THE FUTURE OF FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE:
TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS
Project Report, December 2007.
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Luc van Hoof, Wageningen IMARES , Project coordinator (editor) Andy Payne, CEFAS (editor) Audun Iversen, Fiskeriforskning Chantal Cahu, Ifremer George Tserpes, HCMR John Pinnegar, CEFAS Loïc Antoine, Ifremer Maud Evrard, Marine Board Véronique Lamblin, Futuribles
This report does not necessarily reflect the view of the European Commission and in no way anticipates the Commission’s future policy in this area
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The FEUFAR Project
Background The goal of the project is to define the research required in the medium term (here taken as 10 years), to permit exploitation and farming of aquatic resources set against the context of key challenges and risks for meeting sustainability requirements. The main output of the exercise will be a publication outlining key challenges, strategic options and the research needs of capture fisheries and aquaculture in European waters and in waters in which European fleets operate under bilateral or multilateral agreements. The project is expected to contribute to the development and subsequent implementation of a European Maritime Policy and to further strengthen the European marine research area through anticipation of research needs in the field of fisheries and aquaculture.
Research Methodology Basically, the methodology consists of three steps: (i) describe the system, (ii) detect the driving forces in the system and, (iii) by constructing hypotheses about the driving forces, sketch potential scenarios for the future. These different scenarios will provide the basis for the identification of issues, from an economical, ecological, societal and managerial (governance) perspective, which may need attention or be the key challenges in future. Based on the analysis, some of the key future needs for research in capture fisheries and aquaculture will be identified.
Contributions FEUFAR will seek the opinions of appropriate stakeholders, and the analysis will consider the possible implications of gradual or catastrophic climate change, new technologies, changes in societal values and organizational structures, globalization of markets for fish and other marine products, food security and health, and changes in management practices or fishing techniques.
Stakeholder participation and dissemination of results is fully integrated into the project. An expert committee consisting of representatives of the research and funding communities will assist in providing feedback into the analysis, and stakeholder groups will be invited to formal brainstorming activities during the course of the project. One forum will set up a stakeholder network of representatives of research, industry and management areas at a regional, European and international scale. A second will take the form of an expert workshop, including a broad selection of (representatives of) research and advisory organizations across Europe. The wider audience (including Regional Advisory Council representatives, and hence representing production, processing, societal, and environmental interests) will be invited and/or consulted in order to present draft findings and to generate educated feedback.
CONTACT You can log on to our project website where you will find more information about the project, the results of the activities as they become available, and a discussion forum: www.feufar.eu
Funded by:
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Table of Contents
WORLD CONTEXT ...... 6 A1 Climate change ...... 7 A2 International agreements ...... 12 A3 Food security in the world, inc. demography ...... 19 EU REGULATION...... 25 B1 EU policies ...... 26 B2 Governance and Stakeholder Participation ...... 32 B3 Management tools...... 39 B4 National policies ...... 45 B5 Politics...... 48 SEAFOOD MARKETS AND ECONOMICS ...... 51 C1 Product diversification...... 52 C2 Processing (capabilities) ...... 54 C3 Distribution channels (value, quality, custody)...... 58 C4 Consumer choices (prices, preferences, ethics)...... 66 C5 World production of fish and fish products by region...... 69 C6 EU trade within world trade in fish and fish products...... 75 C7 COSTS AND EARNINGS OF FISHERIES ...... 79 SOCIAL DYNAMIC ...... 84 D1 Recreational fisheries ...... 85 D2 Public perception of fisheries/aquaculture (communication) ...... 89 D3 Activities in Coastal Areas (including employment for fishers in other sectors) ... 93 D4 Competing Use Of Seashore (energy, leisure activities, urbanization) ...... 97 D5 Fisherfolk attitude towards the future (including education, training, tradition and the attractiveness of the career)...... 100 D6 Social capital (skills and expertise)...... 104 ECOSYSTEMS...... 108 E1 Pollutants and contaminants (inc. nutrients)...... 109 E2 Recruitment...... 116 E3 Invasive Species ...... 120 E4 Escapement (inc. GMO, parasites)...... 126 E5 Impact of gears on habitat and organisms...... 130 PRODUCTION...... 134 F1 Marine “ingredients”, by-products, and bio prospecting...... 135 F2 Fleet structure, size and technology (including selectivity, discards)...... 141 F3 Stock Development (commercial stocks, potential commercial stocks, restocking,) ...... 148 F4 Fish feed development and availability ...... 154 F5 Aquaculture hardware technologies...... 159 F6 Species Diversification Aquaculture...... 162 F7 Breeding, selection and genome manipulation ...... 166 F8 Health of animals...... 170 F9 Resources available for catch-based aquaculture (tuna and eel ranching)...... 177 F10 Health risk of seafood...... 181 RESEARCH...... 189 G1 Sources and allocation of funding for European marine research (including data collection, short term crisis) ...... 190 G2 Organisation of European Marine Research ...... 195 G3 Access To Infrastructure...... 198 G4 Research Training And Management...... 204 G5 Communication flows (inc. IPR)...... 209
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WORLD CONTEXT
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WORLD CONTEXT
A1 Climate change
Driver Definition
Climate variability can have an enormous impact on marine ecosystems. Long-term climate change may well affect the physical, biological, and biogeochemical characteristics of oceans and coasts, modifying ecosystems and the way that they function.
Relevant Indicators
Water temperature Sea level Ocean colour NAO anomalies, ENSO, pH, salinity Frequency of storms Developments over the past 20 years
The ‘greenhouse effect’ is a natural phenomenon, but there is strong evidence that human emissions, mainly CO 2 from fossil fuel consumption and burning, has amplified and accelerated this trend.
Global air temperature has risen by about 0.8ºC over the past 100 years, as has the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (Figure 1). Warming has become more rapid over the past two decades (~0.2°C per decade) , and it has been greater on average in Europe than in the rest of the world.
Warming over land has been accompanied by an equally dramatic warming of coastal and oceanic waters (Figure 2). The ocean has absorbed more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system.
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The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a phenomenon associated with winter fluctuations in temperature, rainfall and storm occurrence over much of Europe. When the NAO is 'positive', westerly winds are stronger or more persistent, northern Europe tends to be warmer and wetter than average, and southern Europe colder and drier. When the NAO is 'negative', westerly winds are weaker or less persistent, northern Europe is colder and drier and southern Europe warmer and wetter than average.
In recent decades the winter NAO index has increased markedly, surface pressure falling over Iceland by around 7hpa over the past 30 years. Most climate models assume that the winter NAO index will continue to rise in response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. Hence, for northern Europe it is suggested that winters will become more “westerly” in nature - milder, windier and wetter.
Changes in wind speeds over ocean areas will be an important factor driving changes in extreme sea levels and increasing the risks of coastal erosion and floods. The heights of waves are dependent on wind strengths and, as with gale frequencies, wave heights are also related to the behaviour of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Direct measurements of wave heights in Europe (1960s to present) together with inferences drawn from pressure and tide gauge data (1880 to present) have indicated substantial variability in wave height, depending on season and location. Although there have been no clear trends through the 20th century, the wave climate roughened appreciably between the 1960s and the 1990s.
The amount of total water vapour in the atmosphere has increased over the global oceans by 1.3 + 0.3% from 1988 to 2003. This increase, and hence the supply of atmospheric moisture to storms, increases the intensity of precipitation events. The pattern of precipitation change is one of increases generally at higher northern latitudes and drying in the tropics and subtropics over land. In Europe there has been a significant shift in the seasonality of precipitation. Of the total amount of rain and snow falling, the proportion that falls in winter relative to summer has changed over time. Winters have been getting wetter and summers drier.
Arnell and Reynard (1996) attempted to extrapolate from climate change scenarios, to predict future river-flows. For nearly all catchments, annual river runoff was predicted to decline markedly by 2050. The percentage change in annual runoff was predicted to be greatest for catchments in the south and east (of the UK), relative to those in the humid northwest.
The relative mildness of northern European winters is, in part, attributable to warm water transported by the Gulf Stream, and its northeastward extension, the North Atlantic Drift. The Gulf Stream is driven partly by surface wind patterns and partly by differences in water density caused by spatial variations in temperature and salinity. The density-driven component is part of a larger ocean circulation, known as the “thermohaline circulation” (THC). Surface water in two areas of the north Atlantic is cooled by cold winds from the Arctic, becomes denser and sinks.
The formation of such deep water could theoretically be reduced by a decrease in the density of North Atlantic surface waters, for example through a large input of fresh water at the surface. If this occurs, we might experience a reduction, or even a shutdown of the THC, including the Gulf Stream. Dickson et al. (2002) used long-term hydrographic records to demonstrate sustained and widespread freshening of the deep ocean throughout the North Atlantic . This is in line with predictions based on the climate scenarios. When the Hadley Centre model was run with no human influences on climate, the THC exhibited no long-term trend. When greenhouse gas concentrations were increased, the strength of the THC steadily decreased, declining by about 25% by 2100. A full shut-down of the THC is not predicted by the model over the next century, although further analysis shows that one of the two deep- water formation areas – i.e. that near Labrador – does appear to cease operating.
Global-average sea level rose by about 1.5 mm per year during the 20 th century, believed to be due to a number of factors including thermal expansion of warming ocean waters and the melting of glaciers on land. Whether the faster rate of sea level rise for the period 1993–2003 reflects decadal variability or an increase in the longer-term trend is unclear. 60% of sea level
Draft 8 World Context rise is attributable to thermal expansion and 40% to ice melting. The predicted change in future sea levels will not be the same everywhere. Regional differences can be substantial.
Figure 2: Upper ocean temperature anomalies across the North Atlantic. Temperature data are presented as anomalies from the long-term mean; section and station anomalies are normalized with respect to the standard deviation, e.g. a value of +2 indicates 2 standard deviations above normal. The maps show conditions in 2005 (colour intervals are 0.5, reds are positive/warm, blues are negative/cool); the curves below show selected time series. Figure extracted from ICES Report on Ocean Climate 2005 (ICES, 2006).
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Most carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere as a result of burning fossil fuels will eventually be absorbed into the ocean. As the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere rises, more of the gas reacts with seawater to produce bicarbonate and hydrogen ions, so increasing the acidity of the surface layer. Ocean pH was around 8.2 before CO 2 emissions took off in the industrial era (CO 2 in the atmosphere amounted to around 280 parts per million [ppm]). Ocean pH is now 8.1, with an atmospheric CO 2 concentration of around 380 ppm.
Caldeira and Wickett (2003) used an ocean circulation model, together with observed atmospheric CO 2 data (1975–2000), and projected CO 2 emissions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to predict future changes in ocean acidity. They concluded that atmospheric CO 2 will exceed 1900 ppm by the year 2300, and that this could result in a pH reduction at the ocean surface to 7.4.
Observations over the past 50 years have demonstrated a marked decline in the extent of Arctic sea ice. Recent studies estimate an Arctic-wide reduction in annual average sea-ice extent of about 5–10% and a reduction in average thickness of about 10–15% over the past few decades. Meanwhile, measurements taken by submarine sonar in the central Arctic Ocean have revealed a 40% reduction in ice thickness, and climate models project an acceleration of this trend.
A recent survey published by the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) has predicted that the navigation season for the Northern Sea Route (NSR) from Eurasia to the Bering Sea, will increase from the current 20–30 days per year to 90–100 days by 2080. Opening of shipping routes and extending the navigation season could have major implications for transportation as well as for access to natural resources.
The Future According to the IPCC report in 2007:
• Projected warming in the 21st century shows scenario-independent geographical patterns similar to those observed over the past several decades. Warming is expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes, and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic. • The resilience of many ecosystems is likely (meaning 66–99% probability) to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g. flooding, drought, ocean acidification). The progressive acidification of oceans is expected to have negative impact on marine organisms (e.g. cold-water corals) and their dependent species.
For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C pe r decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected, mainly because of the slow response of the oceans.
Climate change will not only cause changes in average temperatures, but will also trigger more so-called extreme weather events. Global warming is predicted to change the frequency, intensity and duration of events, leading to more hot days, heat waves, flash floods and heavy precipitation (snow or rainfall).
The ‘return period’ for a climatic event is defined as the average elapsed time between events of a given magnitude. The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) predicts that extremely hot August temperatures, such as those experienced in 2003, whereby the average temperature was 3.4 °C above normal in Europe, may occur as often as one year in five by the 2050s. Similar changes are expected for intense precipitation events.
Most climate experts now agree that throughout the 21 st century, climate change could significantly influence the strength and seriousness of hurricanes in the western Atlantic and typhoons in the Pacific. Warmer oceans and increased moisture could intensify the showers and thunderstorms that fuel hurricanes. Consequently, although it is not clear whether there will be more or fewer hurricanes in the future than nowadays, the seriousness of the damage
Draft 10 World Context caused looks set to escalate. In August 2005, Hurricane Katrina caused devastation in and around New Orleans, Louisiana and Mississippi. Katrina is estimated to be responsible for $75 billion in damages, making it the costliest hurricane in US history. The storm is thought to have killed at least 1604 people, making it the deadliest US hurricane since 1928. Hurricanes well in excess of this magnitude may become common in future.
For many years, stories of freak or rogue waves as tall as 10-storey buildings, and responsible for the mysterious sinking of ships, were written off as fantasy. Scientists clung to statistical models stating that monstrous deviations from the normal sea state would only occur once every 1000 years, or only following major geological upheavals. However, a recent study using satellite data from the European Space Agency has confirmed that such phenomena in fact occur regularly. The study detected 10 giant waves, all 25 m high, within a three-week period. Over the past two decades more than 200 super-carriers – cargo ships >200 m long – have been lost at sea. Understanding how wave heights may change as climate warms is important.
Hypotheses (2020)
1. Main IPCC trend: The global air temperature increases by 0.4°C and se a level rises by an average of 6 cm compared to 2000.
2. Faster warming: The climate is more sensitive to the greenhouse gas concentration than previously thought (air pollutants have masked the climate response to greenhouse gases, their reduction increases warming). Global temperature increases of 0.6°C and sea level rises by 9 cm compared to 2000.
3. Fast mitigation: Energy mitigation policies in rich countries allows greenhouse gas concentration in 2015 to be at 2000 level. Global temperature increases by only 0.25°C and sea level rises by 4 to 5 cm compared to 2000.
Sources