IAC-04-IAA.3.8.1.02 SOLAR SYSTEM EXPLORATION: A VISION FOR THE NEXT HUNDRED YEARS R. L. McNutt, Jr. Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Laurel, Maryland, USA
[email protected] ABSTRACT The current challenge of space travel is multi-tiered. It includes continuing the robotic assay of the solar system while pressing the human frontier beyond cislunar space, with Mars as an ob- vious destination. The primary challenge is propulsion. For human voyages beyond Mars (and perhaps to Mars), the refinement of nuclear fission as a power source and propulsive means will likely set the limits to optimal deep space propulsion for the foreseeable future. Costs, driven largely by access to space, continue to stall significant advances for both manned and unmanned missions. While there continues to be a hope that commercialization will lead to lower launch costs, the needed technology, initial capital investments, and markets have con- tinued to fail to materialize. Hence, initial development in deep space will likely remain govern- ment sponsored and driven by scientific goals linked to national prestige and perceived security issues. Against this backdrop, we consider linkage of scientific goals, current efforts, expecta- tions, current technical capabilities, and requirements for the detailed exploration of the solar system and consolidation of off-Earth outposts. Over the next century, distances of 50 AU could be reached by human crews but only if resources are brought to bear by international consortia. INTRODUCTION years hence, if that much3, usually – and rightly – that policy goals and technologies "Where there is no vision the people perish.” will change so radically on longer time scales – Proverbs, 29:181 that further extrapolation must be relegated to the realm of science fiction – or fantasy.