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SECOND NA EXECUTIVE SUMMARY S enamhi PERÚ TIONAL Scenarios Environment Ministry of ON CLIMATE CHANG for Climate COMMUNICA GEF Hidrology Service-SENAMHI National Metereologyand to 2030 TION

Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 http://www.senamhi.gob.pe PredictionNumerical Center –CPN National Meteorology andHydrology Service SENAMHI CLIMATE SCENARIOSFORPERU TO 2030 Executive Summary h GF n Codntd y h Mnsr of Ministry the by Environment ofPeru. Coordinated and by financed GEF on UNFCCC, the the Communication to Change National Climate Second the of and Adaptation Component within the framework The present publication is part of the Vulnerability Edition: SENAMHI Year: 2009 Editing/Review: Logistical andadministrative support: GIS Staff: Computational Infraestructure: Consultors: Staff: Scientific Local Coordination: STAFFTECHNICAL Wilar Gamarra Amelia Díaz Rosas Gabriela AvalosGrinia Msr. Jenny Roca Bach. Tania Sánchez Eng. Guillermo Tataje Eng. Carmen Vassallo Eng. Ever Castillo Eng. Eng. Alegre Renán Eng. Franklin Unsihuay Fis. AlanLlacza ClaraOria Ing. Avalos Grinia Ing. Acuña Delia Ing. Rosas Gabriela Ing. AmeliaDíaz Ing. Ph. D. Obregón Guillermo Rosas Eng. Gabriela

Richard Miguel or with prior consentoftheauthors.or withprior The content ofthispublicationmay bereproduced Statingthesource Printed inPerú First Issue First Edition Printing Style Digital edition Graphic Director Design ofPeru intheLegalDone Nº16098 NationalLibrary Deposit http://www.senamhi.gob.pe Telephone Jr. CahuideMaría 785Jesús –SENAMHI National Meteorology Service andHidrology Phone: (511)6116000 Av. Javier Prado Oeste1440-SanIsidro -LimaPerú Environment –MINAM Ministry http://www.minam.gob.pe : (511)6141414(central) and6141408 (CPN) : 400 2010 : January Av. #544-Int. “J” -Rimac S.R.L. : OmegaRepresentaciones yServicios Canales: Carlos Zubizarreta : HugoNegreiros Bezada : RicardoEslava Escobar : Q&PImpresores EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate Scenarios General DirectorGeneral and for Climate Change, Desertification WaterResources Vice-minister forVice-minister Strategic andNaturalResources Development Environment -MINAM Ministry for Peru Mag. FAP (ret.) Wilar Molina Gamarra Ph. D. ElizabethSilvestre Espinoza Eduardo Durand López-Hurtado General DirectorGeneral ofMeteorology MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT OF MINISTRY Eco. Gamarra Gómez Rosario Executive President SENAMHI

Eng. Amelia DíazPabló Dr. Antonio Brack Egg TO 2030 Scientific DirectorScientific SENAMHI Minister Hidrology Service-SENAMHI National Meteorologyan d

Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 Assistant: Administrator: Communications Coordinator: Coordinator: Inventories andMitigation andAdaptationVulnerability Coordinator: Coordinator:General EXECUTING UNITOF THE PROJECT

Jenny Chimayco Ortega Ruth Camayo Suárez ContrerasKelvin Orbegoso García Millán Rafael Laura Avellaneda Huamán Jorge Álvarez Lam

territory a diversity of climates and microclimates, that respond in different ways to global ways different in respond that microclimates, and climates of diversity a territory our in generates this all Range; Mountain the of presence the to due are climate with still a considerable lack of knowledge about all these facts in Peru, since uncertainties associated is there present, at occurring change climate global of impacts regional several the of spite In Background change at national level, contributing to the Millennium Development Objectives. Development change atnationallevel, to theMillennium contributing climate face to adaptation the for policies adequate most the on advise give to and country the in variability climate future and current the on knowledge improveour to allow that IPCC, the by recognized methodologies standard on based are results obtained However,level.the regional at projections future generate to used methods the in and variability,climate current on knowledge limited the of because analysis, historical the of part the in both uncertainty; of element an considers study scenarios climate regional the of step each that out point to The evaluated variables are extreme temperatures and in this study. It is important and dynamical using scenarios,statistical downscaling methodologies for (highrate emissions). theA2emissionscenarios climate global the on based 2030, to projections future of consisting part; second the and years, 40 last the in trends climate its and climate current of characteristics the first, climate: national the in of aspects Scenarios important Climate two Peru”describes of which “Generation study the of execution of task the SENAMHI given has UNDP,– Program Development Nations United the by supported Project a UNFCCC, the to Communication National Second the of framework the within Environment, of Ministry The in which itisrecognized ofgeneratingregionalAR4, information. theimportance IPCC in stated is it as study, of areas the of characteristics local the to accordance in vulnerability in specific and together with it, tofuture beand able tocurrent establish determine adaptationto measures information useful generate to allowed have projects these Environment; of Ministry the currently (CONAM), Environment the for Council National them the by out carried 2007), (PRAA, Change Climate to Adaptation for the Project Andean as Regional such regional and 2005), (PROCLIM, Pollution Air and Change Climate Managing for at developing aimed inter-institutional efforts studies, such national as some the are Program there forHowever, Strengthening time. National of Capacities periods long from observations as such areas, regions of critical high mountains country and the our Amazon, of are lagerly climate limited the by the how scarcity understand of meteorological helps that reserach The climate change.

3 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 4 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 in the world, according to the Cancun Statement (2002) recognized by the United Nations United Environment Program (UNEP). the by recognized (2002) Statement Cancun the to according world, the in Thornwaite (SENAMHI, 1988), it is also considered as one of the twelvecountries mega-diverse From the 32 existing climates in the world, Peru has 27; according to the Climate Classification of megadiverse country and Peru: amultiple-climate and the High Plateau, in the surroundings of the Titicaca Lake. Mountain : the low plateau, north of the Porculla depression; the center andhydrographic southernregions: Pacific,thePuna; Atlanticthe theand Titicaca, differentAlso the c) the zones in Sierra,mountainasa mass; andthe Amazon region, east oftheAndes Mountains, b)three main large three a) in: continental expressed masses: is the coast, between it the sea and andthe Andes Mountains; Peru the Andean of region heterogeneity geographical or country; the determines the along it locates which Mountains, Andes great the of presence the Concerning warm waters mix together off the coasts of and Lambayeque. temperatures, d) the transition zone, between the cold sea and b)the The tropicaltropical sea sea,of warm wheretemperatures, the coldc) theand ocean zone east of the Peruvian Current, The coldof warm sea of the Peruvian Current, down to theIt is worthcentral mentioning part thatof theseChile, currents of determine relatively up to fourlow sea temperatures,zones off the Peruvian coast: a) south. eventually flows further and country the of coast northern the influences permanently that Current, Niño El warm the and tropical; of instead coast the in climate desert temperate a determines that northward, flowing waters cold of Current Humboldt of Current Peruvian the characteristics: different of On this matter, the Peruvian sea is heterogeneous due to the confluence oftwo ocean currents according to domainofPeru ourConstitution, themaritime 200 miles offshore. extends that mention to important also is It Ocean. Pacific the by west the to and by bordered is it south the to , by southeast the to , by east the to Colombia, and by just America South of part underneath the western Equatorial line; it has a total area of central 1 285 215,6 km2. To the the it north is bordered in located geographically is Peru South America. in one third the and world the in country largest twentieth the as considered is Peru all ofthemconverging withagreat ofnaturalresources. variety inaterritory Basin, Amazon the in jungle tropical the and plateau Andean high or puna the region, coastal desert the in landscapes and different climates the determine that currents, PacificOcean the from which its most outstanding features are the elevations of the Andes Mountain Range and All these recognitions are mainly due to the fact that Peru has a particularly complex geography are registered inthehighlandzones, AndeanPlateau. mainlyintheHigh highest temperatures occur in the northern coast and the lower jungle. The lowest temperatures the precipitation, and temperatures extreme of variation multiannual of perspective Fromthe Characteristics ofourclimate How isourcurrent climate? the central and southern jungle show a very similar interannual variability, but with opposite with but variability, interannual similar very a show jungle southern and central the this trend,for but its incidence is minimal, and responsibleis restricted to the most intense events. areConversely, events ENSO the variability, interannual the of case the In regions. these largescale for longer that even or periods decadal at years indicates mainly precipitation 40 modulate mechanisms circulation last the in analysis average, temporal their The below significant. statistically 30% to 20 by trends) (negative decreases some shows values jungle northern the in century last the of end the 1960’sto the up from decade while averages; their over 40% and 30 between reach values region mountain northern and coast the for 2006; to 1965 from trends); (positive increases stressed some shows precipitation annual total Peru, In Precipitation andextreme temperatures trends their impacts. of because loss economical great cause that and it with associated events extreme the and (ENSO) Oscillation /Southern Niño El of occurrence the by determined mostly are variability, All the variations that the Peruvian climate shows from one year to another, known as interannual the previous quarter. to respect with region jungle and mountain the in increases slightly rainfall November, and September Between mm. 900 jungle, the in and mm 100 reaches it region mountain the in mm; 5 than lower is coast the for rainfall accumulated the where quarter, June-August the forthe except quarter, to corresponds previous the period driest the Also to same. the remain where jungle, northern inrelation territory the all in diminish significantly are that March-May rainfalls accumulated show March-May and period The level. national December-February at periods rainiest the months the for precipitation Multiple-quarterly maps01,02and03inAppendix). 3000 mm.(See to 1000 between vary values jungle the in while mm, 1000 to 50 between region mountain the in mm; 200 to 50 between values shows regionthat Northern the for except coast, the in mm 50 to 1 from ranges precipitation average multiannual of rainfall.Variation heavy is there jungle southern and northern the in and moderate is rainfall region, mountain the in or none; precipitation scarce very show coast southern and central the precipitation, Concerning

5 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 6 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 Also, the annual and seasonal trends of average minimum temperatures are mostly positive with different of intensities allover thecountry. anomalies positive generating behavior interannual its modulate events ENSO these are statistically significant in the highlands of thegeneral southern of part Peru.in The most intenseand average, in ºC/decade +0,2 of values with territory our all in (increase) values Linear trends of annual and seasonal mean maximum temperature show a prevailing of positive with highintensity. trends, where the ENSO events seem to be the dynamical source that modulates these regions less prone to the occurrence of floods and landslides. On the contrary, parts of the southern southern the of parts contrary, the On landslides. and floods of occurrence the to prone less (RX5Day), shows that the central mountain region is the five one in that precipitation through accumulated the of years amount is the becoming indicates that index the hand, other the On trends. precipitation total the the in patterns observed regionsfollowthe mountain central that and northern shows day, one in registered (Rx1day), index precipitation maximum the Similarly, Martin). (San jungle northern the of west occurs that distribution the in observed be can it as characteristics, geographical prevailing local the by influenced is index precipitation SDII The shows anincreasing trend of0,1mm/day and zones of regionthe of department while San in Martin, mountain and regionnorthern mountain ( Piura). It central western the in mm/day 0,2 - 0,1 between trend decreasing a the most homogeneous one with respect to and northern southern mountain region. It shows trend of the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII) of precipitation in the central mountain region is Among the of characteristics the extreme precipitation indices, it is mentioning worth that the Are extreme events increasing? development andthealterationheat islandsduetodeforestation, ofsoilproperties, etc. as such exists, influences other some maybe influence, anthropogenic the besides possibly It has also been analyzed that these trends in temperatures show very particular regional values; planet, whole the for AR4 IPCC theyearsbetween 1981and2005(0,18°C/decade). by estimated range the within are trends observed These in alower rate thanmaximum temperatures did. increasedtemperatures slightly trendsminimum average, intensity.mean its In on depending shows that this depends on the ENSO phenomenon phases, which alters interannual variability, temperature minimum of distribution temperatures.temporal maximum The the in observed one the than intensity more with and interannual just than oscillations larger by modulated aretemperatures these that clear quite is it and analysis present the of period the throughout Similarly, temporal variations show that the increase or decrease of this variable occur gradually values between 0,1- 0.2 ºC/ decade, except for several stations located north of the Titicaca Lake. mountain region with2to 3days/year. western-central the in as values positive significant some show places scattered some where regions small or patterns local shows it contrary, the direction to characteristics, coherentregional a with show not does trends (CDD) index days dry Consecutive the that observed is It rainy days. to this type of hydroclimatic events, because they show an increase in the number of extremely well as the mountain entireregion, northern have the potential to regionsbecome risky prone mountain region, including the highlands of and the Central western Puno region, as moderate andsevere droughts mountainregion. aswell astheSouthern 1991-92). (1982-83, of regionoccurrencefrequency Thejungle higher zoneshows a the that is it was determined that the most intense droughts appeared in the positive phase of the ENSO trend,anyshow study, not of do period the during level national Fromat droughts 1965-2006 lake’s temperature into consideration. shouldbetaken the of variability interannual and long-term the where level, regional at deeply more studied be to needs aspect matter, this this On Lake. the Titicaca of effect thermal the by affected are temperature minimum of values Apparently,the Arequipa. of highlands the and Lake Titicaca the to zones adjacent the in observed characteristics bipolarity without but, days/year; 0,6 to show (TN90p) an increase with significant values in the southern mountain region, between 0,2 index nights warm the hand, other the water.On of sources main the are caps ice the where Peru, of regions most in consumption human for resources water and affect will this phenomenon will cause an increase in the discharge and then a drastic decrease that problem for the highland regions, because it will accelerate the glacier a melting process. representsAt first, which up, warming gradually are regions higher the that indicates pattern This (increase indays withfrost). between 0,4 -0,8 days/year, while in the adjacent zones to the Titicaca Lake, the trend is positive rangingvalues Arequipa, with of highlands the frost)(decreasein dayswith negativevalues of of presence the is (TN10p), nights cold and (FD) index days frost meteorological with number days of the in trend the of characteristics outstanding most The opposite. the just is trend this where jungle, northern the for except study, present the in used stations the of most in temperaturesClimatein extremes showdecrease a days daysincrease cold an of and warm of orographic configurationofthe region. the to due possibly increased, others in and decreased rainfall of intensity the places some in daily precipitation ; but with a mean intensity quite scattered over the whole country, because rainy days; would indicate the occurrence of days with more and more accumulated amounts of of number the in increase significant statistically non a territory the of rest the in region;while besides it shows some regions with coherent trends, as it mountain is the case of the northern In addition, the rainy period index trend shows prevalence of positive values over our territory,

7 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 8 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 events, as time goes by, The Southern jungle region as well as the southern southern the mountain region have showed ofmoderate andsevere. thehighestfrequency as well as region jungle Southern The by, goes time as events, these of number the in decrease or increase either trend, no show Droughts indicators, showing somediscrepancies inmany zones. extreme of distribution spatial modulate factors regional or Local are decreasing nightsincreases. asthewarm they nights, cold Concerning years. 40 last the in increasing are days warm the decrease,pronouncedtrendtowhile a has days cold of number general,the In mountain central the region. in decreased has it while regions, mountain and coastal northern the in increased have frequencies rainfall intense and Moderate The mountainregion southern shows moderate variations. region. mountain central the in northern decreasing is and it coastal while regions; the mountain in increasing is precipitations the in intensity The atnationallevel.(CWD) periods humid the than intensity in more increasing are (CDD) periods dry The almost allthecountry. in °C/decade 0,2 to up increased have temperatures minimum and Maximum the rest oftheterritory. in patterns major mountain any without jungle, northern northern the in and decrease a coastal and regions the in increases some shows Precipitation In conclusion:In

the emission scenarios A2 scenario high level increase of CO of increase level high scenario A2 scenarios emission the are these (2007) IPCC the of (SRES) Scenarios Emission on Report Special the in defined gases, Six Global Climate Models (GCM) have been analyzed with two emission scenarios of greenhouse our climate? modelssimulateGlobal increase is similar to that of maximum temperatures. The average high the variability temperatures, showedminimum Concerning byscenarios. both the in 2050, HadCM3 of end the by ºC 2 to up and 2030, to ºC 1 to up of temperature maximum in increase average an expected is it this study indicate, in average, positive anomalies that are, warming. According to these models Concerning Peru, projections for maximum temperatures in the five global models analyzed in it showed lessdifferences inprecipitation, -1 between to 1mm/day. Peru,because over rainfall of representation the in skill better registereda patterns CSIRO and global models for South America between 1961 and 1990, showing the that the evaluated CSR/NIES, HadCM3 he when (2007), al. et Marengo by found were results Similar (15-30%). region (70%). While the HadCM3 registers a low dry bias in the Amazon region and southern mountain oftheregion; however,in mostpart show they amoistbiasorrainierinthewestern coast For South America, from the six models, the NCAR-PCM and the GFDL show a negative bias (dry) intheAndeanRegion (90%). drier All analyzed models show a dry bias in the Andean and Amazon region of Peru, and particularly information inSENAMHI, 2005): The GCMs used by IPCC and analyzed in the present study, are listed in the following table (see 2000, whilefor theyear 2100from 90%upto 250%(IPCC 2007). forthe industry the year 2030, show a consistent increase of 25 to 90% with respect and/or to the year sources energetic from gases, greenhouse of emissions the in change The increase. National InstituteforEnvironmentalStudies(NIES) Center forClimateSystemResearch(CCSR)- Canadian CenterforClimateModelingand Analysis National Centrefor Atmospheric Research Research Organization Australia’s CommonwealthScientificandIndustrial Hadley CentreforClimatePredictionandResearch Max PlanckInstitutefürMeteorology Geophysical FluidDynamicsLaboratory Center Country Acronym Model Japan/USA Canadá USA Australia England USA

NCAR CCSR/ NIES CCCma CSIRO HCCPR MPIfM GFDL 2 and the B2 scenario of low CO low of scenario B2 the and

NCAR-PCM +CCSROGCM CCSR/NIES AGCM CGCM2 CSIRO-Mk2 HADCM3 ECHAM5/OPYC3 R30 2

9 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 10 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 Concerning the mountain and jungle regions, the models do not show an agreement, there agreement, an show not do models the regions, jungle and mountain the Concerning (SST). temperature 2100. surface to 2041 period the for intensity more sea with 2007, Marengo,by foundwere results Similar of increase the with associated is that situation area, this in 15% to up of increase an showing agree, models the all coast, northern the for Only country. the in distributions different show models the all level, national at precipitation, Concerning 1982/83,butonlyintheB2scenario. Niño years, the Elduring Niño except simulated forthe El skill the HADCM3 model, that with certain detected temperatures high simulate models the of None scenarios. both in cooling towards deviation a with fluctuations, larger shows that one the is model decreases. CSIRO model The 15%. to up of increases an show models six of out three region, jungle regionthe For mountain model). (HADCM3 southern the of slope western the over 45% to up reach that prevalence, differences.of arelot shortage a with show increasestwo 15% six up models,to of out Only 20S 16S 12S 20S 16S 12S EQ EQ 8S 4S 8S 4S 84W 84W NCAR-PCM, for 2030 decade in relation to climatology from 1961-1990. Variation in percentage (%) of annual precipitations simulated by the CCCma, CCSR/NIES, CSIRO, HADCM3 models and HADCM3 CCCma 80W 80W 78W 78W 72W 72W 68W 68W 64W 64W 20S 16S 12S 20S 16S 12S EQ EQ 8S 4S 8S 4S 84W 84W CCCRNIES NCARPCM 80W 80W 78W 78W 72W 72W 68W 68W 64W 64W 20S 16S 12S 20S 16S 12S EQ EQ 8S 4S 8S 4S 84W 84W GFDL CSIRO 80W 80W 78W 78W 72W 72W 68W 68W 64W 64W -90 -75 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 to simulate in a low scale grid, the effects in the coastline, bodies of water and surface coverage alternative an downscaling dynamical or regionalization dynamical Being etc.basins, Andean, intra- regions, mountain high coast, the as: such areas us of climate the allow in changes not the know do to they Km), 500 and 300 between (normally resolution low their to due that Although GCMs allow us to projections make as how climate will be in the future, it is also true under ahighemissionscenario (A2)? How would future climate beinPeru +1,2 ºC. to up of values with (DJF) summer during jungle central low the for exceptpronounced, very occur in the and spring with values of up to +1,16 ºC.. In the central jungle variations are will show values of up to +1,6 ºC. In the southern jungle, the periods with larger variations would (SON), mainly in the jungle,northern with values of up to 2,4 ºC. In the other seasons, variations spring during occur would variations intense most the region, jungle the In ºC. +1,2 to up of In the High Plateau region, variations would not be so significant, except in autumn with values mountainregion eastern mountainregion andcentraleastern and inthenorth winter. during autumn, in region mountain eastern south the in mainly ºC +1,6 to up of seasons (JJA) winter (MAM)autumn and the regionin mountain occur wouldthe in variations important most The coast. northern top the in mainly respectively, °C, +1,6 to +1,2 from and °C +2,0 to +1,2 from values with (SON), spring and (JJA) period winter wouldthe in variations positive intense more show 2030 and 2020 to region coastal the in temperature maximum speaking, Seasonally current its to respect with °C 1,6 climatology almostallover the country: is temperature maximum for 2030 to projection Annual Regarding extreme temperatures ENSO, a climate event that modulates climate interannual variability in our country. simulationintenseof rainfall thenorthernincoast Peru, of associated thewarmtophasetheof whichwasforced bythe NCAR global model, because itwas the one that better performed the model,regional RAMS the using made wasdownscaling dynamical the study, present the In suchastopography, variables surface ofsoil, type etc. other uses model regional the Also, grid. matrix the of one the than resolution spatial better a with is, that grid, smaller a in but GCM; the to related equations ocean and atmosphere the solves a it and GCM) from a from initialization values and conditions grid the (boundary coarse “mother”model takes pattern regional a which in technique a is downscaling Dynamical in thelocalclimate canbeidentified. 11 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 12 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 increase 2ºC. reduction with respect to 2020. To 2020, in the a High Andean Plateau’sshow would 2020 temperature°C would 20-22 from area the coast, the In extension. spatial larger a cover would ºC is projectedIt that to 2030, in the jungle region, the area of minimum temperature from 22 -24 (, ofthesouthAndeansector part ). areas jungle northern (Piura, and and east of ), coastal central zone (Cerro the de Pasco, in , ) mainly and °C, 1,4 and 0,4 between climate, current to To 2030, minimum air temperatures, close to surface, would increase in the country with respect increasing trend nights, mountainregion. ofwarm mainlyinthesouthern with the projections of positive changes in minimum temperature to 2030 and with the current be a decrease, while in the mountain region it would tend to increase. This would be consistent there is not a pattern, but a regionalized behaviour; where in most part of the coast there would the most intense in the southern mountain region of the territory. With respect to warm nights, level,being national at days warm increaseof the pronouncedtrendin a Also,be therewould of Abancay andsouthofAyacucho. 1,6 °C (top northern coast, northeast of , central mountain region, , northeast to up summer in and Iquitos) of east and Martín San of (Piura,Chiclayo,northeast °C 1,2 reach would changes these spring, in Iquitos.While of northwest and Chiclayo, in mainly climate, current to respect with 2°C to up of increases substantial winter,with and autumn in At seasonal level, the largest changes to 2030, in minimum temperatures are projected to occur more significant during summer in most part of the country, while in autumn, rainfall would rainfall autumn, in while country, the of part most in summer during significant more At seasonal level, there would be some irregularities in the behaviour or rainfall, being shortages +10%and+20%. junglebetween southern and coast northern the in occur would increases important most The -10%. of jungle) (high jungle central and northern the in and -20% and -10 region,between mountain the in mostly of distribution rainfall, and spatial they the are associated in to changes its climatology.large Annual of precipitations evidence to 2030 no show shortages is there 2030 and 2020 years For Regarding rainfall current values. most in referenceits in increaseto an trend be wouldthere locations certain in only decreasing and country the of a part be would there 2030, to precipitation maximum of case the In 20% above theiraverages. + and -30 between seasons these during alternating shortages and increases some be would there distribution, spatial to respect with spring, and winter the In normal.over register values 13 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 14 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 jungle and in the central and southern mountainregionsjungle andinthecentralsouthern ofthecountry. The largest increases would occur in the coast and northern mountain, northern °C/decade). in average, (0,53 °C/decade), and of up to 1,4 ºC for minimum temperature (0,47 general, thereIn would beanincrease inmaximumtemperature of upto 1,6°C ofthePeruvianin mostpart territory. years 30 next the in decrease a show possibly would rainfall extreme Estimated mountainregion.southern and central the of part and jungle northern the in 20% than more of decreases mountain central the of region and southern jungle, part there would be no increases of more than 20% and region, mountain northern and coastal the In significant for 2030decade. very be won’t which averages; their below or over -10% and +10% between Precipitation at national level would show some increases and decreases ranging In conclusion:In

extremes, are asthey projected inthepresent technical paper. change and take preventive measures when facing the intensification of climate in the next decades, and based on these trends evaluate vulnerability to climate take would temperatures extreme and precipitation that direction the indicate approximation, an would which values, absolute the as than more trends identified the emphasizing considered be should study present the of scale, results regional the a at climate future the of projections and climate current our of evaluation of process the to inherent uncertainties are there that knowing and information, historical of availability the on limitations considering When on thisinformation. depend country our in climate determine that processes and mechanisms the on understanding our in improvement The observations. in density low a places with in number their incrementing and stations current the using records, large with stations climate of network on based information, climate Generate What shouldwe donext? 15 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 16 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 SENAMHI, 1988: Mapa de Clasificación Climática del del deMétodo Climática Perú. Clasificación de Thornthwaite. Eds. SENAMHI Mapa 1988: SENAMHI,Perú, Ambiente deBiodiversidad -Secretaría yFloresta -Brasil. 2da.Edisión. Brasilia-DF. 163pp. Marengo, J.A., 2007: Cambio climático global y sus efectos sobre la biodiversidad. Del Ministerio de Medio Eds., Press, University Cambridge UK. IPCC, 2007: Cuarto Informe de Evaluación. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Alley, R. et al. Perú, 170pp. Ávalos G., Oria C., Acuña D.,A., Cornejo A., Metzger L., FanoDíaz G., G., Carrillo M., Miguel R., PROCLIM. Eds. Rosas SENAMHI Autores: basin. river Piura 2050: to Peru in scenaríos change Climate 2005: SENAMHI, 50 pp. Bibliography Map Nº43 Map Nº27 Map Nº11 Map N°3 Map N°2 Map N°1 N° ofMap APPENDIX Variation inpercentageofprecipitationto2030 Variation ofminimumtemperatureto2030 Variation ofmaximumtemperatureto2030 Total multiannualprecipitation(mm) Multiannual averageminimumtemperature(ºC) Multiannual averagemaximumtemperature(ºC) Name ofMap APENDICES

Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 18 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030

-18°0'0" -16°0'0" -14°0'0" -12°0'0" -10°0'0" -8°0'0" -6°0'0" -4°0'0" -2°0'0" 0°0'0" SubProyecto: Proyecto: Fecha: Escala: T (°C) 28 LEYENDA 28 emperatur 28 TUMBES 8 -12 12 -16 16 -20 20 -24 24 -28 28 -32 32 -36 1/6000000 JUL/2008 PIURA a 32 Segunda ComunicaciónNacionaldeCambioClimático(SCNCC CuencasPriorizadas Generación deEscenariosCambioClimáticoaNivelNacional -80°0'0" 28 CHICLA -80°0'0" T 28 emperatura MáximaPromedioMultianual ECU YO Laboratorio deSistemasInformaciónGeográfica 24 Oficina GeneraldeEstadísticaeInformática PA OCEANO ADOR 24 TR CÍFICO 20 28 CAJ UJILL AMAR SENAMHI CHA O CA -78°0'0" 28 28 CHAPO -78°0'0" YA HU CALLA S ARAZ MO O YOB AMB 16 Mapa Nº A HU 32 12 28 ANUCO 20 y -76°0'0" 32 CERR 28 -76°0'0" ) 01 ICA 24 O DEP HU ANCA ASCO HU 0 ANCA YO VELICA 28 PUCALLP 100 -74°0'0" 24 AY -74°0'0" ACUCHO A 32 24 200 AB ANCA IQUIT Y OS 300 CUSCO COL -72°0'0" -72°0'0" AREQUIP BRASIL OMBIA 24 400 A 24 MOQUEGU 32 500 A TA CN -70°0'0" Kilómetros A 24 PUER -70°0'0" PUNO 20 16 TO MALDON 32 BOLIVIA 16 20 ADO 24 28

-68°0'0"

-12°0'0" -16°0'0" " -8°0'0 -10°0'0" " -4°0'0 -14°0'0" " -2°0'0 " -6°0'0 -18°0'0" 0°0'0" -18°0'0" -16°0'0" -14°0'0" -12°0'0" -10°0'0" -8°0'0" -6°0'0" -4°0'0" -2°0'0" 0°0'0" SubProyecto: Proyecto: Fecha: Escala: T (°C) LEYENDA emperatur 20 TUMBES -16 --12 -12 --8 -8 --4 -4 -0 0 -4 4 -8 8 -12 12 -16 16 -20 20 -24 24 -28 1/6000000 JUL/2008 PIURA a Segunda ComunicaciónNacionaldeCambioClimático(SCNCC CuencasPriorizadas Generación deEscenariosCambioClimáticoaNivel Nacional -80°0'0" 20 CHICLA -80°0'0" T emperatura MínimaPromedioMultianual 16 ECU YO Laboratorio deSistemasInformaciónGeográfica 12 Oficina GeneraldeEstadísticaeInformática PA OCEANO 12 ADOR TR CÍFICO CAJ 16 UJILL AMAR 4 SENAMHI 8 O CHA CA 20 -78°0'0" CHAPO -78°0'0" 8 4 YA CALLA HU MO S ARAZ YOB O AMB LIMA A Mapa Nº 0 16 y -76°0'0" CERR HU -76°0'0" ) 02 ANUCO O DEP ICA HU ANCA ASCO HU YO 0 ANCA VELICA PUCALLP 100 -74°0'0" AY -74°0'0" ACUCHO A 16 200 AB ANCA IQUIT 20 Y OS 300 COL -72°0'0" CUSCO -72°0'0" AREQUIP BRASIL OMBIA 400 A MOQUEGU 16 500 A TA CN -70°0'0" Kilómetros A 12 PUER -70°0'0" PUNO 8 TO MALDON 4 0 -4 BOLIVIA 0 4 -4 ADO 8 12 16

-68°0'0"

-12°0'0" -16°0'0" " -8°0'0 -10°0'0" " -4°0'0 -14°0'0" " -2°0'0 " -6°0'0 -18°0'0" 0°0'0" 19 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 20 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030

-18°0'0" -16°0'0" -14°0'0" -12°0'0" -10°0'0" -8°0'0" -6°0'0" -4°0'0" -2°0'0" 0°0'0" SubProyecto: Proyecto: Fecha: Escala: 50 100 (mm) Precipitación LEYENDA TUMBES 1/6000000 JUL/2008 0 -5 5 -10 10 -50 50 -100 100 -200 200 -500 500 -700 700 -1000 1000 -1500 1500 -2000 2000 -3000 3000 -6000 6000 -8000 PIURA Segunda ComunicaciónNacionaldeCambioClimático(SCNCC CuencasPriorizadas Generación deEscenariosCambioClimáticoaNivelNacional -80°0'0" 200 CHICLA -80°0'0" 1000 700 ECU 1000 YO 500 Precipitación T Laboratorio deSistemasInformaciónGeográfica 500 Oficina GeneraldeEstadísticaeInformática PA OCEANO ADOR 500 1000 CAJ TR 700 10 CÍFICO UJILL AMAR 5 CHA O SENAMHI CA otal Multianual 1500 -78°0'0" CHAPO -78°0'0" YA HU CALLA MO S ARAZ YOB 2000 O AMB LIMA A Mapa Nº 3000 -76°0'0" CERR HU -76°0'0" y 1000 3000 ) ANUCO 03 O DEP ICA HU ANCA 2000 ASCO HU 500 YO ANCA 0 VELICA PUCALLP 100 -74°0'0" AY -74°0'0" 1500 ACUCHO 5 A 5 200 AB ANCA IQUIT 2000 Y OS 3000 300 -72°0'0" CUSCO 500 COL -72°0'0" AREQUIP 3000 BRASIL OMBIA 400 A MOQUEGU A 5 500 TA 3000 1500 2000 CN -70°0'0" 10 Kilómetros PUER A -70°0'0" PUNO 50 TO MALDON 100 200 500 1000 700 BOLIVIA 1500 ADO 1500

-68°0'0"

-16°0'0" -18°0'0" -12°0'0" -10°0'0" " -6°0'0 " -2°0'0 " -4°0'0 0°0'0" " -8°0'0 -14°0'0" -18°0'0" -16°0'0" -14°0'0" -12°0'0" -10°0'0" -8°0'0" -6°0'0" -4°0'0" -2°0'0" SubProyecto: Proyecto: Fecha Escala 0.8 TUMBES T (°C) LEYENDA emperatur 1/6000000 JUL/2008 0.8 PIURA V -1.6 --1.2 -1.2 --0.8 -0.8 --0.4 -0.4 -0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.4 -0.8 0.8 -1.2 1.2 -1.6 1.6 -2.0 2.0 -2.4 2.4 -2.8 ariación delaT Segunda ComunicaciónNacionaldeCambioClimático(SCNCC Generación deEscenariosCambioClimáticoaNivelNacional CuencasPriorizadas -80°0'0" a CHICLA -80°0'0" ECU PA OCEANO YO 0.8 Laboratorio deSistemasInformaciónGeográfica 0.8 emperatura Máxima CÍFICO Oficina GeneraldeEstadísticaeInformática 0.4 ADOR 0.4 TR CAJ UJILL AMAR O CHA SENAMHI -78°0'0" CA CHAPO -78°0'0" 1.2 Anual paraelaño2030 YA MO S CALLA HU YOBA ARAZ MB O LIMA A Mapa Nº -76°0'0" CERR HU -76°0'0" y ) 0.8 ANUCO ICA 11 O DEP ASCO HU ANCA HU 0 ANCA 1.2 VELICA 0.4 YO PUCALLP 100 -74°0'0" AY -74°0'0" ACUCHO A 0.8 AB 200 0.8 ANCA IQUIT Y OS 300 -72°0'0" COL -72°0'0" 0.8 AREQUIP CUSCO BRASIL OMBIA 400 A MOQUEGU A 500 0.4 -70°0'0" TA Kilómetros PUER CN -70°0'0" PUNO A TO MALDON 0.4 BOLIVIA 0.4 ADO -68°0'0"

-18°0'0" -16°0'0" -14°0'0" -12°0'0" -10°0'0" -8°0'0" -6°0'0" -4°0'0" -2°0'0" 0°0'0" 21 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 22 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030

-18°0'0" -16°0'0" -14°0'0" -12°0'0" -10°0'0" -8°0'0" -6°0'0" -4°0'0" -2°0'0" SubProyecto: Proyecto: Escala: Fecha: LEYENDA T (°C) 1.2 emperatur TUMBES 1/6000000 JUL/2008 -0.8 --0.4 -0.4 -0 0 -0.4 0.4 -0.8 0.8 -1.2 1.2 -1.6 1.6 -2 2 -2.4 2.4 -2.8 PIURA V Segunda ComunicaciónNacionaldeCambioClimático(SCNCC 0.8 a ariación deT CuencasPriorizadas Generación deEscenariosCambioClimáticoaNivel Nacional 0.8 -80°0'0" CHICLA -80°0'0" 1.2 ECU PA OCEANO 0.8 YO emperatura Mínima Laboratorio deSistemasInformaciónGeográfica CÍFICO Oficina GeneraldeEstadísticaeInformática ADOR TR CAJ UJILL AMAR CHA O SENAMHI 0.8 -78°0'0" CA CHAPO -78°0'0" Anual paraelaño2030 YA CALLA MO S HU YOB 0.4 ARAZ O AMB LIMA A Mapa Nº 0.4 0.4 -76°0'0" CERR HU -76°0'0" y 1.2 ) ANUCO 27 ICA O DEP HU ANCA ASCO HU YO ANCA 0 VELICA PUCALLP 100 -74°0'0" AY -74°0'0" ACUCHO A 1.2 AB 200 ANCA IQUIT Y OS 0.8 0.8 300 -72°0'0" COL -72°0'0" CUSCO AREQUIP BRASIL OMBIA 400 MOQUEGU A A 500 TA 0.4 CN -70°0'0" Kilómetros PUER A -70°0'0" PUNO 0.4 TO MALDON BOLIVIA ADO 0.4 -68°0'0"

-18°0'0" -16°0'0" -14°0'0" -12°0'0" -10°0'0" -8°0'0" -6°0'0" -4°0'0" -2°0'0" 23 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 Executive Summary - Climate Scenarios for Peru to 2030 National Meteorology and Hidrology Service - SENAMHI - Service Hidrology and Meteorology National Av. Javier Prado Oeste 1440 - San isidro - Lima - Perú - Lima - isidro San - 1440 Oeste Prado Javier Av. Jr. Cahuide 785, Jesús María, Lima - Perú - Lima María, Jesús 785, Cahuide Jr. Ministry of Environment - MINAM - Environment of Ministry PERÚ Phone: (511) 6141414 (511) Phone: 6116000 (511) Phone: www.senamhi.gob.pe www.minam.gob.pe del Ambiente Ministerio Environment Ministry of