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Phd DISSERTATION COMBATING TERRORISM IN PAKISTAN: POST 9/11 - A NEOCLASSICAL REALIST PERSPECTIVE PhD DISSERTATION This Dissertation is submitted to National Defence University, Islamabad in partial fulfillment for the degree of PhD in International Relations By ARSHAD MAHMOOD NDU-IR/PhD-13/S-023 Supervisor PROF. DR. SHAHEEN AKHTAR Department of International Relations Faculty of Contemporary Studies National Defence University, Islamabad Pakistan, 2019 ii Student’s Declaration This is to certify that this dissertation titled “Combating Terrorism in Pakistan: Post 9/11 – A Neoclassical Realist Perspective” submitted by the undersigned is accepted in its present form by Department of International Relations, National Defence University, Islamabad, Pakistan. It is based on my own research work and has not been submitted to any other institution for any other degree. ______ Dec 2019 Arshad Mahmood i Certificate of Completion It is hereby recommended that the dissertation submitted by Arshad Mahmood titled “Combating Terrorism in Pakistan: Post 9/11 – A Neoclassical Realist Perspective” has been accepted in the partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of PhD in the discipline of International Relations. ___________ Supervisor ii Dedication I dedicate my work to those Pakistanis who laid their lives for the greater cause of fighting the menace of terrorism and confronting the obscurantist mindset, considered as an obstacle in the way of progressive and prosperous Pakistan. Table of Contents Ser Subject Page No 1. Introduction 1 Statement of the Problem 8 Objective of the Study 8 Significance of the Study 9 Theoretical Framework 9 Literature Review 13 The Research Design and Methodology 25 Scope and Limitations 26 Organization of the Study 27 2. Chapter 1 - Theoretical Framework 28 1.1 Defining Neoclassical Realism 28 1.2 Understanding Counterterrorism in Pakistan through Assumptions 34 of Neoclassical Realism 3. Chapter 2 – Terrorism and Counterterrorism in Pakistan: An 46 Evolutionary Overview 2.1 Terrorism as Global Phenomenon – Perspectives on its Existence 48 2.2 Causes of Extremism and Terrorism in Pakistan 56 2.3 Evolution of Post 9/11 Pakistan’s CT Strategy 59 4. Chapter 3 – Systemic Forces and Pakistan’s Counterterrorism 72 Strategy 3.1 Evolution of Security Dominated Asymmetric US-Pakistan 73 Relations 3.2 9/11 – A Strategic Challenge to Pakistan’s National Security 77 3.3 Lack of Trust in Event Driven US – Pakistan Relations 82 3.4 US and Strategic Stability in South Asia 89 3.5 The Impact of Systemic Forces: A Neoclassical Realist Explanation 91 5. Chapter 4 – Regional Level Dynamics in Pakistan’s Counterterrorism 94 Responses 4.1 Indian Factor and Pakistan’s CT Policy 94 4.2 Afghanistan Factor and Pakistan’s CT Policy 107 4.3 The Relevance of Neoclassical Realism 118 6. Chapter 5 – Impact of Domestic Variables in Shaping Pakistan’s CT 120 Policy 5.1 Ideological Moorings 120 5.2 Psyche of Leadership 125 5.3 Domestic Sentiment – Internal Polarization 129 5.4 Capacity Issues of Civilian Security/ Law Enforcing Institutions 131 5.5 Counterterrorism State Structures: Administrative and Judicial 132 5.6 Interplay of Domestic with the Regional and Systemic Factors 134 7. Chapter 6 – A Framework for Combating Terrorism in Pakistan 140 6.1 An Appraisal of Systemic Realities and Domestic Constraints 140 6.2 Weaknesses in the Existing CT Strategy of Pakistan 144 6.3 Lessons Derived from Selected CT Case Studies 148 iv Ser Subject Page No 6.4 Policy Recommendations 151 6.4.1 Systemic Dimension of CT Strategy 152 6.4.2 Regional Strand of CT Strategy 153 6.4.3 Domestic Reforms to Augment CT Strategy 155 6.4.3.1 Address Cognitive Variables 155 6.4.3.2 Structural Reforms 158 6.4.3.3 Constitutional and Judicial Reforms 162 8. Findings and Recommendations 165 9. Conclusion 171 10. Bibliography 178 v Acknowledgement I am grateful to Allah almighty for bestowing upon me his blessings and enabling me to complete this task which was onerous in its kind. It was revealing to evaluate foreign policy of Pakistan, characteristics of its domestic institutions and structures, while comparing these with regional constraints and systemic forces. I extend my gratitude to National Defence University management and the Department of International Relations for overall facilitation. I acknowledge with immense pleasure and reverence, the professional approach and total grasp of the subject exhibited by my worthy supervisor, Dr Shaheen Akhtar. Without her timely and candid suggestions and proficient scrutiny, I would not have been able to complete this assignment. I would also acknowledge cooperation of National Defence University library staff. It may not be fair if I forget my office staff that rendered invaluable help in formatting of draft. ______ Dec 2019 Arshad Mahmood vi Abstract The study explores dynamics of Pakistan’s Counter Terrorism (CT) strategy since 9/11 from a neoclassical realist perspective. It argues that Pakistan’s strained regional security milieu, weak civilian law enforcing and CT coordination agencies, coupled with asymmetric relationship with the US, have been shaping Pakistan’s CT policy since 9/11. Terrorist attack on mainland USA on 9/11, 2001, triggered a paradigm shift in the landscape of international and regional security having impact on Pakistan’s polity and national security. South Asia, particularly Afghanistan and Pakistan figured out prominently in the US national security objectives. US succeeded to garner international coalition and brought about tremendous pressure on Pakistan to support US war on terror against Al-Qaida and Taliban regime in Afghanistan. India seized the strategic opportunity by not only aligning with the US counter terrorism strategy in the region but offering military bases as well. This strategic move by India precipitated Pakistan’s security dilemma with two front threat scenario. US- Pakistan divergence over prosecution of war on terror impacted a comprehensive response against this menace of global, regional and domestic security. India by capitalized on anti- Pakistan international sentiment strengthened its position in Kashmir and attempted to lump freedom struggle with terrorism. Internal religious-political polarization in Pakistan, psyche of ruling elite and capacity constraints of civilian law enforcement, CT coordination agencies and prosecution and judicial institutions complicated the effective fight against terrorism at home. The external support to domestic terrorist entities destabilized Pakistan and paved way for horrific APS Peshawar carnage in December 2014. However, the event acted as a catalyst in uniting Pakistani nation and vowing to eliminate this scourge comprehensively. By 2018, Pakistan military with national support succeed in defeating terrorist groups and purged FATA of all terrorist entities. However, non-kinetic aspects of National Action Plan (NAP) merit enforcement in true letter and spirit. The study too, provides a comprehensive framework for combating terrorism in Pakistan. Key words: war on terror, terrorism, extremism, internal polarization, CT strategy, regional approach and systemic pressures. vii viii List of Abbreviations ANP Awami National Party ANSF Afghan National Security Forces APHC All Parties Hurriet Conference APS Army Public School AQ Al Qaida AQIS Al Qaida in Indian Subcontinent ASWJ Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamat BMD Ballistic Missile Defence CA Constituent Assembly CENTO Central Treaty Organization CF Coalition Forces CGS Chief of General Staff CIA Central Intelligence Agency C-in-c Commander-in-Chief CMD Credible Minimum Deterrence CPEC China Pakistan Economic Corridor CSD Cold Start Doctrine CSF Coalition Support Found CTD Counter Terrorism Department ERF Extra Regional Forces EU European Union FATA Federally Administered Tribal Area FC Frontier Corps (under military) and Frontier Constabulary (under provincial Police) FSD Full Spectrum Deterrence FSF Federal Security Force GB Gilgit Baltistan GoP Government of Pakistan GWOT Global War on Terror HQN Haqqani Network viii HuM Hizb-ul- Mujahideen or Harkat-ul- Mujahideen IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IFIs International Financial Institutions IMF International Monetary Fund IMU Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan IoK Indian Occupied Kashmir ISAF International Stabilization Assistance Force ISI Inter Services Intelligence (Pakistan’s Military Intelligence Service) ISIL Islamic State in Iraq and Levant ISIS Islamic State in Iraq and Syria the Arabic acronym is Daesh IS-K Islamic State Khurasan JA Jamat-ul-Ahrar JeM Jaish-e-Muhammad JI Jamat-e-Islami JuD Jamat-ud-Dawah JUI (F) Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazlur Rehman) KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa KSA Kingdom of Saudi Arabia LEAs Law Enforcing Agencies LeJ Lashkar-e-Jhangvi LeT Lashkar-e-Tayaba LoC Line of Control MAK Maktab Al Khidmat ME Middle East MFN Most Favoured Nation MIRVs Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicles MMA Mutahidda Majlis-e-Amal MNNA Major Non NATO Ally MQM Muhajir or Mutahidda Qaumi Movement MTCR Missile Technology Control Regime MWM Maslis Wahdat-ul-Muslimeen ix NACTA National Counter Terrorism Authority NAP National Action Plan NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NDS National Directorate of Security (Afghan Intelligence) NIEs National Intelligence Estimates NISP National Internal Security Policy NLI Northern Light Infantry NPT Nuclear Non Proliferation NRO National Reconciliation Ordinance NS Northern Scouts NSG Nuclear Supplier Group NWFP North Western Frontier Province (old name of KPK) OBL Osama Bin Laden QCG Quadrilateral Coordination
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