USAF COUNTERPROLIFERATION CENTER CPC OUTREACH JOURNAL Maxwell AFB, Alabama Issue No. 900, 22 April 2011 Articles & Other Documents: Tokyo Electric Admits Fuel could be Melting at A Career U.S. Intelligence Officer on Al Qaeda, Nuclear Fukushima Nuke Plant Terrorism and the Nuclear Threat Pakistan's New Missile Aimed at India's 'Cold Start' News Analysis: One Year On, Headway and Hurdles for Doctrine: Experts Global Nuclear Security Mullen Launches Diatribe against ISI Arab Revolutions Don‘t Mean End for Al Qaeda Russia Says Borei Sub to Test New Missile this Year A Race to Oblivion? Russia Abandons $1B Western Aid to Weapons Time for Plan B Program FMCT and Indo-Pak Deterrence Stability – Analysis Russia to Double its Ballistic Missiles Production from 2013 Pakistani Security Experts Respond to U.S. State Department's Concern over the Security of Pakistani U.S. to Seek Agreement with Russia on Tactical Nuclear Nuclear Weapons Weapons Reduction Rogue CIA Operatives at Large UN Calls on Countries to Implement Resolution Aimed at Nuclear, Chemical, Biological Terrorism Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal. As part of USAF Counterproliferation Center’s mission to counter weapons of mass destruction through education and research, we’re providing our government and civilian community a source for timely counterproliferation information. This information includes articles, papers and other documents addressing issues pertinent to US military response options for dealing with chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats and countermeasures. It’s our hope this information resource will help enhance your counterproliferation issue awareness. Established in 1998, the USAF/CPC provides education and research to present and future leaders of the Air Force, as well as to members of other branches of the armed services and Department of Defense. Our purpose is to help those agencies better prepare to counter the threat from weapons of mass destruction. Please feel free to visit our web site at http://cpc.au.af.mil/ for in-depth information and specific points of contact. The following articles, papers or documents do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or other US government agencies. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved. Mainichi Daily News – Japan April 21, 2011 Tokyo Electric Admits Fuel could be Melting at Fukushima Nuke Plant OKYO (Kyodo) -- An official at Tokyo Electric Power Co., the operator of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, admitted Wednesday that fuel of the plant's No. 1 reactor could be melting. At a press conference, TEPCO official Junichi Matsumoto said, ''I'm not saying with certainty that (the fuel) has never melted,'' while noting that the utility has not been able to confirm the condition of the reactor's core. Describing the possible meltdown, Matsumoto said it can be compared to a state in which molten fuel accumulates like lava, or a state in which fuel rods get exposed after their tubes were broken. TEPCO considers such states as a meltdown, he said. Asked whether the fuel at the No. 1 reactor is ''melting'' or ''being damaged,'' Matsumoto said TEPCO does not plan to define such conditions in haste. The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency under the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has already reported its own estimate to the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan, saying a serious impairment has occurred after pellets, which constitute nuclear fuel, have melted inside the reactor. http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110421p2g00m0dm044000c.html (Return to Articles and Documents List) Economic Times – India Pakistan's New Missile Aimed at India's 'Cold Start' Doctrine: Experts Press Trust of India (PTI) 20 April 2011 ISLAMABAD: Pakistan's new short-range nuclear-capable Hatf-9 missile is primarily aimed at deterring India's purported Cold Start military doctrine that envisages quick thrusts by small integrated battle groups in the event of hostilities, experts and analysts here have claimed. The Hatf-9 or Nasr, described as a missile with a range of 60 km and designed to carry "nuclear warheads of appropriate yield with high accuracy", was tested for the first time at an undisclosed location yesterday. The missile will be deployed with a mobile multi-barrel launch system that has "shoot and scoot attributes", or the ability to fire at a target and immediately relocate to another position to avoid enemy counter-fire. The new system is primarily aimed at deterring India's purported Cold Start doctrine, under which the Indian army has allegedly created integrated battle groups comprising infantry and mechanised elements that could be quickly mobilised and used for launching rapid thrusts into Pakistani territory in the event of hostilities, according to an analyst who did not want to be named. The Indian army has always denied existence of any such doctrine. The Hatf-9 missile system is a tactical nuclear weapons and "low-yield battlefield deterrent" capable of inflicting damage on mechanised forces such as armed brigades and divisions, military sources told The Express Tribune newspaper. With the development of the Hatf-9's shoot and scoot capability, "Indian planners will now be deterred from considering options of limited war", the military sources said. The Pakistani military had formulated its "new war fighting concept" in response to India's purported Cold Start doctrine, the Dawn newspaper quoted unnamed sources as saying. The development of the Hatf-9 is also being seen as a major achievement in terms of miniaturisation of nuclear warheads, the daily reported. Another analyst, who did not want to be named, told PTI that weapons like the Hatf-9 missile will limit the space for "limited war under a nuclear umbrella". However, the analyst noted that the military may have to use such a system within Pakistani territory in the event of an Indian thrust and this could have adverse consequences, such as nuclear fallout or the radiation hazard from an atomic blast. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/pakistans-new-missile-aimed-at-indias-cold-start- doctrine-experts/articleshow/8037902.cms (Return to Articles and Documents List) Dawn.com – Pakistan Mullen Launches Diatribe against ISI By Baqir Sajjad Syed, From the Newspaper April 21, 2011 ISLAMABAD, April 20: The US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, Admiral Michael Mullen, was in a mood to name and shame on Wednesday. Without mincing his words, he made it clear that ISI‘s continued links with the Haqqani network were at the core of Pakistan‘s problematic relations with the United States. He said ISI‘s relationship with the network was unacceptable to the American leadership.―The ISI has a rich history of how they operated in this part of the world, to protect their own country; I understand that some of the aspects of that we strongly disagree with and that is something that we continue to address.‖ The Haqqani network had fuelled the Afghan insurgency by supporting, training and funding fighters who were killing American and coalition troops in Afghanistan, said the admiral, who views himself as a soldier-statesman. Though the Haqqani network‘s presence in the tribal areas and the army‘s reluctance to go after them has been a sore point in Islamabad-Washington relations for some time now, Admiral Mullen‘s words indicate a hardening of the American stance. Rarely in the past have American officials been this open and categorical about links between the ISI and the network. It is also noteworthy that Michael Mullen did not just press for military action against the militants in North Waziristan, but also said that ISI‘s links with the Haqqanis were unacceptable. It is pertinent to mention here that the Pakistan Army and the ISI have repeatedly denied these allegations and have asked for evidence in support of such charges. ―It is fairly well known that ISI had a relationship with the Haqqani network and addressing the Haqqani network from my perspective is critical to the solution set in Afghanistan. … that‘s at the core — it‘s not the only thing — but that‘s at the core that I think is the most difficult part of the relationship,‖ Admiral Mullen, who is quite often criticised for being soft on the Pakistan military, said in an interview with Dawn. Though President Obama‘s top military officer was in Pakistan for discussions with the military leadership on tensions between the two countries that are said to have virtually put the entire relationship on hold, it was unclear what prompted him to reproach the ISI this openly. His talks with Pakistani army commanders, which were to be held on Wednesday night, are to be followed by crucial talks between Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir and American officials in Washington on Thursday. However, the American admiral‘s blunt talk about the ISI and the Haqqanis made it clear that the rounds of talks in Pakistan and in Washington would hardly be a smooth affair. He also made it clear that the Americans were not willing to yield on other issues either, which media reports have indicated that the Pakistan military is concerned about. He indicated that there would be probably no reduction in CIA‘s footprint in Pakistan or in the drone attacks, which are mostly aimed at North Waziristan, the base of the Haqqanis, until the ISI dissociated itself from the Haqqanis. Admiral Mullen said: ―I have a sacred obligation to do all I can to make sure that‖ the network is no longer able to support insurgents in Afghanistan. The Americans consider the Haqqani network and its role in the insurgency in Afghanistan as the most difficult challenge in the fight against the militants there.