Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: a Real-Time Review of Country Measures
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Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: A Real-Time Review of Country Measures “Living paper” version 14 (December 11, 2020) Ugo Gentilini, Mohamed Almenfi, and Pamela Dale This review present preliminary findings and should be interpreted with caution. An accompanying online Excel file includes all underlying data used for this paper. This version benefited enormously from contributions by Aysenur Acar, Hanan Ahli, Nazanin Akhgar, Haleem Hassan Kashkol Al-Kazali, Amel Allahoum, Andrew Allieu, Sulaiman Al Maazmi, Noora Al Qassi, Elena Andreeva, Colin Andrews, Edward Archibald, Temilade Aromolaran, Jehan Arulpragasam, Angela Elzir Assy, Ashiq Aziz, Indra Baatarkhuu, Reena Badiani-Magnusson, Yusuf Bafozoda, Sarah Bailey, Paul Bance, Anna Baranova, Mehdi Barouni, Roland Berenger Berehoudougou, Martina Bergthaller, Anush Bezhanyan, Sharon Corinne Benzoni, Mira Bierbaum, Gaston Mariano Blanco, Mark Blecher, Christian Bodewig, , Stefanie Brodmann, Lucia Solbes Castro, Hugo Brousset Chaman, Dimitriy Bychkov, Yoonyoung Cho, Tungalag Chuluun, Francesca Ciardi, Emmanuelle Collet, Sarah Coll-Black, Facundo Cuevas, Matthew Cummins, Pamela Dale, James Damon, Louise Moreira Daniel, Marie-Christina Dankmeyer, Benedicte Leroy De La Briere, Gustavo Demarco, Anastasiya Denisova, Malin Linnea Sofia Ed, Randa El-Rashidi, Gerardo Escaroz, Fatou Fall, Maliha Fanning, Olesia Feoktistova, Katharina Maria Fietz, Gabrielle Fox, Nicholas Freeland, Luis Frota, Carlos Galian, Jordi Jose Gallego-Ayala, Maria Concepcion Steta Gandara, Elena Glinskaya, Elisaveta Gouretskaia, Rebekka Grun, Sabina Guliyeva, Sibusiso Gumbi, Melis Guven, Courtney Hallink, Mahdi Halmi, Siddharth Hari, Lisa Hannigan, Gonzalo Javier Reyes Hartley, Abu Yadetta Hateu, Alessandra Heinemann, Sayaka Iha, Himanshi Jain, Guillaume Hingel, Johannes Hoenigl, Maddalena Honorati, Armenuhi Hovakimyan, Su Su Htay, Roberto Iacono, Adina-Maria Iorganda, Kumiko Imai, Buthaina al-Iryani, Aylin Isik-Dikmelik, Marijana Jasarevic, Mustafa Kadhim Mohammed, Amjad Zafar Khan, Alex Kamurase, Sandor Karacsony, Dmitri Karasyov, Selma Kasic, Yasuhiro Kawasoe, Ayaba Gilberte Kedote, Qaiser Khan, Johannes Koettl, Julian Alexander Koschorke, Mona Korsgard, Adea Kryeziu, Francesca Lamanna, Aleksandar Lazovski, Matthieu Lefebvre, Kook Hee Lee, Phillippe George Leite, Louisa Lippi, Ana Veronica Lopez, Christina Lowe, Mattias Lundberg, Mattia Makovic, Iftikhar Malik, Alicia C. Marguerie, Jonathan Marskell, Ana Georgina Marin Espinosa, Alessandra Marini, Erica Mattellone, Shea McClanahan, Karla McEvoy, Cem Mete, Andrei Mikhnev, Natalia Millan, Emma Mistiaen, Anita Mittal, Khalid Ahmed Ali Moheyddeen, Matteo Morgandi, Harry Edmund Moroz, Emma Mercedes Monsalve Montiel, Ingrid Veronica Mujica, Mack Capehart Mulbah, Lindi Mzankomo, Martien Van Nieuwkoop, Desislava Enikova Nikolova, NIFI (Research Institute of Finance, Moscow), Nga Nguyet Nguyen, Noel Muller, Anthony Njage, Marina Novikova, Marija Novkovic, Foluke Adetola Ojelabi, Yuko Okamura, Yulia Olenik, Vitorino Mello Oliveira, María Laura Oliveri, Junko Onishi, Ian Orton, Mirey Ovadiya, Efsan Nas Ozen, Clemente Avila Para, Truman Packard, Karuna Pal, Robert Palacios, Montserrat Pallares-Miralles, Ekaterina Pankratova, Ioanna Pantelaiou, Ana Pantelic, Jasmina Papa, Clemente Avila Parra, Kenia Parsons, Nathalie Pazmino, Luca Pellerano, Remy Pigois, Ariel Pino, Juul Pinxten, Lucian Bucur Pop, Aleksandra Posarac, Nadine Poupart, Ana Prodanovic, Pamela Pozarny, Rodrigo Quintana, Mateo Enrique Prada Quintero, Lourdes M. Rivera, Nina Rosas Raffo, Amanina Binti Abdur Rahman, Zandile Portia Ratshitanga, F. Zehra Rizvi, Ruth Reyes Rodriguez, Luz Stella Rodriguez, Mba Minko Djekombe Rony, Pedro Rosas, Friederike Uta Rother, Solene Rougeaux, Monica Rubio, Mira Saidi, Manuel Salazar, Marijana Šalinović, Glayson dos Sonya Sampson, Gevorg Sargsyan Indhira Santos, Karin Schelzig, Achim Schmillen, Anita Schwarz, Sirma Demir Seker, Karin Seyfert, Maheshwor Shrestha, Ivan Shulga, Nuno Cunha Meira Simoes, Karan Singhal, Benjamin Kakule Sivasima, Charles Chilufya SJ, Andrius Skarnulis, Oleksiy A. Sluchynskyy, Danilo Smolovic, Rene Antonio Leon Solano, Tayana Charisse Oliveira de Souza, Tayllor Spadafora, Federico Spano, Maya Stern-Plaza, Victoria Strokova, Anna Sukhova, Changqing Sun, Kalilou Sylla, Claudia Zambra Taibo, Caroline Tassot, Caroline Anne Isabelle Tassot, Emil Tesliuc, Mauro Testaverde, Samman Thapa, Stefan Thewissen, Andrei Tretyak, Julieta M. Trias, Fiona Stewart, Gulsana Turusbekova, Emre Uckardesler, Silas Udahemuka, Uladzimir Valetka, Rashiel Velvarde, Fabio Veras, Andrea Vermehren, Dewen Wang, Michael Weber, Asha Williams, Penny Williams, Briana Wilson, Natalia Winder-Rossi, Gelila Woodeneh, Yuliya Yafimenka, Ruslan Yemtsov, Soonhwa Yi, Usama Zafar, Alketa Zazo, Nahla Zeitoun, Lansong Zhang, Yukun Zhu, Roman Zhukovskyi, Mustapha Ziroili, Rocco Zizzamia, and Maria Zlatareva. Special thanks go to Michal Rutkowski for his precious guidance, and Usama Zafar and Claudia Rodriguez Alas (ASPIRE) for sharing survey data. The authors are with the World Bank (Gentilini and Almenfi) and UNICEF (Dale. For more information, please contact Ugo Gentilini ([email protected]) 1 1. Introduction After nine months since this global monitoring platform was launched, social assistance, insurance and active labor market programs in response to Covid-19 continue to rise. As of December 11, a total of 215 countries or territories have planned or implemented 1,414 social protection measures (figure 1). Such level represents a 20% increase since the latest update on September 18. Figure 1. Trends in number of social protection measures and countries/territories, March-December 2020 215 212 1600 200 195 200 190 1414 181 1400 171 159 1200 151 1179 150 133 126 1024 1055 1000 937 106 870 803 800 100 752 84 685 600 564 505 45 418 400 50 Number of SP measures SP(line) measures Number of Number of countries/territories of Number (bars) 283 200 103 0 0 20. 27. 3. 10. 17. 24. 1. May 8. May 15. 22. 12. 10. 18. 11. Mar Mar April April April April May May June July Sept Dec Social assistance still accounts for most, or 62%, of global responses, with cash transfers emerging as the most widely used form of social assistance recorded in our database (figure 2). Figure 2. Composition of social protection (left) and social assistance (right) Social assistance Social Insurance Labor markets Other social assistance Cash 14% 47% 24% 53% 62% The composition of social protection varies by county income groups and regions (figure 3). Social assistance represents nearly 90% of measures in low income countries, while its less than half in high income settings; conversely, the presence of social insurance is clearly aligned with income, i.e., ranging from 8% in low- to 31% in high-income countries. Similarly, active labor market programs vary between 3 and 21% across the income spectrum. While responses in Sub-Saharan Africa mostly revolve around social assistance or safety nets (86%), these claim large shares also in South Asia (75%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (70%). Europe and 2 Central Asia is the region with the largest share of active labor market programs (20%), while North America leads on social insurance (38%). Figure 3. Composition of social protection across country income groups (left) and regions (right) Social Assistance Social Insurance Labor Markets Social Assistance Social Insurance Labor Markets 100% 100% 3% 6% 5% 4% 8% 11% 11% 14% 11% 12% 14% 90% 21% 90% 8% 18% 20% 21% 80% 19% 80% 18% 25% 38% 24% 33% 24% 70% 70% 22% 32% 31% 60% 60% 50% 50% 86% 89% 40% 40% 70% 75% 70% 30% 60% 62% 64% 62% 55% 57% 30% 48% 48% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Breaking down the broad components, since September there are 146 new social assistance measures. Cash transfers now include 429 programs in 164 countries, a program growth of 26% over the past 3 months (table 1). Separately classified are 29 social pension schemes in 24 countries, as well as 22 cash-for-work programs in 15 countries. If all of these are conflated as a single category, cash-based transfers would represent 34% of global responses. In-kind food assistance also plays a major role with 177 programs and 30 school feeding schemes om 101 and 23 countries, respectively. Exemptions, deferrals and waivers for utility payments and financial obligations (e.g., rents) are also popular measures, including 183 programs in 105 countries. Table 1. Social assistance programs N. of N. of Social assistance program measures countries Cash transfers (conditional and unconditional) 429 164 Social pensions 29 24 Sub-total (all cash-based measures) 458 158 In-kind food/voucher schemes 177 101 School feeding 30 23 Sub-total (all in-kind measures) 207 96 Utility/financial obligation support (waiver/postponement) 183 105 Cash for Work 22 15 Total SA measures 870 193 Moving to social insurance, our database includes an additional 60 measures since September, now reaching the sizable number of 346 schemes in 136 countries (table 2). Most of those interventions take the form of unemployment benefits (103 schemes), followed by paid sick leave (85) and the subsidization of social security contributions (77). Pensions and support for healthcare insurance also feature prominently with 57 and 24 measures, respectively. 3 Table 2. Social insurance programs N. of N. of Social insurance program measures countries Paid sick support 85 61 Healthcare insurance support 24 21 Pension 57 37 Social security contribution waiver/subsidy 77 61 Unemployment benefit 103 73