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Yugoslav Crisis in the Context of the II Cold War (1980-90)

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Yugoslav Crisis in the Context of the II Cold War (1980-90) UNIVERZA V LJUBLJANI FAKULTETA ZA DRUŽBENE VEDE Petar Popović Jugoslovanska kriza v kontekstu II. hladne vojne (1980-90) Yugoslav Crisis in the Context of the II Cold War (1980-90) Doktorska disertacija Ljubljana, 2011 1 UNIVERZA V LJUBLJANI FAKULTETA ZA DRUŽBENE VEDE Petar Popović Mentor: red. prof. dr. Bojko Bučar Jugoslovanska kriza v kontekstu II. hladne vojne (1980-90) Yugoslav Crisis in the Context of the II Cold War (1980-90) Doktorska disertacija Ljubljana, 2011 2 Acknowledgements This dissertation was originally started at the School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University College London in 2006, but continued at the Faculty of Social Science, Ljubljana University. I would especially like to thank my supervisor prof. dr. Bojko Bučar and the readers; prof. dr. Marijan Svetličić and prof. dr. Dušan Nećak who were of great help and big support for completing this work. I would also like to thank prof dr Vesna Godina from Ljubljana University who supervised my work for a certain period of time. The encouragement to write about SFRY crisis was already given by prof. dr. Gregory Weeks, my professor from MA program at Webster University Vienna. The major support in writing this dissertation came from dr. Radule Knežević with whom I spent hours discussing this topic, and whose library at Politička Kultura publishing house became the main source for my research. I would also like to thank Ivana Tenžera from the National Library, Zagreb, and Branko Borilović and the Central Library, Cetinje. The support through inspirational discussions, suggestions and insightful information came from dr. Zlatko Matijević from the Institute for History in Zagreb, prof. dr. Dragan Lalović Faculty of Political Science in Zagreb and prof. dr. Dragan Vukčević (dean of the Law faculty) and prof. dr. Radovan Vukadinović (dean of Humanities) at the University Donja Gorica. The great support through inspirational and insightful discussion came from the people I interviewed for this dissertation, Budimir Lončar, the last minister for foreign affairs of SFRY; Nino Kopač, SFRY consul in Washington; Branko Lukovac, the diplomat; Blagoje Grahovac, military analyst; and prof. dr. Vojislav Stanovičić of Faculty of Political Science in Belgrade, who served as Edvard Kardelj’s chief of cabinet (to whom I was introduced by Vanja Božović). I would like to mention those who provided me with books that were of major importance to my work: Marko Špadjer from Matica Institute in Montenegro, Jelena Hekman from Matica Institute in Croatia, philosopher Dražen Katunarić, writer and poet Jevrem Brković, Janko Bekić from Institute for Internationa Relations in Zagreb, diplomat Darko Bekić, prof. Ognen Bojađiski, Strahinja Marović, Natko Ožura, Maja Radoman, Tomislav Marčinko, and late Živorad Kovačević. Furthermore, this dissertation would not have been possible with out the help and constant support from Jure Anzulović, Miroslav Lilić, Michael Popović, Predrag Matvejević, Ivana Jelić, Kenneth Morrison, Balša Brković and Dejan Jović. My final draft was commented with helpful suggestions by prof dr Željko Šević of Caledonian University. I would also like to thank Dragica Petrović who introduced me to prof. dr. Vesna Godina. For editing and translating I would like to thanks prof. dr. Andrej Fištravec, Milena Bekić- Milinović, Višnja Ruter and Petra Vrkljan. 3 Jugoslovanska kriza v kontekstu II. hladne vojne (1980-90) Povzetek Politika velikih sil iz časov blokovske polarizacije hladne vojne med leti 1945 do 1989 je imela veliko vlogo za razvoj, stabilnost in integriteto multietične Socialistične Federativne Republike Jugoslavije (SFRJ). Problem delovanja države, nastanek krize in razpad državne skupnosti ni mogoče analizirati brez upoštevanja teh procesov v okviru mednarodnih odnosov. Pričujoča disertacija se ukvarja z analizo tega mednarodnega okvira s predpostavko, da se kriza SFRJ ne more v celoti spoznati brez razumevanja vplivov politik zunanjih sil. Za razumevanje vpliva mednarodnih razmer na političnoekonomski in družbeni razvoj in procese znotraj SFRJ je bila v nalogi uporabljena konstruktivistična teorija mednarodnih odnosov. Glede na to, da je konstruktivizem kot sodobna teorija postpozitivistična in zaradi tega zelo fleksibilna pri uporabi ustreznih metod, se v disertaciji koristita sistemska teorija za potrebe pojasnitve konteksta II. Hladne vojne (1979-1985) in Habermasov model krize za pojasnitev notranjih razlogov za razpad države. Za razumevanje problema kompleksnosti krize v SFRJ in razpada v obdobju II. Hladne vojne je potrebno analizirati 'konstrukcijo reničnosti' tedanjih političnih elit (njihovo videnje notranjepolitičnih procesov v SFRJ in njihov položaj v mednarodnih odnosih), analiza države SFRJ kot take s konstruktivističnega vidika, ki združuje vse pomembnejše tradicije (webrovsko in marksistično), in uporaba analize konstruktivistične vzajemnosti 'identitete in interesa' oziroma družbe, oblasti ter njihove vloge pri oblikovanju zunanje politike v mednarodnih odnosih. Po izključitvi Komunistične partije Jugoslavije in njenega vodje Josipa Broza Tita iz Informbiroja leta 1948 je postala SFRJ pomemben geostrateški zaveznik Združenih držav Amerike (ZDA) v jugovzhodni Evropi. Posledično je to pomenilo veliko ekonomsko in vojaško podporo. Prav tako je SFRJ v šestdesetih letih dvajsetega stoletja kot ena izmed vodilnih članic v Gibanju neuvrščenih (GN) predstavljala resno alternativo blokovski delitvi sveta ter bipolarnosti takratnega obdobja. Aktivna zunanja politika SFRJ s Titom na čelu, ki je temeljila na iskanju ravnovesja med bloki in vodenju GN, je bila porok notranje stabilnosti in integritete države. Izgube poglavitnih vodij med leti 1979 in 1983: Edvarda Kardelja (član predsedstva SFRJ in najbližji Titov sodelavec), Josipa Broza Tita (predsednik SFRJ) in Vladimirja Bakariča (najvplivnejši politik v Zvezi Komunistov s Hrvaške), ki so predstavljali vrhovno avtoriteto, so povzročile, da je partijska nomenklatura SFRJ ostala brez jasno določenih ciljev in metod reševanja krize. Ideološka pogojenost obrambe nasledstva, ki ga je za seboj zapustilo staro partijsko vodstvo na čelu s Titom, kaže na percepcijo, katera ni imela zaslombe v resničnosti. Vodstvo, vodenje katerega je temeljilo na idejni doktrini znanstvenega materializma, je izvajalo napačno ekonomsko politiko. Na drugi strani je prav tako vedno bolj prevladovala nesposobnost zunanjepolitičnega delovanja, kar je puščalo za seboj dolgoročne negativne posledice. Te posledice se bodo, ko bo mednarodni socializem v vzhodni Evropi doživel svoj zlom, odslikavale v neskladju pri oblikovanju identitete in interesov v postitovski SFRJ. Identiteta je namreč temeljila na praksah republiškega prakticiranja avtonomnega sprejemanja odločitev (ki bo pripeljala do spopada med Slovenijo in Hrvaško, ki sta se zavzemali za nadaljnjo decentralizacijo in liberalizacijo, na eni strani, ter Srbijo na drugi strani, ki je težila k obnovitvi velikodržavnega centralizma). Interes skupne države, katerega je definiral Tito vse do svoje smrti, je izginil. V začetku osemdesetih let dvajsetega stoletja prihaja do korenitih sprememb v intelektualnih in ideoloških premislekih političnih elit vodilnih sil o odnosih v Hladni voljni. Povojna generacija politikov je predstavljala svojstveno reakcijo na dotedanje realistično razumevanje 4 odnosov v sistemu Hladne vojne. Pojav nove desnice na zahodu, tržne reforme na Kitajskem ter prebujanje islamskega fundamentalizma na bližnjem in srednjem Vzhodu so s konstruktivnega vidika najavile nove spremembe v odnosu identitete in interesov posameznih družb. Nova konstrukcija družbene resničnosti oziroma prilagajanja ekonomskopolitičnim procesom v svetu se ni dogodila niti v socialističnem bloku niti v SFRJ. V vzhodni Evropi je še naprej vladala nezamenljiva nomenklatura, medtem ko se v SFRJ po Titovi smrti niso izvršile družbenopolitične spremembe. V dosedanji literaturi se mednarodni vidik krize in razpada SFRJ ni sistematično obdeloval. V analizah so se ukvarjali z mednarodnim vidikom, ki ni izhajal iz okvirov ekonomskega dejavnika kot povzročitelja dezintegracije v SFRJ. Pri določenem številu avtorjev je izpostavljen zaključek o neposredni odgovornosti zahodnih finančnih institucij v odnosu do socialistične ekonomije SFRJ, kar je imela za posledico vzpon republiških nacionalizmov. Pričujoča disertacija kaže na notranje procese krize v SFRJ v osemdesetih letih dvajsetega stoletja v okviru mednarodnih odnosov – torej v obdobju t.i. II. Hladne vojne (1979-1985). Mednarodni vidiki krize predstavljajo važen element krize (v disertaciji je obdelan odnos do ZDA, Zveze sovjetskih socialističnih republik (SSSR) in GN), da bi se lahko razumela vseobsegajoča družbena kriza in kriza samoupravnega sistema SFRJ (ekonomska kriza, kriza racionalnosti, kriza legitimnosti in kriza identitete) kot vzrok razpada države in izbruha vojne leta 1991. KLJUČNI POJMI: Mednarodni odnosi, SFRJ, II. Hladna vojna, konstruktivizem, J.B.Tito, dolžniška kriza, kriza racionalnosti, kriza legitimnosti. 5 Yugoslav Crisis in the Context of the II Cold War (1980-90) Abstract During the Cold War bipolar system (1945-89), the politics of bloc powers had a great influence on the internal processes, stability and integrity of the multiethnic Socialist Federative Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY). It is impossible to analyze the processes of change of the internal state structures of SFRY, the beginning of the crisis and the collapse of the state in the late 1980s without considering the context of the international
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