I I I PART 2 THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS 2.1 The Form of the City I 2.2 Growth of the City 2.3 The Existing Population

I 2.4 Future Population Growth I 2.5 Employment 2.6 Building Development and Demand I 2.7 Energy Conservation and Land Use 2.8 Rural Land Use

I 2.9 Future Urban Growth I 2.10 Land presently zoned for Urban Uses I I I I I I I I I I I I I PART 2 THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS I I 2.1 THE FORM OF THE CITY City had a population in March 1981 of 159,362. Its land area of over 600 square kilometres dominates the southern part of the Region. I The territorial integrity of the district, which stretches from the edge of the Auckland isthmus in the north to the Hunua ranges in the South, is interrupted only by the local authority enclaves of City and 0tahuhu and Howick I Boroughs. The Centre, 25 km south of Auckland Centre, is the natural geographical focus of the city's urban area . When fully developed the urban area I will stretch out from the Centre southwards to and , northeastwards to and and northwest to . Two-thirds of the City's land area is in rural use, ranging from dairy and town milk supply I units to pastoral farming, horticulture and forestry . A distinctive feature of the district is its extensive coastline of 320 km. In the west is the , from which the City takes its name. In the east is I the and in the north the . Residential development in the urban part of the City has taken full advantage of the coastline. In the rural areas small coastal settlements have developed further I south under strictly controlled conditions at beach locations. These small settlements include Beachlands and which are developing as dormitory coastal suburbs of Manukau City, the small rural settlement of Whitford, and two coastal settlements at Kawakawa Bay and 0rere Point. The rural town of I Clevedon is established further inland in the fertile Clevedon Valley. In the west, urban development has generally been concentrated along the main north-south corridor. Much of the west coast remains in rural or natural condition I but parts of it are dominated by major public works or utilities, including Auckland International Airport. I Near the Manukau Harbour and the Tamaki River the land is low-lying and easily developed for urban purposes. Inland and to the east the land rises to more than 500 m above sea level. The hill country is made up of the block of hills from Brookby-Maraetai, which form a natural geographic boundary to act as the I ultimate limit to urban development. To the south of these hills is a down-faulted flat valley extending from Takanini to Clevedon. Beyond the Clevedon Valley lie the Ardmore Hills and the Hunua I Ranges which form the southern boundary of the district.

In the west, lowland volcanic eruptions have formed scoria cones and craters in I , Mangere and . Beyond the areas of urban development, lower-lying land is mostly pasture often featuring mature shelter belts, while scrub and bush are more prevalent on more I hilly land. In the deep gullies, large tree ferns remain while pockets of native totara and kahikatea still exist in some places. Between Clevedon and Maraetai I there is one of the last significant stands of native bush in . I I I CITY OF MANUKAU FIRST REVIEW I I PART 2 THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TREND S I 2.2 GROWTH OF THE CITY I Urban development in South Auckland was established before the 1 940s with distinct settlements at coastal landing points and at road and rail intersections. , Manurewa and Papatoetoe are examples of these. I The accelerated growth of South Auckland from a population of 30,000 in 1 945 to 227,700 in 1981 when Manukau City grew from 15,000 to 159,000 during the same years, has been a post-war phenomenon which has been influenced by the following factors: I

• The increasing post-war industrialisation of Auckland and its expansion southwards along the Penrose- road and rail corridor to Manukau I Central and Greenmount in the 1960s which provided an increasing number of jobs. • The construction of the Southern Motorway in the 1950s which increased I the accessibility of South Auckland for individuals and firms.

• The establishment of the Mangere sewage treatment plant, the Auckland International Airport, the water supply from the Hunuas and electricity I generation at Otara, all of which provided South Auckland with an infrastructure that was capable of catering for large scale urban development. These investment decisions by the central and regional Governments were a key factor in the growth of Manukau City. I

• The presence of low-lying, easily-serviced land in Manukau City in combination with the above three factors were instrumental in the I Government embarking on major programmes, first in Otara during the 1950s, and later in Mang ere and Manurewa. It was during this period of rapid state housing construction from 1 961 to 1 966 that the population of Manukau City almost doubled from 39,000 to 73,000 and I provided the base for future growth.

• Increasing car ownership and the mobility it gave to individuals was a prime factor in the growth and the decentralised nature of Manukau City during I these formative years. For 15 years from 1961 to 1976 the population of Manukau City grew at a steady I rate of approximately 6,700 per year. Although this growth rate has declined in common with retrenchment elsewhere in , population growth and the rate of development is still higher than elsewhere due to the natural advantages listed above. I

2.3 THE EXISTING POPULATION I The table below shows that over the 20 years from 1 961 to 1 981 the average yearly increase in the population of the City was approximately 6,000 persons. I TABLE 1: CENSUS POPULATION OF MANUKAU CITY ( 1961-81) Year 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 I Population 39, 1 55 73,172 103,967 139,059 159,362 Intercensal Increase 34,017 30,795 35,092 20,303 I Percentage Increase 86 .9% 42.1 % 33.8% 14.6% (Sou rce: M anukau City Council Bu ilding Pe rmi t Records) I I CITY OF MANUKAU 2 FIRST RE V IE W I I PART 2 THE CITY: PRES ENT AND FUTURE TREN DS I

With a declining birt h rate and reduced migration (both internal and external) at the national and regional level, the rate of population growth in Manukau City during I the 1980's will level out from the high rates experienced between 1961 and 1981. The birth rate in the City was 38.5 per 1000 in 1971 , 21 .4 per 1000 in 1976 and 18.8 per 1000 in 1981 . The total number of births was 3105 in 1971, I 2978 in 1976 and 2993 in 198 1. The level of natural increase was 2576 in 1971, 2394 in 1976 and 2 222 in 1981. The rate of natural increase has decreased from 24.7 person per 1000 in 1971 to 17 per 1000 in 1976 and 13.9 I per 1 000 in 1 981 .

2.4 FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH I The m agnitude of future population growth in M anukau City is uncertain given the dramatic demographic changes that hav e occurred ov er t he f ew y ea rs I preceding this revi ew of the schem e. Consequently future estimates of population growth are based on a " hi gh" and a "low" projection . The median projection is based on the difference between the I high and low projections. TABLE 2: POPULATION PROJECTIONS (1981-1996) (Manu ka u City Council estimates) I Census Year Low Median High 1981 159,362 1986 172,000 182,000 192,000 1 991 191 ,000 208,000 225,000 I 1996 212 ,000 236,000 2 6 0 ,000 I The " low" and " hi gh" projecti ons are based on t he foll owing assumptions: High Projection (a) The rate of natural increase will fall only slightly after 1981 and will t end t o I level out by 1996. 1 (b) After 1981 New Zealand will experience a net gain through migration ( ) of approximately 10,000 persons per year.

I (c ) The level of internal migration into M anukau City will gradually in crea se ov er the years 1981 - 1996. I Low Projection (a) The rate of natural increase will fall at a slower rate over the years 1 981 - 1 996 than it did between 1971 -81.

1 I (b) After 1 983 new Zealand will experience a net gain through migration ( ) of approximately 5,000 persons per year . I (c ) The lev el of internal migration into M anukau Cit y will in crease only sli ght ly ov er the y ears 1981 - 1996.

It is considered that future population growth will fall somewhere betwee n the I "high" and " low" projections and will be primarily dependent upon the level of intern al and ext ern al migration which are the most v olatile of the dem ographic I f actors affecting population growth.

(') March Yea r Total Migration (NZ) M arch Yea r Total Migration (NZ) 1976 6567 1980 - 22,299 1977 - 1 3727 1981 - 1 5,328 I 1978 -22307 1982 - 5,182 1979 -26906 1983 + 15.8 5 2 I (Sou rce: M onthly Abstrac t of Statistics,) CITY OF MA NU KAU 3 FIR ST REV IE W I I PART 2 THE CITY : PRE SEN T A ND FU TURE TR EN DS I 2.5 EMPLOYMENT I Between 1 971 and 1 981 the rate of growth of the residential labour force was greater (57.23%) than the rate of growth of the population (53.28%) which reflects the 'ageing' of the population as more people enter the work force. I Although over the same period the number of jobs within the City increased by 102.87%, the deficit of jobs to resident labour force has grown from 15,270 to 23,183. This indicates that a large number of workers must commute to jobs outside the City, principally to the isthmus. I

TABLE 3: POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP (1971-1981) 1971 1976 1981 I Population 103,967 139,059 159,362 Residential Labour Force 36,036 51,899 65,312 Jobs 20,766 34,478 42, 1 29 I Job Deficit - 15,270 - 17,421 - 23, 1 83 (Source: Population Census 1971, 1976, 19811 I With the exception of the transport, storage and communication sector the deficit of jobs to resident workers occurs in all the employment sectors but is most marked in the manufacturing, wholesale and retail trades sectors, which account I for over half of the total deficit. There is also a notable shortfall in office jobs.

The attainment of an adequate level of employment will be a key issue in the future development of Manukau. Employment in the City is highly dependent on I manufacturing jobs, the sector which is most sensitive to economic fluctuations. With more stringent conditions forecast, the expansion in manufacturing employment will be less than previously. Furthermore, there is a growing need I for more "office" jobs in the City to establish a more balanced employment structure. A number of new commercial zones are introduced in this scheme which are assigned to encourage new jobs in this field. I 2.6 BUILDING DEVELOPMENT AND DEMAND I Building activity, particularly in the housing sector, has levelled out since the boom years of 1975 and 1976, and in 1983 stood at almost 1,000 new dwelling units per year as shown in Table 4 below . This was substantially higher than any other local authority in New Zealand. 1

TABLE 4: NEW HOUSEHOLD UNITS (HOUSE AND FLATS) 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 I Jan-June 995 961 1051 778 681 July-Dec 761 1095 1348 750 859 ------1756 2056 2399 1 528 1540 I 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Jan-June 505 594 587 595 376 July-Dec 655 606 707 357 532 I ------1160 1200 1294 952 908 (Source: Manukau City Council Building Permit Records) I I I CITY OF MANUKAU 4 FIRST REVIEW I I PART 2 THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS I

2 With an anticipated population increase of about 4,000 persons per year( ) and a likely density of about 40 persons per ha in new developments, the rate of I consumption of vacant residential land would amount to approximately 1 00 ha per year (rising to around 160 ha per year towards the end of the planning period).

3 I As there are approximately 1850 ha of uninhabited vacant residential land( ) there is sufficient land zoned throughout the City to provide for further urban development until well beyond 1 984.

I Planning for the 1980s is clearly fraught with uncertainty and there are bound to be many changes in the land development and building industries. The scheme is framed to provide certain flexibility, and urban growth policies should ensure adequate opportunity and reasonable choice of location for new development in I re lation to demand as it occurs.

I 2.7 ENERGY CONSERVATION AND LAND USE

The influence of the motor car and the reliance on a high level of personal mobility has had a marked effect on the present land use pattern of the City . I What effect the present economic and social changes - particularly the energy situation - which are occurring will have on the motor car and consequently on land use patterns is uncertain . The scheme reflects the approa ch that c hanges I can be expected to occur but that rather than relying on predictions as to what new trends will predominate, emphasis has been placed on providing some flexibi lity to accommodate change as it occurs. It is recognised, for example, that any effects on energy conservation, resulting from a major redirection of land use I policies, will only be realised in a very long term. Emphasis is placed in this scheme on measures that will provide the opportunity for the community to adapt to the energy situation if some of the more likely trends do emerge. The I following provisions have been included in the schem e: • Provisions of further employment opportunities both c loser to and at home.

• Provision of new residential areas closer to existing centres and some I opportunity for further development of existing residential areas. I • Development of neighbourhood faci lities as a focus for the community. • Provision for pedestrian way and cycle routes to be developed in new areas.

• Development of a continuous and direct road link that will facil itate improved I public transport between Manukau City Centre and the Manukau Central industrial area, and the existing and future residentia l areas extending northeast I to Howock. • Provision of services and other facilities in accordance with existing and likely future patterns of travel and activity.

I 2.8 RURAL LAND USE

Two-thirds of the area of the City is and will remain in rural land use and I production from land used for farming continues to be significant. I

I (') See Table 2 3 ( ) Febru ary 1984 I CITY OF MANUKAU 5 FIRST REVIEW I I PART 2 THE CITY : PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS I

Less than one thousand people work full-time on farms in the City but many rural dwellers are part-time farmers who are also employed in the urban area. Another characteristic of rural land use in the district which is attributable to urban I influence is the number of landowners who do not work full-time on their properties. I During the last few years the decline in stock numbers has slowed down. Considered in terms of relative livestock units, beef cattle were 36% of the total livestock in 1 979, dairy cattle 34% and sheep 30%. Fluctuations in the relative importance of beef and sheep over the decade 1970/ 1 980 have reflected market I trends and government incentives. The slow decline in the importance of dairying has resulted from urban development onto dairy farms. While the traditional agricultural economy has been static, some traditional farms have diversified with the planting of a wider range of crops. Although new market gardens, nurseries, I orchards and other horticultural uses have been established in rural parts of the City, the total area in horticultural use has fluctuated as urban uses have replaced many units, especially in Mangere. Other intensive types of farming I include the training of racehorses and poultry farming at Takanini .

The South 's extensive soils of high value for food production extend into the district. The quality of the soils in parts of the district and the I proximity of a large market and the international airport combine to give the area potential for the growing of a variety of crops. Trends towards diversification and the requirements of Section 3 ( 1) (d) of the Act to protect land from urban development are recognised in the scheme. I

Soils of high quality have been carefully analysed and mapped. Wherever practicable, such lands will be preserved for horticultural purposes except in those situations where the economics of urban development and servicing insist I otherwise. I 2.9 FUTURE URBAN GROWTH

2.9.1 The southern sector of the Auckland region is favourably placed and serviced for 4 I continuing urban development. The "Costs of Growth" study( ) stated that -

"For economic, social and other considerations, the current momentum of urbanisation in the southern sector should not be hindered . Certain locational I advantages exist, such as zoned land, bulk services and good transportation links, and the region as a whole should capitalise on these and other previous investments. The distribution of scarce resources should be equitable while taking advantage of past patterns of investment and thus the southern sector I may offer solutions both on grounds of economics and balanced development.''

The majority of the area with growth potential in this southern sector lies within I Manukau City . The City contains two major industrial concentrations (at Manukau Central and Greenmount) , a rapidly-developing sub-regional commercial centre at M anukau City Centre, the International Airport at Mangere, and I furthermore is traversed by national and regional transport routes (the Southern Motorway and the main truck ra ilway line). Substantial regional capital investment has been committed to further development of existing southern urban centres and of the areas between them. There is still considerable capacity I to accommodate growth in Manukau with those services already constructed and commiteed over the next 5- 1 0 year period in existing urban and future development zones without substantial extensions required. I I I') " Auckland : The Costs of Growth", Auckland Region Joint Study Report, September 1977. I CI TY OF MANUKAU 6 FIRST REVIEW I I PART 2 THE CITY: PRESENT AND FUTURE TREND S I I 2.10 LAND PRESENTLY ZONED FOR URBAN USES 2.10.1 Residential within the urban area 5 Out of a total of 1 850 ha of vacant residential land( ) in the City, there are 165 I ha in Mangere, 330 ha in Otara, 480 ha in Pakuranga and 875 ha in Manurewa. Mangere There is considerable potential for infill development on large sections currently used for market gardening, although it is likely that the existing uses will remain I in operation for some time. Some of the land near the airport is likely to be used for motels and some non-residential uses. I Otara There are limited opportunities for increased density of development in the fully- developed areas of Otara. In the Fl at Bush - Redoubt Road area the greater part of available land is primarily suited for medium-cost housing, with little I uncommitted land available for lower-cost developments. In the recent ly zoned area of no subdivision or development has taken place. Development I proposals for Flat Bush are outlined in Part 3. Pakuranga Severa l large areas remain undeveloped capable of providing both medium and low cost housing developments such as Pi geon Mountain, Hi ghland Park and I . Some infill development is possible in old er parts of Pakuranga and the areas adjacent to Howick Borough .

Manurewa I Considerable areas of recently zoned land remain available for development, such as Wattle farm , and Manurewa West (Clendon Park) , as well as areas which have been slow to develop such as Woodside, Wire Village, Sykes Road and Conifer Grove. In the older central parts of Manurewa there exists a I potential for both infill and redevelopment to higher densities. Manurewa has the abiliy to provide for a wide range of housing types. Detailed development proposals I for the Clendon Park area are discussed in Part 3 . 2.10.2 Industrial There are substantial areas (approximately 900 ha) of land zoned for industry still undeveloped, particularly in Manukau Central and Greenmount, even though a I proportion of this is committed for the future expansion of existing organisations. There are an additional 240 ha of land zoned for quarry purposes in Manukau Central, the majority of which is likely to ultimately become available for industrial purposes. Within residentia l areas where employment opportunities are I scarce there are also sites which could accommodate ca refully controlled, limited industrial developments (r ef er Part 1 6 Employment Zone) . I 2.10.3 Commercial There are approximately 1 80 ha of land zoned for commercial purposes within the City. Apart from the land devoted to the four main tiers of commercial activity, significant areas of land have been zoned for special commercial I purposes (service stations and licensed facilities) and mixed use commercial service zones (Commercial Five and Six) hav e been provided on the periphery of selected commercial centres . It is these peripheral zones which make up the bulk I of the 80 ha of vacant land zoned for commercial purposes in the City. I I 5 ( ) Vacant Land Survey (February 1984) -M anukau City Council Pl anning Department. I CITY OF MANU KAU 7 FIRST REVIEW I I PART 2 THE CITY PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS I 2.10.4 Low Density Residential There are some further opportunities to develop additional sections for low density residential use in the areas already zoned Residential 7 along the ridgelines along I Point View Drive and along Redoubt and Mill Roads. The principle of using these ridgelines for low density development could be applied to al l the ridges to the east of Flat Bush. However, the ultimate potential may be limited by problems of ground I instability.

2.10.5 Coastal Settlements and Rural Living The expansion of the residential settlements in the rural areas, namely I Beach lands - M araetai, Whitford, Clevedon, Kawakawa Bay and is limited since these settlements will not have water and sewerage reticulation . The scheme provides sufficient vacant land in the Residential 5 zone to cater for development during the next 20 years at the same rate as in recent years. I

As well as these rural settlements, li ving in a rural environment is catered for by the existing subdivision pattern in the rural zones which has sufficient blocks not I yet used for residential purposes to provide adequate opportunity for more larg e- lot resid ential use in association w ith part-time farming.

Any future demand for other types of rural living not provided for in this review I will be examined at the appropriate time in relation to the objectives and poli c ie applicable to the rural area. I I I I I I I I I I I I CITY OF MANUKAU 8 FIRST RE VIEW I