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Three powerful factors dy l Kenne

security, trade opportunities, and Pau

by

Ostpolitik—are shaping German tos

attitudes toward the Soviet bloc. —Pho at the Pivot

BY VINCENT P. GRIMES

N ONE critical issue after an- tional approach are West German O other—arms control, East- economic and military power within West trade, modernization of NATO and the German perception NATO nuclear weapons, policy to- that a historic opportunity exists to ward eastern Europe—West Ger- ease national problems. many is now exerting a and The rise of a powerhouse econo- perhaps decisive influence. my in the Federal , far from The nation of 61,000,000 seems concentrating German attention on increasingly ready to place itself at internal affairs, has fed German odds with key allies on the basic readiness to play a more prominent security issue of how to respond to international role. Soviet power. consistently After World War II, Germany lay outpaces both the US and Britain in destroyed, and the lines of occupa- supporting Soviet leader Mikhail tion became the frontiers of a divid- Gorbachev and in calling for West- ed Europe. From this prostrate con- ern military concessions. dition, the West German state has The West German Air Force's first-rate equipment includes 165 fighter/ Bonn's actions reflect a desire for risen to become a worldwide indus- ground-. This Tornado and a larger role in eastern Europe, a trial giant and the dominant eco- crew recently visited Andrews AFB, Md., region where the Kremlin faces vast nomic force on the Continent. as part of a West German and Rockwell problems and where German influ- Its Gross National Product now Corp. joint effort to develop the Tornado as the next- US Wild Weasel ence has long been a sensitive issue. exceeds $1 trillion and continues to aircraft. Even talk of a reunified Germany is expand. , once a re- back in style. cipient of US aid, now provides its The Federal Republic, in short, is own assistance to some allies. moving toward a leading role on fun- Within NATO's military assis- damental issues going to the heart of tance program, West Germany has East-West . US leadership been supporting moves by Greece, in NATO, reform in eastern Europe, Turkey, and Portugal to modernize and the future of the German nation their forces. Included are funds for are sure to be affected. Hellenic and Air Force pro- What is kindling the new asser- grams, Turkish aircraft, and Por- tiveness in West Germany's interna- tuguese Type-209 . 48 AIR FORCE Magazine / November 1989

At the heart of the is its large force of some 5,100 main battle tanks. Of these, 1,800 are of the Leopard II type. The older Leopard I numbers some 2,400. There are also 900 or so older US- made M48 tanks. While Germany's tank force is dwarfed by Soviet armor holdings, it is nevertheless larger than that used by the to over- whelm in 1940 and invade Russia in 1941. The Bundeswehr is facing some sharp peacetime challenges, the greatest of which is a demographic downturn in West Germany. With the pool of draft-age men shrinking, Bonn is experiencing growing diffi- culties finding servicemen in suffi- cient numbers. The Army also has problems retaining second-term NCOs. West Germany's Territorial Army, The multinational European program will give the a new primary combat aircraft in the late 1990s. The twin-engine, single-seat EFA will be very organized into five divisions, is in- agile and will boast advanced avionics. West Germany plans to buy 250 EFAs in the tended for rear-area duties such as late 1990s, along with other weapon systems modernizations. home defense, base-area security, and reserve training. Also under the West Germany's military achieve- Phantom reconnaissance aircraft, Territorial Army command are Ger- ment has been less spectacular but and 175 older and soon-to-be- man battalions assigned to a joint equally critical to its emergence as a replaced AlphaJet fighter/ground- Franco-German , based at power in European affairs. Today, attack planes. The swingwing Tor- BOblingen, which falls outside the highly professional German nado is the backbone of the German NATO supervision. force of 485,000 active servicemen fighter/ force. Germany's , the Bundes- and 800,000 reservists is viewed as a On land, West Germany boasts marine, has only 38,500 officers and key to NATO conventional defense the largest standing army in western sailors, including 6,800 naval avi- on the Continent. Europe, one numerically larger ators. Even so, efforts over the past This is true despite restrictions than US Army forces in Europe and two decades to increase German imposed on West German military with more main battle tanks. seapower have been largely suc- power. Under provisions of the Paris West Germany's Army, or Bun- cessful. The fleet, deploying 150 agreements of 1954, which cleared deswehr, today has 345,000 troops, ships in 1970, now operates some the way for West German rearma- 170,000 of them conscripts serving 180 vessels. The total includes ment, all forces except a Territorial active-duty terms of eighteen months. twenty-four diesel submarines and Army are under direct command of Of the total, about 266,000 are as- eighteen surface combatants. Deliv- NATO's Supreme Allied Command- signed to the committed ery of the last of eight -class er, Europe. German law bans pro- to NATO defense, 49,000 to the Ter- frigates will soon be complete. duction of nuclear, biological, or ritorial Army, and the balance to These 3,750-ton ships are armed chemical arms. various support units and headquar- with Harpoon antiship and ters. In addition, there are 710,000 NATO Sea Sparrows. German Force Lineup Army reservists. The West German Air Force, The Bundeswehr, until recently, Modest Modernization Plans 109,000 strong, comprises ten wings was organized into twelve divisions: The services are due to benefit of fighter/ground-attack aircraft, ten mechanized, one airborne, and from modest modernization pro- two wings of air defense fighters, one mountain. Long-term prob- grams. The most conspicuous, the and two wings of reconnaissance lems, however, have forced the ser- multinational European Fighter Air- aircraft. The Luftwaffe possesses vice to reorganize. This reorganiza- craft (EFA) program, will provide excellent personnel. tion, carried out under a plan known the Luftwaffe with a new primary In addition, much of its equip- as "Force Structure 2000," calls for combat aircraft in the late 1990s. ment is viewed as first-rate. In- a force of ten mechanized and two The EFA is to be a twin-engine, cluded in the German inventory are airmobile divisions, plus another single-seat design with a delta 165 relatively new Tornado fighter/ thirteen of the airmobile, and canard configuration, making it ground-attack aircraft, 160 F-4 lift infantry, and mechanized infan- very agile, and with advanced avi- Phantom interceptor and fighter/ try type. The new setup will require onics. Luftwaffe plans call for buy- ground-attack aircraft, sixty RF-4 fewer active-duty troops. ing 250 EFAs. Also on tap are sixty 50 AIR FORCE Magazine / November 1989 additional multipurpose Tornado trade ideas almost without reserva- jor politicians alike are preoccupied fighters and up to 3,000 Advanced tion. with the need to reduce this threat Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles. to German security. Gorbachev is Though it has run into develop- Three Motivations widely viewed as the best chance ment problems, the new PAH-2 at- Three factors account for mount- for and worthy of strong tack is expected to in- ing West German insistence on Western support. crease German Army capabilities striking an independent pose on this Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich substantially in the 1990s. This air- critical East-West issue. Genscher has maintained that the craft is being developed jointly with The first is a military security West must move swiftly to help France at a cost to West Germany of problem like none other. Gen. Gorbachev in his avowed effort to $4.5 billion. The Bundeswehr will Eberhard Eimler, when he was change Soviet society. In June, get 200 of the PAH-2s, which are Chief of of Germany's Air West Germany and the Soviet slated to perform many of the same Force, described the situation viv- Union pledged in an East-West doc- tasks that the US Army's new LHX idly: ument to strive for disarmament will perform. "Two-thirds of all Soviet forces and intensify cooperation. Signed Four ships of a new, all-German are stationed in or by Gorbachev and West German frigate class are about to be ordered in the western part of the USSR. Chancellor , - at a cost of $1.5 billion. Twelve There is no other part of the globe ment commits their nations to seek Type-206-class subs are being mod- where so many military bases, "a peaceful European order or a ernized to operate in high-threat wa- troops, weapon systems, and nucle- ." ters. These will be equipped with ar warheads are concentrated as at This preoccupation with the the -Atlas SLW-83 combat in- this line dividing the two power promise of peace held out by Gor- formation system, built around an blocs. The Federal Republic of Ger- bachev accounts, in part, for luke- upgraded DBQS-21D sonar, and the many extends from south to north warm German support for moderni-

DM2A3 antiship, antisubmarine tor- over 625 miles,. . . the longest com- zation of short-range nuclear mis- pedo. The Bundesmarine will pur- mon with the . siles in Germany. In April, the two chase at least twelve new, long- The average width of the Federal strongest supporters of the plan, the range, maritime-patrol ASW air- Republic of Germany from east to US and Britain, gave in to Bonn's craft, variants of the US Navy west is not more than 135 miles, a demands that NATO put off a deci- Long-Range Air ASW Capability distance any modern aircraft can sion on deploying a new, longer- Aircraft, the Lockheed P-7A. cover in less than fifteen minutes. range version of the Lance . Taking into consideration Ger- About eighty percent of our indus- Many view the step as many's economic power and formi- tries are situated in a strip no more needlessly provocative. dable defense contributions, Bonn's than 100 miles deep along the Iron Then Bonn surprised Washington allies now are demonstrating what Curtain." by calling for immediate negotia- experts say is new attention to West The West German public and ma- tions on the missiles despite prior German views on strategic affairs. For example, analysts point to slow and cautious development of SACEUR's Follow-On Forces At- tack concept for the conventional defense of . FOFA's more aggressive features have been toned down to allay German politi- cal concerns. Just as the realities of German na- tional power have kindled a new pur- posefulness in Bonn, long-standing German vulnerabilities and weak- nesses impart a new sense of urgen- cy on many issues. Today, the most obvious and by far most significant manifestation of new German assertiveness con- Bonn's reaction to Kremlin initiatives under Gorbachev. "Gor- bymania," present to some degree in all Western nations, is epidemic in the Federal Republic. While it is still possible in Washington, Lon- don, and Paris to regard the Soviet The West German team was the overall winner of Airlift Rodeo '87—a testament to leader's peace overtures skeptical- the quality of training and motivation of the Luftwaffe's 109,000 highly professional ly, many Germans have embraced personnel. Here, a German Transall C-160 taxies off after making its assault landing his arms-control, disarmament, and during the competition. AIR FORCE Magazine / November 1989 51 the region. One goal was to raise hopes in eastern Europe and defuse /VARNINO potential political explosions. The :STRI TED A EA lure of economic advantage, how- AREA WITHO T ever, is undeniable and growing UL TO E TER THI ON COMMANDE more intense. F THE IN ALLA Western leaders encourage TV A OF 1951: 50 U.S. 1AL SECU AGREEMENT OF Bonn's initiatives—up to a point. "ATUS OF F RC The concern is whether Germany, 19 JUNE perceiving national opportunities in the East, could one day find that its .ADLY FO AUTHORIZED interests conflict with those of NATO as a whole. ARN The Pull From the East The third reason for West Ger- PERRGE ET many's unprecedentedly robust • DIE S GEBIET OHNE WIDRIG support for the Soviet leader is po- FLUGPLATZ MMANDANTEN ZU litical. Over the past two decades, UTZBEREICH ESETZ, 7 DEZ 1956, Bonn's policy of promoting better ZBLATT 195 TEIL 1 SEITE 899) relations with Moscow and the East has enabled hundreds of thousands SCHOSSEN of Germans in the East to reach the West. West also has enjoyed The fate of NATO and reform in eastern Europe are sure to be affected by the Federal relative tranquility. Republic's growing role in East-West affairs. West Germany's independent stance is motivated by military security considerations, economic factors, and the "German Germans see in Gorbachev's re- Question": Can and should the two Germanies be reunited? formist attitude a possibility to achieve progress on the central and US and British calls for the Soviet that economic prospects are emerg- most sensitive "" Union to reduce its conventional ing not only in Russia but also in —how to overcome the postwar di- superiority in advance of any new east European markets. Germans vision of the German state into cap- missile negotiations. The Allies pa- are understandably loath to sacri- italist West and Communist East. pered over their dispute at the May fice their potential economic stake Few expect early reunification of NATO summit in Brussels, agreeing in East-bloc trade. the two Germanies; slow develop- to postpone the decision until 1991. West Germany, Russia's top trad- ment of greater cross-border ties is While the argument has been ing partner in the West, exports bil- viewed as the maximum change al- pushed to the back burner until after lions of dollars worth of goods to the lowable, given the concerns that a German elections next year, it each year; two-way reunified Germany would arouse all seems virtually certain to move to trade fluctuates between $7.5 billion across Europe. the forefront again. and $10 billion. Even so, exports to Even so, long-term reunification On the question of military the Soviet Union account for only a has become the subject of the most spending, West Germany once small percentage of West Ger- widespread discussion in years. again is at odds with Washington. In many's total exports. Gorbachev The Alliance's most recent policy the view of West Germans, the Sovi- has claimed that Soviet-German document, for example, restates its et threat is fading fast and will con- trade is lower than it should be, and view that true peace "will require tinue to dissipate unless Gorbachev he is seeking to expand it. that the unnatural division of Eu- is backed into a corner by a Western On a visit to Germany last June, rope, and particularly of Germany, buildup. Some experts note a grow- Gorbachev issued a strong appeal to be overcome." ing German desire for what they call German business leaders to step up In Germany recently, US Ambas- "burden-shedding," rather than investment and trade with the Sovi- sador Vernon A. Walters declared burden-sharing. That notion con- et Union. To help the process along, that the of East Germans to trasts with the US government view he signed a new accord expanding the West in recent months indicates that Soviet power has not declined guarantees to German firms operat- that the Germanies may be reunited much, if at all. ing in Russia. in the not-too-distant future. Diplo- In the "satellite" nations of east- matic observers said it marked the The Factor of Trade ern Europe, West Germany is even first time a senior diplomat spoke of The second reason that West Ger- more anxious to encourage devel- reunification as anything other than mans are more enthusiastic than oping political trends and to estab- a theoretical, long-range possibility. others about pursuing détente with lish itself as an economic force. For The sum of these factors is recog- Gorbachev is economic. several years now, Bonn has been nition, inside Germany and out, that In Germany, there is conviction promoting investments and trade in Bonn is destined to play a key role in the unfolding of East-West affairs. Vincent P Grimes is Managing Editor of National Defense Magazine. This is his At least for the next few years, the first article for AIR FORCE Magazine. nation to watch is West Germany. •

52 AIR FORCE Magazine / November 1989