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PRESENT and FUTURE TRENDS 2.1 the Form of the City I 2.2 Growth of the City 2.3 the Existing Population

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PRESENT and FUTURE TRENDS 2.1 the Form of the City I 2.2 Growth of the City 2.3 the Existing Population I I I PART 2 THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS 2.1 The Form of the City I 2.2 Growth of the City 2.3 The Existing Population I 2.4 Future Population Growth I 2.5 Employment 2.6 Building Development and Demand I 2.7 Energy Conservation and Land Use 2.8 Rural Land Use I 2.9 Future Urban Growth I 2.10 Land presently zoned for Urban Uses I I I I I I I I I I I I I PART 2 THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS I I 2.1 THE FORM OF THE CITY Manukau City had a population in March 1981 of 159,362. Its land area of over 600 square kilometres dominates the southern part of the Auckland Region. I The territorial integrity of the district, which stretches from the edge of the Auckland isthmus in the north to the Hunua ranges in the South, is interrupted only by the local authority enclaves of Papatoetoe City and 0tahuhu and Howick I Boroughs. The Manukau City Centre, 25 km south of Auckland Centre, is the natural geographical focus of the city's urban area . When fully developed the urban area I will stretch out from the Centre southwards to Manurewa and Takanini, northeastwards to Otara and Pakuranga and northwest to Mangere. Two-thirds of the City's land area is in rural use, ranging from dairy and town milk supply I units to pastoral farming, horticulture and forestry . A distinctive feature of the district is its extensive coastline of 320 km. In the west is the Manukau Harbour, from which the City takes its name. In the east is I the Hauraki Gulf and in the north the Tamaki River. Residential development in the urban part of the City has taken full advantage of the coastline. In the rural areas small coastal settlements have developed further I south under strictly controlled conditions at beach locations. These small settlements include Beachlands and Maraetai which are developing as dormitory coastal suburbs of Manukau City, the small rural settlement of Whitford, and two coastal settlements at Kawakawa Bay and 0rere Point. The rural town of I Clevedon is established further inland in the fertile Clevedon Valley. In the west, urban development has generally been concentrated along the main north-south corridor. Much of the west coast remains in rural or natural condition I but parts of it are dominated by major public works or utilities, including Auckland International Airport. I Near the Manukau Harbour and the Tamaki River the land is low-lying and easily developed for urban purposes. Inland and to the east the land rises to more than 500 m above sea level. The hill country is made up of the block of hills from Brookby-Maraetai, which form a natural geographic boundary to act as the I ultimate limit to urban development. To the south of these hills is a down-faulted flat valley extending from Takanini to Clevedon. Beyond the Clevedon Valley lie the Ardmore Hills and the Hunua I Ranges which form the southern boundary of the district. In the west, lowland volcanic eruptions have formed scoria cones and craters in I East Tamaki, Mangere and Wiri . Beyond the areas of urban development, lower-lying land is mostly pasture often featuring mature shelter belts, while scrub and bush are more prevalent on more I hilly land. In the deep gullies, large tree ferns remain while pockets of native totara and kahikatea still exist in some places. Between Clevedon and Maraetai I there is one of the last significant stands of native bush in South Auckland . I I I CITY OF MANUKAU FIRST REVIEW I I PART 2 THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TREND S I 2.2 GROWTH OF THE CITY I Urban development in South Auckland was established before the 1 940s with distinct settlements at coastal landing points and at road and rail intersections. Mangere Bridge, Manurewa and Papatoetoe are examples of these. I The accelerated growth of South Auckland from a population of 30,000 in 1 945 to 227,700 in 1981 when Manukau City grew from 15,000 to 159,000 during the same years, has been a post-war phenomenon which has been influenced by the following factors: I • The increasing post-war industrialisation of Auckland and its expansion southwards along the Penrose-Otahuhu road and rail corridor to Manukau I Central and Greenmount in the 1960s which provided an increasing number of jobs. • The construction of the Southern Motorway in the 1950s which increased I the accessibility of South Auckland for individuals and firms. • The establishment of the Mangere sewage treatment plant, the Auckland International Airport, the water supply from the Hunuas and electricity I generation at Otara, all of which provided South Auckland with an infrastructure that was capable of catering for large scale urban development. These investment decisions by the central and regional Governments were a key factor in the growth of Manukau City. I • The presence of low-lying, easily-serviced land in Manukau City in combination with the above three factors were instrumental in the I Government embarking on major state housing programmes, first in Otara during the 1950s, and later in Mang ere and Manurewa. It was during this period of rapid state housing construction from 1 961 to 1 966 that the population of Manukau City almost doubled from 39,000 to 73,000 and I provided the base for future growth. • Increasing car ownership and the mobility it gave to individuals was a prime factor in the growth and the decentralised nature of Manukau City during I these formative years. For 15 years from 1961 to 1976 the population of Manukau City grew at a steady I rate of approximately 6,700 per year. Although this growth rate has declined in common with retrenchment elsewhere in New Zealand, population growth and the rate of development is still higher than elsewhere due to the natural advantages listed above. I 2.3 THE EXISTING POPULATION I The table below shows that over the 20 years from 1 961 to 1 981 the average yearly increase in the population of the City was approximately 6,000 persons. I TABLE 1: CENSUS POPULATION OF MANUKAU CITY ( 1961-81) Year 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 I Population 39, 1 55 73,172 103,967 139,059 159,362 Intercensal Increase 34,017 30,795 35,092 20,303 I Percentage Increase 86 .9% 42.1 % 33.8% 14.6% (Sou rce: M anukau City Council Bu ilding Pe rmi t Records) I I CITY OF MANUKAU 2 FIRST RE V IE W I I PART 2 THE CITY: PRES ENT AND FUTURE TREN DS I With a declining birt h rate and reduced migration (both internal and external) at the national and regional level, the rate of population growth in Manukau City during I the 1980's will level out from the high rates experienced between 1961 and 1981. The birth rate in the City was 38.5 per 1000 in 1971 , 21 .4 per 1000 in 1976 and 18.8 per 1000 in 1981 . The total number of births was 3105 in 1971, I 2978 in 1976 and 2993 in 198 1. The level of natural increase was 2576 in 1971, 2394 in 1976 and 2 222 in 1981. The rate of natural increase has decreased from 24.7 person per 1000 in 1971 to 17 per 1000 in 1976 and 13.9 I per 1 000 in 1 981 . 2.4 FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH I The m agnitude of future population growth in M anukau City is uncertain given the dramatic demographic changes that hav e occurred ov er t he f ew y ea rs I preceding this revi ew of the schem e. Consequently future estimates of population growth are based on a " hi gh" and a "low" projection . The median projection is based on the difference between the I high and low projections. TABLE 2: POPULATION PROJECTIONS (1981-1996) (Manu ka u City Council estimates) I Census Year Low Median High 1981 159,362 1986 172,000 182,000 192,000 1 991 191 ,000 208,000 225,000 I 1996 212 ,000 236,000 2 6 0 ,000 I The " low" and " hi gh" projecti ons are based on t he foll owing assumptions: High Projection (a) The rate of natural increase will fall only slightly after 1981 and will t end t o I level out by 1996. 1 (b) After 1981 New Zealand will experience a net gain through migration ( ) of approximately 10,000 persons per year. I (c ) The level of internal migration into M anukau City will gradually in crea se ov er the years 1981 - 1996. I Low Projection (a) The rate of natural increase will fall at a slower rate over the years 1 981 - 1 996 than it did between 1971 -81. 1 I (b) After 1 983 new Zealand will experience a net gain through migration ( ) of approximately 5,000 persons per year . I (c ) The lev el of internal migration into M anukau Cit y will in crease only sli ght ly ov er the y ears 1981 - 1996. It is considered that future population growth will fall somewhere betwee n the I "high" and " low" projections and will be primarily dependent upon the level of intern al and ext ern al migration which are the most v olatile of the dem ographic I f actors affecting population growth. (') March Yea r Total Migration (NZ) M arch Yea r Total Migration (NZ) 1976 6567 1980 - 22,299 1977 - 1 3727 1981 - 1 5,328 I 1978 -22307 1982 - 5,182 1979 -26906 1983 + 15.8 5 2 I (Sou rce: M onthly Abstrac t of Statistics,) CITY OF MA NU KAU 3 FIR ST REV IE W I I PART 2 THE CITY : PRE SEN T A ND FU TURE TR EN DS I 2.5 EMPLOYMENT I Between 1 971 and 1 981 the rate of growth of the residential labour force was greater (57.23%) than the rate of growth of the population (53.28%) which reflects the 'ageing' of the population as more people enter the work force.
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