View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Research Papers in Economics This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 3: Country Studies - Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Turkey Volume Author/Editor: Jeffrey D. Sachs and Susan M. Collins, editors Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-30455-8 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/sach89-2 Conference Date: September 21-23, 1987 Publication Date: 1989 Chapter Title: Appendixes Chapter Author: Merih Celâsun, Dani Rodrik Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c9067 Chapter pages in book: (p. 768 - 796) 768 Merih Celisun and Dani Rodrik In addition, it is possible that the real interest rate consequences of the post- 1980 reforms could have been moderated had policymakers been less dogmatically attached to financial and capital account liberalization. The latter reforms have not only necessitated a reorganization of factor shares at the level of firms, but they have also complicated macroeconomic management by engendering currency substitution. The relative openness of the capital account has rendered speculative attacks and capital flight a dangerous possibility, emphasizing all the more the need for a careful balance on the fiscal front. Appendixes A. Political Chronology, 1970-87 1970 Suleyman Demirel’s Justice Party (JP) government under increasing strain as political violence grows. March 1971 The military present the president with a memoran- dum threatening a takeover. Demirel’s cabinet re- signs. Nihat Erim (Republican People’s Party, RPP) forms new government. April 1971 Martial law proclaimed in eleven provinces. April 1972 Erim resigns. May 1972 Ferit Melen forms a coalition government. Biilent Ecevit takes over from Ismet Inonu as leader of the RPP. March 1973 President Cevdet Sunay’s term expires. April 1973 Fahri Koriiturk is elected president by the Grand Na- tional Assembly, after repeated ballots fail to gener- ate enough support for the military’s favored candi- date, Faruk Gurler. Melen’s cabinet is succeeded by one formed by Naim Talu, an independent senator. September 1973 Martial law comes to an end, as the military greatly reduce their interventionism of the past two years. October 1973 General elections fail to produce a majority govern- ment, but Ecevit’s RPP emerges with a plurality of seats. January 1974 RPP forms a coalition government with the Islamist National Salvation Party (NSP) led by Necmettin Er- bakan. Ecevit becomes prime minister. 769 TurkeyIAppendix A July 1974 A coup in Cyprus led by the Cypriot National Guard prompts the Turks to land on the island. September 1974 Ecevit resigns in the hope of capitalizing on his en- hanced popularity in early elections. Other parties block early elections and Sadi Irmak leads a caretaker govern- ment . February 1975 U.S. imposes arms embargo on Turkey. March 1975 Demirel returns to power, leading a right-wing coali- tion. July 1975 Turkey takes over U.S. bases in retaliation for the arms embargo. June 1977 General elections fail to produce a majority. August 1977 After an unsuccessful try by Ecevit, Demirel forms a second right-wing,coalition government. Key minis- terial posts are given to Erbakan’s NSP and the ultra- right-wing Alpaslan Turkes’s Nationalist Action Party (NAP). Erbakan opposes vehemently any deal with the IMF. Political violence continues to grow. January 1978 Ecevit forms minority government with the support of independents and defectors from JP. April 1978 Ecevit adopts a stabilization program and signs a standby arrangement with the IMF. October 1978 U.S. arms embargo is lifted by Congress. December 1978 Political violence culminates in the most serious out- break of sectarian fighting in decades in Kahraman- mara? (southeastern Turkey). Martial law is imposed in thirteen provinces, all in the east except for Istan- bul and Ankara. June 1979 New Letter of Intent is signed with the IMF. October 1979 Ecevit’s RPP loses ground to JP in by-elections. Ecevit resigns, and Demirel forms a new government with the backing of NSP and NAP. January 1980 A package of economic measures is announced to deal with the ongoing economic crisis. April 1980 Koriitiirk’s term as president expires; Parliament is deadlocked and unable to elect a new president. June 1980 IMF approves a three-year standby arrangement for SDR 1.25 billion. July 1980 Controls over interest rates on bank credits and de- posits are lifted. 770 Merih Celasun and Dani Rodrik September 1980 The armed forces, led by General Kenan Evren, chief of the general staff, seize power in a bloodless coup. Evren becomes head of state. A new govern- ment is formed under a retired naval commander, Biilend Ulusu, but Turgut Ozal keeps his post as dep- uty prime minister for economic affairs. February 1981 Tax reform law is enacted, changing brackets and rates so as to eliminate the distortions due to infla- tion. May 1981 Daily adjustments of exchange rates are instituted. October 1981 The National Security Council (NSC) orders dissolu- tion of all political parties and confiscates their as- sets. June 1982 Turkey’s largest money broker and securities house, Banker Kastelli, collapses. Ozal resigns subsequently. November 1982 A new constitution is adopted in a referendum, and Evren is voted president. June 1983 IMF approves one-year standby agreement for SDR 225 million. November 1983 Ozal’s Motherland Party wins majority of the seats in the first parliamentary elections since the coup. December 1983 The new government liberalizes the trade regime fur- ther and eliminates many QRs. Residents and nonres- idents are allowed to open foreign exchange deposit accounts. April 1984 Existing IMF standby agreement for SDR 225 mil- lion is replaced by new one for the same amount. Ozal’s party emerges as winner in local elections. January 1985 Subsidized export credit is eliminated. The VAT comes into effect. February 1985 Turkey signs the GATT subsidy code and agrees to phase out all subsidies on exports by the end of 1989. December 1985 Martial law is lifted in Istanbul. September 1986 Party supported by ex-premier Demirel (True Path Party) shows strength in by-elections by taking a strong second place behind Ozal’s party. April 1987 Turkey applies to join the European Community. July 1987 Ozal vetoes the military’s choice for chief of general staff. 771 TurkeyIAppendix B September 1987 Referendum enables, by a very slim margin, pre- 1980 party leaders to return to political life. B. Statistical Appendix (Tables A. 1 -A.28 on pages 772-96.) Table A.l Macro Balances (current prices, billions of TL) ~~ ~ ~~ ~ ~~ ~~ ~ 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 I980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 GNP 240.8 309.8 427.1 535.8 675 872.9 1,290.7 2,199.5 4,433.2 6,553.6 8,735. I 11,551 18,375 27,715 Foreign savings .I -6.8 9.9 26.9 36.5 60.4 34.1 46.5 244. 1 230.6 187.7 410 513 525 Total resources 240.9 303 437 562.7 711.5 933.3 1,324.8 2,246 4,679.3 6.784.2 8.922.8 11,961 18,888 28,240 Invesrmenr 48.5 56.2 88.5 120.3 166.9 217.8 239 402 947.9 1,408.6 1,774.6 2,260 3,595 5,682 Fixed capital formation 46.9 59.3 76.1 107.9 153.7 210.8 279.6 449.3 863.6 1,241.4 1,646.9 2,131 3,331 5,442 a. Private 26.9 34.2 41.1 54.1 79 103 143.3 213.8 378.7 474.5 641.4 1,183 1,831 3,107 b. Public 20 25.1 35 53.8 74.7 107.8 136.3 235.5 484.9 766.9 1,005.5 948 1.501 2,333 Changes in stocks 1.6 -3.1 12.4 12.4 13.2 7 -40.6 -47.3 84.3 167.2 127.7 I29 263 240 a. Private 1.7 .3 1.4 .8 9.6 .7 -26.5 - 21 60.8 69.9 88 6 - 46 2 - 4R b. Public -.I -3.4 II 11.6 3.6 6.3 - 14.1 -26.3 23.5 97.3 39. I 175 26 1 288 Consumption 192.4 246.8 348.5 442.4 544.6 715.5 1,085.8 1.844 3,731.4 5,375.6 7,148.2 9701 15,294 22,559 a. Private 164.4 210 301.5 378.5 460 599.2 913.2 1,550 3,187.3 4,675.5 6.208.8 1,175 1,622 2,332 b. Public 28 36.8 47 63.9 84.6 116.3 172.6 294 544.1 700.1 939 4 8,526 13,672 20,227 Source: SPO. Table A.2 Macro Balances (1983 prices, billions of TL) 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 GNP 7,357 7,752.4 8325 8,987.5 9,699.4 10,076.3 10,364.9 10,323.3 10.213.2 10,636.9 11,126 11,485.2 Foreign savings 740.2 513.3 947.1 1.360.6 1,888. I 2,027.6 1,024.4 796.8 771.8 520.9 343.9 475.6 Total resources 8,097.2 8,263.7 9,272.1 10.348. I 11.587.5 12, 103.9 11,389.3 11.120.