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Fintech in Emerging ASEAN Trends and Prospects

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Fintech in Emerging ASEAN Trends and Prospects Fintech in Emerging ASEAN Trends and Prospects June 2017 ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 Fintech trends in emerging ASEAN • Growth of emerging ASEAN, chiefly Indonesia & Philippines, is underpinned by improving demographic dividend and rapid urbanization. • ASEAN banks benefit from adequate capital buffers and manageable asset quality concerns. ASEAN banks profitability trends are stabilizing post contraction over the past three years. • ASEAN still in the nascent stage of evolution of digital banking. Parabolic growth in mobile and internet banking platforms in ASEAN is hindered by lack of trust in sharing information online • Singapore based fintech companies continue to dominate the ASEAN fintech landscape, followed by Thailand and Indonesia. • Our media digital sentiment index reveals ASEAN not a monolithic block, significant variations across devices, networks and applications in digital landscape. • Concerted efforts underway by ASEAN banks to indigenize digital banking. Margin compression has led ASEAN banks to refocus on fee-income, chiefly e-banking related. ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 Fintech trends in emerging ASEAN (Contd.) • Payment and Mobile wallet lead fintech offerings in emerging ASEAN, followed by financial comparison services and retail investments. • Fintech is still in its incipient stage in emerging ASEAN, but it is rapidly expanding with more companies securing funding from onshore and offshore sources. • Limited number of fintech companies in the core technology space, such as Blockchain, Artificial Intelligence and Biometric, makes such fintech startups more attractive to investors. • ASEAN countries are establishing their own national regulatory sandbox, which enables regulators to monitor and foster the development of Fintech industry in their respective countries. • Mandates to work with regulators or banks, limits ASEAN Fintech firms in scaling up and expanding outside their home countries. • The entry of China’s Fintech behemoth, Ant Financial into ASEAN has posed a key challenge for fintech startups to adapt themselves quickly or perish. ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 ASEAN Macro & Banking Trends ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 Philippines leads emerging ASEAN growth Annual GDP growth 2017-21 average Emerging ASEAN GDP Growth (%) (% YoY) (% y/y) (% y/y) 8.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Emerging ASEAN : GDP growth, 2017-21 average (%) 2012-16 2017 2018-22 5 Source: BBVA Research, Bloomberg ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 Credit growth across emerging ASEAN has likely bottomed out Domestic private sector credit to GDP Credit growth (% of GDP) (% y/y) 180 30 Post Crisis Period 160 25 140 120 20 100 15 80 60 10 40 5 20 0 0 Dec-06 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Singapore Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Thailand Philippines Vietnam 2H15 1H16 2H16 1Q17 Annual Real GDP Growth in 1Q17 6 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2017 ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 ASEAN banks benefit from adequate capital buffers and manageable asset quality concerns Capital Ratios across banks in Non-performing Loans to Total ASEAN during Q1 2017 Assets Ratio (%) (%) 25 3.5 3.0 20 2.5 15 2.0 1.5 10 1.0 5 Basel III Global Average Basel III threshold at 0.5 at around threshold at 10% 6.8% 7.5% 0 0.0 Shareholder's Equity Tier 1 Ratio Capital Adequacy Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Philippines to Total Assets Ratio Singapore Malaysia Indonesia 2H15 1H16 2H16 1Q17 NPA To Total Assets Ratio (%) Thailand Philippines Vietnam 7 Source: BBVA Research, Bloomberg ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 ASEAN banks profitability trends are stabilizing post contraction over the past three years amid economic slowdown Return on Assets across banks in Net Interest Margins across banks in ASEAN during Q1 2017 ASEAN during Q1 2017 (%) (%) 3.0 8.0 7.0 2.5 6.0 2.0 5.0 1.5 4.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 Vietnam Vietnam Thailand Thailand Malaysia Malaysia Indonesia Indonesia Singapore Singapore Philippines Philippines 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1Q17 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1Q17 8 Source: BBVA Research, Bloomberg ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 Emerging ASEAN, chiefly Indonesia & Philippines, benefit from improving demographic dividend & rapid urbanization Population ages 15-64 as % of total Share of urban population to total (%) (%) Population ages 15-64 as percentage of total % Share of urban population to total population 74 90 72 80 70 70 68 60 66 50 64 40 62 30 60 58 20 56 10 54 0 India India China China Vietnam Vietnam Thailand Pakistan Thailand Malaysia Mongolia Lao PDR Myanmar Sri Lanka Indonesia Indonesia Cambodia Philippines Philippines Bangladesh Korea, Rep. 2016 2030 2016 2030 9 Source: BBVA Research, Bloomberg ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 Indonesia shines in Moody’s ASEAN Banking System Outlook Overall Operating Funding & Profitability & Government Economy outlook Environment Asset Quality Capital Liquidity Efficiency Support Indonesia Stable Positive Positive Stable Stable Positive Positive Malaysia Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Philippines Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Vietnam Stable Stable Stable Deteriorating Stable Stable Stable Thailand Stable Stable Deteriorating Deteriorating Stable Stable Stable 10 Source: BBVA Research, Moody’s Investor Service ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 ASEAN’s Digital Banking Landscape – A bird’s eyeview ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 Relative comparison of digital landscape across ASEAN Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Population (mn) 258 30.2 100.1 5.5 62.2 92.5 Online Population (mn) 93.4 21.4 42.0 4.1 21.1 44.7 % of Population Online 36% 70.9% 46.5% 74.5% 33.9% 48.3% Broadband Subscriptions 17.1 10 4.8 26.4 9.2 8.1 (per 100 inhabitants) Bank Account Penetration 36% 81% 28% 96.3% 78% 30.8% Credit Card Penetration 1.6% 20.2% 3.2% 35.4% 5.5% 1.9% Smartphone Penetration 24.0% 35.0% 15.0% 85.0% 37.7% 36.0% Paying Gamers in million 19.9 6.6 11 1.1 8.3 12..3 12 *Data as of 2016, Source: BBVA Research, Moody’s Investor Service, Focus Economics ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 ASEAN still in the nascent stage of evolution of digital banking ASEAN makes up less than 1% of Share of internet users & digital global retail e-commerce market buyers to total population is relatively low in ASEAN 450 35% 1600 400 1400 30% 350 1200 25% 300 1000 20% 250 800 200 15% 600 150 10% 400 100 200 5% 50 0 0 0% US EU China Japan ASEAN US EU China Japan ASEAN Inhabitants (million) Internet Users (million) Value (US$ billion) Share (RHS, %) Digital Buyers (million) 13 Source: BBVA Research, Bloomberg ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 Parabolic growth in mobile and internet banking platforms in ASEAN is hindered by lack of trust in sharing information online Payment methods breakdown ASEAN digital buyers are reluctant to across APAC share their financial information online 40% 80% 35% 70% 30% 60% 25% 50% 20% 40% 15% 30% 10% 20% 5% 0% 10% 0% Other PrePay eWallet PostPay Debit Card Credit Card Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Charge Card indonesia Bank Transfer Singapore Pre-Paid Card Philippines Cash on Delivery % of ASEAN digital buyers reluctant to share their financial Asia Pacific 2014 Asia Pacific 2019F Globally in 2019 information online 14 Source: BBVA Research, Bloomberg, A.T. Kearney ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 Density of ASEAN Fintech industry by Category Payment/Mobile Wallet 4% 1% 1% 4% Financial Comparison 5% Retail Investment Bitcoin/Blockchain 8% 43% Financial Lending Financial/Business Tools 8% Account Software Personal Finance Investment Research 11% Insurance 15% Source: BBVA Research, Techsauce Online Payments & Mobile wallets dominate ASEAN fintech industry, followed by financial comparison and retail investment 15 ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 Singapore based fintech companies continue to dominate the ASEAN fintech landscape, followed by Thailand & Indonesia 8% Philippines Thailand 43% 19% indonesia Vietnam Malaysia 13% Singapore 11% 6% Source: BBVA Research, Techsauce The top Singapore based fintech companies with ASEAN presence include payments provider 2C2P, Fastacash, CODAPAY & CoinPip, Blockchain platform BITX, Lending platform CROWDO, & financial metasearch site gobear 16 ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 Lack of policy harmonization across ASEAN economies undermines support to the digital economy Region-wide E-ASEAN framework consists of high-level guidelines but no defined actions digital vision Limited ranking and tracking to evaluate progress Consumer Only Malaysia, Singapore and Philippines have privacy laws in place Protection Development Limited ASEAN-wide initiatives to create regional mobile payment system of E-Com Current initiatives are limited to traditional payment systems Digital Public No monitoring or ranking mechanism to ascertain progress in digital Services public services Source: BBVA Research, A.T. Kearney Analysis In ASEAN, the policy enablers for a digital economy have lagged those in other regional blocks such as the European Union 17 ASEAN Fintech Trends 2017 ASEAN not a monolithic block, significant variations across devices, networks and applications in digital landscape Devices Network Applications Mobile Market Spectrum Govt use of Regulatory Digital Broadband Smartphone Competitiveness availability internet environment literacy penetration penetration Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Outperforming Above
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