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Thailand's Digital Revolution

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Thailand's Digital Revolution October 31, 2019 ASEAN Economics Disruption Watch #7: Thailand’s Digital Revolution Analysts Thailand’s Digitalization: Falling Short Thailand’s internet economy is rising, growing from $6bn in 2015 to $16bn in Lee Ju Ye 2019. The government introduced ‘Thailand 4.0’ in 2016 to revolutionize (65) 6231 5844 industries through digitalization. However, Thailand lags behind regional peers [email protected] in digital adoption and 5G development, being the only ASEAN-6 country falling Chua Hak Bin under the Digital Evolution’s Index “Watch Out” zone (low state of (65) 6231 5830 digitalization and low momentum). Online travel is the largest component, [email protected] while e-commerce, online media and ride-hailing are growing strongly. Thailand has yet to produce a unicorn (start-up valued more than $1bn). Funding in the tech sector is the lowest among the ASEAN-6 countries. Challenges include the lack of human capital in the tech sector and a ECONOMICS burdensome tax system. E-Commerce and Digital Payments Still at Early Stage E-commerce penetration rate remains small at only 2% of total retail sales, below most of ASEAN including Singapore (8.3%), Malaysia (3.8%) and Indonesia (2.8%). Online sales are growing at a double-digit rate, while same store sales growth for retail giants, including Robinson and Central Group, have been sluggish over the past 3 years. Lazada (owned by Alibaba) is the dominant Regional player in Thailand’s e-commerce, resulting in surging consumer goods imports from China. E-commerce is lowering prices of consumer goods such as clothes, footwear and furniture. The e-commerce tax bill requiring foreign online platforms to collect VAT for sales in Thailand is still pending approval from the new government. Social commerce (via Facebook, Line) is an important aspect, accounting for 20% of total e-commerce transactions. The government’s launch of PromptPay in 2017 is driving the push towards cashless payments. Ride Hailing & Home Sharing: ‘Illegal’ But Flourishing Thailand is the only ASEAN-6 economy yet to legalize ride hailing, but Grab and Go-Jek (through affiliate GET) are thriving. The ride hailing and food delivery market size has more than tripled to $1.3bn in 2019 from $0.4bn in 2015. The new government is expected to legalize the industry by March 2020, which could solidify the players’ positions. Incumbents have invested in and partnered with Grab (Kasikorn Bank, Central Group) and GET (Siam Commercial Bank) to widen their customer base through these platforms. Home sharing is also gaining popularity as Chinese tourists shift from group to independent travel. Disruption to the hotel industry is minimal at this stage, with Airbnb guests accounting for only 3.3% of total visitors (or 1.2mn) in 2017. Hard ‘Pexit’ (Postal Exit) Avoided & VC Funding Slows The latest Universal Postal Union vote in Sep, triggered by the US announcement in Oct-18 to exit the union, resulted in a ‘compromise’ option. The US will remain in the union on two conditions: 1) US can apply self- declared rates (on a reciprocal basis) starting July 2020; and 2) contribute $40mn annually to the union’s fund. Estimates of a potential postal hike ranges from +125% to +600%, which could raise delivery costs significantly. Venture financing in Asia remained weak in 3Q19 with the absence of mega deals above $1bn and a slowing China. Top deals globally in 3Q19 included US’ Juul ($785mn), China’s NetEase Cloud Music ($700mn) and Didi Chuxing ($600mn). THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK KIM ENG RESEARCH SEE PAGE 23 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Economics Research Thailand’s Digital Revolution In Disruption Watch #7, we focus on [1] Thailand’s digital economy (e- commerce, ride hailing, home sharing); [2] the outcome of the Universal Postal Union vote in Sep; and [3] the slump in Asia’s venture capital funding in the third quarter. Thailand’s internet economy is growing at a healthy clip, rising from just $6bn in 2015 to $16bn in 2019 (+29% CAGR). It is expected to hit $50bn by 2025, based on the e-Conomy SEA 2019 report by Google, Temasek and Bain & Company. The online travel sector ($7bn in 2019) is the dominant component as Thailand has the biggest tourism economy in ASEAN (see Fig 1). The star performer is however the e-commerce sector ($5bn in 2019), which grew by an astounding +54% CAGR over the past 4 years. Online media (+39%) is growing strongly given the high social media connection. The ride hailing sector (which includes transport & food delivery) is still small at $1bn as of 2019, but is expected to grow by 5 times the size by 2025. Figure 1: Thailand’s Internet Economy Growing Rapidly, with Fastest Growth in E-Commerce Thailand Internet Economy (GMV, $bn) $ bn 2015 2019 2025 25 '15-'19: +54% '15-'19: +17% '15-'25: +35% '15-'25: +18% 20 20 18 15 '15-'19: +39% '15-'19: +36% '15-'25: +24% '15-'25: +30% 10 7 7 5 5 3.9 5 3 0.9 0.8 0.4 1 0 E-commerce Online Travel Online Media Ride Hailing Source: e-Conomy SEA 2019 Report (Google, Temasek, Bain & Company) The vision of a digital economy has been taking shape over the past few years. In 2016, the military government introduced a new economic initiative ‘Thailand 4.0’, to revolutionize industries through digitalization and lift the country from the middle-income trap in 5 years. Digitalization would bring the economy a step forward from the current era of ‘Thailand 3.0’ (see Fig 2), which is driven by heavy industries such as oil & gas, petrochemicals and steel (largely for exports). Ten industries were identified to propel Thailand to developed nation status, which were divided into two categories – the First S-Curve and New S-Curve (see Fig 3). The S-Curve refers to 5 existing industry groups which have high potential and able to develop by adding value through advanced technologies. The 5 New S-Curve industries – which include the digital economy - are expected to be significant long-term growth drivers. Two more industries – defense technology and educational technology - were added to the list in 2018. Besides that, major projects such as True Digital Park (co-working and office zone for tech sector, hosting development labs such as Google Academy) and Thailand Cyberport (a business park and incubator) are part of the ‘Thailand 4.0’ initiative. October 31, 2019 2 Economics Research Figure 2: New Economic Model – Stepping Up to ‘Thailand 4.0’ Figure 3: Ten Target Industries – First S-Curve and New S- Curve Source: Board of Investment Source: Board of Investment Thailand still lags behind in digital adoption compared to its regional peers, despite the government’s ambitions. Based on the Digital Evolution Index (DEI) 20171, Thailand falls under the “Watch Out” zone, which refers to countries with low state of digitalization and low momentum (see Table 1). In comparison, most of the ASEAN-6 countries including Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam, are in the “Break Out” zone with rapid progress in digitalization (see Fig 4). Adoption of digitalization by SMEs is still low. Accounting for 42% of GDP and 79% of employment, SMEs are still underequipped with digitalization skills. Thailand ranked 11th out of 14 countries in Asia Pacific in terms of digital readiness, based on a recent study by Cisco Systems2. Top challenges cited by the SMEs were lack of talent (18%), lack of insight into operations or consumer data (18%), and lack of a robust IT platform (10%). Table 1: Digital Evolution Index: Thailand in “Watch Out” Category Category Description Asian Countries Highly digitally advanced and exhibit high momentum. Leaders in driving innovation, Stand Out Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan building on their existing advantages in efficient and effective ways. Enjoy a high state of digital advancement while Stall Out South Korea exhibiting slowing momentum Malaysia, Indonesia, Low-scoring in their current states of Break Out Philippines, Vietnam, India, digitalization but are evolving rapidly Bangladesh Watch Out Low state of digitalization and low momentum Thailand, Pakistan Source: Harvard Business Review, Digital Evolution Index 2017, The Fletcher School at Tufts University and Mastercard 1 The DEI is derived from about 170 indicators across 4 broad categories, which include supply conditions (infrastructure), demand conditions (how digitally engaged consumers are), institutional environment (IP rights), and innovation and change. 2 Bangkok Post, “Thai SME digital readiness third in region”, 8 May 2019. October 31, 2019 3 Economics Research Figure 4: Thailand Lags Behind ASEAN Peers, Falling in the ‘Watch Out’ Category masterc Source: Harvard Business Review, Digital Evolution Index 2017, The Fletcher School at Tufts University and Mastercard Thailand is one of the laggards in 5G development in the region, partly due to the telecom firms’ reluctance to invest and develop 5G given expectations that demand for the service will be insufficient to justify the expensive infrastructure (estimated at Bt100bn or US$3bn). In April 2019, the government issued an order granting loan extensions to the three major telecom operators (Advanced Info Service, True Corp and DTAC) in exchange for joining the bid for the 5G spectrum auction, with winners obligated to begin 5G development by 20203. The debut auction of 5G spectrum will take place in Feb 2020, and 5G adoption is expected only in late 20214 (see Thailand Telcos – Plus 10MHz? Won’t Do Much!, 21 Jun 2019). Meanwhile, Singapore and Malaysia plan to have 5G running in 2020. 5G adoption will depend on the country’s digital readiness, an area that requires some catching up. Thailand ranked just 40th place (out of 63) in the 2019 IMD world digital competitiveness ranking, which assesses factors such an economy’s ability to develop new digital innovations and preparedness for fresh developments.
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