Vector Check: Prospects for U.S. and Pakistan Air Power Engagement
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C O R P O R A T I O N Vector Check Prospects for U.S. and Pakistan Air Power Engagement Jonah Blank, Richard S. Girven, Arzan Tarapore, Julia A. Thompson, Arthur Chan For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2107 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018937474 ISBN: 978-0-8330-9935-8 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report is based on research conducted in the project “U.S. Air Force-Pakistan Air Force Partnering Post-Operation Enduring Freedom,” sponsored by the office of the Secretary of the Air Force/International Affairs. The purpose of this project is to better define the long-term relationship between the U.S. Air Force (USAF) and the Pakistan Air Force as the drawdown from Afghanistan continues and eventually concludes; it aims to help USAF shape its engagement with its Pakistan counterpart by better understanding Pakistan’s security requirements and to examine future trends to plan for a range of potential scenarios. This report aims for broad dissemination of the project’s findings throughout USAF and the wider U.S. security policymaking community. As an examination of issues involving air power in South Asia, this study builds on RAND Corporation work, much of it conducted for USAF under RAND Project AIR FORCE, including: • Jonah Blank, Christopher Clary, and Brian Nichiporuk, Drivers of Long-Term Insecurity and Instability in Pakistan: Urbanization, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR- 644-OSD, 2014. • Seth G. Jones and C. Christine Fair, Counterinsurgency in Pakistan, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-982-RC, 2010. • Larry Hanauer and Stephanie Pezard, Security Cooperation Amidst Political Uncertainty: An Agenda for Future Research, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, WR-1052, 2014. • Andrew Scobell, Ely Ratner, and Michael Beckley, China’s Strategy Toward South and Central Asia: An Empty Fortress, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-525-AF, 2014. • Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Joe Hogler, Lianne Kennedy-Boudali, and Stephanie Pezard, Integrating the Full Range of Security Cooperation Programs into Air Force Planning: An Analytic Primer, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, TR-974-AF, 2011. • Michael J. McNerney, Assessing Security Cooperation as a Preventive Tool, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-350-A, 2014. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The iii research reported here was prepared within PAF’s Strategy and Doctrine Program, under contract FA7014-16-D-1000, as part of fiscal year 2016 project “U.S. Air Force-Pakistan Air Force Partnering Post-Operation Enduring Freedom.” Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force in a series of briefings between November 2015 and September 2016. The draft report was issued on September 30, 2016, and briefed to the sponsor on October 13, 2016. iv Contents Preface ...................................................................................................................................... iii Figures ......................................................................................................................................vii Tables ..................................................................................................................................... viii Summary ................................................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................... xvi Abbreviations.......................................................................................................................... xvii 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 1 Background ......................................................................................................................................... 1 USAF-PAF Security Cooperation Post-OEF ........................................................................................ 4 Pakistan Air Force Goals as Subset of Pakistan’s Broader Security Goals ............................................ 6 The Policy Problem ............................................................................................................................. 7 Methodology ....................................................................................................................................... 7 Purpose of This Document .................................................................................................................. 8 Organization of This Report ................................................................................................................ 9 2. Historical Context for USAF-PAF Engagement .................................................................... 11 1947 to 1979, the First Cycle of Engagement: Cold War Allies .......................................................... 13 1979 to 2001, Second Cycle of Engagement: Afghan Jihad ................................................................ 17 2001 to 2016, Third Cycle of Engagement: Uneasy OEF Allies ......................................................... 21 3. Geostrategic Context: Pakistan’s Nested Security Relationships ............................................ 25 India .................................................................................................................................................. 26 China ................................................................................................................................................ 36 Afghanistan ....................................................................................................................................... 50 Saudi Arabia ..................................................................................................................................... 54 Iran. .................................................................................................................................................. 58 Chapter Summary.............................................................................................................................. 61 4. Future Trends for USAF as the Loss Leader in the Relationship: Pathways to Success, Pitfalls to Be Avoided ......................................................................................................... 62 Scenarios of the Future U.S.-Pakistan Relationship ............................................................................ 64 The Most Likely Outcome: Combination Scenario, and a Riskier Future ............................................ 68 Implications for USAF ...................................................................................................................... 73 5. Recommendations ................................................................................................................. 77 USAF Security Cooperation and Pakistan .......................................................................................... 77 Policy-Level Recommendations ........................................................................................................ 80 Specific Recommendations................................................................................................................ 81 Closing Thoughts .............................................................................................................................. 85 v Appendix A. Pakistan Military Order of Battle: Key Elements .................................................. 87 Appendix B. Security Cooperation Basics ................................................................................