Drivers Final Report V1
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THE FUTURE OF FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE: TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS Project Report, December 2007. Draft 1 Luc van Hoof, Wageningen IMARES , Project coordinator (editor) Andy Payne, CEFAS (editor) Audun Iversen, Fiskeriforskning Chantal Cahu, Ifremer George Tserpes, HCMR John Pinnegar, CEFAS Loïc Antoine, Ifremer Maud Evrard, Marine Board Véronique Lamblin, Futuribles This report does not necessarily reflect the view of the European Commission and in no way anticipates the Commission’s future policy in this area Draft 2 The FEUFAR Project Background The goal of the project is to define the research required in the medium term (here taken as 10 years), to permit exploitation and farming of aquatic resources set against the context of key challenges and risks for meeting sustainability requirements. The main output of the exercise will be a publication outlining key challenges, strategic options and the research needs of capture fisheries and aquaculture in European waters and in waters in which European fleets operate under bilateral or multilateral agreements. The project is expected to contribute to the development and subsequent implementation of a European Maritime Policy and to further strengthen the European marine research area through anticipation of research needs in the field of fisheries and aquaculture. Research Methodology Basically, the methodology consists of three steps: (i) describe the system, (ii) detect the driving forces in the system and, (iii) by constructing hypotheses about the driving forces, sketch potential scenarios for the future. These different scenarios will provide the basis for the identification of issues, from an economical, ecological, societal and managerial (governance) perspective, which may need attention or be the key challenges in future. Based on the analysis, some of the key future needs for research in capture fisheries and aquaculture will be identified. Contributions FEUFAR will seek the opinions of appropriate stakeholders, and the analysis will consider the possible implications of gradual or catastrophic climate change, new technologies, changes in societal values and organizational structures, globalization of markets for fish and other marine products, food security and health, and changes in management practices or fishing techniques. Stakeholder participation and dissemination of results is fully integrated into the project. An expert committee consisting of representatives of the research and funding communities will assist in providing feedback into the analysis, and stakeholder groups will be invited to formal brainstorming activities during the course of the project. One forum will set up a stakeholder network of representatives of research, industry and management areas at a regional, European and international scale. A second will take the form of an expert workshop, including a broad selection of (representatives of) research and advisory organizations across Europe. The wider audience (including Regional Advisory Council representatives, and hence representing production, processing, societal, and environmental interests) will be invited and/or consulted in order to present draft findings and to generate educated feedback. CONTACT You can log on to our project website where you will find more information about the project, the results of the activities as they become available, and a discussion forum: www.feufar.eu Funded by: Draft 3 Draft 4 Table of Contents WORLD CONTEXT .........................................................................................6 A1 Climate change ....................................................................................................... 7 A2 International agreements ...................................................................................... 12 A3 Food security in the world, inc. demography ........................................................ 19 EU REGULATION..........................................................................................25 B1 EU policies ............................................................................................................ 26 B2 Governance and Stakeholder Participation ......................................................... 32 B3 Management tools................................................................................................. 39 B4 National policies ................................................................................................... 45 B5 Politics.................................................................................................................. 48 SEAFOOD MARKETS AND ECONOMICS ...................................................51 C1 Product diversification........................................................................................... 52 C2 Processing (capabilities) ....................................................................................... 54 C3 Distribution channels (value, quality, custody)..................................................... 58 C4 Consumer choices (prices, preferences, ethics)................................................... 66 C5 World production of fish and fish products by region............................................ 69 C6 EU trade within world trade in fish and fish products............................................ 75 C7 COSTS AND EARNINGS OF FISHERIES ........................................................... 79 SOCIAL DYNAMIC ........................................................................................84 D1 Recreational fisheries ........................................................................................... 85 D2 Public perception of fisheries/aquaculture (communication) ................................ 89 D3 Activities in Coastal Areas (including employment for fishers in other sectors) ... 93 D4 Competing Use Of Seashore (energy, leisure activities, urbanization) ................ 97 D5 Fisherfolk attitude towards the future (including education, training, tradition and the attractiveness of the career)............................................................................... 100 D6 Social capital (skills and expertise)..................................................................... 104 ECOSYSTEMS............................................................................................108 E1 Pollutants and contaminants (inc. nutrients)....................................................... 109 E2 Recruitment......................................................................................................... 116 E3 Invasive Species ................................................................................................. 120 E4 Escapement (inc. GMO, parasites)..................................................................... 126 E5 Impact of gears on habitat and organisms......................................................... 130 PRODUCTION.............................................................................................134 F1 Marine “ingredients”, by-products, and bio prospecting...................................... 135 F2 Fleet structure, size and technology (including selectivity, discards).................. 141 F3 Stock Development (commercial stocks, potential commercial stocks, restocking,) .................................................................................................................................. 148 F4 Fish feed development and availability ............................................................... 154 F5 Aquaculture hardware technologies.................................................................... 159 F6 Species Diversification Aquaculture.................................................................. 162 F7 Breeding, selection and genome manipulation ................................................... 166 F8 Health of animals................................................................................................. 170 F9 Resources available for catch-based aquaculture (tuna and eel ranching)........ 177 F10 Health risk of seafood........................................................................................ 181 RESEARCH.................................................................................................189 G1 Sources and allocation of funding for European marine research (including data collection, short term crisis) ...................................................................................... 190 G2 Organisation of European Marine Research ...................................................... 195 G3 Access To Infrastructure..................................................................................... 198 G4 Research Training And Management................................................................. 204 G5 Communication flows (inc. IPR).......................................................................... 209 Draft 5 WORLD CONTEXT Draft 6 World Context WORLD CONTEXT A1 Climate change Driver Definition Climate variability can have an enormous impact on marine ecosystems. Long-term climate change may well affect the physical, biological, and biogeochemical characteristics of oceans and coasts, modifying ecosystems and the way that they function. Relevant Indicators Water temperature Sea level Ocean colour NAO anomalies, ENSO, pH, salinity Frequency of storms Developments over the past 20 years The ‘greenhouse effect’ is a natural phenomenon, but there is strong evidence that human