New America Foundation Militancy in Pakistan and Impacts on U.S. Foreign Policy Saba Imtiaz, International Security Program Carnegie Fellow August 2014 “What is happening now, seems almost a writing strikes – including the legality of the program and on the wall and God help us if we do not stop the issue of civilian casualties– have these ignorant people from cutting each other’s overshadowed the U.S.-Pakistan relationship and throat and thus bringing comfort and cheer to discussions on counter-terrorism. our enemies.”i However, the fact that Pakistan is still a training Executive Summary and recruitment ground for militants who would seek to attack the United States, and that The state of internal security in Pakistan is a transnational terrorism plots have been traced potentially disruptive factor for the U.S.-Pakistan back to Pakistan, is a key concern. Additionally, relationship. Even if there is no threat posed to this is a concern because of the intensive growth the U.S. and/or American interests by Pakistan- of militant networks in urban Pakistan. This based militant groups, the United States is concerns the United States because these factors concerned by the rise of religious militancy in together enable a network for anti-American Pakistan and the risks it poses to the state, to its militancy in addition to the existing threat from ability to govern effectively, and the toll it is insurgent groups based in Pakistan’s tribal areas. taking on the civilian population. This was underscored by the failed bombing attempt on Times Square in New York in 2010 The focus of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship in that combined both homegrown radicalization recent years has been on the Haqqani network, and the supporting apparatus of Pakistani and to a lesser extent, the Tehrik-e-Taliban militant networks based in the tribal areas. Pakistan, which are based in Pakistan’s tribal areas. These groups have been the target of the The main purpose of this paper is to examine the controversial C.I.A.-run drone program, which is current U.S. assessment of the threat posed by largely the prism through which the U.S.- homegrown militancy in Pakistan’s urban centers Pakistan relationship is seen. Homegrown to American interests in South Asia, as well as to militancy in Pakistan’s urban areas has not been the American homeland. It will also comment on a major issue in the bilateral relationship, though the reported resurgence of groups such as Jaish-e- it has been a source of contention. But drone Mohammad, which for several years went dormant but today appears to be rebuilding a 1. Introduction public profile; implications for the future of homegrown militancy groups are also assessed. It A. Militancy in Pakistan will also look at the role Pakistan-based, homegrown militant groups could play in Since Pakistan’s creation in 1947, religious destabilizing South Asia, as seen by American intolerance and violence has plagued the country. analysts and experts on the region. It will also The division of the Indian subcontinent that saw briefly analyze the growing transnational the creation of Pakistan was marred by one of the ambitions of groups like the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, largest population displacements in the world which has signaled that it could take its campaign and religious violence amongst Hindus, of attacking Shi’ites elsewhere in the region. Muslims, and Sikhs. Since 1958, Pakistan has seen protracted periods of military rule. Its first There is also the potent question of Pakistan’s elected Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the complicity in allowing militant groups to operate leader of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), was within the country. The long-standing view in executed under the military regime of General Pakistan is that anti-India militant groups pose Zia-ul-Haq on charges that he had abetted a no imminent or internal threat to Pakistan – yet conspiracy to murder a political rival. After a could be a useful proxy force in India and decade of military rule, Pakistan returned to Afghanistan – is still ingrained in its military being a “democratic” country with the election of establishment and political sphere. There is little the late Bhutto’s daughter, Benazir Bhutto, as belief amongst U.S. experts in Pakistan and prime minister. Her fractious coalition and former and current policymakers that this policy allegations of corruption led to her dismissal by has changed. However, many do see a growing President Ghulam Ishaq Khan two years later. realization in Pakistan that there is a problem Her rival – the conservative politician Nawaz with homegrown militancy, yet no understanding Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League –was voted of how to resolve it.ii into power in 1990 until he too was removed from office. For the purpose of this paper, I am studying the threats posed specifically by two strains of One more term followed for Bhutto (1993-1996) homegrown militancy in urban areas. The first is and Sharif (1997-1999) respectively until General the ‘traditional’ anti-India groups that have or Pervez Musharraf overthrew Sharif’s government could potentially morph into anti-state groups. in a military coup on October 12, 1999. The second is the sectarian groups that have yet to express any aims of attacking the U.S. but The identity of Pakistan – whether it was meant contribute to militancy in Pakistan. to be a secular or Islamic state – has long been debated by scholars and is closely linked to the idea of militancy in Pakistan.iii Militant groups’ goal to establish a “true” Islamic state in the country takes root from this identity.iv It also remains a rallying cry for right-wing groups– with leaders of conservative parties like the Jamaat-e- new america foundation page 2 Islami criticizing secularismv – even though the country’s “Islamic” credentials were strengthened In the 1970s, the anti-Ahmadi campaign resurged by the passage of the Objectives Resolution in and the Ahmadi sect was legally excommunicated 1949. The Objectives Resolution is part of the from Islam through an amendment to the Pakistani Constitution and states that all laws Pakistani constitution.x Prime Minister Zulfikar must be in line with Islamic principles.vi A Ali Bhutto’s government also sought to appease Council of Islamic Ideology exists to advise right-wing groups by imposing a ban on the sale Parliament on legislation; however, it has no of alcohol to Muslims.xi binding authority but remains an influence on lawmakers and politicians. In 1977, the Pakistan Army, led by General Zia- ul-Haq, launched a coup and overthrew the Successive military and democratic regimes have government. Two years later, Bhutto was tried used religion for political gain as well as exploited and executed after being convicted on charges of religious fault lines in the country that had abetting a conspiracy to murder a political rival. existed since its creation. These fault lines were General Zia-ul-Haq’s regime strengthened the not just about different religions. Intra-Muslim role of hardline Islamism in Pakistan. Measures conflicts began to emerge as early as 1951, when included legal ordinances that equated rape with the first reports of violence against Shi’ites began adultery, thus placing the onus on the victim, to emerge. While many Deobandi Muslim groups changing the law of evidence to reduce the had not supported the idea of Pakistan’s creation, standing of female witnesses, and rewriting they began to take charge of Pakistan’s shift to a school textbooks to place more importance on Deobandi state through rhetoric and riots. Of jihad.xii The Zia regime also further exploited note is the Majlis-e-Ahrar’s anti-Ahmadi sectarianism in the country, allowing groups like movement in the 1950s, as well as protests by the anti-Shi’ite Anjuman-e-Sipah-e-Sahaba (later smaller religious groups like the Islam League, renamed to the Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan) to “demanding the amelioration of suffering [during flourish. The regime feared the influence of a a food crisis] and a greater Islamization of post-revolution Iran and its support to Shi’ite government.”vii activist groups in Pakistan, and sought to counter it with groups such as the Sipah-e-Sahaba In the 1950s, right-wing groups launched a Pakistan.xiii massive campaign against the Ahmadi sect of Islam, calling for its followers – who they B. Pakistan: Fighting by Proxy considered apostates – to be excommunicated from Islam in the constitution.viii Pakistan had long used the idea of militias as a proxy of sorts in its constant war with India over These riots laid the groundwork for what was to the disputed territory of Kashmir, enlisting the become the intensely influential role played by support of tribes as well as battalions from the clergy and right-wing politicians in Pakistani religious and political parties.xiv It also replicated society and governance. This has also inspired this strategy in 1971 during the war with India and provided a precedent for the militant groups that led to the split of Pakistan and the creation of that exist in Pakistan today.ix Bangladesh. new america foundation page 3 of anti-India militant groups in Kashmir. “There The Pakistani military and intelligence services was a strong inclination inside the counter- had provided training and funneled support to terrorism community, including the State Afghan insurgent groups during the Soviet Department and the Bush Sr. White House, to invasion of Afghanistan and duplicated this put Pakistan on the list of state sponsors of strategy to the disputed territory of Kashmir in terrorism,” said analyst Bruce Riedel.xviii The the 1990s.