Manukau City T2060 Concept Business & Industrial Land Demand Assessment
Manukau City Council
April 2009
SCHEDULE
Code Date Information / Comments Project Leader 005 April 2009 Report Phil Osborne Tim Heath
DISCLAIMER
Property Economics has taken every care to ensure the correctness of all the information contained in this report. All information has been obtained by what are considered to be reliable sources, and Property Economics has no reason to doubt its accuracy. It is however the responsibility of all parties acting on information contained in this report to make their own enquiries to verify correctness.
This document has been prepared for the use of Manukau City Council only. Copyright © 2009 by Property Economics Ltd.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION 4 1.1 INFORMATION SOURCES 4
2. MANUKAU BUSINESS LOCATIONAL ASSESSMENT 5 2.1 THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 6
3. INTERNATIONAL & NATIONAL TRENDS 6 3.1 MANUFACTURING TRENDS 6 3.2 EMERGENCE OF LOGISTICS 7 3.3 CHANGING ORGANISATION & TECHNOLOGY 7 3.4 INTERNATIONAL OFFICE TRENDS 9
4. MANUKAU BUSINESS MARKETS 12
5. INDUSTRIAL TRENDS BY MARKET 15 5.1 INDUSTRIAL LAND VALUES 15 5.2 EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION 17 5.3 FUTURE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR 20
6. FUTURE COMMERCIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR 21
7. FUTURE INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR 22
8. BUSINESS LOCATION CRITERIA 23 8.1 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 23 8.2 COMMERCIAL OFFICE SECTOR 24
9. RETAIL DEMAND 26
10. BUSINESS INTENSIFICATION SCENARIOS 27 10.1 FUTURE BUSINESS LOCATIONS 28
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LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 1: FLAT BUSH EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 17 TABLE 2: AIRPORT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 17 TABLE 3: MANUREWA EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 18 TABLE 4: HOWICK EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 18 TABLE 5: EAST TAMAKI EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 19 TABLE 6: RURAL MANUKAU EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 19 TABLE 7: ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR FOR MANUKAU CITY (TO 2060) 20 TABLE 8: PROJECTED COMMERCIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR FOR MANUKAU CITY (TO 2060 (NET)) 22 TABLE 9: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR FOR MANUKAU CITY (TO 2060 (NET)) 22 TABLE 10: TOTAL ESTIMATED RETAIL FLOORSPACE DEMAND (TO 2060) 26 TABLE 11: COMMERCIAL LAND REQUIREMENT WITH INTENSIFICATION 27 TABLE 12: INDUSTRIAL LAND REQUIREMENT WITH INTENSIFICATION 27 TABLE 13: TOTAL INDUSTRIAL LOCATIONAL DEMANDS (2060) 28 TABLE 14: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL AIRPORT DEMAND (2060) 28 TABLE 15: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL WIRI DEMAND (2060) 28 TABLE 16: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL MANGERE DEMAND (2060) 28 TABLE 17: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL EAST TAMAKI / HIGHBROOK DEMAND (2060) 29 TABLE 18: TOTAL COMMERCIAL LOCATIONAL DEMANDS (2060) 29 TABLE 19: PROJECTED COMMERCIAL AIRPORT DEMAND (2060) 29 TABLE 20: PROJECTED WIRI DEMAND (2060) 30 TABLE 21: PROJECTED COMMERCIAL MANGERE DEMAND (2060) 30 TABLE 22: PROJECTED COMMERCIAL EAST TAMAKI / HIGHBROOK DEMAND (2060) 30
LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY LOCATION (2000 – 2007) 12 FIGURE 2: INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY LOCATION (2000 – 2007) 13 FIGURE 3: RETAIL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY LOCATION (2000 – 2007) 14 FIGURE 4: MANUKAU INDUTSRIAL LAND UPTAKE AND LAND VALUE 15 FIGURE 5: MANUKAU INDUSTRAIL LAND VALUES BY AREA 16
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Manukau City T2060 Concept Business & Industrial Land Demand Assessment
1. INTRODUCTION
This report reviews the MCC T2060 Concept Plan in terms of quantum, and shifts in demand for commercial and industrial property over the next 50 years. Specific objectives of the report are to: • review the assessments of growth capacity for Manukau • evaluate the rate of ‘take-up’ of commercial and industrial land, as proposed by the T2060 Concept Plan, • evaluate any environmental social benefits and costs resulting from the T2060 Concept Plan • evaluate the long term role and function of the major centres and corridors • evaluate the staging requirements to achieve the T2060 Concept Plan • identify any impediments to achieving the outcomes sought by the T2060 Concept Plan
1.1 Information Sources Information has been obtained from a variety of sources and publications available to Property Economics, including: • Census of Population and Dwellings 2001 - Statistics NZ • Household Economic Survey - Statistics NZ • Retail Trade Survey - Statistics NZ • Background Information – Manukau City Council
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2. MANUKAU BUSINESS LOCATIONAL ASSESSMENT This section assesses the business land market in Manukau considering: 1. The current business market 2. The expected future market 3. Manukau business market trends 4. Projected Manukau business activity by sector: Industrial, Commercial and Retail 5. Changes in business land intensity 6. Location of Manukau business a. The need to supply appropriate land to remain competitive b. Location criteria by activity c. Manukau’s competitive advantages d. Sector requirements e. Specific locations and their advantages: where businesses will go f. Business requirements: infrastructure etc. The Manukau business market has historically been driven by industrial activity and specially manufacturing. These businesses typically located in the city due to Manukau’s competitive land prices and accessibility south of Auckland. Within Manukau itself businesses have located for a variety of reasons, being historical location to access to their market. The main driving force behind locations in Manukau, for larger businesses, are focused on their accessibility both to Auckland and the southern half of the North Island, access to an appropriate labour force and relative competitively priced land. These competitive factors have led, in more recent times, to the emergence of Hamilton and Tauranga as locational competitors. As the business environment has changed so to has Manukau City’s economic composition. The emergence of logistics has seen considerable growth in and around the airport. Also as the Eastern Suburbs continue to attract a different category of labour, so the growth of commercial activity is drawn to these areas of Manukau with increasing amenity and growing positive agglomeration impacts on businesses located here.
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2.1 The Business Environment The international business environment has continued to experience significant shifts over the past 15 years. These changes are the result of globalisation, that has lead to increased national and regional specialisation, and an increasing proportion of activity in the commercial / service markets, with an emphasis on high ‘value added’ sectors. Many regional and local economies have focused on growth in these dynamic industries such as biotechnology, film, marine, and information technology. Many of these competing locations have failed to nurture growth in these areas, due to a lack of competitive locational advantage, and have pursued these sectors at the expense of fostering existing strengths.
3. INTERNATIONAL & NATIONAL TRENDS This section identifies some of the major impacts on Manukau of evolving global and, more importantly, national trading patterns. It focuses on long-term shifts in the composition of trade, changing global demand, new and evolving structures of production, and the structural suitability of the study area’s economy for sustained prosperity and growth. It also discusses operational and technological advances, and the impact this will have on the business markets. Due to New Zealand’s position in the global market it is susceptible to changes in the international arena. This ultimately influences the competitive nature of the Manukau markets, markets that they currently or potentially exhibit a comparative advantage in.
3.1 Manufacturing Trends Trends in the international industrial market can be broken down into two categories, export industries and those demanded for national supply. The trends in world demand for production are important in determining the direction of Manukau’s industrial future. Suppliers to the international market are looking for areas that are compatible with their industry in terms of access to skilled workers, and other factors of production. The current international trends show a continued growth in manufacturing for export, not only in developing countries but also some of the wealthiest OECD countries. In 1997 manufactured products accounted for 61% of world trade by value, while in 2002 that figure reached over 68%. Of this the valued added by ‘niche’ or specialised manufacturers is estimated to be over 10% and climbing. These are key areas of growth and retention for Manukau City. Reasons for this recent decline in this sector may be explained by the departure of several large firms due to more competitive Asian and Australian markets.
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Continually improving international communications and logistics mean that businesses supplying any markets can be operated from geographically distant locations. The size of the Manukau local market means that traditional types of manufacturing are decreasing as cheaper international labour acquires international contracts.
3.2 Emergence of Logistics The NZIER employment projections forecast more warehousing and logistic based industry, which will redistribute employment proportions more evenly across the industrial sectors. Manufacturing employment, as a percentage of total industrial employment, is projected to drop from 45% to 42%, while Wholesale Trade is projected to increase. Whether it is measured by the value it will add to the local economy or the employment it generates, logistic businesses likely to be an important component of Manukau’s industrial economy in the future. This trend is not unique to Manukau, with many economies around the world undergoing the same transition at present, especially in larger cities where it is becoming increasingly difficult for large manufacturers to find large sites at economic prices, and hence are getting pushed further out of the city or to neighbouring towns, in Manukau’s case to Hamilton and Tauranga. Just about everything that happens in a major centre is dependent on the movement of materials. Industries such as manufacturing, construction and retail are particularly dependent on efficient logistics, as are many of the professional service businesses in the heart of financial districts. Also, an efficient logistics sector provides the foundation for achieving wider spatial, economic development and transport objectives for Manukau. Logistic businesses provide a range of employment opportunities for a wide variety of skill bases, but generally the warehousing associated with many logistical operations rely on areas of lower socio-economic status, creating employment opportunities in areas of economic need. Logistics also has the potential to contribute to the sustainable development of Manukau, through the recycling of ‘brownfield’ sites for warehousing, and the wider use of ‘sustainable distribution’, e.g. use of cleaner vehicles.
3.3 Changing Organisation & Technology Over the past two decades, the way in which industrial companies have operated has changed. This is primarily due to technological developments and the emergence of logistics businesses, and is a result of industrial activities coming under increasing pressure to reduce costs and improve service.
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From an organisation’s perspective, some of the key changes have included: • The consolidation of inventory • Greater ‘just in time’ logistics • Increasing use of cross-docking • The outsourcing of warehousing and transport services • The growth of home deliveries in certain markets Consolidation of inventory refers to the way in which many operators are now consolidating their inventory into a smaller number of larger warehouses. One of the main benefits associated with consolidation is the reduction in the total amount of stock businesses hold, thereby reduce holding costs. A flow-on benefit of this is that total property and employee costs are often reduced. These cost savings and increases in efficiency generally outweigh any increase in transport costs that may occur by having fewer distribution points. This trend has been one of the key drivers behind the demand for larger warehouses, and this looks set to continue well into the future. Just-in-time logistics is where the flow of goods is ‘pulled’ by customer demand rather than being ‘pushed’ out by producers or suppliers. For warehousing, this has been a key factor in transforming the roles of warehouses from storage, to movement and information. This can generate increased transport with more frequent deliveries of smaller consignments. This trend is likely to continue to be refined as companies seek to eliminate ‘waste’ from the movement of their goods. Cross-docking often works in conjunction with just-in-time logistics and is a way of managing the flow of goods without putting them into storage. This is usually done in a dedicated facility where the warehouse still exists, but its ‘stockless’, as the goods go straight through rapid unloading, get re-consigned and reloaded again before onward dispatch. This trend has seen significant growth overseas, and generated increased demand for large land intensive warehouses with loading docks on both sides. This is likely to remain a growing trend as industrial businesses become increasingly focused on the speed of flow through the supply chain. Outsourcing refers to the way industrial activity contract out their logistic operations, typically their transport operations and/or warehousing generally to specialist logistic businesses. This keeps industrial businesses focused on their core competencies and out sources non-core requirements. This has fuelled growth in the logistics market and has been an important driver in demand for large warehousing and distribution facilities. As the logistic market grows and the large players get bigger, they will become more competitive which may further drive growth in this market. In this regard, this organisational shift looks set to continue. The home delivery market received significant impetus with the development of on-line and catalogue retailing. This sector involves the delivery of goods supplied by direct selling manufacturers and non-store retailers (such as Amazon).
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This sector also includes delivery of goods which are purchased in person at retail stores. The home delivery market also generates demand for large warehouses and growth in this market is likely to lead to an increase in demand for warehouse/distribution facilities. The impact of this on Manukau may be small for non-perishable goods, but with supermarkets now offering on-line shopping, this sector will require more local warehousing. Despite all the advances in technology and trends this is bringing to the industrial market, ultimately demand for industrial building space and land will be driven by local economic growth. This creates demand for more inventory, which requires more manufacturing, more distribution, more jobs, more warehousing, etc. In this regard, economic growth will be a good benchmark for future increases in industrial land and buildings.
3.4 International Office Trends
Office trends are less pronounced compared with retail trends internationally, however is nevertheless having an impact on the form of cities. The following are some of the recent office trends seen across the U.S. and Europe.
Science & Technology Parks With many countries around the world stressing the importance of technological development for economic growth, Science and Technology Parks have become an important component of the commercial real estate landscape. These Science and Technology Parks are developed to link the ideas and intelligence of universities and other such learning institutes and link them with businesses to create high value, high technology products for the marketplace. As such these parks are typically located close to or within learning institutes. These office developments require excellent IT infrastructure and high amenity environments capable of attracting highly skilled companies and employees. Examples of successful Science and Technology Parks include Silicon Valley, Triangle Park in North Carolina and the Cambridge Science Park.
Office Parks Office parks are master-planned clusters of low-medium rise office buildings. Most new office parks are highly landscaped, offering white collar workers an enjoyable working environment outside the CBD. Underlying the success of office parks is their ability to concentrate similar uses in one place, which gives it a creative, competitive, pro-business reputation. In New Zealand Office parks have become a feature with developments such as Smales Farm and Highbrook in Auckland.
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Office Parks are often associated with large cities however, and it is unlikely that New Zealand has large enough industries to create a critical mass of activity. The slow uptake of space at Smales Farm, which is arguably one of New Zealand’s best potential locations for an Office Park, reinforces this. They also are poorly integrated with the urban environment and impose a range of costs on the community (e.g. often create traffic externalities, reduced productivity levels in CBDs, reduced social and community values of CBDs, etc).
Technological Improvements Constantly improving technologies have changed the way the office sector works. Developments such as the laptop computers, mobile phones and the internet have enabled significant change. The flexibility that new technologies offer office workers allows for more work to be done away from the office, and outside office hours. As such many more people can now choose to work from home, or take mid week holidays when golf courses and shopping centres are less busy.
Outsourcing One key development that has arisen, largely due to improvements in technology, is the outsourcing of white collar work. In the UK and America the outsourcing of back office processes and call centres to countries with lower labour costs and relatively high levels of education such as India and China has become a mainstream way of doing business for the larger companies. More recently higher value office sector work is being outsourced in fields such as financial analysis and legal researching. This trend is anticipated to continue with the cost savings driving outsourcing into the future.
Office Building Design The modern office building is vastly different to previous designs. One difference is the acknowledgement of staff wellbeing and the link to improved retention and productivity. As such energy efficient and healthy buildings are becoming the new offices. Healthy buildings include features such as systems to clean the air, hush glass and reduced glass to core depths. Floor plans are also changing with fewer columns and more egalitarian designs (high quality environments for staff) becoming commonplace requiring larger floor plates, again this is with increased productivity in mind. There is also a recent trend of inviting community spaces within an office environment has led to the creation of more communal spaces such as coffee bars, informal meeting spaces with lounge furniture, Internet spaces in break rooms, and other areas. Other community features such as sports bars, and gyms are also showing up in new office projects. Again these trends are believed to translate into increased productivity, less employee turnover and strong team building.
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Another trend is office ‘hoteling’ facilities which accommodates for employees that work frequently outside of the office but need a workplace when in-house. A certain number of workspaces are supplied where employees can book a space for when they are on site, without tying up valuable floorspace when they are out of the office. The recently opened Vodafone office in Auckland has a similar design. Increasing technological developments are changing workplaces much like they are changing work habits. Increasing technological requirements are making new developments and older building stock carry more ducting for cables such as fiber optics and other space for hardware. This trend also makes those areas well situated for Internet access with high bandwidths more desirable. Recycling underutilised buildings through conversion of abandoned spaces like theatres to educational facilities, and shopping malls to corporate centers has emerged as another recent international trend. Acquisition costs for distressed malls are low, and the existing shell can be quickly retrofitted for other uses in less time than new construction. Shopping malls are attractive options for office data and call center facilities. Shopping malls also offer large floor plates for flexible planning arrangements for larger tenants. Parking provision in shopping malls make them for people-intensive call centers and back office operations with high density employee populations and overlapping shifts. The enclosed design provides a secure environment, and tenants can share amenities such as food courts, fitness facilities, conference training facilities and day care centers. Having these common facilities allows the tenants to forgo leasing additional space to accommodate these amenities within their own premises, and increase both the quality and number of options available to staff.
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4. MANUKAU BUSINESS MARKETS It is important to assess past business location trends within Manukau in order to ascertain where specific business sectors are choosing to locate under current conditions. Figures 1-3 show the three different markets in terms of employment growth in Manukau City over the past 7 years.
FIGURE 1: COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY LOCATION (2000 – 2007)
Commercial EC Growth 200 to 1,800 50 to 200 10 to 50 0 to 10 -50 to 0 -360 to -50
Source: Property Economics. Statistics NZ
Figure 1 above demonstrates the distribution of commercial employment growth in Manukau City over the past 7 years. Key points to note include the consolidation of activity from outlying areas (especially rural) to three main ‘hubs’, Manukau Central/Wiri, East Tamaki and the Airport. Interestingly the Airport and its surroundings have seen a substantial level of growth in commercial activity due in part to the level of ‘support services’ that have located here and partly due to the level of communication services.
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FIGURE 2: INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY LOCATION (2000 – 2007)
Industrial EC Growth 200 to 1,300 50 to 200 5 to 50 0 to 5 -50 to 0 -430 to -50
Figure 2 demonstrates the distribution of industrial employment growth in Manukau City over the past 7 years. This map once again shows the consolidation of activity around three main areas, the Airport (including Airport Oaks), East Tamaki / Highbrook and Wiri. There has also been a movement away from the higher density locations around Manukau with a greater focus on accessibility.
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FIGURE 3: RETAIL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY LOCATION (2000 – 2007)
Retail EC Growth 200 to 1,180 50 to 200 10 to 50 0 to 10 -50 to 0 -270 to -50
Figure 3 above demonstrates the distribution of retail employment growth in Manukau City over the past 7 years. Botany and the Airport have experienced the highest levels of growth, with the market also showing the emergence of retail activity in the more traditional industrial areas with many factories now selling ‘seconds’ and ‘end of line’ stock direct to the market.
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5. INDUSTRIAL TRENDS BY MARKET Six catchments within the Manukau City limits have been identified within the associated residential study. It is considered appropriate for the purposes of this report to continue to utilise these. This section illustrates industrial land values and identifies employment based changes for each area from 2000 to 2007.
5.1 Industrial Land Values The growth experienced by Manukau City over the past 8 years has had a considerable impact on the price of land in the area. Industrial land especially has seen significant increases over this time period which has lead to several spatial outcomes. Firstly industrial business has consolidated, with higher value industry entering the market firms seeking cheaper land have vacated locations further out in favour of moving to Hamilton and to a lesser degree Franklin. Also with the rise in land values and the increasing amenity afforded by rising populations (and house prices) other uses are competing for this land. This latter impact illustrates the importance of supplying appropriately zoned land for these higher uses so as to secure land of important industrial growth. Figures 4 and 5 show the increase in industrial land values to 2006. These values have climbed steadily as demand pressure from central Auckland continues to take up supply in Manukau. It is important to note here that some of this uptake has been based on business preparation for future growth, growth that may not be seen now for an extended timeframe.
FIGURE 4: MANUKAU INDUTSRIAL LAND UPTAKE AND LAND VALUE
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Figure 5 shows the considerable difference experienced by the Wiri / Manukau area and that of East Tamaki and Highbrook. These differences are not necessary reflective of the overall demand for these location but the types of demand locating in these areas. Due to East Tamaki’s proximity to Auckland CBD, greater amenity and access to a higher skilled workforce, demand has been generated by non- industrial activity as well as higher value industrial activity locating here.
FIGURE 5: MANUKAU INDUSTRAIL LAND VALUES BY AREA
It is important to note the impact that these price changes have on the market. Simple economics would suggest that as price increases not only does the quantity of business land supplied to the market increase but also the ‘value’ of the businesses located on them. This theory does not hold out in every case and especially over a short or medium term. Land banking continues to operate resulting in businesses being forced to locate in suboptimal locations and low ‘value’ businesses can persist for decades in locations where the land value outstrips their production value. The likelihood of these anomalies must be considered with regards to the wider areas identified.
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5.2 Employment Composition Changes in employment composition and growth trends for each of the six identified catchments are outlined in Tables 1 to 6, these are broken down by sector.
TABLE 1: FLAT BUSH EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 4242423339272749 B Mining 00000000 C Manufacturing 39 60 67 89 266 93 69 66 D Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 E Construction 228 219 215 237 240 334 366 321 F Wholesale Trade 200 15 24 24 51 78 84 81 G Retail Trade 83 24 633 680 846 930 1,029 1,324 H Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 58 81 109 173 211 239 353 429 I Transport and Storage 146 103 112 120 146 168 206 160 J Communication Services 27 0 6 9 9 3 12 15 K Finance and Insurance 0 3 27 44 43 59 87 109 L Property and Business Services 638 129 135 125 206 236 320 373 M Government Administration and Defence 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N Education 118 71 236 293 447 532 704 712 O Health and Community Services 234 296 314 248 271 303 344 369 P Cultural and Recreational Services 136 62 48 51 51 190 228 212 Q Personal and other Services 27 12 87 80 131 133 151 158 Total All Industries 1,976 1,117 2,055 2,206 2,957 3,325 3,980 4,378
As would be expected, the Flat Bush catchment has seen considerable proportional growth given the actual and expected growth in residential activity in the area. The vast majority of activity in this area has been driven by the local market, due to its limited accessibility at this point. Of the increase of 2,400 employees well over 2,000 of these are in retailing and consumer based businesses.
TABLE 2: AIRPORT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 406 462 328 510 326 291 322 462 B Mining 23 12 18 18 15 18 27 24 C Manufacturing 5,188 4,941 4,911 5,034 5,179 5,279 5,056 4,659 D Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 120 150 155 140 125 140 140 150 E Construction 596 482 456 466 441 590 797 743 F Wholesale Trade 1,836 1,646 1,736 1,757 1,816 2,004 2,132 2,325 G Retail Trade 2,809 2,814 2,898 2,851 2,818 2,956 3,127 3,213 H Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 2,099 2,024 1,972 1,953 2,163 2,212 2,303 2,213 I Transport and Storage 7,008 7,128 7,096 7,548 8,174 9,098 9,434 9,854 J Communication Services 706 793 767 769 916 947 994 925 K Finance and Insurance 205 224 235 276 285 249 362 297 L Property and Business Services 1,701 2,042 2,213 2,317 2,475 2,381 2,667 2,633 M Government Administration and Defence 810 796 924 994 889 996 1,011 1,052 N Education 2,144 2,230 2,440 2,679 2,654 2,971 2,764 2,980 O Health and Community Services 4,578 4,794 4,948 4,836 4,974 5,084 5,221 5,334 P Cultural and Recreational Services 246 213 259 272 282 331 341 373 Q Personal and other Services 562 693 633 718 960 964 1,003 1,107 Total All Industries 31,037 31,444 31,989 33,138 34,492 36,511 37,701 38,344
Transport & Storage and Wholesale Trade have made up over half the employment growth within the Airport catchment, while manufacturing in this area has dropped. Due to the high level of accessibility and the increased supply of land the area has become highly desirable for Storage and increasingly commercial activity (especially support services). This demand has pushed out more price sensitive activities that do not require these attributes at this level.
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TABLE 3: MANUREWA EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 125 123 116 92 76 114 131 77 B Mining 21 24 20 20 18 18 18 18 C Manufacturing 7,976 7,735 7,524 7,330 7,622 7,799 7,219 6,709 D Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 100 45 0 0 0 3 0 0 E Construction 952 875 842 983 1,107 1,473 1,462 1,596 F Wholesale Trade 3,026 3,286 3,621 3,581 3,429 3,503 3,514 3,616 G Retail Trade 5,042 5,210 4,997 4,778 5,063 5,110 5,417 5,342 H Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 921 875 911 886 913 916 977 990 I Transport and Storage 1,256 1,308 1,445 1,420 1,279 1,408 1,621 1,673 J Communication Services 253 276 383 401 420 435 412 411 K Finance and Insurance 349 444 403 437 538 524 589 595 L Property and Business Services 2,610 2,562 2,466 2,900 4,360 4,200 4,160 4,359 M Government Administration and Defence 1,213 1,300 1,263 1,460 1,635 1,400 1,505 1,678 N Education 1,670 1,313 1,783 2,053 2,021 2,140 2,042 2,378 O Health and Community Services 1,418 1,493 1,418 1,458 1,607 1,546 1,845 1,787 P Cultural and Recreational Services 498 471 519 644 623 632 644 665 Q Personal and other Services 757 740 850 898 977 1,062 1,228 1,204 Total All Industries 28,187 28,080 28,561 29,341 31,688 32,283 32,784 33,098 Manurewa has seen a fall in more traditional industrial activities towards more office based businesses. This move has come about due to residential pressures and reverse sensitivity issues, as well as the associated land costs. It is important that any commercial activity in this area be contained, where possible, within existing centres as more residential pressures are applied in this area.
TABLE 4: HOWICK EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 15 35 65 70 67 104 64 138 B Mining 66630000 C Manufacturing 1,419 1,594 1,786 1,630 1,466 1,414 1,220 1,152 D Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 E Construction 817 732 683 772 874 969 1,073 1,065 F Wholesale Trade 527 691 757 805 671 835 843 870 G Retail Trade 3,175 3,199 3,417 3,575 3,906 3,868 3,980 4,003 H Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 999 1,083 1,184 1,185 1,204 1,287 1,319 1,249 I Transport and Storage 405 382 460 489 457 521 483 498 J Communication Services 185 197 172 147 137 192 192 196 K Finance and Insurance 241 355 259 278 308 304 347 410 L Property and Business Services 1,135 1,080 1,098 1,248 1,359 1,458 1,497 1,493 M Government Administration and Defence3636363642444959 N Education 2,156 1,984 2,244 2,435 2,547 2,700 2,547 2,810 O Health and Community Services 1,118 1,587 1,644 1,682 1,577 1,663 1,626 1,691 P Cultural and Recreational Services 541 444 430 414 469 492 521 509 Q Personal and other Services 588 599 600 559 628 717 781 1,012 Total All Industries 13,363 14,004 14,841 15,328 15,712 16,568 16,542 17,155
The growth of employment has been relatively uniform. Given the expected fall in manufacturing most other sectors have seen relatively even growth based on population intensification in the catchment. This area is likely to see moderate growth based on this population over the foreseeable future. The potential for marked growth is limited by its accessibility and the excessive land costs once again supported by the residential population.
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TABLE 5: EAST TAMAKI EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 3548303039393630 B Mining 0 0 0 0 20 90 18 0 C Manufacturing 9,027 9,236 9,401 10,042 10,385 11,063 11,503 12,057 D Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 66 126 251 248 298 401 406 481 E Construction 976 1,121 1,173 1,228 1,354 1,472 1,470 1,527 F Wholesale Trade 3,381 3,561 3,731 3,927 4,243 4,280 4,598 4,775 G Retail Trade 2,169 2,163 2,111 2,273 2,443 2,526 2,562 2,393 H Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 156 210 262 352 435 386 486 440 I Transport and Storage 981 845 623 707 778 834 871 911 J Communication Services 115 15 15 18 24 56 186 181 K Finance and Insurance 284 323 246 240 245 418 444 489 L Property and Business Services 1,095 1,761 2,353 2,817 3,823 4,082 4,846 5,222 M Government Administration and Defence8872282925254040 N Education 1,519 1,637 1,684 1,783 1,927 1,985 1,868 1,975 O Health and Community Services 336 402 451 440 489 490 611 870 P Cultural and Recreational Services 94 90 195 182 230 290 312 309 Q Personal and other Services 271 287 282 324 385 409 454 389 Total All Industries 20,593 21,897 22,836 24,640 27,143 28,846 30,711 32,089
Of all the identified catchments East Tamaki has seen the most significant growth both in employment, business and land prices. This area is supported by a growing population, both though out the catchment and into Howick, elevated amenity and a high level of accessibility. It is interesting to note that a significant proportion of growth has been in manufacturing. While there is a persistent trend in manufacturing to fall, there have been gains in higher value manufacturing and relocations from more central locations within Auckland City. These are the sectors that Manukau and this area specifically should be pursuing.
TABLE 6: RURAL MANUKAU EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTOR (2000 – 2007) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 228 270 256 305 239 222 204 258 B Mining 15 51 51 51 51 30 15 9 C Manufacturing 124 161 158 181 177 222 218 224 D Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 2018201818181515 E Construction 218 245 252 343 347 392 398 408 F Wholesale Trade 67 68 107 73 112 120 119 77 G Retail Trade 80 69 78 101 116 123 169 160 H Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 265 140 181 133 108 60 203 228 I Transport and Storage 78 86 133 105 101 95 92 92 J Communication Services 0 0 6 6 9 3 6 3 K Finance and Insurance 9 3 6 9 9 6 9 18 L Property and Business Services 81 164 114 129 147 254 156 193 M Government Administration and Defence 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N Education 116 120 124 138 137 158 141 163 O Health and Community Services 33 36 42 33 42 48 57 56 P Cultural and Recreational Services 54 48 36 36 51 39 42 48 Q Personal and other Services 61 64 62 53 69 77 75 109 Total All Industries 1,449 1,543 1,626 1,714 1,733 1,867 1,919 2,061
The Rural catchment has seen little nominal movement over the past 7 years. Growth has fluctuated wildly with most sectors experiencing some level of gain. Much of the movement generally has been away from these locations to more accessible areas with higher amenity and better facilities.
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5.3 Future Employment Growth By Sector This sector projected employment for Manukau City based on a variety of factors including: • National and Regional GDP and employment projections • Population projections – these are key both to labour force projections and population based employment (e.g. Retail EC’s, Personal Service EC’s). The population projections utilised here are based on the ARC growth strategy. • Labour Force projections (skilled / unskilled) • Regional ability to accommodate growth, specially the potential relocation of business (industrial) activity from the Auckland City. • Manukau’s relative business land supply and prices • Trended growth • Economic development directions • Locational criteria by sector • National / Regional and local supply of inputted goods and location of market • Business sector analysis The employment sectors directly derived from population increases are retail, education, personal services, health & community services and a proportion of construction.
TABLE 7: ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR FOR MANUKAU CITY (TO 2060) 2007 2016 2046 2060 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 1,014 1,148 1,661 1,838 Mining 51 58 52 50 Manufacturing 24,867 27,217 42,103 46,589 Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 646 1,123 1,557 1,723 Construction 5,660 6,782 10,491 11,608 Wholesale Trade 11,744 14,382 20,172 22,322 Retail Trade 16,435 18,903 26,126 28,910 Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 5,549 6,391 10,925 12,089 Transport and Storage 13,188 16,536 24,552 27,168 Communication Services 1,731 2,117 3,275 3,624 Finance and Insurance 1,918 2,651 4,102 4,539 Property and Business Services 14,273 16,575 25,641 28,373 Government Administration and Defence 2,829 3,168 4,900 5,422 Education 11,018 14,224 18,889 20,902 Health and Community Services 10,107 12,098 18,714 20,708 Cultural and Recreational Services 2,116 2,393 3,702 4,096 Personal and Other Services 3,979 5,478 8,474 9,377 Total All Industries 127,125 151,244 225,334 249,346
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Based on the factors above Property Economics has projected employment by sector for Manukau City. It is important to note that this distribution is based primarily on national employment and GDP projection distributed through a competitive analysis of Manukau’s business environment and the relative changes likely to result from changes in the competing environments at both a business and residential level. Sector distribution is also based on national and international growth trends, locational attributes sought as well as empirical trends.
6. FUTURE COMMERCIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR The changes in employment composition and size outlined in the section above are translated into estimated land demand figures within this section. An important factor to consider here is the impact that increased or restricted supply of appropriately located business land has on this demand. It is important to be aware of the balance between supply led demand and potentially over supplying inappropriate business land and the impact that this has on the City’s business environment. Obviously removing restrictions on more business land has the potential to increase the growth projections in the preceding section. This increase in supply improves the competitive nature of Manukau’s business environment, potentially reducing relative costs and improving the City’s attractiveness to outside business. However there are several factors that need to be considered here. They include: • The fall in land costs may introduce businesses that are short-term and are ultimately detrimental to the sustainability of Manukau’s economy • It may reduce the viability of other uses impacting on Manukau’s land productivity and land is ‘banked’. • It may result in ‘uncontrolled’ development that fails to capitalise on clustered business and efficiencies of infrastructure and servicing • Reduces the relative costs of other externalities (e.g. resulting lower land costs may cover transportation inefficiencies) For the purposes of this report it has been assumed that the supply of business land in Manukau will service some demand that ‘spills over’ from demand generated through Auckland City activity. Tables 3 and 4 below translate employment size with the relative land demand by sector. This ratio between EC’s and net business land demand is dynamic with evident trends in each sector both increasing and reducing land intensity. The ratios utilised in these tables are the result of data gathered and analysed from rating databases around the country. These ratios are of course sensitive to land costs and the size and efficiency of the local economy. Tables 8 and 9 are the resulting land demand figures (at ground level) for both the commercial and industrial sectors. Table 8 shows commercial land demand by 2060 increasing by 308 hectares. However given the relative (and increasing, although this is relative to land cost and therefore supply) land intensity the pragmatic result of this demand is more likely to accommodate itself on approximately 129 hectares. The intensity of this development will rely on land costs and therefore competing attributes, with intensity in and around centres at a greater average than that dispersed around the City.
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TABLE 8: PROJECTED COMMERCIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR FOR MANUKAU CITY (TO 2060 (NET))
Property, Business Sector Communication Health Government Other Total Services & Finance
Employee Growth (EC) 2008-2016 386 3,036 1,991 339 481 6,232 2016-2060 1,507 13,685 8,611 2,255 1,002 27,059 2008-2060 1,893 16,721 10,601 2,593 1,483 33,291 Floorspace Growth (sqm) 2008-2016 12,312 71,039 75,642 13,745 36,792 209,530 2016-2060 48,067 320,232 327,208 91,536 76,622 863,664 2008-2060 60,379 391,271 402,850 105,281 113,414 1,073,194 Land Requirements (ha) 2008-2016 4 16 26 5 8 59 2016-2060 17 71 113 32 17 249 2008-2060 21 87 139 36 25 308
7. FUTURE INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR Table 9 illustrates the likely demand for industrial land by 2060 increasing by approximately 1,400 hectares. This is the result of substantial growth in both the Manufacturing and Transport & Storage sectors. Some of this demand can be attributed to the ‘over flow’ for Auckland City where land prices and demand pressures are likely to result in a movement south of more land intensive businesses. It is important to note that this figure is the net demand for industrial land with the gross figure being closer to 2,000 – 2,500 hectares of land required to met this demand when considering the services required to facilitate this land.
TABLE 9: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND BY SECTOR FOR MANUKAU CITY (TO 2060 (NET))
Transport & Sectors Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Trade Other Total Storage Employee Growth (EC) 2008-2016 2,350 3,348 1,122 2,638 498 9,955 2016-2060 19,372 10,632 4,827 7,939 661 43,432 2008-2060 21,722 13,980 5,948 10,578 1,159 53,387 Floorspace Growth (sqm) 2008-2016 143,117 388,315 32,525 191,283 59,205 814,444 2016-2060 1,179,774 1,233,354 139,980 575,597 78,582 3,207,288 2008-2060 1,322,891 1,621,669 172,505 766,881 137,787 4,021,732 Land Requirements (ha) 2008-2016 49 134 11 66 20 281 2016-2060 407 425 48 198 27 1,106 2008-2060 456 559 59 264 48 1,387
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8. BUSINESS LOCATION CRITERIA
8.1 Industrial Sector The location decision process of industrial companies if often complex and is specific to each business and its operational requirements. There are however a set of key locational criteria that give an understanding of the factors affecting business location. These are outlined below. • Undisrupted water and electricity supply. Note for some businesses the escalating price of electricity translates into lower profit margins, especially in power intensive industries. Black-outs and power surges are costly occurrences for businesses, especially if generators need to be hired. • Digital capability – especially access to broadband. Many businesses now require uninterrupted broadband access. This also helps future-proof the business location. • Close proximity / good access to transportation hubs, such as ports and airports. This is particularly important for logistics and warehousing/distribution businesses. This can clearly be seen by the new businesses establishing in or around the business parks close to the major airports around the country, such as Auckland and Christchurch, which are heavily dominated by logistics and freight forwarding companies. • Proximity to an appropriate labour supply. This varied between sectors based on the skill level of the workers required. For example many manufacturing businesses required lower skilled workers compared to businesses in the professional services sectors, so the location requirements were slightly different. For many industrial businesses access to labour is an important consideration in their location decision making processes, especially for manufacturing businesses where access to semi-skilled labour is vital. In general, business locations in areas that have a lower level of access to the workforce are seen as problematic. • Location of customers / target markets (domestic and international). This has a strong influence on location depending on whether the business is servicing a localised market, a regional market or the national or international market. For those businesses servicing the localised market a central location was preferable to reduce travel costs. For those servicing the national and international markets, those businesses that had large transport costs sought locations in closest proximity to State Highway 1. • Access to major road corridors. This is important for staff getting to work, clients/reps visiting premises, and the efficient distribution of goods. Sites (or locations) adjacent to major arterial roads were preferred and often received a premium in the market. All activities that have a distribution/logistical focus prefer these locations. As part of this criterion, improved transportation in industrial areas was mentioned by numerous businesses as a future requirement, particularly in regard to better roading networks, traffic management, and close to public transport services.
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• Location of suppliers. This can be especially important for businesses that have significant raw material inputs and freight costs. • A company’s existing network and infrastructure. This can have a major influence on location, especially for national franchises to avoid inefficiencies. • Room for potential expansion and growth on the site. For most businesses relocating is a very expensive exercise, and for businesses with significant investment costs into plant and machinery, they like to have a level of certainty that they will be able to operate from the site for a long period of time to ensure they achieve a return on their investment. Thus having the ability to expand their operation to allow for business growth onsite is important. It’s an important consideration for businesses who want to mitigate long term risks. • Land and property costs. This is a key criterion in the location decision of almost all businesses, particularly those that operate on low margins. • Potential to secure resource consent. Often if the resource consent process is going to be long and drawn out, most businesses will not enter the process at all as time delays can have significant effects to their bottom line and business operations. As such certainty is seen as a big benefit to business locations who can offer it. A master planned development with Council approval removes this risk. • Level of congestion in peak times. This is becoming increasingly important, as it can have a significant influence on delivery businesses. In many main centres for example, this is now a major consideration where time delays and trucks getting caught in traffic is having significant flow-on implications for company logistics and their ability to service clients to the level required. • Owner’s home address. This is predominantly for smaller businesses that have a greater level of flexibility on where they can locate. • Exposure / Profile. Most businesses seek locations that offer some level of exposure and profile. This is a cost effective method of marketing and is able to elevate the brand of a business significantly.
8.2 Commercial Office Sector Key criteria for office businesses when looking for a location (in no particular order) include: • Carparking: Having an appropriate provision of carparking enables businesses to access staff and clients and is fundamental to a productive commercial environment. • Accessibility: Access to clients and a workforce are fundamental to the productivity and efficiency of a commercial environment. This requires sufficient carparking, roading infrastructure and public transport.
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• Profile: Profile is important to office business. This incorporates several aspects, including physical profile (the presence of a brand) and the prestige profile, relating to the perception of quality a location can instil in a business. • OPEX (Operational Expenses) – rent, body corporate, rates, lighting, power, carpark costs, etc. OPEX can have an influence on the total cost of doing business, and in locations were rates increase total OPEX will be less • Building quality: Many highly productive office based businesses require high quality buildings to attract clients and retain staff. Having a supply of A-Grade office space is a clear indication of a high performing office market. This applies to small through to large sized office buildings. • Space flexibility: Room for potential expansion and growth on the site. For many businesses relocating is a very expensive exercise, and for businesses with significant investment costs into plant and machinery, they like to have a level of certainty that they will be able to operate from the site for a long period of time to ensure they achieve a return on their investment. Thus having the ability to expand their operation to allow for business growth onsite is important. It’s an important consideration for businesses who want to mitigate long term risks. • Amenity: Amenity is becoming more important for business location decisions, in large part because firms are looking to provide a high quality environment to attract and retain staff. Amenity refers both the urban environment and the range of shops and services that can be accessed from a location. Of particular importance is access to high quality cafes and restaurants.
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9. RETAIL DEMAND Table 10 below estimates the total demand for retail floorspace in Manukau City to 2060. It shows an estimated increase in net retail floorspace of some 670,000sqm required over the next 50 years. In terms of gross retail floorspace this equates to around 960,000sqm, while the total amount of land required to accommodate this, under projected conditions, is 213 hectares of ‘at grade’ land. TABLE 10: TOTAL ESTIMATED RETAIL FLOORSPACE DEMAND (TO 2060) 2007 (sqm) 2046 (sqm) 2060 (sqm) Food Retailing 83,744 199,918 226,966 Footwear 3,574 8,531 9,686 Clothing and Softgoods 22,080 52,710 59,842 Furniture and Floorcoverings 28,688 68,486 77,752 Appliance Retailing 46,244 110,395 125,331 Hardware 25,263 60,309 68,468 Chemist 11,090 26,474 30,056 Department Stores 67,439 160,993 182,775 Recreational Goods 29,823 71,195 80,827 Cafes, Restaurants and Takeaways 25,311 60,422 68,597 Personal and Household Services 18,214 43,482 49,365 Other Stores 29,973 71,553 81,233 Total 391,444 934,469 1,060,897
Retail land demand is based on several factors including: • Projected population / household changes • Income projections • Demographic composition • Real retail growth of 1% per annum (based on trend data from the past 20 years along with relevant changes) • Proportional non-spatial retail demand e.g. mail order and internet retailing trends • Sustainable retail floorspace productivities, based on a tempered average national average These retail projections are based on the average retail generation which equates to demand. This demand includes ‘spend’ that ‘leaks’ in or out of the catchment as well any retail spend that does not enter the market due to the lack of local retail offer.
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10. BUSINESS INTENSIFICATION SCENARIOS Assumptions: • Higher density commercial development • Future levels of intensity differ for each sector but average at approximately 2.7 levels (excluding the opportunity for retail space at ground level) in centre, and an average of 1.9 levels in other areas TABLE 11: COMMERCIAL LAND REQUIREMENT WITH INTENSIFICATION Land Requirements (ha) 2008-2016 3 8 12 3 6 30 2016-2060 8 27 41 15 8 99 2008-2060 10 35 53 18 14 129 In-centre 7 23 32 12 11 85 Other 3 12 21 5 3 44 Source: Property Economics
• Higher density industrial development • Increased volume / land area for storage and transportation. A trended position (from regional data) would suggest that technology is allowing storage to increase vertically. If this trend were to continue the per employee ratio require would fall by over 200sqm. • Manufacturing too shows trends of intensification on land that is increasing in value, although at a slower rate than storage. These trends would indicate a fall of some 38% of land per employee (this is based on increasing land productivity) by 2060. • Both construction and trade show some inclination towards intensification, however the fact that they are generally higher value sectors has tempered this likelihood. TABLE 12: INDUSTRIAL LAND REQUIREMENT WITH INTENSIFICATION Land Requirements (ha) 2008-2016 36 84 11 63 20 213 2016-2060 252 185 46 179 26 688 2008-2060 288 269 57 241 46 901
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10.1 Future Business Locations This section seeks to distribute this business land demand based on the attributes required by each of the industrial and commercial sectors. The industrial demand is based on net land rather than the intensified figure due to the differing land price in each area. Tables 14 to 17 distribute industrial land demand between the four main (based on the City’s attributes) industrial areas both now and in the future. It also bases this on the competitive nature of these areas in comparison to Tauranga, Hamilton and Franklin. TABLE 13: TOTAL INDUSTRIAL LOCATIONAL DEMANDS (2060) Large Medium Small Lots Lots (ha) Lots (ha) (ha) Total (ha) Low Value 475 182 47 705 Medium Value 242 274 56 572 High Value 36 32 43 110
Total 754 488 145 1,387
Table 14 outlines the likely future demand for industrial land at the Airport. This demand is based primarily on storage and transportation which requires a significant amount of medium sized (2 – 8,000sqm), medium priced sites. This equates to 364 hectares of business land. TABLE 14: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL AIRPORT DEMAND (2060) Large Medium Small Lots Lots (ha) Lots (ha) (ha) Total (ha) Low Value 121 47 4 172 Medium Value 82 82 7 171 High Value 311721 Total 207 139 18 364
Table 15 shows that the locational attributes of Wiri are likely to result in the greatest demand for future industrial land in this area. A prime consideration here is accessibility and the affordability of this location. TABLE 15: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL WIRI DEMAND (2060) Large Medium Small Lots Lots (ha) Lots (ha) (ha) Total (ha)
Low Value 242 93 14 349 Medium Value 103 116 17 236 High Value 34513 Total 348 214 36 598
The Mangere area is likely to accommodate industrial businesses that service a more localised area and therefore will be relatively over represented by smaller lots. TABLE 16: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL MANGERE DEMAND (2060) Large Medium Small Lots Lots (ha) Lots (ha) (ha) Total (ha)
Low Value 40 16 16 72 Medium Value 21 35 17 72 High Value 0055
Total 61 50 38 149
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Table 17 shows the demand in East Tamaki and Highbrook is based around niche manufacturing and its future potential accessibility to commercial businesses in this area and from Auckland City. This area is key to growth in higher value industrial production for Manukau and it is therefore important to protect this form of business as commercial activity already encroaches on this land supply. TABLE 17: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL EAST TAMAKI / HIGHBROOK DEMAND (2060) Large Medium Small Lots Lots (ha) Lots (ha) (ha) Total (ha)
Low Value 0066 Medium Value 0077 High Value 25 12 18 55 Total 25 12 31 68
As for industrial land demand distribution, the projected commercial land demand to 2060 is distributed by the aligning of locational attributes with those of each sector. Once again the intensification of land use is based on the land price however this is more likely for commercial activity than industrial and therefore is included is this analysis. Also, as with the industrial distribution, not all of the demand is accommodated within the identified areas for commercial activity the most obvious of these are Manukau Central and Flatbush.
TABLE 18: TOTAL COMMERCIAL LOCATIONAL DEMANDS (2060)
Low Medium High Intensity Intensity Intensity (ha) (ha) (ha) Total (ha) Low Value 56 15 4 76 Medium Value 17 17 7 41 High Value 61512 Total 80 33 16 129
Table 19 outlines the estimated demand for commercial land at the airport. This demand has continued to grow over the past few years as an increasing number of support services locate here. It is estimated that the majority of this demand will be in large cheaper priced lots.
TABLE 19: PROJECTED COMMERCIAL AIRPORT DEMAND (2060) Large Lots Medium Small Lots (ha) Lots (ha) (ha) Total (ha) Low Value 11 5 0 16
Medium Value 3419 High Value 1001 Total 16 9 1 26 Wiri too is expected to attract a greater number of commercial support services over the next 50 years. Support services that locate here are likely to require large inexpensive lots.
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TABLE 20: PROJECTED WIRI DEMAND (2060) Large Lots Medium Small Lots (ha) Lots (ha) (ha) Total (ha) Low Value 14 3 0 17
Medium Value 3205 High Value 0000 Total 18 5 0 22
The commercial demand for Mangere is expected to be low with only a further 5 hectares of new commercial land demanded here. This excludes the intensification of current activity.
TABLE 21: PROJECTED COMMERCIAL MANGERE DEMAND (2060) Large Lots Medium Small Lots (ha) Lots (ha) (ha) Total (ha)
Low Value 3104 Medium Value 1001 High Value 0000 Total 4105
Finally Table 22 outlines what has the potential to be a significant commercial hub for Manukau City. With access to a highly skilled workforce, high amenity and accessibility this location will attract both large and smaller commercial businesses. This is likely to be highlighted through increased accessibility through planned roading projects.
TABLE 22: PROJECTED COMMERCIAL EAST TAMAKI / HIGHBROOK DEMAND (2060) Large Lots Medium Small Lots (ha) Lots (ha) (ha) Total (ha)
Low Value 11 5 3 19 Medium Value 67417 High Value 4138 Total 21 13 9 43
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