Renewable Energy Status and Future Pitt Center for Energy Seminar John A. Swanson, Member National Academy of Engineering February 23, 2017 Introduction
• Questions: – Why is energy so important? – When is the last time you heard “Energy Shortage”? – Are electric vehicles “green”? – What is the energy efficient home of the future? Why is Energy primary?
• Energy – Can produce clean water (Reverse Osmosis, for example) • Salt water • Brackish water – Can be used to make fertilizer • Water – Irrigation and fertilizer can provide food • Food – A basic human need for a growing population Presentation Outline
• Energy Overview – leading to a renewable focus • Renewable Opportunities – Pro and Con for each • The Home of the Future • The Utility of the Future • Renewable progress to 2017 • Will not include technical details • Questions are welcome
Things to Consider for Electricity
• Generation • Transmission • Storage – Residential – Utility – Net Metering (more later) • Usage – Conservation • Balance of Generation and Usage Energy Overview
• Energy – Mobile • Gasoline, Diesel, CNG, Jet Fuel • Hybrids, Electric Vehicles, Hydrogen Fuel Cells • Biodiesel trucks (fleets) – Stationary (Electricity) • Fossil Fuels (Coal, Natural Gas, (Oil)) • Nuclear – Fission (now 20%) – Fusion • Renewables Renewable Energy
• Hydroelectric (Dams, pumped storage) – Most sites already used – Distance from load centers – Electricity available on demand • Geothermal – Power generation (deep wells) • Electricity available on demand – Residential heating/cooling • Energy storage, not energy generation • Biomass (wood, garbage) • Land Fill Gases • Waves and Currents • Wind – Land based wind farms – Off-shore wind farms • Solar – Concentrated solar power (CSP) – Photovoltaic (PV) Energy Considerations
• Conservation – LED lighting – Programmable Thermostats – Insulation – Air exchangers • Storage – Heat – Potential Energy (water, rock filled trains) – Electricity (Batteries) – Load shifting (Residential hot water) – Plug in Electric Vehicles (PEV)
Energy Overview (continued)
• Transmission – Need to balance national energy production/consumption – Major renewable generation resources are not near population centers – High Voltage lines are $1 million dollars a mile • Difficult to permit/approve, usually cross multiple states (NIMBY!) – A national grid would be a major resource (like Interstates) • Reliability, Security • Suggest burying along existing interstate highway right of way – No NIMBY issues – Already a network connecting population centers – DC based, eventually superconductors Nuclear Status
• Fission – Currently used technology – US plants are nearing end-of-life – Waste disposal still not solved – California reactor being shutdown because of renewables – Next generation is being developed (SMR) • Small Modular Reactors (replace one coal power plant) • Improved safety, security • Liquid fuels • Made in factory, delivered by truck, run underground • Argonne National Labs – South Korea • Oak Ridge National Labs – China • Fusion (“The infinite energy source for the future”) – Research at this stage – 20 years to prototype (and always will be?)
Solar Distribution in the United States Wind (Solar) Energy
• Produced by Temperature Differences • Land Based Wind Turbines – Efficient use of land (multipurpose) – Located far from consumers (great plains, Texas) • Wind doesn’t blow all the time (but often does at night) • Off Shore Wind Turbines – Larger Units – Stronger and more consistent wind – East coast is a good resource, near load centers – NIMBY is an issue Solar Electric Energy • Utility Scale (10 mW to 10 gW) – PV (Photovoltaic) ($1.60 per watt) – CSP (Concentrated Solar Power) • Community Solar (1 mW to 100 mW) – PV ($2.00 per watt) • Commercial (20 kW to 10 mW) – PV ($2.50 per watt) – Behind the meter (single customer) • Residential (2 kW to 15 kW) – PV ($3.00 per watt) – Behind the meter (single residence) • Residential Hot Water (1 kW to 2 kW)
Utility Scale Solar Power
• Photovoltaic farms (Solar fields) – Two standard configuration • Fixed mount, facing south, rigid frame • Tracking, follow sun east to west – Generates about 30% more power – Increased generation in morning and evening – Uses both direct and scattered light – Price parity with natural gas – Requires large single use land areas • Perhaps sheep or goats for foliage control • Protection for endangered species – Only provides power when sun is shining (none at night) – $1.60 per watt (but falling fast) Utility Scale PV Fields Utility Scale Solar Power
• Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) – Focus direct sun only (Southwest US) – Parabolic Troughs • Hot oil circulates in transparent pipes at focal point – Solar Towers • Circular field of heliostats follow the sun • Focus light on heat exchanged at the top of a tower • Liquid salt energy storage provides evening energy • Causes some problems for birds (“smokers”) • PV is cheaper for same area (but no storage) Parabolic Troughs Solar Towers Ivanpah Solar Electricity Generating System
Bird Hazard (“Smokers’) Traditional Utility Model
Coal Generation Natural gas Nuclear
High Voltage Transmission (500kV+)
Intermediate Voltage Distribution (15,000 V)
Domestic Voltage Consumer (240 Volts)
Generation always equal the consumer load (no storage) Traditional Electricity Customer
Distribution
Customer Load Solar Hot Water Solar PV Hot Water Concept
Best Friends Solar Hot Water
• Installed two systems Sep. 2016 • High use of laundry for animal sanctuary • Use existing electrical hot water heater • Each system – 4 320 watt panels ($934) ($0.73 per watt) – Roof mounting hardware ($420) – Maximum power point (MPP) controller ($269) – Direct wire to bottom heater in tank ($130) – Total Cost per system $1750 ($1.37 per watt) Advantages of Residential PV Solar Power • Produced at point of use – No utility network loads – No large distribution lines needed • Environment effects – No noise – No CO2 production – Reduces individual Carbon Footprint – Silicon based panels have no toxic materials • Improved United States energy independence – Zero fuel cost – Already very independent (coal, natural gas) – Natural gas rapidly replacing coal PV System Components • Solar Modules (Panels) – South facing sloped roof is best – Tilted panels on flat roof (tilt at or below latitude) – East, West have slightly lower generation (80-90%) – North is not recommended • Inverter – Converts DC (Direct Current) from panels to AC (Alternating Current) to match utility power • External Disconnect – To protect utility workers • Electric Meter – In and out measurements Swanson Roof 2013 Green Key Village Net-Zero Homes Green Key Village
• Lake Ella Road, Lady Lake, FL • 142 Net-zero houses, 3 phases • Houses computer analyzed to be “smart green” • Optimized HVAC, windows, walls, hot water • Energy generated with PV modules on roofs • Beautiful houses, beautiful location • $20,000 to $30,000 premium over standard construction • Native plants, recycled water for lawns • www.greenkeyvillage.com Temple Shalom (37.6 kW)
County Road 101, Oxford, FL Dog Admissions Building Best Friends Animal Sanctuary
80 modules, 20.4 kW, $40,000 Bright sky, no generation! Net Metering Customer
Distribution
Net Metering (bi-directional)
PV Solar Panels Customer Load What is Net Metering?
• If you are generating more than you need – Utility buys excess at current price • If you need more than you are generating – You buy from utility at current price • Eliminates the need for local storage – Batteries are expensive • Net metering common an many states, including FL – Utilities are fighting this in several states, including FL – Amendment 1 on November 2016 ballot is not solar friendly • “Behind the meter” – Priced at the meter, the highest electricity price Windstax Vertical Axis Windmill
Rated at 1.8 kW (28 mph wind speed) Wind and/or Solar Customer
Distribution
Net Metering (bi-directional) PV Solar Panels
Customer Load Wind Generation Chevy Bolt 2017 (PEV)
200 mile range (“Green only if electricity is renewable”) $35,000 18.4 kilowatt-hours of battery storage 120 kilowatt maximum discharge rate Two electric motors, one for city, one to help at higher speeds Electric Vehicle Customer
Distribution
Net Metering (bi-directional) PV Solar Panels Customer Load
Wind Generation Bi-directional?
EV Auto Residential Generation
Natural Gas Fuel 18 kW $3957 20% eff. $0.21/kWh Residential Power Components
Solar Power Utility Grid
Net Metering
Fast Charge Wind Generation EV Auto Load
Emergency Generation Passive: No controls required Residential Power Components (with storage)
Solar Power Utility Grid
Wind Generation Storage Load (Batteries)
Net-Metering Optional Aux Power Control: Look at Hybrid Auto Control Software Energy Storage Technologies
Grid Energy Storage, U.S. Dept. of Energy, December 2013 Battery Benefits • Fast Response (Grid Stability) • Bi-directional (Store or release energy) • Provides load so generators can operate at optimum (full) load – Run generator at optimum to charge batteries – Turn off generator when batteries are charged • Can store energy for long times (days) • Can supply energy while slower generators come online (gas turbines, for example), adding to grid stability A Storage Cost Projection
(to PV)
T Local Micro-Grid Power Components
Solar Power Transmission Grid Community Solar B Wind Generation u s Residences Aux Power Businesses (sufficient for Public Services critical needs) Hospitals, etc. Storage (Batteries) Modern Energy Company
Data: Weather, Loads, etc. Batteries and Coal Power Plants ultracapacitors Pumped Gas Turbines Control Storage Utility PV Solar Farms Center Interconnects
Wind Farms Controllable Loads Transmission Nuclear Power Large Scale Storage - Norway
• Norway hydro used to balance Europe wind • High Voltage DC Cables Denmark to Norway – 240 KM long – 700 mW capacity • Norway uses excess Europe wind energy – Reduces hydro production • When wind is low, increases hydro production • Not pumped storage, but this could add capacity Cost Reductions since 2008 “The Swanson Effect”
1977 price $76.67/watt $70 The Swanson effect Price of crystalline silicon PV Cells ($/watt)
(Richard Swanson, founder of SunPower Corporation)
$20 2013 price $0.74 $10
1977 2013 And the Trend Continues? Breakdown of Current Price (2015)
5 kW Price Total is $12,500
Solar Panels Inverter Racking Electrical Permits Labor Profit The Future
• The weakness of the PV systems is that the sun does not shine 24 hours • There is no storage in the basic PV system • Net-metering is a short term fix • Low cost storage (probably batteries) is the final piece – Will battery technology follow the price- performance of solar modules? Summary
• Residential/Commercial/Community/Utility PV Solar Power is growing rapidly – It has achieved cost parity with fossil fuels • Solar Hot Water also good • On shore wind is even less expensive • Off shore wind has large potential • Storage (batteries) are the final piece • Questions?