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Planning for the Energy Transition: Solar Photovoltaics in Arizona By Planning for the Energy Transition: Solar Photovoltaics in Arizona by Debaleena Majumdar A Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy Approved November 2018 by the Graduate Supervisory Committee: Martin J. Pasqualetti, Chair David Pijawka Randall Cerveny Meagan Ehlenz ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY December 2018 ABSTRACT Arizona’s population has been increasing quickly in recent decades and is expected to rise an additional 40%-80% by 2050. In response, the total annual energy demand would increase by an additional 30-60 TWh (terawatt-hours). Development of solar photovoltaic (PV) can sustainably contribute to meet this growing energy demand. This dissertation focuses on solar PV development at three different spatial planning levels: the state level (state of Arizona); the metropolitan level (Phoenix Metropolitan Statistical Area); and the city level. At the State level, this thesis answers how much suitable land is available for utility-scale PV development and how future land cover changes may affect the availability of this land. Less than two percent of Arizona's land is considered Excellent for PV development, most of which is private or state trust land. If this suitable land is not set-aside, Arizona would then have to depend on less suitable lands, look for multi-purpose land use options and distributed PV deployments to meet its future energy need. At the Metropolitan Level, ‘agrivoltaic’ system development is proposed within Phoenix Metropolitan Statistical Area. The study finds that private agricultural lands in the APS (Arizona Public Service) service territory can generate 3.4 times the current total energy requirements of the MSA. Most of the agricultural land lies within 1 mile of the 230 and 500 kV transmission lines. Analysis shows that about 50% of the agricultural land sales would have made up for the price of the sale within 2 years with agrivoltaic systems. At the City Level, the relationship between rooftop PV development and demographic variables is analyzed. The relationship of solar PV installation with household income and unemployment rate remain consistent in cities of Phoenix and Tucson while it varies with i other demographic parameters. Household income and owner occupancy shows very strong correlations with PV installation in most cities. A consistent spatial pattern of rooftop PV development based on demographic variables is difficult to discern. Analysis of solar PV development at three different planning levels would help in proposing future policies for both large scale and rooftop solar PV in the state of Arizona. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This dissertation has been possible due to unwavering support and contributions of many. I am extremely thankful to my advisor Dr. Martin J. Pasqualetti for believing in me and giving me the much-needed freedom to explore research ideas on my own. Countless discussions that I had with him were invaluable for my research work. I would also like to thank him for allowing me to give guest lectures in his courses. These lectures have been immensely helpful in expanding my knowledge on the various aspects of energy. I would like to thank my committee members Drs. David Pijawka, Randall Cerveny and Megan Ehlenz for their valuable guidance and inputs on writing this dissertation. I would specially like to thank Dr. Megan Ehlenz for guiding me in writing the papers for the comprehensive exam. I am also thankful to her for the valuable inputs in the research publications. I would like to express my sincerest thanks to Dr. Elizabeth Wentz in guiding me to find the right advisor for my work. Without her advice, I would not be working with Dr. Pasqualetti today. I am thankful to Dr. Soe Myint for his inputs on remote sensing techniques and resources for my research. I would also like to thank Dr. George Frisvold (University of Arizona) for his inputs on Chapter 3. Very special thanks go to the staff at the School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning. I am grateful for their support all through my graduate study at ASU. I would like to thank Mr. Alvin Huff for helping me with all IT issues that I have faced for my research and teaching in the last few years. I am thankful to Dr. Ronald Dorn and Mr. Bryan Eisentraut for helping me gain inestimable teaching experience here at ASU. My sincerest thanks go to Mr. Nicholas Ray and Ms. Rebecca Reining for their support all through my stay at ASU. Sincere thanks go to Dr. Mary Whelan (former Geospatial and Research Data Manager, Informatics and Cyberinfrastructure Services) for always answering my questions on GIS data. iii I am thankful to Ms. Christine Kollen (Data Curation Librarian) and Mr. Benjamin Hickson (Geospatial Specialist) from University of Arizona for helping me with GIS data. A big thank you to Mr. Marcel Suri (Managing Director at Solargis, Slovakia) for helping me to find the much required data on Global Horizontal Irradiance. I am also grateful to Mr. Mark Hartman (Chief Sustainability Officer at the City of Phoenix) and Ms. Sandra Hoffman (Assistant Director, Development Division, at City of Phoenix, Planning and Development Department) for their valuable inputs to this research. I would like to thank Mr. Colin Tetrault (Instructional Professional, Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability, ASU) for his suggestions and inputs. I am thankful to Ms. Lori Miller (GIS Specialist at Arizona Corporation Commission) for helping me to find data related to transmission lines. I am grateful to Dr. Govindasamy Tamizhmani (Associate Research Professor, Fulton Schools of Engineering, director of Photovoltaic Reliability Laboratory at ASU) for giving me a chance to visit his research laboratory. It was a great learning experience for me. I would also like to thank Mr. Eric Feldman (GIS Analyst at Maricopa County) for helping me to find LIDAR data for the Maricopa County. I am thankful to Mr. Dan Keating (Database Editor and Reporter at Washington Post) for sharing data on powerplant locations in United States. My thanks goes out to Ms. Nancy LaPlaca (Energy Consultant) for getting me in touch with Mr. Ethan Case (Policy Manager at Cypress Creek Renewables) and Mr. Daniel Brookshire (Regulatory & Policy Analyst - North Carolina Sustainable Energy Association) who provided me with valuable information on solar farms in North Carolina. I am indebted to my loving parents Mrs. Mita Majumder and Mr. Sanjib Ranjan Majumdar for their relentless support and resolution in my pursuit for the PhD degree. Lastly, I am beholden to my husband Sagnik for guiding me through thick and thin in my research endeavor. This dissertation would have been impossible without his inspiration. iv To my parents v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES …………………………...…………………………………….…... ix LIST OF FIGURES ………………………………………………………………..… xiii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Electricity Demand ………………………………………………………. 1 1.2 Arizona’s Electricity Mix ………………………………………………… 2 1.3 The Solar Resource ………………………………………………………. 3 1.4 Why Solar Photovoltaic (PV)? ………………………………………….... 5 1.5 Arizona: A Regional Energy Hub ……………………………………….... 6 1.6 Spatial Planning Considerations …………………………………………. 7 1.7 Research Objectives ……………………………………………………… 8 2. ANALYSIS OF LAND AVAILABILITY FOR UTILITY-SCALE POWER PLANTS AND ASSESSMENT OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE STATE OF ARIZONA 2.1 Introduction ……………………………………………………………… 10 2.2 Methodology ……………………………………………………………. 13 2.3 Results and Discussion …………………………………………………. 31 2.4 Conclusions ……………………………………………………………… 45 3. DUAL USE OF AGRICULTURAL LAND: ‘AGRIVOLTAICS’ IN PHOENIX METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA 3.1 Introduction ……………………………………………………………… 48 3.2 The Need for Agrivoltaic System in Phoenix MSA …….………………. 53 vi CHAPTER Page 3.3 Solar Energy Potential of the Agricultural Land in Phoenix MSA ……. 57 3.4 Shading of Crops ………………………………………………………. 67 3.5 Benefits to Farmers ………………...…………………………………. 71 3.6 Discussion ……………………………………………………………... 75 3.7 Conclusions ……………………………………………………………. 78 4. UNDERSTANDING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS AND RESIDENTIAL ROOFTOP PHOTOVOLTAIC DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHWEST USA 4.1 Introduction ……………………………………………………………. 80 4.2 Study Area ……………………………………………………………… 82 4.3 Method and Data Sources ………………………………………………. 85 4.4 Results and Discussion ………………………………………………… 88 4.4.1 State Comparisons ……………………………………………… 88 4.4.2 City Comparisons ……………………………….……………… 92 4.5 Conclusions ………………………………………….…………………... 96 5. CONCLUSION 5.1 Review …………………………………………………………………. 98 5.2 Future Considerations …………………………………………………. 100 REFERENCES …………………….……………………………………………. 102 APPENDIX A SOLAR RADIATION SIMULATIONS FOR PHEONIX METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA ……………………………………………………… 116 vii CHAPTER Page B AGRICULTURAL LAND FOR DIFFERENT URBAN AREAS ACROSS THE WORLD …………..………………………….……..………………… 120 C CORRELATIONS BETWEEN INDEPENDENT VARIABLES ………… 124 viii LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1.1 CO2 Emissions for Different Electric Power Generation Technologies …….…. 6 1.2 Comparison of Area Required to Generate per GWh (Gigawatt Hour) of Energy using Coal, Nuclear and Solar PV Technologies ………………….……………. 8 2.1 Studies using Geographic Information Science (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) to Find Land Suitable for PV Development ………….….……. 11 2.2 Data Source of Constraint Areas for Solar PV Development …….……………. 15 2.3 Areas of Constraints for Solar PV Development ……………………..………. 16 2.4 Number of Operating PV Power Plants in Arizona in the Suitability Categories Based on Slope
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