Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report
Project Number: 43356 / TA 7402
Capacity Development Technical Assistance (CDTA)
January 2012
People’s Republic of China: Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Development (Financed by the Climate Change Fund)
Prepared by:
Team Leader: Jorge Servert; Co-Team Leader: Wang Zhifeng; International Technical Expert: Diego Martinez; International Financial Expert: Zhu Li; Coordinator: Hu Jicai; National Technical Experts: Ma Chongfan, Huan Dongfeng, Lu Zhenwu, Zhang Suhua, Lin Bao, lui Huaiquan, Chen Changzheng.
Revisions:
Revision Date Comment Signatures
Originated Checked Approved by by by
ABBREVIATIONS
ADB – Asian Development Bank AEBIOM – European Biomass Association AEEG – Gas and Electric Energy Authority ARRA – American Recovery and Reinvestment Act CAPEX – Capital Expenditures CAS – Chinese academy of Sciences CHEC – China Huadian Engineering Company CO – Coordinator CNRS – Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique CRS – Power Towers or Central Receiver Systems CSIRO – Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization CSP – Concentrating Solar Thermal CSP – Concentrating Solar Power CTL – Co-Team Leader DE – Dish/engine Systems DLR – Germany's national research center for aeronautics and space DNI – Direct Normal Irradiation DSG – Direct Steam Generation EA – Environmental Analyst EEC – Energy Economist EGEC – European Geothermal Energy Council EIRF – Environmental Impact Registration Form EIS – Environmental Impact Statement ENEA – Ente Nazionale per l’Energia, l’Ambiente e le Nuove Tecnologie EPC – Engineering, Procurement and Construction EPCM – Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Management EPIA – European Photovoltaic Industry Association EREC – European Renewable Energy Council EREF – European Renewable Energies Federation ESHA – European Small Hydropower Association ESTELA – European Solar Thermal Electricity Association ESTIF – European Solar Thermal Industry Federation EUBIA – European Biomass Industry Association EU-OEA – European Ocean Energy Association EUREC – Agency - European Association of Renewable Energy Research Centers EWEA – European Wind Energy Association FA – Financial Analyst FIT – Feed In Tariff FLG – Federal Loan Guarantee GDP – Gross Domestic Product GHG – Greenhouse Gas GME – Gestore del Mercato Elettrico GW – Gigawatt ha – hectare HTF – Heat Transfer Fluid HVAC – High Voltage Alternating Current HVDC – High Voltage Direct Current IEA – International Energy Agency IRENA – International Renewable Energy Agency ISCCS – Integrated Solar Combined Cycle System ISES – International Solar Energy Society ISO – International Standard Organization ITC – Investment Tax Credit ITE – International Technical Expert (ITE) ITL – International Team Leader JEDI – Job and Economic Development Impact kWe – electric kilowatt kWh – kilowatt-hour kW – thermal kilowatt LCOE – Leveraged cost of Electricity LF – Linear Fresnel reflector system MENA – Middle East and North Africa MGP – Mercato del Giorno Prima MITC – Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit MOST – Ministry of Science and Technology MTC – Manufacturing Tax Credit MW – Megawatt MWe – Electric Megawatt MWh – Megawatt per Hour MWt – Thermal Megawatt NDRC – National Development and Reform Commission NEA – National Energy Administration NREL – National Renewable Energy Laboratory NSI – Nevada Solar One NTE – National Technical Expert OECD – Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OPEX – Operational expenditure O&M – Operation and Management costs PPA – Power Purchase Agreement PPP – Power Purchase Price PPPa – Public Private Partnership PRC – People's Republic of China PROTERMOSOLAR – Spanish association of thermo-electric industry PSA – Plataforma Solar de Almería PSI – Paul Scherrer Institute PT – Parabolic Troughs PTC – Parabolic-trough collector PV – Photovoltaic RE – Renewable Energy REC – Renewable Energy Certificate REN21 – Renewable Energy Policy network for 21st Century CNY – Renminbi R&D – Research and Development SDPC – State Development and Planning Commission SDS – Social Development Specialist SEGS – Solar Energy Generating System SEIA – Solar Energy Industries Association SERC – State Electricity Regulatory Commission S – State Economic and Trade Commission SNLA – Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque SPC – State planning commission SPM – Suspended Particle Matter SRFU – Solar Research Facilities Unit SSPS – Small Solar Power Systems SWOT – Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats TA – Technical Assistance TEIAR – Tabular environmental Impact Assessment Report TES – Thermal energy storage TGP – Treasury Grant Programs WACC – Weighted Average Cost of Capital WREN – World Renewable Energy Congress
INDEX
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (KEY FINDINGS) 10
1.1 Outputs 10 1.2 Key findings 10
2 PROJECT BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT 16
2.1 Project Background & rationale 16 2.2 Scope of the Technical Assistance 17
3 TASK 1: ROAD MAP FOR CSP DEVELOPMENT IN GANSU AND QINGHAI 20
3.1 Key Findings 20 3.2 Road map rationale 20 3.3 Background and situation analysis 20
3.3.1 The solar concentrating technologies 20 3.3.2 Worldwide current situation 24 3.3.3 People´s Republic of China (PRC) 25
3.3.3.1 People´s Republic of China energy mix 25 3.3.3.2 Gansu and Qinghai energy mix 26
3.4 Strategic analysis 26
3.4.1 SWOT 27 3.4.2 Benchmarks 28 3.4.3 Risk, mitigation and contingency 29
3.4.3.1 Risks associated to regulation 29 3.4.3.2 Risks associated to population and society 31 3.4.3.3 Risks associated to manufacturing industry 31 3.4.3.4 Risks associated to investors 33 3.4.3.5 Risks associated to weather: 35 3.4.3.6 Risks associated to plants needed supplies 36 3.4.3.7 Risks associated to grid 37
3.4.4 Barriers 38 3.4.5 Potential barriers 38
3.5 CSP deployment: electricity generation, cumulative installed capacity, value proposition & share on the national energy mix by 2040 39
3.5.1 CSP developing scenario in PRC 39 3.5.2 Business-as-Usual scenario (BAU) 43 3.5.3 Intermediate Scenario 44 3.5.4 Proactive Scenario 45 3.5.5 Deployment 2012-2017 46 3.5.6 Deployment 2017-2022 47 3.5.7 Deployment 2022-2027 47 3.5.8 Deployment 2027-2032 48 3.6 Toward competitiviness, grid parity, cost for society. 48
3.6.1 Introduction 48 3.6.2 Investment reduction 49 3.6.3 Operation and maintenance costs 50 3.6.4 Financial hypothesis 50 3.6.5 Cost for society 51
3.7 Key actions to promote and support CSP 54 3.8 Action plan 55
3.8.1 Actions for National, regional and local government 55 3.8.2 Actions for Utilities and National State Grid 58 3.8.3 Actions for financial institutions 60 3.8.4 Actions for Universities and Research Centers 60 3.8.5 Technologies and R&D 60
4 PILOT PROJECT 1 MWE DAHAN TOWER PLANT 63
4.1 Background 63 4.2 Key Findings and lessons learned 64 4.3 Pilot MW-scale project review 64
4.3.1 Background information 64 4.3.2 Project funding 64 4.3.3 Main research tasks 65 4.3.4 Stakeholders in the pilot project 65 4.3.5 Major barriers in implementation 66
4.4 1MW Dahan tower plant review 66
4.4.1 Location 66 4.4.2 System design 67 4.4.3 Equipment procurement 67 4.4.4 Stakeholders in the pilot project 67 4.4.5 Status of Dahan tower plant 68
4.5 Economic and financial analysis on 1MWe Dahan tower plant 70
4.5.1 Economic analysis 71 4.5.2 Levelized Cost of Electricity 71 4.5.3 Financial analysis 72 4.5.4 Return on Equity based on Cash Flow 72 4.5.5 Suggested power purchase price 72
4.6 Measures to promote the CSP development 72
4.6.1 Cost reduction 72 4.6.2 Political incentives 73
5 SITE SELECTION & PREFEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT FOR 50 MW DEMO CSP PLANTS IN GANSU AND QINGHAI 74
5.1 Background 74 5.2 Key Findings 74 5.3 Rationale of a CSP project in Gansu and Qinghai 75 5.4 Project sites description (Site selection rationale description) 76
5.4.1 Qualitative multi-criteria analysis 77 5.4.2 Technical Criteria 77
5.5 Socio-Economic Criteria 77
5.5.1 Environmental Criteria 78 5.5.2 Site Selection for Gansu 78 5.5.3 Site Selection for Qinghai 78 5.5.4 Gansu 79 5.5.5 Qinghai 79
5.6 Prefeasibility assessment 80
5.6.1 Technical 80 5.6.2 Economical and Financial Analysis 82
5.6.2.1 Economic Assessment 82 5.6.2.2 Financial Assessment 83
5.6.3 Social analysis 88 5.6.4 Possible social impacts 88 5.6.5 Land used 89 5.6.6 Demographic impact 89 5.6.7 Involuntary resettlement 89 5.6.8 Economic impact 89 5.6.9 Employment and income 89 5.6.10 Social acceptance issue 89 5.6.11 Environmental Impact 90 5.6.12 EIA requirements for the Project 90 5.6.13 Soil erosion 90 5.6.14 Biodiversity conservation and sustainable natural resources management 90 5.6.15 Pollution prevention and abatement 91 5.6.16 Management of hazardous materials and pesticide use 91 5.6.17 Greenhouse gas emissions 91 5.6.18 Health and safety 91 5.6.19 Induced and cumulative impacts 91 5.6.20 Physical cultural resources 92 5.6.21 Conclusions and recommendations 92 5.6.22 Risk analysis 92
5.7 Suggestions on CSP incentive policies 94
5.7.1 Tariff or electricity price set up 94 5.7.2 Supply information and promote training 94 5.7.3 Policy 94 5.7.4 New technologies 95 5.7.5 Value chain development 95 5.7.6 International cooperation 95 5.7.7 Promote the development of High Voltage Direct Current lines 95
6 ASSESSMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY 97 6.1 Background 97 6.2 Key Findings 97
6.2.1 Catalogue of capacities needed for CSP 98 6.2.2 Institution capacities needed for CSP 99 6.2.3 Assessment of institutional capacities in PRC 100
6.2.3.1 Overview of CSP development in PRC 100 6.2.3.2 Institution capacity existing in PRC 101
6.2.4 Gap Identification 109
6.3 Formulation and implementation of a capacity-strengthening program 110
6.3.1 International programs on capacity strengthening 110
6.3.1.1 Asian Development Bank: Asian Solar Energy Initiatives 110 6.3.1.2 International Energy Agency 111 6.3.1.3 The World Bank Group Program in Supporting CSP 112 6.3.1.4 DESERTEC Initiatives 113 6.3.1.5 European Commission, research and innovation program on CSP 113 6.3.1.6 National Renewable Energy Laboratory of the US Department of Energy (USDOE) 114
6.3.2 International networks related with CSP Development 116 6.3.3 Summary of national programs on capacity – strengthening 117
6.3.3.1 National Alliance for Solar Thermal Energy 117 6.3.3.2 Gansu Provincial CSP Innovation Strategy Alliance 117
6.4 Measures to enhance awareness of CSP power among stakeholders 118
6.4.1 Information dissemination 118 6.4.2 Technical and commercial operation demonstration 118 6.4.3 Encourage participation and contribution to international networks 118
7 DISSEMINATION OF KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTS TO RELEVANT PROVINCES ON LESSONS LEARNED AND CHALLENGES IN CSP POWER DEVELOPMENT 120
7.1 Scope 120 7.2 Key findings: 120 7.3 Dissemination knowledge products 120 7.4 CSP knowledge dissemination website 122 7.5 CSP knowledge dissemination seminars 123
8 CONCLUSIONS 129 9 LIST OF FIGURES 131 10 LIST OF TABLES 131 11 REFERENCES 132
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (KEY FINDINGS)
1.1 OUTPUTS
The present report is a summary of the Capacity Development Technical Assistance (CDTA), 7402-PRC, “People's Republic of China: Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Development” funded by Asian Development Bank and being the executing agency China Huadian Engineering Company.
The key outputs of the TA are:
Development of a road map for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) demonstration and deployment in Gansu and Qinghai Provinces. Implementation of a pilot MW-scale CSP plant. Identification of a priority demonstration project and prefeasibility assessment in Gansu and Qinghai Provinces. Capacity assessment and strengthening of CSP demonstration. Dissemination of knowledge products to relevant provinces on lessons learned and challenges in CSP power development.
1.2 KEY FINDINGS CSP development is feasible in People`s Republic of China (PRC), specifically in Gansu and Qinghai and it would bring benefits not only to PRC but to the global economy. From the analysis carried out, grid parity could be achieved in 2030 if proactive actions are taken.
In 2040, it is feasible that 15% of total electricity produced in PRC is supplied using CSP if appropriate actions are taken.
CSP development can be a major driving force on local economy and energy production, reaching an installed capacity of 100 GW in 2030 and 400 GW in 2040 in P.R.C and 20 GW and 50 GW installed capacity in Gansu and Qinghai respectively in the proactive scenario.
For Gansu, and Qinghai, taking into account their forecasted demand and wind energy deployment, it will be necessary to set up a high capacity transport grid to supply the demand located in the east as internal demand will not cover production. This also opens an opportunity for high energy demand companies to be established in Gansu and Qinghai.
Gansu and Qinghai have a good solar resource but not the best in PRC Nevertheless, there is access to water supply, favorable topography, grid and transport and, hence, they are suitable areas for demo projects and future development.
CSP is a stable predictable source of energy that can stabilize other renewable energy sources such as wind and solar PV. In Gansu and Qinghai, there are plans to set up wind and solar PV power plants on the order of GW. This is not feasible if no firm power is installed (such as CSP).
PRC has enough suitable land to supply more than 10 times the 2030 forecasted demand of electricity using CSP. Respectively, Gansu and Qinghai hold 5% and 14% of total PRC suitable land for CSP.
Nowadays, electricity generation costs using CSP are higher than if using fossil fuels or other sources of renewable energy; nevertheless, it has some unique features: Availability of primary resource, dispatchability and potential for cost reduction.
CSP has been proven commercially in USA and Spain, creating a good track record.
CSP development in PRC, due to its manufacturing and development capabilities, as shown in wind or solar photovoltaic (PV), should lead to a decrease on investment costs and hence on the cost of the energy produced.
However, initial support is needed to achieve momentum, creating a virtuous circle: pipe- line of projects-industry development-cost reduction. ADB capacity building and financial support is a useful tool to reach this goal.
PRC advantage in R&D capacity and new products time to the market combined with appropriate policy and planning support can speed up the introduction of new generations of more efficient CSP plants and hybrid power plants (coal, combined cycles or biomass)
To supply all the electricity demand in PRC, Gansu or Qinghai in 2040: 150,000 km2, 2,400 km2 or 1000 km2 equivalent to 1,5%, 0.5% or 0,1% of their territory (using current technology) respectively, would be needed.
Nevertheless, Gansu or Qinghai can develop a CSP industry to export energy to PRC In the present analysis, in 2040, to fulfill the proactive scenario of CSP energy production 65 TWeh and 174 TWeh would be produced in those provinces, respectively. The total land required should be 2% of suitable land, which means 0.2 % or 0.3% of total land in each province. This would generate a yearly income around CNY 30 billion and CNY 80 billion, respectively.
There are some constrains and capacity gaps in PRC: lack of knowledge of the technology, specifically among design institutes and authorities; lack of water needed for cooling and cleaning; extreme winters and dust storms, grid capacity, specific regulation and lack of indigenous developed industry. The roadmap defines actions to eliminate or reduce constrains and gaps.
A CSP power plant in Jinta, Gansu is feasible from a technical point of view, even though it faces the challenge of: low temperatures, high speed winds and lacks of indigenous developed industry; to achieve economical feasibility, a premium over fossil fuel generation price is needed.
A 50 MW power plant based on parabolic trough using thermal oil as a working fluid without energy storage and with wet cooling is proposed as demo project. This choice has been made: Balancing risks, profits, local constraints and capabilities.
The major gaps are:
Lack of a development plan for CSP. Government of PRC has published the 12th five year plan, in which renewable energy technologies, such as wind (a goal of 100 GW for 2015), solar (a goal of 15GW for 2015) are key technologies. However, no specific development plan or roadmap on CSP has been defined.
Lack of specific incentive policies targeted at CSP. PRC has issued wind power price policy, which is so called standardised power price policy for wind power project, concessional bidding process for grid connected solar PV projects and lately a feed-in-tariff for solar PV (CNY 1/kWh). There are no specific incentive policies for CSP.
Lack of experience on CSP design, construction and operation. There is no utility-scale commercial CSP project in PRC The Government of PRC has awarded a 50 MW CSP project in the Inner-Mongolia region to a Chinese company (Datang) through concession bidding. There are no established experiences on CSP design, construction and operation.
Lack of standards etc. No national standards have been developed nor issued for key components of CSP in PRC
Lack of investment confidence. For an emerging CSP industry, developers/investors are now reluctant and less confident to invest in CSP projects due to high capital cost, on the range of 1000 million CNY. Furthermore, local manufacturers for key components have not been established, and mainly rely on imported products, such as receivers. The scale of CSP projects investment is far too large for small and private enterprises in PRC to get involved.
Lack of awareness in financing institutions. PRC’s economy heavily depends on bank loans. Bank assets comprise 77% of all financial asset compared to 26% in the US. However, the banking system is still at the early business stage and lack of skills to identify the risky and profitable projects. PRC is now carrying out a banking system reform, which requires the banks to raise risk weighting for the loans in order to limit the bad debts, meanwhile, Chinese banks have very limited knowledge on the renewable energy and energy efficiency. This will increase the reluctances of capital investment to renewable energy and energy efficiency projects. Lack of awareness of CSP technology and development status in financial institutions is one of the main barriers for CSP development in PRC
The global value chain for CSP industry has been analyzed and, even though, there are companies or organizations to fulfill all the links, there is still a deficit in capacity and maturity in most of them.
Task 1: Road Map.
CSP has been proven commercially feasible in the U.S.A. and in Spain and there are relevant programs for further development in: Australia, PRC, India, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, South of Africa and America. CSP technology has large room for reduction on: investment and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs as well as improvement in performance. CSP technology is a clean, dispatchable and stable technology. CSP technology, nowadays, is not competitive with fossil fuels, hence, some kind of support is needed to push forward its development. This support can be implemented using different mechanisms: Feed-in-tariff, power bidding tariff, grants, tax holidays or duty free tax, soft loans, public private partnership. In PRC, there is a growing interest on CSP. Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Xizang and Xinjiang have a good solar resource for CSP development but all of them are far from end power users and are relatively underdeveloped. Also, all of them have a good resource of wind energy which has to be combined with a firm source of electricity such as CSP. Feed-in-tariff main lesson learned: Feed-in-tariff is a good mechanism to stimulate CSP development if combined with enough human capability but, if set too high, it can lead to an excess of expensive installed capacity with a high cost for society. PRC has developed renewable energy related legislation (grid connection, promotion, obligation to buy energy) and environmental legislation creating a frame that has been good enough to attract investment in wind, solar PV and biomass, mainly, from local investors. There is a capacity gap in some key technical and financial institutions in PRC as CSP is a new technology. Three scenarios on the evolution of total installed CSP capacity have been, proposed. These scenarios are coherent with forecasts on PRC energy demand growth and regional and world CSP forecasts. PRC has enough suitable land to supply more than 10 times the 2030 forecasted demand of electricity using CSP. Gansu and Qinghai have suitable available land for CSP. 5% and 14% of total PRC suitable land are in Gansu and Qinghai respectively.
Task 2: Pilot project 1MWe , Dahan Tower Plant.
CSP technology started to attract great attentions from media, research institutes and industry in PRC since Ministry of Sciences and Technology founded the Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IEECAS) to build a R&D and demonstration 1MW solar power tower system. With the implementation of the project, the industry chain is forming gradually. At the beginning of 2011, National Development and Reforming Commission (NDRC) announced the grid-connecting price for the Inner Mongolia 50MW parabolic trough plant through a concession bidding procedure. The first commercial CSP plant in PRC It shows that the technology and project demonstration are relevant for a new technology to be recognized and be paid attention by the government and industry. The project comprises two parts, one is R&D, and the other is demo system engineering. The R&D products are used in the demo project. There are several stakeholders in the whole project, and the funds from the Ministry of Science and Technology are allocated to each stakeholder directly, based on individual contracts. The organization leading the whole project is the Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences (which is also the owner of the demo plant) found it difficult to control the whole process of implementation. Because of an insufficient control of the funds, the delivery deadline for the R&D products is delayed beyond the construction schedule. R&D needs collaborations and trust among different research institutes, universities and industries to reach optimal achievements. Experience has shown that meeting deadlines and budget goals, and solving licensing complexity has been very difficult for the Institute. Time and effort has been consumed for the civil engineering work permission, which leads to delays on construction. Entrusting professional Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) companies instead of being done by the Institute can be a good option.
Task 3: Site selection and prefeasibility assessment for 50 MW demo CSP plants in Gansu and Qinghai.
A study has been carried out and, in the opinion of the experts, the recommended technology for the first 50 MWe CSP plant in PRC is Parabolic Trough Collector with synthetic oil as heat transfer fluid (PTC) and, if possible, a natural gas back-up boiler. Parabolic Trough is the only technology with enough commercial experience to ensure the success for this first CSP project in PRC minimizing risks. As a very clarifying data, 2300 MW out of 2339 MW planned to be built in Spain until year 2013, are PTC technology. This does not imply that future projects are not going to be developed using other technologies whose development is encouraged. As a result of the financial assessment calculations, the minimum estimated electricity cost is 1 CNY/kWh, when considering national equipments, CDM benefits and an ADB loan. Both social and environmental impact studies have been carried out for the two locations with positive results. Four candidate sites had been proposed in Gansu by the Executing Agency, and another two sites in Qinghai. Though all proposed sites are basically acceptable, a site has been identified in Gansu and another one in Qinghai .
Task 4: Assessment and strengthening of institutional capacity.
The successful global commercial development of solar PV and wind has largely profited from the effectiveness of institutions and groups, including policy makers, investors, and project developers, manufactures, and utility.
This task assesses both the international and domestic institutional capacity required for CSP deployment in PRC, recommends measures to enhance awareness of CSP power and also provides assessment of CSP value chain in PRC.
Network is an effective way for industry to share information on technology development, market initiative, policy lobbying and actions, as well as to obtain information and public awareness building. In the past decade, networks on CSP, either technical networks or industrial associations have emerged and expanded. International networks play a vital role on promoting CSP industries. The following measures to enhance awareness of CSP power among stakeholders are recommended:
Information dissemination, through workshops, conferences, publications and study tours for main stakeholders and players in CSP value chain. Establish technical and commercial operation demonstration to potential project developers and players in CSP value chain. Encourage participation and contribution to international networks on CSP. PRC is now active in international networks on solar PV, with devoted efforts and support from industries and institutions. This has proven to have very positive effect on the solar PV industry, market and policy development, Establish and enlarge scale of national networks. Although PRC has established national networks, it is still in an early stage, and government and industrial supports are needed to enlarge its scale and influence.
The CSP value chain in PRC has being integrated with participation of more players including project developers, materials producers, components manufacturers, Energy, Procurement and Construction (EPC) companies, operators, electricity distributors, investors and owners, research institutions and governments. As a result, CSP materials like steel, concrete and glass can be supplied locally by existing producers in PRC, as long as they can improve production processes to meet special requirements for CSP use. Key components like receivers and heliostats have been developed by a few domestic companies in PRC, and these products shall be industrially verified and improved. However experience on EPC and system integration is scarce in Chinese enterprises. Therefore the institutional capacity, in terms of manufacturing, R&D and financing as well as policy making, shall continue strengthening trough information dissemination, demonstration projects and formulation of specific CSP incentives and in particular international cooperation.
Task 5: Dissemination of knowledge products to relevant provinces on lessons learned and challenges in CSP development.
When properly explained and understood the long term profits, the public and relevant stakeholders are interested on CSP technologies and projects. Public dissemination can help to mitigate barriers which will emerge on the development of CSP projects. Public dissemination can help to gain supports for CSP development from different stakeholders including local people, government authorities, R&D agencies, Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs), public media, commercial banks, investors, industries, education organizations, etc. Public dissemination needs the participation and support from different stakeholders.
2 PROJECT BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT
2.1 PROJECT BACKGROUND & RATIONALE
During June 2009 the country programmed meetings in Beijing, a capacity development technical assistance (TA) for Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Development was discussed with the Government of the People's Republic of China (PRC), which led to its inclusion in the 2009 country assistance pipeline of the Asian Development Bank (ADB)1. During the TA fact finding mission in October 2009, ADB reached an understanding with the China Huadian Engineering Company (CHEC) and the government on the impact, outcome, methodology and key activities, scope, cost estimates, financing plan, consulting service´s inputs, outline terms of reference for consultants, and implementation arrangements of the TA2.
The TA has direct relevance to the country´s partnership strategy, which emphasizes environmentally sustainable development and inclusive growth (Asian Development Bank, 2008). ADB's operational strategy also highlights inclusive economic growth in an efficient, equitable, and sustainable manner. In its long-term strategic framework 2008–2020
(Strategy 2020), ADB has identified energy as a core operational sector and is achieving environmental sustainability as strategic priority (Asian Development Bank, 2008). The TA will address relatively weak solar power development in the PRC, which is an integral part of climate change mitigation strategies of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and International Energy Agency (IEA).
The TA is ADB’s first solar power intervention in the PRC, and capacity strengthening, pilot project implementation, and prefeasibility assessment of an at-scale demonstration project in a poor western province may spur CSP power development throughout this area of PRC. It will build on lower-carbon emission interventions in PRC's energy sector, such as (i) renewable energy (wind and biomass), (ii) clean coal technologies (integrated gasification combined cycle and carbon capture and storage), and (iii) energy efficiency. The TA is fully aligned with the government's priority on saving energy and protecting the environment by seeking a more balanced, diversified energy mix with a stronger emphasis on renewable energy.
PRC forecasted economic growth, even through the efforts on reducing energy intensity on GDP through efficiency improvement and changing the economical model, will lead to an energy demand growth in the next years in absolute figures. This is a challenge both for PRC and the world due to the scarcity of fossil fuels resources and the impact on environment.
Worldwide there are projects and programs to develop CSP in Europe (Spain), USA, India, MENA region, Chile, Australia, South Africa, with major multilateral organizations involvement. Currently, more than 1 GW is in operation and announced projects are over 40 GW (CSP Today, 2010). This development offers the opportunity for capital and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs reduction and a market for Chinese companies.
1 The TA first appeared in the business opportunities section of ADB's website on 5 October 2009. 2 CHEC is a state-owned enterprise and is a group of company of China Huadian, one of the five large state- owned generating companies in PRC A major challenge for renewable energy sources3 (wind and sun) is that the primary source of energy is not firm, nor predictable, hence, introducing instability into the electrical system. As electricity storage is expensive and not environmentally friendly, spinning reserve must be ready to cover lack of supply when using solar photovoltaic (PV) or wind power, this leads to a limitation in the maximum installed capacity of solar PV or wind. CSP plants are stable if heat storage is installed or CSP is hybridized with fossil fuels or biomass hence can it be used as base load or to follow demand (energy supply security).
CSP technology has been proven in commercial plants, being parabolic the dominant technology trough over 90% of power plants. But, it is still a non-mature technology in comparison with other clean energy sources. Economy of scale, risk reduction, new technologies with higher efficiencies, lower investment and lower water use shall emerge lowering the cost of the energy produced. If appropriate actions are taken and support is given, CSP will be competitive with solar PV and will reach grid parity being able to supply base and peak load for PRC demand in 2020 and grid parity in 2030.
Besides on-grid electricity, CSP can be used for industrial process heat, co-generation of heating, cooling and power, water desalination and small domestic or industrial applications.
Concentrating solar fuels (CSF, such as hydrogen and other energy carriers), in the future, could be used in transport or be transported using pipelines.
PRC has a large industrial and R&D base which can be used to develop an own industry which could supply components, system integration, financing and O&M both in PRC and abroad, similar to the one existing on wind turbines or solar PV. This opportunity could be of special interest for both Gansu and Qinghai provinces.
2.2 SCOPE OF THE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE
This report summarizes the Capacity Development Technical Assistance (CDTA), 7402- PRC, “People's Republic of China: Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Development”. It outlines: the key findings, project rationale, CSP road map, support on the 1MWe Dahan Tower, CSP demo plants in Gansu and Qinghai feasibility analysis, dissemination activities and knowledge product created.
Task 1: Development of a roadmap for CSP power demonstration and deployment in Gansu an Qinghai provinces. Task 2: Implementation of a pilot MW-scale CSP power plant. Task 3: Identification of a priority demonstration project and prefeasibility assessment in Gansu and Qinghai provinces. Task 4: Capacity assessment and strengthening of CSP power demonstration. Task 5: Dissemination of knowledge products to relevant provinces on lessons learned and challenges in CSP power development.
Within the frame of the Capacity Development Technical Assistance (CDTA), 7402-PRC, “People's Republic of China: Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Development”, the following activities have been carried out:
3 Hidropower is more predictable and in case of regulation dams it is firm and stable. Geothermal is stable. Nuclear energy is usually considered as clean energy in PRC, this source is also stable. Task 1: Review and assess existing CSP development activities worldwide and complementary activities being carried out in the PRC.
Capture lessons learned from the international experience in formulating policies, regulations, programs and targeted initiatives to promote and support CSP power activities. Undertake a comprehensive Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis for CSP development, its demonstration and future application in Gansu and Qinghai. Develop an initial outline of the CSP road map and seek stakeholder consultations. Prepare the CSP road map, and identify residual critical gaps—capacity, legal and regulatory—that may delay or prevent CSP demonstration.
Task 2: Implementation of a pilot MW-scale CSP power plant.
Review the current ongoing pilot MW-scale project under the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2006-2010). Analyze ongoing activities in the pilot project and propose technology selection, and ascertain government and stakeholder commitment for its implementation. Assess the financing need of the pilot project and type of funding needed to lower the cost barrier in its implementation. Evaluate economics of the pilot project and its likely impacts such as social, environmental, financial, and electricity tariff. Based on the pilot project planning, design, procurement, and implementation, undertake comprehensive risk assessment for CSP power, and identify measures to mitigate risks.
Task 3: Identification of a priority demonstration project and prefeasibility assessment in Gansu and Qinghai Province.
An assessment of the CSP technologies currently available and the proposal of one or several of them for the pilot project. An economic and financial study to derive key financial indicators (e.g. Financial Internal Rate of Return, Net Present Value, etc.) and to determine the expected electricity generation costs and target tariff. Environmental and social impact studies. Development of criteria to rank among several candidate sites for a 50MW project in Jinta, Gansu.
Task 4: Capacity assessment and strengthening of CSP demonstration.
Identify institutional skills and resources needed to implement the CSP power road map. Review existing capacity and readiness of planners, research institutes, implementing agencies, and regulatory agencies to support CSP power demonstration and identify gaps. Formulate, recommend, and implement a comprehensive national and international capacity-strengthening program for planners, researchers, implementing agencies, and regulators to bridge capacity gaps Identify appropriate knowledge and experts’ networks needed to support CSP power activities and a structured mechanism to facilitate them Identify measures to enhance awareness of CSP power among stakeholders, and organize appropriate national and international workshops and seminars Task 5: Dissemination of knowledge products to relevant provinces on lessons learned and challenges in CSP power development.
Preparation of dissemination knowledge products. o TA knowledge products o CSP knowledge products o Brochure editing and publishing o Brochure dissemination Establishment of knowledge products dissemination website CSP knowledge dissemination seminars o CSP knowledge dissemination seminar at Gelmud of Qinghai province o CSP knowledge dissemination seminar at Jingta of Gansu province International study trip o Aims and purpose o Participants & destinations choosing o Budget planning o Study trip planning and preparations o Trip & and visit o Study trip report preparation Preparation of pilot project Preparation of solar data measurement Host the Large-Scale Solar Power Development Workshop in June, 2011
3 TASK 1: ROAD MAP FOR CSP DEVELOPMENT IN GANSU AND QINGHAI
3.1 KEY FINDINGS
As a result of the analysis, the following key findings are:
CSP has been proven commercially feasible in the U.S.A. and in Spain and relevant programs for further development have been launched in: Australia, PRC, India, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, South of Africa and America. CSP technology has a large room for reduction in Investment and Operation and Maintenance (O&M) costs and performance improvement, as well. CSP technology is a clean, dispatchable and stable technology. CSP technology, nowadays, is not competitive with fossil fuels hence governmental and multilateral support is needed to push forward its development. This support can be implemented using different mechanisms: clear planning, R&D support, feed-in- tariff, power bidding tariff, grants, tax holidays or duty free tax, soft loans, promote public private partnership, etc. as described in the report. In PRC, there is an active interest on CSP. Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Xizang and Xinjiang have a good solar resource for CSP development but all of them are far from end power users and are relatively underdeveloped. Also, all of them have a good resource of wind energy which has to be combined with a firm source of electricity such as CSP. The main lesson learned is that feed-in-tariff combined with enough human capability is a good mechanism to stimulate CSP development, but if set too high, it can lead to an excess of installed capacity and cost for society. PRC has developed renewable energy related legislation (grid connection, promotion, obligation to buy energy) and environmental legislation creating a frame that has been good enough to attract investment in wind, solar PV and biomass, mainly, from local investors. There is a capacity gap in some key technical institutions and financial institutions in PRC as CSP is a new technology. Based on the analysis carried on PRC’s CSP development potential and on international references, a forecast on PRC’s CSP yearly installed capacity, has been made up to 2040. PRC has enough suitable land to supply more than 10 times the 2030 forecasted demand of electricity using CSP. Particularly, 5% and 14% of total PRC suitable land are in Gansu and Qinghai respectively.
3.2 ROAD MAP RATIONALE
Within the frame of Capacity Development Technical Assistance (CDTA), 7402-PRC, “People's Republic of China: Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Development”, the road map is a tool to define feasible goals and the appropriate strategies and actions to support their achievement.
Even though, as shown in this report, CSP can be a relevant source of clean energy for PRC, compared with other clean energy technologies such as solar PV, wind or biomass, there is a lack of presence in a tailor-made policies and government targets .
3.3 BACKGROUND AND SITUATION ANALYSIS
3.3.1 The solar concentrating technologies
The irradiance available for terrestrial use is only slightly higher than 1 kW.m-2, and consequently, it can only supply low temperatures to a thermal fluid due to heat losses. It is, therefore, an essential requisite to make use of optical concentration devices that enable the thermal conversion to be carried out at high solar fluxes and with relatively low heat losses.
CSP systems can use the direct solar radiation, only. This is made up of the rays reaching the Earth’s surface directly from the Sun and not of those reflected by the environment (albedo, diffuse radiation…)
Figure 1 Components of solar radiation on Earth’s surface (courtesy NREL)
In order to reflect those rays onto the receiver, thus concentrating the solar radiation, it’s necessary to have the mirrors tracking the Sun as it moves on the sky along the day.
The position of the Sun with reference to a specific point on the Earth’s surface can be determined with a set of two angles: azimuth & altitude angles or hour angle & declination.
The systems which concentrate solar radiation onto a linear receiver (a tube) are called ‘linear focus’ or 2D systems. Such systems need to track the Sun only according to one of the above mentioned angles, depending on the orientation of the collector (W-E or N-S). These are the so-called ‘one-axis tracking’ systems. (for instance, a Linear Fresnel)
The systems which concentrate solar radiation onto a singular receiver are called ‘point focus’ or 3D systems. Such systems need to track the Sun according to both of the above mentioned angles. These are the so-called ‘two-axis tracking’ systems (for instance, a heliostat).
In the case of a solar thermal power plant, the solar energy is transferred to a thermal fluid at an outlet temperature high enough to feed a heat engine or a turbine that produces electricity.
Solar transients and irradiance fluctuations can be mitigated by using an oversized mirror field and using the excess energy to load a thermal or chemical storage system.
Hybrid plants using fossil backup burners connected in series or in parallel are also possible. Combination with coal or biomass fired or gas combined cycles is feasible.
Concentrating solar power today is represented at different degrees of commercial deployment by four technologies: parabolic trough systems (PT), linear Fresnel reflector systems (LF), power towers or central receiver systems (CRS), and dish/engine systems (DE). Curved Absorber Absorber tube and mirror Tube reconcentrator
Curved mirror Pipe with thermal fluid
Parabolic Trough Linear Fresnel
Receiver / Engine Solar Receiver Reflector
Heliostats Dish/Engine Central Receiver
Figure 2 Schematic diagrams of the four CSP systems scaled up to pilot
Regarding costs, it is generally agreed that with current investment costs all CSP technologies require a public support strategy for market deployment.
Concerning the path from theoretical design to commercial exploitation, the following phases are normally considered:
Figure 3 From design to commercial exploitation
Figure 4 High-level CSP industry roadmap
(Kearney, Solar Thermal Electricity 2025. Clean electricity on demand: attractive STE cost stabilize energy production, 2010)
If applied to the four CSP technologies:
PT would be in stage 7. Revision of technology for optimization CRS in phase 6. Construction of commercial plant LF and DE in phase 5. Construction of pilot project
Typical solar-to-electricity annual conversion efficiencies and other relevant factors for the four technologies, as compiled by a group of experts, are listed in the table below (IEA Roadmap, 2010).
4
e Technology Annual solar-to- electricity efficiency Land occupancy ha/MW cooling Water (L/MWh) Storage possible Possible backup/hybrid mode fuels Solar Outlook for improvements
Yes, but Parabolic Large 3000 15% not yet for Yes No Limited trough or dry 2.7 DSG5
4 Base on operating power plants data
5 DSG: Direct steam generation Yes, but Linear 8%- Medium 3000 not yet for Yes No Significant Fresnel 10% or dry 1 DSG
20%- Depends 6 Medium 2000 Very Tower 35% on plant Yes Yes 1.6 or dry configu- significant
ration
Depends Yes, but in Through Parabolic 25%- Small None on plant limited Yes mass dish 30% configu- cases production ration Table 1 Characteristics of Concentrating Solar Power Systems 7
The values for parabolic troughs, by far the most mature technology, have been demonstrated commercially. Those for linear Fresnel, dish and tower systems are, in general, projections based on component and large-scale pilot plant test data and the assumption of mature development of current technology. Major improvement can be achieved in the not so matured technologies.
3.3.2 Worldwide current situation
Generation of electricity and heat was by far the largest producer of CO2 emissions and it was responsible for 41% of the world CO2 emissions in 2008 (International Energy Agency, (2010)). By 2030, the World Energy Outlook (International Energy Agency) forecasts that the demand for electricity will be almost twice as high as current demand, driven by rapid growth of population and income in developing countries.
Nowadays, world energy matrix is mainly based on fossil fuels leading to sustainability, supply safety and geopolitical problems. Clean energy share increase is an effective way to address them.
Following intense activity in the early 80’s, the CSP technology suffered a “blackout” in the 90’s but nowadays it is rising again as a high-potential, technically and economically feasible clean energy source.
These new impetus are found especially in countries like Spain or the USA, but other emerging economies are also in their early stage toward a full deployment of CSP technology.
Concentrating Solar Thermal Power (CSP) can provide critical solutions to global energy problems within a relatively short time frame.
CSP has the potential to make major contributions to clean energy because: it is a relatively conventional technology and ease to scale-up; primary energy excess can be stored and hence, decuple offer and demand; it is commercially proven (SEGS trough plants in
6 Concepts to be proven with commercial power plants, this means plants in real operation, up to know the figures come from simulations, not from real plants operation.
7 IEA CSP Roadmap, 2010 operation for more than 25 years); it is suitable for Independent Power Producer (IPP) and it has a proven potential for further cost reduction, as it is in the initial learning curve stage8.
Current installed capacity (August 2011) is 1,3 GW, where 1,270 MW are Parabolic Trough, 38 MW Power Tower, 10 MW Fresnel and 3 MW Stirling Dish. In Spain there are 750.5 MW installed, 717 of them are parabolic trough, 1.4 Fresnel, 31 Power Tower and 1.09 Stirling Dish. USA has a total amount of 554.5MW installed. The distribution of the technology is 543 MW of Parabolic Trough, 5 MW of Fresnel, 5 MW of Power Tower and 1.5 MW of Stirling Dish.
Different analysis have been carried out by the World Bank, Ecostar DLR, A.T. Kearney and SolarPaces-Estela-GreenPeace to estimate the evolution of CSP installed capacity in the world.
3.3.3 People´s Republic of China (PRC)
3.3.3.1 People´s Republic of China energy mix
PRC has been experiencing rapid economy development in recent decades, while primary energy consumption has increased steadily to 3,250 million tons of coal equivalent (TCE) in 2010 (National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2011), at annual growth rate of 5.8% during the period of 1981 to 2010. Coal and oil always dominate the nation’s energy mix, accounting for around 88%.
Due to continuous economy development and the increasing in the Chinese standard of living, there is significant potential for further increase on energy demand. According to the forecast by Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission, primary energy demand will range from 3,853 to 4,772 million TCE by 2020, 4,604 to 5,852 million TCE by 2035 and 5,022 to 6,690 million by 2050.
PRC faces rising challenges on energy supply and environment including air pollution and the climate change. Therefore, renewable energy is one of strategic options of PRC´s energy development, to improve PRC’s clean energy supply and energy security, enhance the quality and competitiveness of its economy, reduce pressure on the environment, and mitigate the effects of climate change.
The 12th Five Year Plan describes how PRC will additionally adjust its energy mix by developing all sources of non-fossil fuel energy. A major target for the new plan is that non- fossil fuel energy will reach 11.6 percent in 2015, and 15 percent of the total energy consumption in 2020 (currently at about eight percent). Solar energy is expected to be the cornerstone industry of the newly developed energy industry.
According to estimates for three scenarios (i.e. proactive, intermediate and business-as- usual) by the (Chinese Academy of Engineering, 2011), renewable energy is projected to be 170-320 million TCE as an energy alternative, representing 4.3%-8.1% of total energy demand (12.7%–18.2% if hydropower included) by around 2020; and be 320-640 million TCE as one of main energies, representing 7.2%-14.3% of total energy demand (16.3% - 24.4% if hydropower included) by around 2030.
8 The expected cost reduction for this technology by 2025 is around 50% (A.T. & ESTELA, 2010), in the present roadmap a 10% learning ration has been used. PRC has a high potential for CSP development between 51,000 TWeh/year and 71,000 2 TWeh/year energy production with a suitable area between 700,000 km (7% of total PRC land) and 900,000 km2 (10% of total PRC land). Potential output exceeds present coal generation 16 times, and exceeds 2030 projections seven times (International Energy Administration, 2009). Similar figures emerge when CSP potential is compared to domestic coal reserves. PRC’s proved reserves could generate about 235 thousand TWeh – equivalent to five years of CSP output in the most pessimistic scenario (Ummel, 2010), nevertheless PRC has some unique difficulties related to extreme weather conditions, sand storms, lack of water and distance from production to the final users. (Ummel, 2010)
In 2040, all the electricity demand could be supplied using around 1.5 % of PRC territory (using current technology) or 150.000 km2.
3.3.3.2 Gansu and Qinghai energy mix
Gansu and Qinghai are two provinces in PRC with a good solar resource, according to (Ummel, 2010) analysis they account for 5.4% and 14% of total CSP potential respectively. Current Technical Assistance focuses on these two provinces. Nevertheless, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Xizang, rich in solar resources can also profit from this analysis.
According to Qinghai statistical yearbook 2010 (Qinghai Provincial Statistics Bureau, 2010), the primary energy consumption in Qinghai Province was 23.48 million TCE in 2009, at annual average growth rate of 8.4% during the period of 1991 to 2009. And coal accounted for 41.5%, oil for 8.5%, natural gas for 13.9% and hydro power for 36.1%. While energy production was 29.68 million TCE, at rapid growth rate of 19.3 % during the period of 2004 to 2009, Qinghai province has become a net energy exporter to other provinces since 2005.
In Gansu province, the primary energy consumption was 54.82 million TCE in 2009 (Gansu Provincial Statistics Bureau, 2010), at annual average growth rate of 5% during the period of 1991-2009; and the coal accounted for 67.10%, oil 12.15%, natural gas 0.46%, hydro and wind power 20.29%. The energy production has speed up in the recent decade, at growth rate of 11.2% from 2000 to 2009, and reached 42.32 million TCE in 2009. But Gansu province still needs to import energy from other provinces.
Gansu and Qinghai potential electricity generation capacity is between 2,700 TWeh/year to 3,400 TWeh/year and 7,000 TWeh/year to 10,000 TWeh/year respectively covering a total land of 38.000 Km2 (8% of Gansu surface) to 48.000 Km2 (10% of Gansu surface) and 90.000 Km2 (12% of Qinghai surface) to 126.000 Km2 (18% of Qinghai surface) (Ummel, 2010). These quantities are much larger than current energy electricity production or demand.
3.4 STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
A strategic analysis covering SWOT, Benchmarks, Risks and Barriers is presented, the analysis is valid for PRC, particularly Gansu and Qinghai:
3.4.1 SWOT
Helpful Harmful
to achieving the objective to achieving the objective
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
Low Population Density. Leveraged Cost of Energy (LCOE) higher than conventional and Good solar resource, land and water availability at Gansu and Qinghai. other renewable energy (e.g. wind and solar PV) sources. Government support central and local. Distance from production to the final user. Solar resource availability Lack of skilled workers, technicians, engineers and scientists on Minimum waste generation. this field. Enough natural gas, water resource or other secondary fuels supply to feed the plant. Complex population structure. CSP for electricity production can follow demand. Unfavorable weather conditions. Involvement of ADB on the project. High altitude. CSP can combine heat and power production and can be hybridized with fossil or Transportation and communication are inconvenient for the biomass fuel. remote regions.
Internal Origin Significant effect in poverty reduction trough local jobs creation for erection and O&M. Maturity of technology. New business opportunity. Lack of other stakeholders (e.g. domestic commercial bank, both New jobs creation. federal and provincial governments .) experience, knowledge and
Attributes of the project Attributes of the project Improve standard of living of the western people. confidence on CSP. Possibility of alternative applications. Administrative process for renewable energies well known and master by the major players.
OPPORTUNITIES THREATS
Worldwide concern about GHG emissions and the climate change. Decrease of fossil fuels price and their volatility. Existing international R&D and consulting resources. Development of other renewable technologies. PRC central government is discussing the National Developing Planning, 2011-2015. Lack of necessary funding for such a large project investments. Capacity of PRC to competitive mass production. Political and/or media pressure of coal & oil/nuclear lobby to Reduced time to the market capacity of Chinese industry. forget about solar technologies in case of initial solar project Global scarcity of fossil fuels resources. failures or difficulties. Increase of fossil fuels price and their volatility. Social pressure against the projects because of their (initial) extra cost in this critical moment for any country’s economy. Without accurate and reliable DNI data. Lack of concrete financial frameworks to support the diffusion of External Origin CSP.
Attributes of the environment Attributes of the environment
Table 2 PRC SWOT Analysis 3.4.2 Benchmarks
The following bench-marks are fixed as a reference point. The roadmap proposed is coherent with them and proposes actions to make feasible reaching these targets:
Create a reliable weather database with data about solar radiation, wind, temperature, humidity and rainfall over all Chinese territory by 2020. Create domestic manufacture and supply chains for CSP plants by 2020. Create standard system on design, tests and certification on CSP plant and related equipment by 2020. Grid parity is achieved in 2030. Technology development leader in 2030. Total target (or expected) CSP installed capacity by 2040: 400 GW. Create the necessary framework for education of CSP-related technicians (plant O&M) and engineers (technology development to reach the targets listed in the former benchmarks). Development of the necessary grid infrastructure to bring solar electricity from sunny regions to more populated regions following renewable energy depolyment. Specific regulation to promote renewable energy and CSP such as: Grid connection priority and regulation, stable and clear retribution, firm power, dispatchability retribution and priority on dispatching energy
3.4.3 Risk, mitigation and contingency
3.4.3.1 Risks associated to regulation
Identified Risks Risk Mitigation Risk Contingency
Specific Renewable Take advantage of Hire foreign consultants Energy regulation international experience specialized in regulations development takes longer and advice. to shorten development than expected. time based on international experience. Create a focus group.
Stimulation mechanisms Take advantage of Prepare alternative configuration selected is international experience regulation to replace the not optimal. and advice; make periodic new regulation in case of checks of the regulation; malfunctioning. introduce some safeguard clauses in the regulation to review it without introducing regulatory risk. Set up a portfolio of stimulation mechanisms to have a more stable supporting system.
It is possible that Require a new specific An alternative team who regulators try to adapt an regulation for this issue. develops in parallel a existing document on regulation Create a group of Renewable Energy independent experts. regulation without enough customization to take into Create a surveillance team account Chinese reality. to follow the outcome when regulation is applied.
The new regulation does Prepare alternatives which Introduce complementary not encourage CSP can reinforce the new stimulus to fine tune development or regulation within the investment. deployment speed. regulation to be trigged if necessary.
The new regulation is too Take advantage of Prepare contingency generous so the international experience regulation which is applied framework results and advice. in case of a rapid inefficient in short time and expansion of this kind of Prepare alternatives which the process has to be technology. can slowdown the slowed down. development within the regulation but without jeopardizing legal security. Identified Risks Risk Mitigation Risk Contingency
The Stimulation Facilitate the knowledge Develop a R&D program to Mechanism selected can transfer between research boost this technology. be inefficient to promote centers and Introduce policies to technology development or manufacturers. promote Public Private cost reduction. Partnerships
Environmental Regulation Set arbitration between Develop new technologies can be too demanding or CSP development and with less environmental unrealistic, so the projects environment impact. are not feasible or Develop a portfolio of unnecessarily delayed. projects in different areas.
If Environmental Compare regulation with Develop technologies and Regulation is inadequate, international benchmarks procedures for the and the major hazards are identified risks. Set clear and feasible to not considered, the enforce penalties. consequences of a potential accident can Promote public opinion cause serious awareness. environmental damages.
Table 3 Risks associated to regulation
3.4.3.2 Risks associated to population and society
Identified Risks Risk Mitigation Risk Contingency
Possible resettlements can Create campaigns about Create new urban centers generate social opposition. benefits of this kind of destined to the resettled technology. local habitants. Improve life quality of resettled people. Improve life quality of local communities Portfolio of locations to chose the ones with lower impact on population Long range urban planning defining Solar parks.
Lack of interest by existing Publicity on the future Governmental regulation teaching institutions on market for new education on new titles. new training and work opportunities.
Lack of interest by possible trainees on CSP
Lack of support by public authorities on training on CSP
Table 4 Risks associated to population and society
3.4.3.3 Risks associated to manufacturing industry
Identified Risks Risk Mitigation Risk Contingency
The role of local Boost the creation of Promote joint ventures with companies is eclipsed by indigenous manufacturer technology providers international or some large companies by stimulation combining international Chinese companies. policies. and national companies.
If few industrial players are Make arbitration to avoid Apply the PRC regulations in place, they could control these situations. to promote free market. the market creating an Promote the creation of oligopoly situation which new companies would keep prices up. Promote the investment on R&D.
Locations for CSP plants Promote special Set transport mechanisms are far away from current development areas nearby to supply the plants. manufacturing centers. good solar resource areas.
Identified Risks Risk Mitigation Risk Contingency
Fluctuations in prices of Long term contract, on the Create Government funds steel, glass for mirrors or range of three to five to cover possible gas can increase risk and years. fluctuations of the price hence financial costs. which make impossible the construction of plants.
No clear body to develop PRC appropriate Use international standards, which gather governmental body standards consensus from involvement in the stakeholders: Industry, process. developers, utilities, government, financial institutions, .
The standardization sets Make a public reference of Use international the references in quality standards. standards manufacturing. The lack of Facilitate the knowledge standardization can lead to transfer among inefficient or non manufacturers. competitive products. Creation of standardization Committees
Table 5 Risks associated to manufacturing industry
3.4.3.4 Risks associated to investors
Identified Risks Risk Mitigation Risk Contingency
Investors are not attracted Check periodically the Prepare alternative by these projects and the results and forecast the regulation which can predicted amount of MW future developments, if replace the new regulation installed is not reached. needed fine tune the in case it is not efficient regulation without enough to attract investor increasing uncertainty. interest. Clear communication of Government interest on CSP development to the different stakeholders. Trough communication and training reduce perceived risk.
Investors are too attracted Check periodically the Prepare alternative by these projects due to results and forecast the regulation which can their international future developments, if replace the new regulation experience and target is needed fine tune the if it is impossible to slow exceeded. regulation without down development but increasing uncertainty. without increasing uncertainty of jeopardizing existing projects.
Lack of reliable weather Make publicly available Use of private databases. data. reliable weather data.
Lack of interest by the Introduce stimulation Public development of major players due to a lack mechanisms that promote projects. of projects pipe line to stable pipeline project which supply in PRC or development (i.e. FIT). abroad. Make visible the pipeline of projects.
Lack of wiliness by the Information campaign. Public support of new domestic financial technology projects. Training. institutions and investors to Specific policy and implement the new Financial or guarantee allocation for new projects. technology. mechanisms from governmental agencies or multilateral institutions.
Table 6 Risks associated to investors Risks associated to technology
Identified Risks Risk Mitigation Risk Contingency
Forecast in conventional Long term contracts with Create stimulation technology cost reduction suppliers based on mechanism for R&D. fails. partnership agreements. Create stimulation New technologies do not Make the pipeline of mechanism for mature. projects visible to CSP components value chain so economies manufacturers. of scale can develop. Promote the participation in international bidding. Promote R&D-Industry collaboration.
Problems in technology Enhance and boost Make R&D agreements and knowledge transfer to relations between foreign between foreign and pilot and demo projects. and indigenous R&D indigenous R&D centers centers and foreign and and foreign and indigenous indigenous manufacture manufacture companies. companies.
New technologies for Boost R&D to reduce Avoid oligopoly situations electricity storage reduce global CSP costs and in heat storage medium. the cost of this alternative. particularly, thermal storage.
Transposition of Multidisciplinary team of New standard international standards experts in charge development. without taking into account Follow up committee Chinese specificities or lack of standardization.
Table 7 Risks associated to technology
3.4.3.5 Risks associated to weather:
Identified Risks Risk Mitigation Risk Contingency
Locations can be Create protection Develop technology or inappropriate for this mechanism to avoid reinforce the existing technology due to the damages in the equipment. weather conditions. equipments. Increase preventive and Increase the requirements predictive maintenance. for materials and equipments. Portfolio of projects to avoid areas with major risks.
Sandstorms or other Develop security Create physical barriers adverse weather mechanisms (automatic (i.e. trees) to reduce conditions can cause regulation of solar field) sandstorms effect. problems or damages in which protect equipments the solar field or when inclement weather is unexpected cleaning costs. detected. Technology development.
Table 8 Risks associated to weather
3.4.3.6 Risks associated to plants needed supplies
Identified Risks Risk Mitigation Risk Contingency
Shortage of gas for hybrid Develop a stimulation Promote hybrid coal-solar power plants due to mechanism to hybridize power plants. competitive uses or lack of fossil fuels with clean supply. energy. Promote R&D and demonstration projects.
Usually locations with good Create Water reserves and Change the wet cooling DNI have problems with specific canalizations to system of the power plant water supply. Water ensure the supply for these by dry cooling shortages can stop plant plants. operation. Promote R&D on dry cooling Promote Combined Heat and Power projects, such as desalinization or industrial heat.
Some CSP plants may Enhance the existing Create the necessary need basic infrastructure infrastructures. transport infrastructures. development (roads and electric lines) before construction.
The needs of qualified Taking advantage of Create specific programs scientist, designers, international experience, to train engineers, scientific operators, specialized EPC design training courses and operators. companies, financial with international advice. institutions, . can complicate or delay the construction and operation of the plants.
Scarcity of raw materials Plan and communicate to Lower import taxes for and components the industry the plan to CSP use of components develop CSP plants. and materials. Disseminate the pipe-line of projects
Table 9 Risks associated to plants needed supplies
3.4.3.7 Risks associated to grid
Identified Risks Risk Mitigation Risk Contingency
CSP plant locations, grid Take into account grid Create HVDC grid. capacity and distance to situation when defining end user, can make the plants location. Promote projects not feasible. the creation of clean industry, energy intensive and population areas near the CSP plants and promote combined heat and power production
Lack of agreement Preparatory meetings and between: central, regional, agreements in advanced. local government for HVDC development.
Lack of interest by the Dissemination on HVDC Regulation and planning. National State Grid as profits, pilot projects. (HVDC) will compete with the current grid
Lack of resources to Create a specific fund. Promote private-public finance this infrastructure. partnership in such a way that risks are shared and overall diminished increasing investment and financing
Table 10 Risks associated to grid
3.4.4 Barriers
Technical barriers:
Extensive need of land. Extensive need of water for cooling and cleaning. Unfavorable weather conditions (extreme temperatures and sand storms) Lack of available solar resource data. Lack of indigenous industry. Lack experience of building CSP power plants and no experience of running CSP power plants. Lack of accepted standards. Distance from production to demand, grid weakness. Technology risk for new developments. World market of several critical components is on the hands of a very few suppliers. Access to water or natural gas networks.
Economical, policy barriers:
Lack of specific governmental plan for CSP development integrated in official planning. Current higher LCOE than other sources for the electricity generated. Lack of experience on CSP investing in PRC(confidence and perceived risk of investors) High Initial investment and difficulty to build economically sound pilot project (feasible in solar PV and Wind). Lack of knowledge, experience and confidence of domestic commercial banks on CSP projects.
Social Barriers:
Resettlement Perceived risks due to lack of knowledge on the technology.
Environmental Barriers
Regulation on the use of thermal oil.
3.4.5 Potential barriers
Feed-in-tariff rigidity. Hybridization bounded. Slowing down of the R&D and pilot projects. Competition with other renewable energy sources (solar PV, wind, nuclear and mining lobbies) 3.5 CSP DEPLOYMENT: ELECTRICITY GENERATION, CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY, VALUE PROPOSITION & SHARE ON THE NATIONAL ENERGY MIX BY 2040
3.5.1 CSP developing scenario in PRC
Three possible scenarios have been considered for the developing of CSP in PRC, Gansu and Qinghai. These are: Business-as-Usual, Intermediate Scenario and Proactive Scenario.
These scenarios are:
Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario: No specific action is taken other than the general regulation for renewable energy in PRC CSP must compete with other renewable energies. In 2040, 2% of the electricity is produced using CSP.
Intermediate Scenario: Actions are taken by the government to promote the development of this technology, such as planning and setting up goals, multilateral soft-loans, projects concession biddings and R&D support. In 2040, 6% of the electricity is produced using CSP.
Proactive Scenario: Actions are taken by the government to boost the development of technology projects, pipe-line industry such as planning, multilateral soft loans, investment subsidies for new technologies, project concession bidding, feed-in-tariff and power bidding. In 2040, 15% of the electricity is produced using CSP.
These scenarios will be affected by exogenous factors such as: the development of CSP in other parts of the world, the evolution of fossil fuels and other energy sources, and storage costs and CO2 and other externalities perceived value, global and local evolution of economy and major natural or man-made disruptions.
Different scenarios will lead to different rates of reduction of the gap with competitive sources of energy. Support or leverage should finish once equilibrium is achieved. Measures proposed in this roadmap are oriented to narrowing the gap maximizing profit for society.
The three scenarios have been defined by the team of experts taking into account the restrictions (Energy demand, land availability, investment, grid, water, human resources, .) and international experience, both on installed capacity and energy mix.
To represent the installed capacity a logistic curve could have been used, but taking into account the early stages of development, a simple polynomial has been used.