientelism? 219 Christophe Jaff relot 9 Pakistan– China Symbiotic Relations 279 Farah Jan and Serge Granger 10 Pakistan Between Saudi Arabia and Iran: Islam in the Politics and Economics of Western Asia 301 Sana Haroon List of Contributors 335 Index 339 VI | CONTENTS AC KNOW LEDG MENTS his collection of essays draws from two conferences that were or ga nized T at Columbia University thanks to the support of the Alliance Pro- gram (Columbia University, Sciences Po, Polytechnique, and Paris 1— Sorbonne). Th ese meetings were hosted by the Center for Democracy, Toleration, and Religion, now a part of the Institute for Religion, Culture, and Public Life (IRCPL). Th ese meetings would not have been possible without the personal involvement of Alfred Stepan, who engaged with the participants in the most stimulating way on both occasions. Melissa Van, assistant director of IRCPL, played a key role in the or gani za tion of these conferences and in the fi nalization of the book. Karen Barkey, the successor of Al Stepan at the helm of the IRCPL, and Walid Hammam, her assistant director, subsequently made the publication of this book possible. Last but not least, the formatting of this volume owes much to Maryam Mastoor, whose dedication to the cause of scholarship impressed me when she worked at the Centre de Recherches Internationales (CERI), at Sciences Po, my alma mater in Paris, as an intern. PAKISTAN AT THE CROSSROADS INTRODUCTION PAKISTAN, THE INTERFACE STATE Christophe Jaff relot akistan has been characterized by scholars as, among other things, an P“ideological state” (like Israel), because of the po liti cal reinterpretation of Islam by its founding fathers, including Muhammad Ali Jinnah; a “garrison state,” because of the key role of the military; and as a “terror state,” because of the rise of radical Islamic movements in its midst. But its trajec- tory may be best captured by another, encompassing, feature not contradic- tory with the qualifi cations mentioned above: its ability to navigate at the interface of domestic and external dynamics, which makes relevant two other formulas— those of “client state” and “pivotal state.” Every country strategizes at the crossroads of the national and the international—to say nothing of the transnational—to maximize its re- sources. But in the case of Pakistan, this interaction has reached uncommon proportions, given its geographic size, its population (almost 200 million people), and its nuclear status. Countries of the same league are generally less dependent on outside support and less porous to foreign infl uences— be they religious, cultural, or economic. Th e root cause of this extraversion lays in the Pakistani feeling of vulner- ability that crystallized vis- à- vis India as early as 1947— a sentiment that was reinforced by the then hostile attitude of Af ghan i stan. Subjected to en- circlement, Pakistan looked immediately for external support. Th e United States was the fi rst country Pakistan turned to, but it also made overtures to China and Middle Eastern countries, especially when Washington dis- tanced itself from Islamabad. Although this policy was associated primarily with the army, whose quest for foreign, sophisticated military equipment knew almost no limit, civilian politicians rallied around the same strategy, and not only for secu- rity reasons. Among other things, the po liti cal personnel— which drew mostly from a tiny elite group— found that fi nancial support from the out- side was a con ve nient way to obviate a modern taxation policy, one which their milieu and key supporters would have resented. Th e po liti cal economy rationale of the army’s extraversion cannot be ignored either, as the Paki- stani military does not pay taxes either and has developed business activi- ties. Th e Pakistani army, therefore, enjoys a much better lifestyle than most of the rest of society. Civilians and military offi cers also converged in the use of (sometimes foreign) mujahideen in the waging of jihad in Af ghan i stan and Kashmir— the favorite tactic of the army over the last three decades. Z. A. Bhutto sup- ported Hekmatyar and Rabbani against the Kabul regime as early as the 1970s. Th is strategy gained momentum under Zia during the war against the Soviets. But Benazir Bhutto was prime minister of Pakistan when the army supported the Taliban and when Islamabad recognized the Taliban regime in 1996. And neither Benazir nor Nawaz Sharif had objections toward the support of foreign mujahideen in Kashmir. Th e promotion of external ties by the military and civilians for security and socioeconomic reasons refl ects the growing commonality of their worldview and (more or less illicit) interests. Th eir elite groups form a closely knit establishment comprising a few hundreds of families. Indeed, the dif- ference between the most authoritarian phases of civilian rules and the most moderate forms of military dictatorship has tended to diff er in degrees more than in nature over the last forty years. As a result, Pakistanis may look for alternatives to their rulers of the day not among the usual suspects any more (the dominant opposition party or a new Chief of Army Staff ) but out of this circle entirely. eyTh may turn more to the judiciary, parties that have not been tried yet, and the Islamist forces that do not articulate a discourse of social justice inadvertently. Are these developments the indications of even more domestic tensions in a country already on the verge of civil war in regions like Baluchistan and Karachi? And what part can external variables play in this context? Th ese are some of the questions this volume tries to explore. PAKISTAN: A CLIENT STATE OR A PIVOTAL STATE? FEAR OF ENCIRCLEMENT Th e complex of Pakistani leaders vis- à- vis India emerged as early as 1947, partly because they were convinced that those who ruled in New Delhi had not resigned themselves to Partition and craved for what the Hindu nation- 2 | INTRODUCTION alists called Akhand Bharat— a (re)unifi ed India.1 Jinnah, in a hand written note, expressed these views in 1947–1948: 1. Th e Congress has accepted the present Settlements with mental reservations. 2. Th ey now proclaim their determination to restore the unity of India as soon as possible. 3. With that determination they will naturally be regarded as avowed Enemies of Pakistan State working for its overthrow.2 Th e need to defend Pakistan was particularly acute among the security apparatus.