North Cotswold Line Transformation STRATEGIC OUTLINE BUSINESS CASE Final Issue December 2019 CONNECTING GROWING ECONOMIES HEREFORDSHIRE WORCESTERSHIRE GLOUCESTERSHIRE WARWICKSHIRE OXFORDSHIRE Page 1 Page 2 Contents Foreword Lord Faulkner 4 Scheme Summary 5 “This is an output driven scheme, Executive summary 8 seeking to radically transform and Context setting 12 extend the role the North Cotswold Strategic case 24 Line plays in meeting and stimulating Economic case 54 sustainable population and economic Financial case 68 growth across five counties stretching from the borders of Wales and the Commercial case 74 south Midlands to the western end of Management case 81 the Oxford to Cambridge Arc.” Summary and next steps 95 Page 3 Foreword from Lord Faulkner of Worcester Chair, North Cotswold Line Task Force The North Cotswold railway line between Hereford, Worcester, and Oxford plays a vital role in supporting the economies and connectivity of Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Gloucestershire, Warwickshire and Oxfordshire. As we face the increasing challenges of climate change it provides sustainable public transport helping to protect beautiful, precious and internationally important rural environments stretching from the Marches and the Malverns and the Cotswolds, the cathedral cities of Hereford and Worcester, the university city of Oxford, the Blenheim Palace World Heritage Site, and a host of attractive market towns such as Pershore, Evesham, Moreton-in-Marsh, Chipping Norton, Charlbury and Woodstock. The five counties it serves generate a combined £73 billion (2016) in Gross Value Added (GVA) to the UK economy, larger than the Greater Manchester Combined Authority area or the metropolitan authorities of the West Midlands Combined Authority. Their 2.6 million population is set to grow by 21% by the 2030s, some 558,000 people, equivalent to more than five cities the size of Worcester or three times the size of Oxford. Such a scale of change is dramatic, and will be powerfully challenging to the infrastructure supporting movement – people getting to work and education, businesses working with each other, residents accessing retail and leisure facilities, as well as the 90 million UK and internationally-based tourists trips already made across the region each year. The North Cotswold Line will need to make a yet greater contribution. Established in 2017, the North Cotswold Line Task Force is determined to drive the change needed to enable the railway to make that transformative contribution. The Task Force brings together the five county local authorities, five Local Enterprise Partnerships, the Great Western Railway, Network Rail and the Cotswold Line Promotion Group, and has had the benefit of supportive general advice from the Department for Transport and the West Midlands Rail Executive. I am grateful for their combined contributions of financial support and expertise that have enabled us to complete this Strategic Outline Business Case setting out the compelling case for change. Prepared within the guidelines of the Department for Transport’s ‘Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline’ this document forms a key step in garnering the widest support for our proposals, assembling funding for the detailed development work now required, and setting an investment and delivery programme to make change happen. Page 4 The North Cotswold Line Transformation 2 TRAINS PER HOUR BUSINESS CASE Worcestershire Cotswolds Capital Cost—£199m Oxford London New passengers—400,000 p.a. Benefit Cost Ratio—4.46 MORE REGULAR SERVICES ‘Very High Value for Money’ Great Malvern—London hourly Kidderminster—London hourly Direct & connecting from Hereford ECONOMIC BENEFITS £33m Gross Value Added p.a. Supporting over 64,000 new homes TRACK DOUBLING from 2020 to 2041 Wolvercot—Hanborough—4 miles Evesham—Pershore—5 miles FASTER JOURNEYS Hanborough—London 1 hour OXFORD METRO SERVICES Worcester — London < 2 hours Up to 4 trains per hour Hereford—London < 3 hours Hanborough—Oxford NEXT STEPS STATION WORK SOBC to Government —Oct 2019 Hanborough—2nd Platform ‘Develop’ OBC —2020/21 Pershore—2nd Platform Third Party Delivery Page 5 The North Cotswold Line The arched bridge over the expanded A4440 Worcester Southern Link Road was installed by Worcestershire County Council in July 2019 and illustrates the range of integrated transport scheme being completed across the Task Force area, with the jointly-funded County Council/Worcestershire LEP A4440 scheme enhancing access to the new Worcestershire Parkway station due to open in early 2020. Great Western Railway Intercity Express (IET) operating the 15.22 Worcester Shrub Hill to London Paddington with Worcester Cathedral in the back-drop. Introduced in 2017 the IETs form the basis of the North Cotswold Line service, offering modern passenger facilities and capacity to accommodate the major growth in patronage forecast by the rail industry and within this SOBC. Page 6 The North Cotswold Line Page 7 Executive Summary The North Cotswold Line Task Force 1. Sustainable Economic Growth — The purpose of North Cotswold Line Taskforce (NCLTF) is to radically transform and extend the role the North Cotswold Line plays in meeting and stimulating sustainable economic growth, new populations and employment and enhanced productivity across five counties stretching from the borders of Wales and the south Midlands to the western end of the Oxford to Cambridge Arc, and its contribution to addressing the developing challenges of climate change. 2. Who We Are — Chaired by Lord Faulkner of Worcester, the NCLTF is a partnership of five local authorities/transport authorities, five Local Enterprise Partnerships and the Cotswold Line Promotion Group. It is supported by attendance from the Department for Transport (DfT), West Midlands Rail Executive, Network Rail and the Great Western Railway. District Councils are engaged via sub-groups across the geography of the 5 counties. Formal Terms of Reference were agreed in July 2017. The Need 3. A Fast Growing Region — The five counties - Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Gloucestershire, Warwickshire and Oxfordshire - are set to grow on current forecasts by 368,000 people by 2030, and yet there is poor connectivity through the centre of this area by all modes of travel. 4. Poor Transport Connectivity — The core west-east road network is characterised by slow and congested single carriageway roads such as the A44 and A40. The North Cotswold Line offers only an hourly off-peak service, with some enhanced peak frequencies, and journey times are slow. Worcester to London, for example, has an end-to-end journey speed of 57 mph, and Hereford of 47 mph. This compares to the journey to London from places on the periphery: Leamington Spa 76 mph, Bath 77 mph, Swindon 84 mph, and Rugby at 99 mph. 5. Constraints on Growth—This connectivity deficit limits the economic development in Herefordshire and Worcestershire, as well as the competitive potential of the rural population in the Cotswolds. For Oxford and its world-leading University it limits the ability to attract workers and academic staff who cannot afford to live in the City itself. Page 8 Executive Summary The Case for Change 6. Assessing the Options — An enhanced service of two trains per hour on the route, with faster journeys would generate at least £33m in additional Gross Value Added each year to the UK economy, in addition to the potential for better commuter services supporting Oxford’s economic and environmental sustainability. At this stage in the scheme’s maturity options have been identified and appraised which have the potential to deliver Value for Money in the “Very High” category. 7. The Preferred Train Service — The NCLTF’s preferred option involves the provision of 2 trains per hour (TPH) between Worcester, Oxford and London Paddington (extensions of Oxford-London services) operating on a skip-stop pattern so that the optimum balance of journey time and frequency improvement can be delivered across the route. One of these services is extended to/from Great Malvern (and Hereford in some hours), and the other to/from Kidderminster. 8. Enhanced Infrastructure — To enable reliable delivery of this solution, infrastructure options have been identified that involve the reinstatement of 4 miles of double track between Wolvercot Junction (Oxford) and Hanborough Station, 5 miles between Evesham and Pershore, and second platforms at Hanborough and Pershore stations. The capital cost estimate with optimism bias applied is £199m. 9. A Compelling Business Case — More frequent, faster services will generate nearly 400,000 new passenger trips each year. The scheme will deliver a Benefit Cost Ratio of 4.46, representing ‘Very High’ value for money for the £199m investment, and £33m of new Gross Value Added (GVA) per annum to the UK economy together with 750 new jobs. 10. Supporting the Future — These infrastructure options also facilitate provision of an additional 2TPH shuttle between Hanborough and Oxford/Didcot Parkway, offering the potential for an overall 4TPH ‘metro’ style service supporting Oxford’s economic and environmental sustainability. Development of the case for this forms the key task of the NCLTF ‘Hanborough Sub-Group’, established in summer 2019. Page 9 Executive Summary Next Steps and Delivery 11. Determining the NCLTF Scheme — This Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) summarises the NCLTF’s work to complete the ‘Determine’ stage of the Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline (RNEP) process, announced by the DfT in March 2018. 12. Moving to Scheme Development — Having proactively adopted the RNEP process and received DfT encouragement to continue the scheme’s development in response to its July 2018 Market-Led Proposal (see Appendix C), the NCLTF is now seeking to move the project forward into the ‘Develop’ stage, leading towards an Outline Business Case, Single Option Report and ‘Decision to Design’ with DfT by March 2022. 13. Funding the Next Step — The NCLTF partners have identified a budget of £3m for the ‘Develop’ stage, and by way of this SOBC is asking the DfT both to accept the proposed scheme onto the Pipeline and allocate 50% of the £3m cost, with £1.5m being provided by the NCLTF’s local authority and LEP partners.