Wise Before the Event: 20/25 Years

Wise before the event

20/25 YEARS SCIENTIFICCOUNCIL FOR GOVERNMENTPOLICY Wise before the event Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR) 2, Plein 1813 P.O. Box 20004 2500 EA The Hague The Netherlands Phone +3170 3564600 Fax +3170 3564685 E-mail [email protected] Internet http://www.wrr.nl

The volume 'Wise before the event' was composed by an editorial board, consisting of the following members of the Scientific Council for Government Policy and its scientific staff: prof.dr. H.P.M. Adriaansens, J.C.F. Blea, J.P.H. Donner, dr. P. den Hoed, H. van Kempen, dr. S.J.Langeweg. Ms. Van Kempen also compiled the register of think tanks and the other surveys.

Studio Daniels in The Hague took care of the graphic design. The volume was printed by Opmeer Drukkerij bv in The Hague. Technical advice was provided by F.W. van Dijk (RVD). Translated into English by J.W. Arriens and J. Ross. Wise b+re the event

A To rule and to foresee

Distance and nearness - H.PM. Adnaansens Not by policy alone - G.]. Kronjee and R. Rabbinge

Exploring uncharted territory - H.C. van Latesteijn and1.J Schoonenboom

Expertise in development - P. den Hoed

B Surveys

In search of the impossible - Think tanks throughout the world

Problem-oriented and contextual - Literature on think tanks 25 years WRR - Publications Functions and composition of the council and bureau Establishment act WRR 066~laUI6z do peeJ ap uee qaOZaqqlJM JEDq llq XlqB.9 U@UIUO~WUIOI(IPMlIA EpYIV 'M'Jp'p~dJaUIUWA-MUM INTRODUCTION

Scientific advice and planning for government policy evoke different associations today than twenty-five years ago. The founding of the Provisional Scientific Council for Government Policy was born of the idea that governments had an insufficient insight into the opportunities and threats posed by the future, and that a scientific approach would improve that insight. Scientifically based information, it was felt, could protect politicians from errors and enable them to make choices between alternative future scenarios. In a time when flexibility, decisiveness and the 'primacy of politics' have acquired a positive note, however, a scientific approach to policy has in many eyes become entangled in the inertia ofwhich much policy is accused. The radical reform of the advisory structure surrounding the government is indubitably also a reflection of this viewpoint.

This is only one side of the reality,-however.The other side is the almost insatiable need on the part of modern governments for information, research and advice. No policy is formulated without the help of thick piles of reports, recommendations, studies and impact reports: were this not the case, the courts could conclude that a policy was insufficiently solidly based or well researched. The number of advisory bodies may well have been cut drastically, but the number ofbroad social debates, consultations, enquiry procedures, referenda and other forms of 'interactive administration' is increasing by leaps and bounds.

This apparently conflicting development arises from the paradoxes with which modern government is confronted. Initially the need for planning, exploration and analysis of social trends was a reaction to an overly strong 'primacy of politics' within a relatively closed national economy and society. This created the need for research, planning and exploration of relationships in order to enable policy to be oriented and if necessary imbued with discipline. The disappearance of these closed economies, and of the 'primacy of politics' within them, has however not led to a decline in the need for advice, knowledge and insights. The key focus today is less and less on a framework and orientation for policy, and more and more on obtaining a lead in the international policy race and strengthening the supporting base for policy aimed at winning that race. In this sense, a government's need for information is almost inversely proportional to the freedom of that same government to make use of it.

This is the paradox within which the Scientific Council for Government Policy operates. The literature pigeonholes the Council in the category of WISE BEFORE THE EVENT

'think tanks' or 'policy research institutes' which have arisen in almost all Western countries since the 1960s. The trend was initiated by calls in 1966 by a committee of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in which renowned scientists such as Raymond Aron, Briggs, Dahrendorf, Lazersfeld, Oppenheimer, Massart and Hofstee sat. They concluded that there was a gap in the political support system in the area of long-term thinking, and called on governments to do something about this. One way of doing this was to create independent institutions at the interface of politics and the academic world. The formation of the Provisional Scientific Council for Government Policy in 1972 fits into this context and can be seen as a response by the Dutch government to the identified need.

Form and function Generally, 'policy research institutes' show correspondences in terms of aims and functions, but they can differ in terms of their form and position in the social system. The Dutch variant, the WRR,has been given the form ofa public-law research, planning and advisory institute within the government apparatus, with the legislator emphasising the independent status of the Council and the interdisciplinary nature of the envisaged activities. Fears of a dependence on both the scientific world and the individual government departments led to a high degree of independence of operation, under the responsibility of the Prime Minister/Minister of General Affairs. The purpose of the Council was to offer a counterweight to both technocracy and the power of the ministries. Fears of a lack of balance in content and discipline led to the stipulation that the reports must come from the Council as a whole. All these factors together resulted in a subtle balance of substantive freedom and organisational discipline. The WRR is part of the government apparatus, but is also bound to keep that same government at a distance; the Council is free and independent, but is publicly accountable for its activities through its reports; the WRR is independent, but the government can change its composition completely once every five years.

In terms of function, the WRR clearly meets the wishes of the OECD committee referred to above: it seeks to make a contribution through scientific means to creating an insight into the development of the economic, technological and social conditions under which policy has to operate; to examine the repercussions of those developments on that policy; and to indicate the possible courses of action resulting from that INTRODUCTION

interaction. In common with virtually every other country, the practice of policy research and future studies has undergone a shift in the Netherlands. This applies not only to the methods used, but also to the nature and function of such research.

Based on the underlying idea of a cogent, scientific reality of facts and correlations, the initial aim was to undertake general explorations which would both encompass and predict all relevant social trends. This approach was quickly replaced by attempts to sketch alternative developmental possibilities, as the Interfutures report from the OECD itself also did. This revised approach also determined the next step, towards explorations of alternatives in a limited policy domain: thematic future surveys. This is no more than a logical development: as soon as the idea of general, comprehensive and objectively cogent developments is abandoned and replaced by explorations of potential scenarios, the developments in a limited domain can also be studied as possibilities without it being necessary to elaborate a general framework first.

Future for the present The shift described above also led to a change in the function of exploratory surveys. As the future comes to be seen less as an inevitable and scientifically determinable continuation of trends in the past and present, a survey of the future acquires more the function of a deepening of today's insights. It can be compared to a period of residence abroad, which sharpens one's insight into one's own, familiar society. A broadening of the function of think tanks is a corollary of this development. In addition to exploring future trends, that function now also involves unravelling contemporary normative views, prejudices, facts and the cogent nature of paradigms and concepts within which those facts are encapsulated. It is very common to see images, metaphors, concepts or principles (e.g. 'ecoscope', 'supporting base', or the unexpressed choice for the present as a reference point when assessing future developments) forcing themselves into the perception of developments and the ability of policy to respond to those developments. The importance of policy research and future surveys then no longer lies in identifying the boundaries of policy, but in pushing back those boundaries and increasing the number of alternatives by placing question-marks alongside the 'obvious'. And this is often the most fruitful contribution ofresearch to policy, albeit simultaneously the most thank- less. It may be that this function is particularly important in a democracy, in which the need for political support and democratic control also har- WISE BEFORE THE EVENT

20/25 yCLIf3 WRR

bours the danger of the formation of political taboos, with no-one wishing to 'bell the cat'.

The foregoing does not mean that new 'truths' or methods replace the original ones. The WRR has published both reports such as Groundfor choices, in which model-based extrapolation was used to formulate a framework for land-based agriculture, and Sustainable risk;, which demonstrates that such methods when applied to the environment and nature lead to false certainties, because a fixed content is suggested for what are in reality political concepts, such as 'ecoscope' - i.e. the 'carrying capacity' of the environment. In the Reports to the Government series, recent years have seen publication of Interest and Policy ('Belang en beleid') and From Sharing to Earning ('Van verdelen naar verdienen') which are explicitly situated within existing policy paradigms, but also A Working Perspective ('Een werkend perspectief') and Social Dichotomy in Perspective ('Tweedeling in perspectief) which question the very basis of those same paradigms.

The shifts referred to above do not therefore mean that no attention is now given to the significance of present-day developments for future policy. What they do mean is that, in addition to trying to ascertain the consequences of the present for the future, an attempt is more often made to gain an insight into the present day from the vantage point of possible future scenarios.

In the light of this shift, the function of the reports can also be broadened. As long as information, planning and future exploration are intended primarily to support future policy, they will have to precede the formulation of that policy. A report which appears later is then a prime example of being 'wise after the event'. If on the other hand research, exploration and advice help to create a different perspective and offer a better view of the strengths and weaknesses ofpresent-day policy, there is less reason to fear that 'events are leaving the advice behind', as the Member of Parliament Schutte claimed in the debate of the General Affairs budget in 1995. In fact, as Prime Minister Wim Kok replied at the time, themes such as domestic administration, the tasks of the government or the future of the social security system do not disappear from the political agenda within a few short months. Precisely the persistent importance of such topics can explain why reports on those subjects 'always seem to appear slightly too late', to use the Prime Minister's words. The feeling of 'I should have INTRODUCTION

known that earlier' can make what should be and in reality is being 'wise before the event' feel like being 'wise after the event'.

Structure of this collection This collection contains essays on the function and functioning of the WRR and comparable institutions. The reason for compiling it is that it is a quarter of a century since the formation of the Provisional Council. Just under five years later the WRR Establishment Act came into force. It can therefore be said that the WRR has existed for twenty-five years in a functional sense and for twenty years in a formal sense. This publication is however not intended as a retrospective. It is a thematic study concerned with the functions of institutions such as the WRR and attempts to fill in gaps in the picture of the functioning of such institutions. With this in mind it is divided into two parts: the view from the inside, and the facts as they appear from the added documentation.

The first section approaches the functioning of institutions such as the WRR from four angles. The first contribution (Adriaansens, 'Distance and nearness') emphasises the reciprocity of science and policy. The second article (Kronjee and Rabbinge, 'Not by policy alone') indicates that the work carried out for Council reports, in addition to policy-specific effects, can also lead to an expansion of the scientific perspective and to new problem definitions for scientific study. The third article (Van Latesteijn and Schoonenboom, 'Exploring uncharted territory') systematises the different methods of futures research. Finally, the fourth article (Den Hoed, 'Expertise in development') focuses once again on the relationship between distance and proximity; from a historical perspective, institutions such as the WRR are situated between what can be called 'universities without students' and 'ministerial staff departments without ministerial duties'.

The second section has a documentary nature. In 'In search of the irnpos- sible' a systematic overview is presented of policy-oriented think tanks throughout the world. This is followed by an overview of the literature on think tanks in general and about the WRR in particular. Finally, there is a summary of the w~~publicationsof the past twenty-five years, in which the titles of the Reports to the Government, each supplemented by brief notes, are categorised by focus area. Each summary is preceded by a brief analysis.

Minister-president mr. B.W. Bierheuvel bij de installatie van devoorlopige WRR op 20 novemberrgp, in devergadenaal van de Eerrte Kamer Pmf. dr. J. Kremers, eente voorzittervan de wan, bij de installatie van de Vwrlopige wan op lonovember 1972 A TO RULE AND TO FORESEE

DISTANCEAND NEARNESS H.P.M.Adriaansens

PROMETHEUS'S FIRE

In one of his dialogues, Plato tells the story of the brothers Prometheus and Epimetheus. The Gods had given them the task of sharing an arsenal of qualities and attributes among all the creatures of the Earth. Epimetheus whose name indicates that he was good at looking around took great pleasure in this project and thought he could manage it all on his own. In his ingenuity he created an elegant balance. Qualities such as strength, speed, camouflage, access to weapons, the power of flight, the ability to swim, fertility: he carefully shared all these among the denizens of the ani- mal kingdom. Animals excelling in power he made slower. Well-camou- flaged animals managed with less strength and speed, and those who were particularly fertile remained vulnerable. In all his enthusiasm he had, however, forgotten one crucial factor: he had used up his stock of qualities and attributes without realising that Man had yet to make his entrance on the worldstage. This meant that Man had nothing to help him stake his place in the scheme of things. From that moment on Prometheus -whose name indicates that he was not just able to look around but above all 'ahead' - now had the task of solving the problems. He refused to abandon the idea that the human race would henceforth get the worst of the deal, and so he devised a trick. From Pallas Athene and Hephaistos he stole Fire, the symbol of art and technology. With this he enabled Humanity to mould Nature to its will, or - in other words - to make a culture out of it. Man would never really feel truly at home in Nature, for Epimetheus' error could never be wholly undone.

To rule, so says the proverb, is to foresee the future and is thus a Prome- thean activity. Admittedly: no government will achieve its ends just by predicting future events, but the daily administrative routine will certainly find it useful to make allowances for likely eventualities. In almost all cul- tures and historical eras, the rulers have found the need to form some idea of the future. The agencies responsible for providing them with such a picture differed from culture to culture, both in form and content as well in their methods. The very foundation of Western 'policyculture' was the Delphic Oracle consulted by rulers and states alike. Its role was by no means insignificant. Without the benefit of its utterances the Mediterra- nean world would have looked completely different now both politically and culturally. WISE BEPORE THE EVENT

20/15 ye515 WRR

The way the Oracle reached its conclusions was curious. The confused utterances of the Pythia - a priestess in a state of trance -were ingeniously interpreted by the prophets in the direction of the original question and then given to the inquirer in the form of an opinion. In modern society the need for advice has certainly not declined, but the methods used have changed radically. Since then it has become normal practice to use scientific methods when forecasting future trends -science as today's version of Prometheus' fire. Interest in scientifically sound advice has risen signifi- cantly, in both the public and the private sectors. In any case, scientific policy-research has grown into an impressive industry. Scores of advisors, advisory bodies and consultants share a common cause in supplying material from which the institutions responsible 'can make policy', i.e. reach into the future. Indeed, most of these bodies and organisations also have a scientific background. The WRR is one such body and a special one, as will be seen below.

25 YEARS IN RETROSPECT (1): THE DEMANDE SIDE

By way of extension to the Framework Act on advisory bodies of 1996, the explanatory memorandum to the 1997 General Affairs budget defines the Council's position in more detail. There, in particular, a distinction was drawn between the WRR'S tasks and functions and those of the 'ordinary' advisory boards. The Government argues that 'the Council (has) a far wider remit than to advise on "generally binding regulations or policy to be implemented by the State". Its task involves identifying and studying social trends from the viewpoint as to whether these trends should lead to more closely formulated government policy'. What marks it out from many other bodies that create ideas for policy-makers is that the Council draws attention to the wider context in which policy is set. It must, above all, focus on preliminary policy issues: should something become policy or not, judging from experiences in other countries, the direction of social trends and the available policy options? In consequence, the Council's policy advice is more than purely instrumental. More than just advising on the implementation of previously chosen objectives, the policy objectives themselves form part of the advisory process. Because of this, the Council's remit is not just instrumental but also conceptual and problem- defining by nature.

The Government also sees the Council's characteristic role as being "that the Council does not concentrate on a specific area of policy, but deals with A TO RULE AND TO FORESEE

topics, that are 'supra-sectoral' and long-term in their orientation." It also adds that the end-products of the WRR'S work are called 'reports' for a very good reason, and not 'advice'. Finally, the Government restates its view that the WRR'S independent status is essential for the proper discharge of its duties. Thus the term 'independence' not only means constitutionally independent the WRR draws up its own programme even if it does submit it to the Council of Ministers - but academically and professionally independent as well.

The WRR translates, analyses and explores social and policy issues using scientific methods. In this respect, one may compare its work with that of other institutions operating at the interface of science and policy, e.g. the Netherlands Central Planning Office (CPB),the Social and Cultural Plan- ning Office (SCP),the National Spatial Planning Agency (RPD)and the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM). But the WRR has a broader remit; it goes one step further and a step backwards as well. One step 'backwards', because the WRR is expected to deal with preliminary policy issues; and one step forwards, as the Council must provide suggestions for policies and solutions -whether or not at the Cabinet's request - for the issues it (the WRR) has raised. On these last points the WRR differs from the other institutions that have already been mentioned: it not only contributes indirectly to the public debate but directly and formally as well. When the WRR was set up, this aspect of its affairs led to a debate between the Cabinet and Parliament. In practice, however, it has seldom led to any problems. The importance of this role is further underlined by the fact that - under the terms of the Act of Establishment - the Cabinet is required to give a public reaction to policy suggestions of this kind within a specified time (in practice usually about three months or so).

The orientation towards preliminary policy issues, the wider context of policy, the longer term, the supra-sectoral, conceptualisation and the definition of problems, constitutional and professional independence, and the assignment to outline the contours and possible options of future policies: all these elements define the WRR'S current image and ensure that it -as covered by the law - can regularly take part in the forum of public debate.

It is interesting to see if and how far the 1997 Government's reasons for continuing the Council's independence - as part of the review of the WISE BEPORE THE EVENT

advisory structure - are consistent with the basic reasons for setting up the Council 25 years ago. What immediately stands out is the continuity. Reporting and focusing on important long-term trends, as well as 'contributing to the long-term implementation of an integrated policy', were, then as now, the Council's main roles. It was also given a specific, albeit more co-ordinating task in the areas of planning and future studies, both inside and outside government circles. So none of this was much different. In the run-up to the creation of the WRR, the De Wolff Commission for Preparatory Studies into the Future Structure of Society actually went one step further. In 1970 it suggested that the WRR (which the Commission thought should be called the 'Raad voor de Planning' (Planning Council) "(should) provide a comprehensive insight into the possible long-term trends in society as a whole and in specific areas as part of a scientific preparation of policy for the government as a whole." That policy would also benefit from a list of "alternative choices for developing specific policies in the main areas of government concern." The areas it had to examine were: international relations, the promotion and distribution of prosperity, spatial planning, science and technology and social and cultural welfare (cf. report by the Commission for Preparatory Studies into the Future Structure of Society, 1970: II). In 1971 the Van Veen Interdepart- mental Task-Sharing and Co-ordination Commission was also quite forth- right in its own views on the matter. It suggested giving the WRR the task of drawing up a vision of the future of Dutch society and also to ask the Council to devise coherent policies. Fortunately not all politicians shared the claims and expectations contained within these statements. When the Upper House was dealing with the WRR Act of Establishment (1976), Mr. Den Uyl, the then Prime Minister, made his views quite plain on the unsuitability of such a suggestion:

This task is (...) not intended for the WRR The Council provides information and indicates areas of policy. It is for the Cabinet to prepare a coherent policy and not the WRR In my opinion, anyone who asks the WRR to do this is making a great mistake. I must admit that lo years ago, one could also detect this kind of thinking here and there in the De Wolff Commission's recommendations, as if one could expect academics, senior officials or highly respected experts to provide some kind of draft plan for an integrated policy. In my view, that was a misunderstanding of the 'social harmony' docmine. In a certain sense it was also a product of the hubris, which was more common in the academic circles of the

1950s and 1960s than today - fortunately. The WRR produces material in the A TO RULE AND TO FORESEE

form of systematised and documented knowledge, with the utmost objectivity, but the choice one makes from such material ispolitical.

The good thing about this debate was that Mr. Den Uyl drew a distinction between two separate attitudes towards the relationship of science and policy, the technocratic and the instrumentalist approach. He linked the technocratic approach to the 1950s 'social harmony' doctrine, in which the objective status of science was the measure of all things. The instrumentalist approach was typical ofi97os political thinhng, where not only was the primacy of the political choice beyond dispute, but the claims of science as well were still to be treated with the necessary scepticism. We shall return to this topic in the section "Between Sein and Sollen".

The Council's intended function has, it may be noted, taken root not just in Dutch political and administrative life. In the second half of this century, this also happened in neighbouring countries. A 1966 OECD publication on socio-scientific policy planning played an important part in this process. Initially, policy planning was restricted in other countries as well to specific areas of government responsibility - e.g. to prepare urban, social-economic, education and health-care policies -but this role has been gradually expanded to focus on general issues of government policy. That does not mean, however, that a WRR was set up everywhere during the past 25 years. In one country, for instance, a Minister of Future Studies or a Prime Minister's general cabinet carries out the Council's work. In others its role is played by a network or association of futurologists, by an Academic Council, an Academy of Sciences or by a private think-tank that tries to find its way through changing political majorities. Naturally, the forms these functions take elsewhere are not divorced from the differing administrative traditions in those countries. The Netherlands has (a) the tradition of social participation in collective decision-making processes - e.g. by university professors who sit on advisory councils -and (b) the tradition of administrative openness and control of government accountability.

The demand for academic support for government policy (Van Maarse- veen, 1969; Donner, 1969) grew among official circles when it was realised that policy-issues were too complex for the conventional administrative wisdom. Some people felt these were even counter-productive and that they caused delay in social reforms. The policy-makers also had high hopes of the effectiveness of the 'new' social sciences. Many graduates WISE BEPORE THE EVENT

20/25 ycam WRR

from these disciplines had entered government service and had helped introduce those disciplines into government policy. In their view, the successful use of natural sciences in solving health and technical problems could be extended to solving social problems. Many people already saw economic science as a way of achieving this, but a successful solution to the problems of Man and Society still required a great deal of organised intellectual ingenuity (as Huizinga, 1926, had characterised this work). The social sciences still lacked what the technical sciences had long known, i.e. the co-existence of research and development practices; this would have to be developed without delay. The R and D Corporation, or RAND, exempli- fied this system of operation.

If one now compares the two explanatory memoranda from 1972 and 1997, it is mainly the sense of continuity that catches the attention. This lies mainly in the recognition that the daily pursuit of policy does not automatically provide a clear picture of the demands of the future, and that for this reason a scientifically-orientedinstitute - unconnectedwithofficialpolicy - must be able to help in defining problems and advising policy-makers. Nor do the memoranda differ appreciably on how such a body should work. At most, during the political debate on the Act of Establishment 25 years ago, there was an undue emphasis on orchestrating policy in line with more or less stated objectives or on supplying alternative scenarios, from which the political system could 'fashion' society according to its own assumptions. Since then the 'social shaping' theory has lost ground, both in politics and in science; one result of its decline is that politics has left more room for the preliminary policy issues and for reassessing definitions of problems - definitions which may now be less appropriate. It is also not surprising that this shift coincides with the shift from a policy of advancing the welfare state to one of reassessing it.

The demand by policy-making bodies for scientific advice is not an isolated phenomenon. Parallel to this ran the ever-growing supply of (socio-)scientific research landing on the government's doorstep from academic and scientific institutions such as the universities and the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW). What is striking in this context is a concerted action by the rapidly-expanding social sciences profession to get more closely involved with official government policy. Fuelled with the optimism of the newcomer, the social sciences developed a strong desire to A TO RULE AND TO FORESEE

enhance government policy through the fruits of their research. Today this fact may have largely vanished from the collective memory; nevertheless these government commissions might not have been created at all had not the social-scientists argued so forcefully for their foundation. Initially, i.e. at the start of the sixties, they were set up under the banner ofco-ordination of the socio-scientific government-policy research (Jolles, 1964). At the urging of the KNAW Social Sciences Council, the Government/Socio- Scientific Council Contact Committee was created. This committee tried to achieve the optimal co-ordination of all social-science research of relevance to government policy. However, a working party from this contact committee went much further: on top of this advantageous yet fairly innocent need for co-ordination, it placed the need for "a look at the broad lines of social development, which creates a need to see these lines of development in their totality and mutual interrelatedness" (p. 2). The Social Science Council (SWR)allowed itself the freedom to comment on the ambitious product of its own worlung group. That commentary (by the then Chairman Hofstee) identified three distinct levels of socio-scientific policy research.

The primary, most general level contained the basic principles of that policy. The secondary, more specific level involved research on relevant areas of policy - e.g. education, international relations, socio-economic issues - as focused on by the primary-level results. The tertiary level involved the applied research for the actual implementation of policy. The SWR felt that attention had focused too long and too narrowly on this third and final level, and considered it important precisely in a period of rapid change to pay more attention to the first two -more conceptual - levels. Naturally, it was even more essential to carry out research at these lower levels in a highly independent environment. The SWR phrased it in the words of its Chairman: "If policy-makers are to derive any benefit from research intended to assist the formation of government policies slanted to present and future trends, the researchers must be able to produce new ideas, to develop unexpected points of view, and they have to pursue their work free from the influence of any incidental political power-relationships of the day" (p. IS). Of course, these independent researchers would need to have the requisite 'feel' for policy matters. All this led the SWR to underline the fact that institutes and organisations, charged with carrying out relevant policy research at these levels, should under no circumstances come under the official umbrella of government. Better would be for just the universities and the KNAW to take the lead in this matter. The SWR WI SH BEFORE THE EVEN T

20/2 5 years WRR

does however point out that one may justifiably use the term `fundamental research' to denote research at primary level (pp . 24-25)•

It might appear from this brief hi story that policy -makers were not alone in providing the initiative for establishing the WRR. Academic circles also heartily supported the idea of a `reflective ' advisory body of this type, provided that (a) it could addres s the prelimin ary policy issues freely and independently, (b) positioning under the wings of government would be less desirable, and (c) the xrrAw had a say in appointing council member s. The SWR did not get its way on the se last two points, but without its heavy emphasis on the new body 's academic independence , the WRR might well have looked quite different .

~4 The involvement of the soci al science s in official policy has continued in the years since then. If the sixties c ould be described as an ini tial exploratory phase in the relationship between social and other sciences and government policy, the seventies and eighties could be called the `executive' pha se. At that time the social sciences split into a whole range of different fields of expertise , e.g. educational and environmental studies, and they did this partly with one eye on what was happening at government level . That also meant that there may have been even more emphasis in policy research on the implementation s ide than already noted by the swx. It is therefore al so not surprising that the major shifts in direction and policy principles came more from the poli cy-makers themselves than from academic research. In that respect academia seems more to follow in the wake of policy (or to react to it) than actually to take the lead .

Possibly through its ultimate positioning under the wing s of the Ministry of General Affairs, the Coun cil has regularly succeeded in abstracting itself from that predominantly reactive climate ; paradoxically its status is the very reason it felt the need to prove its indep endence from official poli cy. One w ay of doing this is to concentrate more onfuture policy than on the here and now. If only for this rea son the WRR has a stronger urge to `stay one step ahead of the game' than the univer sities. The Act of Est ablish- ment not only protected the WRR's academic independence but also en- sured that its voice was heard and answered. This made it harder for policy-makers to (publi cly) ignore its results and opinion s, a fate that befalls many a report or opinion from the world of academi a. Whether this has contributed to the fact that university research institutes have placed themselves in recent years past more explicitly under the wings of govern - A TO RULE A ND TO FORESE E

ment departments is hard to say ; this is no more than an impre ssion . One may however speculate - with some concern - about the factors that have been responsible for the fact that academic re search institutes and agencies have strayed so little from the beaten track .

Meanwhile the number of institutions offering their service s has risen dramatically, in both the public and private sector s. Apart from the many advisory coun cils and bureaus set up by the government, many private institutes, e.g. Research voor Beleid, KPMG , Berenschot, Twijn stra & Gudde, etc., now carry out analyses for the government. Moreover, each day sees the arrival of new small- scale enterprises staffed by ex -civil servants. Advi sory bodie s such as the SER have been lo sing their role as `super-coordinator' of employers associations and trade union s and instead become more independently-based advi sory bodies . Policy-research institutes have also emerged on the sidelines of the universities. Finally, `line officers' work in proje cts along with other colleagues, they more frequent - ly have an academic b ackground (the profes sionalisation of original `line functions') and they sometimes maintain direct links with re searchers on the outside (thu s bypassing their own internal departments). All in all , an industry ha s emerged with a turnover of sever al billion guilder s.

Some people see within this process the contours of a new profe ssional class: a group of people profe ssionally set on thinking through and adapting social rules and relationships while using the methodology of science in their work . Inside this community , a per son may at one time dr aft reports, and then be a con sumer and intere sted reader, and another time be an observer or mediator in di sputes about analyses and re commendations . In the fifties and the earl y sixties there were still only a few score policy advisors, spread throughout a limited number of offices in th e Department of Economic Affair s, the Department of So cial Affairs (which at that time formed a single ministry together with Health) , Housing and Spatial Planning, and Education and Science. At that time there wa s also no way of foreseeing the growth of the policy planning indus try, let alone the wide range of experts now working in this field . Today this has long since involved not just lawyers, macro -economists and statisticians but also psychologi sts, macro -sociologists, social-geographers, labour-economists, administrative experts , political scientists, educationalists, policy- historians , philosopher s, lingui sts, and communic ations experts as well. WI SE B EFO R E T H E E V E N T

20/x 5 years WRR

BETWEE N SEIN (WHAT I5) AND SOLLEN (WHAT OUGHT) : SO M E CO MM E N TS O N T H E I N TE RACTIO N OF FACTS A N D OPI N IO N S

The interface of science and policy has thus become rather crowded over the past few decades. The enthusiastic interrelationship between supply and demand does not however mean that this new branch of indu stry is univer sally popular . Scores of questions, comments and critical remarks have accompanied that process. The government 's need for tidying up the advisory sector cannot be seen in isolation from this. The question that continually recurs i s : how scientific policy planning in fact is or can be . Policy-maker s tend to voice a certain disappointment at what academia i s offering them . Conversely, academics ask themselves fairly regularly if 26 they really should allow themselve s to become quite so explicitly involved with the policy-making process; shouldn't they keep a greater distance , and shouldn't science just return to its main t ask of carrying out ba sic research?

Despite it s formal and profess ional independenc e , the WRR also regularly faces this kind of criticism . Policy-makers still tend to think that WRR reports are either too academic or too politi cal (c£ NRC z8 June 1997, where the Minister of Health , Dr. Els Borst , found the ju st-publi shed Public Health report to be rather academic, whil e in the same newspaper State Secretary Jacob Kohnstamm found the same report too poli tical). The academic institutions had regularly compl ained that WRR reports had crossed the boundarie s of empirical thought, as a result of which the concentration on policy-issues really is - by definition - somewhat un- scientific. In essence this sort ofcriticism refer s to the permanent debate concerning the rela tionship between science and policy. There are whole bookcases of highly theoretical academi c literature on thi s subject , so there is no need to repeat any of thi s material within the confine s of this chapter! An indication will however be provided on the ba sis of the above of the way in which the WRR deals with the i ssue of the relationship between science and policy. It need not be denied here that this tension is easily discernible in the wxx' s daily work and al so lead s to different empha ses inside the Council .

We have already referred to Prime Minister Den Uyl 's comments in the Upper House on the Council's relationship with the political system . Challenged on this issue by Senator Zoutendijk , he contrasted two `maid- A TO RULE AND TO F ORESE E

servant ' models . In the technocratic model, politics was the maid- servant of science and the WRR would then just decide which way society should go. This technocratic solution implies that politics yields its primacy to science . According to this theory, science can supply the be st choice for every circumstance , determine which road society mu st follow, and to this end also supply the best tool s for the job . One could say that political choices no longer apply in thi s case and the end of ideology ha s also truly arrived. Den Uyl found this an example of the 1950s'social harmony ' philosophy, which was so d etested at the time; in this theory he also found the hubris a s was observed in certain academic circles . Of course he did exaggerate, probably pour besoin de la cause. It might well then be that the ambitions of the new social science s were as plain a s day, but the Dutch social sciences could not be accused at that time of either high-priest think - z7 ing or any other form of Comrian po sitivism.

Be that as it may, against this technocratic model of the relationship between science and policy Den Uyl placed a second model . Here science was the maid -servant of politics , who adapts objective s cientifi c knowledge to her own ideological preferences . This instrumentalist philosophy maintains a sharp divi sion between the provision of facts and the independent process of political choice . In this vision, science provides the information; politics is informed on the late st scientific developments, and the political proces s will then wheel out its own set of non-academic (i.e. polit- ico-ideological) standards and choo se a particul ar course of action . With the same facts at hand, a So cial Democrat would choose a different cour se of action from that cho sen by a Liberal or a Christian Democrat . By so heavily empha sising the gap that sep arates the world ofSein ('what is') from the world of Sollen ('what ought') , Den Uyl successfully nipped in the bud any fear of the supposed power of the WRR. However functional Den Uyl's defence wa s at the time, the interaction of facts and opinions - or in classical terms : the relationship between Sein and Sollen - is never - theless more complex than these two models would sugge st, both in theory and in prac tice - and thus in the w Rx's work as well .

The fact that one cannot always maintain such a clear-cut distinction between the worlds of Sein and Sollen could also be seen in the intervention noted above by the Social Science Counc il. By so heavily emphasising primary and secondary level research, namely research that - in principle - puts the given policy -objectives on the agenda , and from then draws conclusions for specific areas of policy, the SWR wanted to make the WI SE BEFORE THE E V E N T

20/2S years WRJZ

new organisation something more th an a humble maid -servant. Even so the question still arises: what can an institute such as the WRR actually contribute at the level of criticising policy- objectives? Where exac tly is the dividing -line between the systematic , scientific view and wishful thinking, between facts and opinions? Is there su ch a border-line anyway, however impenetrable?

The formula tion and criticism of social objectives is, of course, first and foremost a political matter. Yet all the same such activities usually conceal a great deal of explicit and implicit knowledge. The socio-scienrific representation ofsocial processes does not come to a halt with the formulation of social objectives and scientific opinions will nece ssarily play a signifi - 2$ cant part in this pro cess. By way of logical extension, science i s involved in this proces s in a different w ay as well. Scienc e, and th e social sciences in particular, also see the proce ss offormulating objectives from a reflective angle . The social sciences are concerned with examining the way that d ata - both scientific and non -scientific - are harmonised with pro cesses of political choice, as well a s the way the se processes materialise. Whether the current issues are te chnologi cal innovation, raising the level of knowledge, publi c health , industrial policy, agricultural policy or environmental technology, incorporating such knowledge into the political-choice processes creates a social-scientific challenge par exc ellence.

Now the pe culiar nature of the social sciences make s none of thi s any easier. Naturally, these sciences are ba sically no different from any other science one cares to name. And at the core of each scien ce lies 'the method', namely, `the way by which ' the knowledge i s obtained. The scientific method (or bet ter: the various methods which are regarded a s being scientific) is essentially nothing more than a stylised version of the power of man's imagination. This has two aspects : searching and verifying . As a stylised or structured ver sion of the power of imagin ation, the scientific method offers a framework by which knowledge can be produ ced and veri- fied. Broadly speaking , methodology i s the reflection on these kind s of `search and che ck' procedures. That sounds simple, but it is not ; for the tools used bysocial-scientists in their quest for coherence (from policy- planners to sociologists, from economists to lawyers) do not lie for once and always stored inside the human brain , but are them selves again the product of social development . The ideas , questions and answer s that typify the present-day social -science s are elements of the same historical process that must be studied using these same ideas, questions and A TO RULE AND T O F ORES E E

answers. That applie s a fortiori to scientific research into policy issues. The image used in this context is that of a flowing river sweeping everyon e and everything along with it. To tell the story of this river, we ne ed to h ave a sure foothold somewhere. Without it we remain at one with the elements and gain nothing from it through reflection. That is the role of concepts in science. Concepts are as it were the overh anging br anches, the drifting tree-trunks or the lookout -towers, from which we can with at least some degree ofseparation understand the movements of the river. But one thing is sure: no lookout- tower is so solidly b ased that it can keep on defying the force of the rising waters. History does not recognise any Archimedean principle. For us to tell our stories we need di stance and a sure footing, but that history will overt ake, adjust, colour or even supersede our stories is beyond di spute . The fact alone that the se stories themselves again `make 1zg his tory' stand s as a gu arante e.

A numb er of interesting problems are connected with this. First, there is the problem of objectivity. Without an Archimedean principle would not our knowledge just remain suspended in thin air? Is i t not the case that obj ective knowledge cannot then exist and truth vani shes into relativism? We must content ourselves with the conclusion that all our knowledge is in some sense Standortgebunden, i.e . situational : knowledge inevitably depends on the viewpoint taken. Thus the question ofthe obje ctivity of our knowledge also remains unsolved - in the negative se nse as well. There is far more to say on the obje ctivity o fknowledge; and we may certainly not conclude from the historical and situational connectedness of our knowledge that knowledge is th erefore never true. Laws of economics, sociology, anthropology or social psychology derive their forc e from the very fact that they can be applied in many different hi storical situations. Recognising the historical character of our knowledge thus also implies recogni sing the fact that some kinds ofknowledge are more enduring than others or, if one w ishes, more objective.

The second problem i s the question of how the light-buoys and lookout- towers are po sitioned in the tide of history to obtain the most enduring and appropriate knowledge of humankind and society. For that matter, many viewpoints can provide thi s relevant knowledge . This not only depend s on the qu ality of the viewpoint , but equ ally on the question of which knowl edge we are now really seeking. We need not walk along the seashore to see the lie of the Dutch coastline; better instead to h ire an aero - plane. The view from an aeroplane , however, tells us nothing about the WI SE B EFORE T H E EVE N T

20/25years WR R

fouling of coastal waters or how well the sand-dunes can withstand the sea. Those interested in the story of religiou s and political 'pillarisation'in the Netherlands or the up s and down s of a mother of two young children on welfare i s too far removed when looking from six miles up! That doesn't mean that we alway s have to have our noses right on top o f things. For example, limiting ourselves to participatory observation in chur ch communitie s does not tell the full story of pillari sation' s effects on society. Likewise, the story of tho se on welfare is only one a spect of the topic. So science must continually deal with the balance between distance and nearness, and that balance is always open to another interpretation - depending on what we now really want to know, what sort of knowledge we w ant to obtain , and what we then want to do with it.

The above statement has a twofold message. First and foremo st, it must be clear that the scientific method h as no other role than to support and check the power of the imagin ation. For this purpose, coherent concepts are essential. Sometimes these ideas fit so badly with the subject of research (e .g. they originate from an earlier period of history) that they hinder rather than help the production of any relevant knowledge . At the same time, it must be clear that without concepts the reality of man, culture, society and policy would remain a clo sed book . Thus it is also a question of continually assessing the heuristic value of the concepts used in studying Man and Society, and to keep real ising these ideas are relative in the most literal sense of the word . What thi s really means is that the scientific approach to the Sein contain s much implicit Sollen. The line dividing these two concepts is less clear-cut th an we would re ally like to admit.

In this context we may refer to the connection of many current socio- economic ideas with the socio-cultural situation of the fifties and sixties . That easily leads to a distortion of the reality, and to distortion of the moral judgements on the development of society. In the early 199os, the Council referred to the distortion resulting from the persistent use of the concept of `unemployment' - without taking into account its socio- cultural basis . The result was that everything was done to reduce unemployment, even when this resulted in still fewer people working in our national labour force (e .g. by defining away unemployment through early retirement (vuT), employment disability (wAo) and scores of other measures) . The advice at that time was to base official policy on the labour force participation figures and to bring these `up to scratch' as quickly as possible . The WRR has recently indicated in its Social Dichotomy in A TO RU LE AND TO FORESE E

Perspective report (pp . 35-36) that the traditional way of presenting income statistics could easily lead to incomplete - and sometimes even erroneous - descriptions of the income-trends.

Here too it wa s the neglect ofa socio-cultural trend that had caused the predicament . As the number of individual wage - earners has - due partly to the proce ss of individualisa tion in society - risen in the space of three decades from 45 percent to nearly 70 percent of the total population, the number s of wage-earners at the lower end of the income -distribu tion have also risen in propor tion . This rise is almost wholly due to the growing numbers of women in the labour -market and to the (if po ssible) even larger numbers of people entitled to welfare payments. In both categorie s, most worker s have entered the income -distribution from a position of 1 `zero -earning s'. In the light of thi s, the much-quoted statement that such figures should show that `the poor are getting poorer, and the rich are getting richer' is both curious and incorrect . The evident assumption here is the workers had a better deal wh en they were earning nothing at all! In addition, one should not automatically conclude that the opposite holds true: the social processes of women's liberation and individu alisation have meant that a great many individuals on low pay must now run a household single-handedly, where previously they didn 't have to. However the Council still think s it right, from now on , to have the `inclusive' (i.e . with `zero -earners') income -distribution as well as the traditional `exclusive' version in their survey s.

We thus find that the ideas we generally view objectively contain more elements of Sollen than we would like . That i s nothing new and a s such not surpri sing. It would be more surprising were the oppo site also to apply. Is that in fact not the ca se? Do not the realms of Sollen and free political opinion -formation contain a great de al of Sein as well? We have already just noted thi s, but all the same this question still deserve s a moment or two's consideration. So let us look more closely at policy a s a prototype of Sollen .

The ideal i s the politician who practises his vocation on the ba sis of deeply-rooted ideological principles and only need s science to let him know how be st to achieve his ends. It is this view on which, among other things, the notion of the alternative scenari o as a study of the future is based: science supplies these scenarios and the politician then make s a choice based on his/her ideological background . But that picture is over- WI SE BEFORE T H E E V E N T

2 o/2 5 years wttR

simplistic. First of all, care should be t aken with the suggestion of'social shaping ' and freedom of deci sion implicit in that approach . Naturally, one is free to make a par ticular choice , but failure to reali se that such a choi ce is embedded in the flow of hi story will mean much potenti al for confusion. Thus the `higher education for all' doctrine was only formulated once the `facts' had for some time alre ady been moving in that direction and the growing numbers of students in higher education had been brought to a halt. The 1970s and 198os doctrine of the `leisure society ' only came to the fore when ri sing unemployment seemed unstoppable , from which it was falsely concluded that employment was also permanently falling (in stead of a marked ri se in the labour supply) . The `basic income' doctrine was another reflection of this theory. The policy option of `work, work , work!' was made not so long ago when the deregulation of the labour market wa s well under way and it had not proved po ssible for at least a decade to stem the growing supply of labour. Nevertheless the social debate on `employment' still hold s that it is the ideological re -evaluation of work (a new work ethic , a return to the mentali ty of the i95o s, etc.) that colours the social reality, rather than th at a historically and empirically demonstrable movement of l abour deregulation must surely be the rea son for the new attitudes to work. Many examples clearly show that ideology too can only follow the sweep of history or, in other words, th at we may only make conceptual a ssociations if the `flow of history' has already giv en us some of the facts. The one- sidedly voluntaristic 'social shaping' philosophy, which hides behind the overcultivation of `free political c hoice ', ignores the fact that reality is also made outside the domain s of politics or policy. This is also evident from the fact that the political rejection of a given scen ario does not always prevent the predicted reality from actually happening. Thus the politicians' refusal to individualise the minimum -wage re sulted in today's minimum-wage being hardly more than 7 0 percent of what it should have been with full indexation. This would still be enough, if the statutory welfare minimum for a multi-person family had not end ed up at the same meagre 7 0 percent , with all its consequences, e .g. single mother s on welfare.

Just as the Sein unmistakably conceal s a great deal of Sollen, the reverse also applies. Ideology, including poli tical ideology, often shadows the `flow of history' . The free political choice , i.e. the pure Sollen, conceals more S ein than one might at fir st suppose. Thus ideas, seemingly embody - ing freedom of choice and the exercise of free-will, are pre-formed to a significant extent by hi storical and hence also empirically verifiable trends . A TO RUL E AND TO FORESE E

This latter point receives short shrift in the conflicting claims ofvolun- tarism and determini sm; thus short shrift for the degree in whi ch ideology follows reality, and short shrift for this version of the complicated interplay of facts and opin ions. Meanwhile, the fact that opinion s `colour' facts has become a widely-accepted blemish on the once so spotless distinction between Sein and Sollen. But since the downfall of Marxist scientific methodology, far too little notice has been t aken of the fact that historical processes that can be ver ified by empirical analysis can themselves also `colour' opinions and ideology.

Good science is science th at is aware of the socio-cultural context in whi ch its concepts are born. That applies a fortiori to the sciences that operate at the inter face of science and policy. Their context i s unavoidably a political 33 or a policy c on text full of intention s, plan s, ideologie s and taboo s . As a Baron von Munchhau sen, they must study this context u sing tool s inevitably `coloured ' by thi s same con text . T hu s the art ofthis kind of scienc e lies in striking a proper balance b etween di stance and nearne ss. The ideas, questions and answer s are them selves elements of the hi storical pro cess that mu st be studied using the se self-s ame concept s, questions and an swer s.

Science, just like policy, is caught up in the flow of history. If the social sciences are institutionalised, there is a grave ri sk that their ide as and oth er instruments will stay tied too long to a socio-cultural context that may itself be out of dat e. Naturally, the only op tion here is to institutionalise the scientific research process. Without such a structure in place , it is likely that no relev ant research at all would have emerged . But this is not to deny in any way that it remain s important to incorpor ate into science mechanisms that continually assess existing concepts. In this context a more serious emphasis on futurology is highly important. In futurology, in particular, the u sual tools and the obvious ideas are subjected to the stern- est tests, even though their extrapola tions seldom produce a predictable reality. In futurology we are confronted with today's myths, more so than in the empirical approach alone. Future-studies generally h elp us in better recognising the sign s of the times than in predicting the future . To get a clear view of one 's own times and to find the intellectual ideas in which Today's reality can be captured, one needs to think of the Future `in parallel' with the Pre sent. So it is unfortunate that the empiri cal academi c approach - in itself u seful and necessary - points so one-sidedly to a backward-looking Present. Supplementing this approach with a forward- W ISE B EFORE T H E EVE N T

20/25 years WRR

looking, Prometheist , more teleological and/or functionalist view where the interaction of facts with ide as plays a principal role might well h ave a beneficial influence on the balan ce of distance and nearness required for exercising the powers of the imagin ation. The idea that this process stretches the boundary of science too far can only ari se if one proceeds from the basis of a very n arrow scientific viewpoint indeed.

If there is a lesson in the above, it is not th at ofrelativism. The idea that knowledge of reality is bound up with Reality itself does not mean that anything goes. Indeed the lesson here is that each historical period carries with it its own socio-cultural reality, which is captured in ideas and opinions; and that to institutionalise s uch opinions and idea s can in time lead to conflicts between actual trends and perc eived reality. This also 34 means that many debates on the n ature of Right and Wrong not only conceal a paradigmatic distortion but are also overtaken by events . Political and moral opinion -building are an attempt to give ide as of humanity, justice and solidari ty a form appropriate to their own era. With this the concrete or in stitution alised form of the more entrenched value or mor e basic principle is quite often upheld.

Thu s with hind sight colonialism or apartheid obviou sly appear to belong to the mor ally `wrong ' catego ry; but in e arly zoth-c entury socio -cultur al re ality these system s were doubtle ss acceptable interpretations of value s centr al to Dutch and We stern b eliefs - values also still upheld tod ay. The same applie s to attitudes relating to the stru ctur e of the family unit and particularly to th e wom an's role and the bre adwinner' s position within the family. The supporters o f a new era too glibly l abel the norm ality ofa bygone age as `wrong' and di scriminatory, just as this new er a's growing normality c an only signify moral d ecline for the defenders of the status quo , without th ere actually b eing any difference s about the und erlying value s. Th e CDA's report on its Strategisch B eraad (Strategic Consultation) not only make s clear thi s line of thought in the title (Nieuwe w egen , caste waarden /New Ways, Traditional Values), but al so te sts a development in the socio -economic field and in particular th e area of social se curity.

Just as a s tay abroad provide s an insight into the social and cultural odd- ities of one's own country, a future-study offer s us the chance of con sid- ering the question as to whether the usual ideas and practices of science and policy can still bring the contemporary reality into th e full light of day. It is precisely there where the import ance of the wxR's forecasting role A TO R ULE AND TO FORE S E E

lies: the prospective approach opens a window on to the Pre sent that often provid es fascinating additional insights into the image created on the basis of historical facts and empirical reasoning . We are u sed to dealing with the idea of the Pre sent as the result of the Pa st; the Present as the result of a leap in to the Future frequently offers us new and intriguing vi stas. It is in this supplementary capacity that the WRR carries out its most vital and difficult role .

THE ORGANI S ATION OF SE R E ND I PI TY

Every organisarion has clearly-defined terms of reference. The wRU's dutie s are also defined in this way, as indicated above. The problem , however, i s that these terms of reference are fluid and offer little to go on . 35 It is hard to formalise an activity such as `balancing on the point o f a knife- blade' . On the one h and, this creates leeway for reports that can set the policy on another footing by showing that a certain widely-accepted pra c- tice is not the only available option. Conversely, this process can again also allow so much leeway that ther e is a risk of very few u seful questions being developed or that policy- suggestions will have little if any relevance to actual policy-practice. In that case, there are no antennae to receive the Council's signals and the report itself just vanishes into the bo ttom drawer. This wide degree of di scretion means the WRR has to re-establish its functionality every time. The Coun cil has no clearly-defined dutie s, such as publishing a social and cultural report , preparing macro -economic forecasts or producing an annual statistical review; no annually recurring dutie s for its own staff to perform - duties which in time would not only create a fixed routine of activities, but also a lasting expectation of the quality of work expected . As there are no fixed pattern s of this type in the Council's work and mu ch depends on inspired intuitions - or serendipity, albeit organised - the Coun cil is to some degree identified with its last few reports .

The continu ance ofan institute that must continu ally justify it s existence is a problem and demands further structuring . The most basic guar antee lies, of course , in the law. The system where the government maintains an organi sarion on condition that it conducts itself independently is not unknown in the Netherland s (c£ the N etherl ands Court of Audit and De Nederland sche Bank) , butis still rather unusual in mo st foreign countri es - particularly if that organisation is also required to provide the government with properly researched and substantiated ideas for its future policie s . W ISE BEFORE T H E E V EN T

2o/25 years WRR

That a minimum number of procedures will need to be observed goes without saying.

The WRR uses both formal and informal pro cedures. The form al procedures mainly refer to the Council 's interaction with the Cabinet . The WRR operate s on the ba sis of (formal ) requests for advice from the g overnment or on its own initiative. In both cases considerable attention is given to defining the problems to be tackled by the re search-project in question. Certainly where r equests for advice are concerned, the WRR must take care that it fails to become involved in pr elimin ary policy-issues by taking too narrow and concentrated an approach when formulating its questions . Furthermor e, the fact that the Council goes through its own working- programme with the C abinet halfway through the fir st year of a new five- year term of office means that the government generally submits relatively few form al requests, apart from which the Council may in fa ct already have included topics in its own programme of work before the governmen t frames its own suggestions as formal requests. Generally speaking this arrangement means that the w RR's research activities do not fall outside the Cabinet's sphere of intere st and that they can be pur sued on a sufficiently independent basis.

The specific relationship of consultation and indep endence vis-a-vis the Cabinet is also reflected in the pro cedure followed when publi shing reports. Before publishing a report, the WRR is required to have submitted it to the Coun cil of Mini sters for information. A io -day period is usually observed for this . After that comes publication. The Cabinet is then required to issue an official response to the report and its policy recom- mendarion s within a specified period (in practice usually three month s). Although the po ssibility exists for the Cabinet not to commit itselfin its response for rea sons of poli tical expediency (c£ the Cabinet's one-paragraph reaction to the mid-1997 report Van verdelen Haar verdienen (F rom sharing to earning), this process still underl ines the Council's own part in the publi c debate.

The WRR Council Members are collectively responsible for the Council 's reports. This oblige s every member to participate as fully as possible in the research -project, even if this is not his or her particular area of specialisation. Regular consultation at wRR-level is also needed in order to monitor the progress of the various projects, preferably on the b asis of specific draft texts . Official Coun cil meetings accordingly take place at least once every A TO RULE AND TO FORESE E

two weeks. Such a procedure has a clearly-defined function : the various disciplines represented within the WRR are continually confronting one another, thus avoiding the risk that a Council report will be trapped within the confines of a single discipline, while also respecting the integrity of the project as far as possible .

On the odd occasion it can prove impo ssible to reach consensus on all or parts of the content s of a WRR report. In this case it is po ssible for one or more Council members to express a minority opinion . In such a case, the same standards of scientific accountability and documentation also apply.

The Council members usually have a maximum five -year term of office . A second period can be considered . There is a clear reason for limiting their tenure: if they be come too deeply rooted in the no-man 's-land of science 37 and pol icy, this will be detrimental to the w RR's characteristic `mirroring' role. Moreover, appointing new members is first and foremo st the job of the Chairman (who is al so subject to the same limited tenure) . In this process, academic distinction in a relevant field and a `feel' for policy issues are the key selection criteria. There are no direct `politic al' appointments in the w Rx. At the most , the chairmanship - as one of the most important publi c functions - can be a part of an agreed sharing of positions between political groupings; but scholarship and a feel for poli cy issues still remain the essential criteria. In practice, the aim is also to strike a political balance as far as the members of the Coun cil are concerned. That doe s not mean, however, that academics unconnected with any political party are barred from Council member ship. All members, except the Chairman , have a part-time appointment of usually 6o p ercent of the working week . Thus the members still maintain their link s with their original organisations (universities or industry) . The WRR has from six to nine members . It can recruit an advisory member to add his or her expertise to specific projects . In such a case the same procedures also apply.

The WRR is supported by an academic staff numbering around 14 . Here as well many discipline s are represented . The academi c staff not only repre- sent a body of expertise built up ov er the years, but also stand for the continuity of the wu R's work - even more than the Council itself.

But all of the se are still only surface details. It is interesting to ask how it all works in practice . How are topics for pos sible Coun cil reports placed on the agenda? How did the Council arrive at the ideas of `basic education' or WI SE B EFORE T H E EVEN T

2 o/25 years wRR

`labour-force participation'? To uncover such questions, certain internal procedures will need closer examin ation. These procedures have `crystal- lised ' during the Council's life and have al so adapted to changing circumstances. Hence it is the full Council that decide s if a particular matter is to be taken up.

That often happens on the ba sis of a proposal developed by one or more Council members . If the Council gives its approval, a project group i s then put together, with a Council member alway s acting as project-leader and a senior staff-member as project-coordinator . Such a group con sists of several Council and staff members . That group in fact prepares the Council report and for this purpose meets for regular discussions with the full staff and Council . All the projects on the Council's agenda are also fir st 3$ discu ssed at the staffmeeting held every two week s . The Council Secretary reports the results of the staff meeting to the Council Meeting.

Just from the limited size of both Council and staff, it is evident th at Council and staff members need to be highly versa tile . At any event , no-one can allow themselves to limit their expertise to a narrow, specific area of knowledge. A research budget i s also available for ve ry specialised tasks , out of which proje cts are regul arly commissioned, both internall y and ex - ternally. A (succes sful) project usually l asts two to two and a h alf years. An unusually high proportion by academic standard s of this period i s spent on the conceptual pha se of the re search in que stion. That again fits in well with the highly conceptual n ature of the Coun cil's activities. Moreover, there has hardly been a single Council pe riod that has not included a debate on the appropriatenes s of these and similar internal procedures.

Both the formal and the informal (and usually internal) procedures have therefore contributed to the fact that over the past 25 years the WRR has carved out a place for itself in the policy debate . But this still does not tell the full story of the wRR's z5 years. It is hard, for instance, to avoid the impression that a number ofspecifically Dutch circum stances and Hague coincidences have contributed to its functioning and durability . Thus the typically Dutch context of successive coalition- cabinets may very well have contributed to its autonomy and independence . A two-party political system would have doub tless involved it in inter-party strife far earlier on , or - had it resisted - just elbowed it a side as a mere bit -part player. The WRR's addres s in The Hague i s also significant , symbolising as it does both distance and involvement : Plein 1 813 is near enough to maintain contact A TO RUL E AND TO FORES E E

with the Cabinet and poli ticians should the need arise , yet far enough away not to get entangled in the day -to-day bu siness of politics.

The general conclusion is clear: inside the framework of th e legal gu arantee the WRR is a happy and par tly coincidental compromise between di stance and ne arness. In re spect to both polic y-bodies and academi c institutions, the WRR is sufficiently independent while still being involv ed in the process . However , such a position - even if guaranteed by law - must always be renegotiated , thus making heavy demands on the balance of `daring' and `respect': the `daring' to conjure up a future and th e `respect' for the realities ofthe day. In the words of Plato 's dialogue, which opened the introduction : just as Epimetheu s could not manage without Prome - theus, the converse also applies. Prometheu s might not have discovered 39 any original ideas had he not respected the conditions that Epimetheus had created. And as he was not always aware of this, Prome theus's story takes yet anoth er turn . For when he had twice tricked the mighty Z eus, Hephaistos had him ch ained to a rock in the C aucasus, where an eagle constantly preyed on hi s liver. Thus the task of ruling may also be that of foreseeing the future and the WRR may play its part in th at process - but tempting fate does not form part of it.

Reference s

D o nner, A . M . (ig 6 9), Bee ld ens t or m t o Rotterda m ' (`I mage-brea k in g in Rotte rd am ') ;

Ax-Staatkunde vol . 39 . PP . 137-147•

Huizinga, J . (1926), `Intellectuele organisatie' ('Intellectual organisation') in : Amerika ; leuend en denkend; Haarlem, H .D . Tjeenk Willink & Zoon, pp . 133-1¢1 .

Jo lles, H.M . (19 64), Mogelijkheden van organisa tie van hetsociaal-wetenschappelijk onderzoek in Nederland ten dienste van het overheidsbeleid (Organisational choices for socio-scientific research in the Netherlands in aid ofofficial government policy) ; memorandum for the swx Government Contact-Commission, Amsterdam, KNAW .

Maarseveen, H . Th .J . van (1969), 'De heerschappij van de minis terraad' ; ('The rule of the Council of Ministers') ; speech to the Nederlandse Economische Hogeschool,

Ro tterdam, on 3 0 January 3 0 1 96 9 when accep ti ng the post of Professor of Law with special reference to Constitutional and Administra ti ve Law ; published : 's-Gravenhage , Staatsuitgeverij,1973 • WI SH B EFO R E T H E EVE N T

20 1$ years WRR

OECD (1966), The Social Sciences and the Policies of Governments ; Advisory Group on the Social Sciences, OECD, Paris .

Report by ofthe Government/Social Science Council Contact-Commission's Working Party) ; Amsterdam, KNAW, June 1965.

Report by the Commission for Preparatory Research into the Future Structure of Society ; Staatsuitgeverij, The Hague, 1 970.

SWR (1965), Commentaar op het rapport van de Werkgroep uit de Contactcommissie OverheidISociaal-Wetenschappelijke Road (Commentary on the Report by the Government/Social Science Counci l Contact-Commission's Working Party) ; Amsterdam, KNAW. 40

Budget statement ofthe income and expenditure ofthe Min istry ofGeneral Affairs for the year 199 7; Explanatory m emorandum : Lower Hou se 1997, i5 00o no . 3. A TO R ULE AND TO F ORESE E

NOT BY POLICY ALONE G.J. Kronjee and R . Rabbing e

I N TRODUCTIO N

The research conducted for WRR reports aim s to establi sh a bridge between science and policy. If this policy -oriented research leads to the improved formulation of policy i ssues and a more effective respon se to them and also contribute s towards scientific progress, science and policy will be more effec tively co-ordinated , to the advantage of both. The extent to which scientific research can be used for policy purposes is , however, sometimes called into question. Policy-makers complain that academics supply research that i s too remote from the real world . Conversely, researchers consider that government poli cy is too unclear to provide a basis for research and that the issues are unsuitable for scientific research - apart from which results are expected too quickly . Policy and research therefore ppear to inhabit two different worlds in a problematical relationship with 1a one another . These two world s meet in the Council's reports to the govern - ment. The question therefore arise s as to whether thi s problematical relationship applie s here as well .

By way of preparation for WRR reports, multi -disciplinary re search is conducted, the results of which are , in general, published separately in the Preliminary and Background Studies series and in scientific journ als. Much of this research is by way of a survey of existing knowledge in a particular scientific field. In addition research is conducted in order to garner new knowledge . This research may be conducted by WRR staff or may be contracted out to external re searcher s. In this way WRR reports may provide the grounds for research by bodies other than the WRR itself.

WRR reports are aimed at i ssues of policy relevance and are based to a large extent on scientific insights. They therefore provide a meeting -point for two approache s to reality, that of policy and that of science . In particular, the world of policy seeks substantiation for existing poli cies or for policies that are being proposed by way of alternative. Science by contrast accords primacy to epistemological questions. It is therefore an intere sting question, as formulated by Van de Vall (i 98o), as to whether researchers involved in policy-oriented research do not end up like the proverbial donkey untied between equidi stant bales of hay, so that neither of the ambitions is realised .

This article sugge sts that the re search conducted for and by the WRR can in principle be of relevance both for the response to policy issue s and for WI SE BEFORE THE E V E N T

20l251J [ ar3 WRR

expanding the stock of scientific knowledge. A distinction is drawn between the following three approaches to research: • the analytical/diagnostic a pproach of clinical research ; • the engineer's approach ; • the pedagogical approach .

In the clinical approach policy problems are treated as a symptom of underlying social problems . The analytical /diagnostic method is characterised by an an alysis of the identified symptoms , the reformulation of the problem and the recognition of the backgrounds to the problem . A reformulation of the complaint can result in the more adequate solution of the problem. A good clinician (see also Gouldner, 1975) identifies the source of the complaint and in doing so sometimes arrives at a diagnosi s that can 4z result in the use of a drug with fewer side -effects , or - in the case of social problems - at solutions that are more acceptable as they are less controver- sial than earlier intentions.

The engineer 's approach is characterised by, on the on e hand, a problem- solving approach and, on the other, by a designer , horizon-shifting approach. In his role a s engineer the re searcher does, however, stay within the limits of the set problem. The formulation of the problem i s accepted without amendment a s the framework for the research. Neverthele ss unthought of and unforeseen policy perspectives may be brought forward and explored in terms of their possibilities and limitations . In this way the engineer can ultimately come up with altern ative solutions that are more effective or efficient than the customary one s.

Under thepedagogical approach the researcher evaluates the quality of the proposed or current policy with a view to helping the government draw lessons. It is investigated whether the proposals result in a systematic improvement. This evaluation need certainly not always take place retro- specrivelyafter the proposals have been implemented ; there is a great deal to be learned from early warning and early listening . A prospective evaluation, in which a heuristic approach is adopted, can reduce the uncertainty concerning the ultimate results of policy advice and recommendations .

With regard to this characteri sation of the various roles of the researcher it should be noted w ithout further ado that we are dealing h ere with meta - phors for purpose s ofclarification . The characterisation does not , of course , A TO RULE A ND TO FORESEE

do full justice to the content of the work of the clinician , engineer or teacher. Apart from the u tility for policy purposes , the research conducted for the reports compiled by the WRR on policy-oriented issues may be expected to have atwo-fold significance for science, namely : • a contribution towards theory-building; • the development of new methods and techniques of research.

In total we are therefore concerned with five types of contributions: three for policy and two for science . These are illustrated below on the ba sis of the research carried out for a number Of WRR reports.

4 3 CONTRIBUTION TOWARD S POLI C Y O F A C L I NI C A L APPROA C H

Integrated agricultur e In 1983 the WRR published its report A Policy- Oriented Survey of th e Future. Part z: Towards a Broader Perspective, which outlined develop - ments in various policy fields on the basis of `characteristic visions' drawn from the political debate . One of the investigations conducted as a prelimi - nary study for this survey of future developments related to agr iculture (Van der Weijden , Van der Wal , De Graaf et . al., 1984) . This study did not conduct research in the usual way. Traditional agricultural research concentrated primarily on the achievement of productivity gains, pursuing this goal by means of change s in production te chniques, land-development and land -use. An extension of the aim s of agri culture by tho se of nature and the environment wa s, however, the consequence of the 'sociocratic' elabor ation in the policy -oriented survey of future developments .

In their study Towards an Integrated Agriculture, the researchers described the potential for integrated agriculture combining the objectives of nature and the environment with those of agriculture and land -use. The research demonstrated that the pursuit of the se broader objectives going beyond agricultural production alone did not have to re sult in a reduction in productivity goals and hence the bankruptcy and liquidation of agricul - tural enterpri ses. It was shown th at many po ssibilities for integrated agri - culture could result in a reduction in costs . What we in fa ct have therefore are win-win situations. In principle , this extension of the objectives could overcome the pola risation between environmental movement s and agri- WIS E BEFORE THE EVEN T

2025 y [dI3 WRR

culture . This study set the tone for many follow -up studies. The integrated research into agriculture and the environment thus received scien tific recogni tion and multi -functional agriculture, which had hitherto been maligned, has since then been clearly more ac cepted (see also : Enema , Hetsen and Nooij, 1996) .

Integrated agriculture has produced gains in many areas, both for the environment and in a business -management sense. Practical implementation of the results of this study occurred not just in the Netherlands but also in other countries of the European Community. European agriculture has undergone radical change since the early ig8os . In many cases agriculture for production purposes only has been combined with integrated agriculture, i.e. with the realisation of social and environmental goals .

Basic education Other examples of the clini cal appro ach are provided by the research con - ducted for the report Ba sic Education. This advisory report conducted on behalf of the government on the desirable content , duration and structure of basic education for each Dutch citizen was publi shed by the WRR in February 1 986 . The report took a ccount of anticipated future social developments, educational aims and the possibilities of the education. It was proposed offering all pupil s in seconda ry education the same core curriculum of 14 subjects. The attainment targets for these subjects would be laid down nationally and be tested at two level s. The recommendations were largely adopted by the government and r esulted in the introduction of basic education in the fir st stage of seconda ry education. The report also saw the publication of 3 1 reports on re search carried out on behalf of the wRR. As a result other institutions also conducted research into the proposed sy stem of basic education . The research conducted for the WRR report provides a numb er of examples of the reformulation of i ssues, which led to more suitable solutions . These included `learning to le arn', the nature -nurture issue and the middle-school debate.

Learning to learn. The importance of learning how to l earn wa s fairly generally accepted at the time of writing the report on basic education . Knowledge would quickly become dated ; if pupils could only learn how to learn, they would con sistently be able to acquire new knowledge . In response to the fact that knowledge was becoming dated increasingly rapidly, the utility of sub stantive knowledge was being increasingly quali - fied within the educational system. On the other hand there was a growth A TO R U LE AND T O F ORE SE E

in pretensions. There wer e serious move s to amalgamate subjects into area s of learning with wide -ranging goals that could be reali sed by genera - ting pupils' critical faculties . One of the scientists advising on the report, Span, noted however that the problem of le arning to learn could no t possibly be solved by methods lacking content. The problem of learning to learn would in that case be incorrectly defined. Research had shown that factual knowledge explained a very high proportion of pupil performan ce. This meant that - in contra st to the customary opinion at the time - an emphasis on knowledge was justified and th at the retention of a curriculum with traditional subjects was desirable.

Nature-nurture. The deba te about educational reform was paral ysed by the struggle about the unresolved problem of the respective importance of the environment and her edity in the development of intelligen ce. The issue 45 posed by the wRit, however, paved the way for a fruitful reformula tion of the problem . By concentrating on the que stion of the possibilities for the further development of learning cap acity up to a level that was adequate for basic education it proved possible to circumvent the awkward nature - nurture debate. It turned out to be incorrect to set a limit on the possibilities for basic education on the ground s that the average intelligence of pupils cre ated a limitation that needed to be treated as a given. On the basis of research, Van Parreren formul ated the problem not as a limitation on the po ssibilities ofeducational reform impo sed by the unequ al distribution ofintelli- gence but as a problem of children 's capacity to learn . He posited that intelligence, as measured by IQ tests, was not the same thing a s the capacity to learn (Van Parrer en,1986). IQ was assumed to be largely h ereditary in nature . The cap acity to learn , however, was not an innate, monolith ic factor but the outcome of a diversity of factors : (a) intellectual and per son- ality traits, such as the language spoken in the ind ividual's environment , the child 's motivation and creativity; (b) basic cognitive factor s, such as ability to concentrate; and (c) educational preconditions, e.g. the knowledge that children h ad gained at pre-school stage. According to Van Parreren re search had indicated that a response to the question a s to what was a suitable curriculum for a child at a particular age - i .e. the educational possibilities at that point - depended primarily on the quali ty and inten sity of the education itself. This insight, which had been b ased on research, provided th e necessary room for educational reforms aimed at increasing the level of basic education . WI SE BEFORE T H E EVE N T

20125 yea rs wR x

Education structure. A further ob stacle to the desired raising of educational standard s was the bogged down debate on the structure of secondary education . For this reason a number of Am sterdam researcher s were asked to investigate what, in terms of the existing educational in sights, would be an adequate structure for ba sic education . Their report indicated that the middle-school deb ate had got stuck as it tended to ignore the many form s of differentiation that were possible in education (Vos, De Koning and Blom, 1985). The debate wa s, incorrectly, confined to the pros and cons of middle-schools . There turned out to be every rea son to conduct a well- documented survey of the various forms of differentiation and their effects.The re search report discussed the followingforms of differentiation : • the structure of the school system and the different typ es of schools; • the differ entia tion within a particular ty pe of school in term s of the 4 subjects taught; • the level at whi ch the subjects were taught ; • the available teaching time (i.e. the duration of the education) ; • the method of instruction, i .e . the way in which the tea ching is provided; • the fini shing level; • the inter action be tween the pupil and class structure.

According to the re searchers various variants were pos sible for each of these factors . This resulted in a very great numb er of theoretical possibilities from which one could choose in s tructuring basic education. This revealed that the debate had be come unduly concentrated on ju st the first level ofdifferentiation, namely the structure of the school system. Education policy therefore afforded far greater possibilities than had been assumed. This meant that basic education was certainly al so not a matter of boring uniformity. This insight removed an important ob stacle towards the necessary educational reform s.

THE CO N T R IBUTIO N TO WA R DS POLICY OF THE ENGI N EER'S APPROAC H

The researcher as clinician play s a fundament ally different role from the researcher as engineer . Although the work of both can lead to a change in the way in whi ch a problem i s defined , thus creating greater room for effective solutions, the researcher as clinician operates outside the defini - tion of a probl em, so that the perception of the probl em is opened up for discussion and analysed and diagno sed more closely. The researcher a s engineer stays within the set framework. He accepts the problem as A T O RU L E AND TO FORE S E E

presented to him, although it may be more tightly defined and separated into sub -problems , on which science may have something to say . It is also possible to explore alternative solutions, including the normative or technical limits within which the solutions ne ed to be found or within which policy needs to operate . The future is therefore explored and opened out rather than be ing nailed up.

Law enforcement In 1988 the WRR published its report Law enforcement, as a response to a request for advice by the government. The government asked how it should organise its own behaviour in order to limit the frequency with which members of the public violate the rules . Research was also conducted for this report , although not as much (ju st four external assignments) as that for the report on basic education. The external e xpertise related to the 47 problem of fraud , measures to combat crime at local level and the way i n which the police and legal systems operated . The other necessary research data were assembled by the permanent WRR staff and other s temporarily recruited to join the working group .

Finding a good and more precise definition of an often uncle arly formu - lated social problem or policy issue is not straightforward . Defining the problem of law enforcement a s one of `declining standards ' or `reduced social control' proved overly general and consequently incorrect . A definition of this kind afforded in sufficient opportunity to break down the issue into sub -problems , with the inherent potential for solution s. In writing the report it proved worthwhile to begin by differentiating law enforce - ment problems by drawing a distinction in term s of rules and regulations that were being violated : on the one h and the relatively new rule s of a social democracy (with the as sociated tax and social security crime) , and on the other the older rule s to protect the community again st theft and violence , etcetera . The various categori es of rules and regulations are associated with different enforcement problems .

This differentiation provid ed better access to scientific knowledge and also enabled a survey to be drawn up of the causal factors set out in the literature (Ruimschotel, 1988) . Research made it clear that in the former category of rules, preventive measures could provide a solution at all stage s of the policy chain. In the case of crime in the community, crim inal law enforcement needed to occupy a more central place , e.g. to support pre - WI SE BEFORE T H E E V E N T

2025 (f[ O/3 WR R

vention. Solutions for the more effective tackling of crime in the com - munity could also and primarily be found in the chain of law enforc ement. The research literature distinguishes four aspects : • certainty that criminal conduct will be followed by official intervention ; • the speed with which an offence is responded to ; • the severity of the intervention ; • the legal content of the intervention : society wishe s to prevent crime but not at any price .

A ccording to Steenhui s the factor of speed had received li ttle attention (Steenhuis, 1988) . The use of the metaphor of a chain for l aw enforcement led to the necessary attention in the report to th e way in which the co- ordination between the polic e, publi c prosecutions department, judiciary 4$ and prison system was organised . After the publication of the report this element-with the j oint emphas is on swiftness of response and co -ordination - received the ne cessary attention, e.g. in government policy.

Ground for Choices Agricultural re search also provides examples of a different nature. In 1992 the Council issued its report Ground for Cho ices, in which various alternatives for European agricultural policy were explored . The ground s for doing so stemmed from the continu ing increases in land and labour productivity. A major conclusion to emerge from the report was that the most important ob stacle towards the reform of the Europe an agricultural policy wa s not a lack but a surplu s of land .

In a preliminary study for a previou s report to the governm ent (The Un - finished European Integration, 1986), the researchers had demonstrated that the primary objectives in the charter for European agricultural policy of 1968 - namely the safe and adequate supply of food - had long been realised and that re form wa s urgentl y required (Mee ster and S trijker, 1985)• Ground for Choices set out alterna tives in which the political goals were confronted by technical possibilities . Alternative s were explored and the political playing-field wa s identified by means of multiple goal-program- ming. The political goals were derived from government white paper s and may be broken down into : • socio-economic goals, such as the min imisation of costs and maximisation of employment ; • environmental goals, such as the minimisation of nitrate emissions per unit product or square metre or the use of pesticides ; A TO RU LE AND TO FORE SE E

• agricul tural goals, such as the maximisation ofproductivity, measured in terms of the u se of land , labour, w ater and nutri ents.

These goals were confronted by the agricultural possibilities and the land- use . The information used was based on detailed sectoral studies provid - ing new in sights in a substantive and methodologi cal sense (the re sults were among other things publi shed in 12 WRR working docum ents). The linkage of extended geographi cal information systems concerning soil and climate with simulation model s for the growth in crops in potentially attainable circum stances was first effected h ere (Rabbinge, Van Diepen et al., 1994).

The scenarios that were worked out all provided a pi cture that differe d radically from the exi sting state of agriculture. The scenarios indicated 49 substantial change s in land use (a reduction in area of3o-6o% a nd a different distribution of agriculture throughout Europ e), employment and environmental effects. In all cases the picture differed rad ically from the existing basic problem of an excessive agricultural area combined with the necessarily high costs of price-support. The country- evaluations conducted for the report, in whi ch geographical information s ystems were combined with crop-growth simulation mod els and applied to a soil map ofEurope, were widely imitated (Van Diepen, 1996) . Simil ar approaches are now being applied in various other continents as well, e.g. in world food-supply studies, and have thrown greater light on the future possibilities for ensuring an adequate supply of food .

The concepts of Best Technical Means and Best Ecological Means used in the WRR study were el aborated in a specialist study that gave rise to both debate and adoption elsewhere (De Koning et al ., 1995). These concepts refer to a definition of production te chniques in which the necessary inputs were determined on the basis of the yields to be realised, as determined by simulation s tudies . The quantities a nd timing of those inputs were determined on the basis ofthe best techniques according to existing insights. With these concepts production techniques could be defined that were devised not ju st by empirical means but, in particular, by means of theoretical analysis. The application of th ese technique s resulted in efficiency and effectiveness gains which - due in part to the incorre ct mana- gerial assumptions on which 'rational' farmers had previou sly operated - had not hitherto been regarded a s possible. Existing pra ctices in agriculture proved to be far from optimal in term s of both farming technique s and WI SE B EFO R E THE EVE N T

20 /25 years WRR

land-use. The use of the Be st Technical Means at the right location s meant that produc tion wa s possible with a 3 0 percent reduction in means. In the case ofcrop protection a gents a reduction of go percent was even po ssible without detriment to productivity. On the contrary : the co sts also turned out to fall. The probl em was, however, that the farm er needed a great deal more insight, knowledge and self-confidence to adopt a policy of restraint towards crop protection agents.

IN ST RU C T I VE RE S EAR C H FOR POLI C Y

Government policy i s frequen tly evaluated in retro spect . Th is creates th e in superable problem th at at the point that the researcher s have completed their report , th e obj ectives of government policy may h ave changed . Too 50 little consideration is given to the fact that evaluation can al so be prospec - tive and ex ante in nature . In th at case the fea sibility and anticipated effects of a particular policy are investigated pri or to or during its introduction . Prospective evalu ation of thi s kind is not just instructive but may also mean that policy is adapted in good time. The fact th at thi s is not yet done suffi cien tly is prob ably related on the one hand to the nature of political decision -making, in which it i s difficult to int egr ate the con sequences in advan ce, and, on the other, to the g ap that is incorrectly perceived by scientis ts to exist between wanting and knowing and between policy an d science. The l att er take the view that a vision of reality based on normativ e po stulate s implie s that the prediction of the anticipated consequence s of implementing that point of view i s more a m atter of id eology than o f science. Thi s point of vi ew, however, di sregard s the large quantity o f his torical, economic , socio -s cientific and beh avioural knowledge available in many fields and may be due to a profession al myopi a on the part o f sometimes unduly specialised a cademics. It is also worth noting th at in private industry, qu ality-control - which may be comp ared with the evalu - ation of government policy - does increa singly take place in advance rathe r than in retrospect .

In this connection a publication is of interest that appeared in 19 88 in response to the WRR report on basic education (Beem, 1988) . This concerned an analytical evaluation, i .e. a reconstruction of a proposal for policy change in a means/ends structure and, linked to that, the evaluation as to whether the formulated assumptions could withstand the test of criticism . Such an analytical evaluation was new within the theory of education in the Netherlands ; this was the first time that the social or A TO R UL E AND T O FORE SE E

educational s cience s had examined the consequence s of polic y measures in the education al field for the rel ated evaluation study. The analy sis was conducted from three viewpoints: educational psychology, curriculum/the science ofteaching and educational s ociolo gy. This publication resulted in a research programme h aving been drawn up for fur ther research to accompany the continuing introduction of basic education.

TH E CO N T RIBUTIO N TO SCIE N TIFIC THEO RY

Both the natural and the social sciences seek through under standing to influence systems so as to achieve a desired result. Such influence may be the subject of particular attention by the engineering sciences, which may concentrate on the technological , biological as well as social systems . The predictability, robustness and resilience of these systems can, however, differ markedly. Policy-oriented re search seeks to identify the se factor s. In this regard the question may be asked whether su ch research can also make a contribution towards theory-building.

The di fficulty with social problems is that these would appear to be the wrong problems for scientific research, which is subject to the methodolog - ical requirement that the phenomenon to be investigated must be capable of precise formulation, thereby al so facilitating quantification . Social problems have many different dimensions. A phenomenon such as crime may, for example, relate to a very wide range of tot ally different kinds of behaviour. As soon as the question at issue becomes more precisely formulated, therefore, the research can lo se social relevan ce and h ence its useful- ness for e ffecting change in gove rnment policy. Ifas a scientific researcher one were nevertheles s to concentrate on policy-oriented questions, one would run the risk of m aking scientific statements that were surrounded by considerable uncertainty and which , in any case, would be of little relevance for science itself.

At first sight there is little to counter thi s view. Policy research would therefore have little to contribute to scientific progre ss . On further consideration, however, this view does not do justice to the way in whi ch scien- rificprogre ss is made. Such progress often takes surprising forms or is a matter of serendipity , and is often achieved by means of abduction, i.e. the process ofscientific progress which is preceded by an unexpected or even surprising observation . An explanation for that observation is then sought in existing theory. If that is not pos sible and a new theory needs to b e WIS E BEFORE TH E EVEN T

20125 yea rs wn x

developed, this is referred to as creative abduction (see for example Eco, 1984: 39 ff.).

It is difficult to determine the extent to which the wRR's research has led to such results. In order to do so the developments in individual scientific fields would need to be analysed in more detail. What is clear is that the definition of the problems in the reports can result in a certain awarene ss of topic s that have sometimes received insufficient attention a nd where the reformulation of the i ssue from a policy-oriented perspective can provide the nece ssary stimulus to pick up the thread again .

As part of a tradition of research into the backgrounds to and consequence s of social inequality, some of the WRR reports have stimulated fres h 52 research into this topic . These include Ethnic Minorities (1979) and Immi - grant Policy (1989) and Social Dichotomy in Perspective (1996) . In relatio n to the latter report, particular reference may be made to the preliminary study edited by Ganzeboom and Ultee (1996) .

From the questions posed in the aforementioned report on basic educa- rion,which was concerned with a certain age-group, it was notable that research in recent years had paid little if any attention to problems of puberty . Since then the problem of young people of that age has been the object of greater attention in research and policy (see for example Diekstra, 1992) - although as so often the role of the aforementioned WRR report is difficult to assess .

The research conducted for WRR reports has undoubtedly had the effect of stimulating further research into the environment and land-use . The preliminary studies for Ground for Choices gave rise to further research and scientific debate not just within but more especially outside the Nether- lands. The compilers of the WRR report held some zoo presentations i n zo countries, not just for academics but also for political bodies such as the European Parliament, European agricultural and nature conservation or- ganisarionsand the Eu Agriculture Council . The report also had an effect on the curricula at universities and the collaboration between researchers in various countries (Fresco et. al., 1994; Van Ittersum, Hijmans and Scheele, 1995). The methodology developed as a result of the WRR research was incorporated into the curricula at five universities . Another preliminary study for Ground for Choices concerned the development of a European ecological main structure (Bischoff and Jongman,1993)• By way of exten- A TO R ULE AN D TO FORESE E

Sion to their study for the WRR the researchers in que stion have now made a contribution towards the setting up and oper ation of a European centre for nature conservation re search.

TH E C ON T RIBU TIO N T OWARD S NEW M ET HOD S AND TEC HNIQU E S

There is a less obvious connection between the research carried out for the WRR and the development of new re search methods and techniques . Neverthele ss, a number of example s may be cited. In the discussion above of the research conducted for Ground for Choices and the effects of that research on policy , reference was made to the prior development of new methods and technique s . These concern: • the combination of geographi cal information systems with simulation models; • the explicit confrontation of variou s goals and their ex trapolation by means of exploratory model -based analyses; • the setting up and development of a European e cological main structure ; • the development of a target-oriented approach for the various production techniques; • the heuristic and interactive method ofapproach, under which scientists and politicians can jointly work on the scenario s.

The report on b asic education is a further example of a methodologi cal contribution . One year later, the numerous reactions to the r eport created the problem of how these should be processed . The responsible officials at the Ministry of Education and Science contracted out part of thi s task to the Leiden Interdis ciplina ry Centre for Educational Research (r. ccoR) . LICOR subsequently developed analytical instruments for storing and correlating the reactions on computer, thus permitting the d ata to be analysed in all sorts of ways and from variou s angles (Hoogeveen, Smit, Van der Linde et al., 1988) . A report by LICOR suggested that the reporting should not be regarded as the sole end-product of the research. The report could also be regarded as an illustration of the way in which reactions could be classified with the aid of the software that had been developed . As previou sly noted , the application possibilities were not confined to a single topi c; in principle a simil ar system could be set up for the analysis of reactions to any report , position paper or legislative propo sal. The applica - tion of the in struments that have be en developed en able an all-embracing insight to be obtained into the opinion s on and predictions with re spect to WI SE BEFORE T H E EVE N T

I01251f [ OIS W RR

certain proposals made by policy-makers, so that an appraisal can be made of the likely effects of the proposals in question .

CON CL U S IO N

In principle a WRR report afford s the possibility of matching up scientific and policy-oriented i ssues to the benefit of both policy development and scientific research . Experience shows that it is pos sible to displace the presumed limits to the use of scientific research in solving policy questions. `Blank spots' can be filled in by the different formulation or further differentiation of policy issues . The uncertain ty inherent in policy c an be reduced by research . At the same time it is possible for policy-oriented research to further scientific progress. 54

References

Beem, A .L . (ed.) (1988), Weten, Redeneren, Raden . Een analytische evaluatie van de basisvorming (Knowing, Reasoning, Guessing . An analytical evaluation of basic education) ; Amsterdam/Lisse, Swets & Zeitlinger By.

Bischoff, N .T. and R .H .G . Jongman (1993), Development of rural areas in Europe: the claim voor nature ; WRR , Preliminary and Background Studies series no . 79 , The Hague, SDU Uitgeverij .

Di ekstra, R . F .W . (ed . ) in col laboration with J .L . van den Braude, P. G . H eymans, G . A . K ohnstamm et al . (i99z), Jeugd in ontwi kkeling. Wetenschappelijke inzichten en overheidsbeleid; (Youth in devel opment : scientific insights and government p olicy) ; W RR, Pr el im inary and Ba c kground St udie s se rie s no .75, The H ague, S DU Uitgeveri j .

Eco, Umberto (1984), Semiotics and the Philosophy ofLanguage ; London, Mac M i llan press LT .

Ettema, M .T.A ., H . He[sen and A .J . Nooij (1996), Rurale ontwikkeling inpublicaties . Een inventarisatie van de belangrijkste publica ties op het terrein van rurale ontwikkeling in deperiode (Rural development in publications . A survey of the most important publications in the field of rural development in the period 1975-1996) ; The Hague /

Wageningen, N R ► .o Report no . 96/ 23 . A TO RU L E AND TO FORES E E

Fresco, L .O ., L . Stroosnijder, J . Bouma and H . van Keulen (eds .) (1994), Thefuture of the land; mobilizing and integrating knowledgefor land use options ; Chichester, Wiley .

Ganzeboom, H . B . G . and W. C . Ultee (eds . ) (1996), De sociale segmentatie van Nederland in 2 01 s (The social segmentation of the Netherlands in zoi5) ; WRR, Preliminary and Background Studies series no. 96 , The Hague , SDU Uitgevers .

Gouldner, A . W. (19 7 S), quoted in : T. B . Bo ttomo re , Socio logy . A guide to proble ms and literature ; London, George Allen & Unwin, p . 321 .

Hoogeveen, K .B . Smit, H . van der Linde et al . (1988), Analyse van de commentaren op het wxx rapport 'Basisvorming in het onderwijs ' (Analysis of the commentari es o n the wxx'Basic education' report) ; Leiden, L ICOR. 55

I tte r s um , M . K . van , R . J . Hij man s and D . Sc h eel e (1995), D escrip tio n and u se guide of coat.-QuAST: an IMGLP model for the exploration offuture land use ; Quantitative Appro ac h es in Sy ste ms Analy si s no z , Wa ge n ingen , D L O Resear ch Institute for Agrobio logy and Soi l Ferti lity an d C .T. de W it Graduate School for Producti on Ecology.

Koning, G . H . J . de and C . A . van Diepen (1992), Crop production potential of rural areas within the European Communities IV: Potential, water- limited and actual crop p ro - duction ; wax, Working Documents no . 68, The Hague .

K oning , G .H . J . de, H . v an Keul e n , R . R . Rabbi ng e a nd H . J an sse n (19 95) . 'Determination of in put and output coefficients of cropping systems in the European Community ' ; Agric ul t ural S ystems n o . 4 8 . PP . 48 5 -502•

Meester G . and D . Strijker (1985), Het Europese landbouwbeleid uoor6ij de scheidslijn van ze tfo ooiziening (European agricultural ppolicy beyond the dividing line of self- sufficiency) ; WRR, Preliminary and Background Studies series no . 46, The Hague , Staatsuitgeverij .

Parreren, C . F. van (1 9 86), Leer- en ontwikkelingspsychologische aspecten van de basisvorming (Learning and developmental psychology aspects of basic education) ; WRR, Working Documents WB 21, The Hague .

Rabbinge, R . , C .A . van Diepen, J . Dijsselbloem, G . J . H . de Koning, H . C . van Latesteijn, E . Woltjer and J . van ZijI (i994) , Ground for choices : a scenario study on perspec ti ves for rural areas in the European Community' ; in : L . O . Fresco et al . (eds . ), pp . 95- 121 . W ISE BEFORE T H E EVEN T

so/zs years tvxR

Ruimschotel, D . (1988), Criminelegedragingen, overheiden samenleving, een drieluik (Criminal behaviour, government and society, a triptych) ; W RR, Working Documents no . 36, The Hague .

Rupp, J . and P. Jungbluth (eds) (1988), Algemene basisvorming. Schept de Wetenschap- pelijke Raad voor het Regeringsbeleid betere onderwijskansen? (Basic education . Is the Scien ti fic Council for Gove rn ment Policy creating better educa ti onal opportunities?) ; N ijmegen, Instit ute for Appli ed Social Sciences .

Steenhuis, D .W. (1 9 88) , Doelmatigheid van rechtsvervo lging (Effectiveness of criminal prosecution) ; WRR, Working Documents no. 3 5 , The Hague .

Val l , M ark van de (ig8o), Sociaal beleidsonderzoek; een professioneelparadigma (Social po l icy research, a professiona l paradigm) ; Alphen aan de n Rijn, Samsom Uitgeverij .

Vos, J . F . , P. de Koning and S . Blom ( 19 85), Onderwijs op de tweesprong . Over de inrich- ting van de basisuorming in de eerstefase van het voortgezet onderwijs (Education at the cross-roads . On the organisation of basic education in the first stage of seconda ry education) ; WRR, Preliminary and Background Studies series no . 45,The Hague, Staatsuitgeverij .

Weijden , W. J . van d e r H . van d er Wal , H .J . de G ra af et a l . (19 84) , B ou ws tene n voor ee n geintegreerde landbouw (Towards an i ntegrated agricu l tu re) ; WRR, Preliminary and Background Studies series no. 44, The Hague, Staatsuitgeverij . A T O RULE AND TO F ORESE E

EXPLORING UNCHARTED TERRITORY H.C. van Latesteijn and I .J. Schoonenboom

IN T RODU CT IO N

Policy often is a direct transl ation of our view s and wishes concerning the future into policy aim s and objectives . In these aims and objec tives governments make clear how - based on insights - they intend to shape th e future . It might be deduced from this that the future is not something which simply happen s to u s, but i s the result of our own ac tion s ba sed on asse ssments of opportuni ties and threats.

And yet the reali ty is rather more complicated . As long as there have been political aspirations, people have sought to legitimise them . As a result futurologic al surveys, which are today carried out by a growing number of institutes, are often expected to produce confirmation of the fact that the policymakers have got it right . Study results which do not serve this end 57 run the risk of not being taken seriously. In the best case this leads to `benign neglect': after a brief reading the study and its recommendations are quietly put as ide. If the stakes are higher, it is not uncommon for the reputation of the institute itself, as the bearer of unwelcome tidings, to be placed at issue.

It is within this field of tensions that the WRR has carried out its work for the last i5 years, surveying future trend s. This requires closer examination, in the first place because the WRR was set up precisely to shed light on the unknown and unloved road s to the future ; and in the second pla ce because the ways in which the WRR goes about its futurological studies - its research method s - play a not insignificant role in the imp act of its reports. This paper discusses those method s.

TH E ROLE OF THE WRR IN MAPP I N G OUT T HE FUT UR E

The task of the WRR is to supply scientifically substantiated information on developments in the longer term. This statutory task can be seen as a desirable supplement to the everyday problem s which dominate the prac - tice of policymaking . Although , as stated earlier, policy undoubtedly also incorporates aspirations for the future, a great deal i s determined primarily by the problems of the here and now . Futures research can form a counterweight in this situa tion. Information about the future can help to prevent surprises and can in spire policymakers to anticipatory behaviour . The task imposed by law on the WRR can be seen as the institutionalisation of thi s desired supplementation of mainstream policy. W ISE B EFORE T HE E V EN T

2o/i5 years WRR

In the Council's Establishment Act this supplementary function of the WRR is not only emphasised with regard to the medium and longer term, but also in terms of the substantive breadth of its brief. The Council is expected not only to take the future as its field of activity, but also to devote attention to the `great policy issues' - i.e. those matters which go beyond the domain of a single ministry. The WRR has thus been ch arged with an important early -warning task. It is expected to observe trends which are not yet generally re cognised, as well as to iden tify task s for policy for which the government machine ry is not yet equipped .

A characteristic feature of the wxx 's task is the relatively indeterminat e nature of the domain to be studied . There are many other organisations and in stitutes in the Netherland s actively concerned with the future . In most c ases, however, these institutes have a more clearly defined tas k which at the very least gives an indication of the type of futures researc h needed . For example , inter sectoral and sectoral planning agencie s have the task of keeping the government or respon sible minister informed on a regular basis regarding developments in particular fields . This restriction to a particular area or specific time horizon , as well as a more or less specified policy issue on which to focus , helps these institutions in developing a specific approach to the future s research undertaken. Table i shows that, in the Dutch landscape of official planning agencies , a number of issues can be identified which offer a framework for the type of research undertaken in each case.

The WRR does not have such a framework . The Council 's position and brief mean that the policy question - if thi s exists at all - is itself the object of study. Moreover, the field studied generally does not coincide with the existing policy frameworks, whi ch define their own information require - ments. As a result, the research largely has to define the inform ation requirement itself. The time horizon is also not fixed : the law charges the WRR precisely with the task of looking beyond the timeframe whi ch is the focus of mainstream poli cy preparation . The result is that the WRR is forced to decide on the be st type of futures research on a case by case basis. A TO RULE A ND TO FORESEE

TABLE 1 The futures research c arr i ed out by Dut c h plann in g offices and its envisaged u s e, compared with the WR R

Institute Types of research Used fo r

CBS ga t he r in g in fo rmatio n and ca rryi ng out ge n e r a l sou r ce o f information for trend extrapo l ations of de mographic, policy p re paratio n econom i c an d soci a l i n d icat ors

CPB econome tric short-, medium- a n d lo ng - g ene ral sou rce of information ( policy term proj e ct ions; lo ng-ter m survey s p re p a ra tion , in vest ment) ; eva l u ation of pol icy pl an s

59 RIVM mix of predictions and surveys in the s upport for envi ronm e n tal policy fields of the environment and public pl ans a n d public h ea lth p la ns health

RP D projections and spec ul at i ons I n the co-ordination of spatial p lannin g in fie ld of spa t ia l p la n ni n g go ve rnm en t p la ns

SC P trend extra po lations o f socia l an d allocatio n o f reso u rc e s to t he publ i c cultural facto rs a nd d e vel opmen t s ; secto r form ulatio n of po lic y alternatives

WRR g ene ral, th ematic and po l icy su rveys general source of (policy) of futu re developmen ts Information ; stimulation of the public debate ces = Statistic Netherlands Cae = Central Planning Office RIVM = National Institute of Public Heal th and Environmental Protection Rro = Na tional Spa ti al Planning Agency scP = Social and Cultural Planning Offic e WRR = Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy WI SE B EFO R E T H E EVE N T

20125 1fe0I1 W RR

CHARACTERI S TIC S OF FU T UR ES RE SE AR C H

Futures re search is concerned with a reality whi ch doe s not yet exist. However the results are formulated, they are always constructs rather th an representations of an observable reality. By definition, therefore, the infor - mation offered by futures research lacks a `hard', verifiable basis. Futures research is tantamount to e xploring uncharted territory.

The extrapol ation of possible future development s cannot therefore b e an end in itself. Futures research is not a non-committal, no -s trings-a ttached reflection, but i s an a id to obtaining a more focu sed view of assumptions about the here and now. It can be seen as a thought exer cise which imposes the need to order and cla ssify contempora ry re ality : in terms of relevan ce, 60 as passe/outdated or a s promising lasting. While such a system of order - ing is always present , future projections often remain diffuse and impli cit, or else are seen as so obviou s that further research into them is regarded as unneces sary. Futures research make s expectations explicit and ties them to scientific knowledge. The function of this thought exercise has to do with the present day; the future perspective can - a s a sensitising concept - lead to a different view of empirical r eality, and thus to a reorientation o f action . Its scope can vary widely, from a review of inputs to a reformulat - ion of targets .

Since futures research is a construct, it is open to the use of a variety of theoreti cal frameworks, relating both to the content and the method of the research . Both the con tinuity and the discontinuity between the pa st, present and future can be emphasi sed. Naturally, the framework u sed is commonly subject to valu e judgements (a rise or decline in the case of continuity, or, for example , `eracentrism ' in the case of discontinuity : we are `now' on the threshold of a new era) .

The orientation of the WRR towards the longer term makes it necessary to place question marks alongside mainstream thinking and actions . Is an assumed continuity or discontinuity really so obvious as it seems? Will a given development which is seen as `hard' in fact (be able to) continue unchanged in the longer term? Are the factors on which this trend is based as robust as is assumed? Might this not be a case of wishful thinking? What can we be sure of in the longer term, and where is science found wanting? Which potentially important factors are trivialised? Are the A TO RUL E AND TO FOR E S E E

policy structures sustainable if trend-breaks s hould occur? What other goals might different possible developments throw up?

These are not innocent ques tions. The `demands' of the future are after all gratefully seized upon as a basis for politic al legitimisation . What one person sees as essential demands, however, may be seen as undesirable by another. As long as futures research proffers inform ation which comple- ments mainstream knowledge and existing policy propo sals, it will be seen as a welcome support. That which does not con cur with conventional wisdom, however, run s the risk of being sidelined by politician s and government. It is however inherent in the task of the WRR that reference should b e made to , for example , the subjective nature of apparently objective facts, and the speculative nature of wh at is regarded as prediction . But 16i a futurological study does not only h ave an influen ce in qu alifying the status quo; it can also play a con structive role, by focusing attention on new po ssibilities, both for science and policy. One condition here i s that the research charts both opportunities and threats in a traceable way. Those carrying out thi s research have several very different methods at their disposal for thi s.

WH AT A R E T H E VARIOUS TYPES OF FUTU R ES RESEARCH ?

The literature contains several different classifications of types of futures research. One useable model i s the classification based on knowledge about the system and the uncertainty inherent in the av ailable material (Becker and De Wulf, 1989). This produce s four types of futurological research, as presented in figure i . WI SE BEFORE T H E EVE N T

zo/z s years WRR

"a chance that " " what-ifl "

Predictions Explorations "systematic re s ear ch"

causality

Projections Spec ulat ions " d e d uct ive resea r c h " 6z

uncertainty

FIGURE 7 Typo logy of futu r es research . Where there are major uncertainties in data and m ode ls, o nly questions o f th e 'what if ty pe c an be answe red. if the uncertainties are s mall, the li keli h ood o f a futu re developm ent can be expre ssed as a pro bability. If the causality of the m odels used is c lear, then more sys tematic research is possible. if caus a li ty is la cki ng , h owever, only d e du cti ve methods c an be u sed, form i ng a basis for proj e ctio ns o r speculations about the futu re.

The primary purpose of predictions and projections is to indicate the probabilities of a system . Explorations and speculations, by contrast, focus mainly on making visible uncertainties in a system which contains many unknown factors . Together with these uncertainties, possible future developments are also identified . This is the opposition represented on the hori- zontal axis . The vertical axis portrays a different distinction . Predictions and explorations both assume a reasonable amount of knowledge about aspects of the system both now and in the future . Projections and speculations, on the other hand, assume a much smaller knowledge of that system, so that explicit assumptions are necessary in order to enable statements to be made . The characteristics of the four types of research identified here are portrayed in table z . A TO RULE A ND TO FORESE E

TABLE 2 The characteristics of four different types of fuwres researc h

Predictions ca lc u la ti ng the proba b i lity of a g ive n d ev elo p men t

Explorations out l ini ng a p ossi bl e deve lopm ent

Projections in dicat ing, on th e basis of assumption s, t he probab ility of a given devel opm ent

Speculations out l ini ng, on th e basis of assumptio ns , a poss i ble de vel op men t

Many methodological di scussions on futurological re search concentrate on 163 the boundaries between the four research type s. What is a ssumed by on e researcher to be generally ac cepted may be conte sted by another. There are also different idea s regarding the degree of sy stem knowledge which can be assumed to be generally known . In futures research in support of policy it is important that this discus sion should not be left purely to researcher s. The precise formulation of the (pol icy) question also has a major influence on the method to be used . Is there a genuine interest in a ssessing the probability of a given development, or are we really in sear ch of informa- donabout po ssible options, and why?

The task assigned to the WRR encompasses all possible types of research question. Consequen tly, future s research is not a routine matter for the WRR, but demands a continuous and careful asses sment of the problem definition and the choice of the mo st suitable methodology . For example , predictions are valuable in indica ting expected developments in the shorter term resulting from a given policy development . Explora tions provide support in a discus sion where the objectives of the poli cy to be pursued have to be specified more precisely . Projection s give the policy - maker a feel for the longer-term effec ts of current or propo sed policy in an environment which cannot be defined precisely. Speculations, finally, can help policymakers in deciding on focus areas for the policy. By its nature, the WRR has no dominant method for researching future developments . One permanent component in all the Council 's work is however an extensive analysis of the problem in question. More than anything el se this enables a choice to be made for the most adequate method of future s research . WI SE B EFORE T H E E V E N T

20/25 years WRR

THE I N T ERFA CE B ET WE E N POLI CY AND SC I EN C E

In practice, analysis of the relevant policy question is closely tied in with the analysis scheme used where the relationship between policy and science is at issue. According to Habermas (1968), two extremes and a central position can be distinguished here, as shown in figure 2 .

FIGURE 2 The relati onsh ips between policy and sci en ce accordi ng to Haberma s

In the Technocratic analysis scheme , `desire ' is governed by `ability' . The main goal ofscience i s to boost the performan ce capacity of human beings, to increase their ab ility'. The main purpose of policy is then to tr anslate this `ability' into reality. From thi s perspective policy is subordinate to technique . Many futurological studie s which are r eported in journals such as The Futurist and Futures show signs of this technocratic approach , with researchers concentrating on'autonomous technical development', from which they attempt to deduce what the future has in store.

Preci sely the oppo site mechanism is at work in the Decisionistic a nalys is scheme . Here , `ability ' is governed by `de sire'. The main task of policy is to articulate the wishes of society . The se wi shes serve as the starting point for scientific research, whi ch must be de signed to turn the expre ssed wi she s of society into reality . A good deal of main stream re search in which needs forecasts are e stablished is of this nature ; examples include the determina - A TO RU LE AND TO FOR ES E E

don of the future demand for housing and the required capacity of motor- ways.

The intermediate category reflects the interaction between the other two domains. There is no clear hierarchy here. Desire and ability influence each other continually, without there being a preference for one or th e other. Political wishes cannot be separated from knowledge about po ssible developments, and science also develops under the influence of what is desirable for society. This con stitutes an additional task for future s research based on the Pragmatic scheme : a clear distinction must be made in the research between desire (the normative/political, subjective aspect s) and ability (the technical/scientific, objective aspects).

165 Another approach can al so make clear tha t norm a tive /pol irical aspect s must be clearly distinguished from objective /scientific a spects. Silvio Funtowicz and Jerry Ravetz have made clear in a series of publication s that present- day scientific re search is in danger of sinking beneath the weight of its own preten sions and the expe ctations of society. Particul arly where major ve sted intere sts are involved with the outcome of the re search, there is a tendency to mix scientific work with political desirability. For example , the author s cite awell -lff►own article by W.D . Nordhaus in which the economic effects of the increa sed greenhou se effect are calculated . The article contains a table showing a series of indi cators whose outcomes vary from hyper-precision (effect on national income of -0.26%), to a complete shot in the dark (effect on fore stry, fishery and other domains , slightly + or -). And yet this material i s used as a basis for the conclusion that climate change produces a combination of losses and gains without any significant net economic damage .

According to Funtowicz and Ravetz, this article is an example of a widespread practice . Quasi -scientific arguments are used all too freely to support a normatively charged conclusion (Funtowicz & Ravetz, 1994). In an earlier publication the same authors attempt to lay bare the underlying mechanism (Funtowicz & Ravetz, i99i). This is illustrated here in figure 3 . WI SE BEFORE T H E EVE N T

: 0/2 5 years was

'post-normal ' science

'expert' science interest

'normal' science 66

unc e rta inty - - - p

FIGURE 3 Cla ssifi ca tio n of scientific research on the bas i s of th e degree of uncertainty and th e s ize o f the interest wh ich is influenced by the outcome o f that research

Normal scientific activity involves the solving of puzzle s in accordance with agreed rules and under a system of qualit y control which is guaran - teed by colleagues ('peer review'). This process was once described by Kuhn as normal science. The uncertaintie s involved in thi s process can be accommod ated by the scientific method. The outcome of thi s scientific activity is not irrelevant , but also does not have a direct influence on the greater intere sts of society. The progres s of science and the increa singly strong bond between science and policy did however gradually lead to these great interests becoming in creasingly dependent on scientific research . Because these intere sts were not s imply and unquestioningly entrusted to the scientific elite , the phenomenon `expert' aro se. An expert is someone who ha s demonstrated within his/her scientific field that he/she have the quality required and can be entrusted with problems w ith far-reaching consequences . The emergence of ever greater problem s hedged in by ever greater uncertainties and involving ever greater intere sts (such as the glob al environmental problems) goes too far even for the ex - pert, however. Initially this is because experts begin to oppo se each other (contra-expertise) but, at a later st age, because statements from experts are no longer accepted. We are then in the domain ofpost-normal scien ce. The interests have become so great that experts no longer have the authority to A T O RU L E AND T O FORE S E E

carry sway. There is no longer a clearly defined method available, nor a clear quality judgement . The mores ofnormal science no longer provide the answers .

Virtually all questions with which the WRR is confronted can be ranged in this latter category . As a result the se questions cannot be answered deci - sively by scientific arguments alone . Scientific information must be u sed to provide an in sight into the problem con cerned, for example by drawing a clear distinction between the normative is sues referred to e arlier and that which the present status of science can teach us . This prevents the political cart getting ahead of the scientific horse and enable s the relationship between science and policy to rem ain clear.

67 The central plank of normal science is 'knowing' . If the method is use d correc tly it leads to an increase in common knowledge. In futures research into the `great policy issues', the uncertainty is so manifestly present (and the interests so clearly definable) that any attempt to `know' the future is impossible . What is possible, however, is that the future can be explored . This exploration implie s a clear analytical distinction between (objecti- vised) context and normative `goal de clarations'.

THE ART OF EXP LORIN G

When exploring the future, the researcher has a wide range of options . This is partly inherent in the method of future s research employed: are speculative, projective, predictive or explorative methods used? On the other hand, the use to be made of the re sults, the type ofstatement the research is expected to produ ce, also plays an important role. In this respect there are three key notions relating to future s research, namely probability, plausibility and fea sibility.

If the aim is to chart probabilities, predictions and projection s are the tools available to the researcher. Probability is a scientific term from the field of statistics . Use of this notion leads to statements relating to expectations concerning the nature and direction of future developments . It is an accepted concept from normal science - which also means that its use in a future exploration as a supporting instrument for policy mu st be viewed with the necessary sceptic ism. There is after all a danger of following Nordhaus in stepping all too e asily from accepted scientific u sage to doubtful applications in situations of great uncertainty. W ISE BEFORE TH E E V E N T

2 0 /I5 years WRR

The most widely u sed concept is therefore that of plau sibility . T his does not mean the likelihood th at a development will take place, but the plau si- bili ty of th at development . It is thus a `pre- scientific' term whi ch i s used mainly by the experts . Statements about plausibili ty cannot be substan- uatedu sing scienti fic arguments alone, but by definition carry a subjective charge . Plau sibility is used in all methods of future s research . It is not so much used in the methods them selves, but rather where argumenta tion ha s to be provided to substantiate the selection of parameters de emed rele - vant . Many variants or bandwidths in future s re search are justified by using the plau sibility argument . The re sult i s the creati on of a relatively opaque m ix ofobje ctive /scienrific and subjective a spects which i s difficult to interpret .

68 The third key concept , feasibility , seeks to devote explicit attention to the difference s between objectifiable technical/scientific issues and subjective judgements . The use of this term leads to statements about the boundaries of various future developments. It is not the development itself which is the fo cus of attention, but the boundarie s or parameters of that development, both on the scientific and normative fronts . Speculation and exploration are the method s which fit in mo st closely with statements of this kind.

Policymakers exert almo st continuous pressure to produce recommendations which are formulated in term s of probabilities. As stated earlier, these are probabili ties of a particular kind, i.e. which closely match the prevailing views about desirable developments . Futurologi sts are not alway s insensitive to this pre ssure, as is evident from the definition given by Van der Staal of the goal of futures research. In his view, that research i s designed `to reduce the uncertainty regarding future developments' (Van der Staal, 1988) . This preoccupation can indeed be recognised in much policy-oriented future re search. In the most extreme c ases this can lead to predictions or scenarios in which context and poli cy become completely merged. In futures research of thi s nature, the policy response to potential developments i s built in in advance . In this way the future becom es a closed book which meets the wishes of the policymaker at thi s point in time, instead ofinformation being supplied on possible reactions to potentially occurring developments.

One way of avoiding thi s trap is to make explicitly visible the degree s of freedom which one has with regard to the future. One way of doing this is A TO RU LE AND TO FORESE E

to range different policy options along side each other as `action perspectives' . In the research this leads to an analytical distinction between envi - ronmentalvariable s and controlling variable s which policy can (or would like to) influence. This necessitates an in- depth analysis of the relationsh ip between the environment or context and th e policy objectives . The art of futures research consists in the adequ ate and creative handling of this somewh at arbitrary distinction.

The characteristic feature of the future s research carried out by the WRR can be deduced from the foregoing an alysis. It is always based on a pragmatic analysis scheme . This scheme is elaborated by carrying out an in - depth analysis of the context (the `ability') and a closer analy sis of the relevant policy objectives (the `desire'). Precisely where and how the emphase s 16g are placed varie s, though h ere too a certain pattern can be discerned.

D IFFERE N T P RACTICE S

The way in which the WRR has set about acquitting its task over the last 2 5 years in providing information on future developments which are of importance for government poli cy can be broken down into the following four categorie s: i general future explorations ; z policy-specific future explorations; 3 thematic explorations ; 4 explorations of policy domains. Although no strict boundaries can be drawn between these categorie s, this subdivision does give an idea of the different type s of reports which the Council ha s published .

Generally speaking, both the general future exploration s and the them atic future explorations focus chiefly on policy as the primary object of study. In the c ase of policy-specific future explorations and policy explora tions, it is the policy to be pur sued which is that focus. General and policy -specific future explorations are concerned mainly with the future itselfand thus have an informative character . Thematic future explorations and policy explorations are con centrated on the policy and its context and therefore generally re sult in a more `concrete' report. This categorisation is repro- duced in table 3 . WI SE BEFORE T H E EVE N T

20/2S years WRR

TABLE 3 Differe nt reports from th e WRR , arrang ed by prim a ry o bject of study

future policy

context General future explorations : Th ematic futur e explor ations: of the poli cy • The n ext twenty-five years (1 977) • S cope for grow th (198 7 ) • Gro un d fo r ch oice s (1992 ) • El d e rly fo r t h e el d erly (1993)

• Sustai n ed ris ks (1994) • Social d ich otomy in pe rs p ect ive

(1996 )

objectives Policy-specific futu re explorations: Policy explorations: 70 of the poli c y • A broaden i ng of pers pective • D o we ma ke work o u r business? (1983) (1977) • On social inequality (1977) • Ethnic minorities (1979 ) • Industry in the Netherlands: its plac e and future (198o) • A reappraisal of w elfare policy (1982) • A coherent media policy (1982) • Safeguarding social security (1985) • Immigrant policy (1989 ) • Work in perspective (iggo) • Higher education in stages (1995) • From sharing to earning (1997)

General future explorations Only one report has been produced in thi s category . Th e next twenty-five years (De komende vijfentwintig jaar, 1977) was in many respects experi - mental in nature . The newly founded WRR had no acces s to a re ady-made , acknowledged methodology. It did however have a recent interna tional example in a long-term survey, in The Limits to Growth by C .S . Meadow s (197 2) . The WRR's ambitions went further, however : the pretension wa s to provide substantial criticism of thi s report to the Club of Rome, focu sing on its partial nature . initially, therefore, the term `integral future eacplora - tion ' was u sed , encompassing not only demographic , economic and envi - ronmental factors , but al so involving an examination of social and administrative developments . A 7 0 R ULE AND TO F ORE SE E

Experts in all the se fields were brought together to m ap out the future of the Netherlands in an iterative working method . Their activities were steered by a number of`assumption s for a surprise-free future exploration ' which had been drawn up by the WRR; from a methodologic al perspective these were in fact prediction s. This starting point of continui ty was chosen in order to en sure that the survey was free of `wishful thinking' and based on wha t we 'know' . The cho ice of a predictive method created many problems for the study, however, both during and a fter the work. The social climate in the 1970s was anything but m arked by continuity . The turbulent climate was translated both politically and scientifically into uncerta inty about wh at could be regarded a s probable or plau sible. Right from the beginning the compilers of the report wrestled with the boundary between the probable and the improb able, the possible and the desirable, the objective and the subjective. The original pretension of offering an insight into th e probable future of the Netherl ands accordingly proved unsustainable ; the end product consisted of two future scenarios which have more the features of an exploration than of a sort of upper and lower limit ofthe probable d evelopments. The variants were formed from a mixture of prob ability, plausibility and normative judgements.

Policy-specific future explorations The WRR has only one example in th is category as well. In Een verruirning van perspectief(A broadening of perspective, 1983 ; not available in English), the predictive approach wa s swapped for an explorator y method. This also me ant that the basic prin ciple of freedom from surprise was abandoned. In its place, the wishes ofsociety and politicians were taken as a new basis. By seeking alignment with topics which were recognisable in the political debate, it was felt the survey would be come more useable . The idea was that this would enable a much sharper distinct-ion to be drawn between normative and objective judgements. The exploration of the implications of the various normative views meant a framework wa s needed which wa s as `hard' as possible . In many model-based, predictive approaches to the future , behavioural rel ationships are assumed to rem ain constant. Howev er, political views can have far-reaching con sequences for the structuring of the system and the beh aviour of the player s within it. If we are to obtain an insight into those consequences, we are forced to abandon the principle of constant behavioural relationships. In order to obtain `hard' calibration points , models were developed which contained as few hypotheses as possible con cerning behaviour which was affected by W ISE BEFORE T H E E V E N T

2 02 5 years WRR

political views. This approach was totally at odds with standard model practice, which sought r ather to enhance the predictive power of the existing models through further refinement. Many reactions from poli cy- makers expressed a need for predictions regarding the future . Given the need for legitimisation of government action referred to earlier, such a need to know the `demands' of the future is not surprising.

Thematic future explorations Reports of this type are ch aracterised by their study of the relevant context for a p articular policy doma in. They attempt to outline the future scope for particular developments and to list the certainties and uncertainties . The chief aim s of the se analyses is to bro aden the theme, so as to do ju stice to the statutory task of the WRR aimed at throwing light on the `great policy issues'. Against this background, a number of policy alternatives can then be formul ated, often in the form of scenarios.

Thi s category contains a numb er ofstudi es in whi ch the cont ext of a poli cy domain is examined u sing a variety of meth ods . In the report Scopefo r growth (Ruimte voor groei, 1987), for example, alignm ent is sought with the exploratory method s used in the policy-s peci fic future exploration, though with a dr astically re stricted field of focus. Th e restriction to the dom ain of economy and environment made it po ssible to draw a di stinc- tion between normative preferences and objective facts without having to develop a comprehensive political vision . Thi s appro ach was developed further in Ground for choices (Grond voor keuzen, 1992) a nd appli ed to the problem of future land use. The stri ct separation of opinions and fa cts enabled attention to b e focused on the non -committal wa y in which views regarding the de si red policy are de alt with . The el aboration of the conse- qu ences of those view s made it po ssible to p erform a sharp analy sis of curr ent political dilemmas. By poi nting out the irre concilabilit y of the many preva iling wi shes, wh ile at the same time s howing what th eoretical scope exists with in thi s theme, it was possible to focu s attention on th e political d imen sion of the policy problem .

The report Ouderen voor ouderen (Elderly for the elderly, 1993; not available in English) describes the context in a very different way . There is no broad model-based analysis here, but rather a number of targeted trend analyses and predictions. In order to demonstrate the complexity of the funding of provisions for the elderly, a large number of adjacent domains were studied . The combination of these predictions sheds light on the A TO RULE A ND TO FORESE E

blind spots in th e prevailing poli cy. Here again the study of the context served to pla ce the question of the b asic assumptions (or initial notions) of a policy domain on the t able for discu ssion. Ultimately a thematic exploration such as thi s leads to the generation of new option s or perspectives for the policy, rather than to actual implementable policy proposals . They are more the preserve of the n ext category.

Policy explorations In this final category the analysis is focused on a clearly defined poli cy domain . Breadth is added here by studying the dynamics, by studying the recent past and by extrapolation to the future . This create s a more general assessment of the policy domain , with the developments over time form - ing the exploratory aspect. Explorations of this type can be seen as a n analy sis of the policy system to test for sensitivity to possible changes over 73 time. A policy exploration a ims at describing the expected future within a given policy field, generally with the help of predictions and projection s. The outcome of the study is therefore gener ally to bring that policy `up to date' in the form ofa series of proposals for improv ement or adaptation . These propo sals take more account of the potential dynamics of the policy domain than is u sual. If scenarios are formulated at all , this takes place in the form of policy scenarios and not , as so often , broader contextual scenarios .

It is impossible to discuss the many reports in this category here; given the limited space, one ex ample will have to suffice . In Industry in the Nether- lands: itsplace andfuture (Plaats en toekomst van de Nederlandse industrie, i98o), the authors argue the de sirability of a highly inten sified sectoral structure policy. This view was obtained after an in -depth study of the development of the Dutch economy in an international perspective, and a projection of that development in the medium-term future . The resultant worrying performance and prospects were then confronted with the tech - nical and economic perspectives in a range of sectors in the medium term. In order to achieve the poten tials which arose from the se explorations, a policy proposal was developed consisting of a combination of generic socio -economic policy and sectoral structure policy . The starting point in the report Ethnic minorities ('Etnische minderheden', 1979) was also a worrying picture, in thi s case the situation regarding minorities. Given the observed dynamics in various aspects of their position, it was unrealistic to expect that the future would become more ro sy `on its own'. The `updating' of policy here w as sought primarily in (policy) acceptance of the WI SE BEFORE T H E EVE N T

5 02 5 ff Mlf WRR

permanent residence of minorities in the Netherlands. A similar approach was used in the later report Immigrant policy (Allochtonenbeleid , 1989)• Factual developments indicate that the Netherlands has defacto become an immigration country. Acknowledgement of this fact could free the way for a policy which is focu sed much more strongly than in the p ast on integration. The s ame line is followed in the report From sharing to earning (Van verdelen naar verdienen, 1997) . Growth in the demands on the social security system as a result of future demographic and economic developments create a need for a radical policy change . The report e xplores some of the options for this and m akes a number of propo sals based on their pros and cons.

T hi s brief summary cl arifies the approach : the dynamics in the poli cy 74 system studied are confronted with clearly observable tendencies in th e determinant factors for the field in question, whil st taking into accoun t existing uncertainties . This working method enables attention to b e focused on assumptions which often play a major par t in the structuring o f policy, but whi ch may on closer examination turn out to be outmoded o r at least open to discussion . The ba sis for policy recommendations is sue d by the Council then generally lies in a different weighing of the se fa ctors .

DE L AY ED METHODOLOGI C AL R E FL EC T I O N

In the past the WRR has sometimes been accused of failing to perform a methodological reflection of its own work . This criticism has come above all from the world of futures research . The underlying reason for a reflection on methods and techniques must be sought chiefly in the fact that they help to shape the discipline of scientific futures research .

The summary presented here of futures research performed by the WRR shows that an unambiguous methodological reflection is not possible . By its very nature the WRR has applied and developed (or helped to develop) a wide variety of methods. The Council's aim here has always been to do all in its power to create a balance between scientific insights and social and political desires . The fact that the clarity demanded by scientific futures research has consequently not been achieved is something which has to be accepted.

This presents a reasonably comprehensive picture of the current situation . Inevitably, however, the further development of knowledge will increase A TO R U L E AND T O F OR ES EE

the `veil of ignorance'. In this situation the formulation of any methodological classification is in some way a denial of the dyn amics of that situation. Moreover, futurological research will always remain an activity which cannot be te sted in a purely scientific sense. There are after all no criteria which can be formulated to falsify hypothe ses about the future . This leads to a continuous adjustment of the working method followed , continually adapting it to the most recent insights and to the demands of the day . The methodological reflection in futurological research i s thus by definition a classification with hindsight, because the future itself will always be an open book. While this may be a less than attractive idea for the world of futures research, for th e work of the WRR it represents a stimulating challenge.

Bibliography

Becker, H . A . & G . De Wulf (eds .) (19 89), Terugl -ij ken op toekomstonde rz oek (Looking back at futures research) ; ISOR, Rijksuniversiteit Utrecht .

Funtowicz , S . O . and J. R . Ravetz (1 994) , `The worth of a songbird : ecological econo - mics as a post-normal science' ; Ecological Economics no . io, pp . 1 97 - 2o7 .

Funtowicz , S. O. & J.R. Ravetz (iggi), `A new scientific methodology for global envi - ronmental issues' ; in : R. Constanza (ed .) Ecological economics : the science and management ofsustainability ; New York, Colombia Universi ty Press .

H ab e rm as, J . (i96 8 ), Technik and Wisse nsch aft als 7deologie'; F r ankfu rt am M ai n , Suhrkamp Verlag .

M eadows, D . (1972), The Limits to Growth; a reportfor the Club of Rome project on the predicam e n t of m a nkind; N ew Yo rk , Univ erse B ooks .

Staal, P. van der (1988), Toekomstonderzoek en wetenschap . Over degrondslagen van wetenschappelijke methoden en technieken van toekomstonderzoek (Futures research and science . On the pri nciples of scientific methods and futures research techniques) ; Doctoral thesis, Delftse Universiteitspers . W ISE BEFORE THE EVEN T

2 0 /2 5 years WR R

EXPERTISE IN DEVELOPMENT P. den Hoed

INTRODU C T I O N

The famous Dutch hi storian s Jan and Annie Romein refer to the nine - teenth century as the century of the state and constitutional law, as so much atten tion had b een devoted to th is topic . If we seek for a po int in our century on which that attention has be come p arti cul arly focused , we soon arrive at `policy' as the key word . From a concept th at stood for circum- spection and was a ssociated with such expressions as `getting down to work with policy' and `for courage, poli cy and fidelity ' it ha s evolved into an indep endent phenomenon . Policy h as be come an `industry' , and indeed on e cutting acro ss all sectors of society . Larg e groups of peopl e take part in the formati on of poli cy, both insi de and outside governm ent .

76 The fact that more and more policy dimensions are distinguished is evident from the growing number of terms involving the word policy : `policy preparation, policy execution and policy implementation' . There is also policy at various levels, namely that of the European Union, that of the municipality and that of the province ; there is overall government policy and also the policies of independent executive agencies . In recent decades we have also become familiar with policy evaluations and policy- impact reports.

This already covers a high proportion of the overall body of policy activity, but leaves out one category. These are the activities that may be designated as policy innovation, a term used here to indicate that the government has during the course of century asked - or at least made it possible for - academic/scientific advisers to bring about policy innovations, ranging from a new system of town and country planning and a new method for calculating economic growth and prosperity to a new system manpower planning.

Th e ty pes and group s of experts c on cerned with policy and innovation are not always the same. The government's need for input i s continually shifting , as is the way in which thi s need is an swer ed. An impre ssion o f tho se shift s is provided below. F irst, however, the development of the advi sory system is examined, as this is likely to reflect the way in which the govern - ment's requir ements have changed . The establis hment of th e WRR itself may be regarded a s an example of a policy innov ation . Thi s is discusse d in the third section . Finally, recent changes el sewhere in the world of external advisory bodie s are ex amined and a number of con clu sions drawn . A T O RULE AND TO FORES E E

R EVI E W OF THE ADVI S ORY S Y S TE M

The role and place o fexternal advice on the overall framework of government policy have been the subject of political debate at variou s points during th e last century. The mo st important year in thi s re spe ct was 1922 , when the Dutch Low er House accepted the Troel stra amendmen t, under which Article 77 his (later Article 87) w as incorporated into the Constitution of the Netherlands. Thi s article provides for the statutory establishment of advisory bodies. On e point of discu ssi on wa s whether there should b e an organic law. On e o f the arguments a gain st such a law ha s always been that advi sor y bodie s cover such a wide rang e of in stitu - tion s th at a law would be come meaningle ss to the point of redundancy (cf. Oud, 1967) . T he Troelstra amendment w as promp ted by the ob serv a- tion that th e government was increasingly drawing on th e servi ces of its own advisory bodies . Where as the se h ad until s hor tly before be en royal commi ssions and th erefore bodie s of an ad hoc nature , the se appeared to be turning into p ermanen t bodie s behind whi ch the go vernment could retreat in its dealing s with Parliament . Alr eady at that time th ere were the Small Bu sin ess Council, the Employment Council and th e Educ ation Coun cil.

T he growth in advisory bod ies wa s also a source of parli ament ary concern in lat er years. T his emerged for example during the p arli amenta ry debate about advisory bodie s in 1934, when there were 74 such organisation s (State Budget , 1934), and in 1957, wh en there were 64 ( Lower Hou se, 1957-1 958)• In 1970 there were e stimated to be over ioo advi sory bodie s, a figure which prompted consultations with the government (Lower House, 1970). And from 1 976 onwards, when the WRR, on the ba sis of an exten - sive survey conducted among all th e a dvisory bodi es , arrived in its report s on the ext ernal advisory bodie s to the c entral government at a figure of around 350 , th e Lower House h as debated the subj ect every few year s. Th e advisory bodie s also formed a re current element in th e reorganisation and review reports of the ig8o s . Mea sures were already being taken to reduce the number from the end of the 1 97os. It therefore come s as no surpris e that the number h as s hown a steady decline since that time, although the actual redu ction s have con sistently lagged b ehind the expectations - in turn prompting proposal s for more rigorous action .

Around 1987 there were some 20o advisory bodies ; in 1994 the figure was down to around ioo, if we accept the figure quoted in the survey WISE BEFOR E TH E E VEN T

20/2 5 years WRR

conducted by the Steer ing Commi ttee to Review the Advisory System. This is, however, a low count; in i99i , the Special Committee on Advisory Body Issues appointed by Parliament arrived at a figure of izo advisory bodies (cf. Lower Hou se, 199 2-1993) • If from this are deducted the advisory bodies at the level of separate if not autonomous government agencies, the total figure in 1994 w as around 45 . These advised on policy and l egislation and included such well known bodies as the So cial and Economic Coun cil, the Education Council, the Health Council and the Sickness Funds Council and al so less well known organisations such as the Nutrition Council, the Banking Council and the National Minorities Policy Advisory and Consultative Structure.

The most r adic al cut in the number of advisory bodie s took pl ace as a re sul t 7$ of the Advi sory Bod ies Framework Act, a law ba sed on the report Raad op maat (Advi ce to Order ) by the De Jong p arliamentary committe e. The report takes issue with th e sluggishness of decision-making in The H agu e, which wa s con sidered to be due in part to the large numb er o f advisory bodies. The poli tical system needed to t ake the helm ag ain , de scribed a s the restoration of political prim acy. T he De J ong comm ittee sough t a solu - tion in (among oth er thing s) a reduction in the numb er of advisory bodies to 14 , one for each government department . T he Fr amework Act lays down that advisory bodie s will henceforth con sist of independent experts , and that th ey exist solely for advice, not consultation ; they are also deeme d to advise the departmental leadership on th e strategy to b e pursued. Although the WRR is also an advisory body it w as left outsi de the review . Thi s wa s done for par tly practical rea son s - the WRR was visited in 19 93 , re sulting in changes - and partly for re ason s based more on p rinciple , in that the Council's re search tasks and its orientation towards the prelimi - nary policy field and the wider context o f policy cannot b e reduced to advising on the propo sed poli cie s of a single min is ter without striking at the very fundament als of the Council itself.

The changing role of advic e Against the background of this reduction in the number of advisory bodies it is understandable th at Parliament considered the growth in policy advice to have at last been brought under control for the first time this century. What Troelstra had aimed at in 192z - namely controlling the gov ernment's requirement for extern al advice - appeared finally to have been realised some 75 years later. A TO RU L E AND TO F ORESE E

The question is whether this is in fact the case. Instead, it would appear that the need for advice now ha s a different, less structural form . A few years ago the Ministry of Finance , for example , arrived at a cautious esti- mate of more than one billion guilder s for the cost of contracted out external advice and expertise . The policy reality i s, therefore, eviden tly approached in a one-sided way, namely that ex ternal advice is provided by advisory bodies only, without re alising that the situation has in fact changed. In other words we are dealing not so much with the scale of the need for external expertise as with its changing nature . On top of that, it is also evident that the Lower House itself has not escaped this change , as maybe seen from the introduction of the institution of parliamentary staff member from the early ig8o s (although this is still on a modest scale in comparison with parliamentary support in other countries) and the organisation of parliamentary enqui ries and scientific investigations by 79 combined commi ttees of totPS and external experts (e.g. the Parliamentar y Committee of Enqu iry into the National A ssistance Act and th e Parliamenta ry Committee of Enquiry on Climate Change) .

The question arises therefore as to whether the perspective should not be broadened and as to whether it should not b e so much a matter of looking at the familiar questions ofwhom the government listens to most - to parliament or, for example, advisory bodies such as the Social and Econ- omic Council (S ER) - but, more importantly, of the continually changing requirements for advice .

Changing requirements If this century i s divided into four par tly overlapping periods and if we distinguish what is new and `special' in the policy advice in each period , we arrive at the following picture , as designated below in key words .

Syntheses. The first period takes in the last decade of the previous century and continues into the 19zos. In this period the focu s was clearly on the improvement of living condi tions. In particular the Pierson/Goeman Borgesius administration is often held up as an example for thi s period . This administra tion introduced a large number of law s in the social field, such as the Compulsory Education Act, the A ccidents Act and the Housing Act (cf. De Beus, 1989 : 93 ff.) . It was an administration of a liberal hue ; the liberals also had a majority in Parliament . This was, however, a social kind of liberalism , which had incorporated collective elements in their political doctrines and was aimed at the promotion of national unity. Kossman WI SE BEFORE T H E E V E N T

20/25 years WRR

(1979 : 23z) regards the entire period a s one in which effort s were made to resolve social conflict s at a higher level and to embra ce all antithe ses, such as the collective and the individual, the changeable and the constant, the factual and the scientific . What the liberals of th at time did - namely the incorporation into their political doctrin es of the state as an actor in social change - also occurred in th e other parties, such as the Roman Catholics and the And-Revolutionaries , albeit with different legitimations, s uch as the guaranteeing of group rights. Furthermore thi s movem ent was not independent of the pull of socialism (which made a relatively late appearance on the scene in th e Netherlands, probably due in part to the laten ess of industrialisation) . In all ca ses efforts were, at the le ast, made to correct the old liberal par a- 8o digm ofstate non -interference. Although the legi slative programme in the Netherlands anticipated that in Brit ain to some extent , the Dutch tended generally to follow developments on the other side of the Channel. The Americans frequently refer to thi s as `the progre ssive era'; in the Netherlands one refer s to politics a imed at social elevation or to ethical policy and in Britain to `new liberalism'. In all cases these tended to be hybrid political theories, in which the individual , the collective and the political were subsumed into the one system (cf. Dudink, 1997) . Reference was made in many area s to social progress such as the struggle ag ainst common disea ses, poverty, illiteracy and backwardness. It was possible to measure the progress statistically, to which end a new agency - the Central Bureau ofStatistics - was established. Society was , in brief, characteri sed as a large -scale laboratory for social and moral improvement . The analysts and commentators of the time who looked into the future were often authors and historian s (Blok, Kernkamp , Verwey, Gorter, Roland Holst) , theologians (Kuyper) , journalists, solicitor s (Troelstra), physicians and `government budget experts ' (Pier son). These were people who, in today's terms, were experts in social change , either as participant or observer (although one would see more adv antage in this than another). If they were not politicians themselves, they often mixed with them , on committees concerned with certain social abuses and in temporary roy al commissions, such as that on unemployment in i9 o9 . To a certain extent these committee s were the successors to the p arliamentar y committee s of enquiry at the end of the nineteenth century. The royal commi ttee on unemployment of i9o9, for example, m ade use of large quantities of data and compared the situation in the Netherlands with that in a number of neighbouring countrie s. There was little requirement to keep the moral A TO RULE AND T O FORESEE

and scientific approaches to scientific problems apart ; there wa s no strict distinction between the `profe ssional' and the amat eur.

Centralisation. The second p eriod ran roughly from the Great Depression in the 1930s until the end of the i 9 5os . This period saw the emergence of a need to separate the a cademically trained professionals of the day from the `amateurs' in the field of the social sciences . It was a period dominated by crisis-control, war and recon struction . This period sees the centralisation of organisational power in many areas , for example in social insurance , public housing, town and country planning, manpower service s and health (the la tter during the Second World War) . Initially the public sector grew strongly , especially with respect to government enterprises, state authorities and the government re search centres 18i (e.g. TNO). Widespread attention was devoted to optimisation, improvements in efficiency and rationalisation, along the line s of production improvements in big industry - as evidenced also by the conferences of the Netherlands Institute for Efficiency (xtv E, established in 1925). The interest in organisational improvement was now directed towards society as a whole. This applied to both the vertical divi sions or `pillarisaaon' in Dutch society and to corporatism. In contrast to what might h ave been expected at first sight - namely s ocial conflicts due to the growing segmentation - the reverse appeared to apply, expressing itself in the consultations between the leadership of the pillar s, where differences in princ iple did not impede the finding of pra ctical solution s to distribution is sues (known as pacification democracy). Numerous corporati st theories were also devel - oped in the 1 93os , generally taking a more moder ate form , where the ultimate leadership continued - after democratic elections - to reside with the appointed political elite (some prefer to refer to a vanguard ; cf. Kossman, 1978: 435-441) • In an organisational s ense more appears to have been achieved than in the preceding period ; in addition the intere st in organisarion became more tightly focused on various l evels (association life, lo cal government) and layers (e.g. research into the perception of condition s of employment and the influence thereof on productivity) . Following the Second World War the system of pillari sation spread further and part of the corporatist ideology was converted into practice in the public -law indu strial organisarion . There was considerable empha sis on leadership by the state; particularly after the war thi s assumed an increasingly administrative significance and was in creasingly compensated for by a sy stem of advice and consultation with social organisations. W ISE BEFORE T H E E V E N T

20/25 years wRR

In this period a scholar involved in politics and administration u sually was concerned with the processing of data . He was an engineer of the social economy and a designer of scien tific model s and systems of socio -economic life . The c ss had by now collected a great deal of statistical material on the population, trade and unemployment ; the data were expanded into econometric models , in which regard the Netherlands achieved a high degree ofsophistication by international standards and built up a major reputation (De Jong, Van Paridon and Passenier, 1988) . The guiding image for the researcher is th at of the engineer. Tinbergen - who provide s a model for this age - speaks of the science of economic engineering (1936) . While moral considerations are not regarded as unimportant , they are treated as subsidiary to scientific investigation, in the interests of purity $2 a nd `genuine' knowledge ; partly a s a result, thi s leads to a gre ater distinction than in the preceding period between the `genuine ' scientific experts in society in general and the politicians who , as viewed from the realms of science , are mainly charged with setting out the political course of action (Boumans , 1 989). During thi s period the foundations a re al so laid for the research in stitutes of the major political parties and for the first council of experts , the Economic Council , established in 1934 . In 1942 - during the German Occupation - Stikker and others prepared the establishment of a Labour Foundation (under the slogan `back to work ' and aim ed at ending the ineffi ciency generated by clas s con flicts !) . Shor tly after the war the Netherlands Central Pl anning Office (CPB) and the Social and E conomic Council (s Ex) appeared on the governmental st age. Apart from the politician and the representative of spe cial intere sts, the third player in the game is the resear cher, model -builder and planner with training in the natural or social scienc es (cf. the 'scientific' selection of population group s for the Dutch North -East Polder and the impact on planning theory of the New Deal poli tics in the United States , ofthe experience with planning in a war economy and - more controver sially - with the multi -year plans in the Soviet Union) .

Short-circuiting . In the third period, which r eached its peak in the 1 970s, the empha sis is not on the commentator or engineer of the social economy but on the 'action intellectual' (c£ Smith, i99i :i22). Considerable attention is devoted to `the quality of life ' (c£ the government policy statement issued by the Cals-Vondeling Admini stration, 1965) . During this period there is also considerable interest in those suffering social deprivatio n (c£ `The War on Poverty' in the us) . Examples in clude the deprived neigh- bourhoods in the big cities and backward regions in the north of the A TO RULE AND T O FORESE E

country and in South Limburg (following the clo sure of the mine s there) ; and considerable attention is also devoted to deprivation in education and access to facilities such as the National Assistance Act, which replaced the Poverty A ct. In all these cases efforts were m ade to achieve greater distri - bution: distribution of equal opportuniti es in education, distribution of economic policy (i.e. the restructuring of South Limburg and the distribution of state authoritie s); the distribution of facilities . Put differently, it i s also about the closing of gaps, such as that between `rich and poor ', between `politics and the citizen' and between management and subordi - nates and, by way of corollary, about the shortening of l ines of communi - cation and bre aking down in stitutional hab its (the `march through the institutions') . At institutional level the system of pillari sation begins to beat a retreat. Hierarchical institutions, such as the State and the Roma n Catholi c Chur ch, are particularly affected. 3 Particular emph asis is placed in this period on' the democratisation of society', both materially (fundamental social rights) and formally : the right to publi c participation, co-determination and so on. Fairly unexpect- edly, in comparison with the preceding pe riod, the stability of political relationships is ruptured and the politic al parties are exposed to competition from extra-parliamentary campa igns and to `action' and pre ssure groups (e.g. the Association ofNational Servicemen and a wide variety of environmental organi sations). Within society the segmentation along ideological lines appear s to be replaced by a d ivision according to socio- economic and politic al/ideological line s (e.g. polarisation between the block of the progre ssive parties and the right-wing parties). The birth - wave sees a rapid expansion in education; the world of academia is confronted for the fir st time by mass-education. By this stage an extensive university infrastructure has evolved which provides the basis for research and advice for the government; there is a need for improving communica- rionbetwe en the univer sity world and the sphere of government (OECD, 1966) . The gap between the two world s is a problem for which arrange - ments have to be m ade. Separate policies are needed in the field of s cience; as in other Western countrie s, a separate minister for s cience policy is appointed in the Netherlands in the early 197os, and science has to be mobilised for purposes ofpolicy support . An infra structure of para- univer sity institutes begins to evolve and there is a rapid expansion of both intern al staffdepartments in government mini stries and in external advisory bodies to the government (partly with a view to channelling social concerns in the variou s areas of government responsibility) . The context in which the researchers and advisors operate is initially still W ISE BEFORE T H E EVE N T

2 0 l2 5 1>ea l'S WRR

divided along the famili ar lines of pill arisation and later - as this begins to weaken - along the lines ofpolitical affiliations and ideologi cal criticism . In due cour se an intern al struggle also ari ses on the part of the scientific advisors concerning the mos t `correct' role : independent experts or engaged advisors (numerous publications were produced in this period concerning the use and mi suse ofscientific data, especially for m ilitary purposes; cf. also the radicalisation of the Association of the Scientific Researchers and the formation of the Federation of A cademic Staff; cf. Molenaar, 1994)•

Limits. During the fourth period the need for advice shifts once again . The central figure now is not the commentator on social developments, the 84 engineer of the social economy or the action-intellectual but the efficienc y expert and consultant . The criticism is now aimed at the notion tha t society can be shaped, the superimposition of planning procedures, th e sluggishness of decision-making (on account of consultative and advisor y structures) and on the burden imposed on industry by legislation an d planning (cf. Geelhoed, 1983) . A large number of operations are conse - quently set up, for example to review government spending ; there is also a widespread debate about the ways in which limits to government can b e laid down, for example by means of `horizon' legislation (i .e . laws with a fixed expiry date) and by structural budgetary norms and zero-base budget - ing . The energy crises of 1973 and 1979 come to play a role similar to the struggle against social deprivation in the reversals of the i96os . The energy crises contribute to an awareness of the limits to economic growth and, b y way of extension, to the limits to the welfare state . Particularly aroun d i98o - the mid-point of this period, which runs until the early 199os -the limits to the welfare state are widely commented on and debated (Va n Doorn and Schuyt, 1978) . Against the background of rising unemployment and falling tax receipts, questions are asked about the role of government , particularly as to whether the government in fact knows what is happen - ing to `its' money, e .g. the high subsidies annually paid to the shipbuildin g and housebuilding industries . This results in broadly based parliamentary enquiries . Later this is extended to the field of social security, where the growth in the volume of employment disability benefits also prompts a fundamental review of the benefit structure . More generally, sustaine d budget deficits result in cuts and plans to contract out tasks that wer e formerly performed in-house or lead to establishment of quasi-auton - omous bodies (e .g. of the employment service) and to privatisation, e .g. of the Land Registry and the PT-r . Plans are also developed to make depart- A TO RU LE AND TO F OR ES EE

mental units more responsible for their own per sonnel and financial management, or what is known as self-management (cf. Ministry of Finance, 1983). Hierarchical relationships are sometimes converted into contractual relationships (i. e. contract management) and - in the case of the relations between the State and the municipalities - into administrative covenants. By way ofextension the municipalities s tart working with product-budgets, so as to provide more effective control over wh at the government deliver s and the cost at which this is done. Private industry's emph asis on its core bu siness is reflected at government al level in a concentration on core tasks. During thi s period the Netherland s Court of Audit (Algemene Reken - kamer) also makes a startwith its efficiency audits. These attract the necessary attention, dealing with such aspects as the financial admini stration of 185 government ministries, the managemen t of independent executive agencies, the statements ofexpenditure on social security orthe implem ent anon of the National Assistance Act. The expansion of the Court of Audit's efficiency audits more or le ss keeps pace with the mea sures taken by the courts and Parli ament, which require government policy to be motivated and wi sh to see tho se motivations a nd the poli cy rules laid down. Generally speaking thi s period sees a marked expansion in visitation rounds and apprai sal and evaluation pro cedures . Not unimpor tant is the fact that many law s now also contain evaluation provisions (i .e. the law must be evaluated at per iodic intervals) and that financial control can in part be automated . Another stimulus for these developments is provided by evaluation departments within the government ministries, the growth in the `marke t' for commer cial and non -commercial research bure aus and the number of people with management training.

What lessons may we draw from this historical survey? i Each period is overtaken by new demands for policy innovation . In the 193 0s there wa s no need for progress to be foreshadowed. The most important innovation perceived at the time related to the ordering of society, or what was later to be referred to as pillarisation and the consultative culture. Similar observations may be made in relation to the social-shaping notion of the i96os in respect of the 198os . z Policy innovation is not confined to `progre ssive' periods but also occurs in 'conservative' period s; indeed, one might say it is concentrated in those periods, as they provide a basis of support for change, e.g. in the 1980s . WIS E B EF OR E THE EVEN T

2025 years WRR

3 In each period, there is a tendency for the selected method of policy- innovation to lead an e xistence of it s own. This applied to the `prophets of progress' in the fir st few decades of the century, the Tinbergen -style econome tric approach of the 193os, the social-shaping concept culminat- ing in comprehen sive planning systems in the i96o s and 1970s and the evaluation systems of the i98o s. The innovations become self-propagat- ing and are politically correct until shown to be otherwise . 4 Democracy is sometimes described as organised mistrust. Correspondingly poli cy-innovation might be defined as organised enthusiasm: an enthusiasm that is under pre ssure to deliver re sults and to show that something can be achieved poli tically.

86 BE T W E EN A UNIVER S I T Y WITHOUT ST UD E NT S AND ST AFF WITHOU T DEPARTM E NTAL OB L I G ATI O N S

One further lesson may also be dr awn . T his i s that intended policy innovations s ometime s take a different cour se from that plann ed; sometimes the results appe ar more unintended th an intended. The descriptions of the variou s pe ri ods provided above a re too general for thi s to be brought out . The point can better be illustrated in term s of the institutional hi story of variou s state institutions . To name a few examples from this and the previous century: • Shortly after the Kingdom of the Netherlands came into being, straight after 1813 , the Court of Audit, which h ad already come into b eing before the Republi c, had not been assigned the task of verifying the legitimacy of government expenditure but wa s regarded a s a kind of Ministry of Finance. Its task was the subject of debate at various later points in history. In the 1 93os, for exampl e, it was asked whether the Court still had a future, given the existence of the Inspectorate of State Finances. • Again at the start of the previou s century, the Coun cil of State (Raad van State) was not conceived as the political and legal conscience of the nation but a s the central body wh ere all the ministers under the leadership of the King could consult in the interests of greater administrative unity (Den Hoed , 1995 : ii8-izo). • The Netherlands Central Planning Office of1945 and the National Agency for the National Plan (the precursor of the pre sent National Spatial Planning Agency, RPD ) were ini tially intended as agencies that would draw up practical plans for the development of`people's welfare' and the allocation of land for v arious functions (Boumans , 19 89)• A TO R UL E AND TO FORESE E

The WRR also underwent a development that dep arted from the original intentions . The Council was originally propo sed as a Council for Pl anning by the De Wolff Committee for Preparatory Re search into the Future Structure of Society. In the event , however, the WRR was not assigned such an all-embracing task, including the co -ordination of the planning agencies . What the Council did become may perhap s best be described as a perman ent ad hoc committee for long-term issue s on a statutory basis (with th e advantage that it did not need to be reappointed for each topic) . It did not become a body at the top of the pyramid of other in stitution s but a separate institution " in the midst of all the other policy and advisory bodies which together make up our system of government", as Prime Minister Biesheuvel put it when the Provisional Council was installed on 20 November 1972. He added that many governments felt the need for such ~ 1$ a body and that the Netherlands wa s ahead of other countries a s we ha d succeeded in assigning a formal pla ce to such a body in our system ; evidently we were less concerned th an other countries about a body that could enter into open debate with the government about is sues of the future and which had a certain degree of freedom to de cide what it was to work on . That openness could also help keep the Council on the right track. Biesheuvel envisaged an interaction : "...the debate generated by the Council 's advisory reports will in turn provide d ata for su cceeding reports and the Coun cil's long-term frameworks."

The thinking in the early ig6o s was not yet in terms of a super planning agency or a kind of permanent ad hoc commi ssion for future i ssues. Before the De Wolff Committee c ame up with the idea in 1970 of what was in fact a superplanning agency,the Working Group drawn from the Government/ Socio-Scientific Council (sw R) Contact Committee came up with the ide a in 1965 of a "brain s trust in which idea s could come to maturity ". This working group wa s the precursor of the committee for preparatory studie s into the future structure ofsociety and also recommended the formation ofsuch a body to the government, although named the Committee for the Development of the Social Structure. The recommendation wa s formally made by the Chairman of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Art and Sciences (KNAW) upon the submission of the working group 's report to the government. The working group define s the function of the brain s trust as that of obtaining a better "view of the totality of social trends , a view on the society of the future " (Report, 1965 : 11). The proposed brains trust had "the ta sk of thinking up relevant policy i ssues" ; in addition it was required, as "its most vital ta sk", to " indicate the obstacles facing WI SH BEFO R E THE EVE N T

20/25 years WRR

policy in the future development of the social structure" (working group's emphasis ; see annex) .

Tho se re spon sible for devi sing the brain s tru st appeared to be thinking in terms of a body along the line s of the institute for Advanced Study i n Princeton . Thi s institute was headed b y Oppenheimer with who m Hofstee - the Chairm an of the SWR, who wa s closely involved in th e background thinking - had been on an OECD committee in 1965 (OECD, 1966) that put forward recommendations concerning th e formation of similar futur es institutes by th e governments of the variou s participatin g countries (see the introduction to this volume) . Such institutes w ere intended as pla ces where outstanding scholar s were exempted fro m $$ teaching commitments (i.e. a university without student s), so that they could jointly dedicate thems elves to investigating fundament al social trends and the way in which these could affect the foundation s of policy.

The term `brains trust' most closely approximated the thinking of the time, i.e. a panel of sharp minds combined with common sense . According to the recommendations the brain s trust should be appointed by the Prime Minister and be embedded within the structure of government so that "civil servant representatives could rely on an academi cally sound and effective organisation of policy-relevance that would also serve as a sound - ing-board for the work" . It was, in short, a matter of both independence and involvement and of both an academic and an applied function , which needed to be carried out by independent profes sors in combination with professionally trained departmental civil servants . In other words the profe ssors were required to investigate the dire ctions in which society wa s heading, wh ile the civil servants could provide more insight into the backgrounds to government poli cy; in this way they would b e able join tly to arrive at the right course . In brief, a course needed to be steered , in which the professors could help, as reflected in the titles of books dating from and about that period : Drift en Koers (Drift and Course) (Den Hollander et. al., i96i) and Politics and the professors (Aaron, 1978) .

These plan s were consistent with the optimi stic expectations in the fir st half of the i 96os that the social sciences would - as a genuine science - be able in due course to indicate the beacon s by which the government should set its course. The Ministry of Culture, Recreation and Social Work (cxM) established in 1 965 as the successor to the Mini stry of Social Work of 1952 already had an official unit at that time for scientifi c research and social A TO RU L E AND T O FO R E S E E

planning, which fulfilled the function of researcher and advi sor for this area of government re sponsibility. This also applied to the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health, where a General Policy Affairs (ABA) director ate was established in 1965 , the terms of reference of which included scientific research into macro -social issues and social planning. The economic department of that directorate had a similar task, but concentrating on economic research and macro -economic issues. The former Min ister of Social Affairs, Veldkamp, hoped that the new institution would provide a counterweight to the power of the directorates-gener al and dir ectorates of which the ministry consisted. This was also one of the reasons why the ABA was given the status of directorate -general upon the reorganisation of 1968 (on which more later), thus providing a counterweight at the same hierarchical level (Den Hoed 97 . , 1 2) [89

At issue among the d epartmental agencie s in question was a combination of scientific independence and dep artmental dependen ce, the handling of preliminary questions and support in the implementation of the government programme . Particularly at the Ministry of So cial Affairs and Health, however, the untenability of the arrangement rapidly came to the fore. The General Policy Affairs Directorate (a Directorate-General after 19 68) and, in particular, its socio-scienrific leg , rapidly came under pr essure after its formation. The fact that this did not happen until later at the Mini stry of Culture, Recreation and Social Work m ay have been related to the fact that welfare policy, as social work became c alled, concentrated in particular on the allocation of subsidies and covered few executive tasks; by nature it already almost amount ed to social planning. Another factor that may have played a role is the fact that the scientifi c task was seen in mode st terms from the beginning, namely as research aimed at increa sing the under - standing of problem-groups or target-groups, s uch as women, the Ambonese, migrants and adole scents, etcetera.

The General Policy Affairs Directorate was reorgani sed and expanded a s early as 19 68 by the addition of executive ta sks, thus integr ating it to a greater extent into th e department . This also happened as from that point on the emphasi s was placed on the supervision and co- ordin ation of the research that the variou s departmental directorates needed in order to underpin their policies. Ultimately this scientific leg of the Mini stry was to be abolished and replaced by a Policy Planning Directorate (i98i) , later succeeded (1988) by a Labour Mark et Directorat e (this partly to prepare for W ISE BEFORE THE EVEN T

20/2 5yean WRR

the Ministry's role in thi s area after the employment service was hived off; cf. Burger, 1993).

The pretension of research into wide -ranging social change and the identification of problems of the future on the b asis of an ind ependent position on the one hand and, on the other, subordination to the government hierarchy was made po ssible by the high expectations with respect to scientific endeavour. This needed to provide a fixed point of reference. Given a conflict between politicians and researchers, the scientific c ommuni ty - including members of that community employed within the govern - ment - would be able to arrive at a re asonable and objective determination as to who wa s right . But preci sely in 1965 - the year in which the M ini stry of curt was formed, General Policy Affairs wa s set up as the s cientifi c leg go of the Ministry of So cial Affair s and the report by the Working Group of the SWR on a brain s trust for future social developments was set up - the context-bound nature of the scientific approach was challenged internationally, particularly within the social sciences: the fact that scientific developments are not divorced from those ofsociety and that the (social) sciences cannot therefore serve as the archimedean po int. It may also be that the members of th e Working Group , most ofwhom were working for the government, relied on the autonomou s decision-making power s of the Dutch political and administrative elite (the criticism of the `regen cy' mentality with, as its complement, the autom atic passivity o fthe voters, had still to get off th e ground at this stage) .

At any event it is, if one looks back, notable that much was written in the 1965 report concerning the tasks and place of the intended brains trust but that no reference whatever was made to its independence . The same applies to the relationship between policy and society . This was a subject taken up by the first chairman of the WRR, Kremers (e .g. in 1972), in virtually all his speeches : the WRR operated at the cutting edge of policy and society and openness is so important on account of the 'corrections coming from society' and in order to `spark off the debate' . The SWR Work- ing Group had been pre-occupied with the question as to how a think-tank could be combined with research of relevance to the government . In itself this was already a new approach . The other elements of openness and guarantees for independence did not yet constitute a breaking point and were added in the years after 1965 . It was not possible to suspect in 1965 that such radical switches would have been made in the second half of the i96os . Certainly this was something to which the WRR owed its compara- A TO RULE AN D TO FORESE E

tively new form . It also owed it to the Royal Decree by which it wa s appointed in provi sional form on 6 November 1972, many rules in which were incorporated in the definitive Act of Establi shment . The lengthy legal preparation me ant that instead of waiting and seeing whether such an institute would be able to survive in prac tice, pressure arose at an early stage to think carefully about the conditions under which such an institution would be able to operate in the Dutch context.

Description s of the history of the WRR often compare the latter organisa- rionwith the Central Policy Review Staff ( cPRS) set up in 1971 by the Prime Minister, Edward Heath, a s a think-tank for the British government . The latter was abolished in 1 983 by Mrs. Thatcher after a number of its advisory reports (e .g. on the reorganisation of the National Health Service) 1 had leaked to the press . CPRS was replaced by a policy unit at io Downing Street (Blackstone, 1983 ; Willets, 1987). Much has been written about the crRS as a combination of independent work within the clo sed corridors of Whitehall (as its advice w as not publi shed). It is not, however, difficult to find parallels . The Dutch history of scien tific research and policy also provides instructive examples of the creation of independent resear ch and advisory agencies that were ul timately abolished or converted into a ministerial polic y unit. The aforementioned ABA unit at the Ministry of Social Affairs ended up as a poli cy planning bureau. It may also be a bit glib to say that a body such as the CPRS was abolished because it was acting too much as a gadfly (it may be too that there is an undu e tendency to regard such an organisarion too much in terms of the i 96os, when counter- weights against the bureaucracy had to be sought within the government itself and not elsewhere , in the market). The assertion that the CPRS was abolished becau se it had been too critical is at any event difficult to cor- roborate since the c Ptts 's adviso ry work wa s not, as noted , published and furthermore wa s not always laid down in writing. It could also be that the work of a think-tank - as the CPRS was generally regarded a s being in the 1970s - does not alway s automatically correspond with the agendas of the minister and departmental officials and may therefore be meaningless in that context . Finally it may be asked whether it is not unavoidable that leaks should occur if independent researchers are asked to develop ideas for future policy and are at the same time subject to strict standards of secrecy. The les son would appear to be that the activities of think tanks and departmental officials ea ch have their own characteristics and rhythms and that they should not be brought into too clo se juxtaposition . WI SE BEFORE T H E EVE N T

5 0/251J[O I5 WR R

In the UK it was ultimately decided to expand the Prime Minister's staff. A unit free of departmental duties such a s a Prime Ministerial staff unit stands at one end of the spectrum; think-tanks, as institutes where `fellows ' are able to study and discuss the major problems of society in full freedom and independence at the other end. In both ca ses little come s of independent policy re search and advice on behalf of government policy - in the latter case because the work does not come under sufficient pressure from the political environment , and in the former ca se because it is under too much pressure .

Tradi tionally , the Netherland s has been wedded to the ide a of a smal l Prime Mini sterial cabinet (KMP) . This has been ba sed on administrative experience , in that a large KMP would arouse undue re sistance amon g 92 departmental officials and damage the position of the Prime Minister . In addition the KMP would then be un abl e properly to fulfil its (partly diplo - matic) co-ordinating function . In addition an e xp an sion of the Prim e Mini ster's department is reje cted on account of th e Dutch political structure ; the Dutch Prime Minister is at the head of coalition cab inets, a fact which has con sequences for hi s freedom of action . In the case of the WR R this condition meant that onc e it had been decided that the path towards a universi ty without students was not to be pur sued, the other conceivabl e po ssibility remained on the table : a WRR as an element of the KMP (in the plans for a WRR c on siderable emphasi s has always been placed on research into interconnection s and the promotion of coherence ; this wa s a parti cu- larly key topic in th e report by the Van Veen committee in 197 1, whi ch altered the name of ` Coun cil for Planning ' as propo sed by the De Wolff commi ttee to the Scienti fic Council for Government Policy). Instead o f strengthening the staff of the Departmen t of General Affairs, a typically Dutch compromise wa s worked out und er the Biesheuvel administration , in that precisely the same coalition relation s that prevent a WRR from being add ed to the P rime Mini ster's staff do permit an independent insti - tute for research and advi ce on government policy to be added to (but no t form part of) the department and for it to oper ate over successive term s of government . Needless to say the government ha s a number of powers with re spect to the WRR, such as the appointment of new members every fiv e years . The composition of the Council does not , however , change eve r y time a new political majority gain s power. A T O RULE AND TO FORE S E E

TOWARD S THE F U T UR E

Reference was made in section two to the pre sent expansion of the advisory system . The market for policy advice is for example growing with the establishment of independent executive bodies, agencies and the like. Services formerly provided by the public service have been turned into enterprises and businesses with their own planning , strategy and communication departments. In addition the government is contracting out part of its advisory activities to independent con sultants. In a number of cases these are former civil servants who have set up on their own account .

The commercialisation on the departmental front corre sponds with developments in social organisations in general . The latter too are concentratin g increasingly on their primary function s. This has manifested itself in the 93 disappearance of overarching structures, the `parliaments' of the variou s sectors and the establishment instead of professional organi sations, especially of employers in the various fields . Examples include the disappearance of the Agriculture Board side by side with the merger of the agricultural and horticultural organisations to form the LTO, and the Association of Entrepreneur s in the Subsidised Sector (vo G) and the Netherlands Institute for Care and Welfare (Nizw), which provide the advice and re search which the government previousl y obtained from the National Council for So cial Welfare (rrxhtw ); the list can be expanded by the health -insurers and entrepreneurs in health care , etc. The framework in terms of whi ch the new organisations operate has in all ca ses shifted from consultation to lobbying.

Finally the empha sis in the 198os on the executive side and on the product and core business of government not only resulted in th e administrative privatisation of executive units but also in the growth of core departments and general governing bodies at top departmental level with a responsibility for formulating the policies in relation to the independent exe cutive units . The privatisation on the executive side has a complement in a growing requirement for departmental strategy. The review of the advisory system , with a single strategic advisory council for each mini stry, has been consistent with this. In this regard reference maybe made to the now departmentally organised standing parliamentary committees and the special parliamentary commi ttees for research topi cs within tho se strategic areas (e .g. for the review of the National Assistance Act or sustainability issues). WIS E BEFORE THE E VENT

20/25 yrnrs wttx

In brief, there are two simult aneous movements: on the one hand an extension of the market for advice and strategy by all sorts of commercial and non- commerci al initiative s and, on the other, the emergence of functional strategic are as. This may sound more incompatible than it is since this extension in fact creates a requirement for comprehensibility and organisation of the sub-markets. The emergence of strategic sector s, such as those for health care, social security and housing, al so has the effect of creating new ones . The WRR cannot be clas sified into strategic areas. The question may therefore be a sked what the role of the WRR can be.

Reference was made at the start of this chapter to the twen tieth century a s the ` century of policy '. We can now go a step further. Policy continued for a long time to be approached in terms of the maker of policy ; policy wa s 94 what the government did and becau se the government made policy , it ha d authority (or pre cisely no authority, because it was the government an d not soci ety , as s ome considered in the i 96os) . It is no longer po ssible to reason along the se line s. Policy is arrived at in communication between a large number of parties ; it ha s become a kind of capital good on the market . And the v alue of that good al so needs to be properly safeguarded . It is precisely in thi s context that the WRR play s a role . It mu st analyse an d assess the value of today 's policie s in terms of tomorrow and report accordingly to the government . Thi s ha s alway s been the Council' s task, and remain s so to this day.

To con clude: in his famous book The End ofIdeology, Daniel Bell did not intend to suggest that ideologies should disappear but that as communism and fa scism had lost their power s ofattraction, ideologies had lost their bearings . In Bell's view the dying out of the old ideologi es would necessarily re sult in the need for new and sometimes no less radical ones . This appeared indeed to happen in the i96os .

Another re sponse to the ` End of Ideologie s' has been th at these should be replaced by science. Intellectual s have pointed to the danger s of either/or reasoning, as though observation and assessment had no part to play in scientific c ircles. In a political culture heavily dominated by science like our own, this could in their view lead to growing confusion : people act a s though it i s just a matter of the facts , whereas the fram es of observation and assessment of the facts that form an inherent although denied part of the reasoning proce ss are equally a s important. The message of the end of ideology has therefore not just aroused positive connotation s, such as the A TO RULE AN D TO FORESEE

disappe arance of totalitarian dictatorships, but also negative ones : increasing confusion in public debate, as it has become necessary to talk in terms of paradigms , while a debate about paradigms is ruled out . A factor that is often ignored or at least not referred to i s that the regulative function that frames of reference have w ith respect to ob servation and the assessment of fa cts may also be opened up to debate and that this work is often characteristic of institutions such a s the WRR (Sch6n,1994)• Whether thi s contributes toward s greater transparency and manageability is of course open to question. What is clear is that the gloomy conclu sion that the public debate can only deteriorate since the frames of observation and a ssessment of the facts are no longer reflected upon certainly need not apply.

Reference s

Aanhangsel Handelingen ; Reply to questions by C .P.M . Romme, submitted z8 February 1957, Lower House, 1957- 1958•

Aaron, Henry J . (1978), Politics and the professors : the Great Society in perspective ; Brookings Institution Studies in Social Economics no . i6, Washington DC .

Bell Daniel (i96o), The End ofldeology, On th e Exhaustion ofPolitical Ideas in the Fames; Glencoe, The Free Pres s.

Bestuurs-organisatie bij de kabinets formatie 1971 (The organisation of government upon the coalition formation in 1971); Report by the Interdepartmental Division of Tasks and Co-ordination Committee (Van Veen Committee), Staatsuitgeverij, The Hague, 1971.

Beus, J .W. de (1989),'De oorsprong en wederkeer v an de liberalen' (The origin and return of the liberal s) ; in: J .W. de Beus et al. (eds) , De ideologi- sche driehoek, Nederlandse politiek in historisch perspectief, Meppel, Boom.

Annex to the report Raad op Maat, Lower House, 199 2'1993 . 21427, no . 29 •

Tessa Blackstone (1983), `The Mayfly that died in No io' ; The Observer, 31 July 1983> p. 8. W ISE BEFORE T H E EVEN T

20/251)COIS WRR

Bouman s, M . (19 89) `De constructie van de samenleving ; Tinbergen en de vroege planning' (The construction of so ciety ; Tinbergen and the e arly planning) ; Beleid en Maa tschappij no . 5, pp . 230-245 .

Letter by the Prime Minister of 20 May 1970, Proceedings of the Lower House ; 10300 , ch. III, General Affairs Budget .

Burger, J .C. (1993), Sociale zaken en Werkgelegenheid (Social Affair s and Employment) ; department al studies no. 5, The Hague, Vuga .

Doorn, J .A.A, van and C .J.M. Schuyt (1978), De stagnerende uerzorgings- taat (The Stagnating Welfare State) ; Meppel etc ., Boom . g6 Dudink , Stefan (1997) , Deugdzaam Liberalisme, Sociaal-liberalisme in Nederland (Worthy Liberalism, Social-Liberalism in the Netherlands , 1870-19oi); Amsterdam , IISG .

Geelhoed L .A. 0983), De interuenierende staat : aanzet voor een instrumen- ten(eer (The interventionist State : first step towards a theory of instruments) ; The Hague, Staatsuitgeverij .

Hoed , Paul den (1972), Onderzoek naar het sociaal- wetenschappelijk onderzoek bij het ministerie van Sociale Zaken (Research into the socio-scientific research at the Mini stry of So cial Affairs) ; Rotterdam (available from th e author) .

Hoed, Paul den (1995) , Bestuur en beleid van binnenuit (Government and policy from within); Amsterdam, Boom.

Holland er, A.N .J. den, E .W. Hofstee, J .A .A. van Doorn, an d E.V .W. Vercruyse (eds .) (i96i), Drift en koers (Drift and course) ; Assen .

Huart, F .J.A .(i925), Grondwetsherziening 191 7 en 1922 (Revision of the Constitution 1 9 17 and 19 22) ; Arnhem, Gouda Quint, pp . 120- 127.

Jong A .H .M . de, C .W.A .M . van Paridon and J . Passenier (1 988), `Jan Tinbergen over zijn jaren op het CPB' (Jan Tinbergen on his years at the CPB) ; Economisch Statistische Berichten, 13-7-1988, pp . 652-657/662 . A TO R ULE A N D TO FO R ESEE

Kossman , E.H. (1978), De Lage Landen 178o-194o; Anderhalue eeuw Nederland en B elgie (The Low Countr ies 1780-1940 ; One and a half centu - ries of the Netherlands and Belgium); Amsterdam/Brussels , Elsevier (4th ed.).

Molen aar, Leo (1994), 'WtJ kunnen het niet aan depolitici ouerlaten ...'; De geschiedenis van hetVerbond van Wetenschappelijke Onderzoekers 1946- j980 ('We can't leave it to the politicians...'; The history of the Association of Scientific Researcher s 1946 - i98o) ; Delft, Uitgeverij Elmar.

OECD (1996), The social sciences and the policies ofgouernments ; Advisory Group on the Social Sciences, Paris .

97 Oud . P.J . (1967), Het constitutioneel recht van hetKoninkrijk derNeder- landen (The constitutional right of the Kingdom of the Netherlands) ; Part 1, second impression, Zwolle, Tjeenk Willink, pp . 478-485 .

`Prof J . Kremers on the tasks of the provisional Council for Government Policy'; SER Documentation Bulletin, December 1972 .

Report by the Committeefor the Preparation of Research into the Future Social Structure; Staatsuitgeverij, The Hague, 1970.

Report by the Working Group from the Government/Social Science Council Contact Committee ; Amsterdam, KNAW, June 19 65.

Romein, Jan and Annie (1940), Erflaters van onze beschaving, Nederlandse gestalten uitzes eeuwen (Testators of our civilisation, Dutch figures from six centuries) ; Part iv, nineteenth century, p . 7 if.

Schon, D .A . and M . Rein (1 994) , Frame reflection: towards the resolution of intractablepolicy controv ersies; New York , Basic Books.

Smith, J.A. (igg i) , The Idea Brokers, Think tanks and the rise of the new policy elite; New York , The Free Pre ss.

State budgetfor the 1934financial year, Upper House, Annex I z .z. (Annex to the Memorandum of Response) . WI SE BEPORE T H E EVE N T

zo/Zs years wrtx

State Committee on Unemployment (1914), Final Report (three parts) ; The Hague, Ter Algemeene Landsdrukkerij .

Survey by the Steering Group on the Reform of the Advisory System ; Ministry of Home Affairs, 1994 .

Tinbergen, J . (1936) , Prae-adviesen voor de Uereeniging voor de Staathuis- houdkunde en Statistiek (Preliminary advice for th e Association of Public Finance and Statistics) ; The Hague, Nijhoff, pp . 62-io8 .

Report of the 24th meeting of the Lower House ; i8 November i8 21 , PP• 556-566 .

98 Uoor de eenheid van 6eleid; Beschouwing tergelegenheid van 5o yaar Ministerie van Algemene Zaken (Towards the uni ty of policy ; Refle ctions on the occasion of the 5oth anniversary of the Ministry of General Affair s) ; compiled by the WRR, The Hague, Staatsuitgeverij, 1987•

Willets, David (1987), `The role of the prime minister's policy unit' ; Public Administration, vol . 65, Winter 1987, PP . 443-454 •

Ze~fbeheer, Heroverwegingsrapport verbetering bedrijfsuoering overheid (Self-management, review report concerning improvement of government administration) ; Ministry of Finance, 1983 . A T O RULE AND TO F OR ESE E

Summary of reports by the Social Science Council (swR)

The prep arations for the creation of an institute for future s research, from which the WRR was in due course to arise, go back to 1963 . At the twelfth meeting of the Government/Socio - Scienrific Council Cont act Committee of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (xrrAw) held o n 8 November 1963 , `the committee endorsed the notion of a general , central institute to assist the government', a 1964 report by the SWR states. The secretary of that committee , Dr. H .M. Jolles , was asked to draw up an initial blueprint for such a body . In his memorandum of z8 Februa ry 1964 he concludes on the basis of a survey and discussions with those concerned that : i a new institute was required, preferably in the form of a Governmen t agency ; 99 z in principle it would be designed to carry out re search on behalf of the policies of all government departments; and 3 the research would at any event concern "the overall , major structural problems facing the Netherlands now and in the future; with as examples the operation of the new education legi slation, the issues of administrative cla ssification, the repercussions of European integration for Dutch society, the implication s ofpopulation growth and population distribution, and the problem s of disadvantaged groups in society. "

There were however still a number of points about which the parties in the SWR Contact Committee were uncert ain or in disagreement . For this reason the Contact Committee decided to set up a Working Group chaired by Dr. J.J. de Jong of the SWR and - after his death - by Dr. R. Wentholt of the General Policy Affair s Directorate (ABA) of the Ministry of Social Affair s and Health , where the secretariat of the working group was also housed . In its draft advice to the SWR (May 1965) the working group proposed the establishment of a Commis sion into the Future Structure of Society, to be appointed by the Prime Mini ster. The commi ssion's terms of reference were set out as follow s :

a to analyse the interplay of forces such as technological development, industrialisation, urbanisation, population growth, the growth in prosperity and the changes in the social values and norms that determine social development and are inherent in the analysis of the social developments that are subject to these forces, both as an interrelated whole and in terms of their mutual interaction, with a view to arriving at a template of developmental paths and at a WI SE BEFORE T H E EVE N T

20/25 years WRR

picture of the future social structure, with which government policy can take account in the various sectors . b designing a co-ordinated approach towards social research in order to arrive at an overall picture of the future structure of society and to issue advisor y reports concerning the research topics . c reporting to the government on the basis of studies and research. These terms of reference are based around the notion that the Commission should not be by way of a n interdisciplinary steer i ng committee for social research but a brains trust in which ideas could come to fruition .

This standpoint continued to be adopted in the final report (June 1965) , except that the aspirations with re spect to a co -ordinated approach toward s social research were watered down to a ioo stimulatory task in the field of re search; this was done in re sponse to comment s by the SWR (prepared by Dr . E.W. Hofstee) on the report by the working group , in which concern was expressed th at the research at fundamental level woul d be rendered subordinate to the government and so not b e independent. Partly on the basi s of these comments, the working group restricted the tasks of the new commi ssion to `science on behalf of policy' and deleted the element relating to the co-ordination of fundamental scientific research. In addition the intervention of the SWR led to an emphasis on the independence of the pro spective commission .

In its final report the working group noted that it saw the task of the Commission as being that of reflection, stimulation and communication . In the words of the working group :

The Working Group regards the most vital element of the Commission's terms of reference as the identification, in two-way communication between the government and the scientific community and between policy and research, of problems of relevancefor policy and the obstacles facing policy in the future development of the social structure . For the effec ti ve performance of its task the Commission will need to be able to draw on studies carried out by itself (by its secretariat) or elsewhere . In addition it will form part of the Commission's activities to encourage an effec ti ve approach towards macro-economic research with a view to deepening insight into social developments . As well as identifying specific problem issues and obstacles , the Commission will therefore produce advisory repo rts on research topics . A TO RULE A ND TO FORESEE

On the basis of this report the xrr.aw advised the governm ent in 1966 to set up the aforementioned futures commi ssion, albeit known as the Commi ssion for Preparatory Studies into the Future Structure of Society. As is known, this Commission, chaired by the e conomist Dr. P. de Wolff (a member of the SWR/KNAW), issued its report to the governm ent in 1970. The report re commended that the government appoint a Council for Planning, coming under the Prime Minister 's Department . The Inter- Departmental Task-Sharing and Co -ordination Commission (the Van Veen Commission), which repeated this recommendation in its advice submitted at the time of the co alition formation in 1971, subsequently changed the name to the le ss-flown `Scientific Council for Government Policy '.

ioi Compiled by H.von K~nprn - -~ liEiir@IN SEADCH OF THE IMPOSSIBLE - THINK TANKS THRQUG PROBLEM-ORIEWTEDAND CONTEXTUAL - LITERATURE ON THINK TANKS'

25 YEhRL OF WRk PUBLICATIONS . . ' - .:. ., .$ FUNCTIONS AN'D eOM@051TIONOF T+4EtOUNClL AMD SUREAU

ESTABLI.SW.M,~NTACT WRR B SURVEYS

IN SEARCH OF THE IMPOSSIBLE - THINK TANKS THROUGHOUT THE WORL D

INTRODU CT IO N

Definition The following definition of think tanks comes closest to reality (McGann , 1995 : 30-31):

Public policy research institutions are non - profit, non-governmental organizations that generate policy-o riented research, ideas, analysis, and formulations on domestic and international issues . For the most part, these organizations are not affiliated with academic institutions and do not grant degrees . A substantial portion of the financial and human resources of these institutions is devoted to commissioning and publishing research and policy analysis in the socia l sciences, economics, po litical science, public administration and international X05 affairs . The major outpu ts of these organizations are book s, monograp hs , reports, policy briefings and informal discussions with policy makers an d gove rnment officials . In addi tion, these institu tions often act as a b ridge between the academic and policy communities, transla ting applied and basic research into a language and form that meets the needs of busy policymakers .

This definition, with all its qualifications, indicates how difficult it is to delineate the population of think tanks. And yet in practice they are gen - erally recognised immedi ately : " I know one when I see one" (cf. McGann , 1995 : 3 1) The following summary focuses primarily on the func tions fulfilled by think tanks, rather than on their position and institutional form . For careful examination shows that virtually no two think tanks are alike. The `classical' examples, Brookings and Rand, differ widely from each other. The recent popularity ' of think tank s, particularly in Japan - with its political culture of `corporate governance' -, ha s increased the diversity further . An inventory of Japanese think tanks, for example, require s a flexible approach to the requirement that they are separate from the government. For that matter, the WRR too is an institution which, while functionally independent, bears a formal relationship to the govern - ment. Consequently , the following summary is based on a number of criteria , although these have not been applied entirely consistently.

The criteria used are as follow s : independence ofpolitics. This does not mean that institutions are intended to be politically/ideologically neutral not, as stated, that they should not form part of the government . The important thing is that they are more than a government bureau or political party and that the W ISE B EFO R E T H E EVE N T

20 l251J[Q/S WRR

prevailing political system give s them the freedom to carry out their scholarly work ; a wide-ranging brief. Only those institutions have been included which focus particularly on cros s-sector social and administrative problems confronting current society. Think tanks operating in only one field, even though their activities are important - such as constructing economic models or strategi c studies - have not been included in the list . Undoubtedly, this means that hundreds of specialist think tanks have been omitted: the Ameri can National Bureau for Economic Re search and World Watch Institute, to mention but two. • a focus on government policy. These are institutes whose work i s designed to make a difference for policy, either be cause they provid e io6 direct advice to the government or because, by initia ting public debate , they influence paradigms . Institution s which are concerned primarily with promoting scien ce and the practice of science as an independent aim, such as the Forschungsinstitutfiir Sozio-Oekonomie and th e Austrian Academy of Sciences , or institutes which concentrate primaril y on training students, such as the American Aspen Institute o r Hubert H. Humphrey Institute, have also been omitted ; • publication of research results. In the case of scientific institutes, there can be no argument that their produ cts must be made available for publi c scrutiny.

The survey also ignores think tank s attached to large companies and large social organisations and ac tion groups . Finally, think tanks a ttached to the national banks in the different countries form a border area . They have not been included in the survey; suffice it to say that the Dutch Central B ank (De Nederlandsche Bank) and the Banque de France, for example, have such departments .

Working metho d In compiling this survey , intensive use was fir st made of the new possibilities offered by the Internet. The Net wa s searched for names of think tank s and policy research institutes throughout the world. Individual think tanks were then asked to supply further information about themselves , as well as particulars of similar institutions known to them . Later, use was made of a number ofsummarie s which proved to exi st already, namely the Gale directory (Gerring, 1996 ; summary of research institutions, particularly Txo-like institutes '), OSCAR (De Jouvenel, 1996; summary of the French organisation `Futurible s', comprising individuals and institutions

1 TNO = Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research . B SURVEYS

active in futures research), rrixA's World Directory of ThinkTanks and the Day summary (1993). Finally, further information was requested from embassies in a number of countries for which it wa s difficult to obtain information via the Internet and from the above summarie s.

A b ri ef profile i s given of all the institutions found, stating their addre ss, when they were founded and how their brief i s defined . An indication is also given of their budget (converted to Dutch guilders at 1997 levels) and their size . Since the term `s taff doe s not have the same m eaning in all countries, the size of the per sonnel complement sometimes had to be esti- mated; in the se case s the scientific staff was taken a s the ba sis. We al so made a selection from the sometimes very numerous publications to give an impression of the work of the in stitution concerned . Mo st of the information has been derived from material made available by the institution s concerned themselves . In a few ca ses, for the large and internationally known think tanks, this wa s supplemented by information from the litera - ture .

A few findings Although the survey is primarily intended for prac tical purposes, as well as to provide an impression of the ve ry varied way in which think tank s throughout the world fulfil their task s, a few substan tive conclusions can also be drawn . The summary is partly the re sult of what was initially only a suspicion : that the need for think tank s dates primarily from the 1970s and that that need arose simultaneously in a relatively large number of Western countrie s. Naturally, such a claim needs to be tested ; the survey presented here is par tly the re sult of that te st. It does indeed show that think tanks occur in vir tually all Western countries and are particularly strongly represented in the us ; Smith (i99i) estimates their total number at more than one thousand in the us alone . The summary also shows that most institutions were founded after 1970 . Only a few think tanks predate 194o, and there are none older than i 9 oo .

In looking at the growth in think t anks during the seven ties, it has to be stated that it i s unknown how many institutions formed in that period have since disappeared again . In the case of some think tanks, such as the Central Policy Review Staff, established in io Downing Street , the offices of the British Prime Minister, and the German Kommissionfiir wirts chaft- lichen and sozialen Wandel, we know that they did not la st much more than ten year s; their winding up attracted a fair amount of attention in W ISE BEFORE THE E V E N T

20 5 $ years WRR

political and public opinion . How many less prominent organi sations have disappeared since the seventies without being much noticed is di fficult to say. These were often spontaneous initiative s, of which more may have disappeared than have remained . For example , a number of organisations which by the provisional WRR in the 1970s were regarded as related - as internal summarie s from those years show - can no longer be found . Moreover, experiences with advisory bodies show that the institu tions named in the se summaries are fairly subj ect to fluctuation.

However , the survey also shows that the growth of a number of think tanks continues to this day, and has even accelerated in recent ye ars. Their diversity has also increased; there ar e think tanks specialising in a single ~o$ specific topic, such as the German Centrum fzir Hochschulentwicklung which was set up in 1994 by the Ber telsmann Stiftung as a `Denkfa6rik' to supervi se the reform of higher education (this is also an ex ample of a private think tank in Germany) More and more think tanks are also arising at both subnational and supranational level.

Thirdly the summary shows that, although think tank s occur all over the world, their institutional position varies from region to region . Countries with coalition governments and a consensus-based political culture , for example, tend to have more think tanks focusing purely on policy analysi s, where as in political systems with a more confrontational basis the policy analyses are always ba sed on prin ciples which are generally stated in the charters of those institutions . Broadl y, it can be said that - particularly in the US - think tanks working on the ba sis of predefined values and prin - ciples are of more recent date than the more 'eclectic' think tanks, which gener ally date from 1975 or earlier. Some see thi s as an expression of an increasing politicisation - and thus degeneration - of the public function of think tanks (cf. Smith, i99i: 167) Others, while not denying the increa sing political profiling of think tanks, place this in the perspective of the growth in the number of think tank s and the increasing competition between them (McGann, 1 995: 39) In ord er to stand out in the `science for policy' marketplace , think tanks have to adopt a higher profile . This can entail both a style geared to reconciling confli cts of interest and a more combative style; it depends on what po sition an institution already ha s at a given moment , who work s there and what is asked of the institution.

It is striking that (leaving aside the large think tanks such as Brookings and the Rand Corpor ation) think tanks show gre at mutual similarity in terms B SURVE Y S

of form. This applies both as regards their size (limited internal staff- ten to forty people combined with u se of univer sity staff), their method of funding (from one or more sources, not earmarked, with guaranteed progr ammatic independence for the in stitution) , their structure (often `scholar -statesmen' who end up at a think t ank after a career in a univer sity or poli tical environment or both) , their working method (proje ct-based, conferences, contract re search) and their appro ach (external fo cus, own periodicals in addition to frequently public reports, plus participation in the public debate by expressing opinions through article s, etc .)

Finally, it should be repeated ag ain that think tanks differ in terms of insri- turion albackground . Some were founded by the government , others are separate from the government and are merely subsidi sed by it or enjoy tax iog bre aks; yet other s were in stalled by funds wh ich are financed by - tax - deductible - contributions from industry. The latter form is particularly common in the us, the first in Western Europe; think tanks in Eastern Europe and A sia appear to form more a part of the political s ystem than those in Western Europe. Whatever their in stitutional basis, all think tanks themselves emphasise their independence. On the one hand it is clear that, in diverse institutional contexts and under different political systems, the substance of what i s understood by this term cannot be the same everywhere . On the other hand , the institutional differences may well say more about the ways that differen t countries have found for orga - nising this type of work than abou t the public func tion fulfilled by these institutions . In an ideal situation, that function can entail the formation of a counter to the delusions of the day , helping to balance a predomin ance of sectoral interests, and po ssibly helping to re solve political deadlock s. In conclusion , it doe s not seem to be the case that think t anks repla ce existing institutions which together form the public domain . Rather, they repre- sent a new type of public organisation, which functions along side lobby organi sations (in the us) or alongside advisory bodies which have devel - oped from th e organi sed consultative system (as in the Netherlands and Germany) They have arisen alongside such institutions as a respon se to the permanently changing character of many modern social developments. WI SE BEFORE TH E E V E N T

z0/z5 ye ars was

Bibliography

Day, Alan J . (ed .) (1993), Think Tanks: An International Directory ; Essex, Longman Group .

Gerring, Anthony L . (ed.) (1996), International Research Centers Directory; eighth edition 1996-97, New York, etc ., Gale Research Inc .

de Jouvenel, Hugues (ed .) (1996), OSCAR; Futures Studies in Western Europe: Directory oflndiuiduals and Organisations 1996; Paris, Futuribles International .

McGann, James G . (1995), The Competition for Dollars, Scholars and Influence in Public Policy Industry ; Lanham, University Press of America.

NrxA's World Directory of Think Tanks ; Tokyo, National Institute for Research Advancement, 1996 .

Smith, James Allen (i99i ) , The Ideabrokers, Think Tanks and the Rise of th e New Policy Elite; New York , The Free Pres s.

Steinmuller, Karlheinz (1996), Zukunftforschung in Europa; Geschichte, Institutionen ; Gelsenkirchen, Sel-retariat fiir Zukunftforschung . B SU RV EY S

THINK TANKS IN THE WORLD - A SURVE Y

AUSTRALI A

A UST RA LIA N CO MM ISS I O N FO R T HE F UTU R E

ADDRESS P.O . Box 18187,45 C olli n s S treet, Melbou rn e 8 0 03 Phone : 6i 03 993888 5 uxL : http ://www.acff.co m.au/

YE A R OF EST A BLISH M E N T 198 0

COU N CIL 7 STATUS non-profit non-governmental organisation CHARACTERISATION futures organisation concerned with the development of a just and creative Australia . Its institutions and individuals are characterised by their international outlook, forward orientation and ethical commitment . Through its to linkages to government, business and the community the Commission is able to mobilise groups and individuals to identify and examine futures issues . Because of its status it is able to generate independent analyses and ideas and bring them to the attention of the community and community leaders . PUBLICATIONS J . Pixley, Full Employment - The First Priorityfor a Responsible Society (1993) A . Mant, Leaders at the Edge (1992) R . Eckersley, Youth and the Challenge to Change (1992) Energy Futures : Efficient Energy Scenarios to 202o : The Economic Impact of Greenhouse Gas Reductions (i99i) Savingfor the Future: a Comparative Study of the Savings Policies in Singapore and Australia (i99i ) Bill Ford, Rethinking Skillingfor a Restructured Workplace (i99o) Use your Initiative (iggo ) Personal Action Guide for the Earth 1989 .

A UST RA LI AN SC I E N CE, T EC HN OLOGY AND EN G IN EE RIN G C O U N C I L ( A STE C

ADDRESS 51 All ara S tree t, G ro Box 9839, Canberra ACT z6o o Phone : 06 276121 0 URL : http ://astec .gov .au E-mail : astec@)astec .gov.a u

YE A R OF EST A BLISH M E N T 197 7

COUNCIL 9 STATUS established by law as part of the Ministry of Industry, Science and Tourism (Australian Science and Technology Council Act ) CHARACTERISATION ASTEC provides independent advice, both solicited and unsolicited, to the Commonwealth Government on a wide range of policies and programs W ISE BEFORE T H E E V E N T

5 0/2 51)[ a I3 W RR

related to science and technology. Its function is set out in the .as T SC Act : `to inves ti gate and to furnish information and advice to the Commonwealth Government in respect of ma tt ers rela ti ng to science and technology' . The Chairperson and members of the council are accountable through the Minister for Science and Technology to Parliament and are required to report on results through the annual report . The council can appoint individuals from outside its own membership to committees . PUBLICATIONS Developing Long-term Strategies for Science and Technology in Australi a - Outcomes of the Study: Matching Science and Technology to Future Needs : 2010 (1 99 6 ) Australia 's Science and Engineering Base for Information and Communica- tions Services and Technologies (1995) Shipping Partnership Science and Technology in Primary School s

CENTRE FOR INDEPENDENT S T UDIES ( CIS ) tt2 ADDRESS 3 8 Oxley Stre e t, St Leo nard s, NSW 2o6 5

Phone : oz 9438437 7 URL: http ://www .cis .org .au /

E-mail : cis@cis .org .a u

YEAR OF E S TABLISHMENT 1976

STAF F 1 1 STATUS non-governmental Organisation CHARACTERISATION independent public policy research institute committed to : individual liberty and choice, including freedom of association, religion, speech and the right to property ; an economy based on free and competitive markets ; democratic government under the rule of law ; the importance of autonomous and free civil society. PUBLICATIONS James, From Welfare State to Welfare Society Kasper, Capital Xenophobia : Australia's Controls of Foreign Investment Kukathas, The Fraternal Conceit: Individualist versus Collectivist Ideas of Community Maley, Ethics and Ecosystems: Protecting Human Interests and Enui ronmental Values Ratnapala, Welfare State or Constitutional State ? Sorenson, No Waiting : Ideas for Improving Sydney's Bus Services Wildavsky, Trial without Error : Anticipation vs Resilience as Strategies for Risk Reduction B S U RV E Y S

AUSTRI A

WIENER INSTITUT FUR INTERNATIONA L WIRTSCHAFTSVERGELEICHE (WIIW)

ADDRESS Oppolzergasse 6, Wien ioio Phone : 43 1 53366i o URL : h ttp ://www. wiiw. ac. at / YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1973 STAFF 29 BUDGET us $ 2 .2 million (government, membership fees, Austrian National Bank ) STATUS non-governmental organisatio n CHARACTERISATION the institute conducts economic research with regard to Central and East European countries . Areas of research are economic and social issues, industry policy, development, resources and energy, agriculture, foreig n relations, and regional studies . PUBLICATIONS The Vienna Institute Monthly Reports . (periodical ) wiiw-Research Papers » 3 wllw-Reprint Series Countries in Transition : wiles Handbook of Statistics

B ELG I U M

CE NTR E FOR EUROPE AN P OL I CY STUD I ES (CE P S

ADDRESS Place du Congres i, Brussel B-iooo Phone : 32 2 229391 1

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 198 3 STAFF 40, included 21 researchers BUDGET (membership fees, contract research) STATUS private organisatio n CHARACTERISATION conducts research in the field of European policy . Its fundamental aims ar e to provide decision-makers with information and analyses of Europea n affairs ; to contribute to the public debate about European institutions an d policies ; to create an international network of people who are committed t o enhancing European integration and Cupertino . Areas of research ar e economic, political and social issues, industry policy, communications an d information, resources and energy, agriculture, environment, security an d defence, foreign relations, and regional studies .

PUBLICATIONS Economic Instruments in EC Environmental Policy (1994 ) Corporate Tax Harmonization in the EC (1992) W ISE BEFORE T HE E V E N T

2o /251f [a It WR R

K O N I N G BO UDE W I JN ST I C H T I N G

ADDRESS Brederodesrraat u, iooo Brussel

Ph one : 3 2 2 5 111 84 0

YE AR OF ESTA BLISH M E N T 1976

ST A FF 11 0

BUDGET US $ 25 million (national lottery, assets)

STATU S non-governmental foundation with official government recognitio n CH AR ACTERIS ATIO N the foundation distributes subsidies and functions as a forum where new ideas are formed in various areas . Aim of the foundation is to take initiatives in order to improve living circumstances of the population, taking into account economic, social , scientific and cultural factors . It situates itself in between the citizen and policy .

PUBLIC ATION S Solidariteit en familie. Eerste bumper of laatste vluchtheuvel? (1996) Kansarmoede en onderwijs (199 6 ) Dimitragids . Rurale urouwen en ontwikkeling ( 199 6) Buitengewone loopbanen worden gewoon (1996) »4 MilieuOntrrtoetingsProgramma . Een draaiboek uoorgemeentebesturen (1996)

BULGA R IA

CE N TE R FOR THE STUD Y OF D E M OC R AC Y (CS D )

ADD R ESS i Lazar Stanav Street, 111 3 Sofia Phone : 359 2 7o6164 URL : http ://www .onlinebg.com/csd/ YE A R OF EST A BLISH M EN T 198 9 STAFF 53, included 44 researcher s BUDGET us $ 500,000 (international organisations, foreign governments, universities, contract research )

ST A TU S non-profit non-governmental organisation

CHARACTE R IS A TIO N public policy research organisation committed to fostering the stabilisation of a democratic and social and economic system in Bulgaria by encouraging open dialogue between scholars and policy-makers . Its research concerns the field of privatisation and private sector development . PUBLIC A TIONS D . Bobeva et al, Survey of the Efficiency of Foreign Consultant Firms (1994) Yordan Hristoskov, Unemployment and Labor Market in Bulgaria (1994 )

CLUB `ECO N O MIK A 2000 '

A DD R ES S PO Box 1 7 10 , g Dondakov Blvd . , iooo Sofia Phone : 359 2 80 5 201 YE A R OF EST A BLISH M E N T ( i977) 1 99 0

STA F F 9 researchers , 3 supporting staff

BUDGET us $ 60,000 (interna tional organisations, foundations, donations) B S URVEY S

ST ATU S non-governmental association of individuals and institution s

CHA RA CTE R IS A TIO N conducts advisory and educational programs aimed at economic growth and welfare in Bulgaria . The Club's research activities are concentrated in the areas of privatisation and enterprise restructuring ; regional economics ; and social policy .

P UBLIC ATIO N S George Shopov, Changes in Policy Conditions and Policies (1995) Todor Radev, Minimum Wages, Collective Bargaining, Unemployment and

Poverty (1995 ) George Shopov, Economic Environment and Social Welfare Reform (1994) Gradev, Keremidchiev, Prospects for the Development ofBulgarian Food Industry (1994 )

XXI CE N TU RY FOU N D A T I O N

ADDRESS ii Aksakov St . , iooo Sofia

Phone : 359 2 8o 633 0 E - mail : tomov.xci@sf. cit. b g ~~5 YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 199 0 STAFF z8 researchers, 4 supporting staff BUDGET (endowment, international organisations, foundations, donations ) STATUS foundation CHARACTERISATION objecuvesaretoassistBulgaria'sdemocradcsocio -economic developmen t and its successful integration into the European Community ; to facilitate international economic, political and cultural Cupertino, foreign investmen t and scientific exchange ; to support the adoption of optimal socially-usefu l strategic decisions on the economy, politics and society . Areas of researc h are economic, political and social issues ; security and defence ; regional - economic studies . PUBLICATIONS Dobrinsky, Landesmann (eds), Transforming Economics and Europea n Integration (1995) Dobrinsky, Reform of the Financial System in Bulga ria (1994)

CA N AD A

CA N ADA W EST FOU N D A T I O N (C W F )

ADDRESS S uit e SS o , 6 30 - 3 r d Ave nu e Sw, Calg a ry, Alberta TZP414 Phone : 403 264 953 5 URL : h ttp ://www.c w f.ca/ E-mail : cwf@freenet .calgary.ab .c a

YEAR OF EST A BLISH M E N T 197 0

STAFF 5 executive officers, 26 counci l members, 9 staff (research assistants)

BUDGET U S $ 500,0 0 0

STATU S no n -profit non-governme n tal organisati o n

CH ARACTERIS A TION active in econom ic, constitutional, and socia l policy researc h. Its focus is on W ISE B EFO R E TH E EVE N T

202 5 years WRR

Western Canada, but within a national context . Its primary objecti ves are to conduct research into the economic and social characteristics of the West and North, within a national and international context ; to educate individuals regarding the West's regional economic and social membership fees to the Canadian federation ; to act as a catalyst for informed debate . PUBLICATIONS Selling it to the World : AProfileofW.Can . Merchandise Exports (i995 ) Toward Affordable Government : Progress Report Card (1995) E lectro nic By - ways: Info rma tio n and Se r vices i n th e N ew Rural West (1 9 9 5 ) Th e Climate fo r D eba te: Glo bal Warming and Po l icy I n strumen ts (1995 ) Referendum '95: Understanding the Dynamics (i995 ) The Environment and the Constitution (1995) Citizens and Government: Who Decides? ( 19 95 ) A Blueprintfor Senate Reform (1995 )

C . D . H OW E IN ST I TUT E

ADDRESS 125 Adelaide Street East, Toronto, Ontario rtSC i L7 Phone : 41 6 865 1904 URL : h ttp : //www. cdhowe . org/ E-mail : cdhowe @) cdhowe . org

YE AR OF ESTA BLISH M E N T 197 3 STAFF 9 researchers, io supporting staff BUDGET Us $ 1,4 million (membership fees, sales, contract research ) STATUS non-governmenta l organisatio n CHARACTERISATION goals are to identify current and emerging economic and social policy issues ; to analyse options for public and private sector responses, to recommend , where appropri ate, par ti cular policy options and to communicate the conclusions of its research to a domes tic and international audience in a clear, non-par ti san way . On issues as diverse as monetary policy , government finance, international and interprovincial trade, the environment, health care, social policy, and Canada's ongoing constitutional crisis, the Institute has demons tr ated its abili ty to identi fy emerging problem areas and to explore practical options for policy reform . PUBLICATIONS L ip s ey , Econ o m ic Grow th , Technologi cal Chan ge, and Can a dia n Eco n o m ic Policy (1996 ) Burgidge et al , Wh en we're 65: Refo rm ing Cana da 's R eti re m e n t In come System (1996 ) F innie , Sc h wartz, Stu den t L o an s in Ca n ada : Pas t, Prese nt and Fu tu re (1996) Nak a mura, Employ m e n t I ns uran ce : A Fra m ewo rkfo r R e a l R efo rm ( 199 6 ) Ri c h ard s, Language Matters : Ensuring that the Sugar does not Dissolve in the Coffee (1996 ) Mint z , P esando (ed s), Pu tting Co n s um e rs First: Reforming th e Can adian Financial Services Industry (1996 ) Barl ey, Th e New Wor ld of Work (1996 ) Beach, S lotsve, Are We Becoming Tw o Societies? Income Polarization and the S S URVEY S

Myth of the Declining Middle Class in Canada (1996 ) Adams et al, Good Jobs, Bad Jobs, No Jobs : Tough Choices for Canadian Labor Law (1995 ) Richards et al, Helping the Poor: A Qual ified Casefor "Workfare" (1995)

F RA SE R IN STITUT E

ADDRESS znd Floor - 6z6 Bute S treet, Vancouver, B ri tish Columbia v6 E 3 M i Phone : 604 688 ozz i URL : tlttp : // www . fraserinsritute .ca/ E-mail : info@fraserinstitute . ca

YE A R OF ESTA BLISH M E N T 1974 STAFF n researchers, i2 supporting staff BUDGET us $ i million (foundations, corporations, individuals ) STATUS non-govern mental organisation CHARACTERISATION founded to redirect public attention to the role markets can play in providing for the economic and social well-being of Canadians . The Fraser tt7 institute monitors economic and social policy developments worldwide , seeking examples to guide policy in Canada . PUBLICATIONS ( 1 996) Gibson, Thirty Million Musketeers : One Canada,for all Canadians Gwartney, Lawson, Block, Economic Freedom of the World: 1975-1995 Sarlo, Poverty in Canad a Johnson, Pazderka, It's no Gamble: The Economic and Social Benefits of Stock Markets Usher, The Uneasy Case forEqualiwtion Payments Palda, Essays in Canadian Surface Transportations Riggs, Velk, Beyond NAFT A Brown, Caring for Profit: Economic Dimensions of Canada's Health Industry Block, Economic Freedom : Toward a Theory of Measuremen t Grubel, Walker, Unemployment Insurance : Global Evidence oflts Effects on Unemploymen t

INSTI T UTE FOR POLICY ANALYSIS / UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO (IP A

ADDRESS University of Toronto , 1 40 St . George Street, Suite 707, Toronto tet5s IAI Phone: 1 416 97 8 4 8 5 4 URL : tlttp : // www. epas . utoronto . ca : 8o8o/ipa/ipa . html E - mail : bolt@epas . utoronto . c a

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 196 7 STAFF zo researchers, 2 supporting staff BUDGET (university, government, donations, membership fees, sales) STATUS academic research institut e CHARACTERISATION objectives are to further scholarly research in applied economics and related disciplines with the goal of enhancing policy analysis, and to disseminate these findings to academics, policy-makers and practitioners . W ISE B EFORE THE E V E N T

20251) G OfS WR R

INSTITUTE FOR RES E ARCH ON PUBLIC POLICY ( IRPP )

ADDRESS 1470 Peel Street, Suite zoo, M ontreal, Qll 6be C H 3 A I TI

Phone : 1 514 985 246 1 URL : http ://www.irpp .org/ E-mail : txpP@odyssee .ne t

YE A R OF ESTA BLISH M ENT 197 2

ST A FF 1 3 researchers, 4 supporting staff B UDGET us $ i million in 1994 STA TU S non-profit organisa tio n

CH A R A CTERIS ATIO N the Institute wishes to improve public policy in Canada by identi fying significant policy questions that will confront Canada in the longer run, and undertaking independent research on those topics . It promotes wide dissemination of its own and other research results, and encourages non- partisan discussion and cr iticism of public policy issues in a manner which elicits broad participation from all sectors and regions of Canadian society. Areas of research are social policy, health care, education, public finance , tt 8 city-regions, governance . PUBLICATIONS Ed West, Ending the Squeeze on Universities Andrew Sancton, Governing Canada's City-region s Peter Aucoin, The New Public Management : Canada in Comparativ e Perspectiv e Leslie F. Seidle, Rethinking the Delivery of Public Services to Citizen s Sirois/Forget, The Medium and the Muse: Culture, Telecommunications an d the Information Highway

CH IN A

CHINA DEVELOPMENT INSTIT U TE ( CDI )

ADDRESS Build i ng D of Exp ert F l ats, S ilver Lak e Rd ., S hen z hen , Gu angd o ng 5 1 8 0 3 1 Ph o ne : 86 755 241 0 98 9 YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 198 9 STAFF 83 researchers, zo supporting staff BUDGET us $ 800,000 (national and local governments, international organisations , contract research ) STATUS public policy research and consulting organisatio n CHARACTERISATION purpose is to provide consulting information and other services to govern - ment organisations at various levels, domestic and foreign enterprises an d social bodies . Research areas relate to economic and social issues, develop - ment and industry policy, information and communications, foreign rela - tions and regional studies. PUBLICATIONS A New Contribution for Hong Kong and Shenzhen as a Single Economic Zon e (1995) An Investigation of FnlPolicy in China (1994) B SURVEY S

COLOMBI A

CE NTRO D E ESTU D IOS SO B RE D ES ARR OLLO ECO N 6 MI C0 (CEDE )

ADDRESS Camera IE/t8n/10, A .A .4976, Bogota

Phone : 34140

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 958

STAFF 4 0 BUDGET (foundation grants, consultancy fees ) CHARACTERISATION concentrates on economic and social research, with particular reference to the Colombian situation : economic, social and labour market developments, gender studies, the international economy, macro-economic models, the agricultural sector, and demographic, urbanisation and regional questions . PUBLICATIONS Desarrollo y sociedad (periodical )

DE N MAR K iig COPENHAGEN INSTITUTE FOR FUTURES STUDIES (CIF S

ADDRESS Pilestraede 59, DK - 1112 Copenhagen K

Phone : 45 33 11717 6 URL: http ://inet .uni-calk/-cifsss/ E-mail : cifsssC+)inet .uni-cal k

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 970

STAFF 2 4 DISCIPLINES economics, political science s BUDGET us $ 1 .5 million (corporations, membership fees) STATUS non-governmental membership organisation .

CHARACTERISATION the c ► FS analyses tendencies and trends, both national and international, that shape the future and will be of interest to industry and society . Its purpose is to support decision-making platforms in companies and public and private organisations, by creating awareness of the future . Reports are available to members only.

PUBLICATIONS The Changing Geography ofEurope (1997) The Future of Management and Management Theories (1997) After the Information Society - The Fifth Society (1997 )

SOC I ALFORS KN INGS IN S TI TU TTET DAN ISH NA TIO N A L IN ST I TUTE OF SOC I AL R ESEA R C H (SFI )

ADDRESS Borgergade z8, nx-1300 Copenhagen K Phone : 45 33 13981 1

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 195 8 STAFF 56 researchers, 47 supporting staff

BUDGET us $ 8 million W ISE BEFORE THE E V ENT

20/25 years WRR

S T ATU S established under law by the Danish government

CH ARA C T E R IS A T I O N the Institute is especially involved in applied research connected with short- term or long-term political and administrative decision-making in the field of social policy, labour, social aspects of housing and health conditions .

PUB LICATIO NS Just K . Jeppesen, Ethnic Minorities in Denmark (1 995) Hjorth B . Andersen, Lifemode Analyses Survey (1995) E . Christensen, My Parent is an Alcoholic.. . (1995) A . Csonka, Liberalization ofJob-center Services (1993)

ECUADOR

CO R PO RA C I 6 N DE ESTUDIOS PA RA EL D ES A ROLLO (CO RD E S

ADDRESS S u ec i a 277y Av. Los S hyri s, Edific io Su ec i a, p . z , Qu i to, Pro v . d e P ichin cha URL : http ://www.undp.org/tcdc/ecuio3i .htm E-ma il : cordes@cordes .org.ec

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1984 120 STAFF 9 researchers ¢ supporting staff BUDGET (Banco Central Del Ecuador, Interamerican Development Bank, UNDP, World Bank )

STATU S non-profit non-governmental organisatio n CH ARA CTERIS ATIO N is involved in development studies , with emphasis on economic, social and political problems that affect Ecuador and Latin Ame ri can development . PUBLIC ATIO N S Ecuador: a Gove rnability Problem ( 199 6 ) Education , Growth and Equity (1995 ) Ecuador and Peru : Economy and Development (1995) Social Policies and Poverty (1994 )

EGYPT

CENTRE F O R P OL I TICAL A ND S T RATEGIC STUDIES AL AHRAM FOUNDATION ( CPSS )

ADDRESS Al Ga l aa Street, Cairo Phone :zo 2578603 7 URL : http ://www.acpss .org/

YE AR OF ESTA BLISH M E N T 1968

ST A FF 3o researchers, io supporting staff

STATUS independent research unit within the frame of the semi-governmental Al Ahram Foundatio n

CH A R A CTE R IS A TIO N undertakes multidisciplinary research dealing with Arab and international developments as well as Egyptian strategic, political, economic and social affairs . The c P SS is independent in conducting its own research work, whether in designing its annual research program, in collec ti ng data and information, and in publishing its research findings . B SU RV E Y S

PUBLICATIONS Limits of Power: The Israeli Nuclear Arsenal (1996) Non-governmental Organisations in Egypt (1995) Political Parties in Egypt 1923 - 1953 (1995) The Asian Tigers: A Defeat of Underdevelopment (1995 )

FI N LA N D

F IN LAND FUTURES R ESEA R C H CE N T R E (FF R C )

ADDRESS Lemm ink aisenk a tu 1 ¢ -1 8 C , PO B o x no , FIN - 2o5 2i Turku Phone : 3S 8233835z8 uxL: http ://www.tukkk .fi/tutu/english .htm E-mail : paivi .sa l onen@tukkk .fi

YEAR OF E S TABLISHMENT 1992

STAFF 1 0

DISCIPLINES political science, sociology, stati stics , histo ry , mathematics, economics, philosophy ~zt BUDGET us $ 400,000 (1996 )

ST A TU S academic, established by the Ministry of Educa tion, within the Turku School of Economics and Business Administration

CH A RACTERIS A TIO N FFRC participates in the preparation of the second Report on the Future of Finland that is being wri tt en by the cabinet of the prime minister.

CURRE N T PROJECT Citizenship and Ecomodernization in the Information Society. The Futures Approach . Partners in this project are the universities of Helsinki, Turku Technical Research Cen tr e, Finnish census bureau, Telecom Finland , Mikkeli Internetix . SUB PROJECTS INCLUDE Transformational Dynamics of the Transition Period Citizens Coping with the Information Society Ecomodernizationanti Information Society

FRANC E

ASSOCIATION DE PROSPEC T IVE RHENAN E (AP R

ADDRESS Maison de Sciences de 1'Homme , 7o all6e de la Robertsau , 67000 Strasbourg Phone : 33 88257711

YEAR OF E STABLISHMENT 1987

STAF F 3

BUDGET us $ 140 ,000 (government ) CHA RA CTE R IS ATION fi elds of expertise : employment, work, environmental problems , family, social structures, futures research, housing, urbanisation, industry, inequality , redistribution, physical planning, public administration, research, development, science policy, social movements, transport . WI SE BEFORE T H E E V E N T

20 1251> [ar5 WR R

CENTRE D 'ETUDES PROSP ECTIVES ET D 'INFORMATIONS INTERNATIONALS (CEPII)

ADDRESS 9 rue Georges Pitard , 75740 Paris CEDEx i 5 Phone : 3314842641 4 URL: h ttp : //www. /cepii . fr/webcepii . htm E-mail : postmaster@cepii. fr

YE A R OF EST A BLISH M E N T 197 8 ST A FF 55

BUDGE T us $ 3,5 million (government)

CH A RACTERISATIO N cen tr e for interna tional economics . It is part of a network of research institutes linked to the French Planning Agency. Its work programme is set by a board composed of leading gove rnment officials, business personalities, trade unionists and academics .

PUBLICAT I ONS Michel Aglietta, La crise bancaire en France et dons le monde (1997) Lionel Fontagn 6 , Michael Freudenberg, L'impact de Marche unique sur le commerce europEen (1997 ) Fran~oise Lemoine, Quand le march chinois s 'ouuriia . .. (1997)

CO MMI SSAR IA T Gt N tRA L DU PL AN (C G P

ADDRESS IS rue de Marti gnac, 757 0 0 P aris 07 S P Phone : 3 3 0 1 4556 5i oo URL : http ://w ww.p lan .gouv .fr/

YE A R OF EST A BLISH M E N T 194 6

ST A FF HO

BUDGET us $ i2 mi l lion (government)

STA TU S publi c

CH A R A CTERIS A TIO N the CGP fulfils 3 major task s : it provides a setting in which economic and social partners, government officials and independent experts meet; it u n derta kes prospective stud i es on all issues relevant for the future of France and the framing of government policies ; it performs evaluative studies of public programs . PUBLIC ATIO N La plan cation fran~aise a-t-elle on avenir? (1997)

D ELEGAT I O N A L' AM ENAGE M E N T DU TERRI T O I RE ET A L ' ACTIO N RfctorrAr.E (DATAR )

ADDRESS 1 Ave nu e C harles F lo quet, 753 4 3 Paris CEDEX 07 Ph on e : 33 014o651234 URL : http ://www.datar .gouv.fr/ YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 196 3 BUDGET (government) STATUS publi c CHARACTERISATION DATA R's aim is to ensure a balanced development for all the French regions . B S URVEY S

I t co-ordinates pol icy preparations and monitors pol icy realisation . Expe r tise: agri cultu re ; demograp hy ; environment ; futures research ; industry ; new technologies ; physical pl anning ; pu blic admi nistration ; transpo rt.

EUROPE 99, POLITIQUE DE CIVILISATIO N

ADDR ESS 21 Boulevard de Grenelle, 75015 Par-i s

Phone : 33 0 1 457 8 340 3 E - mail : europegg@globenet . or g

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1988

STAFF 7

STA TU S non-profit non - governmental organisation, part of La Maison Grenelle

CH A RACTE R IS ATIO N interface between intellectual workers, poli ti cians and active citizens about prospective European issues . The institute publishes documents that should stimulate the public debate on the future of Europe, and organises work- shops on these topics . Expertise is in the field of applied futures research ; i23 employment; human values and attitudes ; international relations ; political sciences ; social movements ; social policy .

PUBLIC A TION D 6ueloppement, coopEration , acduite, 6 l6rrt ents pour un d~bat europEen

(1993 )

FUTU RI BLES IN TE RN AT I O N A L

ADDRESS 55 Rue de Varenne, F-753 4 1 Paris CEDEX 07 Phone : 33i4zzz63i o E-mail : futuribl@pratique .fr

YE A R OF EST A BLISH M E N T 196 o

ST A FF io researchers, 40 support staff

BUDGET (membership fees)

STATU S non-governmental organisati on

CH A RACTE R IS A TIO N the organisation consists of three units : Futuribles S . A . R . L . which is a publishing house, Reseau Futuribles Etudes & Conseil which func ti ons as a consultancy, and Futu ri bles International, a network of zooo experts in 70 countries . Its objective is to explore what might happen and what might be done in order to reconcile what is possible with what is desirable .

GERMA N Y

IN STITUT F UR WIRTSCHAFT UND GESELLSC HAFT BONN ( IWG )/ BONN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARC H

ADDRESS WissenschaftszentrumAhrstrasse45, S3175 Bonn Phone : 49 2z8 1372044 URL: http://www.jhu .edu/-aicgsdoc/publications/iwg.htm WI SE BEFO R E THE E V E N T

20/25 years WR R

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 97 7 STAFF 5 researchers, 4 supporting staff BUDGET vs $ 600,000 (donations, membership fees, contract research) STATUS private organisatio n CHARACTERISATION carries out academic research on important changes in the economy and society so as to evolve concepts for the further development of a liberal economic and social system . PUBLICATIONS O ttnad, Wahl, Grunewald,Rissein Fundament : Die deutsche Wirtschaftbis 2005(1995) Miegel, Meinhard, Zur Zukunft der Wirtschaft in Ostdeutschland (1994 )

KOMMI SS I O N F U R ZUK U NF T SFRA G EN DER FREISTAATEN BAYERN UND SACHSEN

ADDRESS K ennedya ll ee 6 2-70, 53 1 7 5 B o nn Phone : 49 2-28 37303 1

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 199 5 i 24 STAFF 2 6

BUDGET us $ 3 million (government)

STATUS non-profit non-governmental organisatio n CHARACTERISATION performs research in the field of economic and social policy, e .g . the reform

of the social welfare state in Germany .

M A X P LA N C K IN STITUT FU R GESELLSC H AFTSFORSCHU N G

ADDRESS Lothringer Strasse 78, D-50677 Koln Phone : 49 221 33605 0 URL: http ://www-mpi-fg-koeln .mpg.de/ E-mail mpi@mpi-fg-koeln .mpg .de CHARACTERISATION specialises in basic research in the social sciences . Its work focuses on the governance of advanced industrial societies in the face of internationalis- ation and economic globalisation, in particular on the changing roles and capacities of states and other corporate actors under conditions of international interdependence and supranational integration .

SEC R ETAR IA T FOR FUTURES STUDIES (SF Z )

ADDRESS Mun sch e id strass e 14,45886 G el sen ki rc h e n Phone : 0209 167 280 0 URL: http ://www .mmedia-ge .de/sfz/ E-mail: SFZC>wi page.de

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 99 0

STAFF 8 DISCIPLINES political, social, cultural, technical and physical sciences B UDGET Us $ 400,000 (government, contract research) B SURVEY S

S TATU S non-governmental commercial organisation, founded on the initiative of Dr . Zopel, at that time minister for urban development, housing and transport for the state of North Rhine Westphalia

CH A R A CTERIS A TIO N founded with a view to reconsidering the future role of government in the social, political, ecological and economic spheres . It also aims to identify new options for the futur e

CURRE N T PROJECT S Wissenschafttheoretischecnd methodische Grundlagen der Zukunftforschung Gestaltbare ZukunfYe. Science Fiction als Einubung von Zukunftdenken ZukunfYforschung in Kunst and Kultu r Zukunfiforschungcnd Organization von Zukunftswissen in Wirtschafts- unternehmen . Lifestyles and sustainability Regionales Guteruerkehrsmanagementfurdas Ruhrgebiet Sustainable Communities

PUBLIC A TIO N K . Steinmuller, Zukunftforschung in Europa ; Geschichte, Instutionen (1996 )

STIF T U N G WI SSE N SCH A FT U N D POLITIK ( S W P )/ iz5 R ESEARC H IN ST I TUTE FOR INT ER N AT I O NA L A FF AI R S

ADDRESS Haus Eggenberg, D - 8zo67 Ebenhausen/Isar Phone : 81 78 70 0 URL : http ://www .jhu .edu/-aicgsdoc/publications/swpbroch .htm E-mail : [email protected] .lrz-muenchen .de

YEAR OF ESTABLI S HMENT 1()6 2

STAFF ( 1 99 1 ) 12 1 BUDGET us $ io million (iggi)

ST ATU S foundation

CHARACTERISATIO N established after the example of RAND to further analytic research into problems of international politics and securi ty.

PUBLIC ATIONS Buttner, Krause (eds), RiistungstottEntwicklung?Sicherheitspolitik , Militlirausgaben and Rustungskontrolle fln der Dri tten Welt (1995) Dembinski et al . (eds), Amerikanische Weltpolidk nach dem Ost-West- Konflikt (1994 )

WISSENSCHAFTSZENTRUM BERLIN FUR SOZIALFORSC H U N G W ZB )/ BERLIN SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH CENTR E

ADORES Reichpietschufer 50,10785 Berlin

Phone : 49 30 25491 0 URL : }1CCp ://www.wz-berlin .de/

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 196 9

STAFF 1 54 BUDGET us $ 14 million (75% federal government, z5% government of Berlin) STATUS non-profit organisation founded by members of the Bundestag CHARACTERISATION aims to conduct socio-scientific research, focusing on complex, practical W ISE BEFORE THE EVE N T

2 o/25 y ears wx a

topics . The working method is interdisciplinary, international, and comparative . This usually involves extensive five-year research projects worked on by teams of scientists from different countries . Research focuses on labour market and employment ; technology, work and the environment ; social change, institutions and mediating processes ; and market processes and corporate development .

GREEC E

SOC I ET Y FO R SOC IA L AN D ECO N O MI C STUD I ES ( EK O M E

ADDRESS P .O . Box 78, 190 03 Markopoulo, Mesogeia, Attiki Phone : 30 299 23048

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 198 7 STAFF unpaid volunteer s BUDGET us $ 50,00° in 1992 (donations, subscriptions, sales) STATUS private i26 CHARACTERISATION promotes the study the free market economy in conjunction with the welfare state .

INDI A

CENTRE FOR POLICY RESEARCH (CPR )

ADDRESS Dharma M arg, Chanakyapuri, N ew De l hi iio o2i

Phone : 9111301S273 E-mai l : manager@cpr l .de lnet .ernet .i n YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1973 STAFF 35 researchers, 35 supporting staff BUDGET (Indian Council of Social Science Institutes, other organisations, contrac t research) CHARACTERISATION the centre's objective is to study policy issues in crucial areas and to acquir e a body of knowledge about policymaldng and development of alternativ e policy options . The focus is on interdisciplinary research on national an d subsidiary policies, with focus on short-, medium- and long-term polic y problems . PUBLICATIONS Arora, Verney, Multiple Identities in a Single State: Indian Federalism in Comparative Perspective (1995) P.R . Chari, Indo-Pak Nuclear Standoff The Role of the United States (1995 ) B .M . Bhatia, India's Middle Class : Role in Nation Building (1995) B S U RV EY S

I N DO N ESI A

C E NTER FOR POLICY AND IMPLEMENTATION STUDI E S ( CPIS )

ADDRESS P.O . Box i52o, Jakarta ioo15 Phone : 62 21 3800295 E-mail : cpisnet@idola .net .id YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 198 6 STAFF 6o researchers, 40 supporting staff BuDcer (government) CHARACTERISATION interdisciplinary research and policy advisory center. The Center advises the government in the area of economic and social issues, environment, agriculture, industry and planning .

IRELA N D

ECONO MI C AN D SOC IA L R ESEA R C H I NST I TUTE (ES RI ) ,z7

ADDRESS 4 Burlington Rd ., Dublin 4

Phone : 353i66715z5 E-mail : kaumsc@esri .ie

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT ig6 o STAFF 37 researchers, 36 supporting staff BUDGET US $ 4 .5 million (government, membership fees, sales, contract research, sponsoring) STATUS non-profit organisation founded under the Irish Companies Act CHARACTERISATION the research program is policy-oriented and relates to the practical problems facing the Irish economy and society, for which it provides independent, objective and well-balanced analyses . Subjects of interest include economic forecasting and modelling, economic growth, demography and labour, social policy, values and attitudes .

PUBLICATIONS Employment Associated with Manufacturing (1995) Enterprise-related 7Yaini»g and State Policy (1995) Waste Water Services (1995)

ITALY

CENTRO ITALIANO DI FORMAZIONE EUROPEA ITALIAN CENTER OF EUROPEAN TRAINING (CIF E

ADDRESS Salita de Crescenzi z6, ooi86 Rome Phone : 39 6 689386 4

ua ►. : http ://www. eurplace . org/orga/cife/

YEAR OF ESTABLI S HMENT 1970

STAFF 15 WI SE BEFORE THE EVEN T

2 02 5 yea rs WRR

BUDGET (international organisations, public and private organisations) STATUS commercia l CHARACTERISATION activities concern research, education, information, publications . Expertise is in the area of communication, information ; cultural development; demog - raphy ; family, social structures ; international relations ; macro-economics ; political sciences ; social policy .

PUBLICATIONS P. DiSantoetal,L'uniuersitd eleprospettiueinstituzionalidell'Europo (i994 ) Cagiano de Azevedo et al, Immigrants integration in seven Europea n countries (1994 )

JAPA N

CHUGO K U R EG I O N AL R ESE AR C H C E N TE R (C RR C )

ADDRESS C huden Bld g . Anne x z , i st fl oor, 4 - 33 Ko machi, N a ka - k u, H iros him a, Hiroshima-ken 73 0 Phone: 8i 8z 2 00 iz8 4579 YE A R OF EST A BLISH M E N T 196 2

ST A FF zz researchers, 6 supporting staff

BUDGE T us $ 5 million (contract research, local governments, industrial communities)

STA TUS non-profit non-governmental organisatio n

CH A R A CTERIS A TIO N carries out research on current economic and social issues, indus try policy, communication and information, and regional studies . Research should provide a basis for preparing plans and proposals for future developments .

PUBLIC A TIO N S Effects on Regional Economy from Industrial Restructuring and Globaliz-

ation (1994 ) Development in the Chugoku Region Toward 2010 (1994) Survey of the Lives of Foreign Students (1993 )

INSTITUTE FOR P OL I CY STUD I ES ( I PS )

ADDRESS Friend Building, 3rd Floor, 2-4-11 Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo ioo Phone : 81 3 3581214 1

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 97 1 STAFF 25 researchers, 3 supporting staff

BUDGET us $ 3 millio n

STATU S non-profit non-gove rnmental organisa tion established by authorisa tion of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Interna tional Trade and Industry, founded by private companies .

CH ARA CTERIS ATIO N research is on economic and social issues, industry policy, development, science and technology, resources and energy, agriculture, environment , and regional studies . B SU R VEY S

JAPAN RESEARCH INSTITUTE (JRI )

ADDRESS A kasaka-Kimoto Building, 4-8-6 A k asaka, M inato- k u, Tokyo 107 Phone : 8i3347g777o

YE A R OF EST A BLISH M E N T (1969 Japan Information Service) 1989

STAFF 27 researchers, 6 supporting staff

BUDGET us $ 6.5 million

ST A TU S non -pro fi t non-governmental organisation

CHA RA CTE R IS A TIO N the institute provides practical informa tion , management advice and economic analyses necessary to pursue and solve the complex problems that inevitably confront the public and private sectors on their way to the zest century. Major research themes include economic po licy, indus try, science and technology, social problems, and issues facing the international economy .

PUBLICATIONS Resea rch o n the Role of Non -profit Org att iz a ti o ns in Aged Societ y (199 4) Research on the Development of the Bridal Industry (1994) Resea rch on Policies to P romote th e R et urn of Urban Resi dents to R egiona l iz g Areas (1994 )

MITSUI KNOWLEDG E INDUSTRY RESE AR C H IN S T ITU TE ( MKI )

Address 3-7-4 K ojim achi , C hi yoda- ku , Tokyo ioz Ph one: 81 3 3 2 37 6 o i 2 Year of establi s hmen t 1972 STAFF 65o included 45 researchers

BUDGET us $ i8 million

STA TUS commercial CHARACTERISATION conducts interdisciplinary research into social, economic and industrial problems .

NATIONAL INSTITU T E FOR RESEARCH ADVAN CE M E NT ( NIRA )

ADDRESS Yebisu Garden Place Tower, 34th Fl ., 4-20-3 Ebisu, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo i5o

Phone : 81 3 5448 170 0 uRL : http ://www.nira.go .jp

E-mail : cpri@nirai .nira .go .jp

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1974 STAFF 46 researchers, 48 supporting staff BUDGET us $ i5 million (government, private sector ) STATUS established by a special act of the Diet ; joint public/private organisation CHARACTERISATION main objective is to contribute to the resolution of the varied and complex issues confronting modern societies . Research topic s span a wide range including politics, economic and social issues, interna ti onal issues, techno]- ogyand local government systems . Research results are publicly available . WI SE BEFORE T H E EVE N T

2o125 years WR R

PUBLICATIONS NIRA 's WorldDirectory of Think Tanks (1996) NIRA Review (periodical) Japan towards the zest Century (1978)

Microelectronics (1985 ) The Asia-Pack Region : An Image ofa New Region and the Role ofJapa n (1989 )

NIP PO N R ESE AR C H IN ST I TUTE (NRI )

ADDRESS Kazan Building, 3rd floor, 3 - 2-¢ Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo ioo Phone : 81 3 35819 55 1 E-mail : nrsoken@mb .tokyo .infoweb .or .jp

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 97 7 STAFF 20 researchers, z supporting staff

BUDGET us $ 5 million

ST ATU S non-profit non-governmental network

CH ARA CTE R IS ATIO N research has an interdisciplinary character . Areas of interest : economic, i3o political and social issues, industry policy, development, science and technology, biological and physical sciences, communications and information, resources and energy, agriculture, environment, foreign relations and regional studies .

PUBLIC ATIO N S International Comparison ofSaving Pa tte rn s (1995) Deregulation and Non-tar iffBarriers (1995 )

S Y STE M S R ESE AR CH AN D D EVELOP M E N T IN S T ITUTE OF JA P AN (SR&DI )

A DDRESS Shinjuku Takasago Building, i6-5 Tomihisa-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo Phone : 81 3 5379 59 1 1

YE A R OF ESTA BLISH M EN T 1969

ST A FF 5o researchers, 3 2 part-time research fellows, 6 supporting staff.

BUDGET us $ i5 million in i99z (government, contract research)

STATU S non-profit organisa ti on approved by the Ministry of Finan ce

CH ARA CTE R IS ATION aims to provide appropriate policy alternatives to meet the needs of Japan's economy by conducting surveys and research on PPBS, policy science, [ech- nologydevelopment, energy utilisation, information systems, and urban and rural issues .

PUBLIC ATIO N S Reference Systems for National Diet Records Land Planning Administration of Culture B S URVE Y S

KE N Y A

REGIONAL C ENTRE F OR SOC IO - ECONOMIC STUDIES AND DEV E LOPMENT (RECSSAD)

ADDRESS Mtito Andei Court i8, Moto Andei Road, Hurlingham, P .O . Box 55324 Nairob i

Phone : 254 2 723592

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 199 4 STAFF a researchers, 7 supporting staff BUDGET us $ 500,00 0 CHARACTERISATION objective is to identify and undertake policy-oriented socio-economic and environmental studies on African development issues .

PUBLICATION Informal Sector Assistance and Development Models in Kenya (1995)

KOREA

KOREA DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE ( KDI )

ADDRESS P. O . Box 11 3, Chungryang, Seoul 131 Phone : 8 2 z 958 4 11 4 URL : http ://kdiux . kdi .re . la/ftame/kdil .htm l

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 197 1 STAFF 117 researchers, 78 supporting staff BUDGET vs $ 20,000 (government, contract research) STATUS established by the government CHARACTERISATION provides expert analysis and advice on all aspects of long- and short-term government policies in areas ranging from domestic economic policy to international trade and investment .

THE N ETHERLA N D S

CE N T R A AL BU R E A U V OO R DE S T A TI S T I E K (C B S )/ ST A T I S TI CS N ETHERLA ND S

ADDRESS Prinses Beauixlaan428, P .O . Box 4000, z270 )m Voorburg Phone : 3i 70 337380 0 URL : http ://www .cbs .nl E-mail : pcry@cbs .nl

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 189 9 STAFF ( 1 995) 259 0 STATUS department of the Ministry of Economic Affairs CHARACTERISATION collects, analyses and publishes statistics on Dutch society WI SE B EFORE T H E E V E N T

za/2 5 years WEE

CENTRAAL PLANBUREAU (CPB) / CENTRAL PLANNING OFFIC E

ADDRESS Van Stolkweg 14, P. O . Box 8o 5 io, 250 8 Girt The Hague Phone : 3170 338338 0 uxr. : http ://www .cpb . nl/homepage .htm

YE A R OF ESTA BLISHME N T 194 5 STAFF 140 BUDGET us $ 8 million in 1992 (government, contract research) STATUS established by the governmen t CHARACTERISATION produces economic analyses and forecasts as a basis for informed policy- making by the national government and social organisations . PUBLICATIONS Centraal Economisch Plan (annual ) Macro -economischeuerkenningen (annual)

Economy and environment: in search ofsustainability (1997 ) Elections in the Netherlands . Economic consequences offiue party platforms (1997) ~3z

NIJE NRODE FORUM FOR ECONOMIC R E SEARCH (NYFER )

ADDRESS Straatweg i5, 362i ac Breukele n

Phone : 3i 346 29164 0 URL : http ://www .nyfer.nl/ E-mail : nyferC+nijenrode .n l YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 199 5 STATUS founded by Nijenrode Universit y CHARACTERISATION contributes to the public debate on social and economic issues in th e Netherlands by publishing its research results and discussing these with policy-makers from the public and private sector.

PUBLICATIONS Werk uoorgemeenten : de Atlas, in co-operation with VNG, (1997 ) `Met de spade op de schouder', infrastructuur en economischegroei, Specia l Study 1, (1995 )

RI J K S IN ST I TUUT VOO R V O LK SGEZO N DHEID E N M ILIEU ( RIVM )/ N AT I O N AL I NST I TUTE OF PU B L I C HEALT H A N D THE E N VI R O NM EN T

ADDRESS P.O . Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven

Phone : 3i 30 274911 i URL : http ://www .rivm .nl E-mail : infoC)rivm .n l CHARACTERISATION the institute performs research so as to be able to : I . describe the current status and future developments in public health and in the environment on the basis of (alternative) policy resolutions ; 2 . provide advice for the determination of standards, the admission of substances, including medicines and medical devices, and risk estimation ; 3 . provide policy support and B SURVE YS

government supervision in public health and environmental research issues and calamities .

PUBLICATIONS Zorgenuoormorge n

RIJK SP L A N OLOGISCHE DI E N ST ( R PD )/ N ATIO N AL PH YS I C A L P LA NNIN G A GENC Y

ADDRESS URL : t1ttP://www.minvrom .nl/rpd/orgrpd .htm

YEA R OF ESTABLISH M E N T (1941) 1964 STA TUS civil service of the Ministry of Housing, Pl anning and the Environment, established by the Law on Physical Plannin g

CH A R A CTE R IS ATIO N the RPD is responsible for the arrangement of the physical space in the Netherlands . The agency initiates and co-ordinates the government's physical policy.

SOC I AAL EN CULTU R EEL P LANBUREAU ( SCP )/ SOC I A L AN D CULTU RAL PL ANNIN G OFFIC E X3 3

ADDRESS J .C . van M ark en l a an 3, P . O . B o x 37,2290 AA Rijswijk Phone : 317o3i987o o URL : http ://www.scp .nl/

YE A R OF ESTA BLISH M E N T 1 973 STAFF 8o, including 65 researcher s

STATU S established by Royal D e cree, comes under the Ministry of Welfare, Health and Cultural Affairs .

CH A R A CTERIS ATIO N conducts research on social and cultural developments and publishes reports on request or at its own initiative . Duties are : to desc ribe the social and cultural situation in the Netherlands and expected developments ; to contribute towards responsible choices of objectives and resources in social and cultural policy and to develop alterna ti ves ; to assess government policy, especially inter- ministerial policy.

PUBLIC A TIO N S Social and Cultural Report (bi-annual) Social and Cultural Survey (annual) Social and Political Attitudes in Dutch Society (1993) Attitudes to Inequality and the Role of Government (iggo)

Women on the move (1 9 8 5 )

N EW ZEALA N D

INSTITUTE OF POLICY STUDIES (IP S

ADDRESS Victoria University of Wellington, P .O . Box 60o Wellington Phone : 64 4 471 530 7

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1983 STAFF 2 researchers, 3 supporting staff WI SE BEFORE THE EVE N T

20125 years WRR

BUDGET (government and private sector)

CH ARA CTERIS A TIO N as a link between academic research and public policy, the institute is concerned with research on political, social and economic issues, international relations, industry policy and environmental issues . PUBLIC A TIO N S Judith Davey, Social Assessment and Central Government (1995 ) Grant Hewison, Reconciling Trade and the Environment: Issues for New

Zealand (1995)

N E W Z E A L AN D FUTU R ES TRU ST IN C .

ADDRESS P.O . Box i2-oo8, Wellington E-mail : furures@actrix .gen .n z YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 98 2 STAFF 8 board members, io - zo staff DISCIPLINES mainly natural sciences, also social science s BUDGET us $ 35,000 (donations, membership fees, companies, contract research ) STATUS private foundatio n X34 CHARACTERISATION the objectives of the Trust are to encourage and promote public interest , awareness and debate concerning New Zealand's possible futures ; to assis t organisations to incorporate futures thinking and techniques in their stra - tegic planning processes; to be New Zealand's key point of access to the global pool of knowledge of futures issues . PUBLICATIONS Future Times (periodical) Our Country : Our Choices (1996 )

OFFICE OF THE CHIEF SCIENTIS T N E W Z EALA N D MINI STRY O F R ESEARC H , SC I E N CE AN D TEC H NOLOG Y

ADDRESS E-mail : postmaster@morst .govt .nz

STAFF 6

BUDGET US $ 3 million

STATU S public

CH A R A CTERIS ATIO N the Ministry is the principal policy adviser to the government on science and technology, including advice on science prioriti es and funding . It also maintains an information base on science and technology indicators, ad- ministers inter-national science agreements and maintains an overview of funding . It plays an important role in ensuring the provision of scientific and technical input into government policy development in general and in maintaining good liaison with the science community . B SURVEYS

N ORWAY

INSTITUTT FOR AL TE RNATIV U T VIKLINGSFORSKNING ( IADR )

ADDRES S P.O . Box 870 Sentrum, 0104 Oslo i Phone : 47zio67o 8

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 197 9 BUDGET us $ 25,ooo in 1992 (donations, government ) CHARACTERISATION conducts research into `human-oriented alternatives' to establish strategies for social, economic, political, cultural and economic development. PUBLICATIONS Scandinavian Journal ofDeuelopmentAlternatiues (periodical )

IN ST I TUTT FOR SOC IA LFORS KN I N G ( INA S )/ IN ST I TUTE OF A PPLIED SOC IA L R ESEARC H

ADDRESS Munthesgate 3i, oz6o Oslo z Phone : 47 z 55451 0 X35 YE A R OF ESTABLISH M ENT 195 0

STA TUS parent organisation is the Ministry of Educati on and Researc h

CHARACTERISATIO N performs research activities on socio-scienti fi c topics, e .g . social conditions and social change in Norwegian society ; public health and welfare ; welfare state ; housing and social security.

PUBLICATIONS Jou rnal of Social Research (periodical) Focus on the Labour Market (periodical )

PHILIPPI N ES

IN STITUTE FOR I NTE R NA TI O N AL A N D S T RATEG I C STU DI ES (ISS )

A DD R ES S UAP Building, Pearl Drive, Ortigas complex, Pasig, Metro M anila Phone : 63 2 6 34 28 3 1

STAFF 6 researchers, 2 supporting staff

BUDGE T us $ 2 5 0 , 00 0 (international organisations, contract research)

CH A R A CTERIS A TIO N conducts research on political and economic issues in the Asia - Pacific region, policy issues, and political economy . P UBLIC A TIO N S The Public Telecommunications Policy act of the Philippines (1995) The Liberalized Entry of Foreign Banks (1993 )

POLA N D

K O MI TET P RO G N O Z " P OL KA W XXI W IE K U " POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

ADDRESS Palac Kultury i Nauki, P1 . Defilad i, oo-9oi Warszawa Phone : 620 33 76 W ISE B EFO R E T H E EVEN T

2 015 years WRR

YE A R OF EST A BLISH M E N T 196 9 STATUS non-governmental organisatio n CHARACTERISATION deals with interdisciplinary studies of the future . Established on the initiative of academic circles, which observed a growing need for long-term studies . The goal of these studies is to identify and investigate global trends, new events and developments, opportunities and threats for the future . PUBLICATIONS Leszek Kuznicki, Poland in the Year2olo . An Optimistic Forecast Stanislaw Albinowski, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations. Studies on the World Economy on the Threshold of the 21st Century Poland on the Road to a United Europe Is it Worth Thinking about the Future

RUSSI A

R USS IAN INDE PEN DEN T IN STIT U TE O F SOCIAL AND NATIONAL PROBLEMS (RNISINP ) i3 6 ADDRESS Ul . W ilg e lm a Pika, d . 4 , k. i, Mosco w 1292 56 Phone : 7 095 i 8iz27o YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 199 1 STAFF 40 researchers, zo supporting staff BUDGET (foundations, donations, sales, contract research ) CHARACTERISATION conducts scientific forecasts of socio-political developments and investi - gates administrative decision-making . Attention is paid to human rights and democracy, sociological analyses of international conflicts, social-economi c research, social forecasts and marketing, information-analysis programs , and the political and economic history of Russia .

PUBLICATIONS The Formation of the Civil Society in Russia (1995) Interaction of Political and National-Ethnic Conflicts (1994 )

SI N GAPOR E

I N ST I TUTE OF POLIC Y STUDIES ( IP S )

ADDRESS Hon Sui Sen Memorial Libra ry Building, Kent Ridge Drive 119 26o

Phone : 65 7792633 URL : h ttp : //odin . paci fi c . netsg/ipsi E-mail : ipsQpacific . net .s g

R OF EST BLISHME N YE A A T 1987 STAFF io researchers, 8 supporting staff BUDGET (government, foundations) STATUS private company CHARACTERISATION the tPS acts as a bridge between government, business community, scholars, journalists . I t studies local entrepreneu r s hip, foreign investme n ts, manage- B SURV E Y S

ment of ethnical relations, demographic trends and policy, environment , urban issues, public health, international relations . PUBLICATIONS Giok Ling Ooi (ed), Environment and the City: Sharing Singapore's Experience and Future Challenges (1995 ) International Ventures : Finding Key Executives (1995 ) Mahizhnan Arun (ed), Heritage and Contemporary Values (1993)

SOUTH AFRIC A

A FR I C A IN ST I TUTE OF SOUT H AFR I C A

ADDRESS PO Box 630, Pretoria oooi Phone : iz328697 0 URL : http ://bendi . co . za/africain /

YE A R OF ESTA BLISH M E N T i96o

ST A FF 8 researchers, 14 support staff X37 BUDGET (Ministry of Art, Culture, Science and Technology)

ST ATUS non-governmental organisatio n CHARACTERISATION the institute is governed by a council comprising representatives of al l South African universities and other Africanist experts . Research activitie s concern contemporary issues in South Africa, including economic and human development, problems of political change and transition, domestic and regional security issues, infra-African relations, and global trends an d tendencies affecting the African continent .

AFRICAN STUDIES INSTITUT E

ADDRESS i Ja n Smuts Av e ., Johannesburg 2o5o

Pho ne : 11 716241 4

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1973 ST A FF 7 researchers, z technicians , 3 support staff STATU S academic, integral unit of the University of Witwatersran d

CH ARA CTERIS ATION conducts a multidiscip li nary research program in archaeology, social anthropology, economics, geography, histo ry and social history, linguistics, literature, po liti cal science, and sociology , as they relate to problems in southern Africa . W ISE BEFORE T H E E V E N T

20/25 years WR R

SPAI N

CE N T R E C A TALA DE PROS P ECT I V A

ADDRESS Calle Mallorca z85, Pral . za, 08037 Barcelona

Phone : 34 3 20 7 1 7 1 6 URL: http : //www/unesco-catalunya .com/futuren .htm E-mail : eunescocat @ cc . uab.es

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1973

STAFF 1 5

BUDGET (membership fees, subsidies)

STATUS commercial, member of the Federacib d'Organitzacions Catalanes

Internacionalment Reconegudes (FOC I x) that receives technical support o f the Centre UNESCO de Catalunya

CHARACTERISATION expertise : applied futures researches; communication, information, cultural development, education, tr aining, employment, work, environmenta l problems, futures research, human values and attitudes, management , X38 physical planning, politi cal sciences .

PUBLICATIONS Advancing Democracy and Pa rticipa tion; Challenges for the Future (1992)

SRI LANK A

M A R GA IN STITUT E

ADDRESS 93/lo Dutugemunu Mawatha, Kirillapone, Colombo 5, Western Province

Phone : 94 1 58518 6 URL : 11ttp ://www.lanka .net/lisiz/yel-pags/marga /

YE AR OF ESTA BLISHME N T 197 2 STAFF z2 researchers, 37 supporting staff BUDGET (international organisations, foundations, contract research) STATUS private non-profit Organisatio n CHARACTERISATION the institute is concerned with multi-disciplinary research on issues that are relevant to the formulation of development policies . PUBLICATIONS Development Models (1995) Climate Change in Asia (1994) What is Democracy (1994) What is Market Economy (1994) B SURVEYS

SWEDE N

FORS KN IN G SR D S N A MND E N ( FRN )/ S W E DI SH C OU N C I L F O R P L AN N IN G AND COORDINATION OF RESEARC H

ADDRESS P. O . Box 6710,113 85 Stockholm Phone : 46 8 6 1 o 060 0 URL : http ://www.frn.se/english.htm l YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 97 7 STATUS established by decision of the Swedish governmen t CHARACTERISATION the institute initiates and supports research that is of special importance t o society ; it allocates funds for the acquisition by other bodies of expensiv e scientific equipment ; and to improve information on research and the role of research in society. Research themes include natural resources ; techno] - ogyand science ; and future-oriented research .

INSTITUTET FOR FRAMTIDSSTUDIER / INSTITUTE FOR FUTUR E S STUDIES i39 (FORMERLY SECRETARIA T F OR FUTURES STUDIES )

ADD R ESS ro Box 59 1 , S - 101 3 1 Stockholm Phone : 4 6 8 402123 1 URL : http ://www .framtidsstudier.se/english.htm E-mail : [email protected] YE A R OF ESTA BLISHME N T (1 973) Ig8 8 ST A FF 9 foundation board members ; 4o researcher s

BUDGET us $ 2 . 5 million (state grants, agreements with companies, grants of public and private institutions )

STA TU S the government appoints the founda tion boar d

CH A RACTERISATIO N mission of the Secretariat for Futures Studies was to have futures research being done in order to present alternatives for political decision-making ; and to s ti mulate public participation in the debate about the possible future of Sweden . In 19 88 the Secretariat was replaced by the Institute that conducts interdisciplina ry research in the areas of lifestyle and labour, the creative society , sustainable living arrangements, health and welfare . Purpose of the futures studies is to lay a foundation for a general debate and to provide strategic alternatives to government and private sector .

W O RK I N G PR OG RAMM E The Future Use ofTime and Space by People The Future Media Societ y Ideologies, L(fe Values, Values and Life-styles Creative Education and Life-long Learning Societies of Sustainable Developmen t Market and Politics as Decision-making Systems Planning Analysis, Forecasts and Global Studies Ethics, Conflicts and Decisions Idea Development and Paradigm Changes W ISE BEFORE T H E E V E NT

2012S years WRR

Network Analysis, Virtual Reality and Artificial Worlds Complex and Dynamic Systems

STUDIEFORBUNDET NARINGSLIV OC H SAMHALLE (SNS)/ B US IN ESS AN D SOC I AL R ESE A RC H I N ST I TU T E

ADDRESS Skoldungagatan z, 114 27 Stockholm Phone : 46 8 232520

URL : http ://www.sns .se/

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 194 8 BUDGET US $ 500,000 (membership fees, science foundations, sales) STATUS association with 2500 members in z6 local groups CHARACTERISATION provides an independent forum for the open exchange of views o n economic, technical and social issues, with the aim of challenging people in business and politics to re-examine traditional viewpoints . The SNS initiates scientific and policy research, organises seminars, publishes reports, etcetera . i4o

S WITZERLAN D

P ROG N OS - EUROPEISCHES Z E N T R U M FUR WIR T SC HAFTF O R SC HUN G UND ST RATEGIEBERATUN G

ADDRESS Missionsstrasse 6z, Basel

Phone : 41 61327320 0 E - mail : 100 73 . 2636@compuserve . com

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1959

STAFF 2G 0

B UDGET US $ 12 million S tatus commercia l CHARACTERISATION conducts research in economic and technical areas in several fields of expertise ; consulting activities in the same areas ; publishes reports on various aspects of public and/or private planning activities . PUBLICATIONS PrognosTrendLetter;World Report -DieEntwicklungbiszumJahrezooo Europa in der Weltwirtschaftoon morgen (1995) Energieverbrauch: Kostenwahrheit ohne Stoat? (1995 )

SCH W E I ZER I SCHE V EREI NI GU N G FU R ZU K U N FTFORSC H UNG (S ZF )

ADDRESS Netz elen 155, 626 5 R ogg li s wil Phone : 41 62754136 7

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1970

STAFF 1 BUDGET us $ 70,000 (government subsidies, membership fees, meetings) STATUS co mmerc i al B S U RV E Y S

CHARACTERISATION future-oriented studies concerning S wi s s social policy . PUBLICATION P. Fuglistaler-Wamer eta!, Vision einer sozialen Schweiz (1996 )

ST . GALLER ZE N TRU M FUR Z UKUNFTFORSCHUNG (SG ZZ )

ADDRESS Dufourstrasse 30, CH-gooo St . Gallen Phone : 71 244281 6

U R L : http ://www.unisg.ch/-sgzz/

E-mail : hans-georg.graf@sgzz .unisg .ch

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT (1968) 197 2

STAFF 1 1

DISCIPLINES economics BUDGET US $ I R] 1 11 10R STATUS commercia l CHARACTERISATION the SGZZ studies long-term social and economic development perspectives for the Swiss government, businesses, organisations etc . PUBLICATIONS H .G . Graf, Trends in Personal Transport to2o 1 5 0 995) .G . Graf, European Construction to 2000 (1995) 1H

TAIWA N

IN STITUTE FOR N AT I ONAL POL I CY RESEARCH ( IN P R )

ADDRESS 5F iii Sung-Chiang Road, Taipei

Phone: 886 2 5a99i8 i

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 198 9 STAFF io researchers, zz supporting staff CHARACTERISATION goals are to advance democratic and constitutional government ; to promote a liberal economic system ; to encourage modern social values and . Areas of research are economic, political and social issues ; industry policy ; development ; security and defence ; international relations and regional studies .

PUBLICATIONS Hung-mao Tien (ed), Taiwan's Electoral Politics andDemocratic Transition :

Riding the Third Wave (1996 ) Yun-han Chu, Crafting Democracy in Taiwan (1992)

THAILA N D

NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION (NIDA )

ADDRESS Sukhapibal 2, Klong Chan, Bangkok 10240 Phone : 66 z 377740 0 URL: http ://www.nida .ac .th/ YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 196 6 STAFF 8 researchers, io supporting staff

BUDGET us $ 9 million (government, tuition fees) WISE BE F OR E THE EV E N T

20 /2 5 y ea rs WR R

CHARACTERISATION performs economic, social, and political research to support the govern - ment's development policies . PUBLICATIONS The Impact ofSoc-io -economic Factors and Health Services on Adult Morbidi - ty in Thailand : A Multi-level Analysis (1993) Development of User Interfacefor a NIDA Process Oriented Simulatio n (1992) Corporate Disclosure : A Case of the Securities Exchange of Thailand (i99o)

THAILAND D E V EL OPMENT RES E ARCH INSTITUTE FOUNDA T ION (TDRI )

ADDRESS Raj a p a rk Build i ng, 163 A soke Ro a d , B a ngkok i oi io Phone : 66 2718546 o URL : http ://www .info.tdri .or .th/

YE A R OF EST A BLISH M E N T 1984

STA FF 128 BUDGET US $ 3 .5 million in ig92 (donors, contract research) STATUS non-governmental non-profit organisation recognized by the Royal Thai government CHARACTERISATION the TDRI conducts and promotes research on Thailand's social and economic development ; functions as an information center ; creates a network linking institutions and individuals engaged in policy research issues ; and dis- seminates the results of policy research . PUBLICATIONS Sussangkarn et al, Population and Economic Development in Thailand (iggi) Siamwella et al, The Thai Rural Credit System (iggo)

U N ITED KI N GDO M

A DA M S MI TH I NSTITUTE ( A S I

ADDRESS 23 Great Smith Street, London SWIP 3BL Phone : 44 1 71 X499 5 URL : h ttp ://www .cyberpoint .co . uk/asi/ YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 197 7 STATUS private and independent economic policy institute with departments in different countrie s CHARACTERISATION ASI staff advise government leaders and train government officials acros s five continents . Explores new ways of extending choice and competitio n into public services ; designs practical policy strategies; introduces innova - tive ideas into public policy debate . Develops policy including privatisation , regulatory reform and government restructuring . The Institute works as a catalyst, its small core staff identifying future issues, evaluating the options , and co-ordinating the work of a large resource bank of experts . CURRENT PROJECTS TaYReductio n (SELECTION) Benefits ofPrivatization Corporate Governance B SUR V EY S

Intellectual Property Welfa re State Reform Health Polic y

CENTRE FOR POLICY STUDIES (CP S

ADDRESS 52 Rochester Row, London, swip i1u Phone: 44171 8z8ii7 6

U R L : http://www .cps.org.uk/ YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1974

STAFF 4 STATUS established by members of the Conservative Part y CHARACTERISATION seeks to formulate policy options which encourage individual freedom and independence, economic enterprise and social responsibility . PUBLICATIONS David Willetts, Happy Families? Four Points to a Conservative Family Policy Damian Green, A Better BBC: Public Service Broadcasting in the '9o s

X43 DAVID HUME INSTITUT E

ADDRESS 21 George Square, Edinburgh, Ex8 9LD

Phone : 44 3165o 463 3 URL: http ://www.ed.ac .uk/-hume/

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 198 5 CHARACTERISATION aims to promote debate and research on economic and legal aspects of public policy questions . Research topics have a socio-economic, legal and ethical character. PUBLICATIONS Antony W .Dnes,OntheWrong Tracks : TheGovernment's Proposalfor Franchising Passenger Rail (i992) Alan Peacock, Graham Bannock, Corporate Takeovers and the Public Interest (1991 )

IN ST I TUTE FO R P U B LIC PO LI C Y R ESE AR CH (IPPR )

ADDRESS 30-32 Southampton Street, London wC2E7Rn Phone : 44171379940 0 URL : http ://www/ippr .org .uk/ YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 98 8

STAFF 1 5

BUDGET us $ i million (i99o ) STATUS founded to provide a counterbalance to the influence of the numerous right- inclined think tanks active in Britain under the post-1979 Thatcher government CHARACTERISATION promotes research on the economic, social and political sciences and in science and technology. It aims to educate the public . W ISE BEFORE THE EVEN T

2 o/z 5 y ea rs wrs x

PUBLICATIONS Frank Wilkinson, Why Britain Needs a Minimum Wage Oonagh McDonald, Swedish Models : The Swedish Model ofCentra( Government

NA TIO N AL IN S T ITUTE OF ECO N O MI C A N D SOCIAL R ESEA R CH ( NI ES R )

AD D R ES S 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square, London SWIP 3 HE Phone : 44 171 222766 5 URL : h ttp : //www . niesr. ac . uk/ E-mail : johnk@) niesr . ac .uk

YE A R OF EST A BLISHME N T 1 93 8 ST A FF f4o researchers, 14 supporting staff BUDGET us $ 6 million (1995 ) STA TUS private research institute, consultancy, founded in order to find answers t o unemployment CHARACTERISATION research is motivated by the desire to understand the conditions whic h support economic activity and growth in economic output . In the i95o s X44 NI ESR was asked by Sir Robert Hall at the Treasury to set up the firs t programme of economic forecasting in the UK .

POL I CY STUDIES I N ST I TUTE (PS I

ADDRESS ioo Par k V ill ag e E ast, London Nwi 3SR

Ph one : 44 171 387217 1 URL : http ://www .ps i .org.u k/

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 978 STAFF 2 4 counci l m ember s, 55 research er s

BUDGET us $ 5 million in 1995 ( Rowntree Memorial Trust, foundations, government) ST A TU S non-profit non-governmental organisation, most research for governmental agencie s

CH A R A CTERIS A TIO N result of a merger between the Political and Economic Planning ( PE P 1 93 1 ) and the Centre for Studies in Social Policy (CSSr 1972), its reconstitution as p si owed something to pressure for a B ri tish Brookings in the late 1970S . It maintains close links with Whitehall and Westminster but its links to academic social science are comparatively weak . P s i 's mission is to inform the policy making process through the conduct of high quality research and the ac ti ve dissemination of the research results . Research areas : arts and culture, criminal justice, disability, education and training, employment and unemployment, ethnic minorities, family life, health , indust ri al relations, information etc .

PUBLIC ATIO N S Policy Studies (periodical ) Steele, Informa tion for Citizenship in Europe (1997 ) H . Metcalf et al, Asian Self-employment; The interaction of Culture and Economics in England (1996) B SURVEY S

R. Ford, Childcare in the Balance; How Lone Parents Make Decisions about Work (1996) S . Selwood (ed), Cultural rends 2 4 : Books, Libraries and Reading and the Built Heritage (1996 ) J . Payne et al, Education and Trainingfor 1 6-i8 Year Olds ; Individual Paths and National Trends (1 9 96 ) R . Berthoud, R . Ford, Relative Needs; Variations in the Living Standards of Different Types of Households (19 9 6 )

UNI T ED STATE S

A M E RI CA N E N TERPRISE IN ST I TUTE ( A E I )

ADDRESS 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington DC 20036 Phone: 2o2862580 0 URL : http://www.aei .org/ E-mail : webmasterCilaei .org 1X45 YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1943

STAFF 5 0 DISCIPLINES economics, law, political science, international relation s BUDGET us $ 13 million in 1993 (companies, foundations and individuals) STATUS non-governmental Organisatio n CHARACTERISATION AEI sponsors research on government policy, economy, and American poli - tics . The institute aims to preserve and to strengthen the foundations of a free society-government, competitive private enterprise, vital cultural an d political institutions, and vigilant defence-rigorous inquiry, debate, an d writing . RESEARCH (1997) Un de rsta nding Economic Inequality Social Security and Entitlements Refor m Health, S afety, and En viro nm e n tal Regulatio n International Trade Tax Refo r m Am erica n Politics an d P olitica l In stit u tio ns Child and Family Welfare Legal and Constitutional Studies Religion, Capitalism, and Democracy Fun da m e n ta l R efo rm of t he us Defe n se Str u cture

BR OO KIN GS IN ST I TU TI O N

ADDRESS 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036 Phone : 2o2797600 0 URL : http ://www.brook .edu/ E-mail : brooldnfo@brook .edu

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT (igi6Institute forGovernment Research) i927 W ISE B EFO R E T H E EVE N T

: o/25 years wRR

ST A FF io8 researchers (i6 non-resident) BUDGET us $ Zo million in 1993 (donations, foundations, companies, individuals)

STA TU S non-profit non-governmental organisatio n

CH A R A CTE R IS ATIO N typical "university without students" . Brookings is the oldest think tank in the us, seeking to improve the performance of American institutions, the effectiveness of government programs, and the quality of US public policies . It addresses current and emerging policy challenges and offers practical recommendations for dealing with them, expressed in language that is accessible to policy makers and the general public alike . PUBLIC ATIONS R .D . Reischauer, Setting National Priorities: Budget Choices for the Nex t (F ALL199 6) Centur y H . J . Aar o n, W.G . G a le , A Citizen's G u ide to Fundam ental Tax Refo rm H . J . A aro n , W.G . Ga l e, E co no m ic Effects of Fundam ental Tax Refo rm D .E . S i c hel , Th e C o mp u te r R evolu tion : Th e Econo m ic Perspectiv e J . M . E pste in , R .L . A xte ll , G r owing Ar tificia l Societies : Socia l Scien ce Fro m the Bottom Up D .E . Stokes, Pasteur's Quadrant: Basic Science and Technological Innovation i46 S . A . Bind e r, S .S . Smi th , Politics or Principle? Filibustering in the United States Se n ate

CASCADE POLICY IN STITUT E

ADDRESS 81 3 S .W . Alder, Suite 707, Portland, Oregon 97 205 Phone : 503 242 090 0 URL: h ttp : //www .CascadePolicy . org/ E-mail : info@CascadePolicy. org YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 99 1 BUDGET (foundations, companies, individuals, expressly not from governments ) STATUS non-profit non-governmental Organisatio n CHARACTERISATION explores and promotes answers to Oregon's policy questions from a limite d government, free-market perspective . Part of its mission is the public dis - semination of voluntary, market-oriented solutions to Oregon's publi c policy questions . Functions as a networkagent for similar (classic-liberal ) organisations . PUBLICATIONS R . Pozdena, Power to the Student: An Alternative to Higher Education Funding Increases (1996 ) P.R . Farago, Campaign Finance : Unprincipled Reforms, Counterproductiv e Results (1997 ) P.J . Ferrara, Power to the People - Positive Alternatives to the Oregon Healt h Plan (1994 ) A .M . Rufolo, Cost-based Road Taxation (1995) B SURVEYS

CATO INSTITUT E

ADDRES S tooo Massachusetts Avenue, N .W., Washington DC 20001-540 3 Phone : 702 842 020 0 vx L: http ://www.c ato .o rg/ E-mail : Cato @) cato . org YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 97 7 STAFF 36 senior staff, 14 senior policy staff, i6 directors, 8o associates, fellows an d adjunct scholar s BUDGET us $ 4 million in i99i (foundations, businesses, individuals, expressly no t from the government) STATUS non-profit non-governmental organisation founded by activists involved i n California's Libertarian part y CHARACTERISATION the mission of the Cato institute is to increase the understanding of publi c policies based on the principles of limited government, free markets, indi - vidual liberty, and peace . PUBLICATIONS Affirmative Action Fraud : Can We Restore the American Civil Rights Vision? X4 7 (1996 ) Why Schools Fail (1996) Through Green-colored Glasses : Environmentalism Reconsidered (1996) Tripwire : Korea and U.S . Foreign Policy in a Changed World (1996 )

Economic Freedom of theWorld: 1 975 - 1 995 (1996 ) The End ofWe fare : Fighting Poverty in the Civil Society (1996 ) Money and Markets in the Americas: New Challenges for Hemispheric Integration (1996) Telecompedtion : The Free Market Road to the information Highway (1993 ) Reaganomics: An Insiders Account of the Policies and the People (1988)

CENTER F OR THE S T UDY OF SOCIAL POLICY (CSS P

ADDRESS 1 25o Eye Street NW, Suite 503, Washington DC 2000 5 Phone : izo237ii56 5 Y EAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1979 (Center for the Study of Welfare Policy) CHARACTERISATION aims to carry out interdisciplinary research on social policy issues, focusin g on the effects of federal policy decisions on states, communities, familie s and individuals as well as employers, voluntary organisations and informa l care systems . The Center seeks to anticipate long-term problems .

CENT E R ON BUDG E T AND POLICY PRIORITIE S

ADDRESS 777 No rth Capitol Street NE, Suite 705, Washington DC 20002 Phone : izoz4o8io8 o URL: h ttp ://www.cbpp . html E-mail : bazie@center .cbpp . org/ WI SE BEFORE TH E EVE N T

2 01251>LOI5 WRR

YE A R OF EST A BLISH M E N T 198 1

STAFF 20 BUDGET us $ i .5 million (mostly from foundations) CHARACTERISATION conducts research on a range of government policies and programs, with an emphasis on those affecting low- and middle-income people . PUBLICATIONS Budget Reductions Under the Dole Tax Plan : Where and How Much (1996) R . Kogan, R . Greenstein, The New Republican Budget Plan : Simply Slowing the Rate of Growth? (1996 ) R . Kogan, R . Greenstein, A Kinder, Gentler Budget? How Deep are the Republican Budget Reductions? (1996 ) Bearing Most of the Burden : How Deficit Reduction During the 104th Congress Concentrated on Programs for the Poo r

COMMITTEE FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMEN T ( CED )

ADDRESS 477 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 1002.2

X 48 Phone : i uz 688 zo6 3 URL : http : //ced . sohonet .com / YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 194 2 STAFF 4 0 BUDGET us $ 4 .5 million (membership fees, foundations, sales ) CHARACTERISATION founded by businessmen concerned about the transition from a war - production economy to a peacetime economy . The CED still serves as a vehicle for business executives to meet with policy researchers and t o formulate approaches to some of the leading issues of the day. PUBLICATIONS American Workers and Economic Change (1996 ) Connecting Students to a Changing World: A Technology Strategy fo r Improving Mathematics and Science Education ( 199 6 ) Who Will Pay for your Retirement? The Looming Crisis (1996 ) Cut Spending First: Tax Cuts Should be Deferred to Ensure a Balanced Budge t (i995)

CO M PETIT I VE ENTERPR I SE IN ST I TUTE (CE I )

ADDRESS iooi Connecticut Av enu e, NW, S uite i 25 o, Washin g t on DC 20036 Phone: 1 202 331 101 0 URL: tlttp ://wWW . CEI . Oig/ E-mai l : info@cEi .org YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 198 4 STAFF i2-member federal advisory commission made up of representatives from business, labour, government and the public STATUS non-profit non-governmental organisation CHARACTERISATION utilises a five-point management approach to affecting public policy : analysis, education, coalition building, advocacy and litigation . The institute emphasises the marketing and implementation of classical liberal ideals . B SURV E YS

CONGRESSIONAL INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE ( CIF )

ADDRESS 412 First Street SE, Washington DC 20003 Phone: i 202 863 170 0

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1979 CHARACTERISATION provides research material, educational services and information on national and international trends to congressmen, business leaders and academics .

CONG R ESS I O N AL RESEA R C H SE RV ICE (C R S )

ADDRESS Library of C o ng r e ss, io First Street SE, Wa shing ton D C

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 9 70

STAFF 864 (i99o ) BUDGET us $ 445 million (i99o ) STATUS research service of the Library of Congress CHARACTERISATION its sole purpose is to provide information and policy analysis to Congress . 1X49 Among the services provided are information and reference, in-depth policy analysis, seminars for members and staff, training programs for staff, issue briefs, videotape programs, in-person briefings, and other analytical support.

COU N C I L OF ECO N O MI C ADV I S O R S

ADDRESS UR L: t1 tCp ://www.Whitehouse .gov/ WH / EO P/C EA/htrri ]/C EA. I1 tID1 STATUS advisory council of the presiden t PUBLICATIONS Job Creation and Employment Opportunities : The United States Labor

Market, 1993 - 1996 Educating America : An Investmentfor our Future

Towards Competition in International Satellite Services : Rethin king the Role

OfI N TELSA T Supporting Research and Development to Promote Economic Growth: The Federal Government's Role

ECO N O MI C POL I CY IN ST I TUTE (E PI )

ADDRESS 166o L Street, NW, Suite i2oo, Washington DC 20036 Phone : i 202775 88i o

URL : tlttP ://w-ww .epinet .org/

E-mail : economic@cais .com

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1986

STA F F 3 0 BUDGET us $ i million in i99i (initial funding from a coalition of labour unions) STATUS non-profit non-governmental organisation W ISE BEFORE T H E EVE N T

2o/25 years WR R

CHARACTERISATION founded by a group of economic policy experts . It seeks to broaden th e public debate . PUBLICATIONS H . Chernick, Wide Castfor Safety Net: Over Time, Middle Class as well as Poor Rely on Entitlement Help M .B . Sawicky, Falling Flat: The Dubious Casefor the Flat Tax J . Bernstein, Where's the Payofj7 The Gap between Black Academic Progress and Economic Gain s Baker, L . Mishel, Profits Up, Wages Down : Worker Losses Yield Big Gains fo r Business

ETHICS AND PUBLIC POLICY CENTER (EPP C

ADDRESS ioi5 i5th St . NW, Washington DC 20005 Phone : i 2o2 68z izo o URL: http://www.eppc .org/

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 197 6 STAFF 4 researchers, 8 supporting staff i5o BUDGET (membership fees) CHARACTERISATION organises seminars, conferences, research and publications on religion and society, foreign policy, law and society, education and society and business and society. The Center aims to clarify and reinforce the bond between the Judeo-Christian moral tradition and the public debate over domestic and foreign policy issues .

HAWAII S TAT E R ESE AR C H CE N TE R FOR FU T U R E STUD Y ( HR C F S )

ADDRESS Secreta ri at University of Hawaii, 24 24 Maile Way, Honolulu 9 6822 Phone : i 8o8 956 2 88 8 URL : h ttp : //www. soc . hawau . edu/-future/ E-mail : pollard@hawaii .ed u

YEAR OF EST A BLISH M E N T 197 1 STATUS created by the Hawaii State Legislature ; part of the Social Science Research Institute of the university of Hawai i CHARACTERISATION serves as a research arm for public agencies that require assistance in loca- ting future-oriented information or experts . The Center maintains a data- base of studies, individuals, and groups concerned with futures .

HE RI TAGE FOU N DAT IO N

ADDRESS 21 ¢ Massachusetts Ave . , N . E . , Washington D C 20002 Phone : 1 202 54 6 44 0 0 ux L : h ttp : //www. heritage . org E-mail : gabrona@heritage . org

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 197 3

STAFF 135 B SURVEY S

BUDGET us $ i8 million (endowment income, foundations, companies, individuals, sales )

ST A TU S non-governmental organisation

CH A R A CTERIS A TIO N dedicated to the principles of free competitive enterprise, limited government, individual liberty, and a strong national defence . Research topics : budget and taxation, educa tion, foreign policy, national security, crime and law, environment, governing, regulations and infras tructure, economic and political theory, family, culture and community, health care and welfare, trade and commerce .

PUBLIC A TION S P. J . Ferrara, What Really Happened in the i98os ? A . D . Thierer, Energizing America : A Blueprintfor Deregulating the Electricity Market (1997 ) Needed: A Congressional Freedom oflnformation Act Lebed Dismissed but not Tame d

H UDSO N IN ST I TUTE ~ 5' ADDRESS P. O . Box 26 -919, Indianapolis IN 466-ogi9

Phone : 1 317 545 1 00 0 URL : h ttp ://www .hud s on .org/ E-mail : tdean @ hudson . org

YE A R OF ESTABLISH M EN T i96i

ST A FF 2 5

BUDGET us $ 5 .5 m i llion (i99i )

STATU S non-profit non-governmental organisation founded by Herman Kahn

CH ARA CTERIS A TIO N analyses and makes recommendations about public policy for business and government executives and for the public at large . The Institute is engaged in speculative studies of the future, as well as studies of defence, international politics, energy and education .

PUBLICATION S K . Pitsch, The Innovation Age : A New Perspective on the Telecom Revolution G .L . Geipel, R .A . Manning (eds), Rethinking the Transatlantic Partnership: Security and Economics in a New Era G .S . Walden, Best Behavior : The Clinton Administration and Ethics in Governmen t

C .E . Finn Jr ., D . Ravitch, Education Reform 1994-199 5 D .T. Avery, Saving the Planet with Pesticides and Plastic : The Environmental Triumph of High-yield Farmin g W.B . Johnston, A .H . Packer, Workforce zoo o

INDEPENDENT INSTITU T E

ADDRESS i34 N in e ty -Eighth Avenue, Oakland, CA 94603 Phone : 1 415 63z 136 6 URL : h ttp : //Independent .org/ E-mail : InfoO Independent . org WI SE B EFORE T H E E V E N T

20/25 years WR R

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 198 6 STAFF 6 executive staff, 8 directors, 50 (academic) advisors BUDGET (foundations, companies, individuals, sales) STATUS non-governmental organisation CHARACTERISATION stimulates comprehensive studies on the political economy of critical socia l and economic issues in the areas of politics, law, society, economy, educa - tion, defence, foreign affairs, natural resources, health care, energ y PUBLICATIONS Macey, Wealth Creation as a "Sin " Benson, Privatization in Criminal Justice Wildavsky, Regulation ofCarcinogens: Are An imal Tests a Sound Foundation ? Benson, Rasmussen, Illicit Drugs and Crime Brakel, Prisons and Correction s Kay, WolfRecouery, Political Ecology and Endangered Specie s Evers, Victim's Rights, Restitution, and Retributio n DiLorenzo, Propaganda of the "Nanny State "

X5 2 I NST I TU T E FOR P OLICY I NNO VAT I O N ( I PI )

ADDRESS z5o South S te mm ons, Sui t e 306, Lewisville , Te x as 75 0 6 7 Phone : 972 219 o81 1 URL: http ://ww w.ipi .org / YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 198 7 BUDGET (foundations, companies, individuals, expressly not from governments ) STATUS non-profit non-governmental organisatio n CHARACTERISATION founded to research, develop, and promote innovative solutions to today' s public policy problems . iPi's focus is on approaches to governing tha t harness the strengths of individual liberty, limited government, and free markets . iPt concentrates on issues such as taxation and government spend - ing, economic growth initiatives, government regulation . PUBLICATIONS G . Robbins, A . Robbins, Administration and Pundits Have Lowered the Ba r for Economic Growth (1996 ) S . Moore, The Ruth about the "Reagan Deficits" (1996 )

INSTITUT E FOR THE FUTURE ( IFTF )

ADDRESS 2744 Sand H ill Road, M enlo Pa r k, CA 94025-7020 Phone : 1 415 854 6322 URL : http ://www .oftf.org/ YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 196 8 STAFF 22 researchers, 6 supporting staff BUDGET (membership fees, donations, sales, contract research ) CHARACTERISATION aims at enlarging the existing understanding of technological, environ - mental, and social changes and their long-range consequences . Focuses o n three main areas : forecasting and strategic planning, emerging informatio n technologies, and directions in health care . B SURVEYS

INSTI T UTE OF PUBLIC POLICY / GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY (TIP P

ADDRESS 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030

Phone : 1 703 993 2-z8 o URL: http ://policy .gmu .edu/

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 99 0 CHARACTERISATION interdisciplinary research on a wide variety of policy concerns .

J A M ES M AD I SO N IN ST I TUT E

ADDRESS 2017 Delta Blvd . Suite ioz, Tallahassee, FL, 32303 Phone : 1 904 386 313 1 URL: http ://JamesMadison . org MadisonJMIC)aol . com

YE A R OF EST A BLISH M E N T 198 7 ST A FF 1 4 research advisors, 1 2 other s BUDGET us $ 900,000 in 1995 (accepts no government funding) X53 ST A TU S non-profit non-governmental organisati on, merged with the Center for World Capitalis m

CH A R A CTERIS A TIO N dedicated to economic freedom, limited government, federalism, rule of law, and individual liberty with responsibility . The Institute focuses on innovative ideas and independent research for the common good of society, especially in Flo rida .

PUBLIC A TIO N S Public Subsidies to Pr ivate Corporations : Stop Violating the Florida Constitution! (Policy Report no. iq, August 1996) What Florida's University Graduates Don 't Know about History an d Government The Welfare State, Poverty , and Economic Opportunity Issues in Health Care Reform and Solutions that Will Work

M IL K E N IN STITUTE FOR J O B AN D CAP I TAL FOR M AT I ON ( MIJ CF )

ADDRESS i25o Fourth S tre e t, S e co nd F l oo r, Santa Moni ca, C A 90401 Phone : 1 310 998 26o o UR L : h ttp :// www. mijcf. org E-mail : [email protected]

STA TU S non-profit foundation

CHAR A CTERIS A TIO N supports research and public discourse o n the determinants of economic growth .

PUBLIC A TIO N S Solmon, L e ve n son ( eds), Lab or Ma rkets, Emp loym e n t P olicy, $ Jo b Creatio n Fagna no , We rber (ed s), Scho ol , Fam ily and Co mmunity In tera ctio n : A Vie w

from the Firing Lines (1994 ) E . Reardo n , Self-e mp lo ymen t a n d L ow Wage, Less S kille d Me n : Spi tti ng i n to the Wind? (Working paper 96-04) WI SE BEFORE T H E E V E NT

20/251)ea l3 WRR

A . R . Levenson, Recent Trends in Part-time Employment: Perception versus Reality (Working paper 9 6- 02)

MILL E NNI U M INSTITUTE (PREVIOUSLY : G L O BA L STUDIE S CEN T ER, THEN INSTITUTE FOR 2IST CENTURY STUDIES )

A D DR ES S 111 7 North i9th Street, Suite 900 , Arlington, vn asz0 9- 1 7 0 8 URL : http ://www.igc .apc .org/millenniu m E-mail : millennium@igc . apc . org

YE AR OF ESTA BLISH M EN T (1977-1980-)199 7

STA TUS non-profit non-governmental organisatio n

CH A R A CTERIS ATIO N supports research teams in various countries with fundraising, training and stimulation of expertise .

PUBLICATIONS (Institute for zest Century Studies) : Global 2000 Revisited: What Shall We Do ? Managing a Nation : The Microcomputer Software Catalog. Anju Reejhsinghani, Preparingforzooo (1995) X54 Studies for the 21st Century

NA T I O NA L CE N TER FO R P OLICY A NALYS I S ( N CP A )

ADDRESS 12 655 N . Central Expressway, suite 720 , Dallas, Texas 75 2 43 Phone : i z 1 4 386 6272 URL : http ://www.ncpa .org E - mail : ncpa@public-policy . org

YE A R OF ESTA BLISHME N T 198 3 ST A FF 1 3 researchers, zo supporting staff BUDGET us $ z . 5 million (founda ti ons, donations)

STATU S non-profit non - governmental organisation

CH A R A CTERIS ATIO N supports free enterprise, low taxes, limited government and a strong national defence . Provides policy makers with ti mely, detailed and accurate information about the impact of proposed policies and legisla ti on . The primary goal of the NCPA is to develop and promote private alternatives to government regula ti on and control, solving problems by relying on the strengths of the competitive, en trepreneurial private sector .

PUBLIC ATIO N S Making Drugs Safe and Available Without the FDA (1997) New Environmentalism (1997) The Economic Effects of the Dole Tax Plan (1996) Factories Behind Bars (199 6 ) The Economic Effects ofa Flat Tax (1996) Medical Savings Accounts : The Singapore Experience ( 199 6) Crime and Punishment in Texas : Update (1996) B S URVE YS

N O RTH E A ST- MI D W EST IN STITUT E

ADDRESS 2i8 D St ., SE, Washington DC 20003

U RL : }1CtP :// Www. il e mW . Oi g/ E-mail : gstarnes@nemw .org

YE A R OF ESTABLISH M E N T 197 8

STAFF ig researchers, z supporting staff

STA TU S non-profit non-governmental organisation

CH A R A CTERIS A TIO N seeks to enhance the region's economic vitality and environmental quality. It conducts research, develops public policies, provides technical assistance, sponsors regional conferences, and distributes publications .

PUBLIC A TIO N S Financing Manufacturing Efficiency and Growth : A Manufacturer's Guide to State and Federal Resource s Lessons from the Field: Unlocking Economic Potential with an Environmenta l Key Book of Common Data: Statistics for Federal Allocation Formula .

X55 N ORT HW EST P OLIC Y CE N TER / UNIV E R SITY OF WASH IN GTO N

ADDRESS Box 353°60, Sea ttle WA 9 8195-3060 Phone : zo6 543 7900 URL : http ://weber .u.washington .edu/-npcweb/ E-mail : npcbox@u .washington .edu

YE A R OF EST A BLIS HM E N T 198 7 STAFF 9 researchers . The activities of the Center are shaped by the Northwest Policy Center Leadership Council . The Council is composed of respected academic, business and civic leaders representing the five states served by the Center. They meet twice a year.

BUDGET (foundati ons, public agencies, private organisations)

ST ATU S operates within the Ins titute for Public Policy and Management at the Universi ty of Washington Graduate School of Public Affairs

CH A R A CTE R IS ATIO N dedicated to improving public strategies which foster the vitali ty of Northwest communities, the economic well-being of the region's people, and the health of the natural environment . The Center provides research, analysis, and advice to gove rnment in Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington . The Center's work focuses on : regional economic trends, entrepreneurial vitality , rural community development, workforce development, community and environment .

P U B LIC ATIO NS Between Safety Nets : Linking Distant Providers with Rural Community Care System s Beyond Polarization: Emerging Strategiesfor Reconciling Community and the Environmen t Building Forest Wealth : Incentives for Biodiversity, Landowner Profitability, and Value Added Manufacturing WI SE BEFORE THE EVEN T

2o/S s years WR R

PACIFIC R E SEARCH INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLIC Y ( P R I )

ADDRESS 75S San some S tree t S ui te 45 0 , Sa n Fra n c i sc o , CA 94111 Phon e : 1 415 989 08 3 3

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 197 9 STAFF 6 researchers, 8 supporting staff BUDGET us $ i .5 million (foundations, donations )

CHARACTERISATION defends the rights of individuals through policy research and a publi c

outreach programme . Research areas are health care reform, education ,

environment, tort reform, immigration.

PUBLICATION Terry L . Anderson, Sovereign Nations or Reservations? (1995 )

John A . Baden (ed .), Environmental Gore (1994 )

Richard B . McKenzie, What Went Right in the iy8os (1993 )

P R OG R ESS A N D FREEDO M FOU N DAT I O N

X 56 ADDRESS URL :http ://ww-w .townhall .com/pff/ E-mail : [email protected]

YEAR OF EST A BLISH M E N T 199 3 STATUS non-profit non-governmental organisatio n CHARACTERISATION organised to restore, renew and to recreate America's sense of its future, a future woven inextricably with the ideas of progress and freedom . PUBLICATIONS The FCC and the Telecom municarionsActof(igg6) :Putting Competition on Hold? (1996 ) J . Eisenach, Revolution or "Kakumei°? A Look at the Future of the Digital Revolution (1996 ) Yandle et al, Clean Air and Emerging Alternative Fuel Vehicles (1996 )

PROGRESSIVE POLICY IN ST I TUTE (PPI )

ADDRESS 3i 6 P ennsylva ni a Av e nue, S ui te 555 . W as hin g t o n DC 2000 3 P h one : i 202 5 47 000 1 E-mail : info@dlcppi .org

YE A R OF EST A BLISH M ENT 198 9

STA TU S non-governmental organisation founded by the Democratic Leadership Counci l

CH ARA CTERIS ATIO N develops alternatives to the exhausted debate between Left and Right. rpi advocates growth - oriented economic policies designed to stimulate broad upward mobility and foster a more inclusive, more democratic capitalism ; social policies that move beyond maintaining the poor to liberating them from poverty and dependence ; and a foreign policy of resolve in defending America's interests and promoting democracy abroad . B SURV E Y S

PUBL I C POL I CY I NSTITUTE CALIFOR N IA ( PP I C )

ADDRESS 50o Washington S tr eet, Suite Soo, San Francisco, CA 94111 Phone : 1 415 2 9 1 440 0 URL: http : //www .ppic . org/

YE A R OF EST A BLISH M E N T 199 4 DISCIPLINES economics, demography, political sciences, policy analysis, law, social psychology CHARACTERISATION research results are public, with a particular emphasis on ensuring tha t findings reach elected representatives and other public officials . nPtc' s current research agenda focuses on three program areas : population , economy and governance and public finance . PUBLICATIONS Michael A . Shires, Melissa Glenn Haber, A Review of Local Governmen t Revenue Data in California (1997 ) Thomas MaCurdy, Margaret O'Brien-Strain, Who Will Be Affected by Welfare Reform in California? (1997 ) Belinda I . Reyes, Dynamics oflmmigration : Return Migration to Western Mexico (1997) X57 Joanne Spetz, Nursing StaffTrends in Califo rn ia Hospitals : 1977 Through 199 5 (1996 )

R A N D CORPORAT I O N

ADDRESS 1700 Main Street, P .O . Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 Phone : i 310 393 041 1 URL : http ://www.rand .org/ E-mail : info@rand .org

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1940-45

STAFF ±70 0 DISCIPLINES including mathematics, statistics, economics technology, physics, social sciences, psychology, political sciences, policy analysis, art and literature, law

BUDGE T us $ 11 5 million (government, foundations, other organisations, individuals, companies , con tr act research) STA TU S non - governmental organisation

CHAR A CTERIS ATION RAND focuses on the nation's mo s t pressing policy problems . In the i96os, RAND research began addressing problems of domestic policy. RAND is divided in the following organisa ti onal units : army research division, criminal justice pro gram , health sciences program, institute for civil justice, institute on education and training, labour and population program, national secu ri ty research division, project AIR FORCE division, special programs . RAND research and analysis aim to develop innovative soluti ons to complex problems by bringing together researchers in all relev an t academic specialities ; to provide practical guidance by making policy choices clear and addressing bar ri ers to effective po licy implementation; to meet the WISE B E FOR E THE EVEN T

202 5 f>fAlS WRR

highest technical standards by employing advanced empirical methods an d ri gorous peer review ; to serve the public interest by widely dissemina ti ng research findings . There is a European office in Delft, the Netherlands, RAND's European-Ame ri can Center for Policy Analysis . PUBLICATIONS The Virtual Combat Air Staff The Promise ofInformation Technologies Russia 's Air Power at the Crossroads Drought Management Policies and Economic Effects in Urban Areas of

Cal ifornia , 1 9 87 - 1 992 Just, Speedy , and In expensive? An Evaluation of Judic ial Case Management Under the Civil Justice Reform Ac t Reforming and Conforming: NA S D C Principals Discuss School A c countability System s

RESOUR C ES FOR TH E FUTURE (R F

ADDRESS 1755 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington D C ~5$ Phone : 1 202 328 500 0 U R L : http ://www.rff.org E-mail : info@rfEor g YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1952 STAFF zo permanent and io temporary researchers BUDGET US $ 2 million (Ford Foundation and Rockefeller Foundation) STATUS non-profit non-governmental organisatio n CHARACTERISATION R FF uses tools of economics and other social science disciplines to examine long-term issues of natural resources and the environment .

RUSS EL L SAG E FOUNDATIO N

ADDRESS URL :http ://epn .org/sage .html E-mail : info@rsage .or g YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 190 7 STATUS foundation, publishing house and funding agent CHARACTERISATION a research center, a funding source for studies by scholars at other academi c and research institutions, and an active member of the nation's social science community. It also publishes books . The foundation now dedicate s itself exclusively to strengthening the methods, data, and theoretical core o f the social sciences as a means for improving social policies .

S A NTA FE I NST I TUTE (SF I )

ADDRESS 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, New Mexico 875 0 1-8943 Phone : i 505 984 88o o URL : tlttp : // www.santafe .edu/ E-mail : www@santafe .edu

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 9 84 STATUS non-governmental organisation B SURV E YS

CHARACTERISATION multidisciplinary research and education center, devoted to creating a new kind of scientific research community . PUBLICATION R . Axtell et al, Aligning Simulation Models: A Case Study (Working paper

95-07-65)

STA N FO R D R ESE A RCH IN STITUTE (S RI ) I NTER NA TIO N A L

ADDRESS 333 Ravenswood Avenue, Menlo Park, California 94025 Phone : 1 415 859 477 1

URL: }1 ttp :// WWW.S r i .CO m/

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 194 6

STAFF ±300 0 BUDGET vs $ 300 million in 1992 (contract research ) CHARACTERISATION SRI applies science and technology to assist in economic growth and development, in strengthening national security and in improving health and educational levels .

X59 TW E N T I ETH CE N TURY FU N D

ADDRESS 41 East 70th Street, New York, NY 10021 Phone : i 212 535444 1 URL : http ://www .tcf.org/ E-mail : xocthfund@iu .netcom .com

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 9 1 9

STAFF 2 8 BUDGET US $ 53 million in 1996 STATUS progressive foundatio n CHARACTERISATION sponsors and supervises research on economic, social and political issues, all with an eye to finding fresh approaches to the major issues of the day . PUBLICATIONS R .Kuttner, Euerythingfor Sale ; The Virtues and Limits ofMarkets M . Mandelbaum, The Dawn ofPeace in Europe C . Ascher et al, Hard Lessons: Public Schools and Privatization A . Rosenthal, Drawing the Line: Legislative Ethics in the State s

URBAN INSTITUT E

ADDRESS 2100 M Street, N .W ., Washington DC 20037

Phone : i 202 833 720 0 URL : http ://www .urban .org/ E-mail : webmaster@ui .urban .org YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1968

STAFF 246 BUDGET us $ 38 .5 million STATUS non-profit non-governmental organisation W ISH BEFORE T H E E V E N T

2025 years WR R

CHAR A CTERIS ATIO N investigates social and economic problems confronting the nation and gove rn ment policies and programs designed to alleviate such problems .

PUBLIC ATIO N S Steuerle, Bakija, Retooling Social Security for the zest Century: Right and

Wrong Approaches to Reform (1994 ) Ronald B . Mincy (ed), Nurturing Young Black Males (1994) George E . Peterson (ed), Big-City Politics , Governance, and Fiscal Constraints (1994) Reiss, Roth, Understanding and Preven ti ng Violence, Vol. III and IV (1994)

WAS HIN GTO N INSTITUTE FO R POL I CY STUDIES ( WI PS )

ADDRESS P. O . Box 2 ¢645, Sea ttle , Washington 9 8 1 24-o645 Phone : i 206 938 630 0 URL : }1ttp : // www.wips . org E-mail : wips@wips . or g

YE A R OF EST A BLISH M ENT 198 5 STAFF ( 1 99 1 ) 1 1 t6o BUDGET us $ 1 .3 million in iggi (funded exclusively by private sector ) CHARACTERISATION conducts social science research relevant to Washington State and the United States . Its central purpose is to bring new ideas to policy makers an d the state's citizens that will expand economic freedom and streamline th e size of government . PUBLICATIONS D . Rubin, Public Subsidies to Private Corporations (1996) E .R . Davis, Understanding Workers Compensation in Washington (1996) D . LaCourse, Three Strikes and You're Out and Hard Times forArmed Crime - A Review (1996 ) W. D . Egge r s, S tate Go vernmen t Privatization; D esign ing a Co mpreh en sive State-level Privatization Program (1996 ) D esigning a n Effective Bi llin g a n d Mo n ito r i ng S y ste m - How to M in imize Pro ble m s in Competitive Contracting i n coop e ratio n with the Re a so n Foundation ( 199 6 )

I N TER N ATIO N AL

CELLULE DE P R OSPECT I VE / FORWARD STUDIES U N I T

ADDRESS 25, ru e Archimcd e (bur. q /io), B -iooo Bru sse l Phone : 32 2 296039 2 E-mail : cdpgcec .b e

YEAR OF EST A BLISH M E N T 198 9

STAFF 1 2 DISCIPLINES economics, law, physics, theology, philosophy STATUS civil service of the president of the European Committee CHARACTERISATION co-ordinates research into long-term problems concerning the European integration, like issues of European competitiveness, cohesion, legitimation B S URVEYS

of European projects and governability . It organises seminars about science and culture . CURRENT PROJECTS Meaning and Future of the European Projec t Transition towards a Multipolar World, Economic Dimension Growth Competitiveness and Employmen t Future of Work and Future of the "European Model " Change of Governance and Evolu tion of European Societies PUBLICATIONS Premier rapport surlesinitiatives locales de dL~veloppementet d'emploi,di x le~ons pour les pactes teriitoriaux et locaux pour 1'emploi (1996) Michael D . Rogers (ed), Business and Environment (1996) Wolfgang Pape (ed), Shaping Factors in East Asia by the Year 2000 an d Beyond (1996 ) Organised Criminality and Security in Europe, in co-operation with

Fondazione Rosselli (1995 )

CLU B OF R O M E ~6 ~ ADDRESS 34 avenue d'Eylau, 75116 Paris Phone : 33 1 470445 2 5 URL : http ://www.clubofrome .org/ E - mail : executive . committee@clubofrome . org

YE A R OF ESTA BLISH M E N T 196 8 STATUS association with members in more than 5o countries CHARACTERISATION association of ecologists, economists and others who believe that the world is being threatened by exhaustion of natural resources and energy and that technology and science should have a different role in society.

INT ER N ATIONAL FUTU R ES LI B RARY / IN TER NA T I O N AL BIBL I OT H E K FOR Z U K UNFTSFRAGE N

ADDRESS Imbergsnasse z, 5020 Salzburg URL: http ://livenet.zukunft .de/isz/

YE AR OF EST A BLISH M ENT 198 6

STAFF 5 BUDGET us $ 130,000 (Austrian government) STATUS public institutio n CHARACTERISATION the basic function of the IBZ includes the providing, analysing and gather- ing of future-oriented publications .

IN TER NA T I O N AL I N ST I TUTE FOR A PPL I E D S Y STE M S AN ALYS I S ( IIA S A )

ADDRESS A- 236 1 Laxenburg, Austri a Phone : 02 236 7 1 5 21 0 URL: h ttp ://www. iiasa . ac .at/ E-mail : info@iiasa .ac . at W ISE B EFORE THE EVE N T

201251J[O/S WR R

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1 97 2 BUDGET (sponsored by 17 member organisations) STATUS established on the initiative of the USA and the former USS R CHARACTERISATION characterised by its international sponsorship, non-governmental status, broad interdisciplinary research agenda, world-wide network of collaborat - ing organisations, emphasis on problems that either are inherently global o r have universal relevance throughout the globe, and focus on scientifi c studies to inform public and private decision makers . The principal goal s are : to choose problems for which solutions will benefit the public, the scientific community, and national and international institutions ; to addres s critical issues in an innovative manner ; to provide timely and relevant infor - mation and policy analysis . PUBLICATIONS R . Holzmann et al . (eds), Output Decline in Eastern Europe . Unavoidable,

External Influence or Homemade? (1995) C . Prinz, Cohabiting, Married, or Single: Portraying, Analyzing and Modeling

New Living Arrangements in the Changing Societies of Europe (1995 ) X62 G . Klaassen, Options and Costs of Controlling Ammonia Emissions in Europe (Report u, 1994) C . Marchetti, Anthropological Invariants in Travel Behavior (Report 47, 1994 )

O E C D INT ERNATI O N AL FUTU R ES PROG RAMM E FUTURES PROJECT S

ADDRESS 2 Rue Andre Pascal, F - 75775 Paris CEDEX 16 Phone : 3314524820 0 URL : http ://www.oecd .org/ YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 199 0 CHARACTERISATION the Programme consists of four elements : the OECD forum on the future , the OECD Futures Project which conducts interdisciplinary futures researc h and analysis, the OECD Futures studies information base, and the Inter - national Futures Network . The International Futures Network includes government agencies, corpo - rate planning departments, research institutes and individuals who share a common interest in long term economic and social developments an d related policy issues . PUBLICATIONS China in the 21st century: Long-term Global Implications (1996 ) Future Global Capital Shortages : Real Threat or Pure Fiction? (1995) OECD Societies in Transition : The Future ofl-Vork and Leisure (1994 ) International Air Transport: The Challenges Ahead (1993 ) Infrastructure Policies fog the (199o)s (1993 ) Long Term Prospects for the WorldEconomy (1992 ) Strategic Industries in a Global Economy : Policy Issuesfor the 199os (i99i) B SURVEYS

WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY (WFS )

ADDRESS ¢916 Saint Elmo Avenue, Bethesda, Maryland 20814, USA Phone : i3oi656 8274 UR L: http ://www .wfs .org/wfs E-mail: [email protected]

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 196 6 STATUS association with t25,000 members, mostly from the USA and Canada CHARACTERISATION strives to serve as a neutral clearinghouse for ideas about the future, including forecasts, recommendations, scenarios, alternatives, and more . PUBLICATIONS The Futuris t Futures Researc h Qua rterly Future Survey Newslin e

WORLD FU T U RES STUDI ES FEDERATION (WFSF) i6 3 ADDRESS QUT/WFSF Sec re ta ria t, G a rd e n s Po int C ampus, GP O B ox 2434 Brisb ane Q. 40 oi Aus tr alia Phone : 6 1 7 3864 21 9 2 ux L: http ://www.fbs.qut.edu.au/wfsf/win tro.htm E-mail : wfsf@qut .edu.au

YEAR OF ESTABLISHMENT 1973

STAFF I BUDGET (membership fees, foundations) STATUS non-governmental organisatio n CHARACTERISATION comprises institutional and individual members from about 8o countries from all regions, sectors and ideological perspectives of the world . The Federation strives to be a forum where the stimulation, exchange, and examination of ideas, visions and plans for alternative, long-term futures can take place . Works closely together with UNESCO and other UN agencies. B S URVEY S

PROBLEM - ORIENTED AND CONTEXTUAL - LIT E RATURE ON THINK -T HANK S

INTR O DU C TIO N

The term `think-tank' first emerge s after the Second World War. The mili - tary metaphor relat es not to vehi cles on caterpillar tracks but to s ealed-off rooms where plans and strategies are d iscussed, as happened dur ing the war (Smith , i99i); implicitly it also refers to the experience gained during the war with the rapid mobilisation of expertise from every corner and layer in an organi sation, i .e. by-passing and supplementing the hierarchy, which occupies such an important pla ce in the army. Finding a suitable name for such institutions has alway s been problematical and still today there are tho se who prefer a different description, such as `policy research institute'.

t65 Before 1940 various de sign ation s for such activities were already doing the rounds. In i9z6, for example , Huizinga, after a visit to the Brookings Institute, referred to an `intellectual organisation' contributing towards an intelligent direction of change' (Huizinga 's empha sis) and whi ch `wishes to be vision-giving'. Others referred to `brain s trusts' or `think factories' . At the time the WRR was established reference was also made t o a brain s trust ; the term think-tank did not penetrate into popular parlance in the Neth erland s until the 1970s .

As evident from th e e arli er surve y of think-tank s (see: In Search of the Impo ssible - Think-Tank s around the World) , the number of such bodie s ha s grown sharply since the 1 97o s. The same applie s to the literature about think- tanks; here too a marked in crease may be discerned since th at time, with the p eriod 1989-1995 a s the provision al peak . Simil arly the books on think- tanks no longer concentrate wholly or primarily on the political system of the us or - marginally - the United Kingdom but al so for example on that in German y and Japan . Finally, the attention appears al so to be extending to think-tank s at the level of states and province s and big citie s. A cross-section of the literatur e produ ces the following overall pi cture ..

The first large monograph on think-tanks, by Dickson in 1971, still regard s them primarily a s institutions providing strategic and technical know- how; they may best be compared with a laboratory (similar to the Tyro in the Netherlands) for organisational research and strategy development . They are bodies to which large organi sations turn in order to solve complex decision -making problems, such as the best means of tackling a WI SE B EFO R E TH E E V E N T

20 /25 y ears wau

large logistics project, the management of a big city, the construction of a new defence strategy or the design of a new administrative organis ation . The bodies enli sting such help are largely big organisations such as governments, municipal executives, the armed force s and multinationals. Dickson juxtapose s think-tank s against ad ho c study group s, which are dependent on voluntary participation . Compared with such research bodies Dickson considers that think-tanks have the advantage that they do not have to be set up and staffed each time afre sh, that they consist of profe ssional experts and th at they are able to build up a pool of knowledge from which they can draw for each new topic .

For Dickson think-tanks can also be strategy dep artments of large orga- sa i66 ni tions, such as the army or multinationals. Dror (e.g. i9 8o), however, excludes those categories . His concern is with independent institutions acting at the level of global systems, such as the welfare state. He regards them as `centres of excellence', set apart from the hectic practice of day -today politics . They are not a s independent as universities and are le ss subject to lobbying and public opinion than governments . They represen t a working environment that ha s been deliberately separated from the daily political power struggle and bureaucracy and which is al so not dep endent on a particular clientele. Their added value in political and administrative terms depend s critically on their behaviour as independent in stitutes. In order to stand on their own feet think-tanks must, moreover, have a certain critical mass and so not be too small. On the other h and, nor must they be too large or, according to Dror, bureaucracy will displace the project-based and interdisciplinary method of working. They are aim ed at promoting public affairs by i ssuing reports on all sorts of planning topic s.

Weiss (e .g. 1992) approaches matters from the same angle . He too emphasises the contribution made by think-tanks to government planning . In particular the institutes in question must contribute towards purposeful governance . The government requires goals ; modern governments can no longer permit themselves to react purely on an ad hoc basis but must also learn to look ahead . By setting goals the government furthermore directs its own activities, enhances the recognisability of those goals and promotes thescope for external control by Parliament and the Audit Office . Weiss therefore places think-tanks primarily in the context of policy analysis .

This is also done by S chon and Rein ( 1994), who examined the stalemate that can arise within the political system when individuals and groups B S URVEY S

observe and assess reality solely in terms of their own frame of reference (or paradigm) . Consequen tly - on the basis of ignoran ce - they do not get much beyond the confirmation o f existing positions. According to these authors the function of policy analysis is to make participants in policy proces ses aware of the role that frames of reference play in the ob servation and assessment of facts and to teach them to think in terms of fr ames of reference. In this way policy can be helped to take a step forward and new policy can emerge . This empha sis on policy innovation is even more marked in the writings of Polsby (e.g. 1984), who regard s the function of such institutions as that of changing customary policy p aradigm s and al so what he terms their `concern with systems'.

te the poli cal and Later authors, such as Gellner (1995), also accentu a ti 1i67 cultur al functions of think-tanks . Think-tanks for ex ample play a role i n politic al and social tran sformation processes, the initiation of poli tical debates on topics that had previou sly been taken for granted , in bringing together various groups of participants in the poli tical debate , in defending the basic principle s of the politic al system and in updating politi cal values. The latter contribution s are sometimes also designated as the `advocacy' function s of science and policy, where science and policy are regarded as representatives of the democratic s ociety. They need therefore to be assessed in terms of the extent to which they contribute towards the further development of the open society , the liberal/democratic system, of the civil society or however one wish es to characterise society.

This again indicate s that the development in thinking about think-tanks is consistent with change s in the political system. In the heyday of the welfare state and what the Germans term th e `Konzertierte Akrion' of governm ent and social par tners, think-tanks could only be regard ed as an `outboard mo tor'. With the in crease in opennes s and the criticism of the social shaping notion, the found ations for think-tanks were broadened into independent public institutions that contribute towards the public debate about policy.

McGann (1995) even goes so far as to consider it dangerous for think-tanks to remove themselves too far from their political environment, a s they then become technocratic. In his view the new political think-tank s ofthe 1970s in the us demonstrated that they have an indi spensable value for democracy. Activist think-tanks such as ` Heritage ' exposed the tension at that time between a poli tical system that con tinued to strive for the expan- W ISE B EFO R E THE E V E N T

202$ years WAR

Sion of social facilities and the trends in society, which pointed in the opposite d irection. McGann does not, accordingly, regard the preparation by Heritage for the conservative Reaganite revolution as objectionable but as a self-evident part ofa development that had got under way in the ig6os with the critical and democratic role of think-tanks . The advent of the current think-tanks i s in his view nothing other than an element of the Western - especially American - model of political pluralism, where the important thing is not so much the official status of tho se purveying an opinion but the content of the opinion itself. He also regards the higher political profile of think-tanks a s a normal re sponse in the market of expertise that has since arisen ; otherwi se those wanting advice do not know whom they should choo se for what kind of st andpoint : the `liberalism' of X68 the Brookings Institute is as much an identity in that market as the conser - vative politicisation by Heritage . In doing so McGann qu alifies the standpoint taken by Smith (1991), who also noted the advent of a 'market of ideas', but who rejects the emergence of conservative think-tanks in the i98os as a departure from the Brookings and Rand model .

Finally, Ricci (1993) rejects the image of a think-tank as a 'house of wise men' ; this leads to technocracy. He also take s leave of the notion of think- tanks a s political `entrepreneur s' in the market of idea s; this leads to politicisation . He therefore arrive s at a position s omewhere in between distan ce and involvement , as already evident in the c ase of such authors as Dror, Schon and Rein, and Pol sby. According to these authors think-tanks contribute particularly to what Ri cci refers to as `the great conver sation'. In particulartheir function is to promote the quality of public opinion -making. The literature survey below does not set out to offer more th an a starting point for an orientation towards the numerou s publications on think- tanks and the context in whi ch they op erate; it certainly lays no claim s to comprehen sivenes s . The liter ature has been classified into three categories. First of all the literature about think-tanks is examined, broken down into that about think-tanks in general and the WRR in particular. A brief survey is then provided of book s and arti cles on the relationship between science and poli cy. Whole bookca ses have been filled on thi s subject. With the exception of the odd basi c work of reference , the con - centration is therefore on the more recent literature. The survey conclud es with literature on the provi sion of advice to government - the WRR being an advisory body, in the sense that it was established under Article 87 Of the Constitution, which lay s down that advi sory bodie s must be established under law. B S URVEYS

LI TE RAT U R E ON T H I NK TANK S I N G ENERA L

Abelson, Donald E . (1992),'A New Channel of Influence : American Think Tanks and the News Media' ; Queen's Quarterly no. 4. P. 849-872• On the transformation ofthinktanks in the usfrom institutes aimed atsupport- ingpolicy-makers with expertise into organisations participating actively i n the process ofpolicy-malting .

Andrews, Jr . John K . (1989), 'So You Want to Start a Think Tank ; A Battle- field Report from the States' ; Policy Review no. 49, Summer, p. 62 -65 . A `sleeper trend' in Americanpolitics in the nineteen eighties is the proliferatio n ofconservative and libe rt arian policy groups atstate and lo cal level , facilitated by the in crease in intellectual resources among right wing politic al parties and 1i6g the revolution in information technology . Characteristics oflocal think tanks are the small scale, low costs and c oncentration on a limited number of issues . Other precondirionsfog success are keeping a measured distan c efrom imple- mentarion, high res e arch quality, the effective marketing ofideas and taking ac count of crises.

Baehr, P.R. (1986), `Think Tanks - Who Needs Them? Advising a Government in a Democratic Society' ; Futures vol .i8 no . 3, P. 389-4 00 . On the contribution that think tanks can make towards the funcrioning ofa democratic society, with the wart as a case-study .

Blackstone, Tessa, and William Plowden ( 19 88), Inside the Think Tank; Advising the Cabinet 1971-1983 ; London, William Hein emann. History of the Central Policy Review Staff. Disc ussion ofthe successes ofand crises su rrounding the CPRS, the contribution made by the CPRS to gove rn ment policy , reasons for its abolition and arguments for establishing a comparable institute .

Bulmer, Martin (ed .) (1987), Social Science Research and Government ; Comparative Essays on Britain and the United States ; Cambridge etc ., Cambridge University Press . Collection of essays on the relationship between socio-scientific research and government in the last3o years in the United Kingdom and the us . Increasing use is made ofsocio-scienrific research in theformulation ofeconomic and social policies. The question concerns the kind of research that is available and how it is used. Chapter 6 discusses the history of the Central Policy Review Staff WI SE BEFORE T H E E V E N T

2o/25 1ftalS WRR

and the Kommission fiirWiruchaftlichen undSozialen Wandel, both of which have been abolished.

Critchlow, Donald T. (1985), The Brookings Institution, igi6-i952; Expertise and the Public Interest in a Democratic Society ; DeKalb Illinois, Northern Illinois University Press . On the basis ofthe history of the Brookings Institution the relationship between professional expertise and government policy and that between industry an d government is outlined.

Day, Alan J. (ed.) (1993), Think Tanks: an International Directory; Essex, Longman Group . Survey of 783 think tanks in 78 countries . X 70

Dickson, P . (1971), Think Tanks ; New York, Atheneum . First standard publication on think tanks. Deals with policy research institutes and technological x& D ins titutes (clean factories) as a typically American phenomenon . This phenomenon is a part of the `research empire ', a power discussed in this book.

Dror, Y. (i98o), `Think Tanks : A New Invention in Government' ; in: Carol H. Weiss, Allen H . Barton, Making Bureaucracies Work ; Beverly Hills, Sage Publications. Modern governments do not differfundamentally from classical governments in their dependence on a handful ofrulers and their advisors in interaction with quasi-professional bureaucracies. New inventions in governance are required and the us invention ofthink tanks is a good example. Dror characterises think tanks and discusses a number ofreasons as to why their contribution towards policy-making has remained limited.

Dror, Y. (1984), `Required Breakthroughs in Think Tanks' ; Policy Sciences no. i6, p .199-225 • Characteristics ofthink tanks, position in the policy- making process, recom- mendarionsfor the use ofthink tanks aspolicy -malting instruments .

Fischer, F. (i99i), American Think Tanks: Policy Elite's and the Politi cisation ofExperrise; Working Paper 31, Onderzoek scentrum Sturing en Samen - leving, Leiden Institute for Law and Public Pol icy. On the changing role ofexperu in the us system ; from technocracy to conser- B SURVEY S

vative agenda-setting. The author distances himselffrom technocratic and pluralist theories on advice and policy.

Gellner , Winand (1995), Ideenagenturen fur Politik and O}fentli chkeit; Think Tanks in den USA and in Deutschland; Opladen , Westdeut scher Verlag. Thefunction of think tanks, known in German as Ideeenagenturen , in the political process in Germany and the US is compared. The think tanks in Ideeenagenturen differ in institutional terms but arefuncrionally equivalent .

James, Simon (1993), `The Idea Brokers : the Impact of Think Tanks on British Government' ; Public Administration vol. 71 no. 4, P. 491-506. Characterisation of think tanks. A think tank is defined as an independent organisation in multi-disciplinary research with a view to influencing government policy . Various characteristics of think tanks are discussed : think tanks are intellectually independentfrom the government but do concern themselves with government needs; think tanks undertake strategic research relating to general interests, thereby acting as an intermediary between the academic world and decision-makers; most think tanks are party -political.

Kneschaur ek, F., Wirtschaftliche Perspektiustudien; Unterlassliche Ori en- tierungs- and Entscheidungshilfen fiir Staatand Wirtschaft . Erfahrungen and Erkenntnisse aus zwanzigjahriger Forschungs- and Beratungstatigkeit.

McGann, James G . (1995), The Competition for Dollars, Scholars and Influence in the Public Policy Research Industry ; Lanham, University Press of America . Research into institutesfoipolicy research on the basis ofa survey conducted among 34 think tanks in the United States . Discussion of literature concerning think tanks; definition ofthink tanks as compared with academic, commercial and government research institutes ; description of the sector and research into the relationship between strategies, technologies and organisational form of think tanks.

National Institute for Research Advancement (1996), NIxA's World Directory of Think Tanks; Tokyo, NIRA . Survey of268 think tanks in 68 countries, selected on the basis of thefollowing criteria: the organisation must conduct research on behalfofgovernment policy, it must notform an integral part ofthegouernmentand a substantial proportion of the research results must 6e publicly available . WI SE HEPO R E T H E EVE N T

20/2 5 years wax

Polsby, Nelson W. (1983),'Tanks but No Tanks' ; Public Opinion April/ May, pp . 14-16, 58-59 . Polsby draws a distinction between genuine think tanks (eg. The Centre for Advanced Study in the Behavioural Sciences) and `public policy research insri- tutes' (e,g.Brookings) . Peopleform part ofa genuine think tank only temporarily and the think tank provides a sheltered bureaucratic environment . Public policy research institutes have organisational agendas ; the scientists are on long-term contracts and comefrom orgo to the government service . The executive relies unduly on these advisors and too little on the expertise ofciuil servants .

Ricci, David M. (1993)> The Transformation ofAmerican Politics ; The New Washington and the Rise ofThinkTanks ; New Haven/London, Yale Uni - versity Press . The advent of think tanks in Washington is an expression ofchange in the us: professionalisation, anti-politics, commercialisation . People are no longer cid- zensbut consumers: ideas are products . Think tanks may be placed in three perspectives: Solomon's House, the marketplace of ideas and the Great Conver - sation .

Smith, James A. (1 991), The Idea Brokers; Think Tanks and th e Rise of the New Policy Elite; New York , The Free Pre ss. Various stages in the development ofthink tanks from i 9 oo to iggo are discussed in historical perspective . A critical discussion of the ideological think tanks of the ig8os .

Smith, Paul I . Slee (1971), Think Tanks and Problem Solving; London, Business Books . Descrip tion and history of think tanks in the US from the perspe ctive ofpolicy problems.

Steinmuller, Karlheinz (1996), Zukunftforschung in Europa; Geschichte, Institutionen i; Gelsenkirchen , Sekretariat fiir Zukunftfor schung. Survey of developments in thefield offutures research in Europe, descrip tion of various existing institutes including the WRR, listofjournals in thefield of future studies . B SURVEY S

`Think Tanks ; the Carousels of Power'; The Economist, May 25th, i99i, p. 27-30 . The role ofthink tanks and ofpolicy intellectuals changes in line with the degree of consensus in a society . When consensus declines, think tanks become clearly more ideological and their role changes from thatofaduancingfacts to challenging conventional wisdoms .

Weaver, R. Kent (19 89), `Changing World of Think Tanks' ; Ps : Political Science and Politics, September, p . 563-578• The environment of think tanks has changed and there arefar more of them . There are three think tank models : a university without students (eg. B rookings); a con tract research organisation (RAND) ; and an advocacy tank (Heritage) . The changes provide opportunities for think tank manag e rs . The '73 changing roles that think tanks can fu ~fll are those ofa source ofpolicy ideas; a source of and evaluator of policy proposals ; an evaluator ofgovernment programmes; a source ofpersonnel; and expertise.

Weiss Carol H . (ed.) (i99z), Organ isationsfor Policy Analysis : Helping Government Think; Newbury Park/London/New Delhi, Sage Publications. Des cription ofa number of organ isa tionsfor policy analysis in the us in the context ofthe American poli tical culture. Th ey are distinguished by their use of empirical resear ch and systematic analysis. Descriptions are provided of various organisations including Brookings, ,a E i and RAND and a number of organisations fulling the same advisory fun c tion within the government sector.

TH E WR R

Baehr, P.R. (i98i), `Futures Studies and Policy Analysis in the Political Process: The Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy' ; in: Peter R. Baehr and B . Wittrock (eds .), Policy Analysis and Policy Innovation Patterns, Problems and Potentials ; London, Sage . Description ofthe WRR in thenineteen seventies.

Baehr, P.R. (1986), "`Think-Tank" in den Niederlanden' ; Zukunft, June . On the working methods and influence ofthe WRR . W ISE BEFORE TH E E V E N T

20/25 yrnrs w7t7t

Gendt, M.C .E. van (1976),'The Scientific Council for Government Policy : Indirect Advising on the Central Level'; Planning and Development in Th e Netherlands vol. viii no. i, Assen, van Gor cum. Description ofthe Dutch planning system and the place of the wrtx .

Hirsch Ballin, E .M .H . (1979), Publiekrecht en Beleid; Fundamentele Kwesties Rondom het Functioneren van de Wetenschappelijke Road voor het Regeringsbeleid; Thesis, Alphen aan den Rijn, Samsom Uitgeverij . Focuses on the (legal) question as to the role the WRR can play in theformulation of long-term policy. The relationship between science and policy may be described in terms of a decisionist model in which rational science and ir- rational politics are clearly separated or in terms of a pragmatic model in which social shaping is not viewed as a possibility . X74

Prakke, L. (1973), `Een Wetenschappelijke Raad voor het Regeringsbeleid' ; Tijdschrift voor Bestuurswetenschappen vol.z8 no.2, p.100-104. Description of the coming into being of the WRR .

Quene, Theo, `The Netherlands' Scientific Council for Government Policy'; in: Harvey Brooks, Chester L. Cooper (eds.), Science for Public Policy; Oxford etc., Pergamom Press, 1987, P . 37-50. Description of the legal position of the WRR, composition of the Council, size, working methods, and discussion of various reports .

Staal, P.M . van der and F .A. van Vught, `Vijftien jaar toekomstonderzoek door de WRR : de uitgestelde methodologische reflectie' ; Part i in Beleids- analyse 87-4, p.i6-z5 and part 2 in Beleidsanalyse 88- 1, P.5-17. Following an introduction on the origins of the WRR a number of wrzxfuture- research projects are discussed. Within the WRR there has been a clearly discernible evolution of thought on futures research, which is brought to light in these articles .

S C I E N C E AND POLI C Y

Aaron, Henry J . (1978), Politics and the Professors: the Great Society in Perspective ; Studies in Social Economics i6, Washington DC, Brookings Institution . Analysis of the developments concerning the idea of the Great Society . Originally the role of the federalgouernment was the subject ofconsensus . That consensus did not decline primarily because of thefailure of the Great Society B S URVEY S

but more particularly due to external events such as Watergate and the Vietnam War. It is concluded that both the original idea to use national policy in the solution of social and economic problems and the subsequent disillusion- ment derivedfrom assumptions that are not based on research or on the results ofthe programs themselves .

Baehr, P.R., B . Wittrock (eds .) (ig8i), Policy Analysis and Policy Innovation Patterns, Problems and Potentials ; London, Sage Publications . On science for policy in various countries .

Ball, Terence , James Farr, Russell L. Hanson (ed s.) (1989), Political Innovat- ion and Con ceptual Change; Cambridge etc ., Cambridge University Press . Politics are based on language, and the concepts on which political behaviour is X75 based change in response to real political events. This book analyses the development of thirteen central concepts: revolution, rights, democracy, property , corrup tion, citizenship , constitution, state, representation , party, patriotism, general interest, public opinion and ideology .

Beam, David R . (1996), `If Public Ideas Are so Important Now, Why Are Policy Analysts so Depressed?' ; Journal of Policy Analysis and Management vol. 1 5 no. 3 . P. 430-437• Together with organised interestgroups, public ideas have a decisive influence on policy-making . Bad ideas have just as much or more influence as good ideas .

Beck, Ulrich (1992), Risk Society; towards a New Modernity (Risikogesell- schaft; Auf dem Weg in eine andere Moderne ; 1986, transl. Mark Ritter) ; London etc ., Sage Publications. The industrial society is changing into a risk-society, in which conflicts no longer arise from the distribution ofscarcegoods but from the distribution of risks . The authority of science is declining ; scientific rationality is no longer the sole rationality. What is required is `reflective modernity', modernity with consciousness of the consequences of action .

Blumenthal, Sydney (1986), The Rise of the Counter-Establishment; From Conservative Ideology to Political Power ; New York, New York Times Books. Description of the changing political environment in the us since the 1984 elections . WI SE BEPORE T H E EVE N T

102$ years WR R

Bromley, D . Allan (1994), The President's Scientists ; Reminiscences of a White House Science Advisor, New Haven/London, Yale University Press . Memoires of the Assistant to the President ofthe us fog Science and Technology under George Bush .

Brooks, Harvey (1971), Science, Growth and Society - A New Perspective ; OECD . Celebrated report at the time, drawn up in response to the notion that there is a link between scientific development (R&D) and econormcgrowth . Recommendation : development ofpolicy forscience and of science for policy .

Brooks, Harvey, and Chester L . Cooper (eds.) (1987), Science for Public Policy; Oxford, Pergamom Press . Policy-makers are confronted by a growing number of problems the solution of which depends on scientific and technical insights . This book indicates how the quality and timeliness ofscientific adviceforpolicy can be improved, aimed especially at environmental problems .

Burns, Tom R., and Reinhard Ueberhorst (1988), Creative Democracy; Systematic Conflict Resolution and Policy-making in a World of High Science and High Technology; New York, Praeger. Democratic structures are required in order to direct technological developments. Technological development is not value free and cannot be left to exports .

Caplan, Nathan (ig8o), `What Do We Know About Knowledge Utilisation?' ; New Directions for Program Evaluation no. 5, p . i-io . Effective use of evaluarion-research is hard to achieve and depends on a certain combination of individual and institutional characteristics: originality, re- sourcefulness and commitment.

Caplan , N athan (ig8i) , ` So cial R esear ch and Public Pol icy at the Nation al Level'; invited paper for the svo Workshop on Education al Research and Public Policy, Foundation on Educational Research in the Netherl ands , The Hagu e, May 20 -22, i98i. The paper examines the relationships between researchers and users ofscien - tific information and the way in which those relationships could be improved so that better use was made of research results in theformulation ofpolicy . B SURVEYS

DeLeon, Peter (1988), Advice and Consent; the Development of the Policy Sciences; New York, Russell Sage Foundation . Description of the development of the intellectual and analytical approach towards problems ofpublic policy; the emergence ofpolicy science from the i96os onwards.

Douglas, M., and A. Wildavsky (1983), Risk and Culture; an Essay on the Selection of Technical and Environmental Dangers ; Berkeley etc ., University of California Press . Risk is a social construct and cannot be pinned down in scientific terms . A typol- ogy of problems is developed with along one axis `knowledge: certain or uncertain'and along the other `consensus : full or non-existent'.

Feldman, M. (1989), Order Without Design : Information Production and Policy Making; Stanford, Stanford University Press . Think tanks chiefly affect the understanding and problem-definition ofpolicy- makers .

Fischer, F. (i99o), Technocracy and the Politics of Expertise ; Newbury Park etc., Sage Publications. Fischer examines the influence of changes in the structures, institutions and behaviour ofcorporate capitalism at state and organisational level. Post- industrial politics may be regarded as an attempt to apply technocrati c management practices at the level of the state .

Fischer, F., and J . Forester (eds .) (1993) , The Argumentative 7i4rn in Policy Analysis and Planning; Durham, Duke University Press . Policy-malting is a process ofargumentation, aLanguage . This new vision on policy also changes the role ofpolicy analysis: attention needs to be devoted to images, rhetoric and symbols.

Gaffney, John (i99i), `The Political Think Tanks in the UK and the Ministerial Cabinets in France' ; West-European Politics no . 1 4, p . 1-17. Compa rison of the relationship between a rightwing (UK) and leftwing (France) gove rn ment with policy formulation to illustrate the ways in which political ideas gain currency in a representa tive democracy . WI SE B [.PORB TH E EVE N T

20/25YM/T WRR

Gandy, Jr., and Oscar H . (1982), Beyond Agenda Setting: Information Subsidies and Public Policy; Norwood New Jersey, Ablex. Research into the methods used to influence decision-making, such as manipu- lation of the mass media by subsidising certain information .

Gilpin, Robert, and Christopher Wright (eds .) (1964), Scientists and National Policy-making ; New York/London, Columbia University Press . On the relationship between science and policy in the us. The 1945-1964 period is coming to an end; new problems and challenges are arising.

Gunsteren, Herman R . van (1976), The questfor control; a critique of the rational - central-rule approa ch in public affairs; London etc ., John Wiley & Sons . Criticism of the rational/synoptic model ofpolicy-making and planning .

Gunsteren, Herman van, and Edith van Ruyven (ed .) (1995)> Bestuur in de ongekende samenleving ; Leiden, Sdu. Adminis trators are required to direct society while it is becoming increasingly difficult to understand that complex and changing society .

Hajer, Maarten A. (1995), Thepolitics ofenuironmental discourse, ecological modernisation and th epolicy process; Oxford, Clarendon Press. Thesis: analysis of the debate in response to the ecological crisis.

Hoed , Paul den (1995), Bestuur en beleid van binnenuit; Een analyse van instituties; Thesis , Amsterdam , Boom . Processes ofadministration and policy are given shape by the behaviour of policy-actors.

Hoed, P. den, W.G.M. Salet, and H . van der Sluijs (1983), Planning als on- derneming ; WRR, Preliminary and Background studies no . 34, The Hague, Staatsuitgeverij . Criticism ofpolicy centrism and ofa concept ofgovernment in an Archimedian position . Criticism also of the De Wo ~ff Commission's conception ofscience .

Hutjes, J .M. and M .C.J. Cuisinier (1983), Sociaal-wetenschappelijk onderzoek in het ouerheidsbeleid ; The Hague, Sdu . Analysis of the literature in response to a question in the Lower House concerning the causes of `the inadequate interaction between socio-scienrific research and govern government policy' . Discusses the knowledge-specific theories according to B SU RV EY S

which non-use is related to the nature of scientific information; two - commu - nity theories concerning the relationship between the research world and the policy world,' and policy-maker-constraint theories referring to characteristics of the policy process .

Jasanoff, Sheila (i99o), The Fifth Branch : Science Advisers as Policy makers ; Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press. Criticism of the technocratic approach and the participation approach ofscien- rificpolicy advice. More and mope negotiations are conducted concerning scientific disputes with political implications during the advisory process . Jasano}f proposes as an alternative to the two familiar approaches a negotiating model, in which she takes leave of the idea that science generates absolute values .

Kingdon, J.W. (1984/1985), Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies; X 79 Boston, Little , Brown, (2nd ed.). Ideas aye placed on the political agenda, policy alternatives are discussed . Various actors play a role in the processes in which this happens : politicians, interestgroups, academics and civil servants . Agenda-setting is discussed as a part of the policy process .

Lagemann, Ellen Condliffe (1989), The Politics of Knowledge . The Carnegie Corporation, Philantropy, and Public Policy ; Middletown, Wesleyan University Press . The history ofthe Carnegie Foundation is used to illustrate the role offounda- tions in US soc ie ty.

Lindblom, Charles E . (i99o), Inquiry and Change; the Troubled Attempt to Understand andShape Society ; New Haven etc., Yale University Press/Russell Sage Foundation. On the basis of political and social theories and empirical social sciences, Lindblom analyses the methods used by scientists, citizens, policy-makers and opinion leaders in order to investigate, explain and change society . He identifies certain causes of inadequate information and analysis, including the tendency towards consensus-building.

Lucassen, Leo and Andre J .F. Kobben (i99z), Hetpartielegelijk; contro- verses over het onderwijs in de eigen taal en cultuur en de rol daarbij van beleid en wetenschap (r95i - 1991) ; Amsterdam/Lisse, Swets & Zeitlinge. The aim is to demonstrate how scientificfindings are used and interpreted selec- tively in order to confirm the desired policies . WI SE BEFORE TH E EVE N T

20/25 y ea rs wrt R

Lynd, Robert S . (1986, orig. 1939) , Knowledgefor What? The Place of Social Science in American Culture ; Middletown Conn ., Wesleyan University Press . Social sciences are designed to raise awareness and must contribute towards improving human conditions . The mission is hindered by specialisation,fiag- menta tion and bureaucratisation .

Lynn, Lawrence E . jr. (1978), Knowledge and Policy : the Uncertain Connec- tion; Study Project on Social Research and Development vol . 5, Washington DC, The National Research Council . Part of a six-part study into the organisation ofsocial research within the federal government. Contributions in this part by Lynn ('The Question of i8o Relevance), Weiss (`Improving the Linkage Between Social Research and Public Policy'), Wilson, Davis and Salasin, Sundquist ('Research Brokerage: The Weak Link'), Collins .

Majone G . (1989), Evidence, Argument and Persuasion in the Policy Process ; New Haven/London, Yale University Press . The policy process is not to be understood as one in which only technological, economic or political processes play a role ; ideas, theories and arguments are equally important. Policy analysis is rhetorical art. A policy analysis cannot come up with technical solutions to policy problems; and a policy analyst seeks his or her own way to persuade the p u blic, of which policy-makers form part. That separate way stems from the professional knowledge and professionalism of the policy analyst. The most important skill ofa policy analyst is to indicate the obstacles and parameters and which obstacles aye fictitious .

Molenaar , Leo (1994), Wij kunn en het niet longer aan depolitici ouerlaten; De geschi edenis van h et Uerbond van Wet enschappelijke Onderzo ekers 1946-ig8o ; Rij swijk, Elmar . Reference work discussing all the activities of the Association ofScientific Researchers (vwo), especially the conferences on all sorts ofaspecu ofscience and society and biographical portraits the people who have carried the vwo .

Nathan, Richard P. (1988), Social Science in Government; Uses and Misuses; New York, Basic Books. Description ofapplied socio-scienrific research in processes within the government in the us on the basis of participatory observation . B SU R VEYS

National Academy of Sciences (1968), Government's Need for Knowledge and Information ; Washington Dc, Government Printing Office .

OECD (1966), The Social Sciences and the Policies of Governments ; Advisory Group on the Social Sciences, Paris, OECD . Report on the policy implications ofsocial sciences . Members of the advisory group, established in response to a memorandum by the Dutch delegation : Massart, Aron, Briggs, Dahrendorf, Ferrarotti, Glass, Gruson, Hofstee, Lazarsfeld, Oppenheimer, Segerstedt. Science policy must be equally concerned with the social as with the natural sciences, as it is the social sciences that can contribute towards the better orga- n isatio n ofsoci ety .

Polsby, Nelson W. (1984), Political Innovation in America; the Politics of Policy Initiation ; New Haven/London, Yale University Press . Analysis ofagenda -setting on the basis ofthe history ofeight cases . In the American system there are at least two kinds ofinnouation : policy initiatives that arise suddenly in response to an acute problem, and initiatives with a lengthy incubation period. In the la tter case the two func tions are distinguished ofexperts who think up alternatives and politicians who apply the alternatives .

Schon, D .A . and M . Rein (1994), Frame Reflection : Towards the Resolution of Intractable Policy Controversies ; New York, Basic Books . Various actors in government policy use differentfiames (i .e. policy theories), thereby disrupting two-way communication . Frames have a cognitive and normative effect on the perceptions of reality of the parries in a policy-process . Policy controversies threaten the quality ofpolicy-making . As a solution Schon and Rein developed the concept of `design rationality, where the essence of policy-making resides in the interaction between policy-planners and interested parties . This creates a taskforpolicy -analysts, who must help organise processes ofproblem identification and policy design . Policy analysis promotes an open, democratic dialogue (i .e .frame reflection) between groups in society and public bodies, resulting in the mixing of theframes ofuarious parties .

Snel, Erik (1996), De vertaling van wetenschap - Nederlandse sociologie en pralrnjk; Thesis. Snel examines the interrelationship between sociological theory and societal

practice on the basis of a survey of the 1 950s . In succession he discusses the instrumental, conceptual, power and translation model of the relationship between science and policy. The translation model provides the most accurate W ISE B EFO R E T H E EVE N T

20/2S years WRR

reflection of reality. The model can be used to recognise and describe mechanisms in the translation ofscience .

Wagner, Peter, Carol Hirschon Weiss, Bjorn Wittrock, and Hellmut Wollmann (eds.) (i99i), Social Science and Modern States : National Experiences and Theoretical Cross-roads ; Cambridge etc ., Cambridge University Press . Volume in which the relationship between academic social sciences and the implementation ofgouern ment policy is analysed on the basis ofa historica l and comparative approach .

Weiss, Carol H . (1977), `Research for Policy's Sake : the Enlightenment X 82 Function of Social Research' ; Policy Analysis vol . 3 no. 4. P. 531-545 • Research reveals that the utilisation ofsocio-scientific research is not quite th e same thing as the application ofdata in specific decisions . It is more a ma tter of conceptual use.

Weiss, Carol H . (i98o), `Three Terms in Search of Reconceptualization: Knowledge, Utilisation, and Decision-making' ; paper prepared for conference on the Political Realisation of Social Science Knowledge : Toward New Scenarios, Vienna, June i8-2o, 198o. The three terms in the title are much more ambivalent than is recognised. Only once they are redefined can the research into the utilisation ofsocio -scientific knowledge be taken any further.

Weiss, Carol H . (ed .) (1977), Using Social Research in Public Policy Making ; Toronto, Lexington Books . The positive contribution that socio-scientific research could make towards policy-making is qualified. Weiss notes both the limited value ofscience's claim to rationality and characteristicfeatures of the policy-making process that impede thefull utilisation ofscienrific research . Quantitative data on the relationship between research and government aye presented . It is proposed that socio-scientific research be used in problem definition .

Weiss Carol H ., Michael J . Bucuvalas (i98o) , `Truth Tests and Utility Tests : Decision-makers ' Frames of Refer enc e for Social Science Re search'; American So ciological Review vol. 45, April, p. 302-313 . Examines the frames of references' used by policy-makers in order to assess the u tility ofsocial science research for their work . Five are discovered: the rele- B S U RVE Y S

vance of the research design; quality of the research ; conformity of results with expectations; action -orientation ; and challenges to existing policy.

Weiss C .H., M.J . Bucuvalas (ig8o), Social Science Research and Decision Making; New York, Columbia University Press. Analysis of the utility ofsocial science research for policy-maker on the basis of a case study in thefield ofinental health care .

White Jay D. and Guy B . Adams (eds .) ( 1994)> Research in Public Admin- istration; Reflections on Theory and Practice ; American Society for Public Administration, Thousand Oaks etc ., Sage Publications . Currentposition with respect to the use and quality ofscientific research on public administration . i8 3

Wildavsky, A. (1979), Speaking Truth to Power; The Art and Craft of Policy Analysis ; Boston. Policy analysis cannot serve as an alternative to the political trade-offs of inter- estsand values. The political elites, which act as an intermediary between the government and citizens, are polarised into three streams: an egalitarian, a free market and a Chris tianfundamentalist stream . This polarisation complicates policy analysis as the polarised streams operate on the basis ofa6solute values, while policy analysts advise on the basis oftrade-offs and compromises .

Wilensky, Harold L . (1967), Organisational Intelligence; Knowl edge and Policy in Government and Industry; New York/London, Basic Books. Research into the function ofpolicy-relevant information in organisations . Social scientists have traditionally been oriented towards government policy . Nevertheless there is little knowledge about the relationship between science and policy , even though that knowledge has become indispensable with the knowledge explosion and the organisation revolution . Wilensky applies a military analogy in order to illuminate the problems with information i n organisations.

Wittrock, B ., P. Wagner and H . Wollman, Social Science and the Modern State: Knowledge, Institutions, and Societal Transformations ; WZB Paper P 87-3, Berlin, wZB . WI SE B EFO R E TH E E V EN T

20/2 5 yw rs WRR

WRR (1996), `About the quality of the future' ; in: Social Dichotomy in Perspective ; Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy, Reports to the Government no . 50, The Hague, p . 57-87 . Facts and attitudes change and play leapfrog with one another. This makes predicting thefuture particularly difficult.

ADVI S IN G THE G OV E RNM E N T

De Jong Commission (1993), Raad op maat, Report by the Special Commission on Advisory Body Issues, Lower House 1992-1993 , 21427 no . 29 . Argues the casefor limiting the number ofaduisory bodies . There should be one X 84 advisory council for each policy field .

Delden, A . Th . Van and J . Kooiman (ig8i), `Adviesorganen' ; in: R .B . Andeweg, A . Hoogerwerf and J .J.A . Thomassen, Politiek in Neder- land; Alphen aan de Rijn, Samsom, p .144-i66 . Examination of the parliamentary debate concerning advisory bodies and description of the advisory system in its contex t

Delden, A. Th . Van and J . Kooiman (eds.) (1983) , Adviesorganen in depoli- tieke besluitvorming; WRR, Preliminary and Background Studies no . 41, The Hague , Staatsuitgeverij . Advisory bodies as links between government and society .

Montfoort, C. van (1995), Institutionele Hervormingen in Theoretisch Perspectief• Civil Society en de Herstructurering van de beleidssectoren Arbeid. Gezondheidszorg en Onderwijs ; Thesis, Utrecht, ISOR . As a result ofuarious developments the welfare state must be reformed. The normative criteria which that welfare state should satisfy are discussed, giving rise to the concept ofciuil society . This concept is then applied to the polic y sectors ofemployment, healthcare and education .

Plowden, W . (ed.) (1987), Advising the Rulers; Oxford/New York, Basil Blackwell. A comparison ofaduisory bodies in a number of western countries, especially those advising the president or prime minister. B SUR V EYS

Radin, Beryl A. (1997), `Presidential Address : the Evolution of the Policy Analysis Field: from Conversation to Conversations' ; Journal of Policy Analysis and Management vol. i6 no. 2, p. 204-2i8 . Shifts in policy analysis between the ig6os and the iggos. Whereas policy analysis was sometimes seen in the ig6os as an alternative to politics, thegoals ofpolicy analysis have now become much more modest. It would be advisable to examine the development ofpolicy analysis itself.

Rijnen, A.Ch.M . et al. (1977), Adviseren aan de overheid; WRR Preliminary and Background Studies no . 5, The Hague, Staatsuitgeverij . Comparison ofaduisory bodies in the United Kingdom, West Germany, Belgium and France; legal, political-science and administrative aspects of the advisory process . X8 5

Wheare, K.C. (1955)> Government by Committee; An Essay on the British Constitution; Oxford, Clarendon Press . Description ofcommittees in the UK. Functions include advising, researching, negotiating, regulating, administering and controlling . Characteristics are hierarchy,prescribedprocedures and appointed officials . Various forms of commissions are discussed.

WRR (1976), Commentaar op de Discussienota Sectorraden; Reports to the Government no . g, The Hague, Staatsuitgeverij . Advisory report sought by the Ministerfor Science Policy in response to the Sectoral Councils Discussion Paper, which proposed dividing research up into sectors .

W RR (1976), Externe adviesorganen van de centrale overheid ; Reports to the Government no . i2, The Hague, Staatsuitgeverij . Description of the governmental advisory system . Argues for restraint in the setting up ofaduisory bodies and for improvement ofthe information on advisory bodies .

WRR (1977), Interne adviesorganen van de centrale overheid; Reports to the Government no . 14, The Hague , Staatsuitgeverij . Policy support could take place by means of evaluative research and advice. Such research could be placed with an existing independent institution operating in thisfield. The advisoryfunction could 6efu olled by a small, possibly changinggroup of individuals meetingfor this purposefrom time to time. B SU RV E Y S

25 YEARS OF WRR PUBLICATION S

IN T R O DU C TIO N

During the 25 years of its existence, the WRR has issued nearly 30 0 publications: over fifty reports to the government, some one hundred and twenty preliminary studies, a similar number of working documents and various special publications such as this volume. In addition the Council publishes a newsletter, a report/evaluation at the end of each Counci l period and, gener ally at the start of each Council period, a programm e of activity. A survey of the wRR's publications, classified by subject and type, is provided below. The large number of loosely related publications in non- wxR channels associated with the publication of reports , such as inter- views and commentaries in journal s and newspapers by members of the Council and staff member s, have been left out of account. t8 7

The Reports to the Governmen t series forms the core of the Council 's work in so far a s these are aimed directly at the makers of government policy. The reports are collective products, signed by the Council as a whole and to which the Council of Mini sters makes a formal re sponse under the relevant s tatutory procedure. On average each report takes two years and is handled by project groups consisting of Council member s and members of the WRR research staff. The preparatory re search conduct ed both in-house and by external resear chers often leads to preparatory and supporting publications in the Preliminary and Background Studies se ries and the Working Documents series. These series therefore contain the 'building block s' for the reports to the government. The Council' s responsibility is confined to the de cision to publish , which provides an indication that the report is up to the requisite standard of scholarship . The respon - sibility for the contents and the view s expressed are solely tho se of the authors. Occasionally, the preliminary studies issued by the Council attract such attention and have such an impact on policy that they may be equated with the a ctual Coun cil reports them selves.

As a new Council i s appointed every five year s and draws up a new programme of work (which doe s not involve on -going core activities) no recogn isable body of work i s to be expected . Nor doe s the large mea sure of freedom that the Council ha s in tackling topic s point in th at direction. Nevertheless, the Reports to the Gov ernment serie s in fact covers a number of fairly const ant area s of concern which , taken together, cover a wide field . The figure below provide s an indication of this `unconscious body of work'. The following areas are distinguished: futures studies, WI SE B EFORE T H E EVEN T

20125 years WR R

economy and technology, demography, employment, social security and income distribution, education and culture , health and welfare , spatial planning and the environment, international relations, the state and the law, and other .

Reports t o th e G ove rn ment classified by field * 1 2

8 t88

0 fut econ . & de mogr, em pl. & soc. educ . & cu lt . hea lth & spat. plan- I nter n at . re l. s ta te & law o the r techn . sec. wel fare Wi ng & env .

" A number of reports have been classified into more than one category

When in the 196os the first plan s were drawn up for a WRR, it was anticipated that such an institute would be concerned with the operation of the new education legi slation, the structure of g overnment administration, the repercu ssion s of European integration, the implications of population growth and di stribu tion , the problems of disadvantaged group s in society , technological development , industrialisation, urbani sation, the ri se in prosperity and changes in publi c value s and norm s (c£ the su rvey of the reports by the So cial and Economic Coun cil of the KNAW th at preceded the establishment of the WRR, in : P. den Hoed, `Experti se in development' , this volume) . The breakdown of the Council 's areas of attention s hown above has correspond ed closely with tho se expectations over the years. B SURVEYS

There is also another respectin which the original intentions correspond with the ultimate publications of the Council . No preference for any particular method emerged in the plan s of the i96o s. At one point the emphasis is on more in strumental methods, such as the suggestion of alternatives, and at others on more reflective approaches, such as placing developments in context. This freedom of action is also related to the position of the Council's activities somewhere between fundamental scientific research on the one hand and , on the other , research at the level of policy imple - mentation, i.e. the research i s policy-oriented but slanted more towards the more fundament al aspects of policy. The Council's reports are there - fore sometimes concerned with putting forward alternat ives to existing policies, while in other cases they are aimed at changing the conventional wisdom (see for example `Distance and nearness' by H.P.M . Adriaansen s 1i8g and `Exploring unch arted territo ry' by H .C . van Late steijn and I .J . Schoonenboom , in this volume).

One area where the Council 's activities have clearly corre sponded with the original plans has been the wx R's orientation towards processes of institutional change . Its publication s bear witness to an interest in broadly-based processes ofsocietal transformation, involving both the government and the private sector. A constant element h ere is an emphasis on the comple- mentari ty of change on the part of the public and private sectors (i .e . development is couched in terms of and . ... and in stead of either.... or) . This may seem self-evident in the ca se of reports on such areas as international relation s and the state but a similar orientation is evident in the ca se of more substantive topics such as industry policy and education policy.

An important differen ce with the p eriod in which plans for an institute such as the WRR were drawn up is the loss of the traditional socio- economic consen sus at the time the welfare state was at its high-water mark. As noted, this has not prevented the Council from dealing with the areas which those concerned had in mind in the 196os, but the position from which the Council does so has changed. The Economist (i5 May i99i, pp. 27- 3o) ha s noted th at on account of the loss of thi s consensus, think- tanks became forced to adopt a more independent position than originally intended .

Finally an ob servation is in order about the wider impact of the Council's reports . In some cases the impact can be highly immedi ate, as in the case of Ethnic Minorities (1979) or Interest and Policy (1994) . The concepts and WIS P BEFORE TH E EV E N T

z o/zs yea rs wliR

criteria formula ted in the l atter report , for example, played a pivotal role in the agreements re ached in the 1994 coalition acc ord concerning the privatisation of the Sickn ess Benefit s Act and opening up th e implement ation of the employment di sability act (wAo) to m arket force s. In other ca ses the imp act tends to be ind ire ct, in terms of the effe ct on th e publi c debate. Thi s applied for example to such reports as Indu stry in the Neth erlands: its Pla ce and Future (i98o), Immigrant Po licy (198 9) , and Basic Education (1986) . In the case of a few r eports - s uch as S ustained Risks (1994 ) and D ecisio n- Making on Compl ex Projects (1994) it took some time for the full impa ct to be fe lt, p artly on a ccount of the new method of defining problem s that was used in the report s. On the odd occasion - e.g. Groundfo r Ch oices (199 2) and Institutions and Ci ties (i99o) - the success abro ad wa s initially greater th an th at in the Netherland s itself. There have also been instances in which igo what was initially a predominantly negative reaction to a report switched to a positive one , for example in the case of Work in Perspective (1991). More generally it may, finally, be noted th at reports sometimes have an impact in areas other than tho se emphasised in the re commend ations (e.g. Decision -Making on Complex Projects).

Every so often a report resulted in polarisation. This was the fate of the report Safeguarding Social Security of 1985 , which elici ted both exception - ally negative and exceptionally positive reactions . Accordin g to policy- makers, this report - which proposed to the government the introduction in the social security system of a partial basic income - arrived at exactly the wrong moment , just after a major reform of the system had been decided upon wi th great difficulty. Others, however, saw the report as substantiating their vi ews that the unemployment i ssue was not to be resolved . This report - from which the Council was later to distance itself- has been a factor in the debate about social security right up to the present day. The time it can take for the impact of a report to work through also makes it difficult to determine the pre cise effect of such report s.

The survey below summarises the content of each report . Reports relating to a number of topics at once - which, in view of the Council's supersec- toral function, goes without saying - are noted under various headings . For the sake of good order it should be noted that the heading of `futures studies' contains both surveys not addressing any one particular theme, such as the Survey of Future Developments of 1977, and surveys with a specific focus . The latter applied for example in the case of the socio- cultural futures study into social cohesion, which gave rise to the report B S URVEYS

Social Dichotomy in Perspective (1996) . Finally an indication is also provided below a s to whether a reque st for advice was received from the government . Only tho se publications have been included in the survey that are available in English.

FUTURES STUDIE S z5 The Next Twenty-five Years (1977) Extrapolation of existing trends in i6sectors in two variants on the basis ofdiffe ring assumptions concerningeconomicgrowth. Main points: economic development is inc reasingly impinging on nature and the enui - ronment . The shortage ofspace is becoming increa sing ly acute. It is unce rtain whether unemployment can be reduc ed below i5o , oo0 . The consumption of energy will rise. There will6efewer young people and an ageing population . Thefunction of thefamily will change, pa rtly due to thegrowing number of married women entering employment . There will be a growing need for so c ial services and welfare. Gove rn ment involvement will increase in virtually all areas, but will shy in naturefrom regulation to nego- tiation .

1 9 A Policy Survey of the Future - Part z : An A tt empt to Challenge (i98o ) In this study the Coun cil concentrates in particular on the role ofpolitics andadminis - tration in shaping th efuture. The aim is to indicat e the sign ific ance ofthe differences i n political attitudes for thefuture and to secure the co-operation ofsocial groupings in working out alternative scenarios for thefuture. On the basis of the liberal, socialist and confessional political streams and the distinction between technocratic and sociocratic attitudes , s ix visions are defined as a basis for the scenarios of thefuture . z5 A Policy Survey of the Future - Part z : Towards a Broader Perspective (1983) On the basis ofs ix visions drawn from the political debate, developments are outlin ed in a large number ofpolicy fields . Chara cteris tic visions are explored in terms oftheir most extreme consequen ces. This includes issues conce rning distribution, the production of goods and services, socio-economic policy, the environment, cultural policy ,foreign policy and public administration .

29 Scope for Growth (1987) see also `The Economy ' On the basis ofa dynamic multi-sector model and an optimisation technique, the Council reaches the conclusion that it isfeasible in technical and economic terms to eliminate the existing unemployment and to deploy the growing supply of labour over W ISE B EFORE T H E EVE N T

202 5 years WRR

the next ten years . An important precondition, however, is a greater willingness on the pa rt ofthe government and social partners to take risks . The level ofinvestment must be in creased, including investment to protect the environment . Exports mustgrow annually by 5- 6 per c ent. The Council argues in favour ofa retu rn to setting structural budget standards. This would mean that the size, composition and deficit ofthe public se ctor would be assessed in the context ofthe e conomy as a whole. Consideration could be given to drawing the private sector more a ctively into the managem ent andfinancing of infrastructural facilities, but this would need to besubject to preconditions asfar as quality and access- ibility are concerned. In this respect deregulation and privatisa tion are at odds .

34 Government and Future Research (1988 ) A survey ofezpectations ofthefuture as evidenced from futures studies condu cted igz under the auspices of the national government . This reveals a good deal of consensu s concerning the broad outline . Generally speaking the continuation ofexisring trends is assumed. The WRR should conduct supplementary futures research in critical areas. These thematic surveys of the future could be regarded as contemporary replacements for the earlier, all-embracing futuresstudies . In addition the wax could develop its function as a forum . The WRR provides a suitable platform for playing a pivotal role within th e gove rnment, academic community and society .

50 Social Dichotomy in Perspective (1996) see also Ìncome distribution, social inequality ' Socio-cultural surveys ofthefuture in whic h expectations concerning the most important distribution dimensions up to the year 2015 are charted. It is noted that notjust factual circumstances change over time but also norms, values and the perception of circ umstances, so that exploring thefuture becomes a hazardous undertaking. The socio-economic developments provide perspectives for preventing a so cial dichotomy, but this does mean that two preconditions need to befu tfl(led. Firstly the èman c ipation of labour ', in which the sign ifican ce ofwork shiftsfrom a necessary evil to a means of participation , and secondly the èmancipation of talent' in which it is recognised that the possibiliries for training are limited and that talents withoutformal training can also be valued.

Wo rkin g d oc um en ts : H .A . Berends, F .R . Veeneklaas, A formal presentation of the model used in `Scope for growth' TEa-4,Technical-economic bookkeeping version 4 (Wz7, 1988) B S URVEY S

E C ONOMY AND TEC HNOLOG Y

i8 Industry in the Netherlands : its Place and Future (i98o ) The structure of the economy is analysed on the basis of the objectives set by thegouern - ment with respect to employment, balance of payments equilibrium, economicgrowt h and environmental management . On this basis it is concluded that a strong industria l sector in the Netherlands is vital. To this end a large number ofspec ific policy recom - mendations are made, including the appointment ofa Government Commission and th e formation ofa National Development Company.

29 Scope for Growth (1987) see also `Futures studies'

30 Tailoring Policy to the Needs of the Small and Medium -sized Business X93 (1987) Small and medium-sized business can make an important contribution towards th e growth of the economy and employment, but this would mean that government regulations need to be tailored more to small and medium -sized business . To date undue emphasis continues to be placed on large-scale business as the yards rickfor govern government policies concerned with the private sector.

38 Work in Perspective; report in response to a request for advice (i99o) see also `Employment' and `Welfare '

42 Ground for Choices . Four Perspectivces for the Rural Areas in the European Communi ty (1992) see also `Environment and spatial plann ing' and `International relations'

54 State Without a Territory. An Exploration of Administrativ e Consequences of Information and Communication Technology (1998 ) This report surveys the impact of the ongoing and rapid extension of tc T in society o n the national state as an institution . As in the case ofother surveys offuture developments, the repo rt is by nature somewhat speculative. This does not detractfrom th e central finding that changes in the knowability, assignability and enforceability of activities will also result in changes in the capacity ofnarional governments to act effectively . This applies in particular to the core legal function ofthe state, namely th e monopoly over the imposition and enforcement of binding rules, which is heavily based on thefactual notion that the actor, ac tion and consequence are tied to one and the sam e place . It is impo rtantfor this realisa tion to be discounted in future policy and not - as so W ISE BEFORE T H E E V E N T

zo/z s years wwt

often tends to be the case -to meet developments in terms of what is perceived as an unchanging capacity to act .

Pr eliminary studies: F . Bletz, W. D erck sen , K . v an P aridon , S h apin g factors fo r the bu siness e nviro nmen t

in the N etherlands after 1992 (V78,1993)

Working documents : S.S. Gustafso n, M . Bruyn -Hundt , Incentives for w omen to work. A comparis on between the Netherlands, Sweden and West Germany (W59, 1991)

DEMOGRAPHY

X94 17 Ethnic M inorities (1979) see also Welfare ' Policy with respect to ethnic minorities has consistently been based on the temporary nature oftheir residence in the country . In view of the fact that temporary stay is a fiction , polices need to be developed to encourage the participation ofminorities in Dutch society on an equalfooting. In the absen ce ofsuch a policy , existing problems, such as problems ofdepriuation and cultural and iden tity problems, will be accentu - ated. Thepolicy will need to be directed against discrimination and improving the legal position and the position ofethnic minorities in the labour market. In addition th e restrictive immigration policy will need to be tightened .

36 Immigrant Policy (1989) ; report in response to a request for advice see also `Employment' and `Welfare ' Instead ofproviding measures to support unemployed members of the immigrant community and rendering them dependent on the government, unemployment among immigrants should be reduced . There are various possibilities to this end: education and training, work-experience places, introduction ofan Employment Opportunities (Promotion) Act (along the lines of the Canadian Employment Equity Act) and award- inggouernment contracts solely to businesses employing immigrants. B SURVEY S

EMPLOYMENT , SO CI A L SEC URITY , INCOME DI S TR I BUT I O N

EMPLOYMENT

13 Do We Make Work our Business? (1977 ) The number of (involuntarily) non - active persons is growing, meaning among other things that ever higher demands are made on the `suppo rt base '. Various scenarios that could contribute towards solving the issue ofenforced non-activity are elaborated in the repo rt . The repo rt examines the impact on employment of the way in which socialfacil- ities arefunded, the impact ofconditions ofemployment, methods for reducing the supply oflabour and the possibility ofcrearing jobs in the non-profit sector.

21 Prospects for Reforming the Labour System ( 1981) X95 Analysis often scenarios concerning the development afthe labour system that hav e featured in the public debate. A reduction in working hours can have positive effects on employment subject to the condition that the total wage-bill is not increased and that business hours are not affected. The encouragement ofpart-time employment, paid educational leave, greater differentia tion in wage determination and improvements in the quality of labour are also expected to have positive effects . Shifts from unpaid to paid employment are difficult to realise and the in troduction ofa basic income is con - sidered unfeasible in the short term by the Council . Ce rtain fornu of consumer regulation could have major effects on employment .

33 An Active Labour Market Policy (1987) The existing measures to combat unemployment are too limited in scope and arefrag- mented and un-transparent. The core ofla6our market policy in thefuture will need to consist ofa singleframework schemefor training and onefor tyork- experience places . Major weight needs to be assigned to the promotion of labour mobility by means of training, work-experience places and greater labour marketflexibility .

36 Immigrant Policy (1989 ) see also `Economy' and `Welfare '

38 Work in Perspective (i99o ) see also `Economy' and `Welfare ' Analysis of the viscious circle ofmajor dependence on social security, thereby pushin g wage costs up to extreme levels and in turn pushing up productivity, meaning a high drop-out ratefrom the labour system and major dependence on social security . This analysis indicates that an increase in the labourforce participation rate must be a majo r objective. In order to achieve this a large number ofpolicy recommendations are made WI SE BEFORE T H E E V EN T

2025 ff[ p It W R R

such as the individualisa tion of the minimum wage and of PAYE and income tax, an active benefit-abuse penalties policy , the encouragement of recurrent training, greater flexibility ofpension schemes and measures to prevent employment disability .

SOCIAL SECURIT Y

z6 Safeguarding Social Security (1985) The current system is strongly based on the model under which the entire householde r income is ea rned by a single breadwinner with afull-time job . This model is losing relevance, apartfrom which thegovernment is unable to guaranteefull employment . This calls for a system in which the link between benefits and employment are looser than at present. Social security is currently funded chiefly by levies on employment, so that the relative prices oflabour-intensive goods and services have risen - thereby depressing the ig6 demand for these produc ts and encouraging a shiftfrom formal to informal produc tion , with a decline in employment. A system is proposed with a partial basic income, genera l loss of earnings insurancefor all employed persons, national assistance as a residual provision and voluntary loss of earnings insurance.

51 From Sharing to Earning ; Considerations for Social Securi ty in the zest Century (1997) The repo rt examines the innovations needed in order to ensure the tenability of the social security system in thefuture. Three models are developed: the entitlements policy, the active integration policy and the supplementation policy . Advantages and dis- advantages of the models are discussed and the Council expresses a preferencefor a m ix ofan active integration model and a supplementation model .

IN CO M E DIST RIBUTIO N A N D SOCIAL I N EQUALIT Y

16 On Social Inequality (1977) The report provides an indication as to how various aspects ofsocial inequality and the mutual dependence on distribution mechanisms are correlated . In particular a vision is developed concerning the links between training, position in the labour system and level of income and wealth . A policy aimed at the redistribution ofemployment attributes is considered necessary . A system of recurrent education also needs to be introduced .

5o Social Dichotomy in Perspective (1997) see also `Futures studies ' B S URVEYS

Working documents : W RR/ H RW B , Soc i a l pol ic y-iss ues i n ec o no mi c pl a nnin g. Rep ort of a confere n ce

(W4 o .19g9) H . P. M . Adri aan sen s, Qu ali ty a nd quantity of w o rk in the nin eties in th e N ethe rla nd s. Qu ality et quantity du travail dans les ann6es 9o aux Pays-Bas, Symposium 2-7 ju li (V✓41,19g9 ) Ari e Ka ptey n , A sgha r Z aid i a nd Adri aa n Kalwij , Work sh arin g as a po li cy t o inc r e a se employment : an evaluation (W96,1997 )

EDU C ATION AND C U LTUR E

17 Ethnic Minorities (1979) see also `Demography ' X97

27 Basic Education ; report in response to a request for advice (1986 ) The general level of education can be increased by the introduction ofgeneral basi c educa tion in the first three years ofsecondary schooling and by improvement ofuoca - tional education . The core curriculum that all pupils should follow during the first thre e years ofsecondary schooling should be offered at two levels in all schools. The structure of the education can only be determined once the content has been decided upon .

47 Higher Education in Stages (1995) There is a general perception of problems in education . The report establishes tha t higher education is required tofufil too many different tasks and that the emphasis placed on training for the labour market, in combina tion with the decision-malaing structure of the universities, results in far-reachingfragmentarion and the specialisatio n of training courses . At the same time professions are becoming less and less training- specific and there is in fact a requirement in the labour marketforwell-roundedgrad- uates . Large-scale lectures are not the result of inadequate staff/student ratios but are attributable to organisational structures . It is recommended that a clearer distinction be drawn between the Hogescholen as vocational training for uppergeneral secondary education (xavo) graduates, a three-year academy forgeneral university education for pre-university (vwo) graduates and a second stageforprofeS5ionally -oriented university degree programmes . In addition the decision-malting powers concerning curricula should not reside with university departments but should be vested in an overarching curriculum board. W ISE B EFO R E T H E EVE N T

2 0 2$ years WR R

H EALTH AN D WELF AR E

22 A Reappraisal of Welfare Policy (198 2) In the absence of a shaping vision for welfare policy there is a risk of inadequate direc - tion and appraisal . Social objec tives - especially social integration - should begiue n greater weight in government policy . The report links the citizen's individual welfare to his or her personal responsibility and resources. Fu rthermore it is recommended tha t apartfrom individual welfare, social objectives , such as social equality, social integra - tion and social stability, should receive greater attention . Recommendations: mod ifica - tion of the health-carefunding system so as to provide incentives to weigh costs an d benefits; decentralisation ofnon-institu tional mental health care to the municipalities and provinces; and more flezi6leretirement-age provisions .

~g8 36 Immigrant Policy (1989 ) see also `Demography' and `Employment '

38 Work in Perspective (iggo ) see also `Employment' and `Economy '

52 Public Health Care (1997 ) Due in particular to the ageing ofsociety, the necessary risk-solidarity in health care is coming under increasing pressure . The Council 's analysis reveals the necessity for delimiting the basic package of care for which the community should accept responsibility. Supplementary care would then be the subject ofprivate arrangements in thefree market. This repo rt sets out instrumentsfor delimiting the basic package.

Pre liminar y s tudi es : L . J . G unnin g-Sche p e r s, G . J . Kr o njee, R . A . Spa s off (red ), Fund a mental questions about the future of heal th care (V95 .1996 )

EN VI R O NM E N T AN D SPATIAL PLA NN I N G

37 Institutions and Cities (iggo) In comparison with other countries the Dutch central government has played a comparatively minor role in strengthening the urban structure of the country . The big cities -Amsterdam, The Hague, Rotterdam and Utrecht- should be given greaterfinancial and administra tive powers. They should also bear greater responsibility themselves for developments in the cities in the economic and social fields . B S URVEY S

41 Environmental Po licy: Strategy, Ins tru ments and E nforcement; report in r esponse to a requ est for a dvi ce ( 1992) Environmental policy is a government task. The report examines a more rational and effective choice of insbuments for the elaboration of environmental policy . It isparticu - larly importantfor measures to be taken at the correct administrative level . A levy on energy consumption is elaborated by way of example . Environmental policy should be regarded as a learning process; the relationship between goals, time-paths and th e instruments used should be continually reappraise d. Recommendations : conv e rsion of the Environmental Protection (General Provisions) Act (WABM) into a regulatory tax on undue energy consumption, introdu ction ofa depo sit money/levy system on manure, and an obligation for companies to provide public information on the negative environmental effects of their activities .

42 Ground for Choices . Four Perspectives for the Rural Areas in the X99 European Community (1992 ) see also `Technology' and `International relations ' Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy is required on account ofthe ruing produc- tiuity ,g rowing surpluses and funding problems . In particular this concerns a debate about the goals of the policy, whereas the emphasis now is primarily on the instruments ofpolicy . The parameters for the technical developments until around the year 2oiS are given on the basis offour scenarios (free market and free trade, regional development, nature and lands cape and environmental protection) . All s cenarios require less agricultural land and European agriculture would generate less employment than at present. The Ma cShany plan does not provide sufficient compensationforsu rplus production, as the latter is primarily due to the excessively large agric ultural area .

44 Sustained Risks: a Lasting Phenomenon ; report and response to a request for advice (1994) The report centres around thefact that environmental risks cannot be objectively determined scientifically . Risks will be assessed differently depending on the vision take n towards nature and society . The choices that have to be made in environmental policy are normative, not objective. There is therefore no fused environmental utilisation space; the la tter arises from a public debate conce rn inggoals and risks . The report elaborates fourscenarios on the basis of the `exploiting', `managing', `conser- uing " and `safeguarding 'perspecriuesfoideuelopments in the field offood supply , energy supply, nature conservation, raw materials and drinking water. The perspec- tiuesare based on estimates concerning the support-base ofnature and society . W ISE B EFO R E TH E EVE N T

20/25 years WRR

53 Spatial Development Policy (199 8) This report argues for a reorientation ofspatial plann ing . The analysis ofthe changing context ofsparial planning policy makes it clear that the present system does no t measure up to the challenges at hand. On this basis the Council considers that thefor m and content ofspatial planning policy are in need of radical modification . The scope to direct infrastructure policy should be explicitly expanded. There is a need for ope n forms ofplanning in which society is involved at the earliest possible stage. A broade r weighing ofinteresu can be achieved by means of integrated planning at regional level . National interests can be articulated more clearly in na tionalprojects ofan imperative nature. Under this approach spatial planning would become part ofpolitical decision - making at the relevant geographical level . zoo Preliminary studies : A . M .J . Kreukel s, W.G .M . Salet (ed), Debating institutions and cities (V76,1992) N .T. Bi sc h off, R . H .G . Jo ngma n , D ev el op ment of rura l a reas i n E uro p e : t h e c la im for nature (V79 .1993)

Working documents: W .J . van der Weijden, H . van der Wal, H .J . de Graaf, N .A . van Brussel, W.J . ter Keurs, Vakgroep Milieubiologie, Rijksuniversiteit Leiden, mmv Th . Bakker, Landbouw-

Economisch Instituut, Towards an integrated agriculture (W4 .1984 ) G .H .J . de Koning, H . Janssen, H . van Keulen, Input and output coefficients of various cropping and livestock systems in the European Communities (W62, 1997 )

D . Scheele, Formulation and characteristics of goal (W64 .1993 ) J .D . Bulens, A .K . Bregt, Crop production potential of rural areas within the European Communities L GIS and data model (W65 .1992) G .J . Reinds, H .A .J . van Lanen, Crop production potential of rural areas within the European Communities 11 : A physical land evaluation procedure for annual crops and grass (W66, 1992 ) G .J . Reinds, G .H .J . de Koning, J .D . Bulens, Crop production potential of rural areas within the European Communities I11 : Soils, climate and administrative regions (W67,199z ) G .H .J . de Koning, C .A . van Diepen, Crop production potential of rural areas within the European Communities IV : Potential, water-limited and actual crop production (W68, 1992) H .A .J . van Lanen, C .M .A . Hendriks, J .d . Bulens, Crop production potential of rural areas within the European Communities V : Qualitative suitability assessment for forestry and fruit crops (W69 .1992) B SURVEY S

IN TE RNATIONAL R ELA TI ON S

23 The German Factor. A Survey of Sensitivity and Vulnerabili ty in the Relationship between the Netherlands and the Federal Republic (198 2) The Netherlands is highly sensitive to developments in the Federal Republic and to the policies in that country in the economic, security, ecological and spatial planningfields. The policy freedom of the Dutch gove rnment in thesefields is compara tively limited.

28 The Unfinished European integration (1986) The repo rt examines the changes in the existing distribution ofpowers in the Commun- ity's decision-making structure that would, as a minimum, be requited for thefurthe r completion ofa common market in terms of which the relevant Community and national governments could conduct effective industri al and agricultural policies . ~rn

3 1 Culture and Diplomacy (1987) Increasing the level ofeducarion, the arts and sciences in the Netherlands should be th e principalgoal offoreign cultural policy . Thegoal ofgood relations with other countries should occupy only second place . In connection with the process of interna ti onalisatio n it is disquieting that the international contacts in the cultural field have appeared to stagnate over the past ten years, particularly when it comes to science and highe r education .

32 Financing the European Community (1987) Budgetary authorities and councils of ministers should be tied to binding decision- making rules . In addition the Community should begiuen limited power of taxation in the longer term.

42 Ground for Choices. Four Perspectives for the Rural Areas in the European Community (igg2) see also `Technology' and `Environment and spatial planning '

48 Stability and Security in Europe . The Changing Foreign Policy Arena (1995) Analysis of thefai-reaching changes in the international scene around 1989 -i99o . The security situa tion, in particular has changed. It is importantfor the Netherlands to co- operate in theformation ofa `coregroup'led by Germany and France if this could lead to the deepening of European integration . WI SE B EFO R E T H E E V E N T

z o/: S years wx R

Prelimin ary studie s: W .J . Derck sen (ed), The fu ture of I ndustria l Re lations in Europe (V7i, 199o) J . Rupnik e .a ., Chal len ges i n the east (V9o,1995 )

Working d ocuments: F. van der Ploeg, Macro economic policy coordination and moneta ry integration : a European perspective (W4z,1989 ) W.J . Dercksen (ed), The future of industrial relations in Europe. Conference documents (W53,1990) NRIT, Trends in tourism and recreation in the European Community. Ou tl ine report

(W6o, i99i ) H . Wallace, W. Wallace, Flying together in a larger and more diverse European Union

W87,1995) ~o z ( J . Kol, Bloc fo rmatio n , fr agmentation an d stab ility in the world economy (W88, 1995) A . Brouw e r s, M . Kw as t- v an Duurs en , H . Ruy g , Per ception s of fut ur e d e ve l o pm e n ts in the European Union ; conference report (W9o,1995) B S URV E Y S

FUNCTIONS AND COMPOSITION OF THE COUNCIL AND BUREA U

I N TRODUCTIO N

Under the WRR Act of Establishment , the Council consists of at least five and no more than eleven members . Member s of the Council are nominated by the Prime Mini ster in consultation with the Council of Ministers. Generally speaking this is done in consultation with the (future) Cha irman of the Council. As a rule the composition of the Coun cil is based not just on the scientific, academic and per sonal qualifications of the propo sed members and an adequate spread of di sciplines but also on a more or le ss balanced composition in a social and political sense. In addition the members of the Council must have an interest in policy i ssues and be prepared to contr ibute to each other 's activities .

X03 Memb ers of the Counc il are dr awn primarily from univer sities, where they will often already have completed a career a s a dean or in stitute director. In addition some come from governmen t departments, some were government mini sters before joining the Coun cil, and finally in each Council term some members have been appointed from industry.

To date the following disciplines have generally been represented in the Council : economic s, law, sociology, agricultural science and political science; members with a background in natural science s or technology have also been consistently appointed. Member s are appointed for a period of five years and can be re -appointed once . With the exception of the Chairman the appointment is generally a part-time one, one of the reasons being to en sure that member s stay in touch with the real world . Member s of the Council are not civil servants in the sense of the law: they do not act on the instructions ofa minister but are independent, as laid down in a separate regulation concerning their legal status.

Apart from ordinary members the Council also has advisory members. On an ex officio basis these are the director s of the planning agencies : the Central Planning Office, the Social and Cultural Planning Office, the National Spatial Planning Agen cy and the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RCVM). The advisory member s meet with the Council several times a year , partly in ord er to co-ordinate their activities. In addition experts are recruited from time to time for a specific project or particular period of time. The WRR is a 'working' Council. Member s are expected to take up their pens or take their place at the monitor and to work on r eports; the Council WI SE B EFO R E T H E EVE N T

20/25 ye ars WRR

is therefore more than ju st a review board that approve s or reje cts the work of other s (i.e. the WRR re search staff) . At the same time, many (draft) texts or iginate with th e research staff which, dire cted b y the Council Secreta ry, ass ists the Council in it s ac tivitie s. Th e reports to the government are prepared in proje ct group s, chaired by a member of the Counc il, in which Council and staff members work on an equ al footing . A bal anced distribu - tion of di scipline s is also aimed at among the re sear ch staff (currently numberin g 14 perman ent po sition s). T he staff member s are civil servant s attached to the Min is try of Gener al Affairs. They generally have an established record of scholarship before joining the WRR ; the m ajority of the staff members have do ctorate s and some staff members hold down part - time university po sts (as profe ssor s or le cturer s) . The permanent staff positions are not suitable as a'first job' straigh t after un iver sity, but th e Z a4 nature of the work also means that they are not particularly suitable as the final stage ofa person's career. Despite the fact that staff member s are civil servants and depending of course on the state of the labour market, a reasonable turnover has been achieved over the years: only three staf members have been with the WRR since the inception (i.e. longer than zo years). Apart from the permanent staff position s experiments have been m ade in recent year s with temporary appointments of young academics to the various Council projects . Such tempor ary appoin tments are on a contract basis charged to the Coun cil's research budget.

The efficiency of the Council's work is greatly promoted by the availability of its own library which, although limited in size, specialises in the areas of futures studies, socio-economic policy, the relationship between science and policy and environmental policy . The library also gathers scientific material for the Council. The day-to-day support provided by the wxR's own administrative and domestic staff are of great value to the Council . B SURVEYS

PER S ONALI A

COMPOSITION FIRST COUNCIL 1 97 2 - 1 977 : dr. J. Kremers (chairman) (til August i, 1 977) prof.dr. J .S. Cramer W.F. Schut dr. H .M. in't Veld-Langeveld dr. W.J. Bee k (ti l M arc h i, 1 9 74 ) prof.dr . C .J .F . Bo tt cher (d l Septemb er i, 1976) prof.dr . G . W. Rathenau ( fr o m M ay 1974 ) prof. J . M . Pola k (fr o m Augu st 1 ) 974 X05 H.A . van Stiphout ( fr o m Septe mb e r 1974)

Executive secretary : E .D .J . Kruijtbosch (ril October i, 1975) dr. P.R . Baehr (from M arc h i, 1976) Deputy secretary: M .C .E . van Gendt

COMPOSITION SECOND COUNCIL 1 97 8 - 1 9 82 :

Th . Quen 6 (chairman) (fro m M arc h 1 978 ) prof.dr . J . Boldingh H . A . van Stiphout dr . H .M . in 't Veld-Langeveld prof. dr . J . Volge r prof. dr . C .T. de Wit prof. dr . A . van der Zwan prof. dr . A . H . J .J . Kolnaar (til July i, 1980) prof. M . Scheltema (from January 1979 ril September i, ig8o) prof. dr . N . H . Doube n (from September i, 198o)

Executive secretary: dr . P .R . Baehr Depu ty secreta ry: dr . M . C . E . van Gendt (dl March 24, ig8o) dr . W. van Drimmelen (from June IS, X980) WI SE BEFO R E THE EVEN T

2o/25 yea rs wxn

CO M POSITIO N THI R D COU N CIL 1983-1987 :

prof. Th . Quen 6 (chairman) (til February i, 1985) prof. dr. W . Albeda (chairman) (from September i, 1985 ) prof. dr. P. R . Baehr prof. dr. N . H . Doube n prof. C . J . van Eijk prof. L . A . Geelhoed prof. dr. C . J . M . Schuyt dr. A .A .Th . M . van Trie r (deceased N ovember 26, 1983) prof. dr. M .A . Layendecker-Thung (dl October 1984 ) prof. dr. C . T. de Wit (til N ovember i8, 1986) dr. K . Tee r (from January i, 1985) z o 6 prof. dr. A .M . J . Kreukel s (from June i, 1986 )

Executive secr eta ry :

dr. W. van Drimmelen (from Febru ary 21, 1983 ) Deputy secreta ry : J .C .F . Bl e tz (from A pr il 20, 1983 )

COMPOSITION FOURTH COUNCIL 1 98 E - 1 99 2 :

prof.dr . W. Albeda (chairman) (dl June iggo) pro£dr . F .W. Ru tten ( chairma n ) (from July i, i99o ) prof. dr . H . P .M . Ad r ia ansens dr . M . A . v an Da mme -van We e le prof.dr . A . M .J . Kreuke ls prof.dr . B . M .S . van Praag prof.dr . R . Rabbinge dr . A .D . Wolff-Albers

prof.dr . C .J . R ijnvos (til Septembe r i, i9g9) p rof. L .A . Geelhoe d (ril July i, 1990 ) prof. dr . H . R . v an Gunst er e n (from September i, i989) pro£dr . D . J . Wo lfso n (from April i, iggo) J . P. H . Donner (fro m November i, i99o) H . H o o y ka as (from Jul y i, igqi) B SURVEYS

Executive secreta ry: dr . W. van D rimmelen (ti l M arch i6, i99i) dr. A .P .N . Nauta (from July i, i99i ) Depu ty secreta ry : J .C . F . Bletz

COMPOSITION FIFTH COUNCIL 1 993- 1 997 :

J . P. H . Donner (chairman) prof.dr. H .P. M . Adriaansens prof.dr. R . Rabbinge prof.dr. D . J . Wolfson X0 7 H . Hooykaas (til Janua ry i , 1 995) prof dr . W. Derkse n ( fr om Ap ri l 1993) prof. dr . L .J . Gunning - Schepers ( fr om January 1995 ) prof.dr . M . C . Br an ds (advisory member fr om 1994 n1 1 99 6 ) prof. M . Scheltem a (advisory member from Ap ri l 1997)

Executive secreta ry : dr . A . P. N . Nauta (til Jun e 1995) J . C . F. Bletz (from July 1995 ) Deputy secretary: H . C . van Latesteij n (from July 1995)

BUREAU WR R

Dire c tor : J .C .F . Bl etz D epu ty d irector : H .C . v an Latesteij n

RESE AR CH STAFF A S OF OCTOBER 1, 1997 : dr. K .W .H . van Beek dr. J . M . Bekkering dr. M . A . Hajer dr. C .A . Hazeu WI SE H EPORE T H E EVE N T

20/25 y eah wwt

N .D . Hi e lkem a dr . F .J .P .M . Hoefn agel dr . P . den Hoed d r . R .M . A . J an s w e i jer dr . W. M . de Jon g dr . G .J . Kro nje e prof.dr . C .W. A . M . va n Par id on dr . J .C .I . de Pre e D . Scheel e prof. I .J . Schoonenboom M . S ie Dhia n H o

2 0 8 Ex ternal communication dr. S .J . Langewe g

Automatio n expert R .J. de Bruin

Library staff F.C. Bom C . M . J . va n H elfter en B .L .S . van d er Leij

General affairs C. de Vries

Administrative staff Y. de Graaf-de Graaf M .T h Nuij ten -Penni ng s A .A . M . van R oije n M .J .J . van Soolingen L .A .C . Tlipa n S . Wasse naa r

Dome stic staff C . M . Ve rh e i j- Z o u te nb ier D . M acleod M anuel M . W. G . Netten -Fr anchimon B SURVEY S

ESTABLISHMENT ACT WR R

I NTRODU C TIO N

In the Advi sory Councils Framework A ct th at came into for ce on i January 1997, th e government m ade an exception with respect to the Scientific Coun cil for Government Policy (wu R). T his exception was m ade when revi sing th e advi sory system , on a ccount of the s pe cial position occupied by th e WRR on the b asis of its re search tasks and b ecause the Council's continued exi stence ha s not been an i ssue . The WRR Act of E stablishment has, however, been amended with respect to the determination of the programme of work. The practice whereby the WRR draws up its own programme of work, after consultations between the Prime Minister and the chairman of the Council, has been enshrined in the Act (Act of amendment dated ii December . The government considered that this 1997) 1iog would, on the one hand, do justice to the independence of the WRR while , on the other, providing for balanced political involvement in the WRR, for example because the Prime Minister also takes cognizance of the Council of Ministers' views concerning the Council's proposed programme of work . In accordance with overall government policy, this proposal furthermore provided for the abolition of the age-limit for Council members, while the dated transitional and concluding provisions of the Establishment Act were also deleted .

INTEGRAL TEXT OF THE SCIENTIFIC COUNCIL FOR GOVERNMENT POLICY ESTABLISHMENT AC T

ACT of 30 June 1976 Esta bli s hing a Scie n tific Co unc il fo r Gove rnment Po l ic y

We, Juliana, by the Grace of God , Queen of the Netherlands, Princess of Orange Nassau, etc . , etc . , etc To a ll and singular to whom these presents shall come, Greeting! Whereas We have considered that for the shaping of Government po li cy it is desirable that informati on on developments which may affect society in the long term be supplied systemati- cally, that the establishment of a permanent body giving advice and assistance to replace the Provisional Scientific Council for Government Policy may contribute to that end : We, therefore, having heard the Council of State, and in con s ultation with the States General, have approved and decreed as We hereby approve and decree : W ISE B EFORE T H E EVE N T

20/25yrnrs wtui

Article i i There shall be a Scientific Council for Government Policy, hereinafter referred to as 'the Council' . z The Council will not be considered an adviso ry council as meant in the Adviso ry Councils Act.

Article 2 The Council shall : a supply for Government Policy scienti fically sound information on developments which may affect socie ty in the long term and draw timely a tten tion to anomalies and bottlenecks to be anticipated ; b provide a scien tific structure which the Gove rnment could use when establishing priorities and which would ensure that a consistent policy is pursued ; c with respect to studies unde rtaken in the sphere of research on future developments and long-term planning in both public and private sectors , make recommendations on the elimination of structural inadequacies, the fu rtherance of specific studies and the improvement of communica tion and co-ordination .

Arti cle 3 i The Council shall comprise at least five and at most eleven members . z We shall appoint the Chairman and the other members of the Council on the recommendation of Our Prime Minister/Minister for General Affairs, made in accordance with the consensus of the Council of Ministers . 3 The Chairman and other members shall be appointed for five years, except in the event of earlier discharge by Us . They shall be immediately re-eligible for appointment for one subsequent term . 4 A person appointed to fi ll an interim vacancy shall resign on the date on which the person he was appointed to replace would have had to resign .

Article 4 i The post of Chairman of the Council sha ll be a full-time function . 2 The other members of the Council shall make available for Council work at least two working -days a week of their total working-hours . 3 In excep ti onal cases the Prime Minister/Minister for General Affairs may stipulate that the working-hours made available to the Council under the preceding para - graph be decreased .

Article 5 The legal status of the Chairman and of the other members shall be laid down by General Administrative Order. B SURVEY S

Article 6 i There shall be adviso ry members . 2 The Council may make recommendations to Our Prime Minister/Minister for General Affairs in the matter of the appointment of advisory members . 3 We shall appoint the advisory members of the Council on the recommendation of Our Prime Minister/Minister for General Affairs, made in accordance with the consensus of the Council of Ministers.

Article 7 i The Council shall have an office headed by a Secretary to assist it . 2 We shall appoint the Council's Secretary on the recommendation of Our Prime Minister/Minister for General Affairs.

Article 7 a i The Council will draw up its programme of work after having consulted Our Prime Minister/Minister for General Affairs . 2 The Council may change its programme of work after having consulted Our Prime Minister/Minister for General Affairs . 3 For the consulta tions referred to in the first and second paragraph Our Prime Minister/Minister for General Affairs will hear the Council of Ministers.

A rticle 8 i The Council shall, in discharging its duties, avail itself of the results of research undertaken by other institu ti ons . z General Government departments and institutions, and local authorities sha ll supply the Council with such information as it requires . 3 The Council may apply direct to other institutions or persons for information . 4 Our Ministers shall ensure that the Council, if the discharge of its duties so requires , be informed in time of any research on future developments and of the results of such research undert aken under their responsibili ty, as also of any assumptions and intentions as regards long-term policy .

Ar tic l e 9 i The Council may consult directly with experts from the public and private sectors. z The Council may set up committees . It shall req u i re the approval of such of Our Ministers as may be involved for any assistance given by experts from the public sector . 3 The Council may maintain direct international contacts in its own particular sphere . WI SE B EFO R E TH E E V E N T

x o/z s yrnrs wRR

Article to The Council may, on its own initiative, request that certain studies or research projects be undertaken . This shall be done through the intermediary of such of Our Ministers as may be involved where departments or institutions working under them are concerned .

Article 12. i The Council shall report to the Government through the intermediary of Our Prime Minister for General Affairs . 2 Our Prime Minister/Minister for General Affairs shall inform the Council of the findings of the Council of Ministers with respect to such reports . 3 The Council of Ministers shall hear the Council, if it so requests, in connection with the findings referred to in the preceding paragraph . ziz

Ar ti cle 1 3 i The reports submitted to the Government by t h e Council shall be publ ic, in so far as secrecy sha l l not have to b e observed . z The Council shall publish the reports after the Council of Ministers has studied them .

Article 1 4 The Council may issue fu rth e r rules for its procedure .

Article 16 This Act may be cited as the Scientific Council for Government Policy (Establishment) Act .