Worcestershire County Council Worcestershire Rail Investment Strategy Supporting Development of Worcestershire’s Local Transport Plan 4 Autumn 2017 Contents An Evidenced Rail Vision For Worcestershire 4 1. Executive Summary 7 2. Introduction 12 3. Stage 1 – Current Travel Markets, Train Services & Accessibility 15 4. Stage 2 – Review of Worcestershire’s Development Proposals 39 5. Stage 3 – Rail Industry Plans & Gap Analysis 52 6. Stage 4 – Economic Testing Of Connectivity Options 78 7. Stage 5 – The Prioritised Conditional Outputs 84 8. Stage 6 – Making It Happen 96 An Evidenced Rail Vision For Worcestershire Worcestershire is an attractive, thriving County of The Rail Industry’s Plans 566,000 people, set to grow by 47,200 new homes 2030 and 25,000 new jobs by 2025 which will result The industry forecasts up to 97% growth in in a £2.9bn growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) passenger volumes on Worcestershire routes by from £9bn to £11.9bn per annum 1. The County’s rail 2043 2 . services will not match these ambitions without signifcant earlier development and investment The industry has an emerging vision, shared in beyond that committed by the rail industry. Worcestershire, for a faster 2 trains per hour (tph) Worcestershire to London service, supported by The Challenge enhancements to the North Cotswold Line, the Great Western electrifcation scheme and new Connectivity to London is slow and of limited Intercity Express Programme (IEP) trains. frequency, with many Worcestershire passengers using the M5-M42-M40 to access better Birmingham However its planning processes do not include International and Warwick Parkway services. The additional Cross Country or southbound opening of Worcestershire Parkway in early 2019 will, connectivity beyond current commitments to however, begin to address this issue by providing serve the new Worcestershire Parkway in 2019, and enhanced accessibility to the North Cotswold Line its long-distance and local services are planned and Cardiff – Nottingham Cross Country services. by different Network Rail routes and multiple However, other strategic UK-wide Cross Country operators. Worcestershire County Council seeks the services will continue to pass through but not call support of the industry in planning Worcestershire’s in Worcestershire, limiting connectivity to the rail services in a fully integrated manner, refecting economies of South-West, North-West and North- our vision of “One-Economy-One Railway” for East England. Worcestershire. The growing University City of Worcester suffers Addressing capacity restrictions caused by the poor connectivity due to restricted rail County’s several single line sections and outdated infrastructure, outdated signalling and limited signalling systems is being considered by Network historic investment in its 2 stations. Rail but with no committed timescales. The County is a key partner in the newly-established North Kidderminster and Redditch (and Bromsgrove after Cotswold Line Task Force which seeks to bring introduction of the new electrifcation timetable forward capacity upgrades on this route and in the in May 2018) are well served by local services into Worcester area; the evidence underpinning our Birmingham, but have limited connectivity to Vision set out in this Strategy strongly supports the London or southwards. These services also face work of the Task Force. challenges of overcrowding, particularly during peak periods - both issues can have a profound effect in Electrifcation of the Bristol-Birmingham and suppressing demand. Snow Hill Lines, capable of increasing capacity for new services for Worcestershire under previous Department for Transport (DfT) consideration, is not now included in active industry plans following 1 Worcestershire Local Enterprise Partnership, Strategic Economic Plan; March 2014 2 Network Rail Long Term Planning Process, Long Distance Market Study; October 2013 4 the Government’s July 2017 announcement of the Worcestershire is keen to gain from new UK-wide cancellation of major UK rail electrifcation schemes, journeys offered by HS2 from 2026 and 2033, and proposing future reliance on ‘bi-mode’ electric/ all of which will, however, be by connection at diesel powered trains. Alternative ways of increasing Birmingham Curzon St. or interchange (See section connectivity and capacity will therefore need to be 5.9.2 for further information regarding HS2). found on this corridor. This Strategy thus focuses on new, direct Worcestershire’s Evidenced Proposals connectivity on the ‘Classic Network’, connectivity being achieved via local and long-distance rail Worcestershire County Council (WCC) has prepared services, to both regional and UK-wide economies this Rail Investment Strategy to evidence its in order to promote the County’s sustainable economic case – in terms of GVA and jobs – for economic growth and success (the concept of “One enhanced County rail connectivity. Economy / One Railway”). The Strategy proposes 4 overarching Conditional Infrastructure To Support Outputs for rail service development which would Worcestershire’s Vision deliver £50.42m GVA per annum, and 1,151 new jobs in the County 3: The Conditional Outputs also cover key aspirational infrastructure schemes essential to facilitate this • 2 Trains Per Hour Worcester-Oxford- new connectivity, including: Paddington – £21.22m GVA p.a. and 475 new jobs; • North Cotswold Line Capacity Upgrade; • 1 Train Per Hour Kidderminster-Droitwich • Worcester Area And Droitwich Spa To Stoke Spa-Worcester-Paddington – £13.8m GVA p.a. Works Capacity Upgrade; and 273 new jobs; • New Car Park Capacity And/Or New • Calls At Worcestershire Parkway In Bristol- Stations; Manchester And Plymouth-Newcastle Services – £9.6m GVA p.a. and 250 new jobs; • Worcester Shrub Hill Station Regeneration; • Regional Service Between Kidderminster/ • Electrifcation Of Both The Bristol To Bromsgrove, Worcester And Cheltenham Birmingham And Snow Hill Lines. 4 Spa, Gloucester And Bristol – £5.73m GVA p.a. and 153 new jobs. 3 JMP, Worcestershire RIS GVA Analysis: Wider Impacts Note; June 2016 4 Although in light of the recent Secretary of State for Transport’s announcement putting on hold all future electrifcation schemes, these Conditional Outputs will need to be carefully considered with regards to delivery. 5 Taking The Vision Forward • DfT and Network Rail on the Long Term Planning Process to 2023 and 2043; Worcestershire recognises that its aspirations require planning within the medium and long-term • Midlands Connect on its ‘Powering the rail industry investment framework to 2023 and Midlands Engine’ Transport Strategy (ensuring 2043. Worcestershire’s Rail Vision is fully integrated with the Midlands Connect proposals); and This Vision will thus form the basis for the County’s active and ambitious engagement with stakeholders • Neighbouring Local Enterprise Partnerships and partners including: and local authorities with common interests. • The North Cotswold Line Task Force on ways to quickly develop and deliver the shared Joint Vision for the North Cotswold Line; • DfT on investment within industry Control Period 6 (2019-2024) and upon re-franchising specifcations; 6 1. Executive Summary 1.1 In 2016 Worcestershire County Council between Redditch and Birmingham (during commissioned SLC Rail to develop a peak periods) and between Worcester – Worcestershire Rail Investment Strategy Bromsgrove – Birmingham (all day). (WRIS), to form part of the County’s fourth Local Transport Plan (2017 – 2030). The WRIS 1.4 Stage 2: Change In Worcestershire is split into 5 key stages, designed to; baseline The Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) produced the current rail situation in the County; by the Worcestershire Local Enterprise assess the scale of growth expected; identify Partnership (WLEP) sets out ambitious growth gaps and solutions; model the economic targets for the County. By 2025 the SEP benefts of these solutions, and; prioritise the proposes the creation of 25,000 new jobs, investment to achieve maximum value for construction of 47,200 new dwellings by 2030 money. and an increase in GVA from £9bn to £11.8bn 1.2 Investing in the rail network of the County per annum. This growth is focused around is important in order to achieve sustained the rail corridors in the three areas of Wyre economic growth, increased connectivity Forest, Bromsgrove & Redditch and South and reduced reliance on motor vehicles. The Worcestershire. Further housing development outputs of this WRIS can be used to lobby is expected to ‘overspill’ from the Greater the rail industry for prioritised improvements Birmingham housing allocations and, although up to 2043. A summary of the Strategy’s numbers are still to be quantifed, it is thought fndings is found below. around 37,900 new houses will need to be shared between the nine adjacent local 1.3 Stage 1: Baseline authorities (including Worcestershire) by 2031. Key policy documents for the region (e.g. the Worcestershire is crossed by two nationally SEP, WCC’s LTP3 and the West Midlands LTP) important rail lines – the North Cotswold all cite the benefts of prioritising rail travel as line from London Paddington to Worcester, a means to achieve sustainable growth. Great Malvern and Hereford and the Bristol to Birmingham Line. Local services operate 1.5 Stage 3: Rail Industry Planning to Birmingham along the Kidderminster, Bromsgrove and Redditch routes. Passengers The rail industry is currently engaged in its make 9.2 million trips to and from the ‘Long Term Planning Process’ which looks