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POST VISIT REPORT ROUNDTABLE TALK THE PAKISTAN DILEMMA: WHY THE WORLD SHOULD CARE (11 JUNE 2012)

General 1. Dr. Claude Rakisitis, an Australian journalist visited NDU on 11 June 2012 to participate in the roundtable talk on “The Pakistan Dilemma: Why the world should care”, arranged by ISSRA. The roundtable comprised two presentations, one from Pakistani side and one by Australian journalist, followed by an interactive session. The Pakistan’s perspective was presented by Dr. Rifaat Hussain. The topic of his presentation was ‘Pakistan’s role in the global war against terror: regional and global implications’. Dr. Rakisitis gave brief presentation on his book entitled, ‘The Pakistan Dilemma: Why the World Should Care’. 2. In addition to ISSRA faculty, the event was also attended by renowned scholars and practitioners from various backgrounds including the Think Tanks, Distinguished Visiting Fellows (DVFs), and Faculty Advisors (FAs), representative from Inter-Service Intelligence Agency, Joint Staff Headquarters, Higher Education Commission and faculty members of the National Defence University. The Former DG ISI Lieutenant-General Ahmad Shuja Pasha also participated in the roundtable as the Distinguished Visiting Fellow. Call on the President NDU at his Office

3. President NDU welcomed the Guest in his office and after pleasantries following issues came under discussion:- a. While highlighting the state of Pak - US relations, President NDU stressed that though he relations are not comfortable but the good thing is that relations are intact and both are talking to each other to resolve the issues. Regarding anti-Americanism in Pakistan, he indicated that it is more due to frustration and not because of

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ideological factors. President NDU asked Dr. Claude if Common Wealth platform can play a role in improvement of relations. His reply was in negative. He rather pointed out that the platform is just a talk show as UK at the moment is not a power to wrecken with. Even Queen plays a role only in UK but not in Australia. b. Dr. Claude also explained that questions are being raised about the logic for existence of NATO when USSR is no more existing. Even its role beyond 2014 is now questioned. It is assumed that US would soon lose interest in NATO due to its weak economy and more interest in Asia. c. While talking about US Defence Secretary, Leon Panetta’s statement about giving a bigger role to India in Afghanistan, President NDU pointed out that such statements do not help in improvement of relations. d. President NDU also asked Dr. Claude if Australia is willing to play any role in Asia to which Dr. Claude replied that some possibility does exist for Kashmir issue but at the moment there is no such appetite in Canberra. Opening Remarks by DG ISSRA 4. The proceedings of the roundtable were opened with the recitation from the Holy Quran, followed by the welcome address by Major General Ziauddin Najam, DG ISSRA. In his welcome address, DG ISSRA highlighted the importance of the topic and introduced the two dignitaries. He indicated that generally whenever we read about Pakistan it starts with the phase that ‘Pakistan is going through critical time’, this is pessimist and narrow view of the situation actually, Pakistan is passing through a transitional phase, which is critical for Pakistan’s security. However, we need to view the situation in wider perspective. 5. He also said that change is evident in society; it is reasserting itself to revert to its ideological moorings. There is clear-cut push in society and a fight back to it. The society is in conflict between the forces who believed in the ideology of Pakistan and the obscurantist forces. The emerging period of

RESTD 4 RESTD realization is clearly discernable by the fiercely independent judiciary, independent and powerful media, strong and vibrant civil society and most importantly the bright new generation. There is a strong desire at large, to root out corruption from society. The anger and frustration among the people is harbinger of change. Pakistan has shown defiance and strong resistance which has surprised the world. There is a need to carryout a deep but dispassionate catharsis of the emerging situation to evolve a way forward. Initiation by Dr. Syed Rifaat Hussain 6. After the introductory remarks, Dr Rifaat initiated the discussion on Pakistan’s role in the global war against terrorism. The gist of his talk includes:- a. When 9/11 happened, Pakistan was as much caught by surprise as the rest of the world. The country was least prepared to deal with the aftermath of this catastrophic event. Pakistan became a pivotal state because of its geographical contiguity to landlocked Afghanistan and its very close links with the Taliban regime in Kabul. Pakistan’s support was seen as critical to the success of the GWOT. b. United States made following demands to Pakistan:- (1) Stop al Qaeda operatives at your border, intercept arms shipments through Pakistan and end all logistic support for bin Laden. (2) Blanket over flight and landing rights. (3) Access to Pakistan’s naval bases, air bases and borders. (4) Immediate intelligence and immigration information. (5) Condemn the September 11 attacks and curb all domestic expressions of support for terrorism against the United States, its friends or allies. (6) Cut off all shipments of fuel to the Taliban and stop Pakistani volunteers from going into Afghanistan to join the Taliban. (7) Should the evidence strongly implicate Osama bin Laden and the al-Qaeda network in Afghanistan and should Afghanistan

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and the Taliban continue to harbor him and his network, Pakistan will break diplomatic relations with the Taliban government, end support for the Taliban and assist us in the aforementioned ways to destroy Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda network. c. The Pakistani perspective about the war against terrorism is as following:- (1) The sources of Afghan insurgency lie primarily within Afghanistan and not in the FATA area. (2) There is no military solution to the insurgency/war in Afghanistan. (3) United States must negotiate with the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan can play the role of a facilitator but is unable to break a deal. (4) The US strategic failure in Afghanistan will have disastrous consequences for Pakistan’s internal security. d. Pakistan took following important measures in the war against terror:- (1) Sharing of intelligence on terrorist activity with the United States and its allies. (2) Ban on Jihadi organizations such as LET, JEM, TNFJM, SSP, and TNSM. (3) Strengthening of the anti-terrorist law and the setting up of anti- terrorist courts with military’s participation. (4) Condemnation at the highest level of acts of international terrorism performed by groups with societal links and roots in Pakistan, ban on display and carrying of weapons, freezing of the financial assets of the banned Jihadi groups. (5) Freezing of bank accounts of more than 50 organizations suspected of links with sectarianism or international terrorism. (6) The decision was also made to incorporate the anti-terrorism recommendations of the inter-governmental Financial Action

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Task Force on Money Laundering in Pakistani banking laws to arrest and trail those involved in terrorist activity; hunting down remnants of “al-Qaeda” network in Pakistan; banned “hate speech” during Friday prayers and set up special anti-terrorist task force. e. Since September 2001, Islamabad has captured 689 Al-Qaeda operatives and handed over 369 to United States. Those captured by Pakistani authorities have included many prominent Al-Qaeda figures such as Abu Zubayda, Khalid Sheikh Mohammad and Abu Faraj al- Libbi. In addition, Pakistan has paid heavy price in ‘War on Terror’. It has cost the country more than 37,000 civilian lives, nearly 6,300 security forces, and $78 billion in financial losses. The U.S. National Counterterrorism Center reports that there was an average of more than 26 terrorist attacks each week in Pakistan in 2011; only Afghanistan and Iraq suffered a higher number of incidents. The costs for Pakistan are not only financial but also entail developmental losses, negative international image, threats to internal cohesion of the state and society and expenditure in blood and treasure. f. In this context, Pakistan has an option to evolve a comprehensive counterinsurgency security strategy to deal with the rising menace of terrorism while turning inward and focus on the rising threat of armed militancy within the country. Pakistan can also reverse country’s drift into extremism by strengthening liberal and progressive forces. It should be ready to pay the necessary price for establishing the writ of the Pakistani state. Moreover, it is equally important to resolve the crisis of governance afflicting the country. g. While highlighting the salient of the Tora Bora Report entitled ‘Tora Bora Revisited: How We Failed to Get Bin Laden and why it Matters Today”, he explained that the report was presented to the United States Senate’s committee on Foreign Relations chaired by John F. Kerry on November 30, 2009. The report pinpointed the failure of

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American commanders who refused to commit the necessary U.S. soldiers and Marines in Tora Bora which allowed Mullah Mohammed Omar and other Taliban leaders to escape. Hence, it was American strategic failure which allowed Al Qaeda and other individuals to find refuge in Pakistan. h. The blow back effects on Pakistan were worst to witness. The armed revolt and insurgency broke out in FATA resulted in the rise of TTP. Security forces came under the suicide attacks, Jahadi culture flourished and informal violence was galvanized. The anti terror measures caused serious human and material costs on Pakistan. Even, the writ of the Pakistani state was being challenged by armed militancy. i. After the Salala incident, Pak-US relations have been in deep freeze. The Pakistan ambassador to U.S. Sherry Rehman set forth Islamabad’s prerequisites for “resetting” the bilateral relationship to include:- (1) Apologizing for the Salala incident. (2) Releasing suspended CSF reimbursements. (3) Increasing counterterrorism intelligence sharing. (4) Halting drone strikes. (5) Shifting to a policy of “trade not aid” by enhancing Pakistan’s access to U.S. markets. j. Finally, Dr. Riffat added that Pakistan has been facing grave challenges in GWOT; it lacks legitimacy in the eyes of the Pakistani people and has become an unpopular war. The US drone attacks violate Pakistani sovereignty and further inflame anti-American sentiment. The intense U.S. pressure to do more is counterproductive. Jihad has become a double-edged sword for Pakistan, the graph of terrorist incidents and violence is going upward.

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k. Pakistan needs Western help to overcome this challenge, but this help is not available without conditions. In July 2011, the Obama administration suspended up to $800 million planned for security assistance to Pakistan and at least $1 billion in approved “coalition support fund” (CSF) reimbursements to Pakistan. In the view of many U.S. analysts, Pakistan’s May 2012 intransigence on the issues of GLOCs and insistence on an apology for Salala may prove costly and represent a missed opportunity to work cooperatively with the United States in the region. Dr Claude’s Presentation 7. After Dr. Rifaat presentation, Dr. Claude Rakisitis made presentation on his upcoming book entitled “The Pakistan Dilemma: Why the World Should Care”. Dr. Claude stated that there are six reasons why the world should care about Pakistan. These are strategic, geographical, nuclear, demographic size, importance in Muslim world and Pakistan’s contribution to UN Peacekeeping mission. a. The strategic location of Pakistan makes its very important country as well as a critical player for tapping the economic resources of the region. The possibility of oil and gas pipelines from Central Asia, Iran and also to India would pass through Pakistan. The other reason for being strategically important is Pakistan’s relation with China, the regional power. Pakistan has a deepening relationship with China. She is actively supporting Pakistan in defense, trade and energy sectors. Apart from bilateral relationship, China‘s arms export from 2000 to 2010 to Pakistan was 50 % of China’s total arms export. In 2010 alone, Pakistan was destination of 60 % of China’s arms sale to the world. Pakistan and China have jointly developed first fighter plane and China has offered to sell 36 of its most advanced fighter planes to Pakistan. However, on the question of building naval facility at the port of Gawadar and bilateral defense accord, China has so far not showed any interest. Trade is another important area between

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China and Pakistan. The bilateral trade between the two states stands at about $9 billion in comparison to Indo-China which stands at $60 billion. b. The next very reason for the importance of Pakistan is its location. There are two burning issues, Afghanistan and Kashmir adjacent to Pakistan. The Indo-Pak relationship has seen few positive signs of improvement. Pakistan has given India the status of ‘Most Favored Nation’ and India supported Pakistan for the United States Security Council bid. India also dropped its opposition to EU tariff cuts offered to Pakistan following the disaster 2010 floods in Pakistan. The other reason for Pakistan’s importance is its geographical location that is next to Afghanistan, which means Pakistan being neighbour is a critical player in finding solution after withdrawal of ISAF-NATO forces. On Pak-US relationship, the first thing the U.S needs to do is ‘apology’ for Salala incident. There must be some mechanism and understanding on the drone strikes. Pakistan is a major player in the whole counterterrorism and counterinsurgency efforts in Afghanistan and it has cost Pakistan a lot. When President Obama came to power it was believed that drone attacks would be controlled but on the contrary, 96% of drone strikes occurred during Obama’s administration. Drones have hit some high profile targets which are in favour of Pakistan but on the other side 20% loss of civilian lives have caused problems for Pakistan’s government. Pakistan still host large number of Afghan refugees which date back to the time of Soviet Union. The second wave of refugees arrived in post 2001 that has caused immense burden on Pakistan and aggravated economic problems of the country. c. The third important reason is that Pakistan is a member of exclusive nuclear club. The nuclear arms race between Pakistan and India has resulted in the weaponization of South Asia. From the last decade, the two sides realized the seriousness of the issue and have

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taken nuclear risk reduction measures. Apart from this, in nuclear energy cooperation, the Australian legal body has changed its policy about export of uranium and decided to sell uranium to India but not to Pakistan. The approach is contradictory towards Pakistan and the real reason behind this is mounting US pressure. d. The fourth reason for why the world should care about Pakistan is its demography. It is sixth most populous country of the world and one of the largest Muslim countries. Pakistan’s population is growing rapidly and by 2050, it is estimated that it will reach to 317 million and would be the fourth largest Muslim country in the world. On the other hand, poverty is also on the increase and too many resources are spent on the non socio-economic development. e. The fifth reason for the importance of Pakistan is the role of Pakistan in the Muslim world and in OIC. It is estimated that by 2030, the global population will be 8 billion and over 25 percent of the population will be Muslim among them Pakistan will have 12 percent of that population. Thus, Pakistan is an important country in Muslim world. f. The sixth reason for the importance of Pakistan is her leading contribution to UN Peacekeeping operations. Since 1960s, about 30,000 Pakistani troops contributed in peacekeeping operations. Today, there are about 9000 troops contributing in different peacekeeping operations around the world. This fact is acknowledged by the fact that Pakistan is elected seventh time as a member of UNSC. Interactive Session 8. The questions and comments were raised on building naval facility at Gawadar port, Indo-Pak nuclear risk reductions, the double standard approach towards Muslim countries, drone strikes, the apology on Salala attack and opening of NATO supply route. There was a consensus that China is not interested in building a naval base at Gawadar. The reality of development is that

RESTD 11 RESTD the first phase was developed with the Belgium assistance, the second by the Chinese assistance and the third by the Singaporean assistance. 9. The US and the West has double standards towards Pakistan and India on nuclear policy which therefore, needs to be reviewed. There is a systematic campaign against safety and security of Pakistan’s nuclear facilities. The concerns were also raised on question of uranium supply and export to India by Australia while comparing it with Indo-US nuclear deal. 10. It was also suggested that India and Pakistan should not limit to nuclear risk reduction but also work for the total risk reduction that is ‘No War Pact’. India should not be taken as an enemy anymore, rather a strategic partner in the South Asian community. 11. There is a general agreement on double standards of the West in dealing with the Muslim World as when it comes to Kashmir, it is taken as an act of terrorism but when it comes to East Timor, everyone comes on board to resolve the issue. The non-Muslims were not called as terrorist in dispute of South Sudan; rather UN and Western Powers intervene diplomatically and resolved the dispute. 12. There was a general agreement on the fact that Pakistan is truly a victim of wrong US military strategies. Apology does not matter for US. They normally violate the rules/norms and apologize. In the Salala case, they are reluctant to apologies because of fear that it will reduce their credibility within America. On the other hand, anti-American sentiments increased in Pakistan. One of the participants considered Leon Panetta, US Defence Secretary, a hurdle in smooth Pak–US relationship because of his irrational approach towards Pakistan. There is a need to come to the solution on the issue of apology as the NATO Chief recently made an apology to Afghan government for the civilian loss in the NATO attack. 13. United States and Pakistan have developed their own narratives but the difference is that US has an upper hand because of being a super power. She is adamant on its narrative. On the other hand, Pakistan’s narrative stands nowhere. Perceptions are always stronger than reality. Pakistan should realize

RESTD 12 RESTD that it should not sit back rather it should project itself in such a way that world should perceive it as a positive partner. 14. During the course of discussion, one of the distinguished participants identified the problem of functional and fractural policy framework in Pak-US relations. The US is talking in different language, raising various objections, however, the US is not pushing Pakistan nor she wish to push. Pakistan has a fractured policy framework with America. The reality is that in both countries, the political and military leaderships have to pay a heavy price for smooth relationship but none of the political leaders in the US or Pakistan has courage to take bold policy decisions. This is evident in case of Salala incident. 15. On the issue of drone attacks, two opinions were emerged in the discussion. First, the drones are doing enough harm to Pakistan in terms of infringement of sovereignty and civilian causalities. Drone attacks are not really taken seriously by Americans. Second opinion saw some credibility in success of drone attacks as they eliminate some high profile terrorist. There is a need to control the number of strikes. One of the participants argued that there is no logical reason for not going into North Waziristan. There are safe heavens in North Waziristan as well as on the other side of the border. North Waziristan looks more like a part of an Arab country rather than of Pakistan. It can safely be called as a United Nations of terrorists. The real issue is that our own house has become a mess. There are problems of law and order and fragile economy. It is for us now to be united. We should set our own house in order, stand up and tell the world that look we can take care of ourselves and that we can take care of North Waziristan as well. 16. The Pakistani society has paid cost not only in dollars but also in psychological domain; the lives are no more secure in Pakistan. Due to lack of security on the Pak-Afghan porous border, militants take shelter in Pakistan. The US has to deploy more troops on the border for ensuring that cross border infiltration does not take place in future. It is also not in the interest of Pakistan to destabilize India or Afghanistan. The challenge of Pakistan is to change its negative relevance to the world. Both speakers were also agreed on the point

RESTD 13 RESTD that Pakistan is under lot of pressure and moving towards a state of destabilization due to continuous American interference. 17. A suggestion was also emerged for building strong networks in Pakistani society that will portray soft image of Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan should maintain commercial ties with all countries even with Israel. There is also a need to adopt a strategic formula, a paradigm shift to a communication strategy that would be representative by top-level experts at the global level, at the multinational level, at international and last but not the least at national level because there is a crisis at national system as well. There is a need to adopt strategic communication system at national and international level under which there should be a proper policy dialogue and active public diplomacy. Every Pakistan national going abroad needs to be properly briefed just as India does. Concluding Remarks 18. DG ISSRA in his concluding remarks emphasized the need of rule of law. He indicated that the issue of sovereignty should be seen in the context of international law. Pakistan has a broad role in stability of Afghanistan. Pakistan’s stability is also important for Afghanistan and India. The participation in war on terror has resulted in brutalization of our own society. 19. At the end, he thanked Dr. Claude Rakisitis for visiting NDU and sharing his views about Pakistan. He also thanked Dr. Rifaat and participants of the roundtable talk for their extremely enlightened discourse with the distinguished guest from Australia.

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Visit – Australian Journalist Dr. Claude Rakisits Annex A 11 June (Monday) 2012

Program

Chair: DG ISSRA

1000 - 1020 Call on President NDU President’s Office

1020 - 1030  Recitation Chair

 Opening Remarks

1030 - 1045 Presentation on “Pakistan Dr. Syed Riffat Hussain role in the war against terror and its significance in regional and global perspective 1050 - 1110 Presentation on The Pakistan Dr. Claude Rakisits Dilemma: Why the world should care 1110 – 1220 Interactive session FCH

1220 – 1230 Wrap-up / Souvenirs FCH

1230 - 1235 Signing visitors book VIP Reception

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Roundtable on: Annex B “The Pakistan Dilemma: Why the World Should Care” With Dr. Claude Rakisits, Australian Journalist 11 June (Monday) 2012 List of Participants S.No Name Designation NDU Command 1. Maj Gen Ziauddin Najam DG ISSRA 2. Dr. Perviz Iqbal Cheema Dean FCS Speakers 3. Dr. Syed Rifaat Hussain Professor, Department of Peace and Conflict Studies, FCS ISSRA Faculty 4. Amb Arif Kamal Dir GS/RS 5. Brig Amir Yaqub Dir C&C 6. Brig Mirza Kamran Zia Dir CEPS/KC&PP 7. Brig Masroor Ahmad Dir DS 8. Brig Khursheed Dir IS/R&P 9. Col Khush M. Khan DD SYK Lib,NDU 10. Lt Col Asif Raza DD KC&PP 11. Lt Col Dr. Saif Ur Rehman DD IS/R&P 12. Lt Col Manzoor Ahmad DD N&MHC Abbasi 13. Lt Col Edgar Felix DD C&C NDU Faculty Advisors 14. AM (R) Masood Akhtar NDU Faculty Advisors 15. Lt Gen (R) Ahmad Shuja NDU Faculty Advisors Pasha 16. V/Adm (R) Iftikhar Ahmad NDU Faculty Advisors Rao Selected DVFs 17. Amb Ali Sarwar Naqvi 18. Amb Tariq Osman Hyder FCS Faculty / FCS Students 19. Dr. Syed Bashir Hussain HOD GPP 20. Col Dr. Mohammad Khan HOD IR 21. Dr. Abdur Rehman Asst Professor 22. Brig (R) Taughral Yamin Asst Professor S.No Name Designation 23. Mr. Syed Ameer Ali Lecturer

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24. Lt Col Muhammad Ahsan Students FCS Khan 25. Maj Shams Uz Zaman Students FCS 26. Anum Azhar Students FCS 27. Ayesha Malik Students FCS 28. Khalid Yasmin Students FCS 29. Saadia Ishaiq Students FCS 30. Ali Ahsan Students FCS 31. Arshad Mahmood Students FCS 32. Shahid Hameed Students FCS 33. Zia Ishaq Students FCS 34. Cdre Arshad Mahmood Khan DS A Div 35. DS DS B Div Rep from JS HQ (JW & Trg Dte), Dte Gen ISI (Sec 52), DG PA GHQ, HEC 36. Rep JS HQ (JW & Trg Dte) 37. Rep Dte Gen ISI 38. Rep HEC Think Tanks 39. Mr. Ejaz Hyder SDPI 40. A/Cdre (R) Khalid Iqbal Consultant IPRI 41. Rep IRS 42. Rep SASSI 43. Rep ISSI

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