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Worcestershire Council

Worcestershire Rail Investment Strategy Supporting Development of Worcestershire’s Local Transport Plan 4

Autumn 2017

Contents

An Evidenced Rail Vision For Worcestershire 4

1. Executive Summary 7

2. Introduction 12

3. Stage 1 – Current Travel Markets, Train Services & Accessibility 15

4. Stage 2 – Review of Worcestershire’s Development Proposals 39

5. Stage 3 – Rail Industry Plans & Gap Analysis 52

6. Stage 4 – Economic Testing Of Connectivity Options 78

7. Stage 5 – The Prioritised Conditional Outputs 84

8. Stage 6 – Making It Happen 96 An Evidenced Rail Vision For Worcestershire Worcestershire is an attractive, thriving County of The Rail Industry’s Plans 566,000 people, set to grow by 47,200 new homes 2030 and 25,000 new jobs by 2025 which will result The industry forecasts up to 97% growth in in a £2.9bn growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) passenger volumes on Worcestershire routes by from £9bn to £11.9bn per annum 1. The County’s rail 2043 2 . services will not match these ambitions without signifcant earlier development and investment The industry has an emerging vision, shared in beyond that committed by the rail industry. Worcestershire, for a faster 2 trains per hour (tph) Worcestershire to service, supported by The Challenge enhancements to the North , the Great Western electrifcation scheme and new Connectivity to London is slow and of limited Intercity Express Programme (IEP) trains. frequency, with many Worcestershire passengers using the M5-M42-M40 to access better However its planning processes do not include International and Parkway services. The additional Cross Country or southbound opening of Worcestershire Parkway in early 2019 will, connectivity beyond current commitments to however, begin to address this issue by providing serve the new Worcestershire Parkway in 2019, and enhanced accessibility to the North Cotswold Line its long-distance and local services are planned and – Nottingham . by different Rail routes and multiple However, other strategic UK-wide Cross Country operators. Worcestershire seeks the services will continue to pass through but not call support of the industry in planning Worcestershire’s in Worcestershire, limiting connectivity to the rail services in a fully integrated manner, refecting economies of South-West, North-West and North- our vision of “One-Economy-One Railway” for East . Worcestershire.

The growing University City of Worcester suffers Addressing capacity restrictions caused by the poor connectivity due to restricted rail County’s several single line sections and outdated , outdated signalling and limited signalling systems is being considered by Network historic investment in its 2 stations. Rail but with no committed timescales. The County is a key partner in the newly-established North and (and after Cotswold Line Task Force which seeks to bring introduction of the new electrifcation timetable forward capacity upgrades on this route and in the in May 2018) are well served by local services into Worcester area; the evidence underpinning our Birmingham, but have limited connectivity to Vision set out in this Strategy strongly supports the London or southwards. These services also face work of the Task Force. challenges of overcrowding, particularly during peak periods - both issues can have a profound effect in Electrifcation of the -Birmingham and suppressing demand. , capable of increasing capacity for new services for Worcestershire under previous (DfT) consideration, is not now included in active industry plans following

1 Worcestershire Local Enterprise Partnership, Strategic Economic Plan; March 2014 2 Long Term Planning Process, Long Distance Market Study; October 2013 4 the Government’s July 2017 announcement of the Worcestershire is keen to gain from new UK-wide cancellation of major UK rail electrifcation schemes, journeys offered by HS2 from 2026 and 2033, and proposing future reliance on ‘bi-mode’ electric/ all of which will, however, be by connection at diesel powered trains. Alternative ways of increasing Birmingham Curzon St. or interchange (See section connectivity and capacity will therefore need to be 5.9.2 for further information regarding HS2). found on this corridor. This Strategy thus focuses on new, direct Worcestershire’s Evidenced Proposals connectivity on the ‘Classic Network’, connectivity being achieved via local and long-distance rail Worcestershire County Council (WCC) has prepared services, to both regional and UK-wide economies this Rail Investment Strategy to evidence its in order to promote the County’s sustainable economic case – in terms of GVA and jobs – for economic growth and success (the concept of “One enhanced County rail connectivity. Economy / One Railway”). The Strategy proposes 4 overarching Conditional Infrastructure To Support Outputs for rail service development which would Worcestershire’s Vision deliver £50.42m GVA per annum, and 1,151 new jobs in the County 3: The Conditional Outputs also cover key aspirational infrastructure schemes essential to facilitate this • 2 Trains Per Hour Worcester-- new connectivity, including: Paddington – £21.22m GVA p.a. and 475 new jobs; • North Cotswold Line Capacity Upgrade;

• 1 Train Per Hour Kidderminster-Droitwich • Worcester Area And To Stoke Spa-Worcester-Paddington – £13.8m GVA p.a. Works Capacity Upgrade; and 273 new jobs; • New Car Park Capacity And/Or New • Calls At Worcestershire Parkway In Bristol- Stations; And Plymouth-Newcastle Services – £9.6m GVA p.a. and 250 new jobs; • Worcester Shrub Hill Station Regeneration;

• Regional Service Between Kidderminster/ • Electrifcation Of Both The Bristol To Bromsgrove, Worcester And Birmingham And Snow Hill Lines. 4 Spa, And Bristol – £5.73m GVA p.a. and 153 new jobs.

3 JMP, Worcestershire RIS GVA Analysis: Wider Impacts Note; June 2016 4 Although in light of the recent Secretary of State for Transport’s announcement putting on hold all future electrifcation schemes, these Conditional Outputs will need to be carefully considered with regards to delivery. 5 Taking The Vision Forward • DfT and Network Rail on the Long Term Planning Process to 2023 and 2043; Worcestershire recognises that its aspirations require planning within the medium and long-term • Connect on its ‘Powering the rail industry investment framework to 2023 and Midlands Engine’ Transport Strategy (ensuring 2043. Worcestershire’s Rail Vision is fully integrated with the Midlands Connect proposals); and This Vision will thus form the basis for the County’s active and ambitious engagement with stakeholders • Neighbouring Local Enterprise Partnerships and partners including: and local authorities with common interests.

• The North Cotswold Line Task Force on ways to quickly develop and deliver the shared Joint Vision for the North Cotswold Line;

• DfT on investment within industry Control Period 6 (2019-2024) and upon re-franchising specifcations;

6 1. Executive Summary 1.1 In 2016 Worcestershire County Council between Redditch and Birmingham (during commissioned SLC Rail to develop a peak periods) and between Worcester – Worcestershire Rail Investment Strategy Bromsgrove – Birmingham (all day). (WRIS), to form part of the County’s fourth Local Transport Plan (2017 – 2030). The WRIS 1.4 Stage 2: Change In Worcestershire is split into 5 key stages, designed to; baseline The Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) produced the current rail situation in the County; by the Worcestershire Local Enterprise assess the scale of growth expected; identify Partnership (WLEP) sets out ambitious growth gaps and solutions; model the economic targets for the County. By 2025 the SEP benefts of these solutions, and; prioritise the proposes the creation of 25,000 new jobs, investment to achieve maximum value for construction of 47,200 new dwellings by 2030 money. and an increase in GVA from £9bn to £11.8bn 1.2 Investing in the rail network of the County per annum. This growth is focused around is important in order to achieve sustained the rail corridors in the three areas of Wyre economic growth, increased connectivity Forest, Bromsgrove & Redditch and South and reduced reliance on motor vehicles. The Worcestershire. Further housing development outputs of this WRIS can be used to lobby is expected to ‘overspill’ from the Greater the rail industry for prioritised improvements Birmingham housing allocations and, although up to 2043. A summary of the Strategy’s numbers are still to be quantifed, it is thought fndings is found below. around 37,900 new houses will need to be shared between the nine adjacent local 1.3 Stage 1: Baseline authorities (including Worcestershire) by 2031. Key policy documents for the region (e.g. the Worcestershire is crossed by two nationally SEP, WCC’s LTP3 and the LTP) important rail lines – the North Cotswold all cite the benefts of prioritising rail travel as line from London Paddington to Worcester, a means to achieve sustainable growth. and and the Bristol to Birmingham Line. Local services operate 1.5 Stage 3: Rail Industry Planning to Birmingham along the Kidderminster, Bromsgrove and Redditch routes. Passengers The rail industry is currently engaged in its make 9.2 million trips to and from the ‘Long Term Planning Process’ which looks to County’s stations each year (2015/16) 5 and shape a vision for the network to Network Rail is projecting this to grow by 97% 2043. In parallel Network Rail (NR) is working by 2043 6 (against a 2013 baseline). However, to defne its specifc investment proposals for direct connectivity from Worcestershire ‘Control Period 6’ (CP6) – 2019 to 2024 – and is currently poor. Cross Country services various rail franchises are being renewed. between South-West England, Birmingham If the recommended outputs from this WRIS and the North-West and North-East pass are to be realised their development will through but do not call in Worcestershire, and need to align with these industry processes. the County’s network suffers from various There also exists the opportunity to capitalise constraints such as mechanical signalling and on benefts from HS2 over the same period. single line tracks which have a direct impact Finally, this Long Term Planning Process on train service timetables. Overcrowding presents the opportunity for the County on services is also a problem, particularly

5 ORR Estimates of Station Usage; November 2016 6 Network Rail Long Term Planning Process, Long Distance Market Study; October 2013 7 to lobby for, and secure, key infrastructure • To South-West, North-West And improvements during the industry’s Control North-East England – with calls at Period 6 2019-2024 and beyond that remove Worcestershire Parkway in Bristol- existing bottlenecks such as mechanical Manchester and Plymouth-Newcastle signalling and single line sections of railway. services: £9.6m GVA p.a. and 250 jobs;

1.6 Stage 4: Connectivity – Economic Tests • Between Worcestershire And Cheltenham, Gloucester And Combining the fndings of stages 1 – 3 of the Bristol – with a regional service via WRIS led to the identifcation of 10 new train Kidderminster-Worcester Shrub Hill service options enhancing Worcestershire’s and/or Bromsgrove-Worcestershire connectivity with other UK economies. These Parkway offering up to £5.73m GVA and were modelled by consultants SYSTRA using 153 new jobs. a bespoke economic model consistent with that used by Network Rail in its 2013 Markets If fully realised, the combined benefts of Studies. This model produces a forecast of the ‘Conditional Outputs’ would generate both GVA increase and jobs creation resulting a total of £50.42M GVA per annum for from improvements to generalised journey Worcestershire and would create 1,151 new time and the enhanced business to business jobs. activity generated by the new services. 1.8 The Conditional Outputs also cover key 1.7 Stage 5 – Conditional Outputs aspirational schemes essential to facilitate this new connectivity, including: The new service options are termed ‘Conditional Outputs’, as used by the rail • North Cotswold Line Capacity industry in its Long Term Planning Process Upgrade – Doubling of part or all of (LTPP). These are later shown in Table 1.1. the Norton - and The County’s new rail connectivity and - Junction sections relationship to other UK economies that (as now championed by the North would be released by these Conditional Cotswold Line Task Force); Outputs is shown at Figures 1.2 and 1.3. • Worcester Area And Droitwich Spa The Conditional Outputs that would deliver To Stoke Works Capacity Upgrade the greatest uplifts in GVA and new jobs 7 for – Providing additional capacity for the County are enhanced rail connectivity: services passing through Shrub Hill and Foregate Street and doubling of • Between Worcestershire And London the Droitwich-Stoke Works single line And The – along the (together with re-signalling); North Cotswold Line with a 2 trains per hour and faster service: £19.04m GVA • New Car Park Capacity And/Or New p.a. and 421 new jobs, with a further Stations – Addressing the structural £2.18m GVA and 54 jobs via connections shortfall of current car parking capacity at Oxford to East-West Rail to a total of and providing capacity for up to 100% £21.22m and 475 new jobs; passenger growth by 2043, either at existing or new stations; • Between /Kidderminster And London Paddington – extending Paddington-Worcester services to Droitwich Spa and Kidderminster: £13.8m GVA p.a. and 273 new jobs;

7 Data sourced from JMP, Worcestershire RIS GVA Analysis: Wider Impacts Note; June 2016 8 • Worcester Shrub Hill Station • North Cotswold Line (NCL) Task Force Regeneration – enabling Shrub Hill to – to ensure effcient development support both current train services and delivery of the substantive and new services proposed in this Rail train timetable and infrastructure Investment Strategy and leading to a improvements proposed for the NCL; step-change in economic regeneration of the Shrub Hill Opportunity Zone and • Midlands Connect – to ensure that the areas to the east of the City Centre; Worcestershire’s Rail Vision is fully integrated with, and supported by, • Electrifcation – Of both the Bristol to the evolving “Powering the Midlands Birmingham and Snow Hill Lines. Engine” Strategy;

1.9 Ticketing And Fares • Committed Industry Schemes – to ensure schemes such as Great Western A further Conditional Output also suggests Main Line electrifcation are delivered; revision of the County’s highly complex ticketing and fares structure to refect both • Prospective Industry Schemes – to existing train services and those proposed in seek industry commitment to deliver this Strategy. schemes such as electrifcation and North Cotswold Line Capacity upgrade; 1.10 Next Steps • Worcestershire Rail Investment To realise a rail network that is capable Strategy’s Conditional Outputs – to of supporting Worcestershire’s growth include the County’s Conditional ambitions, WCC and WLEP will need to Outputs in CP6 2019-2024 and Long engage with Government, the rail industry, Term Industry Planning Process. politicians and other stakeholders across fve areas:

9 Table 1.1 – Worcestershire Rail Investment Strategy Conditional Outputs

Worcestershire Rail Investment Strategy Ref GVA Jobs When Conditional Outputs NCL 1 Provision of 2 trains per hour between Worcester and London £19.04m 421 CP6 Paddington, with 1 train per hour having fast journey time of 1 hour 50 minutes or less NCL 2 Provision of 1 train per hour between Kidderminster and £13.8m 273 CP6 London Paddington via Droitwich Spa, Worcester and Oxford NCL 3 Provision of additional infrastructure capacity on the North - - CP6 Cotswold Line to support a 2 trains per hour Worcester to London Paddington service WAB 1 Provision of a new direct train service between Kidderminster, £5.73m* 153* CP6 Worcester, Cheltenham Spa, Gloucester, Bristol Parkway and Bristol Temple Meads WAB 2 Provision of new direct train service between Bromsgrove and £5.66m* 145* CP6 Worcestershire Parkway, Cheltenham Spa, Gloucester, Bristol Parkway and Bristol Temple Meads WAB 3 Provision of additional infrastructure capacity at Worcester - - CP6 and Droitwich Spa – Bromsgrove to support train service growth and development WPK 1 Introduction of calls at Worcestershire Parkway in the hourly £4.4m** 108** CP6 Cross Country Bristol to Manchester service WPK 2 Introduction of calls at Worcestershire Parkway in the hourly £9.6m** 250** CP6 Cross Country Plymouth to Newcastle service ELC 1 Electrifcation of the Bristol to Birmingham Line, Snow Hill - - CP6/7 8 Lines and the North Cotswold Line to support train service growth and development ACS 1 Provision of additional car park capacity at existing stations - - CP5/6 and/or new stations to accommodate forecast passenger growth to 2043 WOS 1 Worcester Shrub Hill Station Regeneration to support current - - CP5/6 and proposed new train services and frequencies to London and South-West England TKT 1 Cross-industry review of ticketing and fares structures to - - CP5/6 match new and developing train services - GVA/jobs value of East-West connectivity at Oxford £2.18m 54 CP6 TOTAL GVA AND JOBS £50.42m 1151 * An ‘either / or’ option ** An ‘either / or’ option CP5 2014-2019 / CP6 2019-2024 / CP7 2024-2029

8 CP6/7 is an aspiration that will need to be carefully explored with rail industry partners following the recent Government announcement regarding the future of electrifcation schemes in the UK. 10 Figure 1.2 – Worcestershire Rail Connectivity With Rail Investment Strategy Conditional Outputs

LDS NCL LIV MAN

SFD WVH NOT BHM

KID LEI BMV SOL BIA

COV CBG HFD WOR SAV WPK MKC EVE CNM OXF CDF SWI MYB BRI RDG PAD

2 trains per hour or more PLY EXD 1 train per hour LHR

Less than 1 train per hour

Figure 1.3 – Worcestershire Connectivity To UK Economies With Conditional Outputs (Source: ONS)

WORCESTERSHIRE GVA £11.9bn

11 2. Introduction 2.1 In 2016 Worcestershire County Council travel rather than solely operational commissioned SLC Rail to assist in capability and capacity; developing its rail aspirations into an ambitious investment strategy to inform • The shift in balance of power in the rail Worcestershire’s emerging Local Transport industry towards locally defned and Plan 4 (LTP4) which is proposed for adoption delivered investments led by LEPs and during 2017. local authorities, adding value to those funded by central Government via Worcestershire County Council’s aspirations the Department for Transport’s 5 year are for: ‘Control Period’ plans;

• Train service enhancements; and • The growing credibility of Worcestershire County Council in • Supporting infrastructure including the rail industry given its leading role existing and new stations and station in projects such as Worcestershire car parks. Parkway, Bromsgrove Station relocation and station facility upgrades at Both of which will signifcantly enhance the Worcester Foregate Street and Malvern County’s level of rail accessibility to key Link; regional and national economic centres and encourage sustained modal shift from road to • The wider regional context, particularly rail, thus reducing reliance on private motor the plans for from 2026, vehicles; reducing congestion and improving and for shared and incrementally air quality. It is important to note that WCC devolved decision making in respect does not support any reduction in level of of the West Midlands Rail franchise, train service frequency or capacity and that within which WCC is an informed and no such reductions are promoted within the infuential player. WRIS. 2.3 Putting WCC at the heart of the railway 2.2 Development of an investment strategy for planning process is important as the Worcestershire refects fve strategic themes industry works towards an Initial Industry shared by the County, UK Government and Plan for Control Period 6 (2019-2024), due UK rail industry: December 2017, and an Indicative Train Service Specifcation for 2043. • The ambition of WCC, the Worcestershire and Greater Birmingham These plans are under ongoing development & Local Enterprise Partnerships following publication of the Western and and the County’s Borough, City and West Midlands & Chiltern Route Studies in District Councils for transformative but summer 2017. In addition, the West Midlands sustainable economic growth within Rail franchise is now in the mobilisation stage what is an increasingly competitive following award to Abellio in August 2017 environment between regions, LEPs and and extended Direct Award periods are now local authority areas; in place for the Great Western and Cross Country franchises. Work on assessing the • The recognition at Government level potential impact of HS2 on the classic rail of the economic value of the National network is underway, as are plans for future Rail network, refected in the focus of phases of the East-West Railway between long-term planning by the rail industry Oxford, and Cambridge. towards growing, changing markets for

12 Work on the East-West Railway was given a • To support WCC and WLEP in substantial boost in December 2016 following developing deep, productive the announcement by Transport Secretary, Rt relationships with DfT, Network Rail, Hon Chris Grayling MP, that the scheme will Transport for West Midlands (TfWM) / now be developed, owned and operated by a West Midlands Rail (WMR) – particularly private company, separate from Network Rail. through the development of their The DfT’s and Network Rail’s electrifcation own Rail Investment Strategy – train programme has been updated following the operators and potentially Third Party 2015 Hendy Review. Each of these had the investors, in developing the County’s rail potential to beneft Worcestershire directly, services; although the impact has now been lessened following the Government’s July 2017 decision • To provide a ‘translation and to put on hold all future electrifcation interpretation’ service for senior schemes. politicians, MPs and offcers, to assist in their engagement with Government Taking additional account of the delays to regarding investment in the County’s rail Great Western electrifcation, the Hendy and services; Shaw reviews of the structure and funding of the industry and Network Rail, and the • To function as a driver in supporting Hansford Review regarding aspirations to innovative, affordable and relevant rail enable more Third Party investment in regeneration in the County. the railway (which the County particularly 2.5 The development of the strategy has been welcomes), 2017 is a highly appropriate undertaken via the following 5 stages, which moment for the publication of this Rail are further illustrated at Figure 2.1: Investment Strategy. This document provides the County with the economic evidence • Stage 1 – Chapter 3 to support the principles, prioritisation and Current travel markets, train services prospective investment programme for its and accessibility – the Baseline; aspirations, and hence a powerful tool within the County and wider West Midlands and • Stage 2 – Chapter 4 with central Government, both in terms of Review of Worcestershire’s infuencing policy and funding bids. Development Proposals;

2.4 The specifc rationale for preparing a • Stage 3 – Chapter 5 prioritised Rail Investment Strategy thus has 6 Rail Industry Plans and Gap Analysis; key components: • Stage 4 – Chapter 6 • To form part of the Local Transport Economic Testing of Connectivity Plan (LTP4) and to proactively relate Options; train services and connectivity to the County’s economic drivers; • Stage 5 – Chapter 7 The Prioritised Conditional Outputs. • To provide an evidence base which enables projects to be assessed and Chapter 8 describes recommendations for prioritised in terms of Gross Value ‘Making It Happen’. Added to the economy and jobs – in an industry recognised format;

• In doing so, to match the expectations of the Department for Transport that rail investments will increasingly be local economy led and justifed; 13 Figure 2.1 – SLC Rail 5 Stage Rail Investment Strategy For Worcestershire

Worcestershire Rail Investment Strategy Supporting Worcestershire’s LTP4

Rail travel data Other mode travel data Rail services GWR-LM --XC CR-Freight

WLEP Strategic Economic Plan Borough, City and District Local Plans Worcs Local Transport Plan Neighbouring LTPs High Speed 2

Network Rail CP5 Plans DfT CP6 Planning Road Congestion Worcestershire strengths and weaknesses

GWR/WM&C Route Studies Engagement with NR TOC SLC Strategic Review GVA Analysis tested against future train service options

14 3. Stage 1 – Current Travel Markets, Train Services & Accessibility 3.1 The Worcestershire Rail Network

The rail network in Worcestershire has a the preserved Gloucester and complex history which resulted by the late Steam Railway (GWSR) which is due to provide 19th Century in routes both separately and a connection with Broadway in 2018. The jointly operated by the Great Western only part of Worcestershire’s network which Railway and Railway. At the core is currently electrifed is the ‘Cross-City’ line of these routes were the Midlands line north from Redditch towards Birmingham. between Birmingham New Street and Bristol Temple Meads (now known as the ‘Bristol to There is one station in the County on the Birmingham Line’), and the Great Western Stratford-upon-Avon to Birmingham Snow Hill route from London Paddington to Oxford, Line at ; as the route is otherwise Worcester, Great Malvern and Hereford wholly within Birmingham, Solihull and (the section from Oxford to Worcester now Warwickshire its signifcance for Worcestershire known as the ‘North Cotswold’ line), which is restricted. However, it will still be subject to continued onto Birmingham Snow Hill via the same growth potential as other stations in Kidderminster. the County and as a result needs to be similarly considered in the context of appropriate The core network in 2017 is shown at Figure service and station facility enhancements. Any 3.1 below, including the new Worcestershire such investigations will need to be agreed and Parkway station (due to open in early 2019), coordinated with West Midlands Rail and the preserved Railway (SVR) and Warwickshire County Council.

Figure 3.1 – Rail Map Of Worcestershire Birmingham

Hagley

Blakedown Wythall Key: Kidderminster Rail network Bromsgrove Stations Redditch Droitwich Spa New station Worcester Foregate Street Worcester Shrub Hill County Boundary Worcestershire Parkway Great Evesham Malvern

Broadway Hereford London

Bristol 15 It is important to note that the opening of 3.2 The Current Worcestershire Travel Market Worcestershire Parkway will serve to add And Dynamics Of Travel capacity on the network (a ‘net gain’) and will compliment and enhance the provision Table 3.2 below summarises passenger of stations in the County. It will not result volumes at Worcestershire stations (sources: in the closure of any other station as a Offce of Rail and Road’s [ORR] latest direct, or indirect, consequence of opening Estimates of Station Usage data for 2015/16, (similar recent examples being the opening and National Rail Enquiries [NRES] for car park of Stratford-upon-Avon Parkway less than 1 capacity). Figure 3.3 illustrates the relative mile from Stratford-upon-Avon Town Station position of the County’s stations, and Figure and Warwick Parkway within a few miles of 3.4 their growth in the past 6 years. Warwick Town station).

Table 3.2 – Passenger Usage And Car Park Capacity (Sources: ORR And NRES)

Annual Daily Car Park Passengers Growth Growth Station Usage return Capacity per Car since since 2015/16 passengers 2017 Park Space 2014/15 2009/10

Worcester Foregate Street 2,293,021 3,572 0 n/a 4% 54% Kidderminster 1,619,928 2,523 224 11 4% 22% Redditch 1,002,294 1,561 156 10 16% 17% Bromsgrove 619,880 966 251 4 9% 41% Worcester Shrub Hill 618,467 963 121 8 4% -28% Droitwich Spa 561,908 875 45 19 5% 19% Great Malvern 557,012 868 122 7 3% 20% 544,318 848 33 26 13% 16% Malvern Link 344,232 536 96 6 10% 38% Barnt Green 270,142 421 60 7 8% 22% Evesham 255,476 398 70 6 3% 25% Alvechurch 167,154 260 70 4 15% 21% Pershore 100,690 157 17 9 6% 71% 97,028 151 10 15 5% 14% Honeybourne 57,978 90 42 2 4% 65% Wythall 55,044 86 0 n/a 6% 23% Hartlebury 50,088 78 20 4 28% 108% Total COUNTY 9,214,660 14,354 1,337 11 7% 24%

16 Figure 3.3 – Passenger Usage By Station (Source: ORR)

Figure 3.4 – Passenger Growth At Worcestershire Stations Since 2009/10 (Source: ORR)

17 Key features illustrated and • Patronage is low at stations such as suggested by these 3 fgures include: Blakedown, Hartlebury, Pershore and Honeybourne, and, surprisingly so, from • Overall passenger growth of 24% between Evesham; 2009/10 and 2015/16 in Worcestershire (and At the same time patronage has grown from growth of 7% between 2014/15 and 2015/16) • the least used stations, albeit from their very – strong in itself – but lower than the UK low base. average of 31%, highlighting the constraints of the County’s current network; Features particular to 2015/16 which • Two stations, Worcester Foregate Street and may have infuenced passenger Kidderminster, dominate rail usage in the numbers include: County; • The 2015/16 data follows the North Cotswold • Worcester’s 2 stations together manage 2.9 Line improvements, which came into effect million passenger trips per annum – around from May 2015, and which saw a broadly 4,535 return passengers per day – and c. 32% hourly service introduced to replace the of all rail travel in the County; previous c. 2 hourly off-peak London service;

• Worcester Foregate Street attracts a large • The Redditch route’s usage follows full re- mix of journeys, especially as a destination opening of the line after a new because of its location in the centre of the was constructed at Alvechurch in order to City with considerable school travel from increase timetable capacity. Evesham, Kidderminster and Malvern; In the case of the substantial 28% fall in passenger • Worcester Shrub Hill has a lesser role due to numbers at Worcester Shrub Hill this relates its lesser position as a destination at the edge to changes in the ORR’s passenger counting of the City Centre and limited car parking methodology which splits ticket sales between capacity restricting its role as an origin; Worcester Shrub Hill and Foregate Street based on an algorithm rather than actual ticket sales • Journeys to/from Kidderminster represent data. Shrub Hill’s annual passenger numbers have nearly 20% of all rail travel in the County, been reduced from 968,000 in 2013/14 to 595,000 dominated by commuter fows into in 2014/15; a substantial ‘correction’. However, the Birmingham; however it is also important station did experience 4% growth in 2015/16 and to recognise the value of inbound visitor ways in which to further improve demand through movements to Kidderminster visiting 2 of Shrub Hill have been examined in the Business Case the County’s biggest tourist attractions – the work for the ‘Worcester Shrub Hill Masterplan’ and the West Midlands which was completed by SLC in March 2017. Safari Park; Options to progress development and delivery • Malvern’s two stations together manage over of the Masterplan recommendations are being 900,000 passenger trips per year - around explored at the time of writing and (in headline 1,400, return trips per day - and approximately terms) include transformation of the station 10% of all rail travel in the County. Growth forecourt, accessibility arrangements and since 2010/11 has been strong at nearly 40%. sustainable links to the City Centre. This underlines the important future role that the station will play in serving the City following the completion & opening of Worcestershire Parkway in 2019.

18 3.3 Current Train Services

3.3.1 Passenger train services operating through or within Worcestershire in the December 2016 – December 2017 timetable are shown in Table 3.6 below (some intermediate stations are not shown for brevity):

Table 3.6 – Worcestershire Train Services Summary – December 2016-December 2017 Timetable

Service Frequency Operator Rolling Stock

Hereford Broadly hourly between Worcester and London, GWR HST Great Malvern with some services extended to/from either Class 180 Worcester Hereford or Great Malvern Class 165/166 Oxford London Paddington Worcester 2 AM peak trains per day towards Paddington and 1 GWR HST Cheltenham PM peak return London Paddington Kidderminster 4 AM peak services to London and 4 PM peak return Chiltern Class 68+ Birmingham Snow Hill services Railways Mark III Birmingham Moor St coaches Banbury Class 168 London Marylebone Hereford Hourly with some additional peak services London Class 170 Great Malvern Midland Worcester Bromsgrove Birmingham New St Great Malvern Half-hourly from Worcester; most services terminate London Class 172 Worcester at or start from one of the Worcester stations, but Midland Kidderminster a small number extend to/from Great Malvern. Birmingham Snow Hill 2 per hour terminate or start at Kidderminster Birmingham Moor St providing a 4 trains per hour Kidderminster service to Birmingham. All services operate through Birmingham to either Dorridge or Whitlock’s End. Bristol Temple Meads Every two hours GWR Class 150 Gloucester Class 158 Cheltenham Worcester Great Malvern Redditch 3 tph calling at all stations London Class 323 Birmingham New St Midland Lichfeld Cardiff Central 2 trains call at Bromsgrove in each direction in the Cross Class 170 Cheltenham peak periods (0640 & 0710 – northbound and 1610 & Country Bromsgrove 1710 southbound). Birmingham New St Nottingham 19 There are 4 service groups on the Bristol to Birmingham Line, the 2 noted at Figure 3.6 (Great Malvern to Bristol and Cardiff to Nottingham), plus a further two strategic Cross Country services which pass through but do not call in Worcestershire:

• 1 train per hour between Bristol Temple Meads and Manchester via Birmingham;

• 1 train per hour between Plymouth and and Newcastle/ via Birmingham.

For clarity Snow Hill lines services are diagrammatically illustrated at Figure 3.7 below (note this does not show the services that also operate between Birmingham, Bromsgrove, Worcester, Great Malvern and Hereford).

Figure 3.7 – Snow Hill Lines Train Service Structure 2016/17 Timetable

20 3.3.2. Freight 3.4 Connectivity

The Bristol to Birmingham Line is a Figure 3.8 illustrates the limited connectivity major freight artery, with 2 freight of Worcestershire to other UK economic paths per hour in each direction. Some centres, not only adjacent Bristol and South of these are occasionally routed via , but those in the Worcester Shrub Hill. and north-east and north-west England. Direct connections are shown, illustrating The Worcester-Kidderminster- services with 2 trains per hour or more e.g. -Round Oak or Birmingham towards Birmingham from Worcester and route has 9 to 10 freight paths per day. Kidderminster, those with an hourly service such as Worcester to London Paddington, There is one freight train path per day and those with a lower frequency such as along the North Cotswold Line serving the 2 hourly Great Malvern-Worcester-Bristol the Long Marston depot. The WRIS will service and the peak direct Kidderminster continue to support the use of rail to to London Marylebone service. All other transport freight for the congestion connections must be made by at least 1 reduction and air quality benefts that it change either at Birmingham New Street or brings. Cheltenham Spa. 21 Figure 3.8 – Direct Rail Connectivity To And From Worcestershire – 2017

LDS NCL LIV MAN

SFD WVH NOT BHM

KID LEI BMV SOL BIA

COV CBG HFD WOR SAV

MKC EVE CNM OXF CDF SWI MYB BRI RDG PAD

2 trains per hour or more PLY EXD 1 train per hour

Less than 1 train per hour

Key For Figures 3.8, 3.16, 7.8, 7.9 And Executive Summary Figure 1.2

22 3.5 Current Worcestershire Rail Infrastructure – • Between Barnt Green and Capability And Constraints Redditch (although a dynamic passing loop was installed at 3.5.1 Most of Worcestershire’s rail network Alvechurch in 2015); is operating at capacity. The constraints to future development without • Between Droitwich Spa and Stoke investment are extensive, including: Works junction, just south of Bromsgrove; • Infrastructure (single line sections and antiquated signalling); • Between Evesham and Norton Junction, 3 miles south of • Timetable (frequency, regularity Worcester (and of direct and journey time); relevance between Charlbury and Wolvercote Junction in • Capacity (rolling stock and car at the eastern end of parking). the North Cotswold Line); Each of these is discussed in more detail • There are two independent single below. lines through Worcester Foregate 3.5.2 Infrastructure Street station, one from the Birmingham direction and one The rail network around Worcester is from the Shrub Hill direction, under-invested in and is still suffering which only connect at Henwick from the rationalisation undertaken by (a simplifed diagram is shown at in the 1960s and 1970s. There Figure 3.9 below); are single line sections in the following locations: • West of as far as Shelwick Junction, just north of Hereford.

Figure 3.9 – Simplifed Route Diagram Through Shrub Hill And Foregate Street Stations

23 There are 8 mechanically operated signal The consequences of continued dependence boxes within the County, principally on mechanical signalling are that, controlling the Snow Hill, Hereford and North notwithstanding its reliability and safety, the Cotswold Lines: headway (spacing of trains) is often far below modern standards, for example: • Droitwich Spa (fringes to West Midlands Signalling Centre for both Snow Hill • There can only be one train between lines and towards Bromsgrove and Droitwich and Worcester at any one Birmingham New Street); time, a distance of fve miles;

• Worcester Tunnel Junction, at the north • There can only be one train between end of the Worcester triangle; Newland East and Malvern Wells at any one time, in the northern direction • Worcester Shrub Hill; and two in the southbound direction, a distance of c. 4 miles, which includes • Norton Junction; two station stops; • Evesham (fringes to Moreton-in-Marsh • Trains terminating at Great Malvern – the next mechanical signal box on the Station, of which there are currently North Cotswold Line); 18 per weekday, are unable to reverse • Henwick (Norton Junction to Evesham at Great Malvern due to signalling on the North Cotswold Line and constraints and instead they have to Gloucester Power Signal Box on the continue onto Malvern Wells where Bristol route); they can reverse (the closest point where this is permissible on the • Newland East; network).

• Malvern Wells (fringes to Ledbury Signal Even where the infrastructure is more Box – also a mechanical signal box – modern, the volume of traffc on the main towards Hereford). Bristol to Birmingham Line creates signifcant constraints to growth. For example, the three trains an hour from Redditch need to join the main line at Barnt Green on a fat junction, cutting across southbound traffc fows. Just north of Bromsgrove, the Bank, at 1 in 37 towards Birmingham, still imposes a constraint on traffc and some freight trains still need a banking engine.

Figure 3.10 over illustrates the extent of these constraints throughout the County.

24 Figure 3.10: Rail Infrastructure Constraints In Worcestershire

Hagley

Blakedown Wythall Bewdley Kidderminster Barnt Green Hartlebury Alvechurch Bromsgrove Single line:

Redditch Manual signalling Droitwich Spa constraints:

Dual , digital Worcester Foregate signalling: Street Worcester Shrub Hill Worcestershire Parkway Heritage Line: Malvern Link Pershore Great Evesham Honeybourne Malvern

Broadway

3.5.3 Train Service Timetables • The long distance between signals between Worcester and Malvern Many of the defciencies in the 2016/17 Wells, and the single line west timetable are a direct consequence of towards Hereford, means that the infrastructure constraints described the number of train services that above, meaning that unless these can be accommodated on this constraints are addressed the scope for section of line at any one time is more frequent and faster train services very limited and, as a result, they is severely limited. Examples include: follow an irregular timetable;

• The single line sections between • The single line section between Norton Junction and Evesham Droitwich Spa and Stoke Works at and between Charlbury Bromsgrove limits the frequency and Wolvercote Junction in of Worcester to Birmingham New Oxfordshire effectively limit Street services. the service between Worcester, Oxford and London to one train per hour in each direction. Further limited services could be accommodated, but with a high level of performance risk;

25 3.5.4 Journey Times

Journey times to and from the County are slow, as per Tables 3.11, 3.12 and Figure 3.13 below, summarising average rail speeds on Worcestershire routes 9, against other UK locations and against some key road journeys.

Table 3.11 – Average Speeds Of Train Services To And From Worcestershire Stations

Average Speed Origin and Destination mph Worcester Shrub Hill – London Paddington 55 Worcester Shrub Hill – Oxford 10 44 Worcester Foregate Street – Hereford via Great Malvern 36 Worcester Foregate Street – Birmingham New Street via Bromsgrove 57 Kidderminster – Birmingham Snow Hill 33

Table 3.12 – Average Speeds Of Train Services To And From Comparable Uk Cities And / Or Towns

Trains per hour Miles Fastest Best rail Average Speed City/Town Population to London Road (AA) journey time mph Bath Spa 90,100 2 116 1h 25m 82 Cambridge 131,400 5 63 50m 75 Cheltenham Spa 110,013 2 96 2h 01m 47 Chesterfeld 100,900 2 149 1h 55m 78 Gloucester 136,200 0.5 115 1h 51m 62 Redditch 84,200 0 119 - - 63,600 3 142 1h 20m 106 Warwick/Leamington 84,900 2 100 1h 18m 77 Worcester 98,800 1 137 2h 09m 55 York 137, 500 4 210 1h 54m 110

9 Data calculated from train times on National Rail Enquiries Website and AA route map journey planning tool. 10 The average speed between Oxford and London is 66mph 26 Figure 3.13 – Comparative Journey Times (Minutes) Rail-Rail (Top) And Rail-Road (Bottom)

27 3.5.5 Connectivity • Northbound journeys from Kidderminster require a change either The structure of the train service also means between Birmingham Snow Hill/Moor that there are some signifcant gaps in Street and Birmingham New Street or at Worcestershire’s connectivity: ;

• Given Worcester is on a loop off the • Services between Great Malvern -– Bristol to Birmingham Line, long distance Worcester – Birmingham are limited to a UK-wide Cross-Country services neither typically hourly service due to signalling serve the City of Worcester nor the constraints West of Worcester; County. The journey time penalty from other locations for doing so would be • Evesham and East Worcestershire up to 20 minutes and has been deemed have no direct rail connectivity to unacceptable by the rail industry Birmingham. since the 1980s. In effect the County’s 566,000 population is excluded from 3.5.6 Capacity direct access to the strategic Cross Country network other than via Capacity (the maximum amount of passengers connections at Birmingham New Street that can be accommodated on a train or and Cheltenham Spa; through a station) is an issue across a number of routes and stations in the County. Where • The constraints of the mechanical they are already at, or exceeding, capacity signalling and single line between it suppresses demand and limits future Droitwich Spa and Bromsgrove impose opportunity for growth unless interventions signifcant performance risks and are made. Routes and stations currently at, or thus limit the connectivity between over, capacity are detailed as follows: Worcester and Birmingham via Bromsgrove; • Peak Redditch – Birmingham services are overcrowded and passengers are • Southbound journeys from Bromsgrove expected to stand for part, or all, of the other than to Worcester, Great Malvern journey; and Hereford require travel northwards to Birmingham New Street; • Worcester – Bromsgrove – Birmingham services are overcrowded for most parts • Southbound journeys from Redditch of the day, frequently with standing similarly require travel northwards passengers; to Birmingham New Street, and the town has no realistic connectivity • Worcester Foregate Street station is at with Worcester (due to the inability of capacity in terms of passenger through- providing a new line south of the town put, particularly during peak periods; (constrained by major developments) or at Barnt Green (prohibitive cost of a • Peak services on the North Cotswold new chord from the Cross-City to the Line suffer from overcrowding; Birmingham – Bristol line); • Peak Cross-Country services are often • Whilst having a good service overcrowded between Birmingham – to Birmingham and Worcester, Bromsgrove and the south-west. Kidderminster’s connectivity southwards from Worcester depends upon the 2-hourly frequency Great Malvern-Bristol service and connectivity at Cheltenham Spa;

28 3.5.7 Car Parking Capacity At Worcestershire Station), with a poor ratio of 1 space per 11 Stations passengers (Figure 3.2 above). This is 147 spaces fewer than the number of spaces available Previous work by WCC on Worcestershire between Lapworth and Leamington Spa on Parkway identifed the lack of station car the Chiltern Line, as illustrated at Figure 3.14 parking as a major constraint on access to (Warwick Parkway alone has 959 spaces) the National Rail network for the County, upon future passenger volume growth, and Worcestershire Parkway will add a further a perverse incentive for high volumes of 500 car park spaces, bringing the total to 1,837 highway use to access London services at from 2019, and allowing (on average) 1 car park Birmingham International, the newly opened space for every 8 passengers. If the Network Oxford Parkway or Warwick Parkway via the Rail Markets Studies growth forecasts are M5/M42/M40/A34. realised, even to maintain this 1:8 ratio, the County would need a further 1,700 plus new Indeed, the busiest station in the County car park spaces between 2018 and 2043, at Worcester Foregate Street has no car parking existing or new stations, as shown at Table at all. Across the County’s stations, a total of 3.15. This is a major challenge to the County 1,337 parking spaces are currently available requiring fuller assessment at a further stage (there was a net gain of 296 new spaces in of this Rail Investment Strategy. 2016 following the relocation of Bromsgrove

Figure 3.14 – North Cotswold – Chiltern Lines Car Park Capacity Against Population COTSWOLD CHILTERN Great Malvern Lapworth

Malvern Link P Hatton

Worcester FS 2017 Warwick Pkwy Worcester SH Warwick

Pershore Leamington 437 1,453 Spa Evesham spaces spaces Honeybourne 301,000 262,000 Worcester, , Districts - Population Warwick and Stratford Districts - Population (Office of National Statistics 2016 mid-year estimates) (Office of National Statistics 2016 mid-year estimates) 1/688 1/180 Ratio of station car park spaces against population Ratio of station car park spaces against population

29 Table 3.15 – Car Parking Capacity Growth At Worcestershire Stations To 2043 (Table Is A Development Of Figure 3.2) 11

Passengers Daily Car Park Number Daily Car park per Car Return Spaces of New Station Return Capacity Park Space Passengers Needed Spaces Passengers 2018 2018 2043 2043 Needed Worcester Foregate Street 3,572 0 n/a 7037 n/a n/a Kidderminster 2,523 224 11 4971 441 217 Redditch 1,561 196 10 3076 384 188 Bromsgrove 966 251 4 1902 494 243 Worcester Shrub Hill 963 121 8 1898 238 117 Droitwich Spa 875 45 19 1724 89 44 Great Malvern 868 122 7 1709 240 118 Hagley 848 33 26 1670 65 32 Worcestershire Parkway 597 500 1 1176 985 485 Malvern Link 536 96 6 1056 189 93 Barnt Green 421 60 7 829 118 58 Evesham 398 70 6 784 138 68 Alvechurch 260 70 4 513 138 68 Pershore 157 17 9 309 33 16 Blakedown 151 10 15 298 20 10 Honeybourne 90 42 2 178 89 47 Wythall 86 0 n/a 169 0 0 Hartlebury 78 20 4 154 39 19 Total COUNTY 14,951 1,877 8 29,454 3,702 1,825

3.5.8 Worcester Foregate Street And City, providing access for the County to Worcester Shrub Hill its retail, administrative and educational facilities – the last representing a large Given the size of the City of if low-yield market for rail. As an access Worcester’s population (98,500 – 2011 point, however, it is in the middle of Census) and its strong forecast growth the City’s congested highway network in population and developing role as and has no car parking of any sort, a University City, the locations and nor any set-down/pick-up capability, facilities of its 2 stations represent a although a number of bus services pass signifcant constraint to access. and a city centre taxi-rank is adjacent. In the absence of Worcester Shrub Hill Worcester Foregate Street, recently it would be wholly insuffcient for the benefting from facility enhancements City as an access point to the National made by WCC, is well-placed as a Rail network. destination station in the heart of the

11 The fgures in this table are calculated on the assumption that the current ratio of car parking spaces vs. passengers is maintained under the 2043 scenario. It is noted that GWR, WCC and Wychavon District Council are currently working on a detailed business case for car park expansion at Pershore Station that will refne these estimates of future year car parking requirements. Wythall Station is landlocked between residential houses. Options to enhance the station will be explored as part of subsequent development phases of the WRIS. However, one alternative option may be to expand car parking at the nearby Whitlocks End station than to attempt to provide parking at Wythall. 30 Worcester Shrub Hill is a poor gateway some capacity for those who access both into and out of the City of Shrub Hill from the edges of the City Worcester, experienced as ‘outside of and its rural hinterland, or who currently the City Centre’, hidden behind offces use Birmingham International or (most particularly Elgar House) and Warwick Parkway, but this will not offer other buildings, in a run-down former the City-based capacity for the scale industrial part of the City, with poor of growth forecast to 2043 by Network highway access, limited car parking Rail or passengers attracted to the more capacity, limited bus services with regular and faster IEP services from no formal interchange and no clear, 2018 (IEP being the DfT’s programme to attractive pedestrian route to the City replace the existing InterCity 125 feet Centre. on the Great Western & East Coast Mainlines with new Class 800 / 801 bi- Shrub Hill has poor passenger facilities mode or electric only trains). which, whilst updated to basic modern standards, provide limited heated Access to either station from west of waiting-rooms, toilets only on one the is particularly diffcult, platform, dark, non-transparent canopy requiring use of the City’s one central glazing, and no fully accessible route river bridge and the congested one way between platforms, with passengers highway system. Notably, much of the with disabilities, heavy luggage or new housing development in Worcester children’s pushchairs needing to be is projected to be built on that side of assisted by station staff across a barrow the City. One of the ways to address crossing. this issue would be to construct a new station west of the City in order The overall quality of the station to provide access from the A4440 neither meets the expectations of and to mitigate the effects of new modern passengers, nor the standards development in the area (see table 5.16 and aesthetics of the City of Worcester, for more details). and this is being addressed through the fndings of the Shrub Hill Station 3.5.9 Rolling Stock Availability Masterplan, to be published in late 2017. It is expected that this Masterplan will Rolling stock availability to act as a catalyst for regeneration of the accommodate growth sits within whole Worcester Shrub Hill area of the a complex and mixed context of City. It will also then serve to act as a partial Government leadership and point of sustainable access for residents specifcation, a private-sector ‘supply wanting to reach Worcestershire side’ and a highly regulated end-user in Parkway without having to rely on use the form of the ‘limited life’ franchised of the private car. Train Operating Companies.

Taken together the 2 stations provide Worcestershire has benefted from a only 121 car parking spaces for a joint range of rolling stock upgrades both passenger volume of circa 4,535 return in quality and capacity and will do passengers per day, or a ratio of 1 space so further from direct Department for every 37 passengers, and Shrub for Transport investment via the Hill’s car parking capacity is usually full (GWML) before the end of the morning peak. electrifcation: Worcestershire Parkway will provide

31 • Snow Hill Lines – Class 172 to enable the rolling stock to Turbostar stock introduced by operate beyond 2020.; in 2011 replacing the Class 150 ‘Sprinters’; • London Paddington- Worcestershire – new InterCity • Birmingham-Hereford And Express bi-mode (diesel and Nottingham-Cardiff – Class 170 electric) trains which will replace Turbostar units formerly operated GWR High Speed Trains on the by (now London North Cotswold and South Midland) and by Cross Country on Cotswold routes from 2018/19 – Nottingham-Cardiff routes after these procured directly by the 2004; DfT.

• Chiltern Lines – Class 168 The key issue for Worcestershire is that Turbostar introduced in 2002 and it remains a non-electrifed network, loco/Mark III ‘InterCity’ types other than between Bromsgrove, sets on Kidderminster-London Redditch and Birmingham, for the Marylebone services introduced foreseeable future with electrifcation in 2011 (in this case procured planning for other routes tentative and commercially by Chiltern uncertain (see Section 5.9 below for a Railways); fuller discussion of DfT and Network Rail electrifcation planning). • Cross City Lines From Redditch – Class 323 electric units introduced The case for electrifcation is very much in 1993, operated by London driven by 1) long-term operating cost Midland – these units will operate savings and 2) the secondary beneft of to Bromsgrove when electrifed in electric trains being able to accelerate 2018; more swiftly than diesels and provide capability for more frequent train • Great Malvern-Worcester- services and hence more passenger Bristol – allocation of some capacity. For Worcestershire a number regional Class 158 trains and of the train service Conditional Outputs refurbished Class 150 Sprinters, discussed at Section 7 may either operated by GWR; these may depend upon, or become signifcantly be supplemented or replaced by more feasible with, electrifcation. Class 165 / 166 units released by GWR after electrifcation of the It had previously been assumed Thames Valley portions of the that, in advance of any further GWML is completed; electrifcation of routes within the County, the previously committed • Cross Country – new Voyager GWML, and units introduced in 2001 which TransPennine electrifcation schemes form the base provision of would have released diesel rolling Cross Country services between stock which could ‘cascade’ to areas South-West, North-West and such as Worcestershire, in particular North-East England. Also a on routes such as Hereford, Great number of loco-hauled MKIII Malvern and Worcester to Birmingham coach ‘’ trains operate where on-train passenger capacity is between Plymouth and already at a premium on peak services. Edinburgh. This feet is currently However, the Government’s July 2017 undergoing modifcations to announcement that put on hold all enable legislative compliance and 32 future electrifcation schemes means services between Worcester, Hereford that alternative solutions to providing and South Wales, given that Hereford additional rolling stock will need to be Station and the Line found. comes under the management of the Wales Route. At times this will require 3.6 Committed Rail Industry plans relevant to WCC and other stakeholders to deal Worcestershire with a third branch of Network Rail. These multiple layers of differing 3.6.1 Worcestershire’s rail infrastructure is industry staff, perspectives and managed by 2 Network Rail Routes – imperatives challenges the grain of the London North Western (South), based “One Economy / One Railway” concept in Birmingham, and Western, based in which seeks to maximise economic Swindon. growth and social prosperity through a London North Western (South) Route cohesive, effciently run, regional (and national) rail network. However, WCC • Abbotswood Junction (Worcester) welcomes Network Rail’s commitment to Birmingham; in summer 2017 for both LNW and Western Routes to work together with • Worcester to Droitwich Spa, the Council to ensure there is ‘One Kidderminster and Bromsgrove. Voice’ on Worcestershire’s rail priorities.

Western Route 3.6.2 The rail industry’s current committed train service and infrastructure • Norton Junction to Worcester enhancement plans derive from the and Great Malvern (and Hereford); Department for Transport’s ‘High • Cheltenham to Abbotswood Level Output Statement’ (HLOS) for Junction on the Bristol to the 5-year investment ‘Control Period’ Birmingham Line; CP5 2014-2019 – effectively what Government seeks to buy from the • Honeybourne to Norton Junction industry. on the North Cotswold Line. In turn Network Rail defnes how it Their placement into London North will facilitate and deliver these outputs Western Route groups them logically within its CP5 Business Plan and into the ‘West Midlands Travel to Work’ Enhancement Delivery Plan (EDP). In area, with management in Birmingham 2015 delays in implementing projects signifcantly closer to Worcester than such as Great Western electrifcation, that possible from Western Route at together with increasing costs, led the Swindon and with potential to offer Government to appoint a new Network greater focus than previously. Rail Chairman, Sir Peter Hendy, with a clear remit to review and re-plan CP5 Having said that, the County’s railway delivery to greater levels of fnancial and remains divided between 2 Network programme confdence. Rail routes, requiring WCC and other stakeholders to necessarily have to In November 2015 Sir Peter Hendy deal with more industry staff and published his initial report “Re-planning departments as well as differing Network Rail’s investment programme: perspectives and imperatives. Further a report from Sir Peter Hendy to the complications arise regarding any Transport Secretary (Nov 2015)”.

33 This was followed in March 2016 by it is not known at this stage which of his review of the CP5 Enhancement the deferred CP5 schemes will receive Delivery Plan which confrmed funding or be further deferred to CP7 development and delivery programmes or beyond. within CP5, those which would take place across CP5 and CP6 (2019-2024) 3.6.3 Great Western Electrifcation And and those which would commence in Intercity Express Programme CP6. Electrifcation of the Great Western Key projects of relevance to Main Line (GWML) from London Worcestershire in the revised CP5 EDP Paddington to Newbury, Oxford, include: Bristol Temple Meads, Bristol Parkway, Cardiff and was originally • Great Western Main Line planned for completion by December Electrifcation; 2017. Electrifcation will enable the introduction of new ‘InterCity Express’ • InterCity Express Programme (IEP); bi-mode diesel / electric or electric only trains which have a faster running • Great Western Main Line Specifc speed and more passenger carrying Capacity Schemes including capacity over the current rolling stock, Henwick Turnback at Worcester; thus reducing journey times and • Bromsgrove Electrifcation; improving the travelling experience.

• Bristol infrastructure and West The intention was that services of England rolling stock capability between Worcester and London programme; Paddington would be operated by bi-mode Intercity Express Programme • Heathrow Western Access. trains with a new timetable planned from December 2018 to provide a Taken together with the County’s regular interval hourly pattern. However, recently completed scheme at programme delays meant that a revised Bromsgrove Station and committed timetable for delivery was subsequently scheme for Worcestershire Parkway, set out in the 2015 Hendy Review: these are described more fully at 3.6.3 to 3.6.8 below. • Newbury, Bristol Parkway and Cardiff to be reached by In July 2017 the Government published December 2018; the ‘High Level Output Statement’ for CP6 which stated that the focus of • Oxford by June 2019; investment for the next 5 years will be on maintenance and life-expired • Bristol Temple Meads from Bristol renewals of existing infrastructure Parkway by July 2019; rather than on new enhancements; • Bristol Temple Meads completion a refection no doubt on the cost by April 2020. increases and delays that have been incurred during CP5.

The Statement of Funds Available (SoFA), the Government’s defned budget for the railway, will not be published until October 2017 and so

34 Unfortunately, further delays and needed enhancements to the limited signifcant cost-overruns meant that in network capabilities in the area and November 2016 the Department for permit service improvements for both Transport announced that work on operators and their services along the four sections of the project had been route. deferred, with completion planned between 2019 & 2024 (Control Period 6) The EDP noted that the Henwick and the extension to Swansea cancelled scheme was authorised with a delivery entirely. The four sections in question date of December 2017 thus facilitating are: the proposed 2018 hourly train service timetable between Paddington and • Oxford to Parkway Worcester (and with Worcestershire Parkway due to open in 2019). At the • Bristol Parkway to Bristol Temple time of writing Network Rail have Meads begun work in this area and the scheme is expected to be completed and • Bath Spa to Bristol Temple Meads commissioned by January 2018. • Thames Valley branches to Henley Further work was undertaken by and Windsor Network Rail and GWR during 2016 The implication of these delays on the regarding the relationship between operation of the 2018 IEP timetable is the performance characteristics of still to be fully understood, although the new IEP trains (taking into account it is now known that all IEP trains will the reduced extent of electrifcation) be bi-mode rather than a mix of bi- and the detailed December 2018 train mode and electric-only rolling stock; service. We understand that the hourly thus enabling services to run through Paddington – Worcester service will still the sections that have been delayed require the turn-back at Henwick (or for completion. Network Rail’s Control some alternative location). Period 6 Business Plan (once published) 3.6.5 Bromsgrove Electrifcation should confrm whether or not this revised timetable for electrifcation This scheme extends the ‘Cross City remains correct. line’ south to Bromsgrove and is part of a package of measures including 3.6.4 GWML Capacity Schemes – Henwick the new station at Bromsgrove Turnback At Worcester and the extension of To support GWML electrifcation the electrifcation from Barnt Green. revised EDP sets out an extensive range This will enable three Cross of capacity schemes across the GWML trains per hour to serve Bromsgrove, within the remainder of CP5. For the representing a radical transformation of Worcester-London Paddington route rail services to the town. this includes the provision of a turnback The new relocated station at facility at Henwick, west of Worcester Bromsgrove, which opened in 2016, is Foregate Street. This is specifcally initially being served by existing diesel- described as “(enabling) an hourly powered London Midland and Cross service to operate to and from London Country services. Paddington and Worcester Foregate St Station (City Centre) without the need The EDP proposed electrifcation was to run to Malvern Wells to turn-back.” to have been completed in April 2017, More generally it will also provide much with the new electric 3 tph service 35 commencing in May 2017. However due 3.6.7 Heathrow Western Access to project delays, re-franchising and the necessary driver training programme The EDP recognises the transformative the electric service will now commence impact of providing a western facing in May 2018. Notably and positively access at Heathrow to the Great the EDP recognises the train service Western Main Line. For Worcestershire timetable relationship between this passengers this will signifcantly enhance scheme and Worcestershire Parkway. ease of access to with only a single change required at 3.6.6 Bristol Infrastructure And Rolling Reading Station. Stock Capability Works Public consultation for this scheme 2 key pieces of work are confrmed in is underway in 2017 and the EDP the EDP at Bristol which will support envisages work commencing on site at 2 new London Paddington-Bristol the beginning of CP6 (2019-2024) with Parkway-Bristol Temple Meads services commissioning by 2024. Again, these from December 2018 – increased time scales will need to be reviewed in infrastructure to allow more paths light of the publication of the CP6 SoFA between Parkway and Temple Meads, in October 2017. and new platforms (in the former train shed). 3.6.8 Worcestershire Parkway

Of direct relevance to Bristol to Worcestershire County Council is Worcester services are the ‘gauge delivering Worcestershire Parkway clearance’ works to widen, or alter, at the point east of Norton Junction lineside structures to enable Class where the North Cotswold line crosses 165 and 166 units (as currently used the Bristol to Birmingham Line. The on the North Cotswold Line) to project is, at the time of writing, operate between Temple Meads and progressing through the completion of Abbotswood Junction from May 2018. the ‘GRIP5’ detailed design and work on site has commenced. The station is then anticipated to open in early 2019. The design of the new station is such that it will not jeopardise delivery of future enhancements along the North Cotswold Line (such as full or partial double tracking) as may be realised through the work of the North Cotswold Line Task Force or through Network Rail’s Long Term enhancements and renewals programmes.

36 Parkway’s location close to Junction 7 Once opened, the new station will of the M5 will make it a strategic access serve to strengthen the case for further point for the rail network for much of enhancements in service frequency the County. It will have 500 car parking and quality along the line, including at spaces. Services to Parkway will initially intermediate stations such as Pershore, include: Honeybourne and Evesham.

• Hourly GWR Worcester – London The enhanced connectivity that will be Paddington services; offered by Worcestershire Parkway and Bromsgrove electrifcation is illustrated • Hourly Cross Country Cardiff – at Figure 3.16 below (compared to 2016 Nottingham services. as shown at Figure 3.8 above).

Figure 3.16 – Direct Rail Connectivity To And From Worcestershire – 2018 With Worcestershire Parkway And Bromsgrove Electrifcation

LDS NCL LIV MAN

SFD WVH NOT BHM

KID LEI BMV SOL BIA

COV CBG HFD WOR SAV WPK MKC EVE CNM OXF CDF SWI MYB BRI RDG PAD

2 trains per hour or more PLY EXD 1 train per hour

Less than 1 train per hour

37 3.7 Refranchising Programme • Cross-Route Fares – a journey may come under the consideration of a The refranchising programme represents an number of TOCs along its route or, opportunity for the conclusions of this Rail along different routes through the same Investment Strategy to be used to lobby the part of the County; Department for Transport for inclusion in franchise specifcations. • Historic Fares Setting Policy – some of Worcestershire’s fares are based on Those refranchising processes relevant to policies frst established by British Rail; Worcestershire which have commenced or are commencing imminently are: • Market Segmentation – different ticket types for different classes of user; • West Midlands Rail (Currently London Midland): franchise now awarded to • Fares Regulation – to correct fares Abellio and expected to commence in anomalies by capping fares in a captive December 2018; market;

• West Coast Franchise (Currently Virgin • Regulatory Flexibility – some fares may Trains): franchise starts April 2019; be increased by TOCs by 2% over the regulatory cap within a weighted basket • Great Western (Currently GWR): of fares; franchise starts April 2019; • Divergence – between regulated and • Cross Country (Currently Arriva): unregulated (no cap) fares; franchise starts November 2019. • First Class Fares – large increase in fares The full industry consultation timetable is for the premium of travelling frst class; discussed further at Section 5.3 below. • Infation – widens the gap between 3.8 Ticketing fares over time.

Rail fares are poorly understood by many It should be noted that rail fares regulation passengers and industry stakeholders and is set by central Government policy, over fares are not always set in proportion to the which there is little, or no, local control. distance travelled. There are a number of Fare increase caps can vary year on year in reasons why fares per mile vary considerably response to changes in Government policy within the County; they are not mutually and TOCs will tend to increase fares by the exclusive and fares may be subject to maximum allowed each year particularly as a complicated combination of factors, passengers using these fares tend to be those including: with limited choices (e.g. commuting into Birmingham or London) and are therefore a • Structure Of Fares Setting – varies captive market. across the different routes in Worcestershire which are controlled by In addition, changes in fares quotas (such as individual Train Operating Companies the number of available advanced purchase, (TOCs), with different principles & off-peak tickets) and split ticketing (buying practices; a number of tickets between intermediate stops on a route in order to save money) have contributed to, at best, a confusing travel market and, at worst, an opinion of poor value and mistrust in the mind of many passengers.

38 4. Stage 2 – Review Of Worcestershire’s Development Proposals 4.1 Worcestershire – Population, Economy And 4.2 Worcestershire LEP Strategic Economic Development Plan (SEP)

Worcestershire is an attractive and thriving The WLEP’s Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) County, stretching from the borders of highlights a number of challenges facing the the urban West Midlands to the Border County and notes that “there is considerable of and , scope to enhance Worcestershire’s rail the and the South West in infrastructure and services”: . The City of Worcester is at the heart of the County, with key towns • SEP Section 2.3.2 ‘Place’ shows at Redditch, Bromsgrove, Droitwich Spa, signifcant congestion points on the Kidderminster, Bewdley, Stourport-on-Severn, highway network within Worcestershire , Great Malvern, Upton-on- (in Figure 2.2) and Table 2.1 notes that Severn, Pershore and Evesham. these areas are ‘constraining economic growth’. It further notes that ‘improved The County has a population of 566,000, rail connectivity’ is a key opportunity but grew less in the 2001-2011 Census period for growth; than many other West Midlands areas, including neighbouring authorities such as • SEP Section 2.3.4 ‘Business’ lists Warwickshire. WCC and the Worcestershire “major economic and demographic Local Enterprise Partnership (WLEP) have growth in Birmingham and Solihull” ambitious growth targets, seeking to deliver as both an opportunity and a threat. 25,000 new jobs, £11.8bn of economic benefts Improvements to the sustainable (rail) (Gross Value Added) and 47,200 homes by infrastructure that unlock access to and 2030 12. This represents signifcant levels of from these markets is key to maximising population growth over the next 15 years, the opportunity benefts; likely to generate signifcant challenges for • SEP Section 2.3.5 ‘Key Opportunities capacity and speed of the transport network And Challenges’ lists “infrastructure to and for environmental sustainability. remove constraints and unlock growth” A number of strategic economic, as one of the primary challenges transportation and development strategies that the SEP aims to overcome in the have been produced with the objective of delivery of its objectives. In the context trying to manage and capitalise upon the of localised road traffc congestion (ref. benefts of this predicted population growth. Section 2.3.2) and limited expansion Each is considered in turn, with key policy capacity of the highway network, rail statements extracted to help justify future rail investment will be a key force to help investment in Worcestershire. deliver these aspirations.

12 Worcestershire Local Enterprise Partnership, Worcestershire Strategic Economic Plan; March 2014 39 The SEP then outlines key policies and 4.3 Worcestershire’s Local Transport Plan 4 objectives to combat these issues, a number (2017 – 2030) of which are particularly relevant to future rail investment: 4.3.1 WCC’s 3rd Local Transport Plan (LTP3) has been refreshed and updated and • Short Term Objective – 2015/16 (01) – is to be replaced by LTP4. This Rail “To ask the Department for Transport Investment Strategy highlights a number (DfT) to deliver (North Cotswold of rail constraints and policy objectives Line) frequency and journey time in order to support prioritised delivery improvements (under 2 hours) from of, and which should be carried into, the Worcester to London and to include fnal LTP4. Worcestershire Parkway in the new Great Western Franchise”; The introduction to the main LTP4 document sets out three ways in • Transport Infrastructure Programme which WCC will target increasing – supports the Worcester area re- transport capacity in order to maximise signalling and track re-modelling (noting sustainable access to employment that this is not something within the and tourism, reducing congestion control of the WLEP) and improved (and therefore air-bourne pollution) services between Worcestershire and and journey times, and supporting Birmingham / the West Midlands / HS2. economic growth:

In addition, there is clear commitment to • Transport Technology – in order support the construction of Worcestershire to offer increasingly attractive Parkway and the Kidderminster Rail Station opportunities to help manage Enhancement scheme (the latter being a demand on the transport short-term ‘Local Growth Fund’ initiative) and networks, tackle congestion and which is set to transform the , support growth; forecourt and highway access by mid-2019. Both are being delivered at the time of writing • Travel Choice – increasing travel and will actively improve accessibility to and choice to allow the economy to from the County by rail, and reduce reliance grow and diversify, prioritising on private car travel. investment in alternative travel modes with a particular focus on rail. The rail network is recognised for its signifcant potential to accommodate and support economic diversifcation and planned growth. It also has an important role to play in achieving modal shift from road to rail, tackling congestion, emissions of nitrogen dioxide and particulates and of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, as well as reducing road-vehicle collisions;

• Capacity Enhancement – in relation to rail this means signifcant investment in the County’s stations, rail infrastructure and rolling stock. 40 The previous LTP3 set out WCC’s Top 10 4.3.2 North East Worcestershire Transport rail priorities within the main document, Strategy whereas under LTP4, the rail priorities are set out within this Rail Investment The North East Worcestershire Strategy (appended to the main report). Transport Strategy, covering Bromsgrove The LTP3 Top 10 rail priorities were set and Redditch Districts, has limited out as follows, with 2017 status shown in reference to rail services, although it (italics): notes that 66% of residents drive to work despite there being 6 railway • 1 – Worcestershire Parkway stations in the 2 districts (Redditch, (opening 2019); Alvechurch and Barnt Green on the Cross City Line, Bromsgrove (on the • 2 – Bromsgrove new station Birmingham - Bristol line) and Hagley on (opened 2016); the Kidderminster Line and Wythall on the Stratford-upon-Avon-Birmingham • 3 – Birmingham to Worcester Line). This implies that access to and the services (December 2018); level of rail services from the stations • 4 – Cotswold line improvements need to be improved if modal shift in (to be completed by the end of the region is to be achieved away from 2018) 13; the private motor vehicle.

• 5 – Signal and line capacity The key rail focus of the Strategy is enhancements in Worcester; the relocation of Bromsgrove Station, which opened in July 2016, along with • 6 – Cross City line south service support to the rail industry for the improvements; new Alvechurch Loop on the Redditch line (delivered in 2015) and aspirational • 7 – Kidderminster railway station station enhancement schemes at improvements (delivery planned Hagley, Alvechurch and Wythall. for 2019);

• 8 – Cycle and car parking;

• 9 – Birmingham to Bristol services;

• 10 – Worcester railway station improvements (Foregate St completed; Shrub Hill Masterplan completed in 2017).

All of these priorities remain signifcant in 2017 and the new LTP4, with further development required even with those where progress has been made. One core purpose of this Rail Investment Strategy is to provide the economic evidence and priority order for these interventions and thus shape the development and direction of the LTP4.

13 Network Rail delivered improvements outside of the remit currently being considered by the North Cotswold Line Task Force 41 4.3.3 South Worcestershire Transport services to Worcester and the West Strategy Midlands and a limited direct service to London Marylebone. Notwithstanding The South Worcestershire Transport this there was a 67% growth in rail travel Strategy covers the City of Worcester, from 2004 – 2009. The District is noted Wychavon and Malvern Hills Districts. as having some of the most deprived It notes that there is an infrequent areas in the County (e.g. the Rife Range train service between Worcester area of Kidderminster and the Areley and Cheltenham Spa and that there Kings area of Stourport-on-Severn). A is no direct access to Cross-Country more recent 2015 ‘Nomis’ report stated rail services. It specifcally states that that the District had around 4.6% “this lack of strategic rail accessibility unemployment, compared to a 5.2% directly impacts on Worcestershire’s national average indicating that there competitiveness as a place to do may be some economic recovery in the business”. area 14. Despite its proximity to both south Worcestershire and the West It principally focuses upon the now- Midlands conurbation, over 65% of delivered station enhancement schemes people who live in the area work in the at Worcester Foregate Street and area. Malvern Link, aspirational schemes at Droitwich Spa, Pershore, Hartlebury Tourism plays an important role in the and Hagley, North Cotswold Line Wyre Forest economy, thanks to the doubling, Worcester re-signalling presence of the West Midlands Safari and the possibility of re-opening the Park and the Severn Valley Railway. Honeybourne-Stratford-upon-Avon Both venues are located close to route. Kidderminster and thus an improved rail service to and from the town would 4.3.4 Wyre Forest Transport Strategy beneft the economy. The Wyre Forest Transport Strategy The key rail focus of the Strategy is notes that there are only 2 National Rail Kidderminster and Blakedown station stations in the district despite its size enhancements and Kidderminster of approximately 200km2 and 100,000 to Birmingham journey time residents. The stations at Kidderminster enhancements. and Blakedown are served by local

14 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/1946157198/report.pdf 42 4.3.5 A Developing Vision Of The North • Assessment of the enhanced Cotswold Line infrastructure, facilities and staffng required to deliver the Separately from LTP3 but driven by Joint Vision; seeking agreement in respect of the Worcestershire Parkway scheme with • Assessment of the options to the DfT, Network Rail and the Train provide later evening services; Operators, In 2015 WCC commenced formulation of a a Shared Vision for the • Assessment of the potential development of the North Cotswold future value of re-opening the Line (as illustrated at Figure 4.1) the frst Stratford-Honeybourne line of which was published by GWR in as a secondary priority only mid-2016. The second ‘Joint Vision’ was once the value of the enhanced published in autumn 2016. This focused Worcestershire - Oxfordshire frstly on train service enhancements - London services have been (including those required to meet the realised. objectives of WCC and the WLEP) and • Joint engagement with the secondly the infrastructure necessary to rail industry, Herefordshire, meet these rather than being led by the Gloucestershire and Oxfordshire latter. This latter Joint Vision has been to develop an integrated used for ongoing discussions with the ‘economic case’ for North rail industry and neighbouring LEPs and Cotswold Line improvements; local authorities. • An incremental development Its particular components relevant to plan for the route between 2015 this Rail Investment Strategy included: and the opening of HS2 in 2026 • A 2 trains per hour Worcester to (N.B. HS2 development work London Paddington frequency at London Euston 2018-2021 will with 1 tph as a limited stop affect ‘Express’ service to offer headline services and may encourage more journey times of 2 hours or less, Worcestershire passengers to use and 1 tph as a ‘semi-fast’ service to the North Cotswold Line just as provide an hourly service from all Worcestershire Parkway opens). stations; The WCC Vision’s relationship to • Assessment of the options Network Rail’s long-term plans for to enhance services west of the North Cotswold Line is discussed Worcester to Great Malvern & further at Section 5.6.1. The Vision Hereford; document is shown at Figure 4.1.

43 Figure 4.1

In Spring 2016 the (GWR) funding options. WCC is the lead authority for the hosted an event attended by WCC, other local NCLTF, refecting its strength of commitment to the authorities, Local Enterprise Partnerships, rail route’s future services, as evidenced by the work industry stakeholders and businesses at which GWR undertaken as part of this Rail Investment Strategy. launched a Joint Vision document for the North Cotswold Line as a whole. The event was chaired Subsequent work since publication of both Vision by Lord Faulkner of Worcester and was addressed documents led to the milestone meeting of MPs, by the then Prime Minister, David Cameron, who DfT, NR, GWR, Worcestershire, Oxfordshire & encouraged unifed purpose and preparation of Gloucestershire County Councils (and respective a compelling case to create confdence in the LEPs) and rail interest groups on the 29th November ambition for the route. The organisations attending 2016. Under the chairmanship of Lord Faulkner agreed to the formation of a North Cotswold Line of Worcester the organisations agreed to the Task Force (NCLTF) to progress the delivery of the formation of the North Cotswold Line Task Force joint Vision and its inaugural meeting was held in (NCLTF). The NCLTF has a remit to progress the July 2017. At the time of writing the North Cotswold delivery of the Joint Vision and the inaugural Line Task Force had begun delivery of its frst-year meeting was held in July 2017. At the time of writing programme of works, seeking to scope an agreed the North Cotswold Line Task Force had begun set of train service, infrastructure, programme and delivery of its frst-year programme of works.

44 Figure 4.2 – Housing And Employment Growth In Worcestershire

Hagley Wyre Forest 5,4005,940 houses houses to 2034 Blakedown Wythall 4040 Ha Employment Bewdley Kidderminster Barnt Green Hartlebury Alvechurch Bromsgrove Redditch

Droitwich Spa BromsgroveBromsgrove & RedditchRedditch 13,4009,300 houses 14783 Ha Ha Employment Employment Worcester Foregate Street Worcester Shrub Hill

Worcestershire Parkway Pershore Malvern Link SWDP Honeybourne Great 28,40028,000 houses Evesham Malvern 280248 Ha Employment

Broadway

4.4 Local Plans was adopted in February 2016. The policies within these plans are (or have 4.4.1 Worcestershire is set to experience the potential to be) important justifers signifcant growth in terms of new for rail investment. dwellings and employment sites up to 2030. There are a number of Local Plans A review of the 3 Local Plans for which apportion this growth across the Worcestershire has highlighted that different regions of Worcestershire; approx. 47,200 new dwellings and 403ha ‘Wyre Forest’, ‘Bromsgrove & Redditch’ of new employment sites have been and ‘Wychavon, Worcester & allocated for the County (although Malvern Hills’ (covered by the South as noted above, not all of these plans Worcestershire Development Plan – have been adopted). The focus of this SWDP). growth is shown in Figure 4.2 above. It is clear to see that the development is All the Local Plans are at different stages focused along the key rail corridors in of review, with Wyre Forest currently the County. being developed (consultation on the Preferred Option closed in August 2017). Bromsgrove & Redditch Plans were adopted in January 2017 and the SWDP

45 4.4.2 South Worcestershire Development 4.4.3 The justifcation for this latter policy Plan notes that “integrated investment in transport infrastructure is required… The South Worcestershire Development to accommodate the growth in travel Plan 2016 (SWDP – adopted in February demand” and that some of the ways to 2016) contains a number of rail focused achieve this will be through “excellent statements and policies: access to improved regional and inter- city rail services” and the removal of • PARAGRAPH 75 (C) notes “rail network capacity and reliability “Important elements of the… rail pinch points”. network cross [the County] and have a very important bearing 4.4.4 These themes are further developed as on the area’s competitiveness follows: and attractiveness [in relation to employment]. This needs • SECTION 16 cites Worcestershire to be considered within a Parkway as one of the key ways in strategic planning context, to which the current poor quality rail ensure the future provision access to Birmingham, Bristol & and enhancement of the area’s Cardiff will be addressed; transport network is maximised”; • SECTION 18 cites access to • PARAGRAPH 75 (D) notes “Growth stations improvements within across south Worcestershire… will key County towns as a further place demands upon facilities that way to improve both accessibility serve a wide catchment area.” to the national rail network It further notes that rail (and and sustained modal shift from road) investment will be key to road to rail (with infrastructure supporting this growth; improvements around Droitwich Spa, Evesham, Worcester • SWDP [POLICY] 4 (J) notes four Shrub Hill, Malvern, Pershore & sites that will be safeguarded Hartlebury Stations prioritised in from development that would Appendix I); otherwise “prejudice future enhancements to the rail • SECTION 29 requires developers network” (these sites being to give serious consideration to Worcestershire Parkway Station, the impacts of their development Cotswold & Malvern Line, on the wider transport networks, Droitwich Spa to Stoke Works and including rail. Stratford to Honeybourne Line including the former Chord Lines 4.4.5 Within the SWDP it is clear that rail at Honeybourne Junction). is seen as an important enabler of development in the south of the County; investment in rail should be focused accordingly. It is important that other Local Plans currently under development also refect the value of rail investment.

46 4.5 Wider West Midlands Rail And Development 4.5.2 Greater Birmingham Housing Market Strategies Allocations

4.5.1 There are a number of other plans, The provision of new housing in the policies and inter-authority structures West Midlands is currently under which address, or are relevant to, rail review. As part of the review process, travel and the need for investment in the Planning Inspector has identifed a the West Midlands rail network: need for around 198,000 new dwellings in the Greater Birmingham Housing • Greater Birmingham Housing Market Area (HMA) between 2011 Allocations – which seek to and 2031 15 (the HMA stretches to the provide locations for Greater boundary of 16). Birmingham’s housing growth As the review progresses, the north outside of its borders, including in Worcestershire authorities may be Worcestershire; asked to accommodate at least some of this allocation although it should • West Midlands Strategic be noted that these fndings, and the Transport Plan 2017-2026 – quantum of allocations, are yet to covering the Metropolitan Area; be formally adopted. A more recent • West Midlands Rail Vision 2014 Objective Assessment of Housing – the most recent overarching Needs (April 2017) has stated that Wyre strategic vision for the network Forest District is to be considered as serving the West Midlands Travel a HMA in its own right and should not to Work Area (although this is due be allocated housing from the Greater to be updated during mid-late Birmingham area. 2017); The Greater Birmingham & Solihull • Midlands Connect Strategy: LEP (GBSLEP) and the Powering the Midlands Engine LEP (BCLEP) have agreed that any new 2017 – a broader alliance housing allocations external to the City of West Midlands and East should be focused on Urban Extensions Midlands authorities and Local and transport corridors. Enterprise Partnerships (including The 3 principal Worcestershire rail Worcestershire) examining corridors – Kidderminster, Bromsgrove strategic connectivity of rail and Redditch – may thus form a and road across and within the logical focus from this perspective. For 2 regions in order to improve Worcestershire sustainability of any transport connectivity and such development would depend upon thereby boost economic growth. maximising the service frequency and capacity of these 3 rail corridors.

15 EXAM_145_-_PBA_OAN_Report_March_2015.pdf 16 Strategic-Housing-Needs-Study-Stage-2-Report-Nov-14.pdf 47 4.5.3 West Midlands Strategic Transport Capacity, stations, rollingstock & Park Plan & Ride facilities remain mainstays of the STP along with a commitment to The West Midlands Strategic Transport work with regional partners to deliver Plan (STP) covers the period 2017 - the objectives. However, there are few 2026. Produced by Transport for West overt references to Worcestershire. Midlands to achieve their long-term WCC will continue working with the “Movement for Growth” vision. Its two WMCA to develop these objectives key principles are to: and provide stronger links between the County and West Midlands region. • Ensure all parts of the West Midlands region are plugged into 4.5.4 West Midlands Rail Vision the two new HS2 stations that will be delivered in the region. The West Midlands Rail Vision was published in Autumn 2014 by the • Deliver transport investment West Midlands Transport Authority along priority corridors to achieve on behalf of both the metropolitan new jobs & homes and the and surrounding and Unitary aims of the WMCA’s Strategic authorities. In taking a broader strategic Economic Plan perspective than the West Midland Local Transport Plan beyond the Whilst it is focused on Birmingham Metropolitan area, its focus was on: and the West Midlands Metropolitan Area it does have implications for • Preparation for West Midlands rail Worcestershire, the Plan noting devolution, now in progress; that TfWM will work with WCC to “ensure joined up transport strategy & • The opportunity represented by enhanced services for the Journey to HS2 to release capacity and re- Work area”. cast services; and

One of the Plan’s ‘Long Term Themes’ • As with Network Rail’s Markets is to achieve a ‘rail renaissance’ and Studies (Section 5.2), on the provide better local services, quality economic and jobs benefts the of passenger facilities, more seats and region’s railway network could longer trains. generate.

Rail links to Bromsgrove, Redditch, For Worcestershire the Vision discussed: Stourbridge, Kidderminster, Droitwich Spa and Worcester are seen as part • The potential benefts in access of the key passenger rail corridors to labour markets and jobs if a 5% into & out of the Midlands in order reduction in generalised journey to create a central ‘Hub’ for travel to times to Birmingham could be work and economic development. delivered (N.B. this is tested within The WMSTP notes that the features this Rail Investment Strategy – of these corridors should be speed, Section 5); capacity, permanence, integration and • Electrifcation of the Snow Hill accessibility and that Improvements Lines as an aspiration; should be sought to improve service frequency, reliability, operating hours • Stations needing step-free access and image and perception. – Great Malvern (surprisingly omitting Worcester Shrub Hill);

48 • A Zonal ticketing structure as Rail, , High Speed 2, aspired to by Worcestershire Central Government and the business County Council; community, developing a cross-West and East Midlands transport strategy, • The benefts of Worcester (sic) including both rail and roads. Parkway as a means of enhancing the County’s regional and national Both Worcestershire County Council connectivity. and Worcestershire Local Enterprise Partnership are members of Midlands In principally considering the regional Connect. networks feeding the West Midlands metropolitan area, the Vision did Midlands Connect’s frst piece of work not aim to address the strategic was undertaken by Atkins with its May Cross Country network in detail 2015 “Economic Impact Study” assessing (notwithstanding its reference to how modal shift to rail releases Worcestershire Parkway), nor was the economic benefts in terms of “business North Cotswold Line considered. As journey time savings”. The study such the Vision was not able to assess identifed broad development corridors Worcestershire’s role in a holistic within the 2 regions, and forecast high- manner. level economic benefts up to 2036. It has also investigated agglomerated West Midlands Rail is now developing benefts and labour market impacts in a this Vision through both a ‘Single similar way to the economic modelling Network Vision’ and its own Rail undertaken by SYSTRA within this Investment Strategy (due for adoption Worcestershire Rail Investment Strategy. in Spring 2018). This synergy between the economic The outputs from this Rail Investment modelling approaches of Network Rail’s Strategy may usefully be input into Markets Studies, Midlands Connect these strategies and WCC will continue and the SYSTRA model used in this Rail close working relationships to develop Investment Strategy is an important enhancements that will jointly feature supporting WCC’s future input contribute to the objectives of the into Midlands Connect’s ongoing work. WMCA and WCC. These will include: Worcestershire is included in 2 corridors • Additional on-train capacity and – Corridor 6 towards Bristol and standardised timetables: Corridor 6A towards Great Malvern, Hereford and Cardiff, as shown at • Stronger links between the Figure 4.3, although the North Cotswold County and West Midlands region Line is conspicuously absent despite (e.g. Stourbridge / Wythall etc.) its importance for Worcestershire’s • Later and more frequent services economy and connectivity. WCC, between Worcestershire and as a member of Midlands Connect, Birmingham (including from is seeking to address this oversight Bromsgrove / Kidderminster / through its ongoing work with the Redditch / Worcester). organisation. Up to £79m of economic growth and 19,000 new jobs are 4.5.5 Midlands Connect projected by 2036 through proposed rail journey time improvements. Midlands Connect is a collaboration of 28 local authorities, 11 Local Enterprise Partnerships, Network 49 Figure 4.3 – Midlands Connect Corridors (Source Midlands Connect Powering The Midlands Engine)

50 In April 2016 Midlands Connect “Picking Up the Pace” and the published “Picking up the Pace” to its subsequent full Midlands Connect constituent bodies as a positioning Strategy “Powering the Midlands statement in advance of its “Emerging” Engine”, which was published in March and “Full” Strategies which have since 2017, present overall strategic ambitions been published. Picking up the Pace set that are both wide and urgent in their out 2 broad rail network propositions: expression. However, other than in reference to the WLEP’s economic • Midlands Rail Capacity And ambitions, the strong manufacturing Connectivity Package – to base in Worcester and in illustrating “address the fundamental Worcestershire’s location almost as constraint to improved rail a ‘through-route’ along the Midlands services for the Midlands as a Connect Corridors, the County is little whole” noting that “progressing mentioned in either document. Its development of Midlands Rail relationships to the Thames Valley and Capacity and Connectivity London along the North Cotswold Line, Package is the highest rail priority the South West or the North Midlands for the Midlands”; are notably overlooked.

• Specifc Corridor Connectivity It has been assumed that Enhancements – for the Worcestershire is included in the overall Birmingham-Burton-Derby- Connectivity Package noted above, Nottingham, - and it features, albeit silently, in data and Birmingham-Leicester rail suggesting journey time improvements corridors. between Hereford, Great Malvern and Birmingham may generate £2.2m in GVA per annum (the latter being signifcantly lower than the GVA outputs from enhanced connectivity set out later in Sections 6 and 7 of this Rail Investment Strategy).

However it is vital that Worcestershire’s economically-driven rail connectivity needs are explicitly communicated, understood, and of signifcantly higher priority within the Midlands Connect process, particularly because these needs still appear to be under- addressed within Midlands Connect’s Strategy of March 2017. The priority for Worcstershire should be the inclusion of the North Cotswold Line as one of the Specifc Corridors for Connectivity Enhancements in addition to those already featuring within the “Picking up the Pace” publication.

51 5. Stage 3 – Rail Industry Plans & Gap Analysis 5.1 Rail Industry Context

Since 1994 the number of passenger journeys carried on the UK’s rail network has doubled, as shown on the graph at Figure 5.1.

Figure 5.1 Passenger Journeys On The UK Rail Network

1800 1600 1400 1200 1000

800 600

Millions of Journeysof Millions 400 200 0 002 002 006 010 950 950 954 958 962 966 970 974 978 982 986 990 994 998 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2

52 Surprisingly there is no clear industry The prospect of continuing growth in rail consensus on why this has happened. usage over the coming decades, driven by However, there are clearly some important continuing economic growth of the sort macro-economic factors, as well as action envisaged in the WLEP’s Strategic Economic the industry has taken to stimulate demand. Plan, led to the establishment of an industry But there has been a seminal change in the “Long Term Planning Process” (LTPP), managed attitude of the population to rail travel. There by Network Rail, but with wide involvement are a number of factors: from the industry and economic stakeholders. The intention is that this process will set out • There has been an increase in economic “choices for funders” (the principal but by no prosperity and consumer spending; means only one being Central Government) for potential inclusion in Network Rail’s • No major motorways have been Control Period 6 funding settlement built since the M6 Toll Road in 2003, (2019-2024) and in associated franchise following a decade of little motorway specifcations. investment; 5.2 West Midlands Rail Franchise • Average earnings until 2009 were going up faster than commuter fares, which In parallel, the Government is moving towards from privatisation until 2004 were increasing regional devolution, including for pegged to annual increases of RPI-1%; transport. Signifcant elements of the West Midlands Franchise have been specifed • House price increases mean that it is locally by West Midlands Rail, within which often economically sensible for people Worcestershire has a partnership role, ahead to live in a cheaper place and commute; of the start of the new West Midlands Rail • There has been substantial growth in Franchise in December 2017. Details have now the student population since the early been published of the important service 1990s, leading to growth in the number enhancements that will be delivered for of younger people using the train; Worcestershire.

• Train frequencies have increased, The Cross-City Line will beneft from: journey times have on many routes • Investment in more than 100 new reduced, and through-journey electric carriages, designed and opportunities have improved; dedicated to the Birmingham Cross-City • Customer service on much of the rail line extension to Bromsgrove, and to network has improved. be introduced from 2020 (pending the completion of the electrifcation of the The rail industry response to this growth line to Bromsgrove in December 2018). in patronage has resulted in a rail network This will deliver three electric trains which for all intents and purposes is now per hour between Birmingham and full. Signifcant sums have been invested Bromsgrove; by Network Rail over the last 15 years to increase the capacity and capability of the • Earlier and later services between network to support the increased demand. Redditch and Birmingham and between Similar investment has been made in new and Birmingham and Lichfeld; additional rolling stock. It is the case, however, • Increased Sunday frequency between that except at the margins, the introduction Birmingham and to provide of any new train service of value requires 4 services per hour Monday to Saturday investment in additional infrastructure and by December 2018 and by May 2021 3 to rolling stock to support it. Bromsgrove and 3 to Redditch; 53 • A robust strategy to deliver services The Birmingham Snow Hill line (Worcester during the autumn leaf-fall period; – Kidderminster - Birmingham – Stratford- upon-Avon – Leamington) will beneft by: • A service quality regime to improve stations, trains and customer service for • Carriages will be fully refurbished and passengers. supported by investment in 80 new diesel carriages, introduced from 2020 The Birmingham to Hereford (Birmingham and dedicated to operating services in – Bromsgrove – Worcester – Great Malvern and around Birmingham; – Hereford) line will beneft by: • Enhanced evening frequencies • An additional evening service from between Birmingham and Birmingham to Worcester, and an Kidderminster, Birmingham and earlier frst service from Worcester to Solihull, and Birmingham and Shirley Birmingham on Monday to Friday by in each direction Monday to Friday by December 2018; December 2018;

• Enhanced Saturday evening service • Enhanced frequencies by May 2021 on to provide a regular hourly service the Snow Hill lines on a Sunday with between Birmingham and Worcester by services from Birmingham increasing December 2018; to 2 trains per hour to Stratford-upon- Avon, 3 trains per hour to Shirley, 3 • Additional evening services between trains per hour to Solihull, 6 trains per Birmingham and Hereford in both hour to Stourbridge Junction with 4 directions on Saturdays by December extending to Kidderminster; 2018; • Earlier frst services on the Snow Hill • Enhanced frequency on Sundays lines by May 2021 on a Sunday. between Hereford and Birmingham with at least 5 additional services in each In addition, the role of regional bodies such direction by May 2021; as Local Enterprise Partnerships and Local Authorities in sponsoring and funding rail • Earlier frst services between improvements is increasing through the Birmingham and Hereford in both use of Regional Growth Fund monies and directions on Saturdays by May 2021. mechanisms such as prudential borrowing, illustrated by the approach developed for funding Worcestershire Parkway.

The impact of this political context on the balance of power for future industry developments is shown diagrammatically at Figure 5.2.

54 Figure 5.2 – Potential Changes In The Rail Industry ‘Balance Of Power’

DfT

ITAs/LAs Network Rail LEPs

Review of NR

5.3 Forecast Growth In Passenger Usage To 2023 Using the 97% growth factor on the Bristol- And 2043 Birmingham Corridor as an average prediction for Worcestershire, the impact of this Within the Long Term Planning Process, growth on daily passenger numbers and Markets Studies (2014) and Western Route car park capacity is shown at Table 5.3 – a Study (2015), Network Rail projected development of Table 3.2, with added car park passenger growth from a base in 2012 to 2023 capacity created at Worcestershire Parkway and to 2043. For Worcestershire there are (500 spaces in 2019). The fnal three columns in three key corridor forecasts: the table also show the desired number of car parking spaces for the County’s stations; both • Bristol To Birmingham Corridor – 40% in terms of the numbers needed to provide to 2023 and 97% to 2043; 2015/16 capacity at a sensible ratio of spaces • Long-Distance Services Into per passenger (1:4) and then uplifted with the Paddington – 29% to 2023 and 99% to same 97% growth factor to 2043. It should 2043; be noted that in the short-term, the opening of Worcestershire Parkway will cause some • West Midlands Services – 49% to 2023 abstraction of passengers from Worcester and 114% to 2043. Shrub Hill and Foregate Street stations but this will be readily reflled by suppressed demand that currently exists within the City.

55 Table 5.3 – Impact Of Growth To 2023/2043 On Station Passenger Numbers And Car Park Capacity Forecast Annual Daily Return 2015/16 Passengers 97% Growth Station Usage Passengers Car Park Per Car Park To 2043 2015/16 Capacity Space 2017 (14/15 base) Worcester Foregate Street 2,293,021 3,572 - n/a 4,348,789 Kidderminster 1,619,928 2,523 224 11 3,076,970 Redditch 1,002,294 1,561 196 8 1,695,519 Bromsgrove 619,880 966 251 4 1,121,343 Worcester Shrub Hill 618,467 963 121 8 1,172,942 Droitwich Spa 561,908 875 45 19 1,050,537 Great Malvern 557,012 868 122 7 1,070,100 Hagley 544,318 848 33 26 946,498 Worcestershire Parkway opens 2019 597 500 opens 2019 755,298 Malvern Link 344,232 536 96 6 617,646 Barnt Green 270,142 421 60 7 494,982 Evesham 255,476 398 70 6 488,016 Alvechurch 167,154 260 70 4 285,303 Pershore 100,690 157 17 9 187,760 Blakedown 97,028 151 10 15 180,645 Honeybourne 57,978 90 42 2 110,670 Wythall 55,044 86 - n/a 101,930 Hartlebury 50,088 78 20 4 77,519 Total COUNTY 9,214,660 14,951 1,877 8 17,782,467

Table 5.3 – Impact Of Growth To 2023/2043 On Station Passenger Numbers And Car Park Capacity (continued) Car park Number of Car park Number of spaces new spaces Growth Desired spaces new spaces Station needed needed since 2015/16 needed needed 2043 (15/16 2043 (15/16 2009/10 car park 2043 (15/16 2043 (15/16 capacity) capacity) capacity desired) desired) Worcester Foregate Street n/a n/a 54% n/a n/a n/a Kidderminster 441 217 22% 300 591 291 Redditch 384 188 17% 180 355 175 Bromsgrove 494 243 41% 350 690 340 Worcester Shrub Hill 238 117 -28% 150 296 146 Droitwich Spa 89 44 19% 70 138 68 Great Malvern 240 118 20% 150 296 146 Hagley 65 32 16% 33 (as is) 33 (as is) 0 Worcestershire Parkway 985 485 opens 2019 500 985 485 Malvern Link 189 93 38% 120 237 117 Barnt Green 118 58 22% 60 118 58 Evesham 138 68 25% 90 177 27 Alvechurch 138 68 21% 120 237 117 Pershore 33 16 71% 100 197 97 Blakedown 20 10 14% 40 79 39 Honeybourne 89 47 65% 90 177 87 Wythall n/a n/a 23% 0 n/a 0 Hartlebury 39 19 108% 40 79 39 Total COUNTY 3,702 1,825 32% 2,403 4,685 2,086 It is noted that GWR, WCC and Wychavon District Council are currently working on a detailed business case for car park expansion at Pershore Station that will refne these estimates of future year car parking requirements. 56 These levels of projected growth are 5.4 Route Studies, Long Term Planning Process remarkable, but not without substance given And Refranchising the fact there has been 32% growth across the Worcester stations since 2009/10, and Following the publication by Network Rail will need to be accommodated through of four national Market Studies in 2013 (Long continued rail investment if they are to be Distance; Regional-Urban; London & South realised. Stark impacts (against the 2013/14 East; Freight), a series of regional/route based baseline) include: studies is now underway under the Long Term Planning Process. • Dramatic volume increases by 2043 for Worcester Foregate Street and The frst purpose of the studies is to identify Kidderminster – respectively from circa a ‘direction of travel’ out to 2043 forecasting 3,500 to 6,800 passengers per day and the level of services and connectivity that from circa 2,500 to 5,000 passengers might be required at that point. These are per day; expressed as a series of “Conditional Outputs” – high level statements of frequencies, • A further 1,825 car park spaces are journey speeds, connectivity and capacity, required at County stations above those and in terms of an “Indicative Train Service additionally provided at Bromsgrove Specifcation”. This is a diagram showing train and Worcestershire Parkway simply to services that illustrate one possible way in retain the 2018 1 in 8 ratio of spaces to which the Conditional Outputs might be met. passengers (as discussed in more detail Worcestershire-related diagrams from the at 3.5.7). Western Route Study (2015) are shown later in this chapter at Tables 5.6, 5.7, 5.10 and 5.11. • A further 2,086 spaces would be needed at County Stations in order to The second purpose is to set out “Choices for achieve a desired 1 in 4 ratio of spaces Funders” for Network Rail’s Control Period 6 to passengers by 2043. (2019-24). These are lists of schemes that could be included as steps on the way towards delivery of the 2043 position, and could have a business case in the period out to 2024.

57 These Choices for Funders are intended to Recent developments since the WRIS was be for consideration by the Department drafted in summer 2016 have seen the for Transport (as well as other funders), for Government announce that the focus inclusion in its ‘High Level Output Statement’ of Control Period 6 work will now be on – what DfT seeks to buy from the rail maintenance and renewals, rather than industry – and Network Rail’s subsequent infrastructure enhancements and this funding settlement for Control Period 6 (2019 could have a direct impact on the County – 2024) (CP6). Inclusion of a scheme in a Route (depending on which schemes are taken Study does not therefore necessarily mean forward within the SoFA and which are it will happen, as the total of calls on the deferred until CP7 or beyond). enhancement budget will be greater than the available funds. The timetable for conclusion Combined with this announcement has been of the CP6 settlement is shown at Table 5.4. the publication of the Hansford Review, which This Rail Investment Strategy is timely in has made recommendations for Network Rail forming a base from which WCC can work to become more commercially competitive with the DfT and Network Rail to develop and for a greater emphasis on 3rd Party and deliver schemes planned for CP6 that are investment and delivery models in order to relevant to the County. deliver future enhancement schemes.

Table 5.4- HLOS Process For CP6

High Level Output Statement (HLOS) Timescales Process for CP6 Initial Industry Plan September 2016 HLOS / SoFA July 2017 (published) / awaited October 2017 Network Rail Business Plan Winter 2017 ORR Draft Determination Summer 2018 Start of Control Period 6 April 2019

58 In parallel with the conclusion of the CP6 settlement will be the renewal of various rail franchises, including those covering the Bristol to Birmingham Line, the West Midlands and the North Cotswold line. An integrated timetable of the re-franchising and Long Term Planning Process is shown at Table 5.5 below.

Table 5.5 – Rail Industry Planning Process Timetable Relevant To Worcestershire

Franchise or Route Study Consultation Timetable

Hendy Review – CP5 (2014-2019) – COMPLETE – Delivery Plan Published – Published January 2016 – Revised Enhancements Delivery Plan – Published March 2016 West Midlands and Chilterns Route Study – Consultation draft – Published June 2016 – Final version – Published July 2017 Post HS2 Timetable Work (“Capacity Plus”) – Consultation draft – “Winter” 2016 (awaited 2017) – Final version – “Autumn” 2017 (estimate 2017) West Midlands Franchise – Consultation on ITT – COMPLETE – ITT Issued – COMPLETE – Award – COMPLETE – Start – December 2017 West Coast Franchise – Consultation on ITT – COMPLETE – ITT Issued – “Autumn” 2017 – Award – November 2018 (estimate) – Start – April 2019 Wales & Borders Franchise – Consultation on ITT – COMPLETE – ITT Issued – COMPLETE – Award – June 2018 – Start – October 2018 Great Western Franchise – Consultation on ITT – August 2017 (awaited) – ITT Issued – February 2018 – Award – December 2019 – Start – April 2019 Cross Country Franchise – Consultation on ITT – April 2018 – ITT Issued – August 2018 – Award – July 2019 – Start – October 2019 DfT HLOS (High Level Output Statement) Process for CP6 (2019-2024) – Initial Industry Plan – COMPLETE (dependent on the Shaw Review) – HLOS / SoFA – Published July 2017 / October 2017 – Network Rail Business Plan – Winter 2017 – ORR Draft Determination – Summer 2018 Chiltern Franchise – Consultation on ITT – May 2020 – ITT Issued – October 2020 – Award – August 2021 – Start – December 2021 59 If the recommended outputs from this 5.6 Western Route Study Investment Strategy are to be realised then ongoing development work will need to align The Conditional Outputs of the Western with these rail industry planning timescales. Route Study relevant to Worcestershire are Registering priorities for investment during described below and illustrated at Figures 5.6 the consultation stages allows the industry – 5.11. time to refect on, and incorporate changes 5.6.1 Worcester – Oxford – London into, the franchise or study specifcations. Paddington The fndings of the Hansford review are also welcome as they provide greater opportunity The Route Study refers to the Long for WCC and its partners to work with Distance Markets Study’s Conditional the industry to develop and deliver the Output of “2 to 3 trains per hour at WRIS enhancement schemes, potentially 100mph”’ between Worcester and sooner than Network Rail will be able to London Paddington. In its interpretation manage - to the beneft of the industry and of this it defnes the 2043 Route Study Worcestershire residents alike. Conditional Output as:

5.5 Network Rail Route Studies Relevant To • 2 trains per hour Worcester – Worcestershire London Paddington;

Worcestershire’s rail network is addressed in • 2 trains per hour Worcester – two Route Studies; the Western Route Study, Oxford. which was published in fnal form in August 2015, and the West Midlands & Chiltern Study, It recommends that one of the the draft consultation for which was held Worcester-London Paddington services soon after completion of the frst draft of the is routed via Cheltenham Spa and Rail Investment Strategy in June 2016. Swindon (not stopping at Gloucester, to ensure that the journey time is The boundary of the two Studies is Norton competitive) and the second via the Junction/Abbotswood Junction in the vicinity North Cotswold Line and Oxford. of Worcestershire Parkway. The North The second train per hour between Cotswold Line and Bristol to Birmingham Worcester and Oxford is proposed as Line are addressed within the Western Route an additional stopping service. Study, and the Hereford-Great Malvern- Worcester-Kidderminster-Bromsgrove- In respect of the Worcester-London 2 Birmingham and Redditch-Birmingham routes tph service, the Study notes that “this within the West Midlands Route Study area. is only one possible means of meeting the Conditional Output. It would be Many of the issues are common to both possible to route the additional train study areas because of the overlap of train via Oxford should improvements be services and this again refects the need for made to the North Cotswold route; a the industry to more broadly recognise the train routed that way could potentially concept of “One Economy / One Railway”. offer faster journey times than via Cheltenham.”

The Route Study’s graphical presentations of its proposals are shown at Figures 5.6-5.7. It should be noted that these diagrams were produced by Network Rail and are based on their Route Study templates.

60 Figure 5.6 – Western Route Study Indicative Train Service Specifcation (ITSS) Worcester-Bristol Parkway

Figure 5.7 – Western Route Study ITSS Worcester- Oxford (Source For Both Figures – Network Rail)

61 Acknowledging that Figures 5.6 and 5.7 are diffcult to interpret, Figure 5.8 illustrates a simplifed interpretation of the Route Study’s proposals as train services per hour between Worcester and Oxford and Worcester and London.

Figure 5.8 – Interpretation Of Network Rail’s Western Route Study Worcester-Oxford-London Conditional Output 17

Each line represents 1 train per hour

The stopping pattern of the 2 North Councils) both in failing to provide a Cotswold Line services is indicative 2 tph London service and through- only, representing a ‘1 Fast/Express and services to London from smaller 1 Stopping’ train concept, similar to that Worcestershire (and Oxfordshire) developed on the stations. This is a core ‘gap’ in the Route Birmingham Snow Hill – London Study’s proposals. WCC’s indicative Marylebone route, and a concept preferred service is very clearly based supported in the Joint Vision “Vision on 2 tph direct to London and an for the North Cotswold Railway Line” example service pattern is shown at (Section 4.3.5). Figure 5.9, although further investigation is necessary to confrm the fnal A terminating service at Oxford is stopping pattern (Oxfordshire County however unlikely to be acceptable Council’s desire for 3 tph between to Worcestershire County Council Hanborough and Oxford is also shown). (or Gloucestershire and Oxfordshire

17 It should be noted that under Network Rail’s proposals the second train to London, via Cheltenham Spa, would not be able to call at Worcestershire Parkway due to the nature of the line splitting south at Norton Junction and prior to Worcestershire Parkway Station. 62 Figure 5.9 – Worcestershire County Council Preferred North Cotswold Line Train Service

Each line represents 1 train per hour

Dashed line indicates fnal destinations beyond Oxford and Hanborough to be determined

In assessing the potential for 2 tph • Faster electric running times between Worcester and Oxford the between Oxford, Didcot and Route Study makes clear that this London Paddington; can only be accommodated on the single lines west of Evesham and • The ‘1 Fast/Express and 1 Stopping east of Charlbury at the absolute train per hour’ concept shown at maximum limit of performance. Figures 5.8 and 5.9. Therefore infrastructure work would These uncertainties within the Route be required to re-double some or all Study were one of the drivers behind of the remaining single line sections. the establishment of the North No comment is made about the likely Cotswold Line Task Force, which by its year in which demand would justify formation brings a focus to achieving the increase in service over the current the “Vision for the North Cotswold 1 tph. It is expected that the service Line” within a reasonable and defned would be operated by bi-mode IEPs. timescale. There is some emerging concern that the sectional running times of bi-mode IEPs will be similar to current HST timings and slower than current Class 180 timings between Worcester and Oxford. As a result, improvements in Worcester to London journey times are most likely to be achieved via:

63 5.6.2 Bristol To Birmingham Line • Alternative Specifcation

The Western Route Study addresses - 1 tph Bristol-Manchester and the Bristol to Birmingham Line as 1 tph Plymouth-Newcastle/ far as Abbotswood Junction, east of Edinburgh as per the Base; Worcester. It defnes both the local service specifcations within the Bristol - 1 tph Cardiff-Bristol and Cardiff to Worcester Corridors Parkway-Birmingham to and the long-distance strategic services Manchester or i.e. 3 between the West of England, South tph between Cheltenham Wales, Birmingham and onwards to and Birmingham on the north-west and north-east England. Worcestershire Parkway route (as 2017); Again, based on the Markets Study’s Conditional Outputs for 2043, it - 1 tph Cardiff-Nottingham presents a Base Indicative Train Service diverted via Worcester Specifcation, but in this case adds a Shrub Hill and 1 tph Cardiff- cheaper alternative: Worcester (and possibly on to Great Malvern);

- 1 tph Swindon-Worcester • Base Specifcation Shrub Hill-Birmingham- as per - 1 tph Bristol-Manchester and the Base. 1 tph Plymouth-Newcastle/ Edinburgh (as 2017);

- 1 tph Cardiff-Nottingham (as 2017) via Worcestershire Parkway; These 2 specifcations are illustrated at Figures 5.10 and 5.11. - 2 tph Cardiff-Bristol Parkway-Birmingham to Manchester or Leeds i.e. 5 tph between Cheltenham and Birmingham on the Worcestershire Parkway route;

- 1 train every 2 hours Cardiff- Worcester-Great Malvern;

- 1 tph Swindon-Worcester Shrub Hill-Birmingham- North West England (thus providing 2 tph Swindon- Worcester when taken together with its proposed 1 tph Paddington-Swindon- Cheltenham- Worcester).

64 Figure 5.10 – Bristol-Birmingham Line 2043 Itss: Base Specifcation (As Figure 5.3 Above)

Figure 5.11 – Bristol-Birmingham Line 2043 ITSS: Alternative Specifcation 18

18 It should be noted that both of these diagrams have been extracted from the Network Rail Route Study and the marginal importance given to Worcestershire Parkway within the diagrams is refective of the fact the Route Studies were produced before the new Station was a committed scheme. 65 These 2 specifcations offer • Worcester – Bristol Services considerable food for thought from – Apparent replacement by the Worcestershire perspective, in Worcester to Cardiff services. particular: These are refected upon further • South-West To North-West And in Chapter 7 where the WCC’s own North-East England Services prospective Conditional Outputs are – The assumption that the prioritised. Bristol-Manchester and Plymouth- Newcastle Cross Country 5.7 West Midlands And Chilterns Route services have a clear role to 2043 Study notwithstanding the HS2 Phase The fnal West Midlands and Chilterns Route 2 extension beyond Birmingham Study was published in July 2017. Within to North-West and North-East the Study consideration has been given to England after 2033; both being the need for additional capacity between potential services for the County Bromsgrove / Redditch & Birmingham, and to access at Worcestershire Hereford - Worcester - Birmingham to meet Parkway; demand up to 2043 along with improving • Cardiff To North-West And compatibility with the Midlands Connect North-East England Services strategies and the development of the – The further opportunity Midlands Rail hub. represented with the Base The Route Study notes around £30m of Specifcation’s 2 trains per hour economic benefts and approximately 2,000 between Cardiff, Birmingham new jobs could be realised by 2026 if a 20% and North-West and North-East improvement in rail generalised journey times England, again in the context of were achieved. It also notes that the two Worcestershire Parkway; routes from Worcestershire into and out of • New Connectivity For Worcester Birmingham (Snow Hill Lines and Bromsgrove - Shrub Hill – The opportunity Worcester - Hereford Lines) will be at or over for Worcester Shrub Hill to offer capacity by 2023 in the peak hours and then direct services both to Swindon full and standing from Worcester northwards and north-west and north-east by 2043. England (note that train services To address this, the Route Study puts forward between Worcestershire Parkway train lengthening as a short-term capacity and Worcester Shrub Hill will also solution - recommending 33 new train offer the potential for a ‘shuttle vehicles will be needed to serve Bromsgrove link’ between the City and new & Redditch and 36 to serve Worcester / Parkway Station); Stourbridge however only 2 extra to serve • Cardiff To Nottingham Hereford via Bromsgrove. Services – The implications of In the longer term (to 2043), the Route Study the Alternative Specifcation’s “unconstrained Indicative Train Service apparent diversion of the Cardiff- Specifcation” proposes a number of service Nottingham service via Worcester enhancements (it should be noted that these Shrub Hill – positive for Shrub options aren’t linked to the service patterns Hill but requiring clarity regarding that could actually be delivered based on other strategic services calling at existing infrastructure constraints): Worcestershire Parkway;

66 • 2 trains per hour between Hereford - capacity and consistency of calling patterns at Worcester - Birmingham; both Shrub Hill and Foregate Street.

• 5 trains per hour between Worcester - Worcester Area infrastructure west of Norton Birmingham (1 fast); Junction is absent from the Western Route Study. This is because Network Rail and • 8 trains per hour between Bromsgrove - the TOCs have agreed that the Hereford – Birmingham. Worcester – Birmingham route would be better included within the West Midlands & On the Snow Hill lines, it proposes 2 semi-fast Chilterns Route Study because around 70% of and 2 stopping services between Worcester - passenger fows are Birmingham-bound. Kidderminster - Birmingham. Now published in fnal form, the West On the Hereford - Bromsgrove - Birmingham Midlands and Chilterns Route Study assumes Line, the Route Study then identifes some that the Henwick Turnback will be completed of the key infrastructure constraints that during 2019 and proposes the following track would prevent these service options from layout enhancements in the Worcester Area: being delivered - including the single track constraints between Hereford & Worcester • Double tracking the Droitwich to and the capacity constraints between Barnt Worcester Foregate Street curve with Green and King’s Norton. Various track, new crossovers between Rainbow Hill signalling and electrifcation enhancements Junction and Foregate Street Station; are then put forward to address these capacity issues (although frm commitments • New crossover at Worcester Shrub Hill are not made as to when these would be after Tunnel Junction; provided). • Improved turnback capability in the Similarly on the Snow Hill Lines, the Route Malvern area. Study notes the slow journey times between Kidderminster & Worcester and that train The Route Study also recognises that signalling lengthening is only a short-term capacity renewals in the Area are required (noting that solution. In the longer term, the Route Study it is a once in 30 year opportunity). The draft proposes infrastructure enhancements in the Route Study proposed that the renewals area but these are high-level were undertaken during CP6 with the aspirations, currently at the GRIP1 stage. aforementioned track enhancements further developed as part of the signalling renewals It also promotes the need for a new chord project. at Boardesley to allow increased usage of Birmingham Moor Street in order to better However, the fnal version of the Route integrate services with High Speed 2 - Study now proposes works only to extend including those from Worcestershire. the life of the assets through the end of CP6. Enhancing Worcester area capacity is one of 5.8 Worcester Area Re-Modelling And the core Conditional Outputs of the WRIS Re-Signalling and it is a key deliverable under consideration by the North Cotswold line Task Force. Early As noted at Section 3.5.2 the Worcester Area stage discussions regarding the viability of is signifcantly constrained by the mechanical bringing these enhancements forward have signalling and the track rationalisation therefore begun between WCC and Network undertaken in the 1960s and 1970s. Re- Rail. connecting the independent single lines through Worcester Foregate Street is an absolute priority to increase fexibility,

67 5.9 Electrifcation – Bristol To Birmingham Line, Electrifcation of the North Cotswold Line Snow Hill Lines And ‘’ was not envisaged, with the assumption that the bi-mode capability of the InterCity The Network Rail Markets Studies, Route Express trains will meet the route’s Studies and the Hendy Review all looked requirements. forward to further electrifcation aspirations after completion of the Great Western In July 2017 the Secretary of State Main Line scheme, drawing upon the DfT’s for Transport announced that future High Level Output Statement for CP5 (2014- electrifcation schemes other than partial 2019) which envisaged a rolling programme completion of Great Western Main Line of further electrifcation, and the parallel electrifcation would be put on hold Network Rail ‘Electrifcation Route Utilisation indefnitely. Study’ of 2009. Figure 5.13 illustrates the previously The Western Route Study Consultation committed electrifcation schemes relevant Draft (October 2014) envisaged potential to the County (in green) and the aspirations electrifcation schemes including: that were noted in in the Draft Western Route Study (blue). Figure 5.14 illustrates the • Bristol to Birmingham – including the revised picture of electrifcation following Worcester Loop from Abbotswood the DfT’s announcement in November 2016 Junction to Shrub Hill, Foregate Street, to defer completion of four sections of the Droitwich Spa and Stoke Works GWML until CP6 (2019 – 2024) and the July Junction; 2017 announcement by DfT putting all future schemes on indefnite hold. • Swindon to Cheltenham and Gloucester to Junction (for Cardiff); WCC will now need to work closely with the rail industry to fully explore the implications • Chiltern Route and Snow Hill Lines; of these scaled back proposals, both in terms • Worcester to Great Malvern and of alternative solutions to the connectivity Hereford; and capacity benefts lost in the scaling-back and the revised rolling stock cascade that was • ‘Electric Spine’ covering the previously expected following electrifcation. Southampton-Reading-Oxford- Leamington-Coventry- and ‘East-West’ Oxford to Milton Keynes route.

68 Figure 5.12 – Committed And Aspirational Electrifcation Schemes

19

Figure 5.13 – 2016 (and updated following the Government’s announcement in July 2017)

19

19 HLOS/Route Study Electrifcation aspirations now on indefnite hold 69 5.10 HS2 And Wider Connectivity

5.10.1 HS2 is being delivered in two phases; the frst from London to Birmingham, with an expected completion date of 2026, and the second phase in two arms beyond Birmingham, the western portion leading to Manchester and the eastern portion to Leeds by 2033. Phase 2A, from Lichfeld to is now expected to be delivered early (around 2027).

Figure 5.14 – Intended HS2 Network (Source: HS2 Limited)

70 HS2 will deliver 2 key transformative 5.10.2 HS2 And Worcestershire outputs: The benefts of HS2 for Worcestershire • UK-Wide Journey Times – HS2 are mixed. The key issues are: will radically reduce journey times from the West Midlands, not only • West Midlands Network to London, but to a whole series Capacity – the released capacity of destinations in the “Northern on the West Coast Main Line may Powerhouse” – Manchester, open up opportunities for revised Sheffeld, Leeds and Derby/ use of Birmingham New Street, Nottingham – and onwards to directly relevant to the operation ; of the Cross City Line;

• New Capacity And Journey • Connections To HS2 At Opportunities On The Classic Birmingham Curzon Street – Network – HS2 will, in effect, for the Snow Hill Lines direct transfer the fastest long-distance connectivity will be excellent services from the West Coast, with Birmingham Moor Street Midland and East Coast Main becoming an integrated part Lines to HS2, releasing substantial of Curzon Street Station; for capacity on those routes – and Bromsgrove route connectivity by direct implication on the West from Birmingham New Street will Midlands regional network – for continue to impose a journey growth, and allowing timetable time penalty and the general re-casts to facilitate new journey unattractiveness of need to cross opportunities currently not between the 2 stations; possible. For example, HS2 could • Access To Birmingham allow the WCML timetable to be Interchange (Adjacent To recast to allow 2 fast tph between Birmingham International) Birmingham New Street and – it is not unlikely that many Milton Keynes (currently only 1 Worcestershire passengers would fast tph is possible). seek to access Birmingham On behalf of the Department for Interchange via the M5 and Transport, Network Rail is currently M42 as they do to Birmingham examining the potential for revised and International and Warwick re-cast services on the West Coast Parkway now, with the resultant Main Line from 2026 when HS2 Phase further pressure on the motorway 1 opens with particular reference to network; towns currently bypassed by long- distance services, such as Rugby and , and fows such as Birmingham-Milton Keynes which currently has only 1 fast train service per hour. The study, known as ‘Capacity Plus’, has been drafted, but not yet published at the time of writing.

71 • Impact On Cross Country 5.11 Gap Analysis Network – HS2’s beneft to Worcestershire thus depends on 5.11.1 Table 5.16 summarises the Gap Analysis connectivity between stations between the current service provision, in Birmingham or road access committed rail industry schemes, the to ; the industry’s 2043 vision and the desired thrust of the Worcestershire key improvements that are driven by Parkway scheme and the Worcestershire’s economic needs, as Conditional Outputs of this identifed in Stage 2 above. For each Rail Investment Strategy is to issue identifed there are ‘enabling’ have the long-distance Cross actions with a number of common Country network directly serve industry planning and infrastructure the County and this not to be themes that refect the existing compromised by HS2 leading bottlenecks on the rail network to, from to any loss of connectivity to and within Worcestershire as well as its the North-West and North-East location towards the edges of different England; organisational zonal boundaries both within British Rail and since privatisation. • Pre-Opening Beneft – there exists the opportunity for 5.11.2 Common Planning Gaps Worcestershire rail services • Connectivity To London And to accommodate (and retain) The Thames Valley Via The demand from passengers North Cotswold Line – Rail displaced from West Coast industry planning offers little Mainline (and other) services sense of programme urgency in disrupted during the construction developing a 2 trains per hour of HS2. A similar phenomenon service along the North Cotswold was experienced by Chiltern Line (the aspiration is to have Railways during the mid-2000’s delivered this upgrade by 2033); when the West Coast Mainline the Western Route Study offers route modernisation took place. uncertainty about routing services This is especially pertinent to the via Oxford or Cheltenham Spa 2018-2021 period when capacity (the latter NOT supported in this into Euston Station will be Rail Investment Strategy) and it affected just as Worcestershire does not consider the benefts Parkway and the IEP service to be offered by connectivity to commences. East-West at Oxford. The NCLTF has been established to tackle this lack of urgency given the criticality of these improvements for the County;

72 • Worcestershire-Birmingham • Electrifcation – the refreshed Connectivity – rail industry Network Rail Electrifcation Route planning offers none of the Study will now need to be heavily ambition for generalised journey revised following the DfT’s July time improvements towards 2017 announcements regarding Birmingham from the County the future of electrifcation and that is contained, for example, in WCC eagerly awaits the fndings Midlands Connect’s approach; in order to better understand the implications for Worcestershire. • Strategic UK-Wide Connectivity – Notwithstanding the • Access To The Rail Network implementation of Worcestershire And Stations – The Long Parkway, rail industry planning Term Planning Process and does not address the City of the Route Studies are silent Worcester’s or the County’s on car park capacity, which as access to the strategic Cross discussed at 3.5.6 is a structural Country services to South-West, barrier to passenger growth in North-West and North-East Worcestershire; hence industry England; planning also assumes new station proposals will solely be • Connectivity To Bristol – Rail generated by third parties. In the industry planning offers no case of the County’s 2 largest ambition for direct, frequent stations – Worcester Foregate connectivity between Worcester Street and Shrub Hill – there is City or the wider County, acknowledgment of the need Cheltenham Spa, Gloucester and to enhance capacity within the Bristol; indeed the Western Route stations themselves but little Study appears to suggest the detail about how this would be limited 2-hourly connectivity of achieved. 2016 could be directed towards Cardiff as an alternative; A common feature of the Gap Analysis is the need to work closely • Wyre Forest And Bromsgrove with the rail industry to understand Southbound Connectivity – how Worcestershire’s ambitions can Rail industry planning focuses be delivered within the context of upon these areas’ northbound DfT’s Control Period 6 (2019-2014) High connectivity to Birmingham; Level Output Statement, Network whilst this is vital, economic Rail’s CP6 Industry Plan, re-franchising regeneration, particularly in Wyre specifcations and the ongoing Long Forest, requires attention to term Planning Process, given the shift in connectivity towards the South focus of CP6 work to now be on asset West and London; maintenance and renewals rather than delivering enhanced infrastructure.

73 5.11.3 Common Infrastructure Gaps • Worcester Shrub Hill – to understand how best to The rail infrastructure gaps within accommodate passenger growth Worcestershire are suffciently well- generated by more train services known and understood by the rail operating through the station industry and all its key stakeholders that (whether proposed by the a lack of priority and urgency can be Western Route Study or this Rail generated by familiarity. Investment Strategy);

Infrastructure is not an end in itself • Droitwich Spa To Stoke Works but a means to an end, and this Rail – re-doubling and re-signalling to Investment Strategy is driven by setting facilitate more frequent service to out the economic case for service Birmingham New Street; improvements. The key common infrastructure gaps constraining • Remodelling Abbotswood Worcestershire’s rail services – and Junction – to increase capacity the Conditional Outputs tested and through the junction; discussed at Sections 6 and 7 – include: • Improving Car Parking And • North Cotswold Line Single Highway Access – to address Line Sections – partial or full re- existing suppressed demand and doubling required to facilitate a 2 provide capacity for growth; trains per hour service to London; • Electrifcation – as noted at 5.8. • Worcester Re-Modelling And Re-Signalling – to remove the capacity constraints caused by the single line sections within the Foregate St-Tunnel Junction-Shrub Hill area and mechanical signalling;

74 Table 5.15 – Gap Analysis Of Worcestershire’s Rail Provision

CURRENT GAP ENABLERS OF CHANGE DESIRED OUTPUT

Worcester – London • 2tph Worcester – Oxford INCLUDED AS OPTION Minimum 1tph journey times are slow; IN WESTERN ROUTE STUDY, with one of these Worcester – London typical average speed Worcester-London making fewer stops in c.1 hour 50mins 52mph • Worcester re-signalling • Some additional redoubling of North Cotswold Line • Inclusion in GWR 2019 franchise specifcation Only 1tph Worcester – • 2 tph INCLUDED AS OPTION IN WESTERN 2tph Worcester – London ROUTE STUDY, with one service operating via London Cheltenham. • Worcester re-signalling • Remodelling of Abbotswood Junction • Inclusion in franchise specifcation Worcestershire is not • Worcestershire Parkway opens up direct access to Direct Worcestershire part of the long-distance Cross Country Bristol-Manchester and Plymouth- Rail Connectivity to network. Limited regional Newcastle services key UK economies and national connectivity • 2 tph Worcester-Oxford-London Paddington and maximised value other than via changes at • INCLUSION WITH DfT CP6 HLOS of connections to Birmingham New Street. HS2 at Birmingham • Potential Worcester Shrub Hill service to Bristol and Cardiff INCLUDED AS OPTION IN WESTERN ROUTE STUDY • Worcester/Abbotswood re-modelling-re-signalling • East-West Rail Interchange at Oxford • High quality interchange between Birmingham New St and Moor St and HS2 Curzon Street Worcester – Birmingham • Introduction of Bromsgrove service as part Faster service journey times are slow, of Cross-City line opens up the possibility of between Worcester typical speed 57mph (1tph accelerating direct services between Worcester and Birmingham via Bromsgrove) and Birmingham New Street. • Droitwich-Stoke Works doubling Kidderminster – Birmingham • Remodelling of Snow Hill lines timetable to Faster service journey times are slow, separate short distance stopping services from between typical speed 33mph “inter-regional” trains Kidderminster and Birmingham

(table continued overleaf) 75 Table 5.15 – Gap Analysis Of Worcestershire’s Rail Provision (continued)

CURRENT GAP ENABLERS OF CHANGE DESIRED OUTPUT

Limited peak-only • GWML electrifcation , IEP trains and 1 tph North Hourly services direct services between Cotswold Line service could be extended to KID between Kidderminster and London or SBJ Kidderminster and • INCLUSION WITHIN CP6 DfT HLOS London, via Oxford or • Inclusion in GWR franchise specifcation Birmingham • Worcester/Abbotswood re-modelling-re-signalling Kidderminster – only • INCLUDED AS OPTION IN WESTERN ROUTE Direct southbound available southbound STUDY (Cardiff-Nottingham option) services to destinations are Worcester • Birmingham – Bristol and Snow Hill Lines Cheltenham, Bristol, and Great Malvern Electrifcation Oxford and London • New Birmingham-KID-Worcester-Bristol service Paddington • New Kidderminster-London Paddington service • Worcester /Abbotswood re-modelling-re- signalling Bromsgrove has a very • Birmingham – Bristol Electrifcation Direct southbound limited southbound • New Birmingham-Bromsgrove-Worcester-Bristol services from service other than hourly service Bromsgrove to to Worcester and Great • Droitwich-Stoke Works doubling Cheltenham and Malvern and Hereford and 1 Bristol • INCLUSION WITHIN CP6 DfT HLOS train per day to Cardiff Redditch is the end of • Inclusion of an interchange on Cross-City service Access to direct the Cross City Line. No in franchise specifcation southbound services southbound service • Good quality road access to Bromsgrove or to Worcester, Worcestershire Parkway Cheltenham, Bristol Lack of car parking and • Worcestershire Parkway Adequate car parking, access points to the • Redevelopment of Shrub Hill station to improve and easy access to network accessibility and sustainable access to the City the network from all • Additional parking at appropriate existing stations parts of the County. (including identifcation via specifc parking studies) Possible new stations • Identifcation of new access points to the network

(table continued overleaf) 76 Table 5.15 – Gap Analysis Of Worcestershire’s Rail Provision (continued)

CURRENT GAP ENABLERS OF CHANGE DESIRED OUTPUT

The dynamics of Worcester • Masterplan for Shrub Hill station High quality gateways, do not work. Foregate • Worcestershire Parkway easily accessible from Street and Shrub Hill are of • Consideration of new rail access provisions (such all parts of Worcester poor quality, and diffcult as a parkway station West of Worcester) to serve and the surrounding to access. West of the River west of river developments & avoid the need to area Severn, there are major cross the City (initial feasibility work has suggested residential areas, with 2,500 this could be in the area). more houses to come Rail fares system is • Meet with DfT, West Midlands Rail and the More advanced confusing and in many relevant TOCs to set out WCC’s objectives purchase fares to cases ticket prices offer regarding rail fares improvements drive up demand, poor value for money. This • Develop a new approach to London Fares harmonisation of can deter passengers from refecting the post 2018 NCL timetable changes Worcestershire fares travel, create mistrust and • Develop a new approach to Cross-Country fares in line with West encourage use of non- following the opening of Worcestershire Parkway Midlands regional sustainable modes. charges, ‘Greater • Creation of a Worcestershire ‘zonal’ fares system. Worcester’ banded tickets to harmonise prices. Great Malvern has limited • Worcester – Abbotswood remodelling and Enhanced frequency connections to Birmingham re-signalling of services between and London • Implementation of digital signalling between Great Malvern and Worcester and Great Malvern Birmingham / London

77 6. Stage 4 – Economic Testing Of Connectivity Options 6.1 The GVA And Jobs Model The SYSTRA model focuses upon two key components: One of the key components of the Rail Investment Strategy has been the work • Agglomeration – GVA uplift and new undertaken by consultants SYSTRA to jobs generated through enhanced examine the wider economic benefts for a productivity of businesses and workers number of options to improve rail services being more easily accessible to each across Worcestershire. The benefts have via faster transport connectivity; been derived using an updated version of the this is empirically derived from the Market Studies model frst used by Network relationship between the change in Rail in 2013. Generalised Journey Cost (GJC) of business travel and GVA via better The bespoke GVA / jobs model used transport connectivity. for this analysis combines metrics of economic activity and projected growth These new jobs are expressed as one number with train service enhancements based on for each assessed origin and destination improvements to generalised journey time together, and are thus overall jobs benefts to (frequency x journey time). Direct train the UK-wide economy; services score much higher than services that require a change of train because the latter • Accessibility And Regeneration: attracts a signifcant time penalty. The model Labour Supply Jobs – the number of then derives a GVA value for the enhanced committed jobs that will be facilitated business to business activity that would be by changes in rail capacity generated generated by the new services. The model by new services, expressed as number also produces a forecast for the number of of peak seats. These are jobs specifc to new jobs created (note job creations are ‘one- Worcestershire. off’ whereas GVA is per annum). It is important to recognise that the In assessing rail service enhancements in model does NOT include many elements these terms, rather than as project specifc traditionally forming part of rail scheme Beneft-Cost Ratios (BCR), the GVA/Jobs business cases, such as: model is innovative, being consistent with • New or abstracted rail trips (effectively but extending beyond the Department for an assessment of the net increase in Transport’s WebTAG guidance and existing rail capacity on a service or route); industry tools such as the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH). • Financial benefts of fares, car parking (including the beneft:cost ratio) etc.; This mirrors the approach being taken by Network Rail (in its 2013 Market Studies) and • Environmental benefts such as Midlands Connect, where both bodies are reductions in emissions and air quality similarly seeking to understand the wider improvements; economic benefts of rail schemes. • Highway decongestion benefts.

78 All of these important considerations will 6.2 The Connectivity Tests be required to be taken into account during subsequent development stages. However, The options assessed as part of the economic the priority within this WIRS is to identify modelling have been driven in response to the measures that will best support economic gaps identifed within Worcestershire’s current growth and development in the County in an connectivity via its rail service. For each of industry recognised format. the 10 options tested, two scenarios were considered:

• Services introduced within December 2015 Working Timetable (given the timing of the original WRIS work);

• December 2015 Timetable with the inclusion of an operational Worcestershire Parkway.

The 10 services options tested are shown at Table 6.1:

Table 6.1 – Identifed Train Service Improvements For Worcestershire

Option Service Route Routing Via 1TPH 2TPH Notes

Option 1 Worcester – London Oxford (2hrs (1hr Inc. JT reductions shown Paddington 15mins) 50mins) Option 2 Worcester – Cambridge Oxford & X X – East-West Rail Option 3 Worcester – Birmingham Bromsgrove (2TPH) X X Inc. JT reductions shown Option 4 Birmingham – – X X – Kidderminster – Worcester – Cheltenham Spa – Bristol Option 5 Birmingham – Bromsgrove – X X – – Worcestershire Parkway (WRP) – Cheltenham Spa – Bristol Option 6 Kidderminster – Birmingham – X – – – London Marylebone Option 7 Kidderminster – Worcester – X – – – Evesham – Oxford – London Paddington Option 8 Worcester – Evesham X – – – Stratford – Solihull – Birmingham Option 9 Manchester – Bristol Worcestershire X – In addition to those Parkway services initially planned to call at WRP Option 10 Plymouth – Edinburgh Worcestershire X – In addition to Option 9 Parkway 79 The rationale for each of these tests was • Option 6 – Kidderminster To London developed within the proposal for this Rail Marylebone Via Birmingham Investment Strategy, and then agreed with WCC, and is repeated here for information: Examining the value of Kidderminster/ Wyre Forest connectivity with London • Option 1 – Worcester, Evesham, if a 1 tph service to London Marylebone Oxford, Reading (For Heathrow) And were achievable; London Paddington • Option 7 – Kidderminster To London A key test to evidence the case for Paddington Via Droitwich Spa And a transformed 2 tph, faster North Worcester Cotswold Line service with new InterCity Express trains; data exists from Examining the value of Kidderminster/ the Worcestershire Parkway scheme – Wyre Forest connectivity with 1 tph to testing here provides the data within London Paddington as an alternative, one consistent County-wide model; with the additional value of Droitwich- London; • Option 2 – Worcestershire To Milton Keynes And Cambridge • Option 8 – Worcester – Evesham – Stratford – Solihull – Birmingham Measuring the opportunity offered by East-West Rail interchange at Oxford; Initial indicative evidencing of the case for or against rail connectivity on • Option 3 – Worcester – Birmingham the A46 Corridor – Worcestershire/ Journey Time Reductions Warwickshire/East Midlands axis (i.e. re-opening of the Stratford – Valuing journey time reductions to Honeybourne Line); the County’s biggest neighbouring economy; • Option 9 – , Stoke- On-Trent, Manchester, Cardiff, • Option 4 – Birmingham – Nottingham Kidderminster – Worcester SH – Cheltenham – Gloucester – Bristol Valuing the Bristol-Manchester Cross Country services for Worcestershire • Option 5 – Birmingham – Bromsgrove Parkway – again a set of values exist – Worcestershire Parkway – within in the Parkway project, but Cheltenham – Gloucester – Bristol this provides them within the one consistent County-wide model; Options 4 and 5 examine the value of a stopping service on the Birmingham- • Option 10 – Worcestershire Parkway Bristol corridor, of Cheltenham/ To Plymouth, Birmingham, Sheffeld, Gloucester and Bristol connectivity, York, Newcastle and routing either via Kidderminster or Bromsgrove to provide further Assessing the case for wider UK gradation in respect of the connectivity connectivity for the County. Thus far needs of their economies; the Parkway project has assumed the Plymouth-Newcastle service cannot call. This may no longer be the case after HS2 and electrifcation.

80 Options 1 to 7 are tested with and without 6.3 The Results Worcestershire Parkway to illustrate the Parkway-specifc value of the new station to A summary of the economic benefts – new the County. Option 8, being dependent on a GVA and jobs – derived from each of the wholly new rail route, is assumed only when options tested is shown at Table 6.2: Parkway is delivered. Options 9 and 10 are incremental benefts to the base case service for Parkway when opened in 2019 and which assume 1 tph to London Paddington and 1 tph on the Cardiff-Nottingham service.

Table 6.2 – Summary Of WRIS Conditional Outputs

Without With Worcestershire Worcestershire Option Parkway Parkway GVA pa JOBS GVA JOBS 1 2 tph Worcester – London Paddington via Oxford £12.65m 279 £19.04m 421 1 tph Worcester – Cambridge via interchange at Oxford £1.03m 27 £2.18m 54 2 and East-West Rail Worcester Shrub Hill / Foregate Street – Birmingham £1.1m 31 £0.66m 19 3 Journey Time Reductions 2 tph Birmingham – Kidderminster – Worcester – £7.56m 198 £5.73m 153 4 Cheltenham Spa – Bristol 2 tph Birmingham – Bromsgrove – Worcestershire Parkway £2.1m 54 £5.66m 145 5 – Cheltenham Spa – Bristol 6 1 tph Kidderminster – Birmingham – London Marylebone £11.09m 233 £11.09m 233 1 tph Kidderminster – Worcester – London Paddington £10.5m 221 £10.5m 209 7 Droitwich Spa benefts +£6.9m +130 +£3.3m +64 Total £17.51m 351 £13.8m 273 1 tph Worcester – Evesham – Stratford-upon-Avon – n/a n/a £1.0m 26 8 Solihull – Birmingham 9 1 tph Bristol-Manchester calling at Worcestershire Parkway n/a n/a £4.4m 108 1 tph Plymouth – Newcastle/Edinburgh calling at n/a n/a £9.6m 250 10 Worcestershire Parkway in addition to Bristol-Manchester

These results are illustrated in graphical form at Figures 6.3 and 6.4.

81 Figure 6.3 – Economic Benefts Of WRIS Conditional Outputs (No Worcestershire Parkway) Source SYSTRA

Figure 6.4 – Economic Benefts Of WRIS Conditional Outputs (With Worcestershire Parkway) Source SYSTRA £m GVA pa pa GVA £m

82 6.4 Conclusions From Connectivity Tests

The conclusions from this analysis can be summarised as follows:

• One – A faster, 2 trains per hour service • Six – Connectivity at Oxford to between Worcester and London Milton Keynes and Cambridge via Paddington delivers the greatest has a value in itself and economic benefts to Worcestershire of could support the case for routing enhanced rail connectivity; Kidderminster services to London Paddington rather than London • Two – Direct hourly Wyre Forest to Marylebone; London connectivity follows as the second major beneft, signifcantly • Seven – Faster journey times between strengthened if routed via Droitwich Worcester Shrub Hill / Foregate Street Spa to London Paddington rather than and Birmingham are challenging to via Birmingham to London Marylebone; achieve and the modest improvements assumed in the GVA/jobs model do not • Three – Hourly calls at Worcestershire deliver signifcant value when set against Parkway in both the Plymouth to priorities One to Six; Newcastle/Edinburgh and Bristol to Manchester Cross Country services • Eight – The economic value of offer high value in connecting the reopening the Honeybourne-Stratford County to other major UK economies; upon Avon route is limited for Worcestershire; further work in progress • Four – Direct services from in summer 2017 by WCC suggests the Worcestershire to Cheltenham, principal economic benefts of the Gloucester and Bristol offer high value route would accrue to Warwickshire, whilst requiring choices about routing principally driven by enhanced and frequency via Kidderminster- connectivity between Stratford-upon- Worcester Shrub Hill and/or Avon and London. Re-opening the Bromsgrove-Worcestershire Parkway; route does not form a current priority for Worcestershire, although the • Five – Worcestershire Parkway plays County would work cooperatively with a transformative role in the value any promoter of the scheme, and within of enhanced rail connectivity to the NCLTF which is also considering the Worcestershire, in essence by making long-term value of the route. rail easily accessible to the County’s population; 83 7. Stage 5 – The Prioritised Conditional Outputs 7.1 The frst six positive propositions of However, the economic evidence within this the Connectivity Test Conclusions at Rail Investment Strategy suggests that the Section 6.4 are described and discussed as 2018 service should be seen only as a further Conditional Outputs in more detail below, stage on an incremental development plan and summarised in tabular form at Figure towards a full 2 trains per hour Worcester to 7.7, illustrated in graphic form in relation to London service, with signifcantly reduced connectivity at Figures 7.8 and 7.9 and in journey times. relation to the economic value of other UK economies at 7.10 and 7.11. The service specifcation, similar to that successfully developed on the neighbouring The combined value of the preferred Chiltern Line, assumes 1 limited stop service Conditional Outputs is GVA of £50.42 per hour (between Worcester and London) million per annum and a total 1,151 new jobs with a journey time of 1 hour 50 minutes, and (Figure 7.7). 1 tph calling at all other stations on the North Cotswold Line. This is as illustrated at Figure 7.2 Worcester – London Paddington Via Oxford 7.5 (along with Oxfordshire County Council’s 2TPH: 1 Hour 50 Minute Journey Time desire for 3tph between Hanborough and Oxford), a repeat of Figure 5.7 above. The introduction of the InterCity Express (IEP) hourly service between Worcester and London Paddington in 2018, supported by Worcestershire Parkway, is a major (and welcome) point of change for the North Cotswold Line.

Figure 7.5 – Worcestershire County Council Preferred North Cotswold Line Train Service

Each line represents 1 train per hour

Dashed line indicates fnal destinations beyond Oxford and Hanborough to be determined

84 As discussed at Section 5.5.1, Worcestershire The GVA/jobs model delivers broadly County Council is unlikely to support the similar results for a 1 tph service either to second London service per hour being routed Marylebone or Paddington. Paddington is via Cheltenham given journey time penalties, the recommended Conditional Output for 3 or the second North Cotswold Line service reasons: per hour terminating at Oxford as this would fail to enhance connectivity for the smaller • Kidderminster-Paddington services stations and/or preclude the faster headline would also be able to call at Droitwich Worcester-London journey time. It will be key Spa and thus generate an additional to the County that the smaller stations retain £3.3m – £6.9m GVA (and between 64 an hourly train service to and from London. – 130 jobs) which would otherwise not be realised by services provided on the Achievement of the 2 trains per hour service Chiltern Line; would require: • It would add signifcant value to the • Establishment of and continued hourly IEP London Paddington to stakeholder support through vehicles Worcester service due to commence in such as the North Cotswold Line Task 2018; Force; • An hourly service towards Marylebone • Completion of further doubling of has not proved to be feasible since the the Norton Junction to Evesham and inception of the service in 2002; Chiltern Charlbury to Wolvercote Junction single Railways had sought to deliver such a line sections (and this clarity from DfT service but this has been precluded by and Network Rail in the re-doubling the 6 trains per hour frequency of local options both organisations have been services north of Stourbridge Junction. assessing during 2015/16); Whilst the ‘Rowley Regis’ option for Snow Hill Lines services discussed at • Inclusion within the CP6 HLOS and CP6 Section 5.6 could change the timetable Industry Plan; structure, local service requirements are likely to predominate given the growth • Inclusion within the specifcation for the of commuting into Birmingham. 2019 Great Western franchise. Delivery of this Conditional Output would Conditional Output NCL 1: Provision of 2 require: trains per hour between Worcester and London Paddington, with 1 train per hour • Inclusion within the CP6 HLOS and CP6 having a fast journey time of 1 hour 50 Industry Plan; minutes or less • Inclusion within the specifcation for the 7.3 Kidderminster – Worcester – Droitwich Spa 2019 Great Western franchise; – Oxford – London Paddington • Confrmation that the IEP trains could Kidderminster has the existing limited direct operate between Worcester and London Marylebone service provided Kidderminster; by Chiltern Railways, offering peak only services; connecting services can be used to • Provision of additional car parking Marylebone via Birmingham Snow Hill/Moor capacity at Kidderminster Station and/ Street, to Euston via Birmingham New Street, or development of Hartlebury or or to Paddington via Worcester. Blakedown stations to accommodate demand.

85 Photo courtesy of GWR. Removal of the Kidderminster-Marylebone The 2 options tested – Kidderminster services is not a requirement of this option. and Worcester Shrub Hill to Bristol and However these exist today, to some extent, Bromsgrove and Worcestershire Parkway given Chiltern Railways’ West Midlands to Bristol – both at 2 trains per hour, stabling facilities being located at Stourbridge demonstrate signifcant GVA and jobs Junction, and the capacity they offer to benefts, with the Kidderminster option the support the local Snow Hill train service stronger of the 2. in the peak. Review of the role of the Marylebone services may be indicated in the Clearly providing both services (i.e. 4 trains per context of any progressing of the ‘Rowley hour south of Abbotswood Junction) would Regis’ option and the Chiltern re-franchising not be operationally feasible. There are thus 2 specifcation for 2022 onwards where a focus choices to be assessed further: on maximising Chiltern capacity between • 1 train per hour on each route; Birmingham and London could be a feature. • A 2 trains per hour service on only one A variant option could be extending the of the routes. service to Stourbridge Junction itself, thus offering Stourbridge an hourly London The Kidderminster option would directly service, and developing the more accessible contribute to objectives of the Wyre Blakedown Station (compared to Hartlebury) Forest Transport Strategy (Section. 4.2.6) in as an ‘overspill’ for Kidderminster. supporting regeneration of the economically- challenged District as well as the WLEP’s SEP The concept of an hourly Kidderminster- objective 2.3.2 as noted above. London service does not specifcally feature within any rail industry or local plan, but its Taken together with a potential delivery would be directly consistent with Kidderminster-London Paddington service the WLEP’s objective 2.3.2 on removing these 2 forms of new connectivity could be constraints to economic growth, particularly transformative for Wyre Forest. regarding links to the major tourist attractions of the Severn Valley Railway and West It should also be noted that the benefts Midlands Safari Park, whilst adding value to its projected for the Wyre Forest District are not Short Term Objective 01 on pressing the DfT expected to arise solely from the origin labour for a sub- 2 hour Worcester-London journey market. The increased connectivity realised time (Section 4.2 above). by the new train services would mean that towns, such as Kidderminster, become places Conditional Output NCL 2: Provision of where new businesses want to locate (yielding 1 train per hour between Kidderminster agglomeration benefts). and London Paddington via Droitwich Spa, Worcester and Oxford The Bromsgrove option would support the signifcant committed housing growth in the 7.4 Birmingham – Worcestershire – Cheltenham District and any further required under the – Gloucester – Bristol Greater Birmingham Housing Market Area considerations (Section 4.4.2 above), and The County’s highly limited rail connectivity would utilise the new capacity and focus that southwards towards Gloucestershire and the re-located Bromsgrove Station now offers Bristol, dependent on a 2-hourly frequency, following completion in Summer 2016. slow train service or connections at Birmingham, is a key theme of this Rail Investment Strategy and WCC’s LTP rail priorities.

87 Delivery of one or both of these Conditional Conditional Output WAB 1: Provision Outputs would require: of a new direct train service between Kidderminster, Worcester, Cheltenham • Inclusion within the CP6 HLOS and CP6 Spa, Gloucester, Bristol Parkway and Industry Plan; Bristol Temple Meads • Inclusion within the specifcation for an appropriate rail franchise –Cross Conditional Output WAB 2: Provision Country – or engagement with the of new direct train service between successful WMR franchisee when Bromsgrove and Worcestershire Parkway, appointed; Cheltenham Spa, Gloucester, Bristol Parkway and Bristol Temple Meads • Electrifcation of the Bristol to Birmingham Line to provide the 7.5 Bristol To Manchester And Plymouth To capacity for the service (Bromsgrove) Newcastle/Edinburgh Via Worcestershire as well as the Snow Hill Lines (for the Parkway Kidderminster service) 20; The established Worcestershire Parkway • Provision of additional car parking scheme will use the hourly Cross Country capacity at Kidderminster Station and/ Cardiff to Nottingham services as from 2019. or development of Hartlebury or Blakedown stations to accommodate The additional value of Bristol to Manchester demand. services has been recognised within the Parkway project by Cross Country as well as WCC. Table 7.6 illustrates the additional 230 daily passengers that could be expected at Parkway with the beneft of this service.

Table 7.6 – Worcestershire Parkway – Incremental Demand From Bristol-Manchester Service (2015 Slide)

1 tph WPK- PAD 2031 1 tph BRI -MAN COMBINED 1 tph NOT- CDF DEMAND PA Daily PA Daily PA Daily All 440,000 650 154,000 230 594,000 880 Abstracted 295,000 435 103,000 154 398,000 589 New 145,000 215 51,000 76 196,000 291 Car Park 460 160 620

20 Route electrifcation offers the capacity for additional service by reducing train journey times. This is achieved through faster acceleration rates of electric trains compared to the majority of existing diesel rolling stock. However, it is diffcult to quantify the journey time reductions because of the unique factors that affect each route – number of stations, track gradients, passenger loading etc. 88 Timetable analysis has indicated that The requirement for electrifcation to support calls at Parkway may not be feasible until these 2 services clearly indicates that their electrifcation however, given the uncertainty achievement is not likely to be possible surrounding electrifcation, alternative before CP7 (2024-2029) and the DfT’s July 2017 means of calling these services at the station announcement putting future electrifcation should be considered. Thus, at this stage it on indefnite hold has cast further doubt on remains an aspiration rather than any form of the timescales for future schemes. However commitment for the project. with the likely impact of HS2 Phase 2 on planning of Cross Country services not yet For the Plymouth-Newcastle/Edinburgh understood, beginning engagement now with services, there has thus far been a clear the DfT to further develop the case for those rail industry perspective, particularly from services’ future role for Worcestershire is the DfT, that compromising journey times recommended. on these strategic services would not be acceptable. Delivery of one or both of these Conditional Outputs would require: The GVA and jobs analysis indicates that there would be a signifcant value of up to £10m • Electrifcation of the Bristol to GVA and 250 jobs with either or both services Birmingham Line; calling at Parkway, and given the County’s 566,000 population this is unsurprising. • Development work to be included within the CP6 HLOS and CP6 Industry Both services would support the WLEP’s Plan and the 2019 Cross Country SEP objectives on removing constraints to franchise specifcation; economic growth (Section 4.2 above), the South Worcestershire Transport Strategy’s • Planning for future car park capacity ambition for strategic rail accessibility (Section growth at Worcestershire Parkway. 4.2.3 above) and the South Worcestershire Conditional Output WRP 1: Introduction Development Plan’s similar focus upon of calls at Worcestershire Parkway in rail connectivity’s contribution to the the hourly Cross Country Bristol to competitiveness and attractiveness of the Manchester service area to inward investors (Section 4.3.2 above).

In simple terms both services would connect Conditional Output WRP 2: Introduction Worcestershire directly to the major of calls at Worcestershire Parkway in economies of North West and North East the hourly Cross Country Plymouth to England – a transformative output for the Newcastle service County (as illustrated graphically at Figure 7.11).

89 7.6 Other Conditional Outputs The frst two of these used to lie frmly within the remit of the DfT and Network The context of forecast rail passenger growth, Rail, however, since its creation in November new train services (described in this Rail 2016 they now also fall under the remit of Investment Strategy) and the limited capacity the North Cotswold Line Task Force. It is of Worcestershire stations logically suggests 6 expected that the NCLTF will become the core infrastructure Conditional Outputs that champion for these important Conditional will be essential to the long-term growth of Outputs; creating the desire within the the capability of the rail network to service industry and then managing the enabling Worcestershire’s economic growth, namely: works to turn them from concepts into reality. In addition, this Rail Investment • North Cotswold Line Capacity Strategy provides the frst level of economic Upgrade – Doubling of part or all of evidence required to justify Worcestershire’s the Norton Junction-Evesham and needs within the rail industry, not only into Charlbury-Wolvercote Junction sections; the CP6 (2019-2024) planning process but also • Worcester Area And Droitwich Spa the industry’s Long Term Planning Process to To Stoke Works Capacity Upgrade 2043. – Providing additional capacity for services passing through Shrub Hill The fourth – addressing car park capacity and Foregate Street and doubling of and access to existing or new stations – is the Droitwich-Stoke Works single line within WCC much more direct sphere of (together with re-signalling); infuence, either through the provision of new highway and car parking infrastructure or in • Electrifcation – Of both the Bristol to the development of new 3rd-party-delivered Birmingham and Snow Hill Lines; stations, such as the Worcestershire Parkway station that is being delivered by WCC. This • New Car Park Capacity And/Or New has begun to be addressed within Part 2 of Stations – Addressing the structural this Rail Investment Strategy is currently being shortfall of current car parking capacity developed. and providing capacity for up to 100% passenger growth by 2043, either at The ffth – Worcester Shrub Hill – is being existing or new stations (e.g. a new addressed within WCC’s Masterplan that was station at Rushwick – as detailed in drafted in March 2017, and which includes table 5.16). Initial work on this has begun a Business Case taking account of the through the completion of WCC’s relevant train service Conditional Outputs. draft WRIS2 car parks study which was The Masterplan fndings have shown that completed in March 2017; enhancements at the station could not only transform the rail infrastructure but also act • Worcester Shrub Hill Station as a catalyst for major economic regeneration Regeneration – Transforming passenger in the area. facilities, capacity, access and multi- modal Integration to enable the The sixth – ticketing and fares – is outside of station to support both current train WCC’s direct control, but is an area where, services and those proposed in this Rail perhaps, only WCC’s Worcestershire-focus Investment Strategy (building on the can bring current complexities and anomalies fndings of 2017’s Shrub Hill Masterplan); to the attention of the DfT and the 4 Train Operating Companies who set fares, and seek • Ticketing And Fares – Cross-industry to achieve a more appropriate structure that review of ticketing and fares structures will both attract new passengers in itself and to match new and developing train support the new services proposed in this Rail services. Investment Strategy.

90 Conditional Output ELC 1: Electrifcation of the Bristol to Birmingham Line, Snow Hill Lines and the North Cotswold Lines to support train service growth and development

Conditional Output NCL 3: Provision of additional Infrastructure capacity on the North Cotswold Line to to support a 2 trains per hour Worcester to London Paddington service

Conditional Output WAB 3: Provision of additional infrastructure capacity at Worcester and Droitwich Spa – Bromsgrove to support train service growth and development

Conditional Output ACS 1: Provision of additional car park capacity at existing stations and/or new stations to accommodate forecast passenger growth to 2043

Conditional Output WOS 1: Worcester Shrub Hill Station Regeneration to support current and new train services under Conditional Outputs NCL 1, NCL 2 and WAB 1 and WAB 2

Conditional Output TKT 1: Cross- industry review of ticketing and fares structures to match new and developing train services

91 7.7 Excluded Conditional Outputs benefts of re-opening the route are signifcantly lower than those for faster, 4 items have either been excluded from the more frequent services between the preferred Conditional Outputs given their low County, Oxford and London, calls in GVA/jobs value when set against feasibility or long-distance Cross-Country services likely cost, because they are schemes beyond at Worcestershire Parkway or frequent the existing National Rail Network, or because services between the County and they relate to benefts that will arise without Cheltenham, Gloucester and Bristol. intervention from WCC. These include: WCC is not opposed to the re-opening • Journey Time Enhancement Between of the route, if and when a formal Worcester And Birmingham promoter for the scheme emerges, and recognizes that the aspiration is relevant The economic benefts of a small across a number of local authority reduction on journey time on a areas outside of the County. The North commuting route are inevitably Cotswold Line Task Force (NCLTF) lower than those on longer distance has now been established, bringing strategic routes. In this case the likely together the local authorities and Local infrastructure costs to generate Enterprise Partnerships, including those relatively low GVA beneft perhaps in Worcestershire, along the Oxford- refects the Pareto ’80:20’ principle. It Worcester-Hereford route, to seek to does NOT suggest that faster journey bring forward a major enhancement times to Birmingham would not be of in services more swiftly than current value and electrifcation to Worcester rail-industry investment plans. and re-doubling Droitwich to Stoke Consideration of the potential role of Works may offer greater benefts in the Stratford-Honeybourne route is terms of train service frequency and included within the NCLTF’s objectives. reliability; • Enhanced Direct Rail Connectivity For • Honeybourne To Stratford-Upon- The Redditch Branch Avon Re-Opening There is thought to be no feasible Not considered due to its low GVA scheme to connect Redditch to the and jobs beneft to Worcestershire southbound Bristol-Birmingham Line; and the complexities of delivering the re-opened line (particularly towards the • Worcestershire To Milton Keynes And northern end of the route). Cambridge Connectivity

The location of the Stratford-upon- Whilst this test demonstrates a valuable Avon to Honeybourne rail route GVA and jobs beneft to Worcestershire primarily within Warwickshire limits it will be facilitated by the committed the economic benefts its re-opening East-West scheme and requires no offers directly to Worcestershire direct intervention from WCC. It does, (the benefts instead being accrued however, offer a further incremental within Warwickshire, principally driven beneft to the value of enhanced North by enhanced connectivity between Cotswold Line connectivity, and this Stratford-upon-Avon and London). has been included in the combined Given the WRIS seeks to provide an GVA and jobs value of the Conditional evidenced set of strategic priorities Outputs summarised at Table 7.7. for the County’s rail network as a whole, the Worcestershire-specifc

92 Table 7.7 – Worcestershire Rail Investment Strategy Conditional Outputs

Worcestershire Rail Investment Strategy Ref GVA Jobs When Conditional Output Provision of 2 trains per hour between Worcester and NCL 1 London Paddington, with 1 train per hour having fast journey £19.04m 421 CP6 time of 1 hour 50 minutes or less Provision of 1 train per hour between Kidderminster and NCL 2 London Paddington via Droitwich Spa, Worcester and £13.8m 273 CP6 Oxford Provision of additional infrastructure capacity on the North NCL 3 Cotswold Line to support a 2 trains per hour Worcester to - - CP6 London Paddington service Provision of a new direct train service between WAB 1 Kidderminster, Worcester, Cheltenham Spa, Gloucester, CP6 Bristol Parkway and Bristol Temple Meads £5.73m* 153* Provision of new direct train service between Bromsgrove WAB 2 and Worcestershire Parkway, Cheltenham Spa, Gloucester, CP6 Bristol Parkway and Bristol Temple Meads Provision of additional infrastructure capacity at Worcester WAB 3 and Droitwich Spa – Bromsgrove to support train service - - CP6 growth and development Introduction of calls at Worcestershire Parkway in the WPK 1 CP6 hourly Cross Country Bristol to Manchester service £9.6m** 250** Introduction of calls at Worcestershire Parkway in the WPK 2 CP6 hourly Cross Country Plymouth to Newcastle service Electrifcation of the Bristol to Birmingham Line, Snow Hill ELC 1 Lines and the North Cotswold Line to support train service - - CP6/7 growth and development Provision of additional car park capacity at existing stations ACS 1 and/or new stations to accommodate forecast passenger - - CP5/6 growth to 2043 Worcester Shrub Hill Station Regeneration to support WOS 1 current and proposed new train services and frequencies to - - CP5/6 London and Cross-industry review of ticketing and fares structures to TKT 1 - - CP5/6 match new and developing train services – GVA/jobs value of East-West connectivity at Oxford £2.18m 54 CP6 TOTAL GVA AND JOBS £50.42m 1151 * Higher of the 2 potential services ** Combined value CP5 2014-2019 • CP6 2019-2024 • CP7 2024-2029

93 Figure 7.8 – Worcestershire Rail Connectivity 2016

Figure 7.9 – Worcestershire Rail Connectivity With Combined Conditional Outputs

94 Figure 7.10 – Direct Rail Connectivity: Worcestershire To Other UK LEP Economies – 2016

WORCESTERSHIRE GVA £11.9bn

Figure 7.11 – Direct Rail Connectivity: Worcestershire To Other UK LEP Economies With Combined Rail Investment Strategy Conditional Outputs

WORCESTERSHIRE GVA £11.9bn

95 8. Stage 6 – Making It Happen 8.1 The rail industry’s specifc commitment to • Worcestershire Rail Investment major structural change in Worcestershire’s Strategy’s Conditional Outputs – rail network is limited to the three key Placing WCC’s aspirations frmly on CP5 (2014-2019) committed schemes – the the rail industry’s agenda for CP6 and InterCity Express London to Worcester hourly onwards, informing and explaining their train service, facilitating WCC’s Worcestershire vital economic purpose, and gaining Parkway scheme and delivering Bromsgrove industry support and enthusiasm for electrifcation and relocated station. their development and delivery.

Whilst the industry’s Long-Term Planning This will require WCC and the WLEP to make Process references potential investment in joint commitment to contribute to funding electrifcation, North Cotswold Line capacity, the development and delivery of some of the and re-signalling and re-modelling projects in required schemes in the way both have done Worcester, there is no specifc commitment in respect of Worcestershire Parkway and or programme for these schemes. Bromsgrove Station.

Key to the development of a rail network It is clear from current rail industry conditions capable of supporting Worcestershire’s that the delivery of major infrastructure ambitions for economic growth is active projects such as electrifcation or the North engagement by WCC and the WLEP with Cotswold Line Capacity upgrade will not be Government, the rail industry, politicians and led locally. The key for WCC, the WLEP and other stakeholders in 3 areas: their partners will therefore be to lobby for and help facilitate their delivery by the rail • Committed Industry Schemes – industry and central Government. Supporting delivery of existing industry commitments and their programmes 8.2 The particular and specifc ‘Next Steps’ thus including Great Western Electrifcation include: and IEP, East-West Rail, and the capacity schemes noted in the Hendy Review; • One – North Cotswold Line Task Force (NCLTF) – engagement with the • Prospective Industry Schemes – key stakeholders forming the NCLTF in Robustly lobbying for commitment in order to progress, and achieve delivery the DfT’s CP6 (2019-2024) HLOS and of, the shared Joint Vision for the North Network Rail’s CP6 Business Plan to Cotswold Line; development and delivery programmes for schemes of high importance • Two – CP6 HLOS And Re-Franchising – to Worcestershire, such as Bristol Lobbying DfT to include development to Birmingham and Snow Hill Lines and, where feasible, delivery of the electrifcation, North Cotswold Line Rail Investment Strategy’s Conditional Capacity upgrade and Worcester re- Outputs within industry Control Period modelling and re-signalling; 6 (2019-2024) and the re-franchising specifcations for Great Western Railways, Cross Country and Chiltern Railways and active engagement with the new WMR franchisee;

96 • Three – Long Term Planning Process It should be noted that some of the above – Engaging DfT and Network Rail to ‘next steps’ are already underway (such as include the Rail Investment Strategy the creation of the North Cotswold Line Conditional Outputs in the Long Term Task Force). However, other activities (such Planning Process to 2023 and 2043 as steps Two and Three) will be programmed where these cannot be delivered in CP6; into relevant work streams over the life of the LTP4. • Four – West Midlands Rail And Midlands Connect – Maximising With the completion of the Bromsgrove Worcestershire’s input into and Station relocation project, Worcester Foregate infuence upon the local partnerships of Street and Malvern Link schemes and the which it is a member, specifcally West current delivery of Worcestershire Parkway, Midlands Rail and franchise devolution Worcestershire is developing a strong track and Midlands Connect and its Powering record of successful investment in its rail the Midlands Engine Strategy (which network. currently does not include the NCLTF within its thinking); Taken together with its commitment to evidencing the case for further development, • Five – Other Stakeholders – Engaging the County is in a strong position to persuade with neighbouring Local Enterprise Government and the rail industry to support Partnerships and local authorities with its locally driven economic objectives. common interests e.g. Warwickshire, Oxfordshire and Gloucestershire, (not only through the North Cotswold Line Task Force), and the full range of authorities and LEPs with an interest in bringing forward Bristol to Birmingham and Snow Hill Lines electrifcation;

• Six – Developing Projects Within The County’s Control – Continuing to develop and deliver schemes such as Kidderminster Station regeneration, Worcester Shrub Hill Masterplan and station car park capacity upgrades (the fndings of these latter studies have been extremely positive, with deliverable schemes recommended which are now under consideration regarding ‘next steps’ development).

97 Worcestershire County Council You can contact us in the following ways:

By telephone: 01905 844887

By post: Economy and Infrastructure Directorate Worcestershire County Council, , Spetchley Road, Worcester WR5 2NP

By email: [email protected]

Online: www.worcestershire.gov.uk