Clean energy development in China --the real potential and real challenge

Include a relevant picture or December 04, Tsinghua University event theme banner to make the slide more interesting Lixiao ZHANG, Professor School of Environment Beijing Normal University Today’s Topics

1 The resource potential and development status of China’s CE

2 Renewability of biomass energy in China

3 MFA/LCA/EA of wind power development in China

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Pre-talk questions

 Why for clean production and recycling?  What’s the difference between the concepts of clean energy, renewable energy, non-fossil energy?  Do you think or believe clean energy will play a big role in future energy mix in China as well as at worldwide?

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Changes of focus for sustainable development in China

Xu, 2019

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Cleaner production and clean energy

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Cleaner production and clean energy

Clean energy development in China Date and Location The resource potential and development status of China’s CE

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Clean energy family

Hydroenergy Wind Energy Solar Energy

Biomass Energy Geothermal Energy Nuclear energy Clean energy development in China Date and Location The resource potentialGLOBAL WIND ATLAS estimation MEAN WIND POWER DENSITY MAP CHINA Hydro energy resource Wind resource Solar resource

Technical exploitation Explored capacity Type This map is printed using the Global Wind Atlas online application website (v.3.0) owned by the Technical University of Denmark. For more information and terms of use, please visit https://globalwindatlas.info Proportion capacity （GW） (GW） Hydro power 660 350（by 2017） 53.0% Wind power 3500 198 5.7% PV power 2200 190 8.6% Biomass power 460（Mtce） 22（Mtce） 6.1%

Clean energy development in China Date and Location 12 th-13th FYP clean energy development goals

13th 12th FYP 2010 2015 Rate FYP 2018 Rate by 2018 target target

Hydropower （GW） 216.06 290 319.54 110.2% 340 350 102.9% Wind power（GW） 31 100 129 129.0% 210 198 94.3% PV power（MW） 0.8 21 43.18 205.6% 105 190 181.0%

Biomass power（GW） 5.5 13 10.3 79.2% 15 17.84 118.9% Solar thermal power（MW） 500 200 40% Nuclear power (GW) 45 44.6 99%

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Main policy initiatives

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Hydropower

⚫ China is sitting in the world’s first place in terms

of both installed and generation capacity.

⚫ In 2018, China has registered an installed Include a relevant picture to make the slide more interesting hydraulic capacity of 352 GW of electricity, and

an annual grid power generation capacity of

1232.93 TWh of electricity, accounting for 17.6%

of the total electricity generated in the country. .

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Hydropower stations(Top 10)

Three Gorge, 22,500 MW Xiluodu, 13,860 MW Baihetan,16,000MW Wudongde,12,000MW Xiangjiaba,7,750MW

Longtan,6,300MW Nuojiadu,5,850MW Jinping ,4,800MW Xiaowan ,4,200MW Laxiwa ,4,200MW Clean energy development in China Date and Location

Challenges

⚫ Hydropower curtailment Imbalance of supply and demand and grimly consumption situation of water power ⚫ Low efficiency of pumped storage power station Affected by overcapacity, thermal power, and other causes of power peaking in the utilization rate of decreasing storage ⚫ Negative impact on the environment Regional ecosystem ⚫ Lowing economic return Mountainous, difficult and higher cost to construct ⚫ Resettlement difficulties .

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Wind power

3000-6000kw Others 750kw United 1% 2% 2% 600kw 200000 Kingdom 0.2% 850kw 3000kw 4% Other 2% 1250kw 3% countries 1% Brazil 3% 10%

) 2500kw France W 11% China

M 150000 3% (

y 211,392

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t Include a relevant picture to

a 36% l u <600kw 600kw Germany

m make the slide more interesting u

c 10% c

A 750kw 850kw

1250kw 1500kw 50000 2000kw 2500kw Other Europe 3000kw 3000-6000kw 13% USA 16% Others

0

9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

8

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1

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Year Accumulated installed capacity of wind power in China Structure of the accumulated wind power installed capacity in 2018

⚫ Accumulated installed capacity increased from 1.27GW in 2006 to 211GW in 2018, with 166 times increase. ⚫ Dominant wind turbine size updated quickly with the wind turbine size enlargement. ⚫ By 2018, China has become the world‘s largest wind power market, accounting for 36% of the total. Clean energy development in China Date and Location Wind power curtailment

Wind energy resources and curtailment rates in the Sanbei region

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Solar power

⚫ China enjoys a fast growth of its

solar photovoltaic industry since

2004

⚫ China has kept first place in the

world since 2007 in terms of

production of photovoltaic cells.

⚫ Ever since March 2009, particularly during 2011–2015, a series of incentives, including direct subsidies for solar PV installations, a national FIT scheme, among others, have been implemented by the government

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Solar power

⚫ China’s solar PV accumulated installed capacity reached

131 GW by the end of 2017, including 100.6 GW of large-

scale PV and 30.5 GW of distributed PV, resulting in a

1310-fold increase in capacity from 0.1 GW in 2006 to 53

GW in 2017.

⚫ Solar power generation increased from 0.1 TWh in 2006 to

118.2 TWh in 2017, accounting for 1.67% of total power

generation.

Growth of solar power in China between 2006 and 2017 Clean energy development in China Date and Location Economic cost

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Biomass power

Installed capacity and generating capacity of biomass power in China

Data source: China Electricity Statistical Yearbook Clean energy development in China Date and Location Nuclear power

44.6 GW

Data source: China Electricity Statistical Yearbook Clean energy development in China Date and Location Discussions

 What’s do you think the possible resources impacts derived from the development of CE?  What’s do you think the possible environmental impacts derived from the development of CE?  What’s do you think the possible ecological impacts derived from the development of CE?

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Renewability of biomass energy in China

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Life cycle thinking • Consider the entire life cycle of a product when evaluating its environmental impacts • raw material extraction → processing → manufacturing → transport → use → recycle/reuse → disposal

US Office of Technology Assessment (1992)

Clean energy development in China Date and Location LCA method

Unit processes Standard processes “Gate to gate” emissions emissioemissioemissions

intermediates

resources exploitation preparationpreparationproduction use phase disposal emissionsemissions

energy

Cradle to gate Gate to grave

CradleCradle to to grave grave

26

Clean energy development in China Date and Location RenewabilityBackground analysis

➢Low Quality（Low Energy Density） ➢Disperse Distribution

Life Cycle Assessment（LCA)

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Energy quality

Energy ladder ranks fuels from ‘worst’ to ‘best’ in terms of cost, cleanliness, convenience or energy intensity etc. (quality) (Gosens et al. 2013).

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Industrial processes

Electricity

Gasification

Fermentation

Liquid fuel

Solid fuel

Biomass resources

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Renewability analysis

Corn ethanol Cassava ethanol Jatropha Rape R%—energy output provided by renewable resources Wood gasification Straw gasification Wood power Straw power N%—energy output provided by non-renewable resources Salix power Biogas Wood pellet Straw briquette

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Renewability analysis资源环境成本-能耗

⚫ In terms of different energy forms, solid fuel has the highest renewability, while liquefaction and gasification processes are relatively complex; ⚫ The poor renewability indicates that in the process of improving energy quality, energy cost increases and system renewability decreases; ⚫ From different transformation processes, the physical process (compression molding) is the most renewable, and the biological process (household) is the best.

Clean energy development in China Date and Location MFA/LCA/EA of wind power development in China

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Wind power is material intensive

Clean energy development in China Date and Location MFA is essential

Renewable energy infrastructure requires much more material than traditional energy.

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Wind turbine components Blade Steel & iron

Gearbox Aluminium

Hub Copper

Polymer Generator

Concrete Others GFRP

Nacelle Electronics

Tower Lubricants

Foundation Magnet

Wind farm site equipment

Conceptual figure of the material intensity split model

Clean energy development in China Date and Location High-resolution wind turbine database W1250-64 W1250-70 UP1500-86 W2000-105 UP3000 W2000-99 V52-850kw W2000-93 XE72-2000 W2000-87 XE/DD115 W3600-122 XE/DD128 W3600-116 77/1500kw W5000 MWT100/2.5WM GW115/2.0MW Top10 Manufacture EN15-82 SL3000/90 26 Series 100/2500 SL3000/100 102 Types 90/2500 SL3000/105 87/1500 SL3000/113 87/1500 Domestic & imported SL3000/118 87/1500 Geared & Direct Drive GW43/600 V82-1.65 GW48/750 V90-3.0MW GW87/1500 V100-3MW GW62/1200 V52 UP1500-77 V80 UP1500-82 V52-850kw

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Material in-flow 25 1800 Concrete NdFeB Lubricants GFRP Polymer Copper 1600 Aluminium Steel and iron

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1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Year

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Material in-use stock 180 Concrete Permanent magnet 6 Lubricants Electronics

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1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Year

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Spatial distribution of material in-use stock

Heilongjiang

Jilin

Liaoning Xinjiang Inner Mongolia

Gansu

Hebei Shanxi Ningxia Shandong Qinghai Shaanxi Henan Jiangsu Tibet Anhui Hubei

Sichuan Chongqing Zhejiang

Jiangxi Hunan Guizhou Fujian

Yunnan Guangdong Guangxi Taiwan

Hainan

Clean energy development in China Date and Location

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Clean energy development in China Date and Location Wind turbine blade waste of China

1,200 8000 Accumulated manufacturing waste in last 5 years

1,200 8000 )

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Clean energy development in China Date and Location Patterns of blade waste in each region

1000 1000 1000 900 East 900 North 900 Northwest 800 800 800 700 700 700 600 600 600 500 500 500 400 400 400 300 300 300 200 200 200 100 100 100

0 0 0

5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0

5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0

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0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

1000 1000 1000 1000 900 Central 900 Southwest South Production waste 900 Northeast 800 800 800 Operation waste 800 700 700 End-of-life waste 700 600 600 600 600 500 500 500 400 400 400 400 300 300 300 200 200 200 200 100 100 100

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2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Blade waste in each province

2018年 2030年

2040年 2050年

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Life cycle emissions of CE

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Comparison between plain and mountain Distribution Road Platform Xinjiang Inner Mongolia Inner Mongolia

Plain

Sichuan Anhui Sichuan

Mountain

Name of the Event Date and Location Construction process

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Case area

Installed ca Wind Constr Altitu Road Turbi pacity (M farm uction de (m) (km) nes W) 2010- 1997- NO.1 49.56 87 130.5 2011 2621 2350- 1 3 NO.2 2014 72.38 113 169.5 2 2704 2256- NO.3 2014 26.61 25 50 2547

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Schematic diagram

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Land use change intensity

Road

Ri ：0.61m/kW

Platform 2 Pi:1m /kW

A 50MW wind farm would occupy approximately 42 standard football fields

Clean energy development in China Date and Location 2010-2017 △NDVI

Clean energy development in China Date and Location NDVI changes of different buffers 0.90 0.95

0.85 0.90

0.85 0.80

0.80 0.75

0.75

I

V

I

D

V N

D 0.70 0.70 N

0.65 0.65

0.60 0.60 0.55

0.55

0.50

0 4 6 3 5 7 0 4 6 3 5 7 0 4 6 3 5 7

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

0.50 2

0 3 4 5 6 7 0 3 4 5 6 7 0 3 4 5 6 7 0 3 4 5 6 7 0 3 4 5 6 7 0 3 4 5 6 7

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 30m 60m 90m 120m 150m 180m

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 30m 60m 90m 120m 150m 180m Road Wind turbine platform

Clean energy development in China Date and Location NDVI changes with time 1.0 1.0 1.0

0.9 Road 0.9 0.9 Background NDVI 0.8 0.8 0.8

0.7 0.7 0.7

0.6 0.6 0.6

I V

D 0.5 0.5 0.5 N ∆ NDVI=Background NDVI - Construction area NDVI 0.4 0.4 0.4

0.3 0.3 0.3

0.2 0.2 0.2

0.1 0∆.1 NDVI 0.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 30m 60m 90m 120m 30m 60m 90m 120m 30m 60m 90m 120m 150m 180m ND30 ND60 150m 180m ND30 ND60 150m 180m ND30 ND60 1.0 1.0 1.0 Wind turbine foundation Wind power construction decreased 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 the resilience. 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7

0.6 Make the construction area more

0.6 0.6

I V

D 0.5 0.5 0.5 N sensitive 0.4 0.4 0.4

0.3 0.3 0.3

0.2 0.2 0.2

0.1 0.1 0.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 30m 60m 90m 120m 30m 60m 90m 120m 30m 60m 90m 120m Clean energy development150m in180m ChinaND30 ND60 150m 180m ND30 ND60 Date and150m Location180m N D30 ND60 Wind farm changed the surface temperature

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Wind power impacts the ecosystem

Raptor number

Attack of raptor

Lizard density

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Killing bird?

Sovacool B K. Contextualizing avian mortality: A preliminary appraisal of bird and bat fatalities from wind, fossil-fuel, and nuclear electricity[J]. Energy Policy, 2009, 37(6): 2241-2248.

Clean energy development in China Date and Location Thank You [email protected]

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